中国经济后高速增长阶段研究
|
摘要
自1978年实施改革开放国策以来到2007年,我国经济已经持续高速增长了29年,而且年均增长率达到了9.9%以上。如果2008年我国的经济增长率不低于10%,我国这30年的平均增长率达到9.9%以上。这就刷新了日本在二次大战以后持续29年增长率在9%以上的世界最高纪录。2005年曾掀起一轮关于我国经济冷热的热烈争论,而当前经济已经出现过热趋势,在CPI持续高企的背景下,国内外乐观派和悲观派学者对于2008年北京奥运会之后的我国经济冷热更是展开了热烈的争论。我们有必要撇开经济短期的冷热之争,准确判断我国经济的长期增长趋势,认清我国经济增长所处的阶段,为正确判断宏观经济走势和制定宏观经济政策提供客观的依据。
本文首先对国内外的经济增长阶段理论和思想作了综述,社会主义学者和西方经济学家通过对各国经济发展史的经验实证考察,从不同的研究视角对经济增长的阶段规律进行了丰富的归纳和总结。尽管这些经济增长阶段理论的划分标准不一定适合我国国情,但是掌握经济增长阶段思想和理论对于认清我国经济发展规律具有重要借鉴意义。
论文进一步对有关我国的经济增长阶段研究进行评介,从经济周期波动特点的角度对我国历年经济增长阶段性特征进行分析。我国具有国土辽阔“大国”的背景特点,文中在分析我国经济发展特殊性的基础上,对我国即将进入的经济增长阶段进行判断,提出我国经济后高速增长阶段的概念,其包含两层含义,一是指这一增长阶段是在持续高速增长29年之后所将进入的一个增长阶段,是高速增长阶段的一个后续增长阶段;二是这一增长阶段也是一个高速增长的阶段。论文接下来通过理论联系我国的实际,对我国进入经济后高速增长阶段的可能性和维持经济后高速增长阶段的动力进行分析,然后通过对我国潜在产出增长率的预测对我国经济后高速增长阶段的可能性进行了客观验证。
首先从国际竞争的视角对我国进入后高速增长阶段的可能性进行了分析,布雷兹斯—克鲁格曼—齐登的蛙跳模型,揭示一国经济增长离不开与其他国家的联系,一国的经济增长就是在国与国竞争,相互赶超相互牵制下进行着的。后发国家往往能够“赶超”先发国家,而先发国家的领导地位则可能被“锁定”,因此就形成了兴衰交替的世界经济发展历史。这体现在经济总量增长率上,就表现出你高我低或者我高你低的交替起伏现象,形成了国家之间经济增长阶段交相辉映的发展历史。在世界经济发展史上就有美国赶超英国、日本追赶美国和亚洲“四小龙”追赶西欧国家等几次后发国家“赶超”先发国家成功先例。改革开放政策启动了我国的赶超历程,但是这一个赶超历程远未结束,我国进入后高速增长阶段是国家间竞争与我国和平崛起的必然要求。
其次,从区域发展的视角对我国维持经济后高速增长阶段的动力进行分析。经济增长极理论揭示采用增长极模式对于区域以至整个经济体经济发展的作用。文中对经济增长极的含义、作用、类型以及成功实践作了介绍,而后对其模型化并对模型进行分析和求解,验证经济增长极的重要启示。我国区域非均衡发展战略是经济增长极理论在我国的具体实践,东部沿海地区成功开发和发展就得益于经济增长极理论的实践。我国区域工业化水平和所处阶段存在很大差异,这是我国维持后高速增长阶段动力所在。我国的西部大开发、振兴东北老工业基地和中部崛起战略的实施,加快促进了我国新经济增长极的培育,这些新经济增长极的培育是我国维持后高速增长阶段的动力保证。
再次,通过实证测算对我国经济后高速增长阶段的可能性进行验证。尽管在短期中,实际的经济增长总是围绕一个特定趋势上下波动,表现为经济波动,也就是经济的冷热。但是在长期中,任何一个国家的经济都存在着一个特定的增长路径或增长趋势。我们可以通过对我国潜在产出的测度并预测以后一个阶段的潜在产出和潜在产出增长率,对我国经济后高速增长阶段进行可能性实证。文中介绍经济潜在产出的理论及方法,应用HP滤波法和生产函数法对我国潜在产出与潜在经济增长率进行实证测算,进一步应用ARIMA模型对我国未来潜在产出与潜在经济增长率进行预测,预测结果更客观地验证了我国经济进入和维持高速增长阶段的可能性。
本文的最后部分对论文的观点、论据、结论进行总结,并给出我国经济后高速增长阶段的相关政策建议,指出论文研究所存在的有待完善之处,对以后可以继续研究的思路和方向进行展望。
总之,我国进入和维持后高速增长阶段有着理论和现实的依据。我国特殊的国情和“大国”背景,决定劳动力、资本和技术能够在区域间交叉移动,繁荣在地区间渐进渗透、辐射,在较长一段时期内,我国的经济增长点将不只限于某一个,而是多个,从而形成增长点多极化、多点释放“能量”的经济格局,形成“东方不亮西方亮”此起彼伏的发展格局,不会出现因部分地区产出下降而导致经济停滞的现象,在持续高速增长29年之后还将进入一个长期的后高速增长阶段。
Our country's economy have got a rapid growth at a rate over 9.9 per cent for 29 years since the reform and opening up policy carried into cxecution from 1978 to 2007. If the economic growth rate not less than 10% in 2008, we will have a 30 years' economic rapid growth at a rate of more than 9.9 per cent, which will update the world's highest record created by Japan whose 29 years durative rapid growth at more than 9 percent after World War II. An active debate on the cold & hot economy was set off in China in 2005. Under the background of existing economy trends to overheating and the CPI keep increasing, a hot debate has been held by the scholars with optimistic opinions and the scholars with pessimistic opinions came from inland and overseas on economic hot & cold after 2008 Beijing Olympic Games in China. It is necessary to put aside the debate of the short-term economic cold or hot, and get an accurate judgement of China's long-term economic growth trend, understand China's current economic growth stage, then try to provide an objective basis for the correct judgement of macroeconomic trends and the formulation of macroeconomic policies.
