我国物流业与国民经济协调发展研究
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摘要
物流业的振兴可以提高国民经济运行的总体质量和效益,对于优化资源配置、改善投资环境、提高经济运行质量、提升国家综合实力都具有重要意义。
本文建立了不同产业结构下物流业增加值和物流业投资与国民经济总量的计量关系模型,并进行了实证研究。发现每万元国内生产总值产生的物流业增加值呈现增加趋势。总量分析结果表明,产业结构变化相对平稳时期,物流业的发展也相对平稳；产业结构变动剧烈,物流业的发展也会出现剧烈的波动。继而研究了物流产业增加值与国民经济结构的关系,发现万元国内生产总值产生的物流业增加值与第二、三次产业生产总值之和占国民经济总量的比重成高度正相关关系。而交通运输系统投资作为物流业投资的一部分,对国民经济的带动作用大于整体物流投资对国民经济的带动作用,同时也发现交通运输投资对于国民经济的带动作用在逐渐减小。
建立了产业结构不同发展阶段三次产业增加值与物流业增加值之间的计量模型,分析了不同的产业结构下物流业与三大产业之间的数量关系,发现产业结构发展的不同阶段,物流业与各个产业之间的数量关系也在变化。各个时期对物流业的规模产生主要影响的产业也会有所不同。建立了国民经济的各个主要产业与物流业主要活动的灰色关联度模型,计算结果表明交通运输规模与第一产业发展最相适应,仓储物流业规模与工业、建筑业和批发零售业的发展较为适应。各个产业部门增加值与流通加工包装物流业增加值的灰色综合关联度相差不大,第一产业增加值与流通加工与包装物流业增加值的灰色综合关联度最低,这与当今我国农业产业化程度低是分不开的。
运用投入产出方法发现了物流业产业地位、影响力系数、感应度系数、生产诱发系数及最终依赖度的变化机制。分析发现物流业的影响度在提高,对国民经济的推动作用在加大,但其感应度系数很低,表明其仍然处于国民经济发展的瓶颈地位。同时,物流业提供的服务中有更大比例的产品与服务转向了最终需求。
研究了物流业关联产业网络及其关联产业变动机制。明确了物流产业的前向和后向关联产业。物流产业波及广泛,在所有部门中,全部部门都与物流业有直接前向联系和完全的前向、后向关联关系,只有金属采矿业和废品废料两个部门与物流业无后向的直接联系。完全关联关系较直接关联关系更为显著；物流业的前向关联作用明显强于后向作用,这说明物流业在很大程度上是作为中间产品来满足其他产业部门生产的需要。存在环向关联产业,所有的产业都与物流产业存在间接的环向关联关系,物流业与其直接关联产业及其间接关联产业构成了物流产业网络。充分证明了物流业是国民经济整个产业链条中不可或缺的环节。
物流业的发展需要大量的新技术的应用作为支撑；通过物流业与三大产业的增长率对比发现,物流业增长率仅次于第二产业的增长率,其增长率较高,且具有较强的回顾效应、旁侧效应和前瞻效应。通过分析物流业的需求收入弹性系数和产业关联性指标,认为物流业应成为我国的新的经济增长点和国民经济的支柱产业。并提出了物流业的发展要从总量和结构上适合国民经济发展的需要。提出物流业要从纵向和横向两个方面进行资源整合；提出物流业外部融合的发展思路,分析物流业外部融合的基础、内在动因和外在动因,并指出物流业应与农业、制造业、建筑业、房地产业、金融业等进行产业融合,提供更有针对性的服务,以促进国民经济的快速发展。
The revitalization of the logistics industry can rapidly improve the overall quality and operation efficiency of China's national economy, logistics is most important for optimizing the resources allocation, improving the investment environment, improving the economic operation quality and enhancing the national comprehensive strength.
In this paper, the author established the econometric model of logistics value added and logistics industry investment with national economy total quantity under different industrial structure, and conducted an empirical study. The logistics value added generated by every ten thousand yuan of gross domestic product was increasing. Aggregate analysis results show that the development of logistics industry is relatively stable while the industrial structure is relatively stable. The logistics industry has fierce fluctuations when the Industrial structure changes. And then studied the relationship between the logistics industry's value added and the national economic structure, found that there was a highly positive correlation between the logistics value added generated by ten thousand yuan of gross domestic product and the proportion of the sum of the second and third industry gross domestic product accounted for the total national economy. The investment in transportation system, as a part of the total investment in logistics industry, its driving effect to the national economy is greater than the later, but its driving effect to the national economy is decreasing.
