天然异龄林资产评估技术改进研究
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摘要
随着森林资源资产化经营的开展和林权制度改革的深入，天然异龄林资产评估将日益活跃。在分析总结天然异龄林生长经营研究和资产评估概况的基础上，利用可拓学和云模型等的理论与方法，对天然异龄林资产核查的起测直径、收益现值法择伐周期的确定、市场比较法比较因素的合理修正及可比案例选择等方面进行了研究，提出了天然异龄林资产评估的改进技术。主要结论如下：
（1）天然异龄林资产评估作为森林资源资产评估的组成部分，其评估中的信息不对称表现与森林资源资产评估的信息不对称拥有共性。天然异龄林林分生长结构复杂多样，其管理经营上有严格的政策保护，木材经济效益与人工用材林相比较差，且相关评估参数指标和经营数表难以获得，加剧了天然异龄林评估的信息不对称，是天然异龄林评估市场“柠檬化”的主要原因。
（2）研究和确定天然异龄林评估资产核查的合理起测直径，指出只要能保证平均每厘米起测直径升幅的蓄积量平均误差足够小，即可适当提高起测直径；建议天然异龄林资产核查时，林分平均胸径水平在14cm以下，起测直径可提高至7cm阶；林分平均胸径在14cm及以上时，起测直径可提高至9cm，若林分平均胸径水平较大，起测直径甚至可考虑提高至10cm。
（3）对蓄积量法确定择伐周期的公式进行了推导改进，公式中待定参数仅有林分蓄积量水平和择伐强度两个参数。评估中这两个参数很容易根据待估林分小班情况取值，克服了以往评估中主观确定择伐周期的不足，提升了评估测算的客观性和科学度；并根据改进后的公式编制了择伐周期二元速查表。此外，提出利用可拓聚类预测法来计算动态生长率、确定择伐周期，经检验该法行之有效，为收益现值法评估择伐周期的确定又提供了一技术途径。
（4）对天然异龄林市场比较法的比较因素修正和可比案例选择两个关键环节进行了改进和完善。实现了树种组成、径级结构、地利等级等难以量化因素的定量修正调整，分别提出了具体、有效的修正技术。引入可拓优度评价法、改进海明距离法和集对多元联系数法进行可比案例的选择评价，有利于比较案例选择的定量化和规范化，提升评估实务的科学性和客观性。
With the in-depth launching of the asset management for forest resources and the system reformfor forest property right, asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forest resource assets will beincreasingly active. On the basis of the analysis of previous research on growth and management as wellas the summation of asset evaluation overview for natural uneven-aged forests, some asset evaluationtechniques of natural uneven-aged forest assets were studied and improved by using Extension Theoryand Cloud Theory, including the reasonable minimum measurement diameter(below to MMD shows) ofasset verification, the optimization calculation of selective cutting cycle in the Income Present ValueMethod, and the reasonable correction of comparative factors and the selection of comparable cases inthe Market Comparison Approach. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1)As a part of forest resources asset evaluation, asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forestassets has something in common with it on the performance of information asymmetry. The growthstructure of natural uneven-aged forest stands is complex and diverse. Some strict policies ofmanagement and operation are carried out to protect natural uneven-aged forest stands. Meanwhile, thewood economic benefits of natural uneven-aged forest stands are significantly inferior to the timberplantations. Then several relevant indicators, parameters and management tables are difficult to obtain.Information asymmetry of asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forest assets is exacerbated by theabove factors, which are main reasons to become Lemon Market.
(2)The reasonable MMD in asset verification of asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forestassets were studied and identified. As long as the average volume error per centimeter increase of MMDis small enough, appropriate increase of MMD is feasible. Under the situation that the average diameterat breast height(below to DBH shows) of natural uneven-aged forest stands is less than14cm, MMD beavailable to raise to7cm class in asset verification. While the average DBH is above14cm, MMDcould be raised to9cm, and even raised to10cm if the average DBH is much higher.
(3)The volume method formula for determining selective cutting cycle was improved. There wereonly two unknown parameters in the upgrade formula, stand volume and selective cutting intensityincluded. They are easy to obtain according to the stand to be evaluated. By using the upgradetechnology, not merely overcoming the shortcomings of subjective determining method of selectivecutting cycle previously, but also enhancing the objectivity and scientific degrees. Finally atwo-element-scale of selective cutting cycle was established according to the improved formula in thischapter. In addition, extensive clustering forecast method was put forward to calculate the dynamicgrowth rate and determine the selective cutting cycle. It’s an another effective way to determine theselective cutting cycle in the Income Present Value Method through testing.
(4)The two key areas of Market Comparison Approach, comparison factors correction andcomparable cases selection, were improved and perfected. Tree species composition, diameter structureand geographical advantages grade, which were difficult to quantify in the traditional evaluationpractice, were succeeded to quantitatively correct and adjust in this paper. Correction technologies ofthem were put forward respectively. This study also firstly introduced Extension Superiority EvaluationMethod, Improved Hamming Distance Method and Set-pair Analysis Method to select the comparablecases, which were conducive to quantum and standardization. With the technologies above-mentionedfor Market Comparison Approach, the scientific degrees and objectivity of assessment practices will beenhanced.
