中国居民消费碳排放的测算及影响因素研究
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摘要
随着社会经济发展和居民生活水平的提高,居民消费已成为能源消耗和碳排放的重要来源之一,其对碳排放的贡献越来越不容忽视。因此,为实现低碳发展,不仅要协调好“经济增长”和“节能减排”之间的矛盾,还需要协调好“扩大消费”与“节能减排”之间的矛盾。然而,当前的减排政策主要针对生产领域,缺乏针对居民消费的有效减排措施。本文进行居民消费碳排放的测算和影响因素研究,量化分析了中国居民消费碳排放的现状和变化特征,社会经济因素变化对中国居民消费碳排放的影响,以期为居民消费领域的减排政策与管理措施的制定提供科学依据。
本文的主要研究内容包括：
(1)构建了居民消费碳排放测算模型,对中国居民消费碳排放进行了测算和分析。本文将居民消费碳排放分为居民生活用能碳排放和居民消费品嵌入式碳排放两类,分别基于碳排放系数法构建了居民生活用能碳排放测算模型,基于环境投入产出-生命周期分析(EIO-LCA)和消费者生活方式方法(CLA)构建了居民消费品嵌入式碳排放测算模型。基于居民消费碳排放测算模型,对中国和30个省区城乡居民消费碳排放进行了测算和分析,定量描述了中国居民消费碳排放的规模、结构、变动规律,城乡差异与区域差异。将居民消费碳排放作为环境影响代理指标,进行了居民消费碳排放与居民消费支出之间的脱钩分析,对中国和30个省区居民的消费模式进行了评价。
(2)基于指数分解分析(IDA)方法,构建了居民生活用能碳排放影响因素模型,考察了社会经济中的关键因素变化对居民生活用能碳排放的影响。本文运用该模型对2000-2010年中国和30个省区居民生活用能碳排放进行了影响因素实证研究,并基于实证分析结果,提出了针对不同省区的居民生活用能的节能减排政策建议。
(3)基于环境投入产出-生命周期分析(EIO-LCA)和结构分解分析(SDA)方法,构建了居民消费品嵌入式碳排放影响因素模型,考察了生产系统和消费系统中因素变动对居民消费品嵌入式碳排放的影响。本文运用该模型对1997-2007年中国和30个省区居民消费嵌入式碳排放进行了影响因素实证研究,并基于实证分析结果,提出了针对不同省区的居民商品和服务消费的节能减排政策建议。
本文的研究创新主要体现在以下几个方面：
(1)基于消费视角对碳排放问题进行研究,弥补了学界对居民消费领域能源消耗和碳排放关注的不足,充实了我国关于消费碳排放问题研究的理论与方法。基于生产视角的碳排放研究已有较多的方法与理论,就研究目标而言,基于生产视角的研究解决的是“如何排放”的问题,而基于消费行为视角的研究则解决的是“为谁排放”的问题,后者更侧重于从根源上构建减排机制,但目前国际、国内此方而的研究还很薄弱。
(2)改进了居民消费碳排放的测算方法,并对中国各省区的居民消费碳排放进行了测算。对居民消费品嵌入式碳排放的测算多是采用消费者生活方式方法(CLA),但CLA方法忽视了经济系统中各行业之间的依赖关系,仅计算各消费项在其生产过程中,由与其直接相关行业的能源消费而产生的碳排放,没有考虑消费品在中间生产过程中的碳排放。本文借助环境投入产出-生命周期分析(EIO-LCA)对CLA进行改进,测算结果更为准确。此外,本文首次从区域层面上对中国各省区居民消费碳排放进行了测算,揭示了我国居民消费碳排放的区域差异。
(3)对中国居民消费碳排放的影响因素进行了系统性的研究,为消费领域节能减排政策的制定提供了理论依据。已有的碳排放影响因素主要集中于生产领域,针对居民消费碳排放的研究较少。本文将基于生产领域的碳排放影响因素研究方法(指数分解分析和结构分解分析)应用到居民消费碳排放的影响因素研究中,构建了居民消费碳排放影响因素模型,通过对中国各省区居民消费碳排放进行影响因素实证研究,提出了“只针对生产系统的减排政策和措施并不能实现有效减排,减排需要生产系统和消费系统同时改善”的节能减排新思路。
With the socio-economic development and improvement of residents' living standards, residents' consumption has become an important source of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and its contribution to carbon emissions can not be ignored. Therefore, in order to achieve a low carbon development, it isn't enough that only coordinate well the contradiction between "economic growth" and "energy saving and emission reduction", but also the contradiction between "consumption expand" and "energy saving and emission reduction". However, the current emission reduction policies are mainly on production process and lacks effective emission reduction measures on residents' consumption. This paper studies on the evaluation and impact factors of carbon emissions from residents' consumption to provide scientific basis for formulation of emission reduction policies and management measures.
