中国农作物保险效果评估及相关政策改善研究
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摘要
效果评估是风险管理流程中十分重要的一环，通过效果评估既可以对拟定的风险管理政策进行检验，又能为风险管理政策的进一步完善提供依据。农业保险的效果评估和模拟在美国农业保险方案的完善过程中起到了十分重要的作用，而这项工作在我国却十分滞后，虽然2007年以来我国政策性农业保险获得了巨大的发展，但实务中至今尚未开展全面、深入的效果评估工作。因此，在我国农业保险一方面蓬勃发展、一方面经营粗放、许多深层次问题亟待解决的背景下，我国农业保险效果到底如何？如何进行评估？应该如何完善成为社会各界关注、争论和研究的热点，但学界在这方面的研究还远远不够。
基于此，为夯实学界在此方面的研究、为实务工作提供理论方法指导，本文在福利经济学理论、农业经济学理论、风险管理理论的指导下，首先对农作物保险效果进行了理论分析，从目标、实施主体、作用客体三个维度对农作物保险效果的内涵和作用机理进行了剖析；其次，对保险效果的外在表现、度量指标及影响因素进行分析，在对效果评估已有方法进行评述的基础上，提出了基于农户效用等值和数值模拟技术的农作物保险效果评估方法；然后，以河北、河南等10个省份1004个农户为例，借助数理统计软件MATLAB、统计软件STATA和专业风险分析软件SIMETAR对我国现行农作物保险的实施效果进行定量评估；最后对保额、保费、保险产品、政府补贴比例等农作物保险效果各影响因素的变动效果进行了模拟仿真，提出了完善我国农作物保险方案具体和有针对性的政策建议。
根据理论分析和实证模拟结果，本文得出了如下结论：1）从农户视角评估农作物保险效果较为合适，作物保险效果可以利用农民效用确定性等值进行度量，利用数值模拟技术进行评估；2）我国现行农作物保险确实增加了农民福利水平，对粮食大省的贡献要高于其它省份，但改变保费补贴资金的使用方式（如本文中假定直接补贴给农民）可以发挥更大的作用，因此亟待完善；3）以县为单位精算费率能够显著提升农作物保险效果（10个省份中有7个会因精算费率而受益）；4）保额提高在政府补贴超过一定比例后会增加农民农业保险福利，保持农民福利不变则可以适度降低政府补贴比例；5）50%及以上的平均保费补贴比例是我国农作物保险顺利开展的前提；6）在政府保费补贴一定的情况下保持高补贴比例更为重要；7）区域指数保险+个体保险补充的组合保险效果良好，该思路值得推广试点。
本论文的创新之处主要体现在：第一，在农作物保险效果评估的视角和方法方面具有一定创新性，较为系统的构建了农作物保险效果评估的理论分析框架，首次提出并运用数值模拟技术对我国农作物保险方案的实施效果进行了定量评估，并对我国农作物保险几种优化方案的效果进行了模拟，提出了切实可行的优化方案；第二，农作物生产风险评估评估是农作物保险费率厘定的关键环节和重要基础，以往评估方法存在低估风险或无法具体到作物的缺陷，本文根据我国数据资源特点，在国内外首次提出了基于数据融合的评估方法，克服了传统评估方法的不足；第三，首次提出了我国农作物保险可能的产品创新形式：组合保险。
In the process of risk management an important step is the effect evaluation which not only can test theeffect of proposed risk management policy but also will provide solid suggestions for the futureimprovement. Effect evaluation and simulation had played a vital step in the finalizing of America’agricultural insurance program, but it is lagged in China in spite of the rapid development of Chineseagricultural insurance since2007. Therefore, the question of valuing Chinese crop insurance has beenput forward, and recently the effect evaluation of Chinese crop insurance program has become thehighlights in China, but the academic community needs to contribute more.
Based on this, in order to reinforce the academic research in this area and to provide the theoreticalguidance for the practical work, I had conducted the research on four aspects in this dissertation with thesupport of welfare economics, agricultural economics and the theory of risk management. Firstly I hadanalyze the connotation and implement mechanism of crop insurance effect in principle, secondly thenthe measure and approach to evaluate the effect of crop insurance program had been discussed and thesimulation approach of farmers’ certainty equivalent with crop insurance has been proposed, and thenthe effect of Chinese crop insurance program has been evaluated based on the the micro-level datasetscoming from1004individual farmers of10provinces using the software of MATLAB, STATA andSIMETAR. Finally the potential effect of increasing insured value, actuarial ratemaking, alternativesubsidy and other improvements of current crop insurance had been analyzed and the specific andtargeted suggestions were made for the policymakers to perfecting Chinese crop insurance program.
