中国对外贸易的隐含碳研究
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摘要
气候变化是当今国际社会所面临的一项巨大挑战。随着极端气候的影响在世界各地频频上演,气候变化已成为世界广泛关注和研究的世界性问题。在《联合国气候变化框架公约》签署的《京都议定书》中,附件Ⅰ国家承诺了具体的减排目标,大多数国家正在为此目标而采取各种措施节能减排。但是,如果附件Ⅰ国家将生产转移到发展中国家,或以从发展中国家的进口替代国内生产,虽然其国内CO2排放减少,但全球的CO2排放并没有减少。而且,由于发展中国家的能源利用效率低,生产技术相对落后,生产结构的碳排放密集度相对更高,在这种情况下,全球的CO2排放可能会更多。本研究采用投入产出法分析中国对外贸易隐含碳,并对其影响因素进行结构分解分析和产业部门分析,通过建立基于消费者责任原则的碳排放责任分担体系,评估贸易在碳排放转移中的作用,从而界定中国的碳排放责任,并进一步介绍和借鉴国际上的节能减排措施和经验,以期评估国际贸易对中国、全球碳排放总量以及各国碳排放责任的影响,为国际减排责任分担体系的建立,为中国和全球低碳贸易政策和气候变化政策的制定提供研究基础和政策建议,本文主要包括以下几方面内容：
第一,建立环境投入产出—生命周期评价(EIO-LCA)模型,评估中国历年进出口贸易隐含碳的规模和产业部门分布。在贸易隐含碳研究中,投入产出模型是最主要的分析工具,因为它能够有效地将碳排放与包括出口在内的最终需求结合起来,能充分刻画经济系统中产业之间的相互关联性。结果表明：1995年中国出口商品隐含碳占当年排放的10.03%,2008年这一数字上升到26.54%：而进口商品隐含碳占当年排放的比例只从4.40%小幅上升到9.05%。这说明中国贸易不平衡的背后是污染排放的不平衡,发达国家通过对华贸易避免了本国大量的CO2排放。因此,一味指责中国的CO2排放增长是不公平的,中国及其出口商品的消费国都应对中国的CO2排放负责,设计国际气候制度时需要考虑国际贸易对碳排放的影响。
第二,利用结构分解分析(SDA)法,分析我国进出口贸易隐含碳变化的影响因素。通过对影响我国进出口隐含碳变化的主要因素进行结构分解分析,了解这些因素作用的强度和渠道,找出推动这些影响因素变化的根本原因。本文将进出口隐含碳的影响因素分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,结果表明规模效应和结构效应一直是推动出口隐含碳增长的主要因素,技术效应起到了一定的抵消作用,但远远小于规模和结构效应的正向作用。对进口隐含碳而言,1995-2008年,规模效应也一直是推动进口隐含碳增长的主要因素。虽然技术效应对减少进口隐含碳有重要贡献,但还不能抵消规模效应的正向影响。另外,结构效应一直为正,且呈增长的趋势。这说明中国不仅是排放密集型产品的出口国,而且也是排放密集型产品的进口大国,这几年排放密集型产品的进口显著增加。
第三,尝试建立基于消费的碳排放核算指标体系,消除进口中间投入品的影响,比较各国消费排放与生产排放的差异,考察贸易对碳排放核算体系的影响,界定各国减排责任。建立一个与在《京都议定书》中使用的“生产碳排放”指标体系相对应的以消费为基础的“消费碳排放”核算指标体系,估算结果表明中国的生产碳排放远远高于消费碳排放,然而美国、日本等发达国家的消费排放高于生产排放。本文认为：与生产者责任原则相比,采用消费者责任原则界定各国碳排放责任有利于减少发达国家向发展中国家的“碳泄漏”,同时也有利于环境友好型技术的国际扩散。
第四,借鉴国际社会和组织在应对气候变化方面所做的努力及取得的经验,讨论碳税、排放权交易和边境调节等政策措施对碳排放的影响,分析欧盟成功的碳税经验及对中国的启示。
最后,结合实证分析结果评价中国对外贸易隐含碳的规模,归纳影响中国进出口贸易隐含碳的因素,据此揭示基于贸易结构调整的低碳贸易发展机制、明确界定中国的碳排放责任,并从国际、贸易伙伴及本国三个层面提出控制贸易含碳量的相关政策建议,提出中国发展低碳贸易的总体思路和对策。
本文通过测算、分析中国对外贸易的隐含碳及其影响因素,建立基于消费者责任的碳排放核算体系,评估贸易在碳排放转移中的作用,从而客观界定中国温室气体排放的国际责任,为国际减排责任分担体系的建立,为中国和全球低碳贸易政策和气候变化政策的制定提供基础数据和政策建议。
Climate change is one of the most enormous challenges to intenational community. The extreme weather is rising and has attracted many organizations and researchers. Countries have made efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may be linked to climate change. The Kyoto Protocol set emission reduction goals for "Annex I" parties and most of them are developed countries. But these countries could reduce their national emissions in many ways, such as the relocation of production abroad, import substitution. If the imports use more CO2 intensive production processes, global emissions could well be higher. Based on literature reviews, this paper analyses China's CO2 emissions embodied in traded goods.
