东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评估研究
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摘要
我国主要农区受多种气象灾害的影响,作物产量损失严重。准确、定量地评估农业气象灾害风险对农业可持续发展及防灾减灾对策和措施的制定意义重大。将自然灾害风险评估理论和技术应用于农业领域,从农业气象灾害风险的形成机理出发,对农业气象灾害孕灾环境的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、脆弱性及防灾减灾能力的综合评估是农业气象灾害风险评估的最新方向。目前,国内外研究大多是农业气象灾害危险性和承灾体脆弱性研究,尚未涉及多种气象灾害的风险研究,无法反映真实气象条件下农业面临的综合风险；作物在不同发育期或发育阶段遭受气象灾害对最终产量的影响就会不同,现有研究基本是基于作物整个生育期,没有区分灾害发生在哪个发育期或发育阶段,鲜有贯穿作物发育全过程的风险评估。
针对目前国内外研究中存在的问题,本文利用东北地区48个气象站1961-2010年气象资料、48个农气站1980-2010年玉米发育期资料、近50年产量面积资料、近10年灾情资料及土壤资料等多元数据,以东北地区玉米播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄、抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟4个发育阶段冷害、干旱、涝害主要气象灾害的分析为基础,以基于自然灾害风险理论和评价技术的风险评价指标体系和模型构建为重点,研究东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价技术。首先,构建冷害指数、水分盈亏指数识别作物不同发育阶段的冷害、干旱和涝害,分析发育阶段主要气象灾害的时空分布及演变规律。其次,根据自然灾害风险理论,从农业气象灾害风险的形成机制出发,建立完备的发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评价指标体系,利用自然灾害风险指数法构建东北玉米发育阶段及整个生育期主要气象灾害风险评价模型。利用系统聚类分析方法对主要气象灾害风险指数进行区划。主要结论如下：
1.东北地区玉米发育阶段热量及冷害变化
(1)4个发育阶段的年代际热量指数基本呈带状分布,东南部的长白山地最低,由东南(或东)向西北(或西)方向递增；近50a来,热量指数总体表现为明显的增加趋势,
21世纪初的热量条件为近50a最好。
(2)整个生育期全区平均冷害强度呈极显著的减弱趋势,地区间冷害变化趋势呈现差异化的特征,冷害强度减弱趋势由西南向东北方向递增。中熟区冷害强度呈显著的下降趋势,中晚熟区略有下降趋势,晚熟区则略有上升趋势。
(3)4个发育阶段的冷害频率表现为减小趋势,20世纪80年代起冷害频率有比较明显的下降,21世纪初的冷害程度最低。4个发育阶段冷害强度的突变均发生在90年代中期,突变之后冷害强度明显降低。
2.东北地区玉米发育阶段水分供需及旱涝分布
(1)近50a整个生育期需水量没有显著增加。乳熟一成熟,有显著的干旱化趋势,其它3个阶段和整个生育期没有较明显的旱涝变化。
(2)播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄,东北大部分地区中旱及以上频率在10%以下；抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟,中旱及以上频率由西北向东南方向递减,松嫩平原西部和辽宁西部为高发区,频率在30%-50%。
(3)播种—七叶,东北大部分地区中涝及以上频率在10%以下；后3个阶段,中涝及以上频率由东南向西北方向递减,辽宁东南部和吉林东南部为高发区,频率在30%-50%。
(4)发育阶段全域性、区域性中旱及以上、中涝及以上灾害有较明显的年代际变化。80年代起全域、区域干旱和涝害的发生次数明显增加。
3.东北玉米发育阶段主要气象灾害评价指标选取及模型构建
(1)采用孕灾环境多指标法,从东北玉米主要气象灾害孕灾环境指标的气象学、生物学意义出发,选取主要气象灾害危险性指标；从承灾体暴露性、脆弱性的内涵出发选取评估指标；鉴于防灾减灾能力相对滞后的研究现状,选用区域农业水平综合反映防灾减灾能力,形成了比较完备的发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评价指标体系。
(2)利用加权综合评分法和层次分析法,建立作物发育阶段单一灾种危险性评价模型；利用孕灾环境危险性指标及灾害频率综合反映主要气象灾害危险性,采用加权综合评分法构建作物发育阶段主要气象灾害危险性评估模型,根据各主要气象灾害的频率之比确定冷害、干旱、涝害危险性指数的权重系数。
(3)采用自然灾害风险指数法构建作物发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评估模型。在发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评估的基础上,根据作物减产率与各发育阶段主要气象灾害风险指数的相关程度确定各阶段风险指数的权重系数,利用加权综合评分法建立作物整个生育期主要气象灾害风险评估模型。然后,利用系统聚类分析方法对作物4个发育阶段及整个生育期主要气象灾害风险指数进行区划。
4.东北玉米主要气象灾害风险评估与区划
(1)作物发育阶段主要气象灾害危险性的分布有一定的区域差异和连续性。播种一七叶,中高值区主要分布在黑龙江东南部、吉林东部,低值区主要分布在辽宁中偏北地区；七叶—抽雄,高值区主要分布在辽宁东南部,低值区连片性较差；抽雄一乳熟、乳熟—成熟,中高值区主要分布在松嫩平原西部,低值区主要分布在吉林中东部。
(2)玉米暴露性从东北到西南呈递增趋势,中高值区主要分布在除辽西以外的辽宁大部分地区、吉林中部地区；中值区呈西北一东南走向分布在松嫩平原和吉林东北部；低值区主要分布在黑龙江中东部和吉林东北部。
(3)播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄脆弱性指数分布的连续性较差,后2个阶段脆弱性指数有比较连续的分布。防灾减灾能力指数的低值区主要分布在东北地区西部及吉林东北部,中高值区呈东北—西南走向分布在东北地区中部,
(4)播种—七叶,主要气象灾害风险指数基本呈东北一西南走向的带状分布,中低值区分布在东北地区中部,中高值区主要分布在东北地区西部和东部；七叶—抽雄,主要气象灾害风险指数基本由东北向西南方向递增,低值区主要分布在黑龙江和吉林东北部,中高值区主要分布在东北地区西部、吉林东南部、辽宁的东部和南部；抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟及整个生育期,风险指数基本由东向西递增,松嫩平原和辽宁为风险指数中高值区。
