中国区域贸易自由化的政治经济分析
|
摘要
20世纪90年代以来,世界范围内兴起了新一轮的区域贸易自由化浪潮。与上世纪50年代的区域贸易自由化不同的是,这些新签订的区域贸易协定不但在合作领域上更加广泛,同时合作的深度也明显加大。越来越多的区域贸易协定将服务贸易、竞争政策、投资规则甚至劳工标准等非传统的合作领域包括在内。在区域贸易自由化的表现形式上,多以自由贸易协定或自由贸易区的形式出现,并且北-北型自由贸易协定、南-北型自由贸易协定的数目不断增加。中国在2002年签订了第一个区域贸易协定——中国-东盟自由贸易协定。目前中国已签订的区域贸易协定还有中国-巴基斯坦FTA、中国-智利FTA、中国-秘鲁FTA和中国-新西兰FTA等。中国正在谈判、研究中的FTA还有几十个,伙伴国(地区)既有发展中国家(经济体)也有发达国家(经济体)。在党的十七大报告中也明确提出要“积极实施自由贸易区战略”,可以预见的是,区域贸易自由化战略的实施将对中国在未来的经济、社会发展中具有重要的影响。区域贸易自由化政策决策的特征与区域贸易协定的最终安排关系密切,并会影响到区域贸易自由化战略的实际成效。因此,对区域贸易自由化政策决策的研究更具有现实的意义。
对区域贸易自由化的经济学分析起始于Viner (1950)对关税同盟的开创性研究。在Viner所提出的“贸易创造”效应和“贸易转移”效应基础之上,更多的经济学者对区域贸易自由化的福利效应进行了深入和富有洞见的分析。但研究的结果并没有对一国参与区域贸易自由化的福利效应这一问题给出明确的答案,在理论上一国参与区域贸易自由化的福利效应既可能为正也可能为负。对区域贸易自由化的纯经济学分析的结果难以解释日益增多的区域贸易自由化安排的现实,因此新的分析方法不断被引入到该领域的研究当中来。将政治经济学分析方法引入该领域,为研究区域贸易自由化的动机、效应和结果提供了有力的分析工具,并获得了相当的进展。政治经济学理论的分析框架和分析方法在区域贸易自由化领域的研究中也正处于不断发展和更新的进程中。
本文将政治经济学理论框架和分析方法与中国区域贸易自由化的实际相结合,分析了中国区域贸易自由化的目标、动机和政策决策特征等问题。从理论和实证两个方面指出了中国区域贸易自由化政策决策的特征和预期的政策决策结果之间的联系,期望为更合理地设计中国区域贸易自由化战略提供参考。本文的主要部分和研究结果如下。
区域贸易自由化经济与政治经济分析文献综述部分。从区域贸易自由化的理论研究的历史线索看,主要分为两个路径：一是以“贸易创造”效应和“贸易转移”效应为基础的纯经济分析,主要是研究区域贸易自由化对一国的经济福利效应。二是,在纯经济学分析的基础上将政策决策的政治过程纳入到分析框架中,以确定什么样的区域贸易协定可以达成并预测政策的均衡结果。文献综述部分梳理了相应的理论成果、研究方法和经验研究的结论。
中国区域贸易自由化的国家目标部分。首先在一个政策决策一般分析框架下,讨论了中国政治体制的性质、特征及其对中国区域贸易自由政策决策影响,并提出了中国区域贸易自由化中“国家战略目标”是一个重要的影响因素的推论。第二,利用中国已签订的区域贸易协定中中方工业行业进口关税减让幅度的数据,对国家战略目标与中国区域贸易协定的关税减让的实际安排进行了检验,实证的结果支持国家战略目标是中国区域贸易自由化政策决策中的重要影响因素的判断。第三,对中国区域贸易自由化的经济绩效进行了实证分析,实证分析的结果显示,中国区域贸易自由化对中国经济发展具有积极意义。
中国区域贸易自由化政策决策的国内利益集团影响部分。首先分析了中国在区域贸易自由化政策决策过程中的参与主体、行为动机,并讨论了不同主体对政策决策的影响能力差异。第二,利用一个实证模型检验了中国国内利益集团对政策决策部门的压力对区域贸易协定中中国工业行业进口关税减让的影响,结果显示,国内利益集团对中国政府的区域贸易协定中中国工业行业进口关税减让安排的影响有限,实证结果与中国现实的政治经济特征相吻合。
中国区域贸易自由化的外部影响因素部分。首先讨论了在中国加入世界贸易组织后仍积极实施区域贸易自由化战略的外部动因,WTO成员身份并没有有效减轻中国在外贸领域所面临的压力。中国与主要贸易伙伴,尤其是与美国的双边关系、世界范围内区域主义的兴起等因素,决定了中国主动、积极实施区域贸易自由化战略的必然性和重要性。
结论与前瞻部分。总结了本文的主要研究结论及将来进一步的研究方向和尚待解决的问题。
There are a new wave of regional trade liberalization in the world since 1990s. Many of new regional trade agreements show an increasing sophistication, including liberalization of trade in services, investment, competition policy, labor and environment standards. The cooperation scope of the regional trade agreements is more and more abroad, differently with the old ones of 1950s. More regional trade agreements have signed as free trade agreements (abreviated as FTA). Also significant is the increasing numbers of north-north, north-south free trade agreements. China's enthusiasm in pursuing regional free trade agreement has lasted at least more than a decade. However this enthusiasm for signed free trade agreements dates only from the beginning of the twenty-first centry. In 2002 the China-ASEAN free trade agreement was signed. Thereafter China-Pakistan FTA, China-Chile FTA, China-Peru FTA and China-New Zealand FTA has signed. China is negotiating or studying dozens of FTAs with other developed and developing countries. The Report to 17th National Congress of CPC has pointed the importance of the Strategy of free trade areas. The strategy of free trade areas will be an important positive elements to China's economic deveplopment. The equilibrium of regional free trade is closely related to the regional trade liberalization policy-making process. Therefor, the study of regional trade liberalization policy-making process has important practical significance.
