水资源与社会经济协调发展分析模型拓展及应用研究
|
摘要
通过对国内外水资源与社会经济协调发展模型以及相关研究的回顾发现,建立耦合系统状态描述和水资源政策分析功能的水资源与社会经济协调发展分析模型来研究水资源与社会经济协调发展问题,是未来我国水资源管理研究领域最为关注的方向和前沿,也是本文的基本目标。
为实现这一目标,本文拟开展以下几方面研究：
针对现有水资源与社会经济协调发展模型(CWSE)在政策模拟上相对薄弱的缺点,增加描述水资源经济系统的分区域水资源政策分析的一般均衡模型(TERMW)，基于模型耦合技术,构建完成水资源与社会经济协调发展分析模型(CWSE-E)。CWSE-E模型是基于CWSE模型和TERM模型的改进和拓展研究,包括改进水资源节点网络图和构建用于区域间一般均衡分析的水资源子模块。两个局部模型CWSE和TERMW通过投入产出表进行有效衔接,可实现优化预测、模拟计算和政策仿真等功能。
以淮河流域为例,基于投入产出编制方法,编制完成淮河流域2009年竞争型投入产出表。在此基础上,根据TERMW模型数据结构要求,通过对进口产品使用结构矩阵计算、投资系数矩阵构建、区域间贸易矩阵计算、行业用水量及水资源价值计算等处理,得出淮河流域2009年TERMW数据库,为分区域水资源政策分析的一般均衡模型的运行提供数据基础。
基于构建的CWSE-E模型和一致性数据集,开展淮河流域水资源与社会经济协调发展情景方案分析及水资源政策研究,主要内容包括：(1)节水措施、治污措施和生态环境保护对淮河流域水资源利用和社会经济发展的综合影响分析；(2)淮河流域水资源与社会经济协调发展规划情景方案确定；(3)虚拟水政策在淮河流域水资源利用与社会经济发展中的效果评估；(4)水权市场在淮河流域水资源利用和社会经济发展中的效果评估。
According to the review of the studies on Coordinated Water and Socio-Economic development, it has become more important and more necessary to analyse water resources management problems by a coupling model with the function of system state description and water resources policy analysis, which is the basic objectives of this paper.
To achieve this goal, we intend to carry out a study of the following aspects:
In order to overcome the shortcomings on policy simulation of the Coordinated Water and Socio-Economic development model(CWSE), The Enormous Regional Model for Water (TERMW) that can describe the relationships of water resources and socio-economic system is introduced. Based on model coupling technology, the Extensions of Coordinated Water and Socio-Economic development model (CWSE-E) is constructed. The CWSE-E model is the improvement and expansion of the CWSE model and TERM model, including the improving of water source node network diagram and the building the water sub-modules for regional general equilibrium model analysis. The CWSE-E model is can get effective convergence by input-output table, with a fuction of forecasting, simulation, calculation and policy simulation.
The paper compiled2009competitive input-output tables of the Huaihe River Basin based on the input-output method. On this basis, according to the requirements of the TERMW model data structure, the database of TERMW can been drawn by process of calculating of the use structure matrix with imported products, breaking up of non-competitive input-output tables, the construction of investment coefficient matrix, the calculating interregional trade matrix, the assessment of industry water consumption and water revenue, the data can provide the data base for the operation of the general equilibrium model of water resources in the region.
Through the CWSE-E model and the consistency data set, this paper carry out scenarios analysis of coordinated water and socio-economic development in Huaihe River basin.The main contents include:(1) The combined effects of water-saving measures, pollution control measures and the protection of the ecological environment impact on the Huaihe River Basin;(2) the proposed results of coordinated water and socio-economic development of each programming year in Huaihe River Basin;(3)The assessment of virtual water policy in the Huaihe River Basin impact on Water Resources Utilization and socio-economic development;(4) The assessment of water rights market in the Huaihe River Basin impact on water use and socio-economic development.
为实现这一目标,本文拟开展以下几方面研究：
针对现有水资源与社会经济协调发展模型(CWSE)在政策模拟上相对薄弱的缺点,增加描述水资源经济系统的分区域水资源政策分析的一般均衡模型(TERMW)，基于模型耦合技术,构建完成水资源与社会经济协调发展分析模型(CWSE-E)。CWSE-E模型是基于CWSE模型和TERM模型的改进和拓展研究,包括改进水资源节点网络图和构建用于区域间一般均衡分析的水资源子模块。两个局部模型CWSE和TERMW通过投入产出表进行有效衔接,可实现优化预测、模拟计算和政策仿真等功能。
以淮河流域为例,基于投入产出编制方法,编制完成淮河流域2009年竞争型投入产出表。在此基础上,根据TERMW模型数据结构要求,通过对进口产品使用结构矩阵计算、投资系数矩阵构建、区域间贸易矩阵计算、行业用水量及水资源价值计算等处理,得出淮河流域2009年TERMW数据库,为分区域水资源政策分析的一般均衡模型的运行提供数据基础。
基于构建的CWSE-E模型和一致性数据集,开展淮河流域水资源与社会经济协调发展情景方案分析及水资源政策研究,主要内容包括：(1)节水措施、治污措施和生态环境保护对淮河流域水资源利用和社会经济发展的综合影响分析；(2)淮河流域水资源与社会经济协调发展规划情景方案确定；(3)虚拟水政策在淮河流域水资源利用与社会经济发展中的效果评估；(4)水权市场在淮河流域水资源利用和社会经济发展中的效果评估。
According to the review of the studies on Coordinated Water and Socio-Economic development, it has become more important and more necessary to analyse water resources management problems by a coupling model with the function of system state description and water resources policy analysis, which is the basic objectives of this paper.