The major agricultural areas of China are affected by a variety of meteorological disasters which bring heavy losses for crop yield. Accurate and quantitative assessment of agro-meteorological disaster risk is very meaningful for sustainable agricultural development and development of disaster prevention and mitigation policies. The current research direction in assessment of agro-meteorological disasters is comprehensive assessment of hazard of disaster-forming environment, exposure and vulnerability of the bearing body, capability of mitigation and prevention according to the theory of natural disaster risk assessment and the formation mechanism of the agro-meteorological disaster risk. At present, researches were mainly focused on agro-meteorological disaster hazard and vulnerability of disaster-affected body, and few researches were related to the risk of several meteorological disasters, not exactly reflecting the comprehensive risk faced by agriculture under real meteorological conditions. Meteorological disasters occurred at different crop growth stages have different influence on final crop yield. Present research mainly based on the whole crop growth season. Crop development stages when disaster happens are not usually specified, and few disaster risk assessment throughout the whole crop development process exists.
Aimed at the current problems, multivariate data including meteorological data of48meteorological stations across the Northeast China from1961to2010, the maize development record (from1980to2010), sowing areas and yield (from1961to2010), and soil moisture and agriculture disaster data (from1992-2010) collected by48agro-meteorological observation stations, were used. Based on the analysis of meteorological disasters such as chilling, drought and flood during the stages of sowing to seven-leaf, seven-leaf to tasseling, tasseling to milky ripening, and milky ripening to maturation of maize in Northeast China, the risk assessment technology of the main meteorological disasters for maize in Northeast China was studied mainly focused on the index system and model establishment of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment based on natural disaster risk theory and assessment technique. The chilling damage index and the crop water surplus deficit index were first established to identify chilling damage, drought and flood disaster during different growth stages of crop, and the temporal-spatial distribution and the variation rules for different growth stages of the main meteorological disasters were analyzed. According to the theory of natural disaster risk, starting from the formation mechanism of agricultural meteorological disaster risk, a fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment was then built, and the main meteorological disaster risk assessment models of growth stages and the whole growth period of crop were established using natural disasters risk index method. The values of risk indices of growth stages and the whole growth period were finally regionalized using the method of system cluster. The main conclusions are as following:
1. Thermal resource and chilling damage changes during the maize growth stages in northeast China
(1) Interdecadal variability of heat index for the four growth stages generally exhibited band distribution rule, the lowest value lay in the Changbai Mountains of the southeast, and the value increased gradually from southeast(or east) to northwest(or west). In recent50yrs, the heat index had an obvious increase, which showed the best thermal condition in the early21st century.