Firstly, using Environmental Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA), the paper empirically describes the impact of international trade on China's national emissions, with a particular focus on China's carbon intensive sectors. It finds that 10.03%-26.54% of China's annual CO2 emissions are produced during the manufacture of export goods destined for foreign consumers. While the CO2 emissions embodied in China's imports account for only 4.40%-9.05% of those.
Secondly, structure decomposition analysis (SDA) helps know the drivers of the trade-embodied emissions. The paper decomposes the trade-embodied emissions into scale, composition and technical effect. It finds that scale and composition effect increased the CO2 emissions embodied in trade while technical effect offset a small part of them. In the end, its mechanism and policy implications are presented. Results indicate that scale effect and composition effect are the primary drivers of emissions embodied in exports. The techonology effect is the main reducing factor. The three effects have the same impact on the emissions embodied in imports.
Thirdly, the paper explores the role of trade in emissions by creating an indicator that estimates CO2 emissions related to domestic demand (consumption emiissions), contrarying to the common indicator of emissions associated with domestic production of emissions(production emissions) which used in the Kyoto Protocol. It considers whether the effect of trade on emissions should lead to a change in emissions accounting. Comparing the production emissions and consumption emissions of China and its main trade partners, the paper shows that CO2 emissions generated to satisfy domestic demand in China were lower than emissions related to production, while the developed countries have higher consumption emissions than production emissions.
Fourthly, this paper discusses international efforts to mitigate climate change. Several measures to control CO2 emissions are also discussed. Both carbon taxes and emission trading schemes are internalizing the environmental costs of GHG and set a price on emissions. Generally, such domestic climate change policies alter the relative prices of traded goods covered by such schemes and taxes, which may affect conditions for international trade. Therefore, the discussion of the disparities in domestic levels of carbon pricing among countries, and the risk of "carbon leakage" and competiviteness effect will follow. Then, the border tax adjustment (BTA) to counterbalance these disparitie is addressed. The paper discusses the compatibility between BTA and WTO, analyses its impact on China's exports. It finds that it is impossible to establish the legality of border tax adjustment under the law of the WTO, and they will be worse than the global climate negotiation or to the maintenance of normal international trade relations.
Finally, the conclusion and policy implications are put forward. Then, it analyses the shortcomings of this study and gives prospects for future research.
第一,建立环境投入产出—生命周期评价(EIO-LCA)模型,评估中国历年进出口贸易隐含碳的规模和产业部门分布。在贸易隐含碳研究中,投入产出模型是最主要的分析工具,因为它能够有效地将碳排放与包括出口在内的最终需求结合起来,能充分刻画经济系统中产业之间的相互关联性。结果表明：1995年中国出口商品隐含碳占当年排放的10.03%,2008年这一数字上升到26.54%：而进口商品隐含碳占当年排放的比例只从4.40%小幅上升到9.05%。这说明中国贸易不平衡的背后是污染排放的不平衡,发达国家通过对华贸易避免了本国大量的CO2排放。因此,一味指责中国的CO2排放增长是不公平的,中国及其出口商品的消费国都应对中国的CO2排放负责,设计国际气候制度时需要考虑国际贸易对碳排放的影响。
第二,利用结构分解分析(SDA)法,分析我国进出口贸易隐含碳变化的影响因素。通过对影响我国进出口隐含碳变化的主要因素进行结构分解分析,了解这些因素作用的强度和渠道,找出推动这些影响因素变化的根本原因。本文将进出口隐含碳的影响因素分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,结果表明规模效应和结构效应一直是推动出口隐含碳增长的主要因素,技术效应起到了一定的抵消作用,但远远小于规模和结构效应的正向作用。对进口隐含碳而言,1995-2008年,规模效应也一直是推动进口隐含碳增长的主要因素。虽然技术效应对减少进口隐含碳有重要贡献,但还不能抵消规模效应的正向影响。另外,结构效应一直为正,且呈增长的趋势。这说明中国不仅是排放密集型产品的出口国,而且也是排放密集型产品的进口大国,这几年排放密集型产品的进口显著增加。
第三,尝试建立基于消费的碳排放核算指标体系,消除进口中间投入品的影响,比较各国消费排放与生产排放的差异,考察贸易对碳排放核算体系的影响,界定各国减排责任。建立一个与在《京都议定书》中使用的“生产碳排放”指标体系相对应的以消费为基础的“消费碳排放”核算指标体系,估算结果表明中国的生产碳排放远远高于消费碳排放,然而美国、日本等发达国家的消费排放高于生产排放。本文认为：与生产者责任原则相比,采用消费者责任原则界定各国碳排放责任有利于减少发达国家向发展中国家的“碳泄漏”,同时也有利于环境友好型技术的国际扩散。
第四,借鉴国际社会和组织在应对气候变化方面所做的努力及取得的经验,讨论碳税、排放权交易和边境调节等政策措施对碳排放的影响,分析欧盟成功的碳税经验及对中国的启示。
