中国金融业集聚及影响因素研究
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摘要
金融是经济发展的内生变量和核心要素，在具有优势和条件的地区，金融机构及其相关服务企业的空间运动和发展呈现出集中的特点，常以金融业集聚（群）的形式出现，并可能形成金融中心。金融业集聚（中心）现象引起国内外学者的关注。但已有关于中国金融业集聚理论与实证的研究，由于忽视了空间性、异质性或时空尺度分析狭窄等问题，相关研究仍需拓展和完善。在区域经济学理论研究框架下，新新经济地理学以异质性视角探讨了微观异质劳动者、企业异质如何影响总体经济的形成与发展，重新解释了现实中的产业集聚、要素流动与经济活动的地理分布的关系，对解释中国区域发展差异具有重要理论与现实意义。空间计量经济学理论认为一个地区的空间单元上的某种经济地理现象或某一属性值与邻近地区空间的单元上同一现象或属性值是相关的，几乎所有的空间数据都具有空间依赖性、异质性，打破了大多数经典统计和计量分析中相互独立、同质性的基本假设。因此，本文运用新新经济地理学等相关理论，考虑空间性、异质性对金融业集聚的作用，以空间计量经济学等为研究方法，分析中国金融业集聚及其影响因素、问题及成因，以期对其今后的发展提供一定的参考价值。
本文梳理了金融业集聚的基本理论及相关文献，在进行初步探讨和总结基础上，分析了规模经济、空间区位、信息流等对金融业集聚的影响机制，与此同时，金融业集聚的形成和发展也影响了规模经济、区位、信息流等，这些要素与金融业集聚是相互影响、相互作用的，形成循环累积因果关系。在此基础上，归纳了对外开放、工业支撑、经济水平、人力资本、知识溢出、城乡居民储蓄、规模经济、城市环境、政府支撑是中国金融业集聚发展的主要影响因素。就金融业发展及集聚路径，金融产业的自身特性为其产生提供了可能性，对外开放是其外部动力，经济水平是其必然性前提，人力资本和专业机构是其核心动力，区位条件是其基础条件，政府规划引导及政策其外在推动力，金融机构的不同战略与结构是其分布的内在决定因素，金融资源供给和需求力是其形成基础，金融信息腹地是其引力，规模经济加快了其形成，金融业集聚地（中心）是其形成的支撑，城市功能扩张是其演化和转移的动力因素。
本文回顾和总结了中国金融业及其主要的银行业、证券业、保险业的发展历程。然后，基于数据可获得性，分区域层面、省域层面、城市层面、分行业层面详细分析了改革开放以来中国金融业集聚态势。总体上，中国金融业空间集聚态势明显，程度逐年提高，大多集聚于东部沿海省份，四大经济区内集聚现象明显但特点不同，有区域核心城市或人口规模大的省份集聚明显，经济增长动力强劲的省份发展水平提高迅速，四大经济区外围省份发展水平有所提高，东部沿海的扩散作用没有完全充分发挥，西部等地区集聚态势需要加强。整体上，区域金融业集聚发展呈非均衡性状态。这是基于地区、省市、城市的经济基础与经济发展模式、资本形成和累积能力、人口规模、区域经济一体化实施程度、金融资源的流动性、政策支撑力度等不同，具有异质性，影响和造成了中国金融业发展及集聚的差异性。
在空间计量经济学框架下，基于数据可获得性，本文采用1992-2010年中国省际面板数据，选用“地理”空间权重矩阵(W)，基于金融资源的省级差异性考虑了异质性，构建了金融业集聚影响因素空间计量模型，分别对空间滞后模型和空间误差模型进行估计，提供了相关计量检验。首先，运用区位嫡法计算了1992-2010年中国31个省的金融业集聚程度，并对其进行空间统计分析。结果显示：1992年、2001年和2010年的金融产业存在着显著的全域空间相关性；进一步分析了1992年、2001年、2010年省域存在着显著的局域空间相关性，根据全局Moran’s I指数、散点图和各省际区域的空间相关模式，认为中国省域金融业集聚存在着地理空间分布上的依赖性和异质性。其次，依上述文献，选择了知识溢出、经济发展水平、人力资本、对外开放等9个指标作为影响中国金融业集聚的影响因素，运用于Arcviews3.3和Geoda0.9.1等软件分别进行最小二乘回归和空间计量建模，对比1993、2001、2010年中国金融产业集聚影响因素的空间计量模型，结果表明，中国金融业集聚在省域之间有较强的空间依赖性和正的空间溢出效应，并结合中国社会经济、金融业不同阶段的发展特点和现状，以静态和动态角度详细分析了中国金融业集聚影响因素的变化。
在理论及实证基础上，阐述了中国金融业集聚发展的问题及成因。以此为基础，基于中国省域间金融业集聚具有正的溢出效应，本文认为各省域应积极加强相邻之间的区域金融合作，减少相邻之间的金融交往障碍。结合中国金融业及其集聚发展现状、态势，并借鉴国外金融中心发展经验，对今后金融业发展及其集聚提出了政策建议：借助国民经济发展推力，搭建金融集聚战略支撑；构建和谐金融市场体系，引导金融资源自由流动；合理优化布局金融分区，发挥金融极化扩散效应；营造省域金融互动机制，实施不同区域金融集聚发展模式。
Under the regional economics theory research framework, new economicgeography theory explains that how the homogenous labors and the location choicebehavior of the enterprise affect the formation and development of spatialheterogeneity. New New economic geography theory discusses how the microheterogeneous workers and enterprise heterogeneity affect the formation anddevelopment of the overall economy on the view of heterogeneity and also re-explainthe relationship among industry agglomeration, the flow of factors and thegeographical distribution of economic activities. Finance is not only the endogenousvariable but also the core essential factor of economic development. In those areaswith good conditions, the spatial movement and development of the financial serviceorganizations show the tendency of agglomeration. The developments of mature areasoften take the form