To achieve this goal, we intend to carry out a study of the following aspects:
In order to overcome the shortcomings on policy simulation of the Coordinated Water and Socio-Economic development model(CWSE), The Enormous Regional Model for Water (TERMW) that can describe the relationships of water resources and socio-economic system is introduced. Based on model coupling technology, the Extensions of Coordinated Water and Socio-Economic development model (CWSE-E) is constructed. The CWSE-E model is the improvement and expansion of the CWSE model and TERM model, including the improving of water source node network diagram and the building the water sub-modules for regional general equilibrium model analysis. The CWSE-E model is can get effective convergence by input-output table, with a fuction of forecasting, simulation, calculation and policy simulation.
The paper compiled2009competitive input-output tables of the Huaihe River Basin based on the input-output method. On this basis, according to the requirements of the TERMW model data structure, the database of TERMW can been drawn by process of calculating of the use structure matrix with imported products, breaking up of non-competitive input-output tables, the construction of investment coefficient matrix, the calculating interregional trade matrix, the assessment of industry water consumption and water revenue, the data can provide the data base for the operation of the general equilibrium model of water resources in the region.
Through the CWSE-E model and the consistency data set, this paper carry out scenarios analysis of coordinated water and socio-economic development in Huaihe River basin.The main contents include:(1) The combined effects of water-saving measures, pollution control measures and the protection of the ecological environment impact on the Huaihe River Basin;(2) the proposed results of coordinated water and socio-economic development of each programming year in Huaihe River Basin;(3)The assessment of virtual water policy in the Huaihe River Basin impact on Water Resources Utilization and socio-economic development;(4) The assessment of water rights market in the Huaihe River Basin impact on water use and socio-economic development.
引文
[1]邢端生.基于可持续发展的水资源配置方案评价研究[D].郑州：郑州大学,2005.
[2]陈家琦,王浩,杨小柳.水资源学[M].北京：科学出版社,2002.
[3]王好芳.区域水资源可持续开发与社会经济协调发展研究[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[4]Noel, J. E., and R. E. Howitt. Conjunctive multibasin management:An optimal control approach. Water Resources Re-search 1982,18(4):753-763
[5]常炳炎,薛松贵,张会言等.黄河流域水资源合理分配和优化调度[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,1998
[6]World Bank.World development report 1992:Development and the environment. Oxford University Press, oxford UK,1992.
[7]William W-G.Yeh. Optimization of real-time hydrothermal system operation[J].Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management,1992,118(6):636-653.
[8]Dragan A S,Godfreg A W. Genetic algorithms for least cost design of water distribution networks[J]. Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management,1997,123(2):67-77.
[9]Lefkoff,L.J.and S.M.Gorelick. Simulating physical processes and economic behavior in saline, irrigated agriculture Model development. Water Resources Research 1990a,26(7):1359-1369.
[10]Lefkoff, L. J., and S. M. Gorelick. Benefits of an irrigation water rental market in a saline stream-aquifer system. Water Resources Research 1990b,26(7):1371-1381.
[11]Harding, B. J., T. B. Sangoyomi, and E. A. Payton. Impacts of a severe drought on Colorado river water resources. Water Resources Bulletin 1995,31(5):815-824.
[12]Booker, J. F. Hydrologic and economic impacts of drought under alternative policy responses. Water Resources Bulletin 1995,31(5):889-907.
[13]Booker, J. F., and R. A. Young. Modeling intrastate and interstate markets for Colorado river water resources. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 1994,26(1):66-87.
[14]Lee, D. J., and R. E. Howitt. Modeling regional agricultural production and salinity control alternatives for water quality policy analysis. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 1996,78(1):41-53.
[15]Faisal, I. M., R. A. Young, and J. W. Warner. Integrated economic-hydrologic modeling for groundwater basin management. Water Resources Development 1997,13(1):21-34
[16]Rao Vemuri.V, Cedeno.Walter. A new genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization in water resource management[A].Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Evolutionary Computation Nov 29-Dec 1 [C],Sponsored by:IEEE 1995:495-500.