This dissertation summarized the economic growth stage theory and thought come from domestic and abroad. Over the empirical research on several national economic developmental practices, socialism scholars and Western economists have done a rich conclusion and summary on the economic growth stage from different perspectives. Although these partition standards of economic growth stage maybe not necessarily fit for China's status, the research on economic growth stage theory and ideas have an important reference to recognize and understand China's economic growth stage.
This dissertation have done a further evaluation on the stage of China's economic growth stage, and analyses the characteristics of annual economic increase stage from an perspective of fluctuations in the economic cycle. From the vast land of China's 'big nation' in the context of economic development on the basis of uniqueness of China's economic growth, to judge the economic increase stage into which our country is about to enter, proposed the concept of our country's post-stage rapid growth which contains two meanings, first, that this will be a new stage in the continued growth after a 29 years durative increase at high-speed, and the second is the growth stage is also a high-growth stage as well. Through the theory related to our country's practice, the dissertation analyses of the probability of maintaining high-speed economic growth stage and the dynamic mechanism of keeping the post-stage rapid growth, and then through the forecast of China's potential output growth rate the dissertation give an objectively verification on the possibility of China's economy post-stage rapid growth.
Firstly, analysis the necessity of China's entering the stage of post-stage rapid growth, Brezis-Krugman-Tsiddon leapfrogging model reveals that one country's economic growth has essential linkages with other countries & one State economic growth is in the state-to-state competition and mutual catching up with each other under the constraint. Post-developmental countries are able to 'catching up' the fore-developmental countries, while the leadership position may be 'lock in', and therefore form the alternative development history between the rising and falling. If it is revealed as gross economic increase, that shall be the phenomenon of alternative between my high you low and you high my low, which formed the cross development history of different economic increase stage between different countries. There are precedent successful examples such as the United States over-take the United Kingdom, Japan chase the United States and Asia's 'Four Little Dragons' catch up with Western European countries. The reform and opening up policy launched China's chasing journey, while the journey is far from the ending. China's entering into the post-stage rapid growth and the maintenance of the stage is the inevitable requirement of the competition between countries and China's peaceful rise.
Secondly, analyses the maintaining motive factors of China's post-stage rapid growth from the perspective of the regional development. Economic growth pole theory reveals the effect of a growth pole model take in the regional economy and the economy as a whole. The meaning & effect & type & successful examples of the economic growth pole have been introduced in this dissertation, which were made to models, and then analyses & solute the models to verify the economic development pole enlightenment.
China's regional non-balanced development strategy is the economic growth pole theory applied to China's concrete practice, the rapid development of the eastern coastal areas got benefit from economic growth pole theory of inspiration. There is a big different between China's region industrialization in the region and the level of the stage, which is the power of the post-stage rapid growth of China. The strategy implementation of Large-scale development of China's western region & revitalizing old industrial bases in northeast & central China growing up speed up the nurture of China's new economic growth pole which is the power of maintaining the post-stage rapid growth of China.
In addition, the possibility of the post-stage rapid growth of China was verified through empirical estimation. Although in the short term, the actual economic growth always fluctuate around it's trend, showed fluctuations in the economy, which is the economy hot and cold, while in the long term, there is a specific growth path or growth trend in any of a country's economy. We can verify the possibility of post-stage rapid growth through measure and predict our country's potential output & potential output growth rate in a subsequent stage. The economic potential output theory and methodology were introduced in this dissertation, and the HP filter method & production function approach were applied to calculate China's potential output & potential output growth rate, and AR1MA model was further applied to forecast our country's potential output in the future, which objectively verified the possibility of our country's entering and maintaining high-speed increase stage.
The views, arguments, conclusions were summarized in the last part of this dissertation, relevant policy recommendations on maintaining economic post-stage rapid growth were provided as well. Pointing out the imperfect in this dissertation will prospect the future thoughts and directions in research.
