低碳背景下电力系统规划与运营模式及决策方法研究
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摘要
电力系统实现一次能源向二次能源的转换以及电能的输配和使用,是国民生产中碳排放水平最高的部门之一。低碳经济发展的压力以及我国节能减排相关政策都会给电力行业的发展带来诸多挑战。作为电力系统中连接电力生产与电力使用的枢纽,电网企业以电网的规划投资、电力系统的运行以及电力供应为核心业务,在低碳发展的新的时代背景下,电网企业的规划投资、运行及经营核心业务将面临着多方面的挑战与风险。在我国电力工业低碳发展背景下,电网企业还需要发挥自身的枢纽作用,引导好电力系统的规划投资工作,维护好电力系统的环保经济调度工作,实现好电力系统整体节能减排目标,发展好低碳电力工业对低碳国民生产的支撑作用。这就需要有针对性地分析低碳发展对电力系统带来的风险与挑战,从而提出有效的解决方案。本文的研究从电网企业的视角出发,分析了低碳发展战略对我国电网企业核心业务的影响；围绕电网企业的三大核心业务,分别研究了低碳背景下电源电网协调规划投资决策模型及方法、低碳背景下电力系统环保经济调度决策模型及方法、低碳背景下电网企业经营策略；最后,构建了我国低碳电力系统可持续发展运行机制。
首先,从电网企业角度分析了低碳发展战略对我国电力系统的影响,包括对电力系统规划、调度及企业经营的影响。总的来看,对电力系统规划的影响突出表现在可再生能源无序投资,随着电网统一规划职能的弱化,电源电网规划决策缺乏协调的问题突出。对电力系统调度的影响则突出表现在具有间歇性和波动性特征的低碳电源大规模并网,系统调度的目标由过去的安全、经济调度转变为安全、环保、经济调度,同时对调度机构的决策响应能力提出了更高要求。对电网企业经营的影响突出表现在发挥电网枢纽作用,利用数据归集的优势,以对规划、调度和供电各环节的低碳贡献效果评估为核心,构建与电网公司三大核心业务相配套的低碳效果评估决策机制,持续优化企业经营策略、改善整个电力系统的碳排放水平,促进整个电力系统的低碳可持续发展。
其次,从电网企业的角度构建了低碳背景下电源电网两阶段协调规划投资模型。第一阶段模型为低碳背景下考虑可再生能源并网的发电容量投资组合优化模型,能够为政府部门提供“发电容量最优规划容量对照表”,能够确定不同可再生能源装机份额时其他常规电源的装机份额,为政府部门从总量上控制电源侧的装机规模提供决策依据；第二阶段模型为计及碳排放约束的低碳电网最优规划模型,通过碳排放量计算模型以及碳排放价格EGARCH预测模型将电源侧碳排放的约束进行量化处理,构建了综合考虑输电线路投资成本、输电线损成本、发电成本以及碳排放成本的投资成本最小目标函数,并通过模拟退火智能算法进行求解,通过政府部门的整合,最终形成低碳电源电网协调规划最优方案。
第三,从电网企业的角度构建了低碳背景下电力系统环保经济调度决策模型。构建了包含总燃料成本、污染物(C02、硫化物、氮化物)排放成本的系统调度目标函数,将输电线损的实际功率平衡和实际功率运行限制作为约束条件；构建变搜索半径差分进化算法对目标函数进行求解,通过变搜索半径的方法对差分进化算法进行全局寻优,从而避免了差分进化算法容易陷入局部最优陷阱的问题,实现全局最优。所构建的电力系统环保经济调度决策模型和方法能够为未来智能调度平台提供技术支持。
第四,从电网企业的角度研究了低碳背景下以低碳贡献效果评估为核心的企业低碳生产经营模式。作为连接发电环节和用电环节的枢纽,电力系统发电、调度和用电数据都在电网公司归集,本部分根据电网公司在电力系统低碳发展中的核心作用,结合电力系统规划、调度相关的指标,构建了低碳贡献效果综合评估指标体系；引入基于灰色三角白化权函数的综合评价方法对电力系统低碳贡献度进行评估,并提出了电网企业低碳生产经营改进措施。构建的以低碳贡献效果综合评价为核心的电网企业低碳经营动态、闭环且持续改进的低碳经营机制,能够为降低整个电力系统碳排放水平提供决策依据。
第五,要想构建一个低碳、高效的电力系统,不仅需要低碳背景下电力系统规划与运营的决策方法研究,从理论上进行创新并为各相关市场主体提供决策支持,还需要从制度层面研究与设计保障低碳背景下电源电网协调规划、低碳调度可持续发展的顶层设计。针对我国目前还处于低碳电力系统发展初级阶段的电情,构建了低碳电力系统可持续发展运行机制,主要包括我国低碳电力系统协调规划机制的顶层设计和环保经济调度机制的顶层设计。为我国可再生能源有序投资、低碳电源电网协调规划和电力系统的环保经济调度机制提供政策上的保障。
Electric power system plays an important role in transformation of primary energy to secondary energy and power transmission, distribution and use, which is one of the departments with the highest carbon emission level. Low-carbon economy and energy-saving policies bring power industry many challenges, and then the core businesses of power grid enterprises, such as power grid planning and investment, operation of power system and power supply, are faced with various challenges and risks. Under the context of low carbon development, power system should take its responsibilities, to guide the investment and planning of power system, to maintain the environmental and economic dispatching, to achieve the goal of energy-saving, and then to support low carbon development of national product. For this reason, we need to analysis the challenges and risks brought to power system by low carbon development, and propose effective solutions. Firstly, this paper analysed the influence of low carbon development strategy to the core businesses of power grid enterprise from the perspective of the power grid corporation; around the three core businesses, the generation and transmission coordinated planning and investment decision-making model, environmental and economic dispatching decision-making model and operating strategies for power grid corporation were researched respectively in the low-carbon context; finally, China's low-carbon power system sustainable development and operating mechanism was built.
