我国蔬菜供需平衡研究
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摘要
改革开放30多年来，我国蔬菜产业快速发展，生产规模加大、数量供应丰富、市场交易活跃，国内供应量和出口量均居世界第一，为农业增效、农民增收、扩大出口、社会稳定作出了较大贡献。然而，受制于制度、市场、科技等多方面因素影响，我国蔬菜产业在生产方面存在以农户个体经营的小生产模式为主，生产标准化程度低，产品档次低、品种少；在加工上面存在产加销分离，蔬菜加工利用率低，供应链视角的一条龙生产尚未完全实现；在消费方面由于产销信息不对接出现菜价起伏波动，既有菜贱伤农、消费者难以承受的两难问题，又有全国蔬菜供应量充足但季节性、品种性、区域性、结构性过剩的两难问题；进出口方面，一方面发达国家利用完善的营销体系、多样的绿色壁垒削弱我国农产品出口优势，另一方面，国内蔬菜生产、加工企业缺乏行业自律精神，竞相降价、无序竞争导致产业效益下滑。由此可见，尽管改革开放30多年来中国蔬菜产业发展取得显著成就，但仍在生产、消费、进出口方面存在多重难题，制约我国蔬菜供需平衡问题。基于此，本论文以“我国蔬菜供需平衡研究”为题，从封闭与开放条件入手，通过对我国蔬菜供给、消费、进出口贸易等基本状况的描述，研究当前我国蔬菜供需是否平衡及预测未来供需平衡状况。
在蔬菜生产方面，对生产的现状进行了深入细致的分析，总结了蔬菜的主要生长区域；在蔬菜需求方面，城镇和农村居民的人均蔬菜鲜食量都稳中有升。这主要是由于我国人口的继续增长带来我国蔬菜国内消费的大幅增长。在对外贸易方面，总体上看，我国的蔬菜出口量大于进口量，并且在加入世贸组织后世后我国蔬菜出口的比较优势呈下降趋势。原因在于入世后我国的产业重组不成功，导致之前在国内具有比较优势的产品在日益激烈的国际竞争中优势逐渐消耗殆尽，加上贸易壁垒的存在及发达国家贸易保护的加强，进一步阻碍了我国蔬菜的出口。
在封闭的假设条件下，伴随着我国蔬菜生产历程的变迁，蔬菜供需平衡经历了三次演变；但当前，受生产力持续提升、经济效益刺激、生产技术革新、市场自发调节等因素的影响，我国蔬菜供需供给增速高于需求增速、供需不平衡凸现，且供需不平衡中结构性、季节性、地区性过剩突出；1990年到2009年我国蔬菜处于供过于求的状态，并且多余的供给量有增大的趋势；预测2010年到2020年间，我国蔬菜仍旧供过于求，到2020年供过于求的数量将会达到42686.89万吨。导致供给量剩余增大的主要原因是蔬菜的生产量逐年上升，并且增加幅度较快；而在总需求中占很大比重的鲜食蔬菜的需求在2016年之前虽然将会增加，但增加的幅度没有供给增加得幅度大，并且在2017年到2020年之间鲜食蔬菜总需求增长缓慢，其他类型的需求增加幅度也有限，最终导致了蔬菜的供需失衡。
在开放的条件下，当前国内供给过剩能被强劲的国际市场需求消化，我国供需基本平衡且有需求剩余；1990年到2009年我国蔬菜供需处于基本平衡状态，个别年份出现供不应求的局面，但是供需缺口非常小。预测2010年到2020年，受国内蔬菜生产水平持续提升、国际竞争激励、贸易保护加剧等影响，我国蔬菜供需不平衡将日益凸显且供给过剩逐年突出，到2020年将会有30974.32万吨的蔬菜剩余。将给我国蔬菜产业发展带来一系列不良影响。
研究就保持我国蔬菜供需均衡，在蔬菜供给、需求以及贸易方面，提出建议：通过扩大、创造蔬菜消费需求，保证蔬菜稳定供应及转移过剩，促进出口，调整进口等措施调节我国蔬菜的供需平衡，以达到科学布局我国的蔬菜生产、保障市场周年稳定供应、扩大蔬菜出口的对外贸易以及增强我国蔬菜国际市场竞争力的目的。研究将为增加农民收入、实现资源优化配置、供需对接、政府制定宏观经济政策提供合理的理论依据，为发展我国蔬菜产业和提高中国蔬菜产品的国际竞争力提供决策依据。
Thirty years of reform and opening up, vegetable industry has rapidly developed inChina, with continuously increasing in production scale, supply quantity, active markettransaction. The supply quantity supporting for needs of domestic market and export volumewere ranked first in the world, which have greatly contributed to agricultural synergism,increased income for farmers, expanded export and social stability. However, due to impactsof various factors including policy, market, science and technology etc., the productionascpect of vegetable industry in China has been mostly composed of individual operation byfarmers, which are charaterized by small production scale, low standardizaiton, low gradeproducts and few products varieties. In the aspect of vegetable processing, a severedisconnection between processing and market sale, and a low utilization rate for processinghas been existed, also it has not been completely realized yet in one-step production under theperspective of supply chain. In the aspect of consumption, information block betweenproduction and marketing has led to fluctuation in vegetable price, which may not only casuea tough problem performing in “dish cheap is hurt farming” and “unbearable high price forconsumer”, but also result in another difficulty involving in a conflict in ample vegetablesupply against excessive situation on season, veriety, region and structure. In aspect of importand export, for one thing, the export advantage of agricultural products of our country hasbeen weaken by sound market system and varied green trade barriers of developed country,on the other hand, owing to lack of self-discipline in vegetable production or processingenterprises who make disorderly competition by depreciation between each other, resulting inreduction of industrial benefits. Thus it can be seen, although great achievements have beenmade in the thirty years of reform and opening up, many problems have still been existed insome aspects including production, consumption, import and export, limiting the balance ofsupply and demand. On the basis of considerations described above, this dissertation entitled“Study of balance between supply and demand on vegetable in China” will address the basicstatus of China’s vegetable including supply, consumption, import and export trade underclose and opening conditions, so as to discuss whether there is a balance existed betweensupply and demand, as well as forecast the balance of supply and demand in the future.