Generally, there is a theoretical and practical basis for China's entering into and maintaining post-high-speed growth stage. Labour & Capital & Technology can be across moved between different regions under China's special status and 'big nation' background, and the gradual infiltration and radiation of prosperity will take among regions. In a longer period, China's economic growth will be set not only a particular one but many, which forming a economic structure of multi-polar growth point and multi-point release of 'energy' and forming 'when it is dark in the east, it is bright in the west' development pattern at rise one after another. There will be a post-stage rapid growth stage after a durative 29 years high-speed increases none economic stagnation phenomenon resulted from output decline in some areas.
本文首先对国内外的经济增长阶段理论和思想作了综述,社会主义学者和西方经济学家通过对各国经济发展史的经验实证考察,从不同的研究视角对经济增长的阶段规律进行了丰富的归纳和总结。尽管这些经济增长阶段理论的划分标准不一定适合我国国情,但是掌握经济增长阶段思想和理论对于认清我国经济发展规律具有重要借鉴意义。
论文进一步对有关我国的经济增长阶段研究进行评介,从经济周期波动特点的角度对我国历年经济增长阶段性特征进行分析。我国具有国土辽阔“大国”的背景特点,文中在分析我国经济发展特殊性的基础上,对我国即将进入的经济增长阶段进行判断,提出我国经济后高速增长阶段的概念,其包含两层含义,一是指这一增长阶段是在持续高速增长29年之后所将进入的一个增长阶段,是高速增长阶段的一个后续增长阶段;二是这一增长阶段也是一个高速增长的阶段。论文接下来通过理论联系我国的实际,对我国进入经济后高速增长阶段的可能性和维持经济后高速增长阶段的动力进行分析,然后通过对我国潜在产出增长率的预测对我国经济后高速增长阶段的可能性进行了客观验证。
首先从国际竞争的视角对我国进入后高速增长阶段的可能性进行了分析,布雷兹斯—克鲁格曼—齐登的蛙跳模型,揭示一国经济增长离不开与其他国家的联系,一国的经济增长就是在国与国竞争,相互赶超相互牵制下进行着的。后发国家往往能够“赶超”先发国家,而先发国家的领导地位则可能被“锁定”,因此就形成了兴衰交替的世界经济发展历史。这体现在经济总量增长率上,就表现出你高我低或者我高你低的交替起伏现象,形成了国家之间经济增长阶段交相辉映的发展历史。在世界经济发展史上就有美国赶超英国、日本追赶美国和亚洲“四小龙”追赶西欧国家等几次后发国家“赶超”先发国家成功先例。改革开放政策启动了我国的赶超历程,但是这一个赶超历程远未结束,我国进入后高速增长阶段是国家间竞争与我国和平崛起的必然要求。
其次,从区域发展的视角对我国维持经济后高速增长阶段的动力进行分析。经济增长极理论揭示采用增长极模式对于区域以至整个经济体经济发展的作用。文中对经济增长极的含义、作用、类型以及成功实践作了介绍,而后对其模型化并对模型进行分析和求解,验证经济增长极的重要启示。我国区域非均衡发展战略是经济增长极理论在我国的具体实践,东部沿海地区成功开发和发展就得益于经济增长极理论的实践。我国区域工业化水平和所处阶段存在很大差异,这是我国维持后高速增长阶段动力所在。我国的西部大开发、振兴东北老工业基地和中部崛起战略的实施,加快促进了我国新经济增长极的培育,这些新经济增长极的培育是我国维持后高速增长阶段的动力保证。
再次,通过实证测算对我国经济后高速增长阶段的可能性进行验证。尽管在短期中,实际的经济增长总是围绕一个特定趋势上下波动,表现为经济波动,也就是经济的冷热。但是在长期中,任何一个国家的经济都存在着一个特定的增长路径或增长趋势。我们可以通过对我国潜在产出的测度并预测以后一个阶段的潜在产出和潜在产出增长率,对我国经济后高速增长阶段进行可能性实证。文中介绍经济潜在产出的理论及方法,应用HP滤波法和生产函数法对我国潜在产出与潜在经济增长率进行实证测算,进一步应用ARIMA模型对我国未来潜在产出与潜在经济增长率进行预测,预测结果更客观地验证了我国经济进入和维持高速增长阶段的可能性。
本文的最后部分对论文的观点、论据、结论进行总结,并给出我国经济后高速增长阶段的相关政策建议,指出论文研究所存在的有待完善之处,对以后可以继续研究的思路和方向进行展望。
总之,我国进入和维持后高速增长阶段有着理论和现实的依据。我国特殊的国情和“大国”背景,决定劳动力、资本和技术能够在区域间交叉移动,繁荣在地区间渐进渗透、辐射,在较长一段时期内,我国的经济增长点将不只限于某一个,而是多个,从而形成增长点多极化、多点释放“能量”的经济格局,形成“东方不亮西方亮”此起彼伏的发展格局,不会出现因部分地区产出下降而导致经济停滞的现象,在持续高速增长29年之后还将进入一个长期的后高速增长阶段。
Our country's economy have got a rapid growth at a rate over 9.9 per cent for 29 years since the reform and opening up policy carried into cxecution from 1978 to 2007. If the economic growth rate not less than 10% in 2008, we will have a 30 years' economic rapid growth at a rate of more than 9.9 per cent, which will update the world's highest record created by Japan whose 29 years durative rapid growth at more than 9 percent after World War II. An active debate on the cold & hot economy was set off in China in 2005. Under the background of existing economy trends to overheating and the CPI keep increasing, a hot debate has been held by the scholars with optimistic opinions and the scholars with pessimistic opinions came from inland and overseas on economic hot & cold after 2008 Beijing Olympic Games in China. It is necessary to put aside the debate of the short-term economic cold or hot, and get an accurate judgement of China's long-term economic growth trend, understand China's current economic growth stage, then try to provide an objective basis for the correct judgement of macroeconomic trends and the formulation of macroeconomic policies.