[17]Wang.M,Zheng.C. Ground water management optimization using genetic algorithm sand simulated annealing:Formulation and comparison,Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998(3):519-530.
[18]Mashed.Jahangir, Kaluarachchi.Jonah.J. Enhancements to genetic allsorts for optimal groundwater management.Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2000 ASCE:67-73.
[19]Minsker.B.S,Padera.B,Smalley.l.B. Efficient Methods for including Uncertainty and Multiple Objectives in Water Resources Management Models Using Genetic Algorithms.13th International Conference on Computational Methods in Water Resources,Calgary,Alberta(Canada),2000:25-29.
[20]Ximing Cai, A Framework for Sustainability Analysis in Water Resources Management and Application to the Syr Darya Basin. Water Resources Research,2002.VOL.38,NO.0,10.1029/2001 WR000214.
[21]Kaveh Madani-Miguel A.Marino. System dynamics analysis for managing Iran's Zayandeh-Rud river basin. Water Resour Manage,2009,23:2163-2187.
[22]Predrag Prodanovic-Slobodan P. Simonovic. An operational model for support of integrated watershed management. Water Resour Manage (2010)24:1161-1194.
[23]Evan G.R. Davies, Slobodan P. Simonovic. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system. Advances in Water Resources,2011.684-700.
[24]Noelwah R. Netusil, Thomas R. Harris, Chang K. Seung, Jeffrey E. Englin. Impacts of water real location:A combined computable general equilibrium and recreation demand model approach.The Annals of Regional Science,2000,34(4):473-487.
[25]Jerson Kecman,Rafael Kelman.Water allocation for production in a semi-arid region.Water Resources Development,2002,18(3):391-407.
[26]Diao Xinshen, Roe Terry. Can a water market avert the "double-whammy" of trade reform and lead to a "win-win" outcome? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,45:708-723.
[27]Carlos M. Go'mez, Dolores Tirado, Javier Rey-Maquieira. Water exchanges versus water works: Insights from a computable general equilibrium model for the Balearic Islands. Water Resources Research, 2004,40:1-11.
[28]Takayuki HATANO,Takaaki OKUDA. Water resource allocation in the Yellow River Basin,China applying a CGE model [DB/OL]. http://www.iioa.org/pdf/Intermediate-2006/Full%20paper Hatano.pdf, 2013,4.
[29]Shan Feng a, Ling Xia Li, Zhi Gang Duan,Jin Long Zhang. Assessing the impacts of South-to-North Water Transfer Project with decision support systems. Decision Support Systems 42 (2007) 1989-2003.
[30]Rashid Hassan, James Thurlow. Macro-micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes. Agricultural Economics,2011,42(2):235-247.
[31]Llop Maria, Ponce-Alifonso Xavier. A never-ending debate:demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia. WATER POLICY,2012,14(4):694-708.
[32]朱文彬.水资源开发利用与区域经济协调管理模型系统研究[J].水利学报,1995,(11)：31-39.
[33]何希吾,陆亚洲.区域社会经济发展与水资源[J].科学对社会的影响.1996(2)：12-16.
[34]李令跃,甘泓.试论水资源合理配置和承载能力概念与可持续发展之间的关系[J].水科学进展,2000,10；11(3)：307-113.
[35]汀党献.水资源需求分析理论与方法研究[D].中国水利水电科学研究院.2002,12.
[36]贾绍凤,张军岩,张士锋.区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系[J].地理科学进展,区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系,2002.11,21(6)：538-545.
[37]王浩,陈敏建,秦大庸等.西北地区水资源合理配置和承载能力研究[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,2003,1.
[38]王浩,王建华,秦大庸.流域水资源合理配置的研究进展与发展方向[J].水科学进展,2004(1),15(1)：123-128.
[39]倪红珍.基于绿色核算的水资源价值与价格研究[D].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2004.10.
[40]钟淋涓,方国华,国延恒.水资源、社会经济与生态环境相互作用关系研究[J].水利经济.2007.5；25(3)
[41]王浩,秦大庸,汪党献等著.水利与国民经济协调发展研究[M].中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[42]李原园,李云玲,李爱花.全国水资源综合规划编制总体思路与技术路线[J].规划解读,2011,23：36-41.
[43]梅双纬.多目标算法分析研究水资源承载力[D].南京：河海大学,2007.3.
[44]贾绍凤,周长青,燕华云等.西北地区水资源可利用量与承载能力估算[J].水科学进展,2004,15(6)：801-807.
[45]肖燕,刘凌.流域复合系统协调度的评价方法研究[J]水电能源科学.2009.6,27(3).
[46]郑慧娟.石羊河流域水资源—经济社会协调发展的SD模型与前景预测[D].甘肃农业大学.2005.6.
