异质性视角下的出口与生产率：企业动因及行业绩效
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摘要
企业生产率与出口是所谓“新-新贸易理论”的一个基本视点,这个视点的一个重要论题是企业生产率与其出口决策行为之间的互动关系。迄今为止的研究主要沿着这两个变量间因果联系的两个方向展开：一个是从企业生产率到其出口决策行为,另一个是从企业出口行为到其生产率变化。已有研究尤其是实证研究关于前一个方向的因果联系得出的结论大多是肯定的,即证明了企业生产率决定其出口决策,高生产率的企业更倾向于出口。而关于后一个方向的因果联系得出的结论则是多样的,有肯定亦有否定。出口与生产率还是经济增长理论探讨的重要论题之一,关注的重点在于出口的行业生产率效应。本文主旨,除了沿着“新—新贸易理论”的这个视点,引人中国现实与数据进行从机理梳理到实证检验而外,还试图从“新—新贸易理论”与增长理论的综合视点切入,梳理企业与行业两个不同层面出口的生产率效应及其联系。这一研究的理论创新空间首先与中国特有的现实联系在一起,而将企业和行业两个层面综合考虑,本身就属于新的探索。其现实政策意义也是可以预料到的。
理论上,本文从已有经典模型出发,引入中国现实进行了机理阐述。具体有两个部分：(1)在企业出口决定的理论模型分析中,将影响企业出口决定的异质性特征拓展至更多的维度,为更为全面地探讨“自我选择效应”这一理论假说在中国的适用性问题奠定了一定的理论基础；(2)试图将出口与生产率之间的关系由企业层面过渡到行业层面,进而完成对“出口学习效应”的机理阐述,并对由于企业出口选择与行业生产率绩效之间的利益不对称所导致的“合成谬误”猜想——即企业个体利益与行业或国家整体利益不一致的现象进行了一个初步分析。据此提出一个适合中国的分析框架,进而在实证分析部分给出来自中国的经验证据。
实证上,本文针对上述机理并基于中国企业数据对理论假说进行经验验证,这包括对同一主题从不同视角的考察以及对“合成谬误”猜想的尝试性实证分析。具体有以下几方面：(1)关于企业出口决定的“自我选择效应”这一经典理论假说在中国总体企业中的适用性问题,本文同时使用劳动生产率和TFP进行了更为全面的经验论证；(2)本文基于所有制视角还发现了中国企业出口参与存在部分“自我选择悖论”特征,并将其归结为“倒U形”现象予以描述,同时从所有制结构这一颇具“中国特色”的制度视角加以合理解释；(3)本文给出了基于典型省域之间的经验比较分析,进而为中国企业出口参与决策提供了更具现实价值的经验参考和政策启示；(4)本文对企业出口的行业生产率“合成谬误”猜想给出了来自中国的尝试性实证检验,并且还利用此前的部分“悖论”特征较为合理地解释了这一现象。
主要的研究结论是：(1)基于中国总体企业出口行为的分析表明,就劳动生产率而言,其对出口决定具有显著的负向影响,与“自我选择”假说相悖,这种所谓的“悖论”现象主要由我国特有的加工贸易占主导的贸易模式所致；而对TFP来讲,其对出口决定却表现出稳健的正向影响,符合“自我选择”假说,这可能归因于出口企业具有相对较好的“软环境”。第二,基于所有制视角的分析表明,不同所有制企业中生产率对出口倾向的影响存在巨大差异,即“自我选择效应”在中国仅具有有限的适用性,而这种差异更多的是由所有制背后所隐藏的特殊制度因素所造成的。第三,基于典型省域的企业出口决定比较分析表明,浙江因其高比重的民营经济并受特殊的制度环境影响而表现出符合与违背“自我选择”假说的现象并存；而广东则因其高比重的外资企业及其所从事的加工贸易表现出“一边倒”的“自我选择悖论”特征。第四,对企业出口的行业生产率绩效是否存在“合成谬误”这一猜想进行的尝试性实证分析表明,从广义上来讲,在中国有70%以上的工业行业存在所谓的“合成谬误”现象,而仅有不到30%的行业具有出口的行业生产率利得。
基于上述分析,本文还提出了相应的政策启示,具有较强的现实意义。不论是解决当前企业或产业迫在眉睫的转型升级问题,还是完善影响企业效率乃至贸易利得的制度性障碍,都需要我们搭建起一架维系“微观——中(宏)观”层面的桥梁,使得中国企业的出口参与行为更趋理性化,贸易利得更趋合理化。
The research on mutual relationship between firm productivity and export is a basic viewpoint of New-new trade theory. The existing research traces the following two approaches:first is productivity decides firm's export decision behavior; second is export influences productivity. The existing research especially empricial studies have confirmed the following corollary:productivity decides export, and higher productivity prompts export. For the latter approach, research results seem obscure. Export and productivity issue is also an important topic of economic growth theory which focuses on the industry productivity effects by exporting. The general idea of this article is explaining mechanism based on foreign models and Chinese realities, then testing the micro-motivation based on firm level data in China. At the same time, we try to combine firm-level and industry-level together. And the combination of the two levels itself belongs to a new exploration. The policy implications are also expectable.
