区域土地利用变化与生态系统服务价值动态变化研究
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摘要
生态系统作为自然界生命支持系统,为人类生存和发展提供密不可分的产品和服务,即生态系统服务。然而随着经济的发展、人口的扩张,工业化和城市化进程不断促使人类以更大的强度进行土地开发利用,使得大部分自然生态系统转化为人工生态系统。土地利用变化及其引起的土地覆盖变化直接影响其承载的生态系统结构和功能,进而导致生态系统服务的变化,生态系统服务价值也逐渐成为衡量生态系统重要性和进行土地资源优化配置的主要指标。因此,探究土地利用变化与生态系统服务价值变化的动态互馈机制,对正确制定土地利用政策,优化土地利用方式和布局、维持生态系统服务的可持续性具有重要的意义。
当前生态系统服务内涵界定和分类较多,价值以静态评估,并侧重于对国家、省市等大中尺度的评价。而现实的需求更多偏重于县域小尺度区域内部复杂的生态系统服务动态变化机制的揭示,更需要动态评估模拟。本文在结合前人生态系统服务理论研究的基础上,更加清晰地界定了生态系统服务的内涵和分类。并以浙江省天台县为研究区域,结合区域特征,合理筛选九项生态系统服务价值评估指标。根据自然-经济-社会复合系统的动态变化过程,基于价值熵理论,重点从人们对生态系统服务价值的支付意愿方面考虑,充分结合功能性调整指数(生产力调整指数)和边际性调整指数(支付意愿指数和支付能力指数)的计算,建立基于不同时间序列的土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值动态评估模型,确定研究区2001年-2010年的单位面积生态系统服务动态价值系数表,评估了研究区近十年各生态系统服务价值,分析了各项生态系统服务价值变化过程。并应用相关性分析和通径分析方法,确定影响生态系统服务变化的直接影响因素和间接影响因素。主要研究结论如下：
1.界定了生态系统服务的内涵和分类。生态系统服务是指能够满足于人类需求并产生人类惠益,可直接或间接感知、享受、消费和利用的生态系统产品、过程或功能。主要体现为经济服务、生态服务和社会文化服务三种服务。
2.与全球、国家或省市等大尺度区域相比,小尺度区域土地变化对其驱动因子的响应更为敏感。对县域尺度而言,土地利用受经济、政策的驱动作用明显,年度间各类型土地利用面积的波动较大,几乎不存在单调现象。
3.对县域尺度,生态系统服务总价值和各单一类型价值均呈现“横S”波动变化,而非线性变化,并与人们支付意愿密切相关。天台县2001年-2010年生态系统服务总价值和各单一生态系统服务类型价值总量,均呈现先降低再增加再降低的“横S”型波动变化过程。十年间,生态系统服务总价值大小排序为生态价值>经济价值>社会文化价值,三者比例大致为6.5：1：0.5。并从人们支付意愿得出,生态系统服务价值越高,则人们对所需的生态系统服务的支付意愿越大,同时维持生态系统服务功能的成本也相应提高。
4.土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响受土地子系统间相互促进和制约的直接作用和间接作用综合影响,而非单纯的由土地面积的直接变化决定。并且间接作用比直接作用更为复杂,更能表现土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的变化影响。直接作用不能揭示的变化的规律,通过间接作用能够清晰地看到起内在变化的特征。
5.林地和湿地是生态系统服务价值变化的最主要的增进性决策变量,建设用地是最主要的限制性决策变量。土地利用变化对经济服务价值影响排序由大到小为：林地>园地>耕地>水域>未利用地>湿地>草地>建设用地,林地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性决策变量；土地利用变化对生态服务价值影响排序由大到小为：湿地>林地>水域>草地>耕地>未利用地>园地>建设用地,湿地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性决策变量；土地利用变化对社会文化服务价值影响排序由大到小为：林地>园地>草地>湿地>水域>耕地>未利用地>建设用地；林地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性决策变量；土地利用变化对生态系统服务总价值影响排序为：林地>草地>园地>耕地>湿地>水域>未利用地>建设用地；林地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性变量。在未来土地利用中要维持生态系统服务功能,需提高林地、草地、园地、耕地、湿地和水域的生态服务功能,并需要控制建设用地的规模,同时合理利用未利用土地,保持未利用土地朝着有利于提高生态系统服务功能的用地类型转变。
As the life support system, ecosystem is providing a range of products and services called ecosystem services (ES) for human well-beings. With the development of economics and expansion of population rapidly, industrialization and urbanization exerted a greater pressure on Land Use and Land Cover (LUCC), and many natural ecosystems have been converted to artificial ecosystems. LUCC has caused great change of ecosystem structure and ecosystem function, and then changes primary state of ES. And ecosystem services valuation (ESV) has also been a principal way of judging the importance of ecosystem and optimizing land resource allocation. So it is of significance for trade-off among land optimization, policy-making and sustainable development of ES, by means of exploring feedback mechanism between LUCC and ecosystem services change (ESC).