This study analyses the vegetables production present situation and summarizes the maingrowing area of vegetables in our country.beginning from the needs of the people forvegetables.Vegetables being an irreplaceable non-staple food in people's daily life, averageper capita consumption of fresh-eat vegetables by urban and rural residents will grow in thestability. The chief reason for this is the continuous growth of our population leads to the therapid growth of the domestic vegetables consumption. In general, in our foreign trade ourcountry export vegetables more than we import and the comparative advantage of ourvegetables export has showed tendency to descend after our accession to the World TradeOrganization (WTO). The reason lies in our unsuccessful industrial reorganization after theaccess to WTO, which leads to the domestic products with comparative advantages beforelosing their advantages gradually and completely in the fierce international competition,andthe trade barrier and the intensified trade protection of developed countries further hinder theexport of vegetables in our country.secondly,this article analyzes the supply-demandequilibrium under close and opening-up situations.
Under the close condition, the supply-demand equilibrium has experienced evolutionthree times with the changes in the progress of production of vegetables in our country.butnow, influenced by the continuous promotion of productivity, stimulation of economicbenefits, technology innovation and the regulation through the market, the growth rate ofvegetables supply is higher than that of vegetables demand in our country, and the imbalancedsupply and demand and the structural,seasonal and regional surplus in which are highlighted.
During the1990to2009, supply of our vegetables exceeded demand,and thesuperfluous supply of our vegetables show an increasing tendency. This paper forecasts thatthe supply of vegetables will exceed the demand as before in our country between2010and2020, and the oversupply of our vegetables will reach426,868,900tons by2020. It is theleading cause of the increasing supply surplus that the production of vegetables will increaseyear by year and will rise rapidly,and the demand on fresh-eat vegetables taking a great partof aggregate demand will increase but slower than the supply of which before2016,and theaggregate demand on fresh-eat vegetables will increase slowly between2017and2020,theincrease of the demand on other vegetables will be limited,too,all this will finally result in theunbalance of supply and demand of our vegetables.
Under the opening up situation, the supply and demand of vegetables are balancedbasically now and there is also a demand surplus in our country as the domestic supplysurplus can be assimilated by the strong demand in the world market.the supply and demandof vegetables were in balance position basically in our country between1990and2009,although in individual years supply fell short of demand,the insufficiency of supply and demand of vegetables was very small.This article forecasts that influenced by the continuousimprovement of the domestic vegetable productions, stimulation of international competitionand trade protectionism getting worse, the imbalanced supply and demand and the supplysurplus of vegetables will become more prominent in our country year by year,and there willbe a surplus of vegetables of309,743,200tons by2020, Which will bring a series of negativeeffect on the development of vegetable industry in our country.Therefore, we should adjustsupply and demand of our vegetables by way of expanding and creating consumption demandon vegetables, ensuring a stable supply of vegetables and a transfer of vegetables surplus,promoting export and adjusting import.
