我国临空经济的发展机理及其经济影响研究
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摘要
临空经济作为交通运输方式促进区域经济发展所形成的新的经济增长模式,因其对周边地区经济的巨大带动作用而正在受到越来越多的关注。各地政府纷纷把临空经济作为新的经济增长点而积极加以引导和培育,并大力建设临空经济区。然而,临空经济的形成和有序发展需要一定的宏观经济条件和微观基础,在不同的区域资源禀赋条件下,其发展过程、动力机制和发展模式也各不相同。盲目地追求规模和短期效益不仅会造成土地等资源的浪费还会影响到区域经济的健康发展。
本文在总结国内外临空经济发展的理论研究及实践经验的基础上,分析了临空经济的发展阶段和主要发展模式。针对我国的具体情况研究了我国临空经济发展的背景条件及其动力机制,并对我国临空经济的发展现状进行了实证分析。本文还利用投入产出乘数定量分析了首都机场临空经济对北京市经济在各个层面上的影响,从而为政府相关部门发展临空经济提供指导和建议。
本文首先结合国内外的观点和我国的实际情况对临空经济进行界定,并根据临空产业集群的发展水平及临空经济对区域经济的影响方式和影响深度将临空经济的发展过程划分为运输经济阶段、产业集聚阶段和城市经济阶段。而根据临空经济主导产业的类型以及各产业的发展水平,将其发展模式总结为枢纽经济模式、临空产业经济模式和环境经济模式。
本文还从不同层面分析我国临空经济发展所处的大环境,指出全球价值链转移模式的变化促进了航空运输网络扩张和中间品贸易量的增加,强化了航空运输业的辐射力,也使地方产业集群在嵌入全球价值链的过程中面临更加激烈的竞争。此外,我国区域开放重国际轻区际的特点以及航空运输业技术进步和航空政策开放等都推动了临空经济的形成。在分析临空经济动力机制时,本文首先利用计量经济学中的协整分析和格兰杰因果检验模型动态考察了我国对外贸易增长、区域经济发展与航空运输业发展之间的关系,结果表明对外贸易增长以及腹地区域经济发展等是我国临空经济的形成的重要外部条件。在此基础上进一步建立数学模型分析市场竞争模式变化带来的产品时间价值提升对企业运输方式选择偏好的影响,结果显示,在微观层面,迅者生存的竞争模式推动了航空运输业的发展和临空经济的形成。
本文进一步利用流量经济理论、产业集群理论以及城市经济理论分析我国临空经济发展的内部动力机制,并指出初级要素大规模集散带来的流量经济效应、产业集群效应以及城市经济的形成是临空经济形成的内在作用机制。本文还给出了要素量能的定义,并通过构建量能的数学函数以衡量要素层次、流速以及规模等对其它要素的吸引力,利用系统动力学模型进行仿真,以说明临空经济区内要素结构的变化过程。
为分析我国临空经济的发展现状,本文引入贸易引力模型研究影响我国临空经济区流量经济发展的主要因素及其影响程度。结果显示航空客流量和地区经济规模等对流量经济有较强的带动作用,而航空货运对流量经济的影响则不显著。此外,分别对首都机场和西安咸阳机场所在的临空经济区利用区位熵指数和权重未知的多目标决策方法评估临空产业集聚效应。结果表明,由于受到枢纽机场的影响,顺义区已经形成了多个具有航空特色的产业集群,且通信设备、计算机以及电子设备制造业以及交通设备制造业等高新技术产业和现代制造业已成为临空经济区内的优势产业集群,这表明首都机场临空经济已进入产业集聚经济阶段,临空产业集群对地区经济结构产生重要影响。而对西安咸阳机场临空产业集群的评估则显示出航空运输指向性弱的传统产业仍在临空经济区内居于主导地位,临空产业虽然已经形成集聚,但其在规模和效益等方面还不具有优势,说明西安机场临空经济仍处于从运输经济向产业集聚经济过渡的阶段。由此可以看出,大型国际枢纽机场与区域中心机场临空经济的发展水平之间还有很大的差距。
为衡量临空经济对区域经济的影响,本文首先在对国外相关研究方法进行扩展的基础上,利用投入产出乘数计算其直接影响、间接影响和引致影响,然后利用产业关联度分析临空经济对区域产业结构的影响,通过对区域产业结构效益指标的计算衡量临空产业集群对区域产业结构的优化程度。根据以上研究框架和方法,本文对首都机场临空经济对北京市经济的影响进行了定量分析。
分析表明临空经济对北京市经济增长和产业结构优化均产生了积极影响。文章最后从产业规划、区域经济与临空经济的耦合发展以及产业升级等方面给出了发展临空经济的政策建议。
As a new mode of economy development, airport economy is formed during the course of traffic facility promoting regional economy. More and more attention is being given to airport economy because of its great impact on the development of regional economy, different level of governments want to develop airport economy as new growth-pole. However, the formation of airport economy need proper conditions, the stage and mode of its development are different as the resource endowment changed. Pursuing large-scale and short-term benefit blindly will not only waste resources such as earth and capital but also tamper with the growth of regional economy.