Firstly, the influence of low carbon development strategy to the core businesses of power grid corporations from the perspective of the power grid corporation was analyzed, including power system planning, dispatching and operating. Overall, the impacts to planning outstand for the disorderly investment of renewable energy. As the weakening of unified power grid planning functions, generation and transmission planning isn't coordinated well. The impacts to the dispatching are mainly for the large-scale connection of low-carbon generation resource with the intermittent and volatility characteristics, the goals of power system dispatching transform from the security and economy to security, economy and environmental, and then it puts forward more requirements to the decision and responsiveness capacities of dispatching department. The impacts to the operating of power system are mainly the requirement of pivotal role. Taking advantage of data imputation, the operators can built the low-carbon impact assessment decision-making mechanism supporting the three core businesses of power grid corporations with the low-carbon impact assessment of planning, dispatching and supply as the core, so as to continuously optimize business strategy for the entire power system and promote low-carbon sustainable development.
Secondly, from the angle of the power grid enterprises construct a two-phase coordination planning investment model for power and grid under the background of low carbon. On first stage, the generation capacity investment portfolio optimization model considering renewable energy integration under low carbon, not only can provide comparison tables of generation capacity optimal planning for government departments, but also can identify installed share of other conventional power supply once the installed capacity of renewable energy changes, so it means the model can provide a decision-making basis about controlling installed scale in total amount on the supply side for the government departments. The model on second stage is about transmission grid optimal planning with constraints of carbon emissions. Through carbon emissions。 calculation and carbon price EGARCH prediction model, the model first gave a quantification process to carbon emission constraint and constructed an objective function to realize a minimum investment cost with comprehensive consideration of costs of transmission line investment, the grid loss, power generation and carbon emissions. Then the model utilized the intelligent simulated annealing algorithm to find solutions and through the integration of government departments, finally formed the optimal solution of low carbon power and grid coordinate planning.
Thirdly, from the view of the power grid enterprises, constructed an environmental protection and economic dispatching decision-making model in power system under the background of the low carbon. Scheduling objective function containing the total fuel cost and pollutant emissions (CO2, sulfide, nitride) cost, making the balance and operating limits of transmission line loss' real power as constraints. Furthermore, build a search radius difference evolution algorithm to find solutions of target function, and the global optimization solution can be found by changing search radius, which can avoid the problem that differential evolution algorithm is easy to trap into local optimum and achieve the global optimal. The environmental protection and economic dispatching decision-making model constructed above can provide technical supports for intelligent scheduling platform in the future.
Fourthly, low-carbon production and operation mode in enterprises which takes low carbon evaluation as the core was studied from the point of power grid enterprise. Data of power generation, dispatching and consumption is gathered in power grid enterprise. According to the core impact of grid enterprise, this part distinguishes the relative indicators concerning power system planning and dispatching by separately taking generation, transmission and distribution and consumption as the subject, and designs the comprehensive low-carbon contribution evaluation indicator system. A comprehensive evaluation method based on grey triangular whitenization weight function was included to assess low carbon contribution of power system, and improvement measures for low-carbon production and operation in power supply enterprises were proposed. The low-carbon operation mechanism of grid enterprise, of which low-carbon contribution evaluation is the core, is dynamic, close-loop and continuous improvement, capable of providing decision-making basis for lowing carbon emission level of the whole power system.