Theoretically, this paper demonstrates the mechanism between productivity and export, then gives some Chinese extensions based on foreign literatures. Firstly, we extent the heterogeneity characteristics in the export decision model which providing a basic model for the following emprical studies. Secondly, we try to combine the firm-level export and industry-level productivity for the purpose of explaining "learning by exporting" effects, then giving the conjecture of "fallacy of composition" together with initial analysis. Based on these, we raise a new framework which suitable for China and give some empirical studies.
Empirically, we give empirical analysis for the theory hypothesis based on Chinese firm-level data, this includes different perspectives for the same topic and some trial studies. They are as follows:First, this paper provides a synthetic empirical study for "self-selection" hypothesis using both labour productivity and TFP based on fall sample data. Second, we find some "self-selection paradox" characteristics form the ownership perspective, describe it using inverted U shape and give some reasonable explainations. Third, this paper provides a comparative study based on Zhejiang province and Guangdong province for the first time and some political impilcations. Forth, this paper gives a trial empirical analysis for the conjecture of "fallacy of composition", and gives part of explainations using the former confirmed paradox characteristics.
The conclusions are as follows:First, firm's labour productivity has negative effects on its export propensity which is contrary to the "self-selection" hypothesis and may be caused by our trade pattern of processing trade; TFP has positive effects on its export propensity which is consistent with the "self-selection" hypothesis and may be ascribe to exporting firms'better soft environment. Second, firm's TFP has different effects on export propensity for different ownerships. It indicates that the "self-selection" hypothesis only has limited applicability in China. Third, firms in Zhejiang province show both positive and negative effects for their private nature, while firms in Guangdong province show negative effects for their processing trade pattern. Forth, as for the conjecture of "fallacy of composition", the results show that, broadly, more than 70% industries have the phenomenon of "fallacy of composition" while less than 30% industries have productivity gains from exporting.
Based on the above analysis, this paper also provides us with some usefull political implications which are very significant for realities. No matter solving the urgent problem of firms'upgrading or improving the institutions which block its efficiency or gains from trade, we need to bridge between the micro-level and macro-level, which could make Chinese firms'export participation become rational and gains from trade become reasonable.
