中国羊肉市场供求现状及未来趋势研究
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摘要
近些年来,随着我国居民收入水平的不断提高和生活模式的不断转变,我国羊肉消费市场快速发展,羊肉健康、安全的营养特性被广泛认可,羊肉消费量稳步增加；相比之下,我国肉羊生产却凸显传统和落后,养殖方式较为粗放,养殖规模普遍较小,产业化进程较为缓慢,且日益受到资源环境条件的制约,羊肉市场供求呈趋紧态势；随着这一态势的出现和持续,近年来我国羊肉价格快速上涨,已位居猪肉、牛肉、家禽肉等普通肉类价格之首,在较大程度上对我国居民尤其是低收入居民以及边疆牧区和民族地区居民的羊肉消费产生较大影响,同时,我国羊肉进口量逐年增加,出口量略有下降,进出口逆差逐年增大,而我国主要羊肉进口来源国澳大利亚和新西兰羊肉产量却呈现下降态势,我国羊肉供给安全面临挑战。在此背景下,迫切需要对我国羊肉市场供求运行现状及未来趋势进行系统分析和研究,以推进我国肉羊产业化进程,推动我国羊肉消费市场健康发展,保障我国羊肉市场供求平衡的实现。
本研究在局部均衡的理论框架下,按照从局部到整体的研究思路,采用实地调查法、比较分析法、统计分析法和计量分析法等多种方法,首先对我国羊肉生产、消费和进出口现状进行分析,羊肉生产部分总结分析了我国肉羊存栏和羊肉产量、我国肉羊生产的区域分布和变迁、我国肉羊养殖的规模化进程及养殖效益、我国肉羊生产的技术效率；羊肉消费部分分析了我国居民羊肉消费的数量特征、我国居民羊肉消费行为和影响因素、我国居民未来羊肉消费意愿；进出口部分分析了世界羊肉生产和贸易概况,梳理了我国羊肉进出口数量、进出口结构,分析了我国羊肉市场与国际羊肉市场的整合关系；然后以全国羊肉消费市场为研究对象,构建了我国羊肉市场供求局部均衡模型并对模型进行求解,分析我国羊肉市场的运行规律,并根据模型求取2012-2025年我国羊肉市场供求的基准解,对未来我国羊肉市场供求进行了预测和基本判断；最后考虑我国羊肉市场供求所处政策环境的可能变化,对收入水平、规模化水平、胴体重水平、汇率变化以及人口变化等五个外生变量进行情景分析和设定,分析外生政策环境改变情况下我国羊肉市场供求的潜在运行趋势,以对未来我国羊肉市场供求有更为充分的把握。
研究结果表明：①近年来我国肉羊生产稳步发展,规模化水平不断提高,产业化进程得以推进,但肉羊产业发展总体依然较为缓慢；②我国居民羊肉消费量稳步增加,未来对羊肉消费有较强的消费意愿；③世界羊肉产量逐年增加,呈现向亚洲和非洲集中和转移的趋势,我国羊肉市场与世界羊肉市场具有长期整合关系和短期波动矫正机制；④2012-2025年间,我国羊肉产量和消费量均将不断增加,供给趋紧的态势预期将在较长时间内持续,羊肉价格亦将不断上涨,进出口逆差不断扩大,我国羊肉市场面临的较为严峻的问题将依然是发展肉羊生产、保障羊肉供给；⑤在“收入水平提高”、“规模化水平提高”、“胴体重水平提高”、“人民币升值”和“人口政策改变”的情境下,未来我国羊肉市场供求会呈现不同的运行状态。最后,为发展我国肉羊生产、实现我国羊肉市场供求平衡,本研究分别从生产方面、消费方面和进出口方面提出对策建议。
In recent years, as people's income level rises and lifestyle changes, mutton consumption market developed rapidly in china, the characteristics of health and nutrition of mutton has been widely accepted, consumption quantity of mutton has increased steadily.But in contrast, the mutton production is exceptionally traditional and backward,the breeding method still is extensive, the scale still is small,the industrialization process still is slow,and the industry is increasingly contrained by resource and environment,the mutton market has appeared tight balance. With the tight balance appearing and continuing, mutton price rised rapidly in recent years which has got the top of the popular meat price of pork, beaf and chicken,and the high price has affected people's mutton consumption,especially people with low income and those in the frontier and minority areas.At the same time, mutton import is increasing, mutton export is decreasing,and the trade deficit is becoming wider, however, mutton production in Australia and New Zealand has appeared downward trend.So china's mutton market is facing challenges.In this condition,it is urgent to make research on the current situation and the future trend of the mutton market in china,to accelerate the process of mutton industrzation,improve the development of mutton consumption market, and insure the balance of mutton supply and demand.
