我国水稻种植分布及其对气候变化的响应
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摘要
水稻是我国65%左右人口的主食,在粮食生产和消费中处于主导地位。本研究从中国区域和年尺度选取影响中国水稻种植分布的潜在气候因子,利用单、双季稻的地理分布信息及其对应的一个气候标准年(1971—-2000年)气候资料,结合最大熵模型和ArcGIS软件的空间分析功能,研究了影响我国水稻种植区分布的主导气候因子,揭示了我国水稻种植区的潜在分布及其气候适宜性,并分析了1961—2010年我国水稻种植区气候适宜性年代际动态,可为我国优化水稻生产布局、改进种植制度和制定水稻种植布局应对气候变化政策提供参考。主要的研究结论如下：
●在全国范围和年尺度上,影响我国单季稻种植分布的主导气候因子是年降水量、湿润指数和稳定通过18℃持续日数；影响我国双季稻种植分布的主导气候因子是年降水量、最暖月平均气温和稳定通过18℃持续日数。基于主导气候因子和水稻种植分布地理信息,结合最大熵模型构建的我国单、双季稻种植分布与气候的关系模型能够很好地模拟我国单、双季稻种植区分布。
●根据待预测区单、双季稻的存在概率给出了我国单、双季稻种植区的气候低、中、高适宜区和不适宜区,并分析了各气候适宜区的主导气候因子特征。
●确定了我国单、双季稻的种植北界,经验证,明显优于已有方法确定的我国单、双季稻种植北界；从气候适宜性的角度看,我国双季稻种植区还有很大的扩展潜力。
●模拟研究了我国单、双季稻种植分布区及其气候适宜性对1961—2010年气候变化的年代际响应,给出了我国单、双季稻种植区对年代际气候变化响应的敏感区；给出了单、双季稻各气候适宜区潜在种植面积和单、双季稻种植北界对年代际气候变化响应的动态,指出现有气候暖干化将可能导致我国单季稻适宜种植面积的减少,而有助于反映双季稻主产区的中、高适宜种植面积的增加。
Rice serves as a basic staple for approximately65%of the China's population, has a dominant position in food production and consumption in China. This research's objectives are to clarify major climate factors affecting the distribution of rice planting region in China based on national and annual scales, to give the distribution of rice planting region and its climatic suitability divisions, and to give decadal dynamic distribution of rice climatic suitability in China since1961, in order to provide reference for optimizing rice planting pattern and making countermeasures to cope with climate change in China. In terms of potential climate factors selected from the related literatures based on national and annual scales, rice geographic information from national agrometeorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and meteorological data correspondingly, together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the spatial analyst function of ArcGIS software, major climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting region in China would be clarified, rice potential planting distribution and its climatic suitability would be revealed and decadal dynamic distribution of rice climatic suitability in China from1961to2010would be analyzed furthermore. The main results are as follows:
Annual precipitation(P), moisture index(MI) and days of not less than18℃stably(N18) are dominant climate factors affecting potential distribution of single rice planting region on annual scale in China. The dominant climate factors affecting double cropping rice planting potential distribution on annual scale in China include annual precipitation(P), mean temperature of the warmest month(Tw) and days of not less than18℃stably(N18). The distribution of single and double rice planting region in China is simulated well in terms of the maximum entropy model and the selected dominant climate factors.
Low, middle, high and none climatic suitabilities of single and double rice planting potential distribution in China are given according to the prediction presence probability. Furthermore, the characteristics of the dominant climate factors in each climatic suitability zone arc analyzed.
●The northern planting boundaries of single and double rice obtained from this study are more close to the practical boundaries at present and more accurate than those given by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the Cooperative Agricultural and Forest Crop Regionalization Group in China's (CAFCRG). Double rice has a great planting potential in its area according to its climatic suitability and planting boundaries.