The main research contents of this paper include:
(1) Constructed the calculation model of carbon emissions from residents' consumption, then did calculation and analysis on China's carbon emissions. This paper divided the carbon emissions from residents' consumption into two categories: carbon emissions from residential energy consumption and carbon emissions embedded in residents' consumption of goods and services, then constructed the calculation model of the two categories carbon emissions based on the emissions coefficient method and the combination of environmental input output-life cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) and consumer lifestyle approach (CLA) respectively. The urban and rural carbon emissions from residents' consumption of30provinces in China had been estimated based on the calculation model, then the scale, structure, rule of change, urban and rural difference, regional difference of China's carbon emissions from residents' consumption had been described quantitatively. Viewed the carbon emissions from residents' consumption as an agent index of environmental influences, this paper did decoupling analysis between carbon emissions from residents' consumption and residents' consumption expenditure, then evaluated the residents' consumption pattern of30provinces in China.
(2) Constructed model of impact factors of carbon emissions from residential energy consumption based on index decomposition analysis (IDA), examined the influence of factors' variation of socio-economic and population to carbon emissions from residential energy consumption. Then did empirical research on30provinces in China from2000to2010and proposed suggestions for energy saving and emissions reduction in residential energy consumption based on the empirical results.
(3) Constructed model of impact factors of carbon emissions embedded in residents' consumption of goods and services based on the combination of environmental input output-life cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA), examined the influences of factors variations from production system and consumption system to embedded carbon emissions comprehensively. Then did empirical research on30provinces in China and proposed suggestions for energy saving and emissions reduction in residents'consumption of goods and services based on the empirical results.
The innovations of this paper mainly reflect in the following aspects:
(1) By studying on carbon emissions based on consumption perspective, this paper made up of the shortcoming of attention on energy consumption and carbon emissions from residents' consumption, and enriched the theories and methods of the study on carbon emissions from residents' consumption. There were many theories and methods in the researches of carbon emissions based on production perspective. The study which was based on consumption perspective was resolving the problem of "emissions for who", it emphasized the "human" factor and could reflect the real cause of the growth of carbon emissions from the root, thus could help to set up more effective mechanism for "energy saving and emission reduction". But the research of this aspect was very weak at present.
(2) Improved the calculate method of carbon emissions embedded in residents' consumption of goods and services. Consumer lifestyle approach (CLA) was a commonly used method in calculating the embedded carbon emissions, but it ignored the dependence of industries in economic system and only calculated the carbon emissions from industries which were directly related to the production process of goods or services, didn't consider the carbon emissions in the middle production process. This paper improved the CLA by making use of EIO-LCA, and the calculations were more accurate. In addition, this paper measured carbon emissions from residents'consumption from regional level firstly, and revealed the regional difference of carbon emissions from residents' consumption in China.