This dissertation summarized the economic growth stage theory and thought come from domestic and abroad. Over the empirical research on several national economic developmental practices, socialism scholars and Western economists have done a rich conclusion and summary on the economic growth stage from different perspectives. Although these partition standards of economic growth stage maybe not necessarily fit for China's status, the research on economic growth stage theory and ideas have an important reference to recognize and understand China's economic growth stage.
This dissertation have done a further evaluation on the stage of China's economic growth stage, and analyses the characteristics of annual economic increase stage from an perspective of fluctuations in the economic cycle. From the vast land of China's 'big nation' in the context of economic development on the basis of uniqueness of China's economic growth, to judge the economic increase stage into which our country is about to enter, proposed the concept of our country's post-stage rapid growth which contains two meanings, first, that this will be a new stage in the continued growth after a 29 years durative increase at high-speed, and the second is the growth stage is also a high-growth stage as well. Through the theory related to our country's practice, the dissertation analyses of the probability of maintaining high-speed economic growth stage and the dynamic mechanism of keeping the post-stage rapid growth, and then through the forecast of China's potential output growth rate the dissertation give an objectively verification on the possibility of China's economy post-stage rapid growth.
Firstly, analysis the necessity of China's entering the stage of post-stage rapid growth, Brezis-Krugman-Tsiddon leapfrogging model reveals that one country's economic growth has essential linkages with other countries & one State economic growth is in the state-to-state competition and mutual catching up with each other under the constraint. Post-developmental countries are able to 'catching up' the fore-developmental countries, while the leadership position may be 'lock in', and therefore form the alternative development history between the rising and falling. If it is revealed as gross economic increase, that shall be the phenomenon of alternative between my high you low and you high my low, which formed the cross development history of different economic increase stage between different countries. There are precedent successful examples such as the United States over-take the United Kingdom, Japan chase the United States and Asia's 'Four Little Dragons' catch up with Western European countries. The reform and opening up policy launched China's chasing journey, while the journey is far from the ending. China's entering into the post-stage rapid growth and the maintenance of the stage is the inevitable requirement of the competition between countries and China's peaceful rise.
Secondly, analyses the maintaining motive factors of China's post-stage rapid growth from the perspective of the regional development. Economic growth pole theory reveals the effect of a growth pole model take in the regional economy and the economy as a whole. The meaning & effect & type & successful examples of the economic growth pole have been introduced in this dissertation, which were made to models, and then analyses & solute the models to verify the economic development pole enlightenment.
China's regional non-balanced development strategy is the economic growth pole theory applied to China's concrete practice, the rapid development of the eastern coastal areas got benefit from economic growth pole theory of inspiration. There is a big different between China's region industrialization in the region and the level of the stage, which is the power of the post-stage rapid growth of China. The strategy implementation of Large-scale development of China's western region & revitalizing old industrial bases in northeast & central China growing up speed up the nurture of China's new economic growth pole which is the power of maintaining the post-stage rapid growth of China.
In addition, the possibility of the post-stage rapid growth of China was verified through empirical estimation. Although in the short term, the actual economic growth always fluctuate around it's trend, showed fluctuations in the economy, which is the economy hot and cold, while in the long term, there is a specific growth path or growth trend in any of a country's economy. We can verify the possibility of post-stage rapid growth through measure and predict our country's potential output & potential output growth rate in a subsequent stage. The economic potential output theory and methodology were introduced in this dissertation, and the HP filter method & production function approach were applied to calculate China's potential output & potential output growth rate, and AR1MA model was further applied to forecast our country's potential output in the future, which objectively verified the possibility of our country's entering and maintaining high-speed increase stage.
The views, arguments, conclusions were summarized in the last part of this dissertation, relevant policy recommendations on maintaining economic post-stage rapid growth were provided as well. Pointing out the imperfect in this dissertation will prospect the future thoughts and directions in research.