理论上,本文从已有经典模型出发,引入中国现实进行了机理阐述。具体有两个部分：(1)在企业出口决定的理论模型分析中,将影响企业出口决定的异质性特征拓展至更多的维度,为更为全面地探讨“自我选择效应”这一理论假说在中国的适用性问题奠定了一定的理论基础；(2)试图将出口与生产率之间的关系由企业层面过渡到行业层面,进而完成对“出口学习效应”的机理阐述,并对由于企业出口选择与行业生产率绩效之间的利益不对称所导致的“合成谬误”猜想——即企业个体利益与行业或国家整体利益不一致的现象进行了一个初步分析。据此提出一个适合中国的分析框架,进而在实证分析部分给出来自中国的经验证据。
实证上,本文针对上述机理并基于中国企业数据对理论假说进行经验验证,这包括对同一主题从不同视角的考察以及对“合成谬误”猜想的尝试性实证分析。具体有以下几方面：(1)关于企业出口决定的“自我选择效应”这一经典理论假说在中国总体企业中的适用性问题,本文同时使用劳动生产率和TFP进行了更为全面的经验论证；(2)本文基于所有制视角还发现了中国企业出口参与存在部分“自我选择悖论”特征,并将其归结为“倒U形”现象予以描述,同时从所有制结构这一颇具“中国特色”的制度视角加以合理解释；(3)本文给出了基于典型省域之间的经验比较分析,进而为中国企业出口参与决策提供了更具现实价值的经验参考和政策启示；(4)本文对企业出口的行业生产率“合成谬误”猜想给出了来自中国的尝试性实证检验,并且还利用此前的部分“悖论”特征较为合理地解释了这一现象。
主要的研究结论是：(1)基于中国总体企业出口行为的分析表明,就劳动生产率而言,其对出口决定具有显著的负向影响,与“自我选择”假说相悖,这种所谓的“悖论”现象主要由我国特有的加工贸易占主导的贸易模式所致；而对TFP来讲,其对出口决定却表现出稳健的正向影响,符合“自我选择”假说,这可能归因于出口企业具有相对较好的“软环境”。第二,基于所有制视角的分析表明,不同所有制企业中生产率对出口倾向的影响存在巨大差异,即“自我选择效应”在中国仅具有有限的适用性,而这种差异更多的是由所有制背后所隐藏的特殊制度因素所造成的。第三,基于典型省域的企业出口决定比较分析表明,浙江因其高比重的民营经济并受特殊的制度环境影响而表现出符合与违背“自我选择”假说的现象并存；而广东则因其高比重的外资企业及其所从事的加工贸易表现出“一边倒”的“自我选择悖论”特征。第四,对企业出口的行业生产率绩效是否存在“合成谬误”这一猜想进行的尝试性实证分析表明,从广义上来讲,在中国有70%以上的工业行业存在所谓的“合成谬误”现象,而仅有不到30%的行业具有出口的行业生产率利得。
基于上述分析,本文还提出了相应的政策启示,具有较强的现实意义。不论是解决当前企业或产业迫在眉睫的转型升级问题,还是完善影响企业效率乃至贸易利得的制度性障碍,都需要我们搭建起一架维系“微观——中(宏)观”层面的桥梁,使得中国企业的出口参与行为更趋理性化,贸易利得更趋合理化。
The research on mutual relationship between firm productivity and export is a basic viewpoint of New-new trade theory. The existing research traces the following two approaches:first is productivity decides firm's export decision behavior; second is export influences productivity. The existing research especially empricial studies have confirmed the following corollary:productivity decides export, and higher productivity prompts export. For the latter approach, research results seem obscure. Export and productivity issue is also an important topic of economic growth theory which focuses on the industry productivity effects by exporting. The general idea of this article is explaining mechanism based on foreign models and Chinese realities, then testing the micro-motivation based on firm level data in China. At the same time, we try to combine firm-level and industry-level together. And the combination of the two levels itself belongs to a new exploration. The policy implications are also expectable.
Theoretically, this paper demonstrates the mechanism between productivity and export, then gives some Chinese extensions based on foreign literatures. Firstly, we extent the heterogeneity characteristics in the export decision model which providing a basic model for the following emprical studies. Secondly, we try to combine the firm-level export and industry-level productivity for the purpose of explaining "learning by exporting" effects, then giving the conjecture of "fallacy of composition" together with initial analysis. Based on these, we raise a new framework which suitable for China and give some empirical studies.
Empirically, we give empirical analysis for the theory hypothesis based on Chinese firm-level data, this includes different perspectives for the same topic and some trial studies. They are as follows:First, this paper provides a synthetic empirical study for "self-selection" hypothesis using both labour productivity and TFP based on fall sample data. Second, we find some "self-selection paradox" characteristics form the ownership perspective, describe it using inverted U shape and give some reasonable explainations. Third, this paper provides a comparative study based on Zhejiang province and Guangdong province for the first time and some political impilcations. Forth, this paper gives a trial empirical analysis for the conjecture of "fallacy of composition", and gives part of explainations using the former confirmed paradox characteristics.