The economic analysis of regional trade liberalization begins with Viner's seminal research in 1950. Many subsequent studies based on the Viner's'trade creation'and'trade diversion'have provided rich insights into this field. However, there are perplexities between some results and others. New theoretical method should be included in this field. New political economy of trade policy offered a plausible method for the research of regional trade agreement.
The paper banded the new political economy and the real situation of China's regional trade liberalization acts, mainly analyzed the regional trade liberalization politics in China. The main body and research results of the paper as follows.
In the regional trade liberalization theory and empirical study review parts. We introduced from the early theory and emipircal papers, mainly described two research clues. The first is the pure economic analysis on the regional trade liberalization. The second clue is political economic methods, which include the policy-making process in the analysis framework to predict the equilibrium of regional trade agreements. This part summarised and contrasted the related research conclusions and methods.
The China's regional trade liberalization and National goals part. First, used a general analytical framework of the policy-making, I proposed that China's national goals of the regional trade liberalization is an important consideration in the policy decisions. And then, the empirical analysis results of the tariff reduction of industries pruducts in China's regional trade agreements have suported the above-mentioned judgement. Third, the empirical analysis results show that there is a positive correlation between the regional trade liberalization and export expands,economic growth of China.
The China's regional trade liberalization and the interest groups'pressure part. First, I analyized the participation bodies in the policy-making process of China's regional trade liberalization and their motiviations, and their capacity differences. Secondly, the empirical analysis results show that China's domestic interest groups have limited capacity on the regional trade liberalization policy-making. This result consistent with China's political and economic realities.
The China's regional trade liberalization and the impacts of external factors. With the integration into the world economy, the external pressure including WTO institution settings, bilateral relationship with major trading partners and other regionalisms, on China determines the government to implement regional trade liberalization strategy actively.
Conclusions and outlines of the further study part. Summarized the main findings, and further research directions.
对区域贸易自由化的经济学分析起始于Viner (1950)对关税同盟的开创性研究。在Viner所提出的“贸易创造”效应和“贸易转移”效应基础之上,更多的经济学者对区域贸易自由化的福利效应进行了深入和富有洞见的分析。但研究的结果并没有对一国参与区域贸易自由化的福利效应这一问题给出明确的答案,在理论上一国参与区域贸易自由化的福利效应既可能为正也可能为负。对区域贸易自由化的纯经济学分析的结果难以解释日益增多的区域贸易自由化安排的现实,因此新的分析方法不断被引入到该领域的研究当中来。将政治经济学分析方法引入该领域,为研究区域贸易自由化的动机、效应和结果提供了有力的分析工具,并获得了相当的进展。政治经济学理论的分析框架和分析方法在区域贸易自由化领域的研究中也正处于不断发展和更新的进程中。
本文将政治经济学理论框架和分析方法与中国区域贸易自由化的实际相结合,分析了中国区域贸易自由化的目标、动机和政策决策特征等问题。从理论和实证两个方面指出了中国区域贸易自由化政策决策的特征和预期的政策决策结果之间的联系,期望为更合理地设计中国区域贸易自由化战略提供参考。本文的主要部分和研究结果如下。
区域贸易自由化经济与政治经济分析文献综述部分。从区域贸易自由化的理论研究的历史线索看,主要分为两个路径：一是以“贸易创造”效应和“贸易转移”效应为基础的纯经济分析,主要是研究区域贸易自由化对一国的经济福利效应。二是,在纯经济学分析的基础上将政策决策的政治过程纳入到分析框架中,以确定什么样的区域贸易协定可以达成并预测政策的均衡结果。文献综述部分梳理了相应的理论成果、研究方法和经验研究的结论。
中国区域贸易自由化的国家目标部分。首先在一个政策决策一般分析框架下,讨论了中国政治体制的性质、特征及其对中国区域贸易自由政策决策影响,并提出了中国区域贸易自由化中“国家战略目标”是一个重要的影响因素的推论。第二,利用中国已签订的区域贸易协定中中方工业行业进口关税减让幅度的数据,对国家战略目标与中国区域贸易协定的关税减让的实际安排进行了检验,实证的结果支持国家战略目标是中国区域贸易自由化政策决策中的重要影响因素的判断。第三,对中国区域贸易自由化的经济绩效进行了实证分析,实证分析的结果显示,中国区域贸易自由化对中国经济发展具有积极意义。
中国区域贸易自由化政策决策的国内利益集团影响部分。首先分析了中国在区域贸易自由化政策决策过程中的参与主体、行为动机,并讨论了不同主体对政策决策的影响能力差异。第二,利用一个实证模型检验了中国国内利益集团对政策决策部门的压力对区域贸易协定中中国工业行业进口关税减让的影响,结果显示,国内利益集团对中国政府的区域贸易协定中中国工业行业进口关税减让安排的影响有限,实证结果与中国现实的政治经济特征相吻合。
中国区域贸易自由化的外部影响因素部分。首先讨论了在中国加入世界贸易组织后仍积极实施区域贸易自由化战略的外部动因,WTO成员身份并没有有效减轻中国在外贸领域所面临的压力。中国与主要贸易伙伴,尤其是与美国的双边关系、世界范围内区域主义的兴起等因素,决定了中国主动、积极实施区域贸易自由化战略的必然性和重要性。
结论与前瞻部分。总结了本文的主要研究结论及将来进一步的研究方向和尚待解决的问题。
There are a new wave of regional trade liberalization in the world since 1990s. Many of new regional trade agreements show an increasing sophistication, including liberalization of trade in services, investment, competition policy, labor and environment standards. The cooperation scope of the regional trade agreements is more and more abroad, differently with the old ones of 1950s. More regional trade agreements have signed as free trade agreements (abreviated as FTA). Also significant is the increasing numbers of north-north, north-south free trade agreements. China's enthusiasm in pursuing regional free trade agreement has lasted at least more than a decade. However this enthusiasm for signed free trade agreements dates only from the beginning of the twenty-first centry. In 2002 the China-ASEAN free trade agreement was signed. Thereafter China-Pakistan FTA, China-Chile FTA, China-Peru FTA and China-New Zealand FTA has signed. China is negotiating or studying dozens of FTAs with other developed and developing countries. The Report to 17th National Congress of CPC has pointed the importance of the Strategy of free trade areas. The strategy of free trade areas will be an important positive elements to China's economic deveplopment. The equilibrium of regional free trade is closely related to the regional trade liberalization policy-making process. Therefor, the study of regional trade liberalization policy-making process has important practical significance.