After the empirical study, we had made the following conclusions. a) It is appropriated to evaluate theeffect of crop insurance program in the view of farmer’s utility using the simulation approach; b)Current crop insurance program in China has increased farmers’welfare but still need to be improved toachieve the Pareto improvement; c) Making actuarial premium by county is necessary because there arehuge difference between the current premium and the actuarial one and it will improve farmer’s welfarein7out of10provinces; d) Increasing insured value will improve farmer’s welfare provided that thepremium subsidy ratio is above the required level, and will make government pay less keeping farmer’swelfare constant; e) More than50%of crop insurance premium should be subsidized by the governmentto motivate more farmers participate in the program; f) When the fund of premium subsidy is fixed,keeping high subsidy is more important than increasing the insured value; g) Combining area yieldinsurance with individual insurance will have good effect and worth to be piloted in China.
The contributions of this dissertation are the innovations in terms of the perspective and approach ofcrop insurance effect. I also develop a new approach to assess crop yield risk based on data integration,and proposed a new kind of crop insurance production-combined insurance in this thesis.
基于此，为夯实学界在此方面的研究、为实务工作提供理论方法指导，本文在福利经济学理论、农业经济学理论、风险管理理论的指导下，首先对农作物保险效果进行了理论分析，从目标、实施主体、作用客体三个维度对农作物保险效果的内涵和作用机理进行了剖析；其次，对保险效果的外在表现、度量指标及影响因素进行分析，在对效果评估已有方法进行评述的基础上，提出了基于农户效用等值和数值模拟技术的农作物保险效果评估方法；然后，以河北、河南等10个省份1004个农户为例，借助数理统计软件MATLAB、统计软件STATA和专业风险分析软件SIMETAR对我国现行农作物保险的实施效果进行定量评估；最后对保额、保费、保险产品、政府补贴比例等农作物保险效果各影响因素的变动效果进行了模拟仿真，提出了完善我国农作物保险方案具体和有针对性的政策建议。
根据理论分析和实证模拟结果，本文得出了如下结论：1）从农户视角评估农作物保险效果较为合适，作物保险效果可以利用农民效用确定性等值进行度量，利用数值模拟技术进行评估；2）我国现行农作物保险确实增加了农民福利水平，对粮食大省的贡献要高于其它省份，但改变保费补贴资金的使用方式（如本文中假定直接补贴给农民）可以发挥更大的作用，因此亟待完善；3）以县为单位精算费率能够显著提升农作物保险效果（10个省份中有7个会因精算费率而受益）；4）保额提高在政府补贴超过一定比例后会增加农民农业保险福利，保持农民福利不变则可以适度降低政府补贴比例；5）50%及以上的平均保费补贴比例是我国农作物保险顺利开展的前提；6）在政府保费补贴一定的情况下保持高补贴比例更为重要；7）区域指数保险+个体保险补充的组合保险效果良好，该思路值得推广试点。
本论文的创新之处主要体现在：第一，在农作物保险效果评估的视角和方法方面具有一定创新性，较为系统的构建了农作物保险效果评估的理论分析框架，首次提出并运用数值模拟技术对我国农作物保险方案的实施效果进行了定量评估，并对我国农作物保险几种优化方案的效果进行了模拟，提出了切实可行的优化方案；第二，农作物生产风险评估评估是农作物保险费率厘定的关键环节和重要基础，以往评估方法存在低估风险或无法具体到作物的缺陷，本文根据我国数据资源特点，在国内外首次提出了基于数据融合的评估方法，克服了传统评估方法的不足；第三，首次提出了我国农作物保险可能的产品创新形式：组合保险。
In the process of risk management an important step is the effect evaluation which not only can test theeffect of proposed risk management policy but also will provide solid suggestions for the futureimprovement. Effect evaluation and simulation had played a vital step in the finalizing of America’agricultural insurance program, but it is lagged in China in spite of the rapid development of Chineseagricultural insurance since2007. Therefore, the question of valuing Chinese crop insurance has beenput forward, and recently the effect evaluation of Chinese crop insurance program has become thehighlights in China, but the academic community needs to contribute more.
