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卡斯特罗政府时期古美关系研究(1959-2008)
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摘要
卡斯特罗政府时期的古美关系是冷战以来国际舞台上最引人瞩目的双边关系之一,但是对于这一课题国内学术界缺乏系统性、专门性的研究。而系统研究这一问题,不仅有助于深化对古美关系的研究,还有助于理解当前小国与大国不对称对抗的现象。
     本论文运用历史学和国际关系学的相关研究方法,系统介绍了古美关系的历史演进,分析了影响古美关系的多层次因素,并论述了古美关系的发展对古巴和美国的影响。
     正文分为五章:
     第一章,古巴革命与古美“友谊”的破裂。由于地理和资源条件,古巴和美国早在两国作为殖民地时期就开始了贸易交往,且随着美国的独立和强大逐渐扩大。1899年美国取代西班牙“占领”古巴,古巴在经济、政治上成为了美国的附庸。直到1959年古巴民主革命胜利,古巴这样的“历史进程”才被打破。1959年由于卡斯特罗领导古巴进行了激进的、侵犯美国经济利益的国有化改革,古美间产生了矛盾和对抗,随后由于苏联的介入,古美对抗迅速升级,最终演变为政治关系的破裂。
     第二章,卡斯特罗时期古美对抗的阶段性演变。这一章将古美间的对抗分为三个发展阶段。第一阶段,从1961年古美正式断交至1962年古巴导弹危机结束,这一阶段是古美对抗最严峻的历史阶段,从经济、政治上的对抗迅速升级为军事上的对抗。第二阶段,从古巴导弹危机结束后至苏联解体前,这一阶段是冷战时期古美对抗相对缓和的阶段,古、美两国都避免发生正面严峻的对抗,双边关系既在某些方面出现了缓和,也在某些方面加剧了对抗。第三阶段,从冷战结束后至2008年卡斯特罗下台,这一阶段古美关系并未发生实质变化,对抗依然是两国关系发展的主旋律,但由于苏联的消失,古巴不再是美国的战略威胁,双边关系是朝着“潜在缓和”的方向前进。
     第三章,卡斯特罗与古美关系演变。这一章从卡斯特罗的个人层面以及古巴的国家层面分析了影响古美关系发展的古巴因素。在个人层面上,对卡斯特罗关于民主改革、选择社会主义革命、安置苏联导弹、反对新自由主义全球化等影响古美关系的重要理念进行了归纳和分析。在国家层面上,对古巴政府的移民政策、反经济封锁政策、外交政策的演变进行了系统梳理和分析。总之,古巴作为古美对抗中处于弱势的一方,其领导人的政治理念和政府的内外政策虽然对古巴自身的发展和古美关系的发展有重要影响,但决定不了古美关系的发展趋向,并且它们大多数时候是对美国对古巴政策的被动反应。
     第四章,美国因素与美古关系演变。作为古美对抗中的强势一方,美国对古巴的敌视是古美关系恶化的重要因素。美国对古巴的政策长期以来主要受三方面因素的制约:一是冷战时期和后冷战时期美国的全球战略,二是美国总统的政治理念,三是冷战后美国国内利益集团的利益诉求。受这些因素的影响,美国不仅确立了反古巴的立法,还采取了经济制裁、外交孤立、暗杀行动等多种反古巴的行动。
     第五章,影响古美关系演变的其它因素。这一章分别从国家层面、区域层面、民间层面探讨了苏联、拉美地区以及古巴裔美国人社团对古美关系的介入。首先,苏联是冷战时期影响古美关系发展的最重要外界因素,在1962年古巴导弹危机结束前,苏联对古巴的经济、道义援助以及部署导弹的安排促使了古美间对抗快速升级;导弹危机后,美国向苏联作出不入侵古巴的承诺以及苏联对古巴在拉美“输出”革命的不支持,促使古美关系趋向缓和;70年代后,苏联通过把古巴纳入“经互会”将古巴的发展与苏联紧密联系在一起,使得古美关系进入到可预期的缓和阶段。其次,拉美区域力量也一直是影响古美关系发展的重要外部力量。在20世纪70年代以前美国利用对美洲国家组织的掌控权迫使拉美成员国集体对古巴进行经济制裁和外交孤立,但70年代后由于拉美各国民主化进程的加快以及古巴放弃了在拉美“武装输出”革命的战略,美洲国家组织的拉美成员不再支持美国的反古活动。冷战后,拉美左派力量的兴起、政治格局朝多元化的发展趋势,使得各国普遍接受了卡斯特罗政权,并与其在政治、经济上加强了团结与合作。最后,古巴裔美国人社团是影响古美关系尤其是冷战后关系的重要民间因素。冷战后美国一直坚持对古巴的封锁政策与他们的活动有着重要关系。
     总之,卡斯特罗政府时期的古美关系是一场民族利益兼外交政策的不对称对抗。这种对抗在冷战时期主要受苏联因素的制约,冷战结束后主要受美国国内因素的制约;同时其它因素如拉美区域力量和美籍古巴人社团民间力量也始终对古美关系的发展有着重要的影响。最终在这场对抗中,古巴作为弱势的一方,付出了巨大的代价,但政权依旧延续;美国虽然是强势的一方,但也是收益与损失并存。目前可以做出判断的是,古美关系不会在短时间内发生根本转变。但会进一步朝着缓和的大方向前进。
Cuba-United States relations in the Cartro’s Era have become one of the mostintriguing sets of bilateral relations since the Cold War in the international arena.Systematically investigating the issue, on the one hand, deepens the research ofCuba-United States relations; on the other hand, investigating helps understand theunevenly resisting between less powerful states and powerful states.