Fifthly, studies on decision-making methods of power system planning and operating, which innovate in theories to provide decision-making basis for relevant subjects, as well as the design of safeguard mechanism for coordinated planning of power supply and power grid are needed to build a power system of low carbon and high efficiency. Based on the fact that power system in China is still at the primary stage of low carbon development, a low carbon sustainable development and operation mechanism for power system is built, which includes the top level designs of power system's coordinative planning mechanism and environmental protection and economic dispatching mechanism. It could provide policy supports for the orderly investment of renewable energy, the low carbon coordinated planning of power supply and power grid and the environmental protection and economic dispatching mechanism.
首先,从电网企业角度分析了低碳发展战略对我国电力系统的影响,包括对电力系统规划、调度及企业经营的影响。总的来看,对电力系统规划的影响突出表现在可再生能源无序投资,随着电网统一规划职能的弱化,电源电网规划决策缺乏协调的问题突出。对电力系统调度的影响则突出表现在具有间歇性和波动性特征的低碳电源大规模并网,系统调度的目标由过去的安全、经济调度转变为安全、环保、经济调度,同时对调度机构的决策响应能力提出了更高要求。对电网企业经营的影响突出表现在发挥电网枢纽作用,利用数据归集的优势,以对规划、调度和供电各环节的低碳贡献效果评估为核心,构建与电网公司三大核心业务相配套的低碳效果评估决策机制,持续优化企业经营策略、改善整个电力系统的碳排放水平,促进整个电力系统的低碳可持续发展。
其次,从电网企业的角度构建了低碳背景下电源电网两阶段协调规划投资模型。第一阶段模型为低碳背景下考虑可再生能源并网的发电容量投资组合优化模型,能够为政府部门提供“发电容量最优规划容量对照表”,能够确定不同可再生能源装机份额时其他常规电源的装机份额,为政府部门从总量上控制电源侧的装机规模提供决策依据；第二阶段模型为计及碳排放约束的低碳电网最优规划模型,通过碳排放量计算模型以及碳排放价格EGARCH预测模型将电源侧碳排放的约束进行量化处理,构建了综合考虑输电线路投资成本、输电线损成本、发电成本以及碳排放成本的投资成本最小目标函数,并通过模拟退火智能算法进行求解,通过政府部门的整合,最终形成低碳电源电网协调规划最优方案。
第三,从电网企业的角度构建了低碳背景下电力系统环保经济调度决策模型。构建了包含总燃料成本、污染物(C02、硫化物、氮化物)排放成本的系统调度目标函数,将输电线损的实际功率平衡和实际功率运行限制作为约束条件；构建变搜索半径差分进化算法对目标函数进行求解,通过变搜索半径的方法对差分进化算法进行全局寻优,从而避免了差分进化算法容易陷入局部最优陷阱的问题,实现全局最优。所构建的电力系统环保经济调度决策模型和方法能够为未来智能调度平台提供技术支持。
第四,从电网企业的角度研究了低碳背景下以低碳贡献效果评估为核心的企业低碳生产经营模式。作为连接发电环节和用电环节的枢纽,电力系统发电、调度和用电数据都在电网公司归集,本部分根据电网公司在电力系统低碳发展中的核心作用,结合电力系统规划、调度相关的指标,构建了低碳贡献效果综合评估指标体系；引入基于灰色三角白化权函数的综合评价方法对电力系统低碳贡献度进行评估,并提出了电网企业低碳生产经营改进措施。构建的以低碳贡献效果综合评价为核心的电网企业低碳经营动态、闭环且持续改进的低碳经营机制,能够为降低整个电力系统碳排放水平提供决策依据。
第五,要想构建一个低碳、高效的电力系统,不仅需要低碳背景下电力系统规划与运营的决策方法研究,从理论上进行创新并为各相关市场主体提供决策支持,还需要从制度层面研究与设计保障低碳背景下电源电网协调规划、低碳调度可持续发展的顶层设计。针对我国目前还处于低碳电力系统发展初级阶段的电情,构建了低碳电力系统可持续发展运行机制,主要包括我国低碳电力系统协调规划机制的顶层设计和环保经济调度机制的顶层设计。为我国可再生能源有序投资、低碳电源电网协调规划和电力系统的环保经济调度机制提供政策上的保障。
Electric power system plays an important role in transformation of primary energy to secondary energy and power transmission, distribution and use, which is one of the departments with the highest carbon emission level. Low-carbon economy and energy-saving policies bring power industry many challenges, and then the core businesses of power grid enterprises, such as power grid planning and investment, operation of power system and power supply, are faced with various challenges and risks. Under the context of low carbon development, power system should take its responsibilities, to guide the investment and planning of power system, to maintain the environmental and economic dispatching, to achieve the goal of energy-saving, and then to support low carbon development of national product. For this reason, we need to analysis the challenges and risks brought to power system by low carbon development, and propose effective solutions. Firstly, this paper analysed the influence of low carbon development strategy to the core businesses of power grid enterprise from the perspective of the power grid corporation; around the three core businesses, the generation and transmission coordinated planning and investment decision-making model, environmental and economic dispatching decision-making model and operating strategies for power grid corporation were researched respectively in the low-carbon context; finally, China's low-carbon power system sustainable development and operating mechanism was built.