(2) The average chilling damage of the whole growth period in all areas experienced a significant decreasing trend, but the intensity varied between areas, basically presenting a stepped rise from southwest to northeast. The chilling damage intensity significantly decreased for areas with maize ripening in the middle of the season. In contrast, the chilling damage intensity increased over the areas with maize ripening late of the season. An in-the-middle situation occurred in the areas with middle-late-season ripening maize.
(3) The frequency of chilling damage of the four growing stages showed an overall decreasing trend, and a significant reduction of frequency appeared in the1980s. The frequency of chilling damage reached the lowest degree in the early21st century. The abrupt change of chilling damage intensity during the four growing stages occurred in the middle of1990s, and then decreased obviously.
2. Distribution of water demand and supply, drought and flood during the maize growth stages in northeast China
(1) The water demand during the whole growing period didn't have an appreciable increase trend in the recent50years. There was an obvious increase trend of drought during the stage from milky ripening to maturation, while during the other three stages and the whole growth period, there was no obvious change of drought or flood.
(2) From sowing to seven-leaf and seven-leaf to heading, the frequency of middle drought or above in the most parts of Northeast China was less than10%; while from heading to milky ripening and milky ripening to maturation, the frequency of middle drought or above decreased from northwest to southeast, and the west of Songnen Plain and western part of Liaoning Province were the high-incidence areas, the frequency was between30%and50%.
(3) From sowing to seven-leaf, the frequency of middle flood or above was less than10%; while during the followed three stages, it decreased from southeast to northwest, and the southeast part of Liaoning Province and Jilin Province were the high-incidence areas, the frequency was between30%and50%.
(4) Widespread and regional middle drought or above and flood or above of growth stages had an obvious interdecadal change. From1980s, the number of widespread and regional middle drought or above and flood or above increased significantly.
3. Selection of index and establishment of model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment during growth stages of maize in northeast China
(1) Hazard indices of the main meteorological disasters were selected using multi-index method for environment causing the disaster according to meteorological and biological significance of the main meteorological disaster-pregnant environment index. According to the connotation of exposure and vulnerability for the hazard bearing body, indices were selected for risk assessment. Based on the relative lag situation of disaster prevention and mitigation, the regional agricultural level was used to comprehensively reveal the preventing and mitigating capability, and a fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment was developed.
(2) Using synthetic weighted mark method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the model of hazard assessment of growth stages of crop for a single disaster was built. Combining the hazard index of disaster-pregnant environment index and occurrence frequency of the main meteorological disasters, the main meteorological disasters hazard assessment model was built by adopting AHP, and the weight coefficients were determined by the ratio of the frequency of the main meteorological disasters.
(3) Using natural disaster risk index method, the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment of the growth stages of crop was established. Based on the values of risk index of the main meteorological disasters of the growth stages, according to correlation relationship between yield reduction rate and the values of the main meteorological disasters risk, the weight coefficients were determined, and the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment of the whole growth period of crop was established using synthetic weighted mark method. Then, using the system cluster analysis, the risk of the four growth stages and the whole growth period of crop were identified.
4. The main meteorological disasters risk assessment and identification of maize in northeast China
(1) The distribution of hazard of the main meteorological disasters of the growth stages of crop revealed regional differences and continuity. From sowing to seven-leaf, high values mainly distributed in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province and East of Jilin Province, low values in the middle northern part of Liaoning Province. From seven-leaf to tasseling, the high value areas mainly distributed in the southeast of Liaoning Province, and the low values with poor contiguous. For both growth stages from tasseling to milky ripening and from milky ripening to maturation, the middle-high range lay in the west of Songnen Plain while the low value range lay in the middle-east of Jilin Province.
(2) Exposure of maize showed an increase trend from the northeast to the southwest, high value mainly distributed in most part of Liaoning province except the western part and the middle area of Jilin Province; Middle values were located in the Songnen Plain and the northeast of Jilin Province from southeast to northwest, and the low value in the middle-east of Heilongjiang and the northeast of Jilin Province.
(3) Continuity of the vulnerability index from sowing to seven-leaf and from seven-leaf to tasseling stages was not obvious. During the next two stages of crop the vulnerability index distributed continuously. And the low values of preventing and mitigating capability were mainly located in the west of northeast China and northeast of Jilin Province, while the high values distributed in the middle of northeast China from northeast to southwest.