[47]肖燕,刘凌.流域复合系统协调度的评价方法研究[J].水电能源科学,2009,27(3)：15-17.
[48]索晓波,门宝辉.变异系数权重TOPSIS法在水资源综合评价中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2007(10),5(5)：45-47.
[49]宋松柏,蔡焕杰.区域水资源-社会经济-环境协调模型研究[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2004(10),35：501-503.
[50]刘耀彬,李仁东,张守忠.城市化与生态环境协调标准及其评价模型研究[J].中国软科学2005(5)：140-148.
[51]樊宝东.地下水水质加权绝对海明距离评价法[J].水资源保护,2000(3),1(59)：34-40.
[52]吕佳.区域可持续发展评价研究——以大连市为例[D],大连：大连理工大学,2006.
[53]郦建强,杨晓华,陆桂华,YU Shawlei.流域水资源承载能力综合评价的改进隶属度模糊物元模型[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(1)：78-83.
[54]关伟.区域水资源与经济社会耦合系统可持续发展的量化分析[J]地理研究；2007,26(4).
[55]曾珍香.可持续发展的系统分析与评价[M].北京：科学出版社,2000.
[56]康淑媛,张勃,吕永清,刘艳艳.基于隶属函数法的包头市水资源承载力评价[J].人民黄河,2009,31(1)59-60.
[57]李铭.水资源规划中的灰色系统理论方法[J].水利学报,1993,(3)：42-47.
[58]畅建霞,黄强,王义民,薛小杰.基于耗散结构理论和灰色关联熵的水资源系统演化方向判别模型研究[J].水利学报,2002,(11)：105-112.
[59]郑冬冬,北京市人口—水资源系统协调性分析[D].北京：首都经济贸易大学,2011.3
[60]陈丽燕.集对分析和粗糙集理论在水文水资源中的应用研究[D].哈尔滨：东北农业大学论文,2009
[61]丁爱中,陈德胜,潘成忠,许新宜.基于粗糙集和集对分析的中国水资源承载力现状评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(3)：71-75.
[62]张欣,陈华伟,仕玉治,刘海娇,范明元.基于集对分析的黄河三角洲东营市水资源承载力评价[J].水资源保护,2012,28(1)：17-21.
[63]李瑜,庄会波,宋秀英,孟祥彬.山东水资源与环境社会经济协调发展综合评价[J].水文,2003,23(2)：37-41.
[64]中碧峰.北京市宏观经济水资源系统动力学模型[J].北京水利.1995(2)：14-16.
[65]蒋晓辉,黄强.关中水资源与社会经济、环境协调发展模式研究[J].中国农村水利水电；2001(1)：21-24.
[66]郑慧娟.石羊河流域水资源-经济社会协调发展的SD模型与前景预测[D].兰州：甘肃农业大学.2005.
[67]王银平.天津市水资源系统动力学模型的研究[D].天津天津大学.2007.
[68]联合国开发计划署技术援助项目“华北水资源管理(UNDP CPR/88/068) ".
[69]许新宜,王浩,甘泓等.华北地区宏观经济水资源规划理论与方法[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,1997
[70]王浩,陈敏健,秦大庸等.西北地区水资源合理配置和承载能力研究[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社.2003.
[71]陈守煜,王国利,朱文彬,聂相田.大连市水资源、环境与经济协调可持续发展研究[J].水科学进展,2001,12(4)：504-508.
[72]徐丽娜,方国华.江苏省水资源宏观经济模型研究[J].江苏水利.2004(3)：35-38.
[73]彭少明,黄强,张新海,杨立斌.黄河流域水资源可持续利用多目标规划模型研究[J].河海大学学报,2007,35(2)153-158.
[74]赵建世.基于复杂适应理论的水资源优化配置整体模型研究[D].北京：清华大学.2003.4
[75]Liu J G, Dietz T, Carpenter S R, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell AN, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J, Ostrom E, Ouyang Z, Provencher W, Redman C L, Schneider S H, Taylor W W. (2007a), Complexityof coupled human and natural systems. Science,317,5844:1513-1516.
[76]Ostrom, Elinor, A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems[J]. Science,2009,325:419-422.
[77]赵永,王劲峰等.水资源问题的可计算一般均衡模型研究综述[J].水科学进展,2008,19(5)：756-762.
[78]汪党献,王浩,倪红珍,龙爱华.水资源与环境经济协调发展模型及其应用研究[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社.2011.
[79]余晓燕.一般均衡理论的发展脉络研究[J].现代商贸工业,2009(7)：22-23.
[80]Dixon,P.B., B.R. Parmenter,A.A. Powell and P.J. Wilcoxen. Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics. North-Holland, Amsterdam,1992.