Based on analyzing research reports and practical experiment of the development of airport economy at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the development stages and modes of airport economy. What’s more, it analyzes the background and dynamic mechanism of the development of airport economy in China, taking Beijing capital airport and Xi’an airport as examples. It also evaluates the impacts of airport economy on the growth of economy in Beijing. The study can be used as reference by local governments in making policies for developping airport economy.
On the basis of sumerizing the viewpoints of experts in China and at abroad, this paper defines airport economy from different angle of view. And according to the development level of industrial clusters related to aviation industry around airport and the impact of airport economy on regional economy, it divides the development of airport economy into stages of transportation economy, industrial economy, and urban economy. What’s more, it also concludes the growth mode of airport economy as hub economy, industrial economy and environment economy in view of the type of the major industries in airport economy zone.
This paper analyzes the background of the formation of airport economy and points out that the transfer mode of global value chain changing from integration to division and the large scale flow of semi-products it brings, regional openness and more liberal bilateral air service agreement provide the development of airport economy in China with macro-economic conditions.
In order to investigate the dynamic mechanism of the development of airport economy, firstly, cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to study the relationship between growth of foreign trade and regional economy and the development of air transportation industry. The result reveals that the development of foreign trade and regional economy are key external factors of the formation of airport economy. What’s more, the paper establishes a mathematical model to study the impact of the change of competition mode in market on the choice of enterprises when selecting transportation tool. And the model reveals that the competition mode of“survive of the fastest”promotes the development of air transportation industry and the formation of airport economy.
Further, this paper analyzes the internal dynamic mechanism of the development of airport economy with the theory of flow economy, industrial clusters and urban economy. This paper defines the concept of flow energy, and gives the function of flow energy to weigh the impact of the level, speed and scale of elements on its force of attracting other elements. It also simulates the evolvement process of flow energy of elements with different level by means of system dynamics model.
In order to investigate the status quo of airport economy in China, this paper makes regression analysis based on the gravity model to analysis the major factors that affect the development of the flow economy in airport economy zone and their coefficients. It finds that passenger throughput, the economic growth of both hinterland city and airport economy zone drives the growth of flow economy greatly, but the effect of goods throughput is weak. Besides, by means of LQ and multiattribute decision makings with weighs unknown, the paper identifies the industrial clusters and their performance at capital airport zone and Xi’an Xianyang airport. By comparing the industrial clusters in the two airport economy zone, the paper points out that the airport economy in capital airport has entered the industrial economy, while the airport economy in Xi’an airport zone is still in the transition stage from transportation economy to industrial economy. It can be seen that the development of airport economy around regional hub airport is far behind the one around large international hub airport, and the growth of airport economy in China is imbalance.