The economic analysis of regional trade liberalization begins with Viner's seminal research in 1950. Many subsequent studies based on the Viner's'trade creation'and'trade diversion'have provided rich insights into this field. However, there are perplexities between some results and others. New theoretical method should be included in this field. New political economy of trade policy offered a plausible method for the research of regional trade agreement.
The paper banded the new political economy and the real situation of China's regional trade liberalization acts, mainly analyzed the regional trade liberalization politics in China. The main body and research results of the paper as follows.
In the regional trade liberalization theory and empirical study review parts. We introduced from the early theory and emipircal papers, mainly described two research clues. The first is the pure economic analysis on the regional trade liberalization. The second clue is political economic methods, which include the policy-making process in the analysis framework to predict the equilibrium of regional trade agreements. This part summarised and contrasted the related research conclusions and methods.
The China's regional trade liberalization and National goals part. First, used a general analytical framework of the policy-making, I proposed that China's national goals of the regional trade liberalization is an important consideration in the policy decisions. And then, the empirical analysis results of the tariff reduction of industries pruducts in China's regional trade agreements have suported the above-mentioned judgement. Third, the empirical analysis results show that there is a positive correlation between the regional trade liberalization and export expands,economic growth of China.
The China's regional trade liberalization and the interest groups'pressure part. First, I analyized the participation bodies in the policy-making process of China's regional trade liberalization and their motiviations, and their capacity differences. Secondly, the empirical analysis results show that China's domestic interest groups have limited capacity on the regional trade liberalization policy-making. This result consistent with China's political and economic realities.
The China's regional trade liberalization and the impacts of external factors. With the integration into the world economy, the external pressure including WTO institution settings, bilateral relationship with major trading partners and other regionalisms, on China determines the government to implement regional trade liberalization strategy actively.
Conclusions and outlines of the further study part. Summarized the main findings, and further research directions.
引文
[1].Anderson, J. E. and E. van Wincoop. "Gravity with Gravitas:A Solution to the Border Problem." [J]. American Economic Review, Vol.93, No.1,2003:170-192.
[2].Alain, S. "A Survey of the Plitical Economy of Customs Unions." [J]. Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol.44, No.3,1981:33-53.
[3].Aitken, B. J. and Harrison, A. E. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela." [J]. The American Economic Review, Vol.89, No.3,1999:605-618.
[4].Arrow, K. J. Social Choice and Individual Values. [M]. New York:Wiley, 1951.
[5].Baier, S. L. and Bergstrand, J. H. "Do Free Trade Agreement Actually Increase Members'International Trade?"[J]. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 71,2007:72-95.
[6].Baldwin, R. E. "Big-think Regionalism:A Critical Survey." NBER Working Paper, No.14056,2008.
[7].Baldwin, R. E. "A Domino Theory of Regionalism." [A], in Baldwin, R.E., Haaparanta, P., and Kiander, J. (eds) Expanding Membership of the European Union, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press 1995.
[8].Baldwin, R. E. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy." [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol.3, No.4,1989.
[9].Bhagwati, J. N. "Regionalism and Multilateralism:An Overview." [A]. in New Dimensions in Regional Integration. Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagaryiya, eds. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1993:22-51.
[10].Bhagwati, J. N. "The Generalised Theory of Distortions and Welfare" [A]. in Bhagwati, J. N., Jones, R. W., Mundell, R. A. en Vanek, J. (red.), Trade, Balance of Payments and Growth:Essays in Honor of Charles P. Kindleberger, North-Holland, Amsterdam,1971.
[11].Bagwell, K. and Staiger, R. "Will Preferential Agreements Undermine the Multilateral Trading System?" [A]. in J. Bhagwati, K. Krishna and A. Panagariya, eds. Trading Blocs:Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Preferential Trade Arrangements, Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT Press,1999.
[12].Black, D. "On the Regional of Groupe Decision Making." [J]. Journal of Political Economy, Feb.1948.
[13].Bown, C. P. "China's WTO Entry:Antidumping,Safeguards,and Dispute Settlement", NBER Working Paper, NO.13349,2007.
[14].Brander, J. A., Krugman, P. "A Reciprocal dumping model of international trade", NBER Working paper, No.1194.
[15].Branstetter, L. G and Sakakibara, M. "When do Research Consortia Work Well and Why? Evidence from Japanese Panel Data." [J]. The American Economic Review, Vol.92, No.1,2002:143-159.
