我国经济发展与环境污染关系的实证分析
摘要
新中国成立已经60周年,改革开放至今也有31年了,我国在经济、政治、文化和社会建设等各个方面取得了举世瞩目的成就,但是也面临许多严重的问题,其中环境污染乃是最重要的问题之一。我国长期以高资源消耗、高环境污染的粗放型方式实现经济增长,经济发展与环境的矛盾突出,可持续发展面临严峻的挑战。经济发展与环境之间的关系研究目前是理论界研究的热点之一,其中又以关于环境库兹涅茨假说(EKC)的研究为最。但是张学刚(2009)指出,EKC研究存在多方面的缺陷,缺乏对经济与环境关系形成机制的深入剖析。同时笔者注意到在追求经济利益(GDP)的同时,尽量减少污染物的排放,即环境效率的提高是倒U假说得以实现的基本前提。因此,本文进一步从投入和产出的角度研究了各省(市、自治区)的环境效率,并对环境效率的影响因素进行了分析。
本文共分为5章：第一章为引言,首先分析了英国和美国自工业革命以来的经济发展和环境污染情况,英美两国经历了“先污染,后治理”的过程,结合需求层次理论指出在工业化和城市化的初期环境污染加重是一种带有普遍性的现象,有其必然的一面,这也是EKC假说得以成立的现实背景。在此基础上回顾了我国改革开放以来的情况,我国在取得快速经济成长的同时,资源消耗和环境污染问题也相当严重,产业结构层次较低,经济发展效率不高。最后引出本文的研究意义,以及研究思路。
第二章是理论及文献综述部分。首先对现代经济增长理论的发展历程进行了梳理,并对重点模型进行了简略的推导和说明。然后从EKC的来源与含义、EKC的经济解释、EKC解释模型、国内外学者关于EKC的经验研究等几个部分对EKC理论进行了文献综述。最后对生产率和效率理论的已有研究进行了说明和梳理。重点介绍了DEA分析中的CRS及VRS模型。
第三章用我国2003-2007年分省数据对污染排放水平与经济发展水平的关系进行了较为详尽的实证分析。本文借鉴EKC已有研究的一些成果,引入新的方法进行EKC实证研究,并对倒U关系的成因作了新的解释。将各地区按人均GDP分组,并对各组的污染排放指标分析发现,中等水平组的污染排放量明显高于低水平组和高水平组,并且各组污染指标均值的差异在统计上是显著的。面板回归分析表明,加入控制变量后污染得分与人均GDP的关系仍为倒U型关系,但是拐点受控制变量选择的影响较大。实证发现人力资本存量对污染得分有负影响。经济增长导致人力资本存量的提高,从而有助于减少环境污染。
第四章用DEA方法计算了各省(市、自治区)的环境效率,并对环境效率的影响因素进行了分析。从规模不变环境效率值来看,东部地区的平均值最高,中部地区次之,西部地区最低。从各地区内部的效率值差异程度来看,西部地区差异最大,这主要反映为西南地区和西北地区的差异,西北地区的环境效率高于西南地区。产业结构和贸易开放程度是环境效率值的主要影响因素。第二产业及第三产业的比重越高,环境效率得分越低。按境内目的地和货源地分货物进出口总额与国内生产总值之比与环境效率得分负相关。这说明我国在承接国际产业转移的同时,也承接了污染物的转移。
第五章是结论部分,主要介绍本文的结论,创新及贡献,不足之处和后续研究的思考。
The people's republic of China has been established for 60 years and the reform and opening up until now has 31 years, China's economic, political, cultural and social construction, all made great achievements, but it also faces many serious problems, among which environmental pollution is one of the most important.
This paper is divided into five chapters:the first chapter is introduction. We first analyze the situation of the economic development and environmental pollution of the United Kingdom and the United States since the industrial revolution, both these two countries experienced a "pollution first, treatment later" process. According to Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs Theory, in the early stages of industrialization and urbanization, increased environmental pollution is a kind of a universal phenomenon, has a rational side. This is the backgrounds of EKC hypothesis to be established. Then we summed up the experience of China's reform and opening up:China has achieved rapid economic growth as well as great resource consumption and environmental pollution, the industrial structure is low and economic development is inefficient. Finally we go to the meaning and the designation of this study.
ChapterⅡis the theory and literature review. First, we carry out the developing process of the modern theory of economic growth, and do a briefly the derivation and description to the focus models. Then we review the EKC literature from the meaning, economic interpretation, explaining model and domestic and foreign empirical studies of EKC. Finally, we review the theory of productivity and efficiency and focuses on the CRS and VRS model.