(3) Did systematic research on impact factors of carbon emissions from residents' consumption, and provided theory basis for the formulation of energy saving and emissions reduction in consumption field. The existed researches of impact factors of carbon emissions were focus on production field, and which on residents' consumption were rare. This paper applied methods of impact factors (index decomposition method and structural decomposition analysis) to the researches of impact factors of carbon emissions from residential energy consumption, proposed new ideas for energy saving and emissions reduction that "In order to achieve effective reduction, it isn't enough that only implement policy on production system, but should improve the production system and consumption system at the same time"
本文的主要研究内容包括：
(1)构建了居民消费碳排放测算模型,对中国居民消费碳排放进行了测算和分析。本文将居民消费碳排放分为居民生活用能碳排放和居民消费品嵌入式碳排放两类,分别基于碳排放系数法构建了居民生活用能碳排放测算模型,基于环境投入产出-生命周期分析(EIO-LCA)和消费者生活方式方法(CLA)构建了居民消费品嵌入式碳排放测算模型。基于居民消费碳排放测算模型,对中国和30个省区城乡居民消费碳排放进行了测算和分析,定量描述了中国居民消费碳排放的规模、结构、变动规律,城乡差异与区域差异。将居民消费碳排放作为环境影响代理指标,进行了居民消费碳排放与居民消费支出之间的脱钩分析,对中国和30个省区居民的消费模式进行了评价。
(2)基于指数分解分析(IDA)方法,构建了居民生活用能碳排放影响因素模型,考察了社会经济中的关键因素变化对居民生活用能碳排放的影响。本文运用该模型对2000-2010年中国和30个省区居民生活用能碳排放进行了影响因素实证研究,并基于实证分析结果,提出了针对不同省区的居民生活用能的节能减排政策建议。
(3)基于环境投入产出-生命周期分析(EIO-LCA)和结构分解分析(SDA)方法,构建了居民消费品嵌入式碳排放影响因素模型,考察了生产系统和消费系统中因素变动对居民消费品嵌入式碳排放的影响。本文运用该模型对1997-2007年中国和30个省区居民消费嵌入式碳排放进行了影响因素实证研究,并基于实证分析结果,提出了针对不同省区的居民商品和服务消费的节能减排政策建议。
本文的研究创新主要体现在以下几个方面：
(1)基于消费视角对碳排放问题进行研究,弥补了学界对居民消费领域能源消耗和碳排放关注的不足,充实了我国关于消费碳排放问题研究的理论与方法。基于生产视角的碳排放研究已有较多的方法与理论,就研究目标而言,基于生产视角的研究解决的是“如何排放”的问题,而基于消费行为视角的研究则解决的是“为谁排放”的问题,后者更侧重于从根源上构建减排机制,但目前国际、国内此方而的研究还很薄弱。
(2)改进了居民消费碳排放的测算方法,并对中国各省区的居民消费碳排放进行了测算。对居民消费品嵌入式碳排放的测算多是采用消费者生活方式方法(CLA),但CLA方法忽视了经济系统中各行业之间的依赖关系,仅计算各消费项在其生产过程中,由与其直接相关行业的能源消费而产生的碳排放,没有考虑消费品在中间生产过程中的碳排放。本文借助环境投入产出-生命周期分析(EIO-LCA)对CLA进行改进,测算结果更为准确。此外,本文首次从区域层面上对中国各省区居民消费碳排放进行了测算,揭示了我国居民消费碳排放的区域差异。
(3)对中国居民消费碳排放的影响因素进行了系统性的研究,为消费领域节能减排政策的制定提供了理论依据。已有的碳排放影响因素主要集中于生产领域,针对居民消费碳排放的研究较少。本文将基于生产领域的碳排放影响因素研究方法(指数分解分析和结构分解分析)应用到居民消费碳排放的影响因素研究中,构建了居民消费碳排放影响因素模型,通过对中国各省区居民消费碳排放进行影响因素实证研究,提出了“只针对生产系统的减排政策和措施并不能实现有效减排,减排需要生产系统和消费系统同时改善”的节能减排新思路。
With the socio-economic development and improvement of residents' living standards, residents' consumption has become an important source of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and its contribution to carbon emissions can not be ignored. Therefore, in order to achieve a low carbon development, it isn't enough that only coordinate well the contradiction between "economic growth" and "energy saving and emission reduction", but also the contradiction between "consumption expand" and "energy saving and emission reduction". However, the current emission reduction policies are mainly on production process and lacks effective emission reduction measures on residents' consumption. This paper studies on the evaluation and impact factors of carbon emissions from residents' consumption to provide scientific basis for formulation of emission reduction policies and management measures.