[16].Burfisher, M. E. and Jones, E. "Introduction and Overview" [A], in M. E. Burfisher and E. Jones, Regional Trade Agreements and U.S. Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington DC. AER No.771,1998.
[17].Cadot, O., Melo, J.de, Orlarreaga, M. "Regional integration and lobbying for tariffs against nonmembers." [J]. International Economic Review, Vol.40, No.3, Aug.1999:635-658.
[18].Caves, R., "The Economics of Reciprocity:Theory and Evidence on Bilateral Trading Arrangements." [A]. in Sellekaerts, W., ed., International Trade and Finance. Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen, London, MacMillan,1974.
[19].Chase, K. A. "Economic Interests and Regional Trade Arrangements:The Case of NAFTA." [J].International Orgnization, Vol.57, No.1,2003:137-174.
[20].Coe, D. T., Helpman, E. and Hoffmaister, A. "North-South R&D Spillovers." [J]. Economic Journal, Vol.107, No.440,1997:134-149.
[21].Corden, W. M. "Economies of Scale and Customs Union Theory." [J]. The Journal of Political Economy 80(3),1972:465-475.
[22].Corden, W. M. Trade Policy and Economic Welfare. [M]. Oxford: Clarendon Press,1974.
[23].Dutt, P., Mitra, D. "Endogenous Trade Policy through Majority Voting." [J]. Journal of International Economics, No.58,2002:107-134.
[24].Endoh, M. "Quality of Governance and the Formation of Preferential Trade Agreements." [J]. Review of International Economics,14(5),2006:758-772.
[25].Ethier, Wilfred J. "Regionalism in a Multilateral World." [J]. Journal of Political Economy,106(6),1998:1214-1245.
[26].Fieleke, N. "The Tariff Structure for Manufacturing Industries in the United States:A Test for Some Traditional Explanations." [J]. Columbia Journal of World Business,1976:98-104.
[27].Fernandez, R. and Rodrik, D. "Resistance to Reform:Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty." [J]. American Economic Review 81, 1991:1146-1155.
[28].Frankel, J. A., E. Stein, and S-J. Wei. "Trading Blocs and the Americas:The Natural, the Unnatural and the Supernatural." [J]. Journal of Dvelopment Economics, 47(1),1995:61-95.
[29].Frankel, J. A., E. Stein, and S-J. Wei. "Regional Trading Arrangenments: Natrual or Supernatrual?" [J]. American Economic Review, Vol.86, No.2,1996: 52-56.
[30].Frankel, J. A. and Romer, D. "Does Trade Cause Growth?" [J]. American Economic Review, Vol.89, No.3,1999:379-399.
[31].Gawande, K., Sanguinetti, P. and Bohara, A. K. "Exclusions for Sale: Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman theory of free trade agreements." University of New Mexico, Manuscript,2005.
[32].Gawande, K. and Bandyopadhyay, U. "Is Protection for Sale? A Test of the Grossman-Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection." [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics 82,2000:139-152.
[33].Gehrels, Franz. "Customs Union from a Single-Country Viewpoint." [J]. Review of Economic Studies,24:6,1956:61-64.
[34].Goldberg, P. K. and Maggi, G. "Protection for Sale:An Empirical Investigation." [J]. American Economic Review 89,1999:1135-1155.
[35].Grindle, M. S. "The New Political Economy:Political Economics and Negative Politics", Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper 304, Washington D.C.:World Bank,1989.
[36].Grossman, G and Helpman, E. "The Politics of Free Trade Agreements." [J]. American Economic Review 85,1995:667-690.
[37].Grossman, G and Helpman, E. "Protection for Sale." [J]. American Economic Review 84,1994:833-850.
[38].Haggard, S. "Regionalism in Asia and the Americas" [A], in The Political Economy Regionalism, edited by Edward D. Mansfield and Helen V. Milner,20-49. New York:Columbia University Press,1997.
[39].He Jianming and Yang Yongzheng. "The Political Economy of Trade Liberalization in China.", Asia Pacific School of Economics and Management Working Paper 1999-1. Australia National University,1999.
[40].Helpman, E., Melitz, M., Yeaple, S. R. "Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms." [J]. American Economic Review,94,2004.
[41].Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. R. Trade Policy and Market Structure. [M]. London:The MIT Press,1989.
[42].Hillman, A. L. The Political Economy of Protection. [M]. London:Harwood Academic Publishers,1989.
[43].Hamilton, B., and Whalley, J. "Geographically Discriminatory Trade Arrangements." [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.3,1985.
[44]Johnson, H. G. "The Economic Theroy of Customs Union." [J]. Pakistan Economic Journal, Vol.10, No.l,1960.
[45].Kemp, M., C. The Pure Theory of International Trade. [M]. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice Hall,1964:176-177.
[46].Kemp, M. and Wan, Jr. "An Elementary Proposition Concerning the Formation of Customs Unions." [A], in:M. Kemp, ed., Three topics in the theory of international trade:Distribution, welfare and uncertainty, Amsterdam:North-Holland, 1976:95-97.
[47].Krishna, A. O. "Regionalism and Mutilateralism:A Political Economy Approach." [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 113, No.1,1998:227-251.
[48].Kose, M. A., and Reisman, R. "Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements." [J]. Review of International Economics, Vol.8, No.4, 2000:619-633.
[49].Krugman, P. "Is Bilateralism Bad?" [A]. in International Trade and Trade Policy, E. Helpman and A. Razin, eds., Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1991:9-23.
[50].Krugman, P. "Regionalism versus Multilateralism:Analytical Notes." [A]. in Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagariya, eds., New Dimensions in Regional Integration. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1993.