This paper also assesses the contribution of airport economy to regional economy by dividing it into direct impact, indirect impact and induced impact. And it calculates the multiplier of the indirect impact and induced impact of Beijing capital airport area economy on GDP and job creation in Beijing to assess the impact of capital airport economy. What’s more, SSA and relative productivity, etc. are used to weigh the impact of capital airport economy on the industrial structure of Beijing.
Political suggestions and further research directions are given in the end of the paper.
本文在总结国内外临空经济发展的理论研究及实践经验的基础上,分析了临空经济的发展阶段和主要发展模式。针对我国的具体情况研究了我国临空经济发展的背景条件及其动力机制,并对我国临空经济的发展现状进行了实证分析。本文还利用投入产出乘数定量分析了首都机场临空经济对北京市经济在各个层面上的影响,从而为政府相关部门发展临空经济提供指导和建议。
本文首先结合国内外的观点和我国的实际情况对临空经济进行界定,并根据临空产业集群的发展水平及临空经济对区域经济的影响方式和影响深度将临空经济的发展过程划分为运输经济阶段、产业集聚阶段和城市经济阶段。而根据临空经济主导产业的类型以及各产业的发展水平,将其发展模式总结为枢纽经济模式、临空产业经济模式和环境经济模式。
本文还从不同层面分析我国临空经济发展所处的大环境,指出全球价值链转移模式的变化促进了航空运输网络扩张和中间品贸易量的增加,强化了航空运输业的辐射力,也使地方产业集群在嵌入全球价值链的过程中面临更加激烈的竞争。此外,我国区域开放重国际轻区际的特点以及航空运输业技术进步和航空政策开放等都推动了临空经济的形成。在分析临空经济动力机制时,本文首先利用计量经济学中的协整分析和格兰杰因果检验模型动态考察了我国对外贸易增长、区域经济发展与航空运输业发展之间的关系,结果表明对外贸易增长以及腹地区域经济发展等是我国临空经济的形成的重要外部条件。在此基础上进一步建立数学模型分析市场竞争模式变化带来的产品时间价值提升对企业运输方式选择偏好的影响,结果显示,在微观层面,迅者生存的竞争模式推动了航空运输业的发展和临空经济的形成。
本文进一步利用流量经济理论、产业集群理论以及城市经济理论分析我国临空经济发展的内部动力机制,并指出初级要素大规模集散带来的流量经济效应、产业集群效应以及城市经济的形成是临空经济形成的内在作用机制。本文还给出了要素量能的定义,并通过构建量能的数学函数以衡量要素层次、流速以及规模等对其它要素的吸引力,利用系统动力学模型进行仿真,以说明临空经济区内要素结构的变化过程。
为分析我国临空经济的发展现状,本文引入贸易引力模型研究影响我国临空经济区流量经济发展的主要因素及其影响程度。结果显示航空客流量和地区经济规模等对流量经济有较强的带动作用,而航空货运对流量经济的影响则不显著。此外,分别对首都机场和西安咸阳机场所在的临空经济区利用区位熵指数和权重未知的多目标决策方法评估临空产业集聚效应。结果表明,由于受到枢纽机场的影响,顺义区已经形成了多个具有航空特色的产业集群,且通信设备、计算机以及电子设备制造业以及交通设备制造业等高新技术产业和现代制造业已成为临空经济区内的优势产业集群,这表明首都机场临空经济已进入产业集聚经济阶段,临空产业集群对地区经济结构产生重要影响。而对西安咸阳机场临空产业集群的评估则显示出航空运输指向性弱的传统产业仍在临空经济区内居于主导地位,临空产业虽然已经形成集聚,但其在规模和效益等方面还不具有优势,说明西安机场临空经济仍处于从运输经济向产业集聚经济过渡的阶段。由此可以看出,大型国际枢纽机场与区域中心机场临空经济的发展水平之间还有很大的差距。
为衡量临空经济对区域经济的影响,本文首先在对国外相关研究方法进行扩展的基础上,利用投入产出乘数计算其直接影响、间接影响和引致影响,然后利用产业关联度分析临空经济对区域产业结构的影响,通过对区域产业结构效益指标的计算衡量临空产业集群对区域产业结构的优化程度。根据以上研究框架和方法,本文对首都机场临空经济对北京市经济的影响进行了定量分析。
分析表明临空经济对北京市经济增长和产业结构优化均产生了积极影响。文章最后从产业规划、区域经济与临空经济的耦合发展以及产业升级等方面给出了发展临空经济的政策建议。
As a new mode of economy development, airport economy is formed during the course of traffic facility promoting regional economy. More and more attention is being given to airport economy because of its great impact on the development of regional economy, different level of governments want to develop airport economy as new growth-pole. However, the formation of airport economy need proper conditions, the stage and mode of its development are different as the resource endowment changed. Pursuing large-scale and short-term benefit blindly will not only waste resources such as earth and capital but also tamper with the growth of regional economy.