In ChapterⅢwe do a more detailed empirical analysis of the relationship between the level of economic development and pollution levels based on the 2003-2007 data. This paper introduces some new method to EKC empirical studies, and gives a new interpretation of the causes of inverted U relationship. All regions are grouped according to per capita GDP, and we found that pollution emissions of moderate levels of groups are significantly higher than that of low group and high group, and these differences are statistically significant. Panel regression analysis shows that after added the control variable the relationship between pollution score and per capita GDP is still inverted U-type, but the control variables have great impact on the inflection point. This study shows that human capital has a negative impact on pollution scores. Economic growth has led to the improvement of human capital stock, thereby contributing to reduce environmental pollution.
In ChapterⅣwe calculate environmental efficiency of the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) with the DEA method, and analyze the influencing factors of environmental efficiency. From viewpoint of CRS environmental efficiency, the highest is the eastern region, followed by middle region and western region is the lowest. The industrial structure and trade openness are the main influencing factors of environmental efficiency. The higher the proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry is the lower environmental efficiency scores. Open2 is negatively correlated with the environmental efficiency scores. This shows that when our country undertakes the transfer of international industry, we also undertake the transfer of pollutants.
ChapterⅤis Conclusion section, focuses on the conclusions, innovation and contribution, inadequacies of this paper and follow-up study thinking.
本文共分为5章：第一章为引言,首先分析了英国和美国自工业革命以来的经济发展和环境污染情况,英美两国经历了“先污染,后治理”的过程,结合需求层次理论指出在工业化和城市化的初期环境污染加重是一种带有普遍性的现象,有其必然的一面,这也是EKC假说得以成立的现实背景。在此基础上回顾了我国改革开放以来的情况,我国在取得快速经济成长的同时,资源消耗和环境污染问题也相当严重,产业结构层次较低,经济发展效率不高。最后引出本文的研究意义,以及研究思路。
第二章是理论及文献综述部分。首先对现代经济增长理论的发展历程进行了梳理,并对重点模型进行了简略的推导和说明。然后从EKC的来源与含义、EKC的经济解释、EKC解释模型、国内外学者关于EKC的经验研究等几个部分对EKC理论进行了文献综述。最后对生产率和效率理论的已有研究进行了说明和梳理。重点介绍了DEA分析中的CRS及VRS模型。
第三章用我国2003-2007年分省数据对污染排放水平与经济发展水平的关系进行了较为详尽的实证分析。本文借鉴EKC已有研究的一些成果,引入新的方法进行EKC实证研究,并对倒U关系的成因作了新的解释。将各地区按人均GDP分组,并对各组的污染排放指标分析发现,中等水平组的污染排放量明显高于低水平组和高水平组,并且各组污染指标均值的差异在统计上是显著的。面板回归分析表明,加入控制变量后污染得分与人均GDP的关系仍为倒U型关系,但是拐点受控制变量选择的影响较大。实证发现人力资本存量对污染得分有负影响。经济增长导致人力资本存量的提高,从而有助于减少环境污染。
第四章用DEA方法计算了各省(市、自治区)的环境效率,并对环境效率的影响因素进行了分析。从规模不变环境效率值来看,东部地区的平均值最高,中部地区次之,西部地区最低。从各地区内部的效率值差异程度来看,西部地区差异最大,这主要反映为西南地区和西北地区的差异,西北地区的环境效率高于西南地区。产业结构和贸易开放程度是环境效率值的主要影响因素。第二产业及第三产业的比重越高,环境效率得分越低。按境内目的地和货源地分货物进出口总额与国内生产总值之比与环境效率得分负相关。这说明我国在承接国际产业转移的同时,也承接了污染物的转移。
第五章是结论部分,主要介绍本文的结论,创新及贡献,不足之处和后续研究的思考。
The people's republic of China has been established for 60 years and the reform and opening up until now has 31 years, China's economic, political, cultural and social construction, all made great achievements, but it also faces many serious problems, among which environmental pollution is one of the most important.
This paper is divided into five chapters:the first chapter is introduction. We first analyze the situation of the economic development and environmental pollution of the United Kingdom and the United States since the industrial revolution, both these two countries experienced a "pollution first, treatment later" process. According to Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs Theory, in the early stages of industrialization and urbanization, increased environmental pollution is a kind of a universal phenomenon, has a rational side. This is the backgrounds of EKC hypothesis to be established. Then we summed up the experience of China's reform and opening up:China has achieved rapid economic growth as well as great resource consumption and environmental pollution, the industrial structure is low and economic development is inefficient. Finally we go to the meaning and the designation of this study.
ChapterⅡis the theory and literature review. First, we carry out the developing process of the modern theory of economic growth, and do a briefly the derivation and description to the focus models. Then we review the EKC literature from the meaning, economic interpretation, explaining model and domestic and foreign empirical studies of EKC. Finally, we review the theory of productivity and efficiency and focuses on the CRS and VRS model.
