低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力影响因素实证分析
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摘要
全球气候变化是人类面临的共同挑战,中国也是全球气候变化的最大受害者之一。低碳经济已成为世界各国经济发展的重要战略。在经过2008年的金融危机后,低碳行业2008年的收入仍比2007年大幅增长了75%,因此,对低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力的综合分析颇为重要。通过研究低碳经济板块企业的盈利能力及其影响因素,对规范低碳经济板块企业的健康稳定发展有深刻的意义。
本文基于国内外对盈利能力相关研究的基础上,对低碳经济板块上市公司的盈利现状进行分析,并结合我国目前对低碳经济板块企业的相关扶持优惠政策,指出当前我国低碳经济企业经营过程中存在的问题。进而运用统计软件SPSS17.0和相关计量模型对我国低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力影响因素进行分析。本文选取了2009年该板块57家上市公司为样本,以销售毛利率、营业利润率、总资产收益率、净资产收益率和每股收益为评价企业盈利能力的指标,运用因子分析法得出综合评价体系,进而从资本结构、股权比例、公司规模、研发能力、成长能力和资产运营能力六个方面考虑了影响低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力的因素,以回归模型对此进行实证分析。
实证结果表明,资产负债率和第二至第十股东持股比例低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力呈显著负相关关系,总资产对数与低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力呈显著正相关关系。为了引导低碳经济板块上市公司合理快速发展,由实证结果出发,提出改善资本结构、优化股权结构和扩大公司规模等方面建议加强企业的内部经营管理,最后结合当前我国对低碳企业的相关优惠政策提出加强政府扶持力度可以提升低碳型上市公司的盈利水平。
The global climate change is a common challenge which the human being is meeting with,and also China has become one of the ultimate victims.Low carbon economy has become an important strategy in progress of economic development.After financial crisis in 2008,the income of the trade of low carbon increased 75 percent than 2007.Therefore,it is necessary to analyse the capacity of profitability of the low carbon companies.The study on the capacity of profitability and the influencing factors of the low carbon companies exerts a profound impact on the healthy and steady development of standard in the low carbon companies.
On the base of home and abroad research in the capacity of profitability and analysis of the profitability of the low carbon companies,this paper points out some current problems during the enterprise management process,in light of the related preferential policies to the low carbon companies.Than the effect of factors on the capacity of profitability from the low carbon companies is analyzed with SPSS 17.0 and related model.This paper investigates 57 listes companies in 2009 and makes a comprehensive envaluation system through the factor analysis from the ROS,rate of profit,total asset payment rate,net asset profit rate and EPS.Then the envaluation system is tested against by Regression Model considering six content areas:capital structure, ownership ratio,scale of the corporation,the ability of study, growth and assets operation.
The experimental results show that asset debt ratio makes negative correlation with the proportion of the 2rd to 10th shareholders and the capacity of profitability of low carbon companies, and asset logarithm is positively correlated with the capacity of profitability of low carbon companies.In order to make the low carbon companies growing quickly and healthily and from the results,the author puts forward proposals to improve enterprise effectiveness and efficiency of internal controls including changing the capital structure,ownership and expanding the companies.At last, in light of current preference policies to the low carbon enterprise,the strength of government support could improve enterprise profit.
本文基于国内外对盈利能力相关研究的基础上,对低碳经济板块上市公司的盈利现状进行分析,并结合我国目前对低碳经济板块企业的相关扶持优惠政策,指出当前我国低碳经济企业经营过程中存在的问题。进而运用统计软件SPSS17.0和相关计量模型对我国低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力影响因素进行分析。本文选取了2009年该板块57家上市公司为样本,以销售毛利率、营业利润率、总资产收益率、净资产收益率和每股收益为评价企业盈利能力的指标,运用因子分析法得出综合评价体系,进而从资本结构、股权比例、公司规模、研发能力、成长能力和资产运营能力六个方面考虑了影响低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力的因素,以回归模型对此进行实证分析。
实证结果表明,资产负债率和第二至第十股东持股比例低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力呈显著负相关关系,总资产对数与低碳经济板块上市公司盈利能力呈显著正相关关系。为了引导低碳经济板块上市公司合理快速发展,由实证结果出发,提出改善资本结构、优化股权结构和扩大公司规模等方面建议加强企业的内部经营管理,最后结合当前我国对低碳企业的相关优惠政策提出加强政府扶持力度可以提升低碳型上市公司的盈利水平。
The global climate change is a common challenge which the human being is meeting with,and also China has become one of the ultimate victims.Low carbon economy has become an important strategy in progress of economic development.After financial crisis in 2008,the income of the trade of low carbon increased 75 percent than 2007.Therefore,it is necessary to analyse the capacity of profitability of the low carbon companies.The study on the capacity of profitability and the influencing factors of the low carbon companies exerts a profound impact on the healthy and steady development of standard in the low carbon companies.