[51].Lipsey, R. "The Theory of Customs Union:Trade Diversion and Welfare." [J]. Economica, Vol.24,1957:40-46.
[52].Lipsey, R. The Theory of Customs Unions:A General Equilibrium Analysis. [M]. London, Weidenfeld and Nicholson,1970.
[53].Magee, S. P., Brock, W. A., and Young, L. Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory:Political Economy in General Equilibrium. [M]. Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1989.
[54].Mayer, W. "Endogenous Tariff Formation." [J]. American Economic Review, Vol.74, No.5,1984:970-985.
[55].McCalman, P. "Protection for Sale and Trade Liberalization:An Empirical Investigation." [J]. Review of International Economics, Vol.12, Issue 1,2004.
[56].Meade, J. The Theory of Customs Union. [M]. Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1955.
[57].Messerlin, P. A. "Bureaucracies and Political Economy of Protection: Reflection of A Continental European." World Bank Staff Working Paper, No.568. Washington, D.C.:World Bank.
[58].Mitra, D., Thomakos, D. D., and Ulubsoglu, M. A. "Protection for Sale in a Developing Country:Democracy Versus Dictatorship." [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2002.
[59].Mitra, D. "Endogenous Lobby Formation and Endogenous Protection:A Long-Run Model of Trade Policy Determination." [J]. American Economic Review, 89,1999:1116-1134.
[60].Mundell, R. "Tariff Preferences and the Terms of Trade." [J]. Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, Vol.32,1964:1-13.
[61].Ohyama, Michihiro. "Trade and Welfare in General Equilibrium." [J]. Keio Economic Studies,9,1972:37-73.
[62].Panagariya, A. and Krishna, P. "On the Existence of Necessarily Welfare-Enhancing Free Trade Areas." [J]. Journal of International Economics,57, 2002:353-367.
[63].Panagariya, A. "Preferential Trade Liberalization:The Traditional Theory and New Developments." [J]. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.38,2000:287-331.
[64].Panagariya, A. "Preferential Trading and Welfare:The Small Union Case Revisited", Mimeo, U. of Maryland,1999.
[65].Panagariya, A. "Do Transport Costs Justify Regional Preferential Trade Arrangements? No", Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,134(2),1998.
[66].Panagariya, A. "The Meade Model of Preferential Trading:History, Analytics and Policy Implications." [A]. in International Trade and Finance:New Frontiers for Research, Essays in Honor of Peter B. Kenen, J. Cohen. ed., NY. Cambridge University Press,1997.
[67].Pearce, I. International Trade. [M]. Vol.1, London, MacMillan,1970.
[68].Perroni, C. and Whally J. "The New Regionalism Trade Liberalization or Insurance?" [J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.33, No.1,2000:1-24.
[69].Pomfret, R. The Economics of Regional Trading Arrangements. [M]. Oxford:Clarendon Press,1997.
[70].Rodriguez, F. and Rodrik, D. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth:A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence.", NBER Working Paper, No.7081, 1999.
[71].Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. and Trebbi, F. "Institutions Rule:The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development.", NBER Working Paper, No.9305,2002.
[72].Schiff, M. and Winters, L. A. Regional Integration and Development. [R]. Washington D.C.,:The World Bank,2003.
[73].Senhadji, A. "Structural import demand equations.", IMF Staff Papers, June 1998
[74].Soloaga, I. and Winters, L. A. "How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade?", World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.2156,1999.
[75].UNTCMD, World Investment Reportd 1992, Transnational Corporations as Engines of Growth. [M]. New York:United Nations,1992.
[76].USTR, "U.S.-China Trade Relations:Entering a New Phase of Greater Accountability and Enforcement." [R].2006.
[77].USTR press release, "U.S.-Cambodian Textile Agreement Links Increasing Trade with Improving Workers'Rights.",01/07/2002.
[78].USTR press release, "New Andean Trade Benefits.",09/25/2002;
[79].USTR press release, "Dominican Republic Joins Five Central American Countries in Historic FTA with U.S.",08/05/2004.
[80].USTR press release, "U.S. and Morocco Conclude Free Trade Agreement.", 03/02/2004.
[81].USTR press release, "United States and Bahrain Sign Free Trade Agreement.",09/14/2004.
[82].Vanek, J. General Equlibrium of International Discrimination. [M]. Cambridge, Harvard University Press,1965.
[83].Viner, J. The Customs Union Issue. [M]. New York:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,1950.
[84].VanGrasstek, C. "US Plan for a New WTO Round:Negotiating More Agreements with Less Authority." [J]. World Economy, No.9,2000:673-700.
[85].Whally, J. "Why Do Countries Seek Regional Trade Agreements?", NBER Working Paper, No.5552,1996.
[86].White House. "Joint Press Conference of the President and Premier Zhu Rongji of the People's Republic of China." [N]. April 8,1999.
[87].World Bank, Trade Blocs. [R]. World Bank Policy Research Report,2000.
[88].WTO, World Trade Report. [R].2003.