of financial industry cluster (group). Some cities even formfinancial Centre. With regard to financial industry agglomeration (center), Chinese andforeign researchers pay more attention to this phenomenon. Related researches arenot working very well on China's financial industry agglomeration theory andempirical research due to the ignore of the space or heterogeneity and still needs to beexpanded and improved. Spatial econometrics theory states that a certain economicgeography phenomenon or a certain characteristic of a regional spatial unit would beclosely related to a certain economic geography phenomenon or a certain characteristicof the neighborhood space units; almost all the spatial data are spatial dependence andheterogeneity; the underlying assumptions that most classical statistical andeconometric analysis are independent of each other and homogeneous are not valid.Therefore, this paper gives full consideration to the function of the financial industryagglomeration on the view of spatiality and heterogeneity by using spatial econometricmethod to study the influence factors of the financial industry agglomeration in orderto provide more valuable advices for China's financial sector and agglomerationdevelopment in the future.
On the basis of the preliminary discussion and summary，this paper did a lot of researches on the fundamental theory and related documents about financialagglomeration. Also analyzed the impact mechanism of the financial industryagglomeration on scale economy， location and information flow. Meanwhile, thefoundation and development of financial industry agglomeration effect thedevelopment of scale economy, location and information flow. These factors andfinancial industry agglomeration effect and influence by each other and form cyclingand accumulated relationship. On this basis, summarizes the main influencing factorsfor the development of Chinese financial industry agglomeration as the open-door tothe outside world, industry support, the economy level, human capital, knowledgespillover, urban and rural residents savings, economies scale, city environment andgovernment support. Furthermore, show the possibilities of formation according to thefinancial sector development and agglomeration path, the financial industry's owncharacteristics. Opening to the outside world is its external power, the economic levelis the necessary condition, professional institutions and human capital are the corepower, geographical situation is the basic condition, government planning and policyare the external driving force, different strategies and structure of financial institutionsare the internal determinants, the demand and supply of financial resources are itsformation basis, financial information hinterland is its gravitational pull, scaleeconomy accelerate the formation, financial industry agglomeration (center) is thesupport for formation, city function expansion is the power factor of evolution andtransfer.