最后,结合实证分析结果评价中国对外贸易隐含碳的规模,归纳影响中国进出口贸易隐含碳的因素,据此揭示基于贸易结构调整的低碳贸易发展机制、明确界定中国的碳排放责任,并从国际、贸易伙伴及本国三个层面提出控制贸易含碳量的相关政策建议,提出中国发展低碳贸易的总体思路和对策。
本文通过测算、分析中国对外贸易的隐含碳及其影响因素,建立基于消费者责任的碳排放核算体系,评估贸易在碳排放转移中的作用,从而客观界定中国温室气体排放的国际责任,为国际减排责任分担体系的建立,为中国和全球低碳贸易政策和气候变化政策的制定提供基础数据和政策建议。
Climate change is one of the most enormous challenges to intenational community. The extreme weather is rising and has attracted many organizations and researchers. Countries have made efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may be linked to climate change. The Kyoto Protocol set emission reduction goals for "Annex I" parties and most of them are developed countries. But these countries could reduce their national emissions in many ways, such as the relocation of production abroad, import substitution. If the imports use more CO2 intensive production processes, global emissions could well be higher. Based on literature reviews, this paper analyses China's CO2 emissions embodied in traded goods.
Firstly, using Environmental Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA), the paper empirically describes the impact of international trade on China's national emissions, with a particular focus on China's carbon intensive sectors. It finds that 10.03%-26.54% of China's annual CO2 emissions are produced during the manufacture of export goods destined for foreign consumers. While the CO2 emissions embodied in China's imports account for only 4.40%-9.05% of those.
Secondly, structure decomposition analysis (SDA) helps know the drivers of the trade-embodied emissions. The paper decomposes the trade-embodied emissions into scale, composition and technical effect. It finds that scale and composition effect increased the CO2 emissions embodied in trade while technical effect offset a small part of them. In the end, its mechanism and policy implications are presented. Results indicate that scale effect and composition effect are the primary drivers of emissions embodied in exports. The techonology effect is the main reducing factor. The three effects have the same impact on the emissions embodied in imports.
Thirdly, the paper explores the role of trade in emissions by creating an indicator that estimates CO2 emissions related to domestic demand (consumption emiissions), contrarying to the common indicator of emissions associated with domestic production of emissions(production emissions) which used in the Kyoto Protocol. It considers whether the effect of trade on emissions should lead to a change in emissions accounting. Comparing the production emissions and consumption emissions of China and its main trade partners, the paper shows that CO2 emissions generated to satisfy domestic demand in China were lower than emissions related to production, while the developed countries have higher consumption emissions than production emissions.
Fourthly, this paper discusses international efforts to mitigate climate change. Several measures to control CO2 emissions are also discussed. Both carbon taxes and emission trading schemes are internalizing the environmental costs of GHG and set a price on emissions. Generally, such domestic climate change policies alter the relative prices of traded goods covered by such schemes and taxes, which may affect conditions for international trade. Therefore, the discussion of the disparities in domestic levels of carbon pricing among countries, and the risk of "carbon leakage" and competiviteness effect will follow. Then, the border tax adjustment (BTA) to counterbalance these disparitie is addressed. The paper discusses the compatibility between BTA and WTO, analyses its impact on China's exports. It finds that it is impossible to establish the legality of border tax adjustment under the law of the WTO, and they will be worse than the global climate negotiation or to the maintenance of normal international trade relations.
Finally, the conclusion and policy implications are put forward. Then, it analyses the shortcomings of this study and gives prospects for future research.
引文
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