In the aspects of supply, demand and trading of vegetables, we forward related policyadvice about how to maintain the equilibrium of supply and demand in vegetable market, soas to scientifically allocate vegetables production in China, and ensure the stable marketsupply around the year, expand the foreign trade of vegetable products and enhance theinternational market competition of vegetables in China. The study will provide a soundtheoretical basis for realizing income increase of farmer, optimal allocation of resources,supply connection and government macro economic policy making, as well as will providethe decision making basis for developing vegetable industry and enhancing internationalcompetitiveness of vegetable products in China.
在蔬菜生产方面，对生产的现状进行了深入细致的分析，总结了蔬菜的主要生长区域；在蔬菜需求方面，城镇和农村居民的人均蔬菜鲜食量都稳中有升。这主要是由于我国人口的继续增长带来我国蔬菜国内消费的大幅增长。在对外贸易方面，总体上看，我国的蔬菜出口量大于进口量，并且在加入世贸组织后世后我国蔬菜出口的比较优势呈下降趋势。原因在于入世后我国的产业重组不成功，导致之前在国内具有比较优势的产品在日益激烈的国际竞争中优势逐渐消耗殆尽，加上贸易壁垒的存在及发达国家贸易保护的加强，进一步阻碍了我国蔬菜的出口。
在封闭的假设条件下，伴随着我国蔬菜生产历程的变迁，蔬菜供需平衡经历了三次演变；但当前，受生产力持续提升、经济效益刺激、生产技术革新、市场自发调节等因素的影响，我国蔬菜供需供给增速高于需求增速、供需不平衡凸现，且供需不平衡中结构性、季节性、地区性过剩突出；1990年到2009年我国蔬菜处于供过于求的状态，并且多余的供给量有增大的趋势；预测2010年到2020年间，我国蔬菜仍旧供过于求，到2020年供过于求的数量将会达到42686.89万吨。导致供给量剩余增大的主要原因是蔬菜的生产量逐年上升，并且增加幅度较快；而在总需求中占很大比重的鲜食蔬菜的需求在2016年之前虽然将会增加，但增加的幅度没有供给增加得幅度大，并且在2017年到2020年之间鲜食蔬菜总需求增长缓慢，其他类型的需求增加幅度也有限，最终导致了蔬菜的供需失衡。
在开放的条件下，当前国内供给过剩能被强劲的国际市场需求消化，我国供需基本平衡且有需求剩余；1990年到2009年我国蔬菜供需处于基本平衡状态，个别年份出现供不应求的局面，但是供需缺口非常小。预测2010年到2020年，受国内蔬菜生产水平持续提升、国际竞争激励、贸易保护加剧等影响，我国蔬菜供需不平衡将日益凸显且供给过剩逐年突出，到2020年将会有30974.32万吨的蔬菜剩余。将给我国蔬菜产业发展带来一系列不良影响。
研究就保持我国蔬菜供需均衡，在蔬菜供给、需求以及贸易方面，提出建议：通过扩大、创造蔬菜消费需求，保证蔬菜稳定供应及转移过剩，促进出口，调整进口等措施调节我国蔬菜的供需平衡，以达到科学布局我国的蔬菜生产、保障市场周年稳定供应、扩大蔬菜出口的对外贸易以及增强我国蔬菜国际市场竞争力的目的。研究将为增加农民收入、实现资源优化配置、供需对接、政府制定宏观经济政策提供合理的理论依据，为发展我国蔬菜产业和提高中国蔬菜产品的国际竞争力提供决策依据。
Thirty years of reform and opening up, vegetable industry has rapidly developed inChina, with continuously increasing in production scale, supply quantity, active markettransaction. The supply quantity supporting for needs of domestic market and export volumewere ranked first in the world, which have greatly contributed to agricultural synergism,increased income for farmers, expanded export and social stability. However, due to impactsof various factors including policy, market, science and technology etc., the productionascpect of vegetable industry in China has been mostly composed of individual operation byfarmers, which are charaterized by small production scale, low standardizaiton, low gradeproducts and few products varieties. In the aspect of vegetable processing, a severedisconnection between processing and market sale, and a low utilization rate for processinghas been existed, also it has not been completely realized yet in one-step production under theperspective of supply chain. In the aspect of consumption, information block betweenproduction and marketing has led to fluctuation in vegetable price, which may not only casuea tough problem performing in “dish cheap is hurt farming” and “unbearable high price forconsumer”, but also result in another difficulty involving in a conflict in ample vegetablesupply against excessive situation on season, veriety, region and structure. In aspect of importand export, for one thing, the export advantage of agricultural products of our country hasbeen weaken by sound market system and varied green trade barriers of developed country,on the other hand, owing to lack of self-discipline in vegetable production or processingenterprises who make disorderly competition by depreciation between each other, resulting inreduction of industrial benefits. Thus it can be seen, although great achievements have beenmade in the thirty years of reform and opening up, many problems have still been existed insome aspects including production, consumption, import and export, limiting the balance ofsupply and demand. On the basis of considerations described above, this dissertation entitled“Study of balance between supply and demand on vegetable in China” will address the basicstatus of China’s vegetable including supply, consumption, import and export trade underclose and opening conditions, so as to discuss whether there is a balance existed betweensupply and demand, as well as forecast the balance of supply and demand in the future.