Within the framerwork of partial balance theory,the paper comprehensively use investigation method, comparative analysis method, statistical analysis method and quantitative analysis method.Firstly,the paper analyzes the current situation of mutton production,mutton consumption and mutton import and export of china. As to mutton production,the paper analyzes meat sheep stock and mutton production,the regional distribution and change,the scale process and the productivity income,the technical efficiency of meat sheep industry.As to mutton consumption,the paper analyzes the consumption quantity, the consumer behavior and the affect factors,the consumption trend in the future.As to mutton import and export,the paper summarizes the mutton production and trade all over the world, analyzes the quantity and structure of china's mutton import and export,research the integration relation between the domestic mutton market and internal mutton market.Secondly,the paper constructs the partial balance model of mutton supply and demand based on the partial balance theory on the whole country level,and make forcast on the mutton market in2012-2025.At last, considering the change of the exogenous factors that can affect the mutton market,the paper make scenario simulations with supposing income level,scale level,carcass weight,change rate and population scale change,to make more sufficient learning of china mutton market in the future.
The main conclusions are:①In recent years,china's mutton industry developed steadily,the scale level increased,and the process of industrialization has been improved.②Mutton consumption has increased,and Chinese residents has strong consumption willingness in the future.③The production of mutton in the world increased year by year,and appears the trend of transfer and concentration to Asia and Africa,and there exists long-term contegraton relationship and short-term fluctuations correction mechanism between Chinese mutton market and world mutton market.④From2012to2025,the production and consumption of mutton will keep increasing,the situation of tight balance will go on, the mutton price will rise still, the trade deficit will be wider, the major issue to china's mutton market will be how to develop mutton production and how to insure the balance of supply and demand.⑤Under the scenario of income level rising,scale process developing,carcass weight rising, RMB appreciation and population increasing, china's mutton market supply and demand will present different running condition in the future.At last,in order to develop meat sheep production and insure the balance of mutton supply and demand, the paper put forwards the policies from the aspects of mutton production,mutton consumption and mutton import and export respectively.
本研究在局部均衡的理论框架下,按照从局部到整体的研究思路,采用实地调查法、比较分析法、统计分析法和计量分析法等多种方法,首先对我国羊肉生产、消费和进出口现状进行分析,羊肉生产部分总结分析了我国肉羊存栏和羊肉产量、我国肉羊生产的区域分布和变迁、我国肉羊养殖的规模化进程及养殖效益、我国肉羊生产的技术效率；羊肉消费部分分析了我国居民羊肉消费的数量特征、我国居民羊肉消费行为和影响因素、我国居民未来羊肉消费意愿；进出口部分分析了世界羊肉生产和贸易概况,梳理了我国羊肉进出口数量、进出口结构,分析了我国羊肉市场与国际羊肉市场的整合关系；然后以全国羊肉消费市场为研究对象,构建了我国羊肉市场供求局部均衡模型并对模型进行求解,分析我国羊肉市场的运行规律,并根据模型求取2012-2025年我国羊肉市场供求的基准解,对未来我国羊肉市场供求进行了预测和基本判断；最后考虑我国羊肉市场供求所处政策环境的可能变化,对收入水平、规模化水平、胴体重水平、汇率变化以及人口变化等五个外生变量进行情景分析和设定,分析外生政策环境改变情况下我国羊肉市场供求的潜在运行趋势,以对未来我国羊肉市场供求有更为充分的把握。
研究结果表明：①近年来我国肉羊生产稳步发展,规模化水平不断提高,产业化进程得以推进,但肉羊产业发展总体依然较为缓慢；②我国居民羊肉消费量稳步增加,未来对羊肉消费有较强的消费意愿；③世界羊肉产量逐年增加,呈现向亚洲和非洲集中和转移的趋势,我国羊肉市场与世界羊肉市场具有长期整合关系和短期波动矫正机制；④2012-2025年间,我国羊肉产量和消费量均将不断增加,供给趋紧的态势预期将在较长时间内持续,羊肉价格亦将不断上涨,进出口逆差不断扩大,我国羊肉市场面临的较为严峻的问题将依然是发展肉羊生产、保障羊肉供给；⑤在“收入水平提高”、“规模化水平提高”、“胴体重水平提高”、“人民币升值”和“人口政策改变”的情境下,未来我国羊肉市场供求会呈现不同的运行状态。最后,为发展我国肉羊生产、实现我国羊肉市场供求平衡,本研究分别从生产方面、消费方面和进出口方面提出对策建议。