Firstly, the influence of low carbon development strategy to the core businesses of power grid corporations from the perspective of the power grid corporation was analyzed, including power system planning, dispatching and operating. Overall, the impacts to planning outstand for the disorderly investment of renewable energy. As the weakening of unified power grid planning functions, generation and transmission planning isn't coordinated well. The impacts to the dispatching are mainly for the large-scale connection of low-carbon generation resource with the intermittent and volatility characteristics, the goals of power system dispatching transform from the security and economy to security, economy and environmental, and then it puts forward more requirements to the decision and responsiveness capacities of dispatching department. The impacts to the operating of power system are mainly the requirement of pivotal role. Taking advantage of data imputation, the operators can built the low-carbon impact assessment decision-making mechanism supporting the three core businesses of power grid corporations with the low-carbon impact assessment of planning, dispatching and supply as the core, so as to continuously optimize business strategy for the entire power system and promote low-carbon sustainable development.
Secondly, from the angle of the power grid enterprises construct a two-phase coordination planning investment model for power and grid under the background of low carbon. On first stage, the generation capacity investment portfolio optimization model considering renewable energy integration under low carbon, not only can provide comparison tables of generation capacity optimal planning for government departments, but also can identify installed share of other conventional power supply once the installed capacity of renewable energy changes, so it means the model can provide a decision-making basis about controlling installed scale in total amount on the supply side for the government departments. The model on second stage is about transmission grid optimal planning with constraints of carbon emissions. Through carbon emissions。 calculation and carbon price EGARCH prediction model, the model first gave a quantification process to carbon emission constraint and constructed an objective function to realize a minimum investment cost with comprehensive consideration of costs of transmission line investment, the grid loss, power generation and carbon emissions. Then the model utilized the intelligent simulated annealing algorithm to find solutions and through the integration of government departments, finally formed the optimal solution of low carbon power and grid coordinate planning.
Thirdly, from the view of the power grid enterprises, constructed an environmental protection and economic dispatching decision-making model in power system under the background of the low carbon. Scheduling objective function containing the total fuel cost and pollutant emissions (CO2, sulfide, nitride) cost, making the balance and operating limits of transmission line loss' real power as constraints. Furthermore, build a search radius difference evolution algorithm to find solutions of target function, and the global optimization solution can be found by changing search radius, which can avoid the problem that differential evolution algorithm is easy to trap into local optimum and achieve the global optimal. The environmental protection and economic dispatching decision-making model constructed above can provide technical supports for intelligent scheduling platform in the future.
Fourthly, low-carbon production and operation mode in enterprises which takes low carbon evaluation as the core was studied from the point of power grid enterprise. Data of power generation, dispatching and consumption is gathered in power grid enterprise. According to the core impact of grid enterprise, this part distinguishes the relative indicators concerning power system planning and dispatching by separately taking generation, transmission and distribution and consumption as the subject, and designs the comprehensive low-carbon contribution evaluation indicator system. A comprehensive evaluation method based on grey triangular whitenization weight function was included to assess low carbon contribution of power system, and improvement measures for low-carbon production and operation in power supply enterprises were proposed. The low-carbon operation mechanism of grid enterprise, of which low-carbon contribution evaluation is the core, is dynamic, close-loop and continuous improvement, capable of providing decision-making basis for lowing carbon emission level of the whole power system.
Fifthly, studies on decision-making methods of power system planning and operating, which innovate in theories to provide decision-making basis for relevant subjects, as well as the design of safeguard mechanism for coordinated planning of power supply and power grid are needed to build a power system of low carbon and high efficiency. Based on the fact that power system in China is still at the primary stage of low carbon development, a low carbon sustainable development and operation mechanism for power system is built, which includes the top level designs of power system's coordinative planning mechanism and environmental protection and economic dispatching mechanism. It could provide policy supports for the orderly investment of renewable energy, the low carbon coordinated planning of power supply and power grid and the environmental protection and economic dispatching mechanism.
引文
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