This study analyses the vegetables production present situation and summarizes the maingrowing area of vegetables in our country.beginning from the needs of the people forvegetables.Vegetables being an irreplaceable non-staple food in people's daily life, averageper capita consumption of fresh-eat vegetables by urban and rural residents will grow in thestability. The chief reason for this is the continuous growth of our population leads to the therapid growth of the domestic vegetables consumption. In general, in our foreign trade ourcountry export vegetables more than we import and the comparative advantage of ourvegetables export has showed tendency to descend after our accession to the World TradeOrganization (WTO). The reason lies in our unsuccessful industrial reorganization after theaccess to WTO, which leads to the domestic products with comparative advantages beforelosing their advantages gradually and completely in the fierce international competition,andthe trade barrier and the intensified trade protection of developed countries further hinder theexport of vegetables in our country.secondly,this article analyzes the supply-demandequilibrium under close and opening-up situations.
Under the close condition, the supply-demand equilibrium has experienced evolutionthree times with the changes in the progress of production of vegetables in our country.butnow, influenced by the continuous promotion of productivity, stimulation of economicbenefits, technology innovation and the regulation through the market, the growth rate ofvegetables supply is higher than that of vegetables demand in our country, and the imbalancedsupply and demand and the structural,seasonal and regional surplus in which are highlighted.
During the1990to2009, supply of our vegetables exceeded demand,and thesuperfluous supply of our vegetables show an increasing tendency. This paper forecasts thatthe supply of vegetables will exceed the demand as before in our country between2010and2020, and the oversupply of our vegetables will reach426,868,900tons by2020. It is theleading cause of the increasing supply surplus that the production of vegetables will increaseyear by year and will rise rapidly,and the demand on fresh-eat vegetables taking a great partof aggregate demand will increase but slower than the supply of which before2016,and theaggregate demand on fresh-eat vegetables will increase slowly between2017and2020,theincrease of the demand on other vegetables will be limited,too,all this will finally result in theunbalance of supply and demand of our vegetables.
Under the opening up situation, the supply and demand of vegetables are balancedbasically now and there is also a demand surplus in our country as the domestic supplysurplus can be assimilated by the strong demand in the world market.the supply and demandof vegetables were in balance position basically in our country between1990and2009,although in individual years supply fell short of demand,the insufficiency of supply and demand of vegetables was very small.This article forecasts that influenced by the continuousimprovement of the domestic vegetable productions, stimulation of international competitionand trade protectionism getting worse, the imbalanced supply and demand and the supplysurplus of vegetables will become more prominent in our country year by year,and there willbe a surplus of vegetables of309,743,200tons by2020, Which will bring a series of negativeeffect on the development of vegetable industry in our country.Therefore, we should adjustsupply and demand of our vegetables by way of expanding and creating consumption demandon vegetables, ensuring a stable supply of vegetables and a transfer of vegetables surplus,promoting export and adjusting import.
In the aspects of supply, demand and trading of vegetables, we forward related policyadvice about how to maintain the equilibrium of supply and demand in vegetable market, soas to scientifically allocate vegetables production in China, and ensure the stable marketsupply around the year, expand the foreign trade of vegetable products and enhance theinternational market competition of vegetables in China. The study will provide a soundtheoretical basis for realizing income increase of farmer, optimal allocation of resources,supply connection and government macro economic policy making, as well as will providethe decision making basis for developing vegetable industry and enhancing internationalcompetitiveness of vegetable products in China.
引文
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