This paper established the econometric model of logistics value added and the three industries value added under different industrial structure. In the different period of national economy development, the quantitative relationship of the logistics industry and other industries is different. The main industries which impact the size of the logistics are different in different period, established the generalized gray relatedness model of main activities of logistics industry with main industries of national economy. The result shows that the size of transportation is most suited to the primary industry, the size of warehousing is most suited to the industrial, construction and wholesale retail trade. The generalized gray relatedness of primary industry added value and circulation packaging distribution logistics value added is the lowest, the low level of agricultural industrialization in China is the main reason.
Used input-output method, the author found the changes mechanism of logistics industry status, the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, the production factor and ultimately dependence coefficient. The impact of the logistics industry is increasing, the role of promoting national economy is enhanced, but its sensitivity coefficient is still very low, which shows that it is still the bottleneck of national economic development. With development of the national economy, a greater proportion of products and services provided by logistics industry have turned to final demand.
This paper studied on the associated industrial networks of logistics industrial and its change mechanisms. The research on forward and backward correlative industry of logistics, shows that logistics industry spreads very widely. Among all departments, except that metal mining and waste product & waste material have no direct backward correlation with logistics, all other departments have complete forward correlation, complete backward correlation and direct forward correlation with logistics industry. The complete correlation is more significant than the direct correlation; Logistics'forward correlation is higher than the backward correlation, which indicates that logistics industry, to a great extent, acts as the intermediate product to meet the production requirements of other industries. Some industries have ring direction correlative relationships with logistics. Logistics industry and its direct and indirect correlative industries constitute a logistics industrial network. At the same time, all industries have indirect ring direction correlative relationships with logistics. They provide products to logistics industry via other industries and also consume products and services provided by the logistics industry via other industries. The analysis above fully proved the importance of logistics industry in our national economic system; it is indispensable to the whole industrial chain.
The development of the logistics industry requires a lot of new technologies. Its own growth rate is high, it also has high recall effect, lateral effect and forward-looking effect. Logistics industry should be developed as a leading industry in the current stage of China, and it should be China's new economic growth point and pillar industry. The development of the logistics industry should meet the national economic development requirements from the total amount, structure and development trend. It should integrate the resources from vertical and horizontal two directions to improve the resource utilization efficiency and reduce logistics cost. This paper developed the ideas of the external integration of logistics industry, analyzed the basis, internal and external reasons of the external integration, and pointed out that the logistics industry should integrate with agriculture, manufacturing, construction, real estate and financial industries to fully use the resources, provide more targeted services, and promote the rapid development of the national economy.
本文建立了不同产业结构下物流业增加值和物流业投资与国民经济总量的计量关系模型,并进行了实证研究。发现每万元国内生产总值产生的物流业增加值呈现增加趋势。总量分析结果表明,产业结构变化相对平稳时期,物流业的发展也相对平稳；产业结构变动剧烈,物流业的发展也会出现剧烈的波动。继而研究了物流产业增加值与国民经济结构的关系,发现万元国内生产总值产生的物流业增加值与第二、三次产业生产总值之和占国民经济总量的比重成高度正相关关系。而交通运输系统投资作为物流业投资的一部分,对国民经济的带动作用大于整体物流投资对国民经济的带动作用,同时也发现交通运输投资对于国民经济的带动作用在逐渐减小。
建立了产业结构不同发展阶段三次产业增加值与物流业增加值之间的计量模型,分析了不同的产业结构下物流业与三大产业之间的数量关系,发现产业结构发展的不同阶段,物流业与各个产业之间的数量关系也在变化。各个时期对物流业的规模产生主要影响的产业也会有所不同。建立了国民经济的各个主要产业与物流业主要活动的灰色关联度模型,计算结果表明交通运输规模与第一产业发展最相适应,仓储物流业规模与工业、建筑业和批发零售业的发展较为适应。各个产业部门增加值与流通加工包装物流业增加值的灰色综合关联度相差不大,第一产业增加值与流通加工与包装物流业增加值的灰色综合关联度最低,这与当今我国农业产业化程度低是分不开的。
运用投入产出方法发现了物流业产业地位、影响力系数、感应度系数、生产诱发系数及最终依赖度的变化机制。分析发现物流业的影响度在提高,对国民经济的推动作用在加大,但其感应度系数很低,表明其仍然处于国民经济发展的瓶颈地位。同时,物流业提供的服务中有更大比例的产品与服务转向了最终需求。
研究了物流业关联产业网络及其关联产业变动机制。明确了物流产业的前向和后向关联产业。物流产业波及广泛,在所有部门中,全部部门都与物流业有直接前向联系和完全的前向、后向关联关系,只有金属采矿业和废品废料两个部门与物流业无后向的直接联系。完全关联关系较直接关联关系更为显著；物流业的前向关联作用明显强于后向作用,这说明物流业在很大程度上是作为中间产品来满足其他产业部门生产的需要。存在环向关联产业,所有的产业都与物流产业存在间接的环向关联关系,物流业与其直接关联产业及其间接关联产业构成了物流产业网络。充分证明了物流业是国民经济整个产业链条中不可或缺的环节。
物流业的发展需要大量的新技术的应用作为支撑；通过物流业与三大产业的增长率对比发现,物流业增长率仅次于第二产业的增长率,其增长率较高,且具有较强的回顾效应、旁侧效应和前瞻效应。通过分析物流业的需求收入弹性系数和产业关联性指标,认为物流业应成为我国的新的经济增长点和国民经济的支柱产业。并提出了物流业的发展要从总量和结构上适合国民经济发展的需要。提出物流业要从纵向和横向两个方面进行资源整合；提出物流业外部融合的发展思路,分析物流业外部融合的基础、内在动因和外在动因,并指出物流业应与农业、制造业、建筑业、房地产业、金融业等进行产业融合,提供更有针对性的服务,以促进国民经济的快速发展。
The revitalization of the logistics industry can rapidly improve the overall quality and operation efficiency of China's national economy, logistics is most important for optimizing the resources allocation, improving the investment environment, improving the economic operation quality and enhancing the national comprehensive strength.