The main research contents of this paper include:
(1) Constructed the calculation model of carbon emissions from residents' consumption, then did calculation and analysis on China's carbon emissions. This paper divided the carbon emissions from residents' consumption into two categories: carbon emissions from residential energy consumption and carbon emissions embedded in residents' consumption of goods and services, then constructed the calculation model of the two categories carbon emissions based on the emissions coefficient method and the combination of environmental input output-life cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) and consumer lifestyle approach (CLA) respectively. The urban and rural carbon emissions from residents' consumption of30provinces in China had been estimated based on the calculation model, then the scale, structure, rule of change, urban and rural difference, regional difference of China's carbon emissions from residents' consumption had been described quantitatively. Viewed the carbon emissions from residents' consumption as an agent index of environmental influences, this paper did decoupling analysis between carbon emissions from residents' consumption and residents' consumption expenditure, then evaluated the residents' consumption pattern of30provinces in China.
(2) Constructed model of impact factors of carbon emissions from residential energy consumption based on index decomposition analysis (IDA), examined the influence of factors' variation of socio-economic and population to carbon emissions from residential energy consumption. Then did empirical research on30provinces in China from2000to2010and proposed suggestions for energy saving and emissions reduction in residential energy consumption based on the empirical results.
(3) Constructed model of impact factors of carbon emissions embedded in residents' consumption of goods and services based on the combination of environmental input output-life cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA), examined the influences of factors variations from production system and consumption system to embedded carbon emissions comprehensively. Then did empirical research on30provinces in China and proposed suggestions for energy saving and emissions reduction in residents'consumption of goods and services based on the empirical results.
The innovations of this paper mainly reflect in the following aspects:
(1) By studying on carbon emissions based on consumption perspective, this paper made up of the shortcoming of attention on energy consumption and carbon emissions from residents' consumption, and enriched the theories and methods of the study on carbon emissions from residents' consumption. There were many theories and methods in the researches of carbon emissions based on production perspective. The study which was based on consumption perspective was resolving the problem of "emissions for who", it emphasized the "human" factor and could reflect the real cause of the growth of carbon emissions from the root, thus could help to set up more effective mechanism for "energy saving and emission reduction". But the research of this aspect was very weak at present.
(2) Improved the calculate method of carbon emissions embedded in residents' consumption of goods and services. Consumer lifestyle approach (CLA) was a commonly used method in calculating the embedded carbon emissions, but it ignored the dependence of industries in economic system and only calculated the carbon emissions from industries which were directly related to the production process of goods or services, didn't consider the carbon emissions in the middle production process. This paper improved the CLA by making use of EIO-LCA, and the calculations were more accurate. In addition, this paper measured carbon emissions from residents'consumption from regional level firstly, and revealed the regional difference of carbon emissions from residents' consumption in China.
(3) Did systematic research on impact factors of carbon emissions from residents' consumption, and provided theory basis for the formulation of energy saving and emissions reduction in consumption field. The existed researches of impact factors of carbon emissions were focus on production field, and which on residents' consumption were rare. This paper applied methods of impact factors (index decomposition method and structural decomposition analysis) to the researches of impact factors of carbon emissions from residential energy consumption, proposed new ideas for energy saving and emissions reduction that "In order to achieve effective reduction, it isn't enough that only implement policy on production system, but should improve the production system and consumption system at the same time"
引文
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