Generally, there is a theoretical and practical basis for China's entering into and maintaining post-high-speed growth stage. Labour & Capital & Technology can be across moved between different regions under China's special status and 'big nation' background, and the gradual infiltration and radiation of prosperity will take among regions. In a longer period, China's economic growth will be set not only a particular one but many, which forming a economic structure of multi-polar growth point and multi-point release of 'energy' and forming 'when it is dark in the east, it is bright in the west' development pattern at rise one after another. There will be a post-stage rapid growth stage after a durative 29 years high-speed increases none economic stagnation phenomenon resulted from output decline in some areas.
引文
[1] Adams C, D Coe. A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States[J].IMF Staff Papers, 1990,(2):232-293.
[2] Akamatsu, K. A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries[J].The Developing Economies, 1962,(1):3—25.
[3] Apel M, P Jansson. System Estimates of Potential Output and the NAIRU[M]. Economics Department, Sveriges Riks bank, 1997.
[4] Arrow, Kenneth. J. The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1962,29:155-173.
[5] Barro.R.J and Xavier Sala.I.Martin.Economic Growth[M].Inc:Mcgrow-Hill,1995.
[6] Baxter M, King R.G. Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series [M].Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge (MA),1995.
[7] Beverage, B. S. and Nelson, C, 1981. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics 7, 151-174.
[8] Black, F., 1987. Business cycle and equilibrium, Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.
[9] Brezis, E., Krugman , P., Tsiddon, D., "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadship". American Economic Review, Dec, 1993.
[10]Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C, 1946. Measuring business cycles, New York: NBER.
[11]Daniel, E. S., 1993. Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look, Economic Inquiry, Vol.XXXI.
[12]Dawson, J. W. and Stephenson, E. F., 1997. The link between volatility and growth: evidence form the states, Economic Letters, 55: 365-369.
[13]Discussion Paper in In-ternational Investment and Business Studies[C].University of Reading, 1990, (139):24.
[14]Dumais, Ellison and Glaeser. Geographic concentration as a dynamic process, NBER working paper, 1997,No.6270.
[15]E Nelson, K. Nikolov. UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement[M]. Working Paper Bank of England,2001.
[16]Elise S Brezis, P R Krugman, Daniel Tsiddon. Leapfrogging in International Competition: A theory of Cycle in National Technological Leadership [J]. The American Economic Review, 83(5).
[17]Enders, W., 1995. Applied econometric time series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
[18]Engle, R. F., 1982. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of the United Kingdom inflation, Econometrics, 50.
[19]Fatas, A., 1998. Does EMU need a fiscal federation?, Economic Policy, 26, 165-203.
[20]Filardo, A. J., 1994. Business cycle stages and their transitional dynamics, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299-308.
[21] Frederic S. Mishkin, Fall 1995. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp3-10.
[22] Friedman, M. and Schwartz, A. J., 1963. A monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
[23]Friedman, M. and Schwartz, A. J., 1963. Money and business cycle, Review of Economics and Statistics, 32-64.
[24]Gali, J., 1994. Government size and macroeconomic stability, European Economic Review, 38,117-132.
[25] Gilbert A. A Note on the Incidence of Development in the Vicinity of a Growth Centre. Regional Studies, 1975.
[26]Giorno C. P, Richardson D. Estimating Potential Output Gap and Structrual Budget Balances[M]. Economics Department, Working Paper, 1995.
[27] Granger, C. W. J., 1969. Investigative causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrics, 37, 24-36.
[28]Hamilton J. D. Time Series Analysis[M]. Princeton University Press, 1994.
[29]Hamilton, J. D., 1989. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle, Econometrics, 57, 357-384.
[30]Hansen, A. H., 1941. Fiscal policy and business cycles, New York: W. W. Norton and Company.
[31] Harvey. A. Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1989.
[32]Hess, G. D. and Iwata, S., 1997. Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth, Journal of Monetary Economics 40,535-554.
[33]Hodrick, R. J. and Prescott, E. C, 1980. Post-war U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, Working Paper, Carnegie University.
[34]J.H.Thompson. Some Theoretical consideration for manufacturing Geography, Economic Geography,1966,vol,3:127-145.
[35]Jorg Scheibe. The Chinese Output Gap during the Reform Period 1978-2002[M]. Department of Economics Discussion Paper,University of Oxford,2003.
[36] Kim, C. J. and C. R. Nelson, 1999. Has the U.S. economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on a Markov-switching model of business cycle, Review of Economics and Statistics 81(4), 608-616.
[37] King, R. G. and Plosser, C. I., 1984. Money, credit and prices in a real business cycle, American Economic Review, 74, 363-380.
[38]Klmi enko M· "Competition, matching, and geographical clustering at early stages of the industry life cycle", Journal of Economics and Business, 2004, vol·56, issue 3, pp·177-195·
[39]Kuttner, K. and Posen. A. S., 2001. The Great Recession: lessons for macroeconomic policy from Japan. Brooking Papers of Economic Activities, 2, 93-160.
[40] Lawrence, J. C. and Terry J. F., 1999. The band pass filter, NBER Working Paper 7257.
[41]Long, J. and Plosser, C, 1983. Real business cycles, Journal of Political Economy 91, pp. 39-69.