In this paper, the author established the econometric model of logistics value added and logistics industry investment with national economy total quantity under different industrial structure, and conducted an empirical study. The logistics value added generated by every ten thousand yuan of gross domestic product was increasing. Aggregate analysis results show that the development of logistics industry is relatively stable while the industrial structure is relatively stable. The logistics industry has fierce fluctuations when the Industrial structure changes. And then studied the relationship between the logistics industry's value added and the national economic structure, found that there was a highly positive correlation between the logistics value added generated by ten thousand yuan of gross domestic product and the proportion of the sum of the second and third industry gross domestic product accounted for the total national economy. The investment in transportation system, as a part of the total investment in logistics industry, its driving effect to the national economy is greater than the later, but its driving effect to the national economy is decreasing.
This paper established the econometric model of logistics value added and the three industries value added under different industrial structure. In the different period of national economy development, the quantitative relationship of the logistics industry and other industries is different. The main industries which impact the size of the logistics are different in different period, established the generalized gray relatedness model of main activities of logistics industry with main industries of national economy. The result shows that the size of transportation is most suited to the primary industry, the size of warehousing is most suited to the industrial, construction and wholesale retail trade. The generalized gray relatedness of primary industry added value and circulation packaging distribution logistics value added is the lowest, the low level of agricultural industrialization in China is the main reason.
Used input-output method, the author found the changes mechanism of logistics industry status, the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficient, the production factor and ultimately dependence coefficient. The impact of the logistics industry is increasing, the role of promoting national economy is enhanced, but its sensitivity coefficient is still very low, which shows that it is still the bottleneck of national economic development. With development of the national economy, a greater proportion of products and services provided by logistics industry have turned to final demand.
This paper studied on the associated industrial networks of logistics industrial and its change mechanisms. The research on forward and backward correlative industry of logistics, shows that logistics industry spreads very widely. Among all departments, except that metal mining and waste product & waste material have no direct backward correlation with logistics, all other departments have complete forward correlation, complete backward correlation and direct forward correlation with logistics industry. The complete correlation is more significant than the direct correlation; Logistics'forward correlation is higher than the backward correlation, which indicates that logistics industry, to a great extent, acts as the intermediate product to meet the production requirements of other industries. Some industries have ring direction correlative relationships with logistics. Logistics industry and its direct and indirect correlative industries constitute a logistics industrial network. At the same time, all industries have indirect ring direction correlative relationships with logistics. They provide products to logistics industry via other industries and also consume products and services provided by the logistics industry via other industries. The analysis above fully proved the importance of logistics industry in our national economic system; it is indispensable to the whole industrial chain.
The development of the logistics industry requires a lot of new technologies. Its own growth rate is high, it also has high recall effect, lateral effect and forward-looking effect. Logistics industry should be developed as a leading industry in the current stage of China, and it should be China's new economic growth point and pillar industry. The development of the logistics industry should meet the national economic development requirements from the total amount, structure and development trend. It should integrate the resources from vertical and horizontal two directions to improve the resource utilization efficiency and reduce logistics cost. This paper developed the ideas of the external integration of logistics industry, analyzed the basis, internal and external reasons of the external integration, and pointed out that the logistics industry should integrate with agriculture, manufacturing, construction, real estate and financial industries to fully use the resources, provide more targeted services, and promote the rapid development of the national economy.
引文
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