This paper gives an overview of academic studies and the valuation practices of ES, and clearly defines the concept of ES and its classification. We take Tiantai County in Zhejiang province of southeast China as a case study. Based on the theories of ecological compound system and value entropy, we fix nine ESV index and built dynamic ESV model at continuous time series of LUCC. Willing to pay (WTP) is mainly considered, productivity function improving index and marginal improving index (including willing to pay and power to pay) are also regarded. And then we make dynamic valuation coefficient table of ES per land use from the year 2001 to the year 2010, value the ecosystem services values for the corresponding years. At last, relativity analysis method and Path Analysis method are used to estimate the degree of direct & indirect influence on which Land use change exerts ESC.
The main results are as follows:
1. ES and their classification are clearly defined, Which refers to the products, processes and functions that can be perceived, enjoyed, consumed and utilized to satisfy human welfares, directly or indirectly. ES included three parts:economic services, ecological services and social-cultural services.
2. At the county scale, Land use change is drived more fiercely by economic and policy, and the trend of land use change is fluctuant, not monotonic. Moreover, Response came from driving forces is more sensitive for the LUCC at smaller scale.
3. Results show that the total values of ES present fluctuant trend, which is "down-up-down" from the year 2001 to the year 2010, so is the single value of ES. And the ratio of three ecosystem service values is approximately 6.5:1:0.5. Meantime we can conclude that the higher is the ecosystem service value, the higher is the cost of keeping ecosystem services.
4. LUCC has a complex effect on ESC, including direct effects and indirect effects, and the former ones are stronger than the latter ones. And ESC does not solely rely on the land use change.
5. For the economic services, the descending order of influence on which Land use change exerted ESC is as follows:forest land, garden land, farmland, water, non-use land, wet land, grass land, construction land, and forest land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. For the ecological services, the descending order of that is as follows:wet land, forest land, water, grass land, farmland, non-use land, garden land, construction land, and wet land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. For the social-cultural services, the descending order of that is as follows: forest land, garden land, grass land, wet land, water, farmland, non-use land, construction land, and forest land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. For the total ecosystem services, the descending order of that is as follows:forest land, grass land, garden land, farmland, wet land, water, non-use land, construction land, and forest land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. So keeping a appropriate proportion of all kinds of land use types is needed, in order to promote ecosystem service function values.
当前生态系统服务内涵界定和分类较多,价值以静态评估,并侧重于对国家、省市等大中尺度的评价。而现实的需求更多偏重于县域小尺度区域内部复杂的生态系统服务动态变化机制的揭示,更需要动态评估模拟。本文在结合前人生态系统服务理论研究的基础上,更加清晰地界定了生态系统服务的内涵和分类。并以浙江省天台县为研究区域,结合区域特征,合理筛选九项生态系统服务价值评估指标。根据自然-经济-社会复合系统的动态变化过程,基于价值熵理论,重点从人们对生态系统服务价值的支付意愿方面考虑,充分结合功能性调整指数(生产力调整指数)和边际性调整指数(支付意愿指数和支付能力指数)的计算,建立基于不同时间序列的土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值动态评估模型,确定研究区2001年-2010年的单位面积生态系统服务动态价值系数表,评估了研究区近十年各生态系统服务价值,分析了各项生态系统服务价值变化过程。并应用相关性分析和通径分析方法,确定影响生态系统服务变化的直接影响因素和间接影响因素。主要研究结论如下：
1.界定了生态系统服务的内涵和分类。生态系统服务是指能够满足于人类需求并产生人类惠益,可直接或间接感知、享受、消费和利用的生态系统产品、过程或功能。主要体现为经济服务、生态服务和社会文化服务三种服务。
2.与全球、国家或省市等大尺度区域相比,小尺度区域土地变化对其驱动因子的响应更为敏感。对县域尺度而言,土地利用受经济、政策的驱动作用明显,年度间各类型土地利用面积的波动较大,几乎不存在单调现象。
3.对县域尺度,生态系统服务总价值和各单一类型价值均呈现“横S”波动变化,而非线性变化,并与人们支付意愿密切相关。天台县2001年-2010年生态系统服务总价值和各单一生态系统服务类型价值总量,均呈现先降低再增加再降低的“横S”型波动变化过程。十年间,生态系统服务总价值大小排序为生态价值>经济价值>社会文化价值,三者比例大致为6.5：1：0.5。并从人们支付意愿得出,生态系统服务价值越高,则人们对所需的生态系统服务的支付意愿越大,同时维持生态系统服务功能的成本也相应提高。
4.土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响受土地子系统间相互促进和制约的直接作用和间接作用综合影响,而非单纯的由土地面积的直接变化决定。并且间接作用比直接作用更为复杂,更能表现土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的变化影响。直接作用不能揭示的变化的规律,通过间接作用能够清晰地看到起内在变化的特征。