According to spatial econometric framework, the main concern of this paper is tobuild the spatial measurement model for industry agglomeration influence factors byusing the Chinese provincial panel data from1992to2010. Also, selects thegeographical spatial weighted matrix (w), considers heterogeneity according to thedifferent level of financial resources in different provinces, verifies the existence offinancial industry agglomeration spatial dependencies, separately estimates the spatiallag model and spatial error model, provides relevant measurement test. First, this papercalculates the financial industry cluster degree for China’s31provinces from1992to2010by using regional office method and carries on the spatial statistical analysis. Theresults show that there are significant global spatial correlation of financial industry in1992,2001,2010and significant local spatial correlation existed in provinces in1992,2001and2010. The provincial distribution pattern of China's financial industry agglomeration mainly presents the characteristics that the east region is high and westregion is low. According to global Moran’s index scatter plot, the provincial spatialcorrelation model, and I we conclude that there are dependence and heterogeneity thatexisted in geographical spatial distribution for China provincial financial industryagglomeration. In addition, by testing the model in1993,2001,2010, thegoodness-of-fit of R2is maximum in spatial error model, the natural logarithm Log Lis maximum, likelihood ratio values LR is maximum. Yet, red pool informationcriterion AIC and SC Schwartz standards are minimum. Therefore this paper haschosen optimal spatial error model among the three models. Furthermore, selected nineindexes as the influence factors for China's financial industry agglomeration, such asknowledge spillover, economy development level, human capital, opening to theoutside world and so on. Built the Least squares regression and spatial econometricmodeling by using Arcviews3.3, Geoda0.9.1and other software. Consequently, theempirical analysis to compare the spatial econometric model in1993,2001,2010showsthat China's financial industry agglomeration has strong spatial dependence amongprovinces and has strong positive spatial spillover effects. Finally, this paper analyzedthe influence factors and changes of China's financial industry agglomeration on staticand dynamic view separately combined with the development characteristics andcurrent situation of china’s economy and finance in different stages.
In addition, this article reviewed and summarized the development process ofChinese financial industry and its main bank industry, securities industry and insuranceindustry. Then, based on the data availability, analyzed the current status and trend ofChina's financial industry agglomeration by the level of region, province, city andindustry since the reform and opening. Currently, the tendency of financial industryagglomeration is obvious, agglomeration degree increase annually, most agglomerationconcentrated in the eastern coastal provinces. The fact is that concentrationphenomenon is obvious in the four major economic zone but with differentcharacteristics. The concentration phenomenon is obvious in those provinces that haveregional core cities or large population. And, financial sector development increasesrapidly in those provinces that have powerful economic growth force. The financedevelopment level has improved in those provinces that are outside the four majoreconomic zones. However, the expansion role of the eastern coastal industry are notfully played, the financial industry agglomeration situation need to be strengthened in the western region and all the regional development presented unbalance situation.The differences of economic basis, economic development model, regional capitalformation, accumulation ability, population scale, the implementation degree ofregional economic integration, the government support policy and the liquidity offinancial resources effected and caused the differences of China’s financial industrydevelopment and agglomeration.