The conclusions are as follows:First, firm's labour productivity has negative effects on its export propensity which is contrary to the "self-selection" hypothesis and may be caused by our trade pattern of processing trade; TFP has positive effects on its export propensity which is consistent with the "self-selection" hypothesis and may be ascribe to exporting firms'better soft environment. Second, firm's TFP has different effects on export propensity for different ownerships. It indicates that the "self-selection" hypothesis only has limited applicability in China. Third, firms in Zhejiang province show both positive and negative effects for their private nature, while firms in Guangdong province show negative effects for their processing trade pattern. Forth, as for the conjecture of "fallacy of composition", the results show that, broadly, more than 70% industries have the phenomenon of "fallacy of composition" while less than 30% industries have productivity gains from exporting.
Based on the above analysis, this paper also provides us with some usefull political implications which are very significant for realities. No matter solving the urgent problem of firms'upgrading or improving the institutions which block its efficiency or gains from trade, we need to bridge between the micro-level and macro-level, which could make Chinese firms'export participation become rational and gains from trade become reasonable.
引文
① "A model is a simplified abstract view of the complex reality",原文出自于Hans Freudenthal (1951), The Concept and the Role of the Model in Mathematics and Natural and Social Sciences, pp:8-9.
① Melitz(2008)的“国际贸易与异质性企业”一文已被权威的《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》所收录,这进一步印证了该贸易理论阶段的重要影响力以及国际贸易的未来研究路径和发展趋向。关于该词条的详细阐释可参见：Melitz, Marc J. "international trade and heterogeneous firms",The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.Second Edition.Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume.Palgrave Macmillan,2008.
①该节的部分内容已发表在《世界经济》,可参见赵伟、赵金亮、韩媛媛(2011)。
②富兰克林·阿·茹特.李莫凯、蒋黔贵译.进入国际市场的战略[M].北京：中国经济出版社,1992：p.10。
①Roberts and Tybout(1997)和Sjoholm(2003)等研究均证实了该变量对出口决定的显著影响。
②关于国内制度因素对出口扩张的影响可参见朱希伟等(2005)和张杰等(2008)。
①该节的部分内容已发表在《财贸经济》,可参见赵伟、赵金亮(2011)。
①该节的部分内容已发表在《当代经济科学》,并被《中国社会科学文摘》转载,可参见赵伟、赵金亮、韩媛媛(2011)。
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[211]张杰、李勇、刘志彪.出口促进中国企业生产率提高吗?——来自中国本土制造业企业的经验证据：1999-2003[J].管理世界,2009(12)：11-26
[212]张杰、张培丽、黄泰岩.市场分割推动了中国企业出口吗?[J].经济研究,2010(8)：29-41
[213]张亚斌、车鸣、易先忠. “合成谬误”与中国商品贸易条件恶化[J].世界经济研究,2010(8)：33-38
[214]郑玉歆.全要素生产率的再认识——用TFP分析经济增长质量存在的若干局限[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2007(9)：3-11
[215]朱希伟、金祥荣、罗德明.国内市场分割与中国对外贸易扩张[J].经济研究,2005(12)：68-76
① Melitz(2008)的“国际贸易与异质性企业”一文已被权威的《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》所收录,这进一步印证了该贸易理论阶段的重要影响力以及国际贸易的未来研究路径和发展趋向。关于该词条的详细阐释可参见：Melitz, Marc J. "international trade and heterogeneous firms",The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.Second Edition.Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume.Palgrave Macmillan,2008.
①该节的部分内容已发表在《世界经济》,可参见赵伟、赵金亮、韩媛媛(2011)。
②富兰克林·阿·茹特.李莫凯、蒋黔贵译.进入国际市场的战略[M].北京：中国经济出版社,1992：p.10。
①Roberts and Tybout(1997)和Sjoholm(2003)等研究均证实了该变量对出口决定的显著影响。
②关于国内制度因素对出口扩张的影响可参见朱希伟等(2005)和张杰等(2008)。
①该节的部分内容已发表在《财贸经济》,可参见赵伟、赵金亮(2011)。
①该节的部分内容已发表在《当代经济科学》,并被《中国社会科学文摘》转载,可参见赵伟、赵金亮、韩媛媛(2011)。
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