(4) During the stage from sowing to seven-leaf, the value of the main meteorological disasters risk presented a band distribution from northeast to southwest, with low value areas mainly distributed in the middle of northeast China, while high value areas mainly distributed in the west and east of northeast China. During the stage from seven-leaf to heading, the value of risk mainly increased from northeast to southwest, with low value areas distributed in Heilongjiang Province and the northeast of Jilin Province, and the high value areas mainly situated in the west of the northeast China, southeast of Jilin Province and eastern and southern of Liaoning Province. From heading to milky ripening, milky ripening to maturation and the whole growing period, the value of risk increased from east to west, and the middle-high value areas were mainly located in Songnen Plain and Liaoning Province.
针对目前国内外研究中存在的问题,本文利用东北地区48个气象站1961-2010年气象资料、48个农气站1980-2010年玉米发育期资料、近50年产量面积资料、近10年灾情资料及土壤资料等多元数据,以东北地区玉米播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄、抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟4个发育阶段冷害、干旱、涝害主要气象灾害的分析为基础,以基于自然灾害风险理论和评价技术的风险评价指标体系和模型构建为重点,研究东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价技术。首先,构建冷害指数、水分盈亏指数识别作物不同发育阶段的冷害、干旱和涝害,分析发育阶段主要气象灾害的时空分布及演变规律。其次,根据自然灾害风险理论,从农业气象灾害风险的形成机制出发,建立完备的发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评价指标体系,利用自然灾害风险指数法构建东北玉米发育阶段及整个生育期主要气象灾害风险评价模型。利用系统聚类分析方法对主要气象灾害风险指数进行区划。主要结论如下：
1.东北地区玉米发育阶段热量及冷害变化
(1)4个发育阶段的年代际热量指数基本呈带状分布,东南部的长白山地最低,由东南(或东)向西北(或西)方向递增；近50a来,热量指数总体表现为明显的增加趋势,
21世纪初的热量条件为近50a最好。
(2)整个生育期全区平均冷害强度呈极显著的减弱趋势,地区间冷害变化趋势呈现差异化的特征,冷害强度减弱趋势由西南向东北方向递增。中熟区冷害强度呈显著的下降趋势,中晚熟区略有下降趋势,晚熟区则略有上升趋势。
(3)4个发育阶段的冷害频率表现为减小趋势,20世纪80年代起冷害频率有比较明显的下降,21世纪初的冷害程度最低。4个发育阶段冷害强度的突变均发生在90年代中期,突变之后冷害强度明显降低。
2.东北地区玉米发育阶段水分供需及旱涝分布
(1)近50a整个生育期需水量没有显著增加。乳熟一成熟,有显著的干旱化趋势,其它3个阶段和整个生育期没有较明显的旱涝变化。
(2)播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄,东北大部分地区中旱及以上频率在10%以下；抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟,中旱及以上频率由西北向东南方向递减,松嫩平原西部和辽宁西部为高发区,频率在30%-50%。
(3)播种—七叶,东北大部分地区中涝及以上频率在10%以下；后3个阶段,中涝及以上频率由东南向西北方向递减,辽宁东南部和吉林东南部为高发区,频率在30%-50%。
(4)发育阶段全域性、区域性中旱及以上、中涝及以上灾害有较明显的年代际变化。80年代起全域、区域干旱和涝害的发生次数明显增加。
3.东北玉米发育阶段主要气象灾害评价指标选取及模型构建
(1)采用孕灾环境多指标法,从东北玉米主要气象灾害孕灾环境指标的气象学、生物学意义出发,选取主要气象灾害危险性指标；从承灾体暴露性、脆弱性的内涵出发选取评估指标；鉴于防灾减灾能力相对滞后的研究现状,选用区域农业水平综合反映防灾减灾能力,形成了比较完备的发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评价指标体系。
(2)利用加权综合评分法和层次分析法,建立作物发育阶段单一灾种危险性评价模型；利用孕灾环境危险性指标及灾害频率综合反映主要气象灾害危险性,采用加权综合评分法构建作物发育阶段主要气象灾害危险性评估模型,根据各主要气象灾害的频率之比确定冷害、干旱、涝害危险性指数的权重系数。
(3)采用自然灾害风险指数法构建作物发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评估模型。在发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评估的基础上,根据作物减产率与各发育阶段主要气象灾害风险指数的相关程度确定各阶段风险指数的权重系数,利用加权综合评分法建立作物整个生育期主要气象灾害风险评估模型。然后,利用系统聚类分析方法对作物4个发育阶段及整个生育期主要气象灾害风险指数进行区划。
4.东北玉米主要气象灾害风险评估与区划
(1)作物发育阶段主要气象灾害危险性的分布有一定的区域差异和连续性。播种一七叶,中高值区主要分布在黑龙江东南部、吉林东部,低值区主要分布在辽宁中偏北地区；七叶—抽雄,高值区主要分布在辽宁东南部,低值区连片性较差；抽雄一乳熟、乳熟—成熟,中高值区主要分布在松嫩平原西部,低值区主要分布在吉林中东部。
(2)玉米暴露性从东北到西南呈递增趋势,中高值区主要分布在除辽西以外的辽宁大部分地区、吉林中部地区；中值区呈西北一东南走向分布在松嫩平原和吉林东北部；低值区主要分布在黑龙江中东部和吉林东北部。
(3)播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄脆弱性指数分布的连续性较差,后2个阶段脆弱性指数有比较连续的分布。防灾减灾能力指数的低值区主要分布在东北地区西部及吉林东北部,中高值区呈东北—西南走向分布在东北地区中部,
(4)播种—七叶,主要气象灾害风险指数基本呈东北一西南走向的带状分布,中低值区分布在东北地区中部,中高值区主要分布在东北地区西部和东部；七叶—抽雄,主要气象灾害风险指数基本由东北向西南方向递增,低值区主要分布在黑龙江和吉林东北部,中高值区主要分布在东北地区西部、吉林东南部、辽宁的东部和南部；抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟及整个生育期,风险指数基本由东向西递增,松嫩平原和辽宁为风险指数中高值区。