[89].高铁梅编,《计量经济分析方法与建模》,[M].清华大学出版社,2006年1月第一版。
[90].郭定平,《政党和政府》,[M].浙江人民出版社,1998年第一版。
[91].赖明勇、祝树金：《区域贸易自由化：可计算一般均衡模型及应用》,[M].经济科学出版社,2008年3月第一版。
[92].郎永峰、尹翔硕,“中国-东盟FTA贸易效应实证研究”,[J].《世界经济研究》,2009(9)：76-80。
[93].迈克尔·奥汉隆,缓步前行,减少债务,[N].洛杉矶时报,2005.07.30
[94].盛斌,《中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析》,[M].上海人民出版社,2002年11月第一版。
[95].盛斌,“国际贸易政策的政治经济学：理论与经验方法”,[J].《国际政治研究》,2006(2)：73-94。
[96].史智宇,《中国东盟自由贸易区贸易效应实证研究》,[D].上海：复旦大学博士学位论文,2004年。
[97].J.M.伍德里奇著,费剑平、林相森译,《计量经济学导论：现代观点》,[M].中国人民大学出版社,2003年3月第一版。
[98].邢方霞、李敏昌,“我国行业协会现状与发展的路径选择”,[J].《商场现代化》,2007(4)：360-361
[99].朱保华等译,Grossman, M. and Helpman, E.,著,《特殊利益政治学》,[M].上海财经大学出版社,2009年4月第一版。
[100].周建漳,“‘道德人’：计划经济行为为主体的制度假设分析”,[J].《中国社会科学季刊》(香港),夏季卷,总第15期：79-87。
[101].周天勇等著,《中国行政体制改革30年》,[M].格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2008年11月,第一版。
[102].周天勇,“大部制改革的三个关键问题”,[N].《中国经济时报》,2008年3月17日。
[103].《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要》,(http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/P020070912638588995806.pdf)。
[104].《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划的建议》,(http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/P020070912638594328528.pdf)。
[105].《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议货物贸易协议》,中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/dongmeng/dm_xieyijianjie.shtml)。
[106].《中国-智利自由贸易协定》,中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/chile/chile_xieyibeijing.shtml)。
[107].《中国-新西兰自由贸易协定》(2008年4月),中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/newzealand/newzealand_xiedinggaishu.shtml)。
[108].《中国-新加坡自由贸易协定》(2008年10月),中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/singapore/singapore_xiedinggaishu.shtml)。
[2].Alain, S. "A Survey of the Plitical Economy of Customs Unions." [J]. Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol.44, No.3,1981:33-53.
[3].Aitken, B. J. and Harrison, A. E. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela." [J]. The American Economic Review, Vol.89, No.3,1999:605-618.
[4].Arrow, K. J. Social Choice and Individual Values. [M]. New York:Wiley, 1951.
[5].Baier, S. L. and Bergstrand, J. H. "Do Free Trade Agreement Actually Increase Members'International Trade?"[J]. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 71,2007:72-95.
[6].Baldwin, R. E. "Big-think Regionalism:A Critical Survey." NBER Working Paper, No.14056,2008.
[7].Baldwin, R. E. "A Domino Theory of Regionalism." [A], in Baldwin, R.E., Haaparanta, P., and Kiander, J. (eds) Expanding Membership of the European Union, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press 1995.
[8].Baldwin, R. E. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy." [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol.3, No.4,1989.
[9].Bhagwati, J. N. "Regionalism and Multilateralism:An Overview." [A]. in New Dimensions in Regional Integration. Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagaryiya, eds. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1993:22-51.
[10].Bhagwati, J. N. "The Generalised Theory of Distortions and Welfare" [A]. in Bhagwati, J. N., Jones, R. W., Mundell, R. A. en Vanek, J. (red.), Trade, Balance of Payments and Growth:Essays in Honor of Charles P. Kindleberger, North-Holland, Amsterdam,1971.
[11].Bagwell, K. and Staiger, R. "Will Preferential Agreements Undermine the Multilateral Trading System?" [A]. in J. Bhagwati, K. Krishna and A. Panagariya, eds. Trading Blocs:Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Preferential Trade Arrangements, Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT Press,1999.
[12].Black, D. "On the Regional of Groupe Decision Making." [J]. Journal of Political Economy, Feb.1948.
[13].Bown, C. P. "China's WTO Entry:Antidumping,Safeguards,and Dispute Settlement", NBER Working Paper, NO.13349,2007.
[14].Brander, J. A., Krugman, P. "A Reciprocal dumping model of international trade", NBER Working paper, No.1194.
[15].Branstetter, L. G and Sakakibara, M. "When do Research Consortia Work Well and Why? Evidence from Japanese Panel Data." [J]. The American Economic Review, Vol.92, No.1,2002:143-159.
[16].Burfisher, M. E. and Jones, E. "Introduction and Overview" [A], in M. E. Burfisher and E. Jones, Regional Trade Agreements and U.S. Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington DC. AER No.771,1998.
[17].Cadot, O., Melo, J.de, Orlarreaga, M. "Regional integration and lobbying for tariffs against nonmembers." [J]. International Economic Review, Vol.40, No.3, Aug.1999:635-658.
[18].Caves, R., "The Economics of Reciprocity:Theory and Evidence on Bilateral Trading Arrangements." [A]. in Sellekaerts, W., ed., International Trade and Finance. Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen, London, MacMillan,1974.
[19].Chase, K. A. "Economic Interests and Regional Trade Arrangements:The Case of NAFTA." [J].International Orgnization, Vol.57, No.1,2003:137-174.
[20].Coe, D. T., Helpman, E. and Hoffmaister, A. "North-South R&D Spillovers." [J]. Economic Journal, Vol.107, No.440,1997:134-149.
[21].Corden, W. M. "Economies of Scale and Customs Union Theory." [J]. The Journal of Political Economy 80(3),1972:465-475.
[22].Corden, W. M. Trade Policy and Economic Welfare. [M]. Oxford: Clarendon Press,1974.
[23].Dutt, P., Mitra, D. "Endogenous Trade Policy through Majority Voting." [J]. Journal of International Economics, No.58,2002:107-134.
[24].Endoh, M. "Quality of Governance and the Formation of Preferential Trade Agreements." [J]. Review of International Economics,14(5),2006:758-772.
[25].Ethier, Wilfred J. "Regionalism in a Multilateral World." [J]. Journal of Political Economy,106(6),1998:1214-1245.