In summary, based on above mentioned theories and empirical analysis, this paperconcludes that Chinese provinces should strengthen regional financial cooperationamong adjacent province areas, reduce the financial communication disorders.Moreover, provide policy advices for future development: setup the financial strategiessupports with the help of national economic development power; build a harmoniousfinancial market system by guiding the financial resources flow freely; reasonablyoptimize financial partition layout and financial polarization diffusion effect; Create aprovincial financial interaction mechanism, implement different regional developmentmode.
本文梳理了金融业集聚的基本理论及相关文献，在进行初步探讨和总结基础上，分析了规模经济、空间区位、信息流等对金融业集聚的影响机制，与此同时，金融业集聚的形成和发展也影响了规模经济、区位、信息流等，这些要素与金融业集聚是相互影响、相互作用的，形成循环累积因果关系。在此基础上，归纳了对外开放、工业支撑、经济水平、人力资本、知识溢出、城乡居民储蓄、规模经济、城市环境、政府支撑是中国金融业集聚发展的主要影响因素。就金融业发展及集聚路径，金融产业的自身特性为其产生提供了可能性，对外开放是其外部动力，经济水平是其必然性前提，人力资本和专业机构是其核心动力，区位条件是其基础条件，政府规划引导及政策其外在推动力，金融机构的不同战略与结构是其分布的内在决定因素，金融资源供给和需求力是其形成基础，金融信息腹地是其引力，规模经济加快了其形成，金融业集聚地（中心）是其形成的支撑，城市功能扩张是其演化和转移的动力因素。
本文回顾和总结了中国金融业及其主要的银行业、证券业、保险业的发展历程。然后，基于数据可获得性，分区域层面、省域层面、城市层面、分行业层面详细分析了改革开放以来中国金融业集聚态势。总体上，中国金融业空间集聚态势明显，程度逐年提高，大多集聚于东部沿海省份，四大经济区内集聚现象明显但特点不同，有区域核心城市或人口规模大的省份集聚明显，经济增长动力强劲的省份发展水平提高迅速，四大经济区外围省份发展水平有所提高，东部沿海的扩散作用没有完全充分发挥，西部等地区集聚态势需要加强。整体上，区域金融业集聚发展呈非均衡性状态。这是基于地区、省市、城市的经济基础与经济发展模式、资本形成和累积能力、人口规模、区域经济一体化实施程度、金融资源的流动性、政策支撑力度等不同，具有异质性，影响和造成了中国金融业发展及集聚的差异性。
在空间计量经济学框架下，基于数据可获得性，本文采用1992-2010年中国省际面板数据，选用“地理”空间权重矩阵(W)，基于金融资源的省级差异性考虑了异质性，构建了金融业集聚影响因素空间计量模型，分别对空间滞后模型和空间误差模型进行估计，提供了相关计量检验。首先，运用区位嫡法计算了1992-2010年中国31个省的金融业集聚程度，并对其进行空间统计分析。结果显示：1992年、2001年和2010年的金融产业存在着显著的全域空间相关性；进一步分析了1992年、2001年、2010年省域存在着显著的局域空间相关性，根据全局Moran’s I指数、散点图和各省际区域的空间相关模式，认为中国省域金融业集聚存在着地理空间分布上的依赖性和异质性。其次，依上述文献，选择了知识溢出、经济发展水平、人力资本、对外开放等9个指标作为影响中国金融业集聚的影响因素，运用于Arcviews3.3和Geoda0.9.1等软件分别进行最小二乘回归和空间计量建模，对比1993、2001、2010年中国金融产业集聚影响因素的空间计量模型，结果表明，中国金融业集聚在省域之间有较强的空间依赖性和正的空间溢出效应，并结合中国社会经济、金融业不同阶段的发展特点和现状，以静态和动态角度详细分析了中国金融业集聚影响因素的变化。
在理论及实证基础上，阐述了中国金融业集聚发展的问题及成因。以此为基础，基于中国省域间金融业集聚具有正的溢出效应，本文认为各省域应积极加强相邻之间的区域金融合作，减少相邻之间的金融交往障碍。结合中国金融业及其集聚发展现状、态势，并借鉴国外金融中心发展经验，对今后金融业发展及其集聚提出了政策建议：借助国民经济发展推力，搭建金融集聚战略支撑；构建和谐金融市场体系，引导金融资源自由流动；合理优化布局金融分区，发挥金融极化扩散效应；营造省域金融互动机制，实施不同区域金融集聚发展模式。
Under the regional economics theory research framework, new economicgeography theory explains that how the homogenous labors and the location choicebehavior of the enterprise affect the formation and development of spatialheterogeneity. New New economic geography theory discusses how the microheterogeneous workers and enterprise heterogeneity affect the formation anddevelopment of the overall economy on the view of heterogeneity and also re-explainthe relationship among industry agglomeration, the flow of factors and thegeographical distribution of economic activities. Finance is not only the endogenousvariable but also the core essential factor of economic development. In those areaswith good conditions, the spatial movement and development of the financial serviceorganizations show the tendency of agglomeration. The developments of mature areasoften take the form of financial industry cluster (group). Some cities even formfinancial Centre. With regard to financial industry agglomeration (center), Chinese andforeign researchers pay more attention to this phenomenon. Related researches arenot working very well on China's financial industry agglomeration theory andempirical research due to the ignore of the space or heterogeneity and still needs to beexpanded and improved. Spatial econometrics theory states that a certain economicgeography phenomenon or a certain characteristic of a regional spatial unit would beclosely related to a certain economic geography phenomenon or a certain characteristicof the neighborhood space units; almost all the spatial data are spatial dependence andheterogeneity; the underlying assumptions that most classical statistical andeconometric analysis are independent of each other and homogeneous are not valid.Therefore, this paper gives full consideration to the function of the financial industryagglomeration on the view of spatiality and heterogeneity by using spatial econometricmethod to study the influence factors of the financial industry agglomeration in orderto provide more valuable advices for China's financial sector and agglomerationdevelopment in the future.