The major agricultural areas of China are affected by a variety of meteorological disasters which bring heavy losses for crop yield. Accurate and quantitative assessment of agro-meteorological disaster risk is very meaningful for sustainable agricultural development and development of disaster prevention and mitigation policies. The current research direction in assessment of agro-meteorological disasters is comprehensive assessment of hazard of disaster-forming environment, exposure and vulnerability of the bearing body, capability of mitigation and prevention according to the theory of natural disaster risk assessment and the formation mechanism of the agro-meteorological disaster risk. At present, researches were mainly focused on agro-meteorological disaster hazard and vulnerability of disaster-affected body, and few researches were related to the risk of several meteorological disasters, not exactly reflecting the comprehensive risk faced by agriculture under real meteorological conditions. Meteorological disasters occurred at different crop growth stages have different influence on final crop yield. Present research mainly based on the whole crop growth season. Crop development stages when disaster happens are not usually specified, and few disaster risk assessment throughout the whole crop development process exists.
Aimed at the current problems, multivariate data including meteorological data of48meteorological stations across the Northeast China from1961to2010, the maize development record (from1980to2010), sowing areas and yield (from1961to2010), and soil moisture and agriculture disaster data (from1992-2010) collected by48agro-meteorological observation stations, were used. Based on the analysis of meteorological disasters such as chilling, drought and flood during the stages of sowing to seven-leaf, seven-leaf to tasseling, tasseling to milky ripening, and milky ripening to maturation of maize in Northeast China, the risk assessment technology of the main meteorological disasters for maize in Northeast China was studied mainly focused on the index system and model establishment of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment based on natural disaster risk theory and assessment technique. The chilling damage index and the crop water surplus deficit index were first established to identify chilling damage, drought and flood disaster during different growth stages of crop, and the temporal-spatial distribution and the variation rules for different growth stages of the main meteorological disasters were analyzed. According to the theory of natural disaster risk, starting from the formation mechanism of agricultural meteorological disaster risk, a fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment was then built, and the main meteorological disaster risk assessment models of growth stages and the whole growth period of crop were established using natural disasters risk index method. The values of risk indices of growth stages and the whole growth period were finally regionalized using the method of system cluster. The main conclusions are as following:
1. Thermal resource and chilling damage changes during the maize growth stages in northeast China
(1) Interdecadal variability of heat index for the four growth stages generally exhibited band distribution rule, the lowest value lay in the Changbai Mountains of the southeast, and the value increased gradually from southeast(or east) to northwest(or west). In recent50yrs, the heat index had an obvious increase, which showed the best thermal condition in the early21st century.
(2) The average chilling damage of the whole growth period in all areas experienced a significant decreasing trend, but the intensity varied between areas, basically presenting a stepped rise from southwest to northeast. The chilling damage intensity significantly decreased for areas with maize ripening in the middle of the season. In contrast, the chilling damage intensity increased over the areas with maize ripening late of the season. An in-the-middle situation occurred in the areas with middle-late-season ripening maize.