（1）天然异龄林资产评估作为森林资源资产评估的组成部分，其评估中的信息不对称表现与森林资源资产评估的信息不对称拥有共性。天然异龄林林分生长结构复杂多样，其管理经营上有严格的政策保护，木材经济效益与人工用材林相比较差，且相关评估参数指标和经营数表难以获得，加剧了天然异龄林评估的信息不对称，是天然异龄林评估市场“柠檬化”的主要原因。
（2）研究和确定天然异龄林评估资产核查的合理起测直径，指出只要能保证平均每厘米起测直径升幅的蓄积量平均误差足够小，即可适当提高起测直径；建议天然异龄林资产核查时，林分平均胸径水平在14cm以下，起测直径可提高至7cm阶；林分平均胸径在14cm及以上时，起测直径可提高至9cm，若林分平均胸径水平较大，起测直径甚至可考虑提高至10cm。
（3）对蓄积量法确定择伐周期的公式进行了推导改进，公式中待定参数仅有林分蓄积量水平和择伐强度两个参数。评估中这两个参数很容易根据待估林分小班情况取值，克服了以往评估中主观确定择伐周期的不足，提升了评估测算的客观性和科学度；并根据改进后的公式编制了择伐周期二元速查表。此外，提出利用可拓聚类预测法来计算动态生长率、确定择伐周期，经检验该法行之有效，为收益现值法评估择伐周期的确定又提供了一技术途径。
（4）对天然异龄林市场比较法的比较因素修正和可比案例选择两个关键环节进行了改进和完善。实现了树种组成、径级结构、地利等级等难以量化因素的定量修正调整，分别提出了具体、有效的修正技术。引入可拓优度评价法、改进海明距离法和集对多元联系数法进行可比案例的选择评价，有利于比较案例选择的定量化和规范化，提升评估实务的科学性和客观性。
With the in-depth launching of the asset management for forest resources and the system reformfor forest property right, asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forest resource assets will beincreasingly active. On the basis of the analysis of previous research on growth and management as wellas the summation of asset evaluation overview for natural uneven-aged forests, some asset evaluationtechniques of natural uneven-aged forest assets were studied and improved by using Extension Theoryand Cloud Theory, including the reasonable minimum measurement diameter(below to MMD shows) ofasset verification, the optimization calculation of selective cutting cycle in the Income Present ValueMethod, and the reasonable correction of comparative factors and the selection of comparable cases inthe Market Comparison Approach. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1)As a part of forest resources asset evaluation, asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forestassets has something in common with it on the performance of information asymmetry. The growthstructure of natural uneven-aged forest stands is complex and diverse. Some strict policies ofmanagement and operation are carried out to protect natural uneven-aged forest stands. Meanwhile, thewood economic benefits of natural uneven-aged forest stands are significantly inferior to the timberplantations. Then several relevant indicators, parameters and management tables are difficult to obtain.Information asymmetry of asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forest assets is exacerbated by theabove factors, which are main reasons to become Lemon Market.
(2)The reasonable MMD in asset verification of asset evaluation of natural uneven-aged forestassets were studied and identified. As long as the average volume error per centimeter increase of MMDis small enough, appropriate increase of MMD is feasible. Under the situation that the average diameterat breast height(below to DBH shows) of natural uneven-aged forest stands is less than14cm, MMD beavailable to raise to7cm class in asset verification. While the average DBH is above14cm, MMDcould be raised to9cm, and even raised to10cm if the average DBH is much higher.
(3)The volume method formula for determining selective cutting cycle was improved. There wereonly two unknown parameters in the upgrade formula, stand volume and selective cutting intensityincluded. They are easy to obtain according to the stand to be evaluated. By using the upgradetechnology, not merely overcoming the shortcomings of subjective determining method of selectivecutting cycle previously, but also enhancing the objectivity and scientific degrees. Finally atwo-element-scale of selective cutting cycle was established according to the improved formula in thischapter. In addition, extensive clustering forecast method was put forward to calculate the dynamicgrowth rate and determine the selective cutting cycle. It’s an another effective way to determine theselective cutting cycle in the Income Present Value Method through testing.
(4)The two key areas of Market Comparison Approach, comparison factors correction andcomparable cases selection, were improved and perfected. Tree species composition, diameter structureand geographical advantages grade, which were difficult to quantify in the traditional evaluationpractice, were succeeded to quantitatively correct and adjust in this paper. Correction technologies ofthem were put forward respectively. This study also firstly introduced Extension Superiority EvaluationMethod, Improved Hamming Distance Method and Set-pair Analysis Method to select the comparablecases, which were conducive to quantum and standardization. With the technologies above-mentionedfor Market Comparison Approach, the scientific degrees and objectivity of assessment practices will beenhanced.
引文
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