[42] Lucas, R. E., 1975. An equilibrium model of business cycle, Journal of Political Economy 83, pp. 1113-1144.
[43]Lucas, R. E., 1981. Studies in Business Cycle Theory, Oxford: Basic Blackwell.
[44] M.J.Taylor. Organizational growth, spatial interaction and location decision-making, Regional Studies, 1975,9:313-323.
[45] Martin, P. and C. A. Rogers, 2000. Long-term and short-term economic instability, European Economic Review 44, 359-381.
[46]McConnell, M. M. and G. Perez-Quiros, 2000. Output fluctuations in the United States: What has changed since the early 1980's? American Economic Review 90 (5), 1464-1476.
[47] Mills, T. C. and N. F. R. Crafts, 2000. After the Golden Age: A long run perspective on growth rates that speeded up, slowed down and still differ, Manchester School 68, 68-91.
[48]Mills,T.C.and P.Wang,2000.Searching for the sources of stabilization in output growth rates:Evidence from the G-7 Economies,Research paper no.00/7,Department of Economics,Loughborough University.
[49]Okun,A.M.,1962,Potential GNP:Its Measurement and Significance,Proceedings of the Business and Economics Session,American Statistical Association,98-104.
[50]Plosser,C.I.,1989.Understanding real business cycles,Journal of Economic Perspectives 3,51-77.
[51]Porter,M·E·"Competitive Advantage:Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance",New York:The Free Press,1985.
[52]Ramsey,R.and Ramsey,V.A.,1995.Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth,American Economic Review,85,1138-1151.
[53]Romer,C.D.,1999.Changes in business cycles:evidence and explanations,NBER Working paper 6948.
[54]S.Ellis& C.Rogers.Local Economic Development as Game:Were caught in a Trap,I cant' walk out[R].The Regional Research Institute Working Paper,West Virginia University,prepared for the Southern Regional Science Association Meeting,1997.
[55]Siebert H.Regional economic growth:theory and policy[M].International textbook company,1969.
[56]Sims,C.A.,1982.Policy analysis with econometric models,Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1,107-152.
[57]Steven Weber,1997.The end of the business cycle?,Foreign Affairs,July/August.
[58]Stock,J.and Watson,M.,1998.Business cycle fluctuations in U.S.macroeconomic time series,NBER working paper 6528.
[59]Tong,H.,1990.Nonlinear Time Series Analysis:A dynamical system approach,New York:Oxford University Press.
[60]Wells,L.T."Third World Multinationals The Rise of Foreign Direct Investment from Developing Countries",Cambridge,Mass.:MIT Press,1983.
[61](美)W.W.罗斯托(W.W.Rostow),郭熙保,王松茂译.经济增长的阶段:非共产党宣言[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2001
[62](美)查尔斯·I.琼斯(CharlesI.Jones)著,舒元等译.经济增长导论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2002
[63](美)库兹涅茨著,戴睿,易诚译.现代经济增长:速度、结构与扩展[M].北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989
[64](美)理查德·R·纳尔森(Richard R.Nelson)著,汤光华等译.经济增长的源泉[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2001
[65](美)刘易斯(Lewis,W.A.),梁小民译.增长与波动[M].北京:华夏出版社,1987
[66](美)罗伯特 J.巴罗,哈维尔·萨拉伊马丁著;何晖,刘明兴译.经济增长[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2000
[67](美)罗伯特.J.巴罗,方松英译.现代经济周期理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1997
[68](美)罗伯特·J·巴罗著,李剑译经济增长的决定因素:跨国经验研究[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004
[69](美)罗伯特·M·索洛,史清琪等选译.经济增长因素分析[M].北京:商务印书馆,1991
[70](美)乔根森著,李京文等译.生产率(第1卷):战后美国经济增长[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2001
[71](美)乔根森著,李京文等译.生产率(第2卷):经济增长的国际比较[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2001
[72](美)索洛著,胡汝银译.经济增长理论:一种解说/上海:三联书店上海分店出版,1989
[73](美)西蒙·库兹涅茨,常勋等译.各国的经济增长第2版[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999
[74](英)阿瑟·刘易斯著,周师铭等译.经济增长理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1996
[75](英国)安格斯.麦迪森.世界经济二百年回顾[M].北京:改革出版社,1997.
[76](英国)安格斯.麦迪森.世界经济千年史[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[77](英国)安格斯.麦迪森.中国经济的长远未来[M].北京:新华出版社,1999.
[78]白雪梅.中国区域经济发展的比较研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1998.
[79]波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002.
[80]陈栋生,区域协调发展的理论与实践[J],边疆经济与文化,2005(1)
[81]陈刚,陈红儿.区际j盘业转移转移理论探微[J].贵州社会科学,2001,(4).
[82]陈刚.接受产业转移,促进经济发展.对欠发达地区经济发展战略的一点思考[J].思考与运用,2001,1,(10).
[83]陈刚等.区际产业转移的效应分析及相应政策建议[J].华东经济管理,2000,(1).