[81]赵永,王劲峰.经济分析CGE模型与应用[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2008.6
[82]王勇,肖洪浪,等.CGE模型在水资源利用研究中的应用方法探讨[J].人民黄河,Vol.29,No.12,2007.
[83]沈大军,梁瑞驹,王浩,等.水价理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,1999.
[84]贾玲.基于一般均衡模型的水资源环境经济核算问题研究[D].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2012.6.
[85]马明.基于CGE模型的水资源短缺对国民经济的影响研究[D].北京：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2001.
[86]刘金华,倪红珍,汪党献,黄晓丽.基于CGE模型的天津市水资源经济效果分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2012,10(3)：192-198.
[87]王志璋.水资源优化配置模型技术及应用研究[M].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2007.6
[88]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[A].科学决策与系统工程——中国系统工程学会第六次年会论文集[C].1990.
[89]Heinz I, Pulido-Velazquez M,Lund J.R. Hydro-economic Modeling in River Basin Management Implications and Applications for the European Water Framework Directive[J].Water Resources Management,2007,21(7):1103-1125.
[90]付意成.基于水资源优化配置的浑太河污染物总量控制研究[D].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2010.6
[91]Mark Horridge, John Madden, Glyn Wittwer. Using a highly disaggregated multi-regional single-country modelto analyse the impacts of the 2002-03 drought on Australia [DB/OL] http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/cops/,2003
[92]Glyn Wittwer. An outline of TERM and modifications to include water usage in the Murray-Darling Basin [DB/OL]. http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/cops/,2003
[93]Rehdanz, K, M Berrittella, R Roson, and R.S.J. Tol. (2005), Water Scarcity and World Trade:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, paper presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis,2005 Lubeck, Germany
[94]胡瑞,左其亭.淮河流域水资源现状分析及承载能力研究意义[J].水资源与水工程学报.2008(05)：65-68.
[95]国家统计局国民经济核算司.中国地区投入产出表(2007)[M].中国统计出版社,2011.
[96]张芳.基于加工贸易非竞争型投入产出表的编制方法[J].统计与决策,2011(18)：23-27.
[97]齐舒畅,王飞,张亚雄.我国非竞争型投入产出表编制及其应用[J].统计研究.2008,25(5)：79-83.
[98]贺悭.中国投资、消费比例与经济发展政策[J].中国投资、消费比例与经济发展政,2006(5)：3-10.
[99]徐卓顺.可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型：建模原理、参数估计方法与应用研究[D].吉林：吉林大学.2009.6
[100]赵博,倪红珍.基于CGE模型的北京水价改革影响研究[C].变化环境下的水资源响应与可持续利用——中国水利学会水资源专业委员会2009学术年会论文集.辽宁·大连,2009：383-388.
[101]张颖.基于SD模型的京津冀地区物流与经济协调发展分析[D].北京：北京交通大学.2009
[102]程国栋.虚拟水：中国水资源安全战略的新思路[J].中国科学院院刊,2003(4)：260-265.
[103]刘哲,李秉龙.虚拟水贸易理论及其政策化研究进展[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(5)：134-138.
[104]李原园,刘戈力,高弋绢.水市场与水权交易[J].水利规划与设计,2004(2)：9-12.
[105]单以红.水权市场建设与运作研究[D].南京：河海大学,2007.
[106]田前进.交易成本对水权市场的影响分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(4)：75-77.
[107]何静,陈锡康.中国9大流域动态水资源影子价格计算研究[J].水利经济,2005,23(1)：14-19
[108]ROBERT R H, EASTER KW. Water allocation and water markets:an analysis of gains from trade in Chile[C]//World Bank Technical Paper.Washington D. C.:World Bank,1995:315.
[109]郑航.初始水权分配及其调度实现—以干旱区石羊河流域为例[D].北京：清华大学,2009.
[2]陈家琦,王浩,杨小柳.水资源学[M].北京：科学出版社,2002.
[3]王好芳.区域水资源可持续开发与社会经济协调发展研究[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[4]Noel, J. E., and R. E. Howitt. Conjunctive multibasin management:An optimal control approach. Water Resources Re-search 1982,18(4):753-763
[5]常炳炎,薛松贵,张会言等.黄河流域水资源合理分配和优化调度[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,1998
[6]World Bank.World development report 1992:Development and the environment. Oxford University Press, oxford UK,1992.
[7]William W-G.Yeh. Optimization of real-time hydrothermal system operation[J].Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management,1992,118(6):636-653.
[8]Dragan A S,Godfreg A W. Genetic algorithms for least cost design of water distribution networks[J]. Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management,1997,123(2):67-77.
[9]Lefkoff,L.J.and S.M.Gorelick. Simulating physical processes and economic behavior in saline, irrigated agriculture Model development. Water Resources Research 1990a,26(7):1359-1369.