[26].Fieleke, N. "The Tariff Structure for Manufacturing Industries in the United States:A Test for Some Traditional Explanations." [J]. Columbia Journal of World Business,1976:98-104.
[27].Fernandez, R. and Rodrik, D. "Resistance to Reform:Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty." [J]. American Economic Review 81, 1991:1146-1155.
[28].Frankel, J. A., E. Stein, and S-J. Wei. "Trading Blocs and the Americas:The Natural, the Unnatural and the Supernatural." [J]. Journal of Dvelopment Economics, 47(1),1995:61-95.
[29].Frankel, J. A., E. Stein, and S-J. Wei. "Regional Trading Arrangenments: Natrual or Supernatrual?" [J]. American Economic Review, Vol.86, No.2,1996: 52-56.
[30].Frankel, J. A. and Romer, D. "Does Trade Cause Growth?" [J]. American Economic Review, Vol.89, No.3,1999:379-399.
[31].Gawande, K., Sanguinetti, P. and Bohara, A. K. "Exclusions for Sale: Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman theory of free trade agreements." University of New Mexico, Manuscript,2005.
[32].Gawande, K. and Bandyopadhyay, U. "Is Protection for Sale? A Test of the Grossman-Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection." [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics 82,2000:139-152.
[33].Gehrels, Franz. "Customs Union from a Single-Country Viewpoint." [J]. Review of Economic Studies,24:6,1956:61-64.
[34].Goldberg, P. K. and Maggi, G. "Protection for Sale:An Empirical Investigation." [J]. American Economic Review 89,1999:1135-1155.
[35].Grindle, M. S. "The New Political Economy:Political Economics and Negative Politics", Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper 304, Washington D.C.:World Bank,1989.
[36].Grossman, G and Helpman, E. "The Politics of Free Trade Agreements." [J]. American Economic Review 85,1995:667-690.
[37].Grossman, G and Helpman, E. "Protection for Sale." [J]. American Economic Review 84,1994:833-850.
[38].Haggard, S. "Regionalism in Asia and the Americas" [A], in The Political Economy Regionalism, edited by Edward D. Mansfield and Helen V. Milner,20-49. New York:Columbia University Press,1997.
[39].He Jianming and Yang Yongzheng. "The Political Economy of Trade Liberalization in China.", Asia Pacific School of Economics and Management Working Paper 1999-1. Australia National University,1999.
[40].Helpman, E., Melitz, M., Yeaple, S. R. "Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms." [J]. American Economic Review,94,2004.
[41].Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. R. Trade Policy and Market Structure. [M]. London:The MIT Press,1989.
[42].Hillman, A. L. The Political Economy of Protection. [M]. London:Harwood Academic Publishers,1989.
[43].Hamilton, B., and Whalley, J. "Geographically Discriminatory Trade Arrangements." [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.3,1985.
[44]Johnson, H. G. "The Economic Theroy of Customs Union." [J]. Pakistan Economic Journal, Vol.10, No.l,1960.
[45].Kemp, M., C. The Pure Theory of International Trade. [M]. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice Hall,1964:176-177.
[46].Kemp, M. and Wan, Jr. "An Elementary Proposition Concerning the Formation of Customs Unions." [A], in:M. Kemp, ed., Three topics in the theory of international trade:Distribution, welfare and uncertainty, Amsterdam:North-Holland, 1976:95-97.
[47].Krishna, A. O. "Regionalism and Mutilateralism:A Political Economy Approach." [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 113, No.1,1998:227-251.
[48].Kose, M. A., and Reisman, R. "Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements." [J]. Review of International Economics, Vol.8, No.4, 2000:619-633.
[49].Krugman, P. "Is Bilateralism Bad?" [A]. in International Trade and Trade Policy, E. Helpman and A. Razin, eds., Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1991:9-23.
[50].Krugman, P. "Regionalism versus Multilateralism:Analytical Notes." [A]. in Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagariya, eds., New Dimensions in Regional Integration. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1993.
[51].Lipsey, R. "The Theory of Customs Union:Trade Diversion and Welfare." [J]. Economica, Vol.24,1957:40-46.
[52].Lipsey, R. The Theory of Customs Unions:A General Equilibrium Analysis. [M]. London, Weidenfeld and Nicholson,1970.
[53].Magee, S. P., Brock, W. A., and Young, L. Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory:Political Economy in General Equilibrium. [M]. Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1989.
[54].Mayer, W. "Endogenous Tariff Formation." [J]. American Economic Review, Vol.74, No.5,1984:970-985.
[55].McCalman, P. "Protection for Sale and Trade Liberalization:An Empirical Investigation." [J]. Review of International Economics, Vol.12, Issue 1,2004.
[56].Meade, J. The Theory of Customs Union. [M]. Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1955.
[57].Messerlin, P. A. "Bureaucracies and Political Economy of Protection: Reflection of A Continental European." World Bank Staff Working Paper, No.568. Washington, D.C.:World Bank.
[58].Mitra, D., Thomakos, D. D., and Ulubsoglu, M. A. "Protection for Sale in a Developing Country:Democracy Versus Dictatorship." [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2002.
[59].Mitra, D. "Endogenous Lobby Formation and Endogenous Protection:A Long-Run Model of Trade Policy Determination." [J]. American Economic Review, 89,1999:1116-1134.
[60].Mundell, R. "Tariff Preferences and the Terms of Trade." [J]. Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, Vol.32,1964:1-13.
[61].Ohyama, Michihiro. "Trade and Welfare in General Equilibrium." [J]. Keio Economic Studies,9,1972:37-73.
[62].Panagariya, A. and Krishna, P. "On the Existence of Necessarily Welfare-Enhancing Free Trade Areas." [J]. Journal of International Economics,57, 2002:353-367.