In ChapterⅢwe do a more detailed empirical analysis of the relationship between the level of economic development and pollution levels based on the 2003-2007 data. This paper introduces some new method to EKC empirical studies, and gives a new interpretation of the causes of inverted U relationship. All regions are grouped according to per capita GDP, and we found that pollution emissions of moderate levels of groups are significantly higher than that of low group and high group, and these differences are statistically significant. Panel regression analysis shows that after added the control variable the relationship between pollution score and per capita GDP is still inverted U-type, but the control variables have great impact on the inflection point. This study shows that human capital has a negative impact on pollution scores. Economic growth has led to the improvement of human capital stock, thereby contributing to reduce environmental pollution.
In ChapterⅣwe calculate environmental efficiency of the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) with the DEA method, and analyze the influencing factors of environmental efficiency. From viewpoint of CRS environmental efficiency, the highest is the eastern region, followed by middle region and western region is the lowest. The industrial structure and trade openness are the main influencing factors of environmental efficiency. The higher the proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry is the lower environmental efficiency scores. Open2 is negatively correlated with the environmental efficiency scores. This shows that when our country undertakes the transfer of international industry, we also undertake the transfer of pollutants.
ChapterⅤis Conclusion section, focuses on the conclusions, innovation and contribution, inadequacies of this paper and follow-up study thinking.
引文
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[2]保尔·芒图.十八世纪产业革命.北京：商务印书馆,1983
[3]姜立杰.美国工业城市环境污染及其治理的历史考察(19世纪70年代-20世纪40年代).东北师范大学2002年4月
[4]王旭.《美国城市史》.中国社会科学出版社2000年版。
[5]张军.中国省际物质资本存量估算1952-2000.经济研究2004.10
[6]Harrod R. An Essay in Dynamic Theory. Economic Journal,1939,49:14-33
[7]Domar E. Capital Expansion Rate of Growth and Employment. Econometrica, 1946,14:137-147
[8]Solow R.A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1):65-94
[9]Swan T. Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation.Economic Record,1956, 32:334-361
[10]Solow R.Technical Change and the aggregate production function.Review of Economics and Statistics,1957,39:213-320
[11]Denison E.Trends in American economic growth,1929-1982.Washington: Brookings Institution,1985
[12]Barro R,Sala-i-Martin X.Covergence across States and Regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,no.1,107-182
[13]Stokey N.Learning by doing and the introduction of new goods. Journal of Political Economy,1988,96(4):701-717
[14]Romer P. Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037
[15]Jones C. R&D-based models of economic growth. Journal of Political Economy,1995a,103:759-784
[16]Uzawa H.Optimum Technical Change in an Aggregative Model of Economic Growth.International Economic Review,1965,6:18-31
[17]Lucas R. On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22(1):3-42
[18]戴维·罗默著,王培根译.《高级宏观经济学》[M]；上海财经大学出版社,2003
[19]王鹏.新经济增长理论与台湾经济增长研究.厦门大学2006
[20]王晓、单良.现代经济增长理论的演进.价值工程2006年第5期
[21]Meadows et al. The Limits to Growth.New York University Books,1972
[22]Grossman Gene, Helpman E. Innovation and Growth in the Global Eeonomy. Cambridge, MA,MIT Press,1991
[23]Grossman G.M. and A.B Kreuger,1995. Eeonomic Growth and the Environment, Quarterly Journal of Economies110(2):353-337
[24]Grossman G.M. and A.B Kreuger,1993. Environmental Impacts of North American Free Trade Agreement, Cambridge, MA,MIT Press
[25]Panayotou,T. Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development[A]. International Labour Office Working Paper for Technology and Employment Programme[C].Geneva,1993.
[26]Copeland B,Taylor M.Trade,growth and the environment.National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 9823,July,2003
[27]Gastaldo S,Ragot L.Sustainable Development through Endogenous Growth Models. INSEE, Unpublished,1996.
[28]Panayotou T. Economic Growth and the Environment.Center for International Development, Harvard University, CID Working Paper No.56,July 2000a
[29]Selden.T.M. and D.Song,1994. Environment Quality and Development:Is There a kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emission? Journal of Environmental Eeonomics and Management,27:147-162
[30]Lopez R. The Environment as a Factor of Produetion:The Effects of Economic Growth and Trade Liberalization. Journal of Environmental Eeonomics and Management,1994,27:163-184
[31]Bovenberg A L, Smulders S A. Transitional impacts of environmental policy in an endogenous growth model. International Eeonomic Review,1999, 37:861-893
[32]Markus Pasche. Technical progress, structural change, and the environmental Kuznets curve. Ecological Economies,2002,42(2):381-389.
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