     In this thesis, methods relating to the study of history and international relationsare adopted to systematically introduce the evolution of Cuba-United States relations,and to analyze the multiple elements that affect these relations. Additionally,discussions about the influence of Cuba-United States relations over both countriesare illustrated.
     The text is divided into five chapters:
     Chapter1: The Cuban Revolution and the rupture of Cuba-United States"friendship". Due to the geography and resources of both states, trade between Cubaand the U.S. can be dated to the colonial times of both countries, and has expandedwith U.S, independence and growth. After the Spanish-United States War in1899, theU.S. replaced Spain as the "occupier" of Cuba. Afterwards, Cuba became a vassal ofthe U.S. in terms of economy and politics. It was not until Cuba’s victory of thedemocratic revolution in1959that such “historical process” in Cuba had been broken.Due to Castro’s radical nationalization reform that violated the economic interests ofthe other country, conflicts and confrontations had already been incurred; plusRussia’s intervention, the situation tensioned rapidly and finally resulted in the ruptureof the political relations.
     Chapter2: The periodic evolution of conflicts between the two countries’governments during the Castro period. This chapter divided the intense relationsbetween Cuba and the U.S in three stages by development. Specifically, the first stagestarted from Cuba breaking off diplomatic relations with the U.S. in1961until1962,the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis. During this time the conflict escalated from aneconomic and political one to a military confrontation. Needless to say, this is the most severe conflict in the two nations’ history. From the end of the Cuban MissileCrisis till before the Soviet Union collapsed is regarded as the second stage. It isremarkable that in some aspects this could be seen as a relative detente of the situationduring the Cold War. Both sides appeared to avoid severe confrontation, yet theconflict intensified over other disputes. The third stage is from the end of the ColdWar to Castro's resignation in2008. Despite the situation remaining essentiallyunchanged, the collapse of the Soviet Union proved that Cuba is no longer a strategicthreat to the U. S. Thus the situation is developing towards a “potential detente”.