(3) The frequency of chilling damage of the four growing stages showed an overall decreasing trend, and a significant reduction of frequency appeared in the1980s. The frequency of chilling damage reached the lowest degree in the early21st century. The abrupt change of chilling damage intensity during the four growing stages occurred in the middle of1990s, and then decreased obviously.
2. Distribution of water demand and supply, drought and flood during the maize growth stages in northeast China
(1) The water demand during the whole growing period didn't have an appreciable increase trend in the recent50years. There was an obvious increase trend of drought during the stage from milky ripening to maturation, while during the other three stages and the whole growth period, there was no obvious change of drought or flood.
(2) From sowing to seven-leaf and seven-leaf to heading, the frequency of middle drought or above in the most parts of Northeast China was less than10%; while from heading to milky ripening and milky ripening to maturation, the frequency of middle drought or above decreased from northwest to southeast, and the west of Songnen Plain and western part of Liaoning Province were the high-incidence areas, the frequency was between30%and50%.
(3) From sowing to seven-leaf, the frequency of middle flood or above was less than10%; while during the followed three stages, it decreased from southeast to northwest, and the southeast part of Liaoning Province and Jilin Province were the high-incidence areas, the frequency was between30%and50%.
(4) Widespread and regional middle drought or above and flood or above of growth stages had an obvious interdecadal change. From1980s, the number of widespread and regional middle drought or above and flood or above increased significantly.
3. Selection of index and establishment of model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment during growth stages of maize in northeast China
(1) Hazard indices of the main meteorological disasters were selected using multi-index method for environment causing the disaster according to meteorological and biological significance of the main meteorological disaster-pregnant environment index. According to the connotation of exposure and vulnerability for the hazard bearing body, indices were selected for risk assessment. Based on the relative lag situation of disaster prevention and mitigation, the regional agricultural level was used to comprehensively reveal the preventing and mitigating capability, and a fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment was developed.
(2) Using synthetic weighted mark method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the model of hazard assessment of growth stages of crop for a single disaster was built. Combining the hazard index of disaster-pregnant environment index and occurrence frequency of the main meteorological disasters, the main meteorological disasters hazard assessment model was built by adopting AHP, and the weight coefficients were determined by the ratio of the frequency of the main meteorological disasters.
(3) Using natural disaster risk index method, the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment of the growth stages of crop was established. Based on the values of risk index of the main meteorological disasters of the growth stages, according to correlation relationship between yield reduction rate and the values of the main meteorological disasters risk, the weight coefficients were determined, and the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment of the whole growth period of crop was established using synthetic weighted mark method. Then, using the system cluster analysis, the risk of the four growth stages and the whole growth period of crop were identified.
4. The main meteorological disasters risk assessment and identification of maize in northeast China
(1) The distribution of hazard of the main meteorological disasters of the growth stages of crop revealed regional differences and continuity. From sowing to seven-leaf, high values mainly distributed in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province and East of Jilin Province, low values in the middle northern part of Liaoning Province. From seven-leaf to tasseling, the high value areas mainly distributed in the southeast of Liaoning Province, and the low values with poor contiguous. For both growth stages from tasseling to milky ripening and from milky ripening to maturation, the middle-high range lay in the west of Songnen Plain while the low value range lay in the middle-east of Jilin Province.
(2) Exposure of maize showed an increase trend from the northeast to the southwest, high value mainly distributed in most part of Liaoning province except the western part and the middle area of Jilin Province; Middle values were located in the Songnen Plain and the northeast of Jilin Province from southeast to northwest, and the low value in the middle-east of Heilongjiang and the northeast of Jilin Province.
(3) Continuity of the vulnerability index from sowing to seven-leaf and from seven-leaf to tasseling stages was not obvious. During the next two stages of crop the vulnerability index distributed continuously. And the low values of preventing and mitigating capability were mainly located in the west of northeast China and northeast of Jilin Province, while the high values distributed in the middle of northeast China from northeast to southwest.
(4) During the stage from sowing to seven-leaf, the value of the main meteorological disasters risk presented a band distribution from northeast to southwest, with low value areas mainly distributed in the middle of northeast China, while high value areas mainly distributed in the west and east of northeast China. During the stage from seven-leaf to heading, the value of risk mainly increased from northeast to southwest, with low value areas distributed in Heilongjiang Province and the northeast of Jilin Province, and the high value areas mainly situated in the west of the northeast China, southeast of Jilin Province and eastern and southern of Liaoning Province. From heading to milky ripening, milky ripening to maturation and the whole growing period, the value of risk increased from east to west, and the middle-high value areas were mainly located in Songnen Plain and Liaoning Province.
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