On the base of home and abroad research in the capacity of profitability and analysis of the profitability of the low carbon companies,this paper points out some current problems during the enterprise management process,in light of the related preferential policies to the low carbon companies.Than the effect of factors on the capacity of profitability from the low carbon companies is analyzed with SPSS 17.0 and related model.This paper investigates 57 listes companies in 2009 and makes a comprehensive envaluation system through the factor analysis from the ROS,rate of profit,total asset payment rate,net asset profit rate and EPS.Then the envaluation system is tested against by Regression Model considering six content areas:capital structure, ownership ratio,scale of the corporation,the ability of study, growth and assets operation.
The experimental results show that asset debt ratio makes negative correlation with the proportion of the 2rd to 10th shareholders and the capacity of profitability of low carbon companies, and asset logarithm is positively correlated with the capacity of profitability of low carbon companies.In order to make the low carbon companies growing quickly and healthily and from the results,the author puts forward proposals to improve enterprise effectiveness and efficiency of internal controls including changing the capital structure,ownership and expanding the companies.At last, in light of current preference policies to the low carbon enterprise,the strength of government support could improve enterprise profit.
引文
[1]低碳行业收入超过航天与国防业总[OL]http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001028812,2009-9-18
[2]王元芳.我国上市盈利能力行业差异的实证研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2007
[3]Robert C. Higgins, Analysis For Financial Management (5th), McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc,1998, 37-38
[4]O'Glove T.L. Quality of Eamings[M]. The Free Press. New York 1987.10-22
[5]Altman Edward I.Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy[J].Journal of Finance,Sep.2002
[6]胡裕杰.基于层次分析法的企业盈利能力模糊综合评价体系研究[D].广东：广东外语外贸大学,2008
[7]王燕.企业盈利能力的评价[D]].陕西：西安建筑科技大学,2006
[8]傅再育.中国上市公司盈利能力模型分析[D].四川：四川大学,2005
[9]MikeSibley, Theseareh for Industry Finaneing Patterns[J].Ameriean Business Review,1991,(1):85-91
[10]莫生红,上市公司资本结构与盈利能力的实证研究一基于我国房地产行业[J].财会通讯.2008,08：15～17
[11]段小华,鲁若愚.企业能力的竞争绩效评价指标及模型[J].经济师,2002,01
[12]李晓荣,王宪良.因子分析法在上市公司盈利能力分析中的应用[J].财经科学,2002,06：218-220
[13]丁‘玉芳,单广荣，基于模糊数学方法下的企业盈利能力评价模型[J].西北民族大学学报,2004,09：10～12
[14]张自武,基于主成分分析的公司盈利能力综合分析与评价[J].昌吉学院学报,2006,04
[15]李雄治、许卫华,基于改进BP神经网络的企业盈利能力测评模型及应用[J].工业技术经济,2006.06：92～96.