[10]Lefkoff, L. J., and S. M. Gorelick. Benefits of an irrigation water rental market in a saline stream-aquifer system. Water Resources Research 1990b,26(7):1371-1381.
[11]Harding, B. J., T. B. Sangoyomi, and E. A. Payton. Impacts of a severe drought on Colorado river water resources. Water Resources Bulletin 1995,31(5):815-824.
[12]Booker, J. F. Hydrologic and economic impacts of drought under alternative policy responses. Water Resources Bulletin 1995,31(5):889-907.
[13]Booker, J. F., and R. A. Young. Modeling intrastate and interstate markets for Colorado river water resources. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 1994,26(1):66-87.
[14]Lee, D. J., and R. E. Howitt. Modeling regional agricultural production and salinity control alternatives for water quality policy analysis. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 1996,78(1):41-53.
[15]Faisal, I. M., R. A. Young, and J. W. Warner. Integrated economic-hydrologic modeling for groundwater basin management. Water Resources Development 1997,13(1):21-34
[16]Rao Vemuri.V, Cedeno.Walter. A new genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization in water resource management[A].Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Evolutionary Computation Nov 29-Dec 1 [C],Sponsored by:IEEE 1995:495-500.
[17]Wang.M,Zheng.C. Ground water management optimization using genetic algorithm sand simulated annealing:Formulation and comparison,Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998(3):519-530.
[18]Mashed.Jahangir, Kaluarachchi.Jonah.J. Enhancements to genetic allsorts for optimal groundwater management.Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2000 ASCE:67-73.
[19]Minsker.B.S,Padera.B,Smalley.l.B. Efficient Methods for including Uncertainty and Multiple Objectives in Water Resources Management Models Using Genetic Algorithms.13th International Conference on Computational Methods in Water Resources,Calgary,Alberta(Canada),2000:25-29.
[20]Ximing Cai, A Framework for Sustainability Analysis in Water Resources Management and Application to the Syr Darya Basin. Water Resources Research,2002.VOL.38,NO.0,10.1029/2001 WR000214.
[21]Kaveh Madani-Miguel A.Marino. System dynamics analysis for managing Iran's Zayandeh-Rud river basin. Water Resour Manage,2009,23:2163-2187.
[22]Predrag Prodanovic-Slobodan P. Simonovic. An operational model for support of integrated watershed management. Water Resour Manage (2010)24:1161-1194.
[23]Evan G.R. Davies, Slobodan P. Simonovic. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system. Advances in Water Resources,2011.684-700.
[24]Noelwah R. Netusil, Thomas R. Harris, Chang K. Seung, Jeffrey E. Englin. Impacts of water real location:A combined computable general equilibrium and recreation demand model approach.The Annals of Regional Science,2000,34(4):473-487.
[25]Jerson Kecman,Rafael Kelman.Water allocation for production in a semi-arid region.Water Resources Development,2002,18(3):391-407.
[26]Diao Xinshen, Roe Terry. Can a water market avert the "double-whammy" of trade reform and lead to a "win-win" outcome? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,45:708-723.
[27]Carlos M. Go'mez, Dolores Tirado, Javier Rey-Maquieira. Water exchanges versus water works: Insights from a computable general equilibrium model for the Balearic Islands. Water Resources Research, 2004,40:1-11.
[28]Takayuki HATANO,Takaaki OKUDA. Water resource allocation in the Yellow River Basin,China applying a CGE model [DB/OL]. http://www.iioa.org/pdf/Intermediate-2006/Full%20paper Hatano.pdf, 2013,4.
[29]Shan Feng a, Ling Xia Li, Zhi Gang Duan,Jin Long Zhang. Assessing the impacts of South-to-North Water Transfer Project with decision support systems. Decision Support Systems 42 (2007) 1989-2003.
[30]Rashid Hassan, James Thurlow. Macro-micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes. Agricultural Economics,2011,42(2):235-247.
[31]Llop Maria, Ponce-Alifonso Xavier. A never-ending debate:demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia. WATER POLICY,2012,14(4):694-708.
[32]朱文彬.水资源开发利用与区域经济协调管理模型系统研究[J].水利学报,1995,(11)：31-39.
[33]何希吾,陆亚洲.区域社会经济发展与水资源[J].科学对社会的影响.1996(2)：12-16.
[34]李令跃,甘泓.试论水资源合理配置和承载能力概念与可持续发展之间的关系[J].水科学进展,2000,10；11(3)：307-113.
[35]汀党献.水资源需求分析理论与方法研究[D].中国水利水电科学研究院.2002,12.
[36]贾绍凤,张军岩,张士锋.区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系[J].地理科学进展,区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系,2002.11,21(6)：538-545.
[37]王浩,陈敏建,秦大庸等.西北地区水资源合理配置和承载能力研究[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,2003,1.