[63].Panagariya, A. "Preferential Trade Liberalization:The Traditional Theory and New Developments." [J]. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.38,2000:287-331.
[64].Panagariya, A. "Preferential Trading and Welfare:The Small Union Case Revisited", Mimeo, U. of Maryland,1999.
[65].Panagariya, A. "Do Transport Costs Justify Regional Preferential Trade Arrangements? No", Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,134(2),1998.
[66].Panagariya, A. "The Meade Model of Preferential Trading:History, Analytics and Policy Implications." [A]. in International Trade and Finance:New Frontiers for Research, Essays in Honor of Peter B. Kenen, J. Cohen. ed., NY. Cambridge University Press,1997.
[67].Pearce, I. International Trade. [M]. Vol.1, London, MacMillan,1970.
[68].Perroni, C. and Whally J. "The New Regionalism Trade Liberalization or Insurance?" [J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.33, No.1,2000:1-24.
[69].Pomfret, R. The Economics of Regional Trading Arrangements. [M]. Oxford:Clarendon Press,1997.
[70].Rodriguez, F. and Rodrik, D. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth:A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence.", NBER Working Paper, No.7081, 1999.
[71].Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. and Trebbi, F. "Institutions Rule:The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development.", NBER Working Paper, No.9305,2002.
[72].Schiff, M. and Winters, L. A. Regional Integration and Development. [R]. Washington D.C.,:The World Bank,2003.
[73].Senhadji, A. "Structural import demand equations.", IMF Staff Papers, June 1998
[74].Soloaga, I. and Winters, L. A. "How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade?", World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.2156,1999.
[75].UNTCMD, World Investment Reportd 1992, Transnational Corporations as Engines of Growth. [M]. New York:United Nations,1992.
[76].USTR, "U.S.-China Trade Relations:Entering a New Phase of Greater Accountability and Enforcement." [R].2006.
[77].USTR press release, "U.S.-Cambodian Textile Agreement Links Increasing Trade with Improving Workers'Rights.",01/07/2002.
[78].USTR press release, "New Andean Trade Benefits.",09/25/2002;
[79].USTR press release, "Dominican Republic Joins Five Central American Countries in Historic FTA with U.S.",08/05/2004.
[80].USTR press release, "U.S. and Morocco Conclude Free Trade Agreement.", 03/02/2004.
[81].USTR press release, "United States and Bahrain Sign Free Trade Agreement.",09/14/2004.
[82].Vanek, J. General Equlibrium of International Discrimination. [M]. Cambridge, Harvard University Press,1965.
[83].Viner, J. The Customs Union Issue. [M]. New York:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,1950.
[84].VanGrasstek, C. "US Plan for a New WTO Round:Negotiating More Agreements with Less Authority." [J]. World Economy, No.9,2000:673-700.
[85].Whally, J. "Why Do Countries Seek Regional Trade Agreements?", NBER Working Paper, No.5552,1996.
[86].White House. "Joint Press Conference of the President and Premier Zhu Rongji of the People's Republic of China." [N]. April 8,1999.
[87].World Bank, Trade Blocs. [R]. World Bank Policy Research Report,2000.
[88].WTO, World Trade Report. [R].2003.
[89].高铁梅编,《计量经济分析方法与建模》,[M].清华大学出版社,2006年1月第一版。
[90].郭定平,《政党和政府》,[M].浙江人民出版社,1998年第一版。
[91].赖明勇、祝树金：《区域贸易自由化：可计算一般均衡模型及应用》,[M].经济科学出版社,2008年3月第一版。
[92].郎永峰、尹翔硕,“中国-东盟FTA贸易效应实证研究”,[J].《世界经济研究》,2009(9)：76-80。
[93].迈克尔·奥汉隆,缓步前行,减少债务,[N].洛杉矶时报,2005.07.30
[94].盛斌,《中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析》,[M].上海人民出版社,2002年11月第一版。
[95].盛斌,“国际贸易政策的政治经济学：理论与经验方法”,[J].《国际政治研究》,2006(2)：73-94。
[96].史智宇,《中国东盟自由贸易区贸易效应实证研究》,[D].上海：复旦大学博士学位论文,2004年。
[97].J.M.伍德里奇著,费剑平、林相森译,《计量经济学导论：现代观点》,[M].中国人民大学出版社,2003年3月第一版。
[98].邢方霞、李敏昌,“我国行业协会现状与发展的路径选择”,[J].《商场现代化》,2007(4)：360-361
[99].朱保华等译,Grossman, M. and Helpman, E.,著,《特殊利益政治学》,[M].上海财经大学出版社,2009年4月第一版。
[100].周建漳,“‘道德人’：计划经济行为为主体的制度假设分析”,[J].《中国社会科学季刊》(香港),夏季卷,总第15期：79-87。
[101].周天勇等著,《中国行政体制改革30年》,[M].格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2008年11月,第一版。
[102].周天勇,“大部制改革的三个关键问题”,[N].《中国经济时报》,2008年3月17日。
[103].《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要》,(http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/P020070912638588995806.pdf)。
[104].《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划的建议》,(http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/P020070912638594328528.pdf)。
[105].《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议货物贸易协议》,中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/dongmeng/dm_xieyijianjie.shtml)。
[106].《中国-智利自由贸易协定》,中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/chile/chile_xieyibeijing.shtml)。
[107].《中国-新西兰自由贸易协定》(2008年4月),中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/newzealand/newzealand_xiedinggaishu.shtml)。
[108].《中国-新加坡自由贸易协定》(2008年10月),中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/singapore/singapore_xiedinggaishu.shtml)。