[16]顾正阳.影响商业银行盈利能力因素的实证研究[D].浙江：浙江大学2008
[17]孟德凯.中韩科技合作的历史回顾与展望[J].中国科技产业,2009,07：72
[18]谢军安、郝东恒、谢雯.我国发展低碳经济的思路与对策[J].当代经济管理,2008,12：1～7
[19]鲍健强、苗阳、陈锋.低碳经济：人类经济发展方式的新变革[J].中国工业经济,2008,04：153～160
[20]付允、马永欢、刘怡君、牛文元.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2008,03：14～19
[21]卢小祁.南昌发展低碳经济的路径选择研究[J].科技经济市场.2009,07：16～17
[22]周元春、邹骥.中国发展低碳经济的影响因素与对策思考[J].统计与决策,2009,23：99～101
[23]宋帮英、苏方林.我国省域碳排放量与经济发展的GWR实证研究[J].财经科学,2010,04：41～49
[24]Selznick P. Ladesrhip in Administration. A Soeiologieal Inertpretation, Berkeley:Haprer&Row, 1957
[25]AnsofH.I., CoporrateStrategy.NewYork:MeGraw·HillBookComPan,1965
[26]Anderws, K·R., TheConePetofCoProrateStrateg.yBu 仃 Ridge, IL:DowJones-I,1971
[27]Prahalad,C.K.&Gary Hamel. Stragey as Stretch and Leverage Harvard Business Review, March-April,1993
[28]方芳.中国商业银行盈利能力研究[D].上海：同济大学2006
[29]Henderson R,Cockburn I. Measuring competence? Exploring firm effects in pharmaceutical research Strategic Management Journal, Winter Special Issue,1994,(15):63-84
[30]方芳.中国商业银行盈利能力研究[D].上海：同济大学2005
[31]Teece D J, Pisano G, and Shuen A. Dynamic capabilities and strategic management Strategic Management Journal,1997,18(7):509-533
[32]安德鲁.坎贝尔,凯瑟琳.萨默斯.卢斯.核心能力战略：以核心竟争力为基础的战略[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社，1999.9～94.
[33]郭丹颖.浅析国有商业银行的盈利能力[J].商业时代,2007,7：70～84
[34]曾晖.宁波德安环保公司盈利模式研究[D].湖南：中南大学2008
[35]我国明确合同能源管理税收优惠政策[OL]http://www.drcnet.com.cn/DRCNet.Common. Web/docview.aspx?SearchRecordID=2942959&versi on=Integrated&DocID=2460667&leafid=3428&chnid=2172&querystring=%cb%b0%ca%d5%d3 %c5%bb%dd&searchquerystring=%E7%A8%8E%E6%94%B6%E4%BC%98%E6%83%A0&Sea rchItem=subject,2011-2-18
[36]倪德岭.基于因子分析法的上市公司业绩评价模型[D].新疆：石河子大学,2007
[37]潘琐,程小可.上市公司经营业绩的主成分评价方法[J].会计研究,2001,01：32～35
[38]关于KMO与Bartlett球度检验[OL]http://www.witland.com.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=162941&page=1,2010-3-19
[39]回归分析[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/145440.htm#2
[40]营业利润率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/436994.htm
[41]净资产收益率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/114380.htm#2
[42]资产负债率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/134674.htm
[43]流动比率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/10171.htm
[44]总资产周转率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/165505.htm
[45]存货周转率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/742750.htm
[46]主营收入增长率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/1216103.htm
[47]总资产增长率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/1315937.htm
[48]总资产[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/1302958.htm
[2]王元芳.我国上市盈利能力行业差异的实证研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2007
[3]Robert C. Higgins, Analysis For Financial Management (5th), McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc,1998, 37-38
[4]O'Glove T.L. Quality of Eamings[M]. The Free Press. New York 1987.10-22
[5]Altman Edward I.Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy[J].Journal of Finance,Sep.2002
[6]胡裕杰.基于层次分析法的企业盈利能力模糊综合评价体系研究[D].广东：广东外语外贸大学,2008
[7]王燕.企业盈利能力的评价[D]].陕西：西安建筑科技大学,2006
[8]傅再育.中国上市公司盈利能力模型分析[D].四川：四川大学,2005
[9]MikeSibley, Theseareh for Industry Finaneing Patterns[J].Ameriean Business Review,1991,(1):85-91
[10]莫生红,上市公司资本结构与盈利能力的实证研究一基于我国房地产行业[J].财会通讯.2008,08：15～17
[11]段小华,鲁若愚.企业能力的竞争绩效评价指标及模型[J].经济师,2002,01
[12]李晓荣,王宪良.因子分析法在上市公司盈利能力分析中的应用[J].财经科学,2002,06：218-220
[13]丁‘玉芳,单广荣，基于模糊数学方法下的企业盈利能力评价模型[J].西北民族大学学报,2004,09：10～12
[14]张自武,基于主成分分析的公司盈利能力综合分析与评价[J].昌吉学院学报,2006,04
[15]李雄治、许卫华,基于改进BP神经网络的企业盈利能力测评模型及应用[J].工业技术经济,2006.06：92～96.