In recent years, as people's income level rises and lifestyle changes, mutton consumption market developed rapidly in china, the characteristics of health and nutrition of mutton has been widely accepted, consumption quantity of mutton has increased steadily.But in contrast, the mutton production is exceptionally traditional and backward,the breeding method still is extensive, the scale still is small,the industrialization process still is slow,and the industry is increasingly contrained by resource and environment,the mutton market has appeared tight balance. With the tight balance appearing and continuing, mutton price rised rapidly in recent years which has got the top of the popular meat price of pork, beaf and chicken,and the high price has affected people's mutton consumption,especially people with low income and those in the frontier and minority areas.At the same time, mutton import is increasing, mutton export is decreasing,and the trade deficit is becoming wider, however, mutton production in Australia and New Zealand has appeared downward trend.So china's mutton market is facing challenges.In this condition,it is urgent to make research on the current situation and the future trend of the mutton market in china,to accelerate the process of mutton industrzation,improve the development of mutton consumption market, and insure the balance of mutton supply and demand.
Within the framerwork of partial balance theory,the paper comprehensively use investigation method, comparative analysis method, statistical analysis method and quantitative analysis method.Firstly,the paper analyzes the current situation of mutton production,mutton consumption and mutton import and export of china. As to mutton production,the paper analyzes meat sheep stock and mutton production,the regional distribution and change,the scale process and the productivity income,the technical efficiency of meat sheep industry.As to mutton consumption,the paper analyzes the consumption quantity, the consumer behavior and the affect factors,the consumption trend in the future.As to mutton import and export,the paper summarizes the mutton production and trade all over the world, analyzes the quantity and structure of china's mutton import and export,research the integration relation between the domestic mutton market and internal mutton market.Secondly,the paper constructs the partial balance model of mutton supply and demand based on the partial balance theory on the whole country level,and make forcast on the mutton market in2012-2025.At last, considering the change of the exogenous factors that can affect the mutton market,the paper make scenario simulations with supposing income level,scale level,carcass weight,change rate and population scale change,to make more sufficient learning of china mutton market in the future.
The main conclusions are:①In recent years,china's mutton industry developed steadily,the scale level increased,and the process of industrialization has been improved.②Mutton consumption has increased,and Chinese residents has strong consumption willingness in the future.③The production of mutton in the world increased year by year,and appears the trend of transfer and concentration to Asia and Africa,and there exists long-term contegraton relationship and short-term fluctuations correction mechanism between Chinese mutton market and world mutton market.④From2012to2025,the production and consumption of mutton will keep increasing,the situation of tight balance will go on, the mutton price will rise still, the trade deficit will be wider, the major issue to china's mutton market will be how to develop mutton production and how to insure the balance of supply and demand.⑤Under the scenario of income level rising,scale process developing,carcass weight rising, RMB appreciation and population increasing, china's mutton market supply and demand will present different running condition in the future.At last,in order to develop meat sheep production and insure the balance of mutton supply and demand, the paper put forwards the policies from the aspects of mutton production,mutton consumption and mutton import and export respectively.
引文
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