[84]陈红儿.区际产业转移的内涵、机制、效应[J].内蒙古社会科学,2002,1:16.
[85]陈计旺.区际产业转移与要素流动的比较研究[J].生产力研究,1999,(3).
[86]陈佳贵,黄群惠、钟宏武.中国地区工业化进程的综合评价和特征分析[J].经济研究,2006,(6).
[87]陈佳贵,黄群慧.工:业发展、国情变化与经济现代化战略.中国成为工业大国的 国情分析[J].中国社会科学,2005,(7).
[88]陈建军.产业区域转移与东扩西进战略[M].北京:中华书局,2002.
[89]陈磊.中国经济周期波动的测定和理论研究[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2005
[90]陈秀山,张可云.区域经济理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2003
[91]陈映.区域经济发展阶段理论述评[J].求索,2005,(2).16-18
[92]崔友平.熨平经济周期的宏观经济政策研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[93]戴维.罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,2004.
[94]邓小平文选:第三卷[M].北京:人民出版社,1993.
[95]丁纪岗.区域视野下的中国经济增长与波动[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006
[96]董文泉,高铁梅等.经济周期波动的分析与预测方法[M].长春:吉林大学出版社,1998.
[97]杜俊涛,陈迅.增长极理论的模型化研究[J].重庆大学学报自然科学版.2002,(4):103-106.
[98]樊安群.中国经济转轨阶段论:兼论GDP的科学发展观[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2005
[99]樊纲,张晓晶.怎么又过热了?:新一轮经济波动与宏观调控分析[M].南昌:江西人民出版社,2005
[100]范保群,许庆瑞.试论经济发展阶段划分的结构变革标准[J].电子科技大学学报社科版.2000(2)
[101]范剑勇,朱国林.中国地区差距演变及其结构分解[J].管理世界,2002,7.
[102]方齐云,王皓等.增长经济学[M].武汉:湖北人民出版社,2002.
[103]冯邦彦,叶穗瑜.从增长极理论看我国区域经济的梯度丌发--兼论西部大开发的推进策略[J].暨南学报(哲学社会科学版),2001,(4).12-17
[104]冯煜.1978-1996年的中国经济波动[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1998
[105]弗朗索瓦.佩普.经济空间:理论与运用[J].经济学季刊.1950,(1).
[106]高善文.在周期的拐点上:从数据看中国经济的波动[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2006
[107]高铁梅,梁云芳.论中国增长型经济周期波动及适度增长区间[J].经济学动态,2005,(8).
[108]龚六堂.经济增长理论[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2000
[109]古扎拉蒂.计量经济学(第三版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[110]管毅平.宏观经济波动.重大争论的回顾与评论[J].国外社会科学.2001(1).
[111]郭金林.邓小平经济发展战略阶段论[J].湖北大学学报(哲学社会科学 版),1995,(1).
[112]郭克莎.工业增长质量研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,1998
[113]郭克莎.中国工业化的进程、问题与出路[J].中国社会科学,2004,(1).
[114]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算[J].经济研究,2004,(5).
[115]哈伯勒.繁荣与萧条[M].北京:商务印书馆,1988.
[116]韩汉君.经济发展阶段论及其启示[J].社会科学,1996,(6).73-76
[117]贺铿,李鲁阳.投资消费与经济增长[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006
[118]侯家营.增长极理论及其运用[J].审计与经济研究,2000,(6).57-60
[119]胡乃武,刘睿.潜在产出估计的文献综述[J].山西财经大学学报,2004,(6).
[120]黄先海.蛙跳型经济增长:后发国发展路径及中国的选择[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2005
[121]霍希敏.浅谈邓小平经济发展阶段论[J].廊坊师范学院学报,1999,(1).
[1221解三明.中国经济增长潜力和经济周期研究[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2001.
[123]景维民,张慧君.经济转型的阶段性演化与相对市场化进程研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2006
[124]雷钦礼.制度变迁、技术创新与经济增长:中国经济增长的理论与实证分析[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003
[125]李春明.试论我国经济发展所处的阶段及其对策[J].经济评论,1998,(1).19-25
[126]李建伟.我国经济增长的内在趋势及其周期性波动特征[J].经济学动态,2006,(4).
[127]李善同主编.快速增长没有终结[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2001.
[128]李新安.从区域利益看我国地区的不均衡发展[J].开发研究,2004(2).
[129]厉无畏,王振.科学发展观与新一轮经济增长[M].上海:学林出版社,2005
[130]厉以宁.区域发展新思路[M].北京:经济日报出版社,2000.
[131]厉以宁.中国经济增长与波动[M].北京:中国计划出版社,1993
[132]刘斌,张怀清.我国产出缺口的估计[J].金融研究,2001,(10).
[133]刘崇义.经济周期论[M].北京:人民出版社,2006
[134]刘方械.消费:拉动经济增长的引擎[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2005
[135]刘恒,陈述云.中国经济周期波动的新态势[J].管理世界,2003(3).