[38]王浩,王建华,秦大庸.流域水资源合理配置的研究进展与发展方向[J].水科学进展,2004(1),15(1)：123-128.
[39]倪红珍.基于绿色核算的水资源价值与价格研究[D].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2004.10.
[40]钟淋涓,方国华,国延恒.水资源、社会经济与生态环境相互作用关系研究[J].水利经济.2007.5；25(3)
[41]王浩,秦大庸,汪党献等著.水利与国民经济协调发展研究[M].中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[42]李原园,李云玲,李爱花.全国水资源综合规划编制总体思路与技术路线[J].规划解读,2011,23：36-41.
[43]梅双纬.多目标算法分析研究水资源承载力[D].南京：河海大学,2007.3.
[44]贾绍凤,周长青,燕华云等.西北地区水资源可利用量与承载能力估算[J].水科学进展,2004,15(6)：801-807.
[45]肖燕,刘凌.流域复合系统协调度的评价方法研究[J]水电能源科学.2009.6,27(3).
[46]郑慧娟.石羊河流域水资源—经济社会协调发展的SD模型与前景预测[D].甘肃农业大学.2005.6.
[47]肖燕,刘凌.流域复合系统协调度的评价方法研究[J].水电能源科学,2009,27(3)：15-17.
[48]索晓波,门宝辉.变异系数权重TOPSIS法在水资源综合评价中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2007(10),5(5)：45-47.
[49]宋松柏,蔡焕杰.区域水资源-社会经济-环境协调模型研究[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2004(10),35：501-503.
[50]刘耀彬,李仁东,张守忠.城市化与生态环境协调标准及其评价模型研究[J].中国软科学2005(5)：140-148.
[51]樊宝东.地下水水质加权绝对海明距离评价法[J].水资源保护,2000(3),1(59)：34-40.
[52]吕佳.区域可持续发展评价研究——以大连市为例[D],大连：大连理工大学,2006.
[53]郦建强,杨晓华,陆桂华,YU Shawlei.流域水资源承载能力综合评价的改进隶属度模糊物元模型[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(1)：78-83.
[54]关伟.区域水资源与经济社会耦合系统可持续发展的量化分析[J]地理研究；2007,26(4).
[55]曾珍香.可持续发展的系统分析与评价[M].北京：科学出版社,2000.
[56]康淑媛,张勃,吕永清,刘艳艳.基于隶属函数法的包头市水资源承载力评价[J].人民黄河,2009,31(1)59-60.
[57]李铭.水资源规划中的灰色系统理论方法[J].水利学报,1993,(3)：42-47.
[58]畅建霞,黄强,王义民,薛小杰.基于耗散结构理论和灰色关联熵的水资源系统演化方向判别模型研究[J].水利学报,2002,(11)：105-112.
[59]郑冬冬,北京市人口—水资源系统协调性分析[D].北京：首都经济贸易大学,2011.3
[60]陈丽燕.集对分析和粗糙集理论在水文水资源中的应用研究[D].哈尔滨：东北农业大学论文,2009
[61]丁爱中,陈德胜,潘成忠,许新宜.基于粗糙集和集对分析的中国水资源承载力现状评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(3)：71-75.
[62]张欣,陈华伟,仕玉治,刘海娇,范明元.基于集对分析的黄河三角洲东营市水资源承载力评价[J].水资源保护,2012,28(1)：17-21.
[63]李瑜,庄会波,宋秀英,孟祥彬.山东水资源与环境社会经济协调发展综合评价[J].水文,2003,23(2)：37-41.
[64]中碧峰.北京市宏观经济水资源系统动力学模型[J].北京水利.1995(2)：14-16.
[65]蒋晓辉,黄强.关中水资源与社会经济、环境协调发展模式研究[J].中国农村水利水电；2001(1)：21-24.
[66]郑慧娟.石羊河流域水资源-经济社会协调发展的SD模型与前景预测[D].兰州：甘肃农业大学.2005.
[67]王银平.天津市水资源系统动力学模型的研究[D].天津天津大学.2007.
[68]联合国开发计划署技术援助项目“华北水资源管理(UNDP CPR/88/068) ".
[69]许新宜,王浩,甘泓等.华北地区宏观经济水资源规划理论与方法[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,1997
[70]王浩,陈敏健,秦大庸等.西北地区水资源合理配置和承载能力研究[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社.2003.
[71]陈守煜,王国利,朱文彬,聂相田.大连市水资源、环境与经济协调可持续发展研究[J].水科学进展,2001,12(4)：504-508.
[72]徐丽娜,方国华.江苏省水资源宏观经济模型研究[J].江苏水利.2004(3)：35-38.
[73]彭少明,黄强,张新海,杨立斌.黄河流域水资源可持续利用多目标规划模型研究[J].河海大学学报,2007,35(2)153-158.