Based on analyzing research reports and practical experiment of the development of airport economy at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the development stages and modes of airport economy. What’s more, it analyzes the background and dynamic mechanism of the development of airport economy in China, taking Beijing capital airport and Xi’an airport as examples. It also evaluates the impacts of airport economy on the growth of economy in Beijing. The study can be used as reference by local governments in making policies for developping airport economy.
On the basis of sumerizing the viewpoints of experts in China and at abroad, this paper defines airport economy from different angle of view. And according to the development level of industrial clusters related to aviation industry around airport and the impact of airport economy on regional economy, it divides the development of airport economy into stages of transportation economy, industrial economy, and urban economy. What’s more, it also concludes the growth mode of airport economy as hub economy, industrial economy and environment economy in view of the type of the major industries in airport economy zone.
This paper analyzes the background of the formation of airport economy and points out that the transfer mode of global value chain changing from integration to division and the large scale flow of semi-products it brings, regional openness and more liberal bilateral air service agreement provide the development of airport economy in China with macro-economic conditions.
In order to investigate the dynamic mechanism of the development of airport economy, firstly, cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to study the relationship between growth of foreign trade and regional economy and the development of air transportation industry. The result reveals that the development of foreign trade and regional economy are key external factors of the formation of airport economy. What’s more, the paper establishes a mathematical model to study the impact of the change of competition mode in market on the choice of enterprises when selecting transportation tool. And the model reveals that the competition mode of“survive of the fastest”promotes the development of air transportation industry and the formation of airport economy.
Further, this paper analyzes the internal dynamic mechanism of the development of airport economy with the theory of flow economy, industrial clusters and urban economy. This paper defines the concept of flow energy, and gives the function of flow energy to weigh the impact of the level, speed and scale of elements on its force of attracting other elements. It also simulates the evolvement process of flow energy of elements with different level by means of system dynamics model.
In order to investigate the status quo of airport economy in China, this paper makes regression analysis based on the gravity model to analysis the major factors that affect the development of the flow economy in airport economy zone and their coefficients. It finds that passenger throughput, the economic growth of both hinterland city and airport economy zone drives the growth of flow economy greatly, but the effect of goods throughput is weak. Besides, by means of LQ and multiattribute decision makings with weighs unknown, the paper identifies the industrial clusters and their performance at capital airport zone and Xi’an Xianyang airport. By comparing the industrial clusters in the two airport economy zone, the paper points out that the airport economy in capital airport has entered the industrial economy, while the airport economy in Xi’an airport zone is still in the transition stage from transportation economy to industrial economy. It can be seen that the development of airport economy around regional hub airport is far behind the one around large international hub airport, and the growth of airport economy in China is imbalance.
This paper also assesses the contribution of airport economy to regional economy by dividing it into direct impact, indirect impact and induced impact. And it calculates the multiplier of the indirect impact and induced impact of Beijing capital airport area economy on GDP and job creation in Beijing to assess the impact of capital airport economy. What’s more, SSA and relative productivity, etc. are used to weigh the impact of capital airport economy on the industrial structure of Beijing.
Political suggestions and further research directions are given in the end of the paper.
引文
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