     Chapter3: Castro’s influence over the evolution of Cuba-United States relations.In this part, Cuba’s attribution to Cuba-United States relations is analyzed overCastro’s personal level and Cuba’s national level. In terms of Castro’s personalinfluence, his significant notions about democratic reform, socialist revolution,placement of Soviet missiles, and idea that against neoliberal globalization aresummarized and discussed. Over the national terms, evolutions about Cuba’simmigration policy, attitudes against America’s economic blockading, and foreignpolicy are systematically summarized and analyzed. To be brief, Cuba, as thedisadvantaged party in the confrontation, even if its president’s political conceptionsand the government’s domestic and foreign policies have important influence overCuba’s development and Cuba-United States relations, yet they could not determinethe developing trends of those relations, where in general such reactive decisions weremade to fight against the U.S.’s policies towards Cuba.
     Chapter4: The U.S.’s influence over the evolution of Cuba-United Statesrelations. America, as the more powerful party in the confrontation, its hostile attitudehad to a large extent deteriorated Cuba-United States relations. Policies towards Cubahave long been affected by three factors, namely American global strategy before andafter the Cold War, the American president’s political concepts, as well as expatiationsfrom American domestic interest groups after the Cold War. Being influenced by thesefactors, the U.S. has not only established the anti-Cuba legislation, but has also takenother actions against Cuba such as economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation andassassination.
     Chapter5: Other factors influence over the evolution of Cuba-United Statesrelations. This chapter searately from the country level, regional level, civil societyorganizations to explore Soviet Union, Latin American and Cuban-Americancommunity intervention for Cuba-United States relations. First of all, the SovietUnion is the most important external factors influenceing the development ofCuba-United States relations. Before the end of the1962Cuban missile crisis, theSoviet aid to Cuba's economic, moral and the arrangement of the missile upgradeprompted the confrontation between the Cuba-United States relations; After Cubanmissile crisis, the United States made a promise to the Soviet Union not to invadeCuba, and the Soviet Union does not support Cuba to "output" revolution in LatinAmerica, These prompt Cuba-United relations is easing; After1970s, the Sovietunion through absorbing Cuba into the CMEA made Cuba's development closelylinked with the Soviet Union, the Cuba-United States relations entered the stage ofpredictable detente. Second, the Latin America regional force is the important externalforces influenceing the development of Cuba-United States relations. Before the1970s, the U.S. used its control over American states to force those Latin Americanmembers imposing economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation over Cuba. From1970s afterwards, however, because Latin American countries sped up the pace ofdemocracy, and Cuba gave up its “Arms Output” reform’s strategy in Latin America,Latin American members of Organization of American States stopped supporting theU.S.’s anti-Cuba activities. Since the Cold War, the strength of the left in LatinAmerica has been rising, and political patterns tend to be more diversified.Consequently, Castro’s administration was generally accepted by each country, whichstrengthened their solidarity and cooperation in terms of politics and economy. Finally,Cuban American communities’ activities have also been regarded as factors thatinfluence the relations. Especially after the Cold War, they became the importantfactors that influence the U.S. government’s policies towards Cuba. Proofs could befound from America’s hostile policies after the Cold War. Finally, theCuban-American communities are the impact of the important factors of Cuba-UnitedStates relations, especially after the Cold War. After the Cold War, the United States has always insisted on the policy of blockade against Cuba has an importantrelationship with their activities.
     In short, the asymmetry of the Castro government during the history ofCuban-United States relations a national interests and foreign policy confrontation.During the Cold War, Soviet Union was the main factor leading to conflict betweenCuba and the United States. After the end of the Cold War, the domestic factors ofUnited States is the main factor leading to conflict between Cuba and the UnitedStates. The same time, other factors such as the regional power in Latin America andthe Cuban-American Societies non-governmental forces also species of theCuba-United States relations have an important impact. Final, in this confrontation,Cuba, as the weaker party, to pay a heavy price, but the regime still continues,although the United States is a strong one, but it is also the coexistence of gains andlosses. Make the judgment, the Cuba-United States relations are not fundamentalchange in a short period of time, but it will further towards the general direction.
引文
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