[74]赵建世.基于复杂适应理论的水资源优化配置整体模型研究[D].北京：清华大学.2003.4
[75]Liu J G, Dietz T, Carpenter S R, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell AN, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J, Ostrom E, Ouyang Z, Provencher W, Redman C L, Schneider S H, Taylor W W. (2007a), Complexityof coupled human and natural systems. Science,317,5844:1513-1516.
[76]Ostrom, Elinor, A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems[J]. Science,2009,325:419-422.
[77]赵永,王劲峰等.水资源问题的可计算一般均衡模型研究综述[J].水科学进展,2008,19(5)：756-762.
[78]汪党献,王浩,倪红珍,龙爱华.水资源与环境经济协调发展模型及其应用研究[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社.2011.
[79]余晓燕.一般均衡理论的发展脉络研究[J].现代商贸工业,2009(7)：22-23.
[80]Dixon,P.B., B.R. Parmenter,A.A. Powell and P.J. Wilcoxen. Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics. North-Holland, Amsterdam,1992.
[81]赵永,王劲峰.经济分析CGE模型与应用[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2008.6
[82]王勇,肖洪浪,等.CGE模型在水资源利用研究中的应用方法探讨[J].人民黄河,Vol.29,No.12,2007.
[83]沈大军,梁瑞驹,王浩,等.水价理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,1999.
[84]贾玲.基于一般均衡模型的水资源环境经济核算问题研究[D].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2012.6.
[85]马明.基于CGE模型的水资源短缺对国民经济的影响研究[D].北京：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2001.
[86]刘金华,倪红珍,汪党献,黄晓丽.基于CGE模型的天津市水资源经济效果分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2012,10(3)：192-198.
[87]王志璋.水资源优化配置模型技术及应用研究[M].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2007.6
[88]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[A].科学决策与系统工程——中国系统工程学会第六次年会论文集[C].1990.
[89]Heinz I, Pulido-Velazquez M,Lund J.R. Hydro-economic Modeling in River Basin Management Implications and Applications for the European Water Framework Directive[J].Water Resources Management,2007,21(7):1103-1125.
[90]付意成.基于水资源优化配置的浑太河污染物总量控制研究[D].北京：中国水利水电科学研究院.2010.6
[91]Mark Horridge, John Madden, Glyn Wittwer. Using a highly disaggregated multi-regional single-country modelto analyse the impacts of the 2002-03 drought on Australia [DB/OL] http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/cops/,2003
[92]Glyn Wittwer. An outline of TERM and modifications to include water usage in the Murray-Darling Basin [DB/OL]. http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/cops/,2003
[93]Rehdanz, K, M Berrittella, R Roson, and R.S.J. Tol. (2005), Water Scarcity and World Trade:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, paper presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis,2005 Lubeck, Germany
[94]胡瑞,左其亭.淮河流域水资源现状分析及承载能力研究意义[J].水资源与水工程学报.2008(05)：65-68.
[95]国家统计局国民经济核算司.中国地区投入产出表(2007)[M].中国统计出版社,2011.
[96]张芳.基于加工贸易非竞争型投入产出表的编制方法[J].统计与决策,2011(18)：23-27.
[97]齐舒畅,王飞,张亚雄.我国非竞争型投入产出表编制及其应用[J].统计研究.2008,25(5)：79-83.
[98]贺悭.中国投资、消费比例与经济发展政策[J].中国投资、消费比例与经济发展政,2006(5)：3-10.
[99]徐卓顺.可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型：建模原理、参数估计方法与应用研究[D].吉林：吉林大学.2009.6
[100]赵博,倪红珍.基于CGE模型的北京水价改革影响研究[C].变化环境下的水资源响应与可持续利用——中国水利学会水资源专业委员会2009学术年会论文集.辽宁·大连,2009：383-388.
[101]张颖.基于SD模型的京津冀地区物流与经济协调发展分析[D].北京：北京交通大学.2009
[102]程国栋.虚拟水：中国水资源安全战略的新思路[J].中国科学院院刊,2003(4)：260-265.
[103]刘哲,李秉龙.虚拟水贸易理论及其政策化研究进展[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(5)：134-138.
[104]李原园,刘戈力,高弋绢.水市场与水权交易[J].水利规划与设计,2004(2)：9-12.
[105]单以红.水权市场建设与运作研究[D].南京：河海大学,2007.
[106]田前进.交易成本对水权市场的影响分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(4)：75-77.
[107]何静,陈锡康.中国9大流域动态水资源影子价格计算研究[J].水利经济,2005,23(1)：14-19
[108]ROBERT R H, EASTER KW. Water allocation and water markets:an analysis of gains from trade in Chile[C]//World Bank Technical Paper.Washington D. C.:World Bank,1995:315.
[109]郑航.初始水权分配及其调度实现—以干旱区石羊河流域为例[D].北京：清华大学,2009.