●Decadal dynamic distribution and climatic suitability of single and double rice in China1961-2010are simulated in the study. The single and double rice distribution and climatic suitability sensitive area to decadal climate change are given. Furthermore, decadal planting potential area of single and double rice in each climatic suitability zone and planting boundaries arc given. The results show that current climate warming and drying may cause single rice climatic suitability planting area to decrease, middle and high climatic suitability planting area that reflecting the double rice domain produce zone to increase in China.
●在全国范围和年尺度上,影响我国单季稻种植分布的主导气候因子是年降水量、湿润指数和稳定通过18℃持续日数；影响我国双季稻种植分布的主导气候因子是年降水量、最暖月平均气温和稳定通过18℃持续日数。基于主导气候因子和水稻种植分布地理信息,结合最大熵模型构建的我国单、双季稻种植分布与气候的关系模型能够很好地模拟我国单、双季稻种植区分布。
●根据待预测区单、双季稻的存在概率给出了我国单、双季稻种植区的气候低、中、高适宜区和不适宜区,并分析了各气候适宜区的主导气候因子特征。
●确定了我国单、双季稻的种植北界,经验证,明显优于已有方法确定的我国单、双季稻种植北界；从气候适宜性的角度看,我国双季稻种植区还有很大的扩展潜力。
●模拟研究了我国单、双季稻种植分布区及其气候适宜性对1961—2010年气候变化的年代际响应,给出了我国单、双季稻种植区对年代际气候变化响应的敏感区；给出了单、双季稻各气候适宜区潜在种植面积和单、双季稻种植北界对年代际气候变化响应的动态,指出现有气候暖干化将可能导致我国单季稻适宜种植面积的减少,而有助于反映双季稻主产区的中、高适宜种植面积的增加。
Rice serves as a basic staple for approximately65%of the China's population, has a dominant position in food production and consumption in China. This research's objectives are to clarify major climate factors affecting the distribution of rice planting region in China based on national and annual scales, to give the distribution of rice planting region and its climatic suitability divisions, and to give decadal dynamic distribution of rice climatic suitability in China since1961, in order to provide reference for optimizing rice planting pattern and making countermeasures to cope with climate change in China. In terms of potential climate factors selected from the related literatures based on national and annual scales, rice geographic information from national agrometeorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and meteorological data correspondingly, together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the spatial analyst function of ArcGIS software, major climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting region in China would be clarified, rice potential planting distribution and its climatic suitability would be revealed and decadal dynamic distribution of rice climatic suitability in China from1961to2010would be analyzed furthermore. The main results are as follows:
Annual precipitation(P), moisture index(MI) and days of not less than18℃stably(N18) are dominant climate factors affecting potential distribution of single rice planting region on annual scale in China. The dominant climate factors affecting double cropping rice planting potential distribution on annual scale in China include annual precipitation(P), mean temperature of the warmest month(Tw) and days of not less than18℃stably(N18). The distribution of single and double rice planting region in China is simulated well in terms of the maximum entropy model and the selected dominant climate factors.
Low, middle, high and none climatic suitabilities of single and double rice planting potential distribution in China are given according to the prediction presence probability. Furthermore, the characteristics of the dominant climate factors in each climatic suitability zone arc analyzed.
●The northern planting boundaries of single and double rice obtained from this study are more close to the practical boundaries at present and more accurate than those given by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the Cooperative Agricultural and Forest Crop Regionalization Group in China's (CAFCRG). Double rice has a great planting potential in its area according to its climatic suitability and planting boundaries.
●Decadal dynamic distribution and climatic suitability of single and double rice in China1961-2010are simulated in the study. The single and double rice distribution and climatic suitability sensitive area to decadal climate change are given. Furthermore, decadal planting potential area of single and double rice in each climatic suitability zone and planting boundaries arc given. The results show that current climate warming and drying may cause single rice climatic suitability planting area to decrease, middle and high climatic suitability planting area that reflecting the double rice domain produce zone to increase in China.
引文
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