On the basis of the preliminary discussion and summary，this paper did a lot of researches on the fundamental theory and related documents about financialagglomeration. Also analyzed the impact mechanism of the financial industryagglomeration on scale economy， location and information flow. Meanwhile, thefoundation and development of financial industry agglomeration effect thedevelopment of scale economy, location and information flow. These factors andfinancial industry agglomeration effect and influence by each other and form cyclingand accumulated relationship. On this basis, summarizes the main influencing factorsfor the development of Chinese financial industry agglomeration as the open-door tothe outside world, industry support, the economy level, human capital, knowledgespillover, urban and rural residents savings, economies scale, city environment andgovernment support. Furthermore, show the possibilities of formation according to thefinancial sector development and agglomeration path, the financial industry's owncharacteristics. Opening to the outside world is its external power, the economic levelis the necessary condition, professional institutions and human capital are the corepower, geographical situation is the basic condition, government planning and policyare the external driving force, different strategies and structure of financial institutionsare the internal determinants, the demand and supply of financial resources are itsformation basis, financial information hinterland is its gravitational pull, scaleeconomy accelerate the formation, financial industry agglomeration (center) is thesupport for formation, city function expansion is the power factor of evolution andtransfer.
According to spatial econometric framework, the main concern of this paper is tobuild the spatial measurement model for industry agglomeration influence factors byusing the Chinese provincial panel data from1992to2010. Also, selects thegeographical spatial weighted matrix (w), considers heterogeneity according to thedifferent level of financial resources in different provinces, verifies the existence offinancial industry agglomeration spatial dependencies, separately estimates the spatiallag model and spatial error model, provides relevant measurement test. First, this papercalculates the financial industry cluster degree for China’s31provinces from1992to2010by using regional office method and carries on the spatial statistical analysis. Theresults show that there are significant global spatial correlation of financial industry in1992,2001,2010and significant local spatial correlation existed in provinces in1992,2001and2010. The provincial distribution pattern of China's financial industry agglomeration mainly presents the characteristics that the east region is high and westregion is low. According to global Moran’s index scatter plot, the provincial spatialcorrelation model, and I we conclude that there are dependence and heterogeneity thatexisted in geographical spatial distribution for China provincial financial industryagglomeration. In addition, by testing the model in1993,2001,2010, thegoodness-of-fit of R2is maximum in spatial error model, the natural logarithm Log Lis maximum, likelihood ratio values LR is maximum. Yet, red pool informationcriterion AIC and SC Schwartz standards are minimum. Therefore this paper haschosen optimal spatial error model among the three models. Furthermore, selected nineindexes as the influence factors for China's financial industry agglomeration, such asknowledge spillover, economy development level, human capital, opening to theoutside world and so on. Built the Least squares regression and spatial econometricmodeling by using Arcviews3.3, Geoda0.9.1and other software. Consequently, theempirical analysis to compare the spatial econometric model in1993,2001,2010showsthat China's financial industry agglomeration has strong spatial dependence amongprovinces and has strong positive spatial spillover effects. Finally, this paper analyzedthe influence factors and changes of China's financial industry agglomeration on staticand dynamic view separately combined with the development characteristics andcurrent situation of china’s economy and finance in different stages.
In addition, this article reviewed and summarized the development process ofChinese financial industry and its main bank industry, securities industry and insuranceindustry. Then, based on the data availability, analyzed the current status and trend ofChina's financial industry agglomeration by the level of region, province, city andindustry since the reform and opening. Currently, the tendency of financial industryagglomeration is obvious, agglomeration degree increase annually, most agglomerationconcentrated in the eastern coastal provinces. The fact is that concentrationphenomenon is obvious in the four major economic zone but with differentcharacteristics. The concentration phenomenon is obvious in those provinces that haveregional core cities or large population. And, financial sector development increasesrapidly in those provinces that have powerful economic growth force. The financedevelopment level has improved in those provinces that are outside the four majoreconomic zones. However, the expansion role of the eastern coastal industry are notfully played, the financial industry agglomeration situation need to be strengthened in the western region and all the regional development presented unbalance situation.The differences of economic basis, economic development model, regional capitalformation, accumulation ability, population scale, the implementation degree ofregional economic integration, the government support policy and the liquidity offinancial resources effected and caused the differences of China’s financial industrydevelopment and agglomeration.
In summary, based on above mentioned theories and empirical analysis, this paperconcludes that Chinese provinces should strengthen regional financial cooperationamong adjacent province areas, reduce the financial communication disorders.Moreover, provide policy advices for future development: setup the financial strategiessupports with the help of national economic development power; build a harmoniousfinancial market system by guiding the financial resources flow freely; reasonablyoptimize financial partition layout and financial polarization diffusion effect; Create aprovincial financial interaction mechanism, implement different regional developmentmode.
引文
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