Based on this, in order to reinforce the academic research in this area and to provide the theoreticalguidance for the practical work, I had conducted the research on four aspects in this dissertation with thesupport of welfare economics, agricultural economics and the theory of risk management. Firstly I hadanalyze the connotation and implement mechanism of crop insurance effect in principle, secondly thenthe measure and approach to evaluate the effect of crop insurance program had been discussed and thesimulation approach of farmers’ certainty equivalent with crop insurance has been proposed, and thenthe effect of Chinese crop insurance program has been evaluated based on the the micro-level datasetscoming from1004individual farmers of10provinces using the software of MATLAB, STATA andSIMETAR. Finally the potential effect of increasing insured value, actuarial ratemaking, alternativesubsidy and other improvements of current crop insurance had been analyzed and the specific andtargeted suggestions were made for the policymakers to perfecting Chinese crop insurance program.
After the empirical study, we had made the following conclusions. a) It is appropriated to evaluate theeffect of crop insurance program in the view of farmer’s utility using the simulation approach; b)Current crop insurance program in China has increased farmers’welfare but still need to be improved toachieve the Pareto improvement; c) Making actuarial premium by county is necessary because there arehuge difference between the current premium and the actuarial one and it will improve farmer’s welfarein7out of10provinces; d) Increasing insured value will improve farmer’s welfare provided that thepremium subsidy ratio is above the required level, and will make government pay less keeping farmer’swelfare constant; e) More than50%of crop insurance premium should be subsidized by the governmentto motivate more farmers participate in the program; f) When the fund of premium subsidy is fixed,keeping high subsidy is more important than increasing the insured value; g) Combining area yieldinsurance with individual insurance will have good effect and worth to be piloted in China.
The contributions of this dissertation are the innovations in terms of the perspective and approach ofcrop insurance effect. I also develop a new approach to assess crop yield risk based on data integration,and proposed a new kind of crop insurance production-combined insurance in this thesis.
引文
1保监会.周延礼副主席在全国农业保险工作会议上讲话.http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site0/tab40/i200648.htm
2中国经济网，人保财险农业保险产品超过500个，http://finance.ce.cn/rolling/201308/05/t20130805_1119725.shtml
3远安县财政与编制政务信息网http://www.hbcz.gov.cn/420525/lm1/lm2/lm22/lm2210/2013-12-17-9229093.shtml
4人民日报，2013年9月30日02版，这回农险真赔了http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2013-09/30/nw.D110000renmrb_20130930_4-02.htm
5庹国柱：别再让中西部市县补贴农业保费，中国保险报2014-1-20
11中国经济网，人保财险农业保险产品超过500个，http://finance.ce.cn/rolling/201308/05/t20130805_1119725.shtml
13农村固定观察点调查系统简介，http://www.rcre.moa.gov.cn/gcdgzdt/gzdtg/201302/t20130225_3225848.htm
16感谢安华农业保险公司精算部姜家祥经理给笔者提供的《吉林省吉林省农作物种植成本保险条款》
17感谢河南中原农业保险公司总精算师王韧先生提供的《河南省小麦（水稻）政策性保险条款》
18如前文所述，本文使用绝对风险厌恶系数（Constant Relative RiskAversion, CRRA）作为衡量农民风险厌恶程度的指标
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2中国经济网，人保财险农业保险产品超过500个，http://finance.ce.cn/rolling/201308/05/t20130805_1119725.shtml
3远安县财政与编制政务信息网http://www.hbcz.gov.cn/420525/lm1/lm2/lm22/lm2210/2013-12-17-9229093.shtml
4人民日报，2013年9月30日02版，这回农险真赔了http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2013-09/30/nw.D110000renmrb_20130930_4-02.htm
5庹国柱：别再让中西部市县补贴农业保费，中国保险报2014-1-20
11中国经济网，人保财险农业保险产品超过500个，http://finance.ce.cn/rolling/201308/05/t20130805_1119725.shtml
13农村固定观察点调查系统简介，http://www.rcre.moa.gov.cn/gcdgzdt/gzdtg/201302/t20130225_3225848.htm
16感谢安华农业保险公司精算部姜家祥经理给笔者提供的《吉林省吉林省农作物种植成本保险条款》
17感谢河南中原农业保险公司总精算师王韧先生提供的《河南省小麦（水稻）政策性保险条款》
18如前文所述，本文使用绝对风险厌恶系数（Constant Relative RiskAversion, CRRA）作为衡量农民风险厌恶程度的指标
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