[16]顾正阳.影响商业银行盈利能力因素的实证研究[D].浙江：浙江大学2008
[17]孟德凯.中韩科技合作的历史回顾与展望[J].中国科技产业,2009,07：72
[18]谢军安、郝东恒、谢雯.我国发展低碳经济的思路与对策[J].当代经济管理,2008,12：1～7
[19]鲍健强、苗阳、陈锋.低碳经济：人类经济发展方式的新变革[J].中国工业经济,2008,04：153～160
[20]付允、马永欢、刘怡君、牛文元.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2008,03：14～19
[21]卢小祁.南昌发展低碳经济的路径选择研究[J].科技经济市场.2009,07：16～17
[22]周元春、邹骥.中国发展低碳经济的影响因素与对策思考[J].统计与决策,2009,23：99～101
[23]宋帮英、苏方林.我国省域碳排放量与经济发展的GWR实证研究[J].财经科学,2010,04：41～49
[24]Selznick P. Ladesrhip in Administration. A Soeiologieal Inertpretation, Berkeley:Haprer&Row, 1957
[25]AnsofH.I., CoporrateStrategy.NewYork:MeGraw·HillBookComPan,1965
[26]Anderws, K·R., TheConePetofCoProrateStrateg.yBu 仃 Ridge, IL:DowJones-I,1971
[27]Prahalad,C.K.&Gary Hamel. Stragey as Stretch and Leverage Harvard Business Review, March-April,1993
[28]方芳.中国商业银行盈利能力研究[D].上海：同济大学2006
[29]Henderson R,Cockburn I. Measuring competence? Exploring firm effects in pharmaceutical research Strategic Management Journal, Winter Special Issue,1994,(15):63-84
[30]方芳.中国商业银行盈利能力研究[D].上海：同济大学2005
[31]Teece D J, Pisano G, and Shuen A. Dynamic capabilities and strategic management Strategic Management Journal,1997,18(7):509-533
[32]安德鲁.坎贝尔,凯瑟琳.萨默斯.卢斯.核心能力战略：以核心竟争力为基础的战略[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社，1999.9～94.
[33]郭丹颖.浅析国有商业银行的盈利能力[J].商业时代,2007,7：70～84
[34]曾晖.宁波德安环保公司盈利模式研究[D].湖南：中南大学2008
[35]我国明确合同能源管理税收优惠政策[OL]http://www.drcnet.com.cn/DRCNet.Common. Web/docview.aspx?SearchRecordID=2942959&versi on=Integrated&DocID=2460667&leafid=3428&chnid=2172&querystring=%cb%b0%ca%d5%d3 %c5%bb%dd&searchquerystring=%E7%A8%8E%E6%94%B6%E4%BC%98%E6%83%A0&Sea rchItem=subject,2011-2-18
[36]倪德岭.基于因子分析法的上市公司业绩评价模型[D].新疆：石河子大学,2007
[37]潘琐,程小可.上市公司经营业绩的主成分评价方法[J].会计研究,2001,01：32～35
[38]关于KMO与Bartlett球度检验[OL]http://www.witland.com.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=162941&page=1,2010-3-19
[39]回归分析[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/145440.htm#2
[40]营业利润率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/436994.htm
[41]净资产收益率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/114380.htm#2
[42]资产负债率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/134674.htm
[43]流动比率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/10171.htm
[44]总资产周转率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/165505.htm
[45]存货周转率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/742750.htm
[46]主营收入增长率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/1216103.htm
[47]总资产增长率[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/1315937.htm
[48]总资产[OL]http://baike.baidu.com/view/1302958.htm