5.林地和湿地是生态系统服务价值变化的最主要的增进性决策变量,建设用地是最主要的限制性决策变量。土地利用变化对经济服务价值影响排序由大到小为：林地>园地>耕地>水域>未利用地>湿地>草地>建设用地,林地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性决策变量；土地利用变化对生态服务价值影响排序由大到小为：湿地>林地>水域>草地>耕地>未利用地>园地>建设用地,湿地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性决策变量；土地利用变化对社会文化服务价值影响排序由大到小为：林地>园地>草地>湿地>水域>耕地>未利用地>建设用地；林地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性决策变量；土地利用变化对生态系统服务总价值影响排序为：林地>草地>园地>耕地>湿地>水域>未利用地>建设用地；林地为主要增进性决策变量,建设用地为主要限制性变量。在未来土地利用中要维持生态系统服务功能,需提高林地、草地、园地、耕地、湿地和水域的生态服务功能,并需要控制建设用地的规模,同时合理利用未利用土地,保持未利用土地朝着有利于提高生态系统服务功能的用地类型转变。
As the life support system, ecosystem is providing a range of products and services called ecosystem services (ES) for human well-beings. With the development of economics and expansion of population rapidly, industrialization and urbanization exerted a greater pressure on Land Use and Land Cover (LUCC), and many natural ecosystems have been converted to artificial ecosystems. LUCC has caused great change of ecosystem structure and ecosystem function, and then changes primary state of ES. And ecosystem services valuation (ESV) has also been a principal way of judging the importance of ecosystem and optimizing land resource allocation. So it is of significance for trade-off among land optimization, policy-making and sustainable development of ES, by means of exploring feedback mechanism between LUCC and ecosystem services change (ESC).
This paper gives an overview of academic studies and the valuation practices of ES, and clearly defines the concept of ES and its classification. We take Tiantai County in Zhejiang province of southeast China as a case study. Based on the theories of ecological compound system and value entropy, we fix nine ESV index and built dynamic ESV model at continuous time series of LUCC. Willing to pay (WTP) is mainly considered, productivity function improving index and marginal improving index (including willing to pay and power to pay) are also regarded. And then we make dynamic valuation coefficient table of ES per land use from the year 2001 to the year 2010, value the ecosystem services values for the corresponding years. At last, relativity analysis method and Path Analysis method are used to estimate the degree of direct & indirect influence on which Land use change exerts ESC.
The main results are as follows:
1. ES and their classification are clearly defined, Which refers to the products, processes and functions that can be perceived, enjoyed, consumed and utilized to satisfy human welfares, directly or indirectly. ES included three parts:economic services, ecological services and social-cultural services.
2. At the county scale, Land use change is drived more fiercely by economic and policy, and the trend of land use change is fluctuant, not monotonic. Moreover, Response came from driving forces is more sensitive for the LUCC at smaller scale.
3. Results show that the total values of ES present fluctuant trend, which is "down-up-down" from the year 2001 to the year 2010, so is the single value of ES. And the ratio of three ecosystem service values is approximately 6.5:1:0.5. Meantime we can conclude that the higher is the ecosystem service value, the higher is the cost of keeping ecosystem services.
4. LUCC has a complex effect on ESC, including direct effects and indirect effects, and the former ones are stronger than the latter ones. And ESC does not solely rely on the land use change.
5. For the economic services, the descending order of influence on which Land use change exerted ESC is as follows:forest land, garden land, farmland, water, non-use land, wet land, grass land, construction land, and forest land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. For the ecological services, the descending order of that is as follows:wet land, forest land, water, grass land, farmland, non-use land, garden land, construction land, and wet land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. For the social-cultural services, the descending order of that is as follows: forest land, garden land, grass land, wet land, water, farmland, non-use land, construction land, and forest land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. For the total ecosystem services, the descending order of that is as follows:forest land, grass land, garden land, farmland, wet land, water, non-use land, construction land, and forest land is the dominant impelling variable, the construction land is the main restricting variable. So keeping a appropriate proportion of all kinds of land use types is needed, in order to promote ecosystem service function values.
引文
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