[136]刘恒.当代中国经济周期波动及形成机理研究[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2003
[137]刘金全,王风云.我国经济增长的态势与经济政策的稳定性[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2003(4).
[138]刘金全.从“软着陆”到“软扩张”[J].经济学动态.2003(5).
[139]刘乃全.区域经济理论的新发展[J].外国经济与管理.2000,(9).
[140]刘瑞,袁福华.我国潜在总供给测算与社会生产能力利用状况评估[J].宏观经济研究,2003,(9).
[141]刘世锦.传统与现代之间:增长模式转型与新型工业化道路的选择[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006
[142]刘树成,张晓晶,张平.实现经济周期波动在适度高位的平滑化[J].经济研究,2005,(11).10-21
[143]刘树成.繁荣与稳定:中国经济波动研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2000
[144]刘树成.论中国经济增长波动的新态势[J].中国社会科学.2000(3).
[145]刘树成.新一轮经济周期的背景特点[J].经济研究 2004(3).
[146]刘迎秋.次高增长阶段的中国经济[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2002
[147]刘迎秋.论我国国民经济的次高增长阶段[J].中国社会科学,1999,(4):87-101.
[148]柳欣.中国宏观经济运行与经济波动(1990-2002)[M].北京:人民出版社,2003
[149]陆军,钟丹.泰勒规则在中国的协整检验[J].经济研究,2003,(8).
[150]吕先竞.西部地区工业化发展阶段判断[J].四川工业学院学报,2002,(4).61-63、67
[151]吕政,郭克莎,张其仔.论我国传统工业化道路的经验与教训[J].中国工业经济,2003,(1).
[152]马海霞.区域产业传递与欠发达地区经济的发展[J].新疆大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2002,4:21.
[153]马祟明.中国工业化进程统计测度与实证[J].江西财经大学学报,2002,(4).52-55
[154]聂华林,赵超.我国区际产业转移对西部产业发展的影响[J].兰州大学学报(社会科学版),2000,(5).
[155]钱纳里,H.鲁宾逊,赛尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社.1995.
[156]荣跃明.区域整合与经济增长:经济区域化趋势研究[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2005
[157]沈坤荣.新增长理论与中国经济增长[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2003
[158]沈利生.我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1999,(12).
[159]沈利生.中国经济波动和宏观调控研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,1995
[160]舒元,谢识予.现代经济增长模型[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1998
[161]覃成林.中国区域经济差异研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1997
[162]王广谦.中国经济增长波动与政策选择[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1999
[163]王梦奎.新阶段的中国经济[M].北京:人民出版社,2002
[164]王小广.中部振兴新战略:培育第二增长极[J].财经界.2004(11).
[165]王志伟.中国经济周期及其理论的比较研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1998
[166]威廉.H.格林.经济计量分析[M].北京中国社会科学出版社,1998.
[167]魏后凯.21世纪中西部工业发展战略[M].郑州:河南人民出版社,2000.
[168]魏后凯.产业转移的发展趋势及其对竞争力的影响[J].福建论坛(经济社会版),2003,(4).
[169]魏后凯.应该积极引导沿海产业向中西部转移[N],人民日报,2006-2-25,(6).
[170]魏后凯.中国地区发展:经济增长、制度变迁与地区差异[M].北京:经济管理出版社,1997
[171]魏后凯.中国地区经济增长及其收敛性[J].中国工业经济.1997(3).
[172]温强洲.邓小平的共富空间布局思想与江泽民的运作实践[J].邓小平思想研究,1997(8).
[173]翁君奕,徐华.非均衡增长与协调发展[M].北京:中国发展出版社,1996.
[174]吴敬琏.中国增长模式抉择(第2版)[M].上海:上海远东出版社,2006
[175]伍海华.经济增长、波动与调整[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[176]谢平,罗雄.泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验[J].经济研究,2002,(3).
[177]徐现祥.中国省区经济增长分布的演进(1978-1998)[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2006
[178]颜鹏飞,马瑞.经济增长极理论的演变和最新进展[J].福建论坛.2003,(1):71-75.
[179]颜鹏飞,邵秋芬.经济增长极理论研究[J].财经理论与实践,2001,(2).2-6
[180]叶飞文.要素投入与中国经济增长[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2004
[181]易丹辉主编.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002.
[182]雍红月,李松林.谈工业化概念及工业化阶段的划分标准[J].内蒙古统计,2002,(2).36-38
[183]袁志刚,范剑勇.1978年以来中国的工业化进程及其地区差异分析[J].管理世界,2003,(7)
[184]约翰.伊特韦尔,默里.米尔盖特,彼得.纽曼.新帕尔格雷夫大词典[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1996.
[185]岳希明,张曙光,许宪春.中国经济增长速度研究与争论[M].北京:中信出版社,2005
[186]曾国安.试论工业化阶段的划分[J].经济评论,1997,(3).32-39
[187]詹姆斯.D.汉密尔顿.时间序列分析[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1999年。
[188]张锦鹏.增长极理沦与不发达地区区域经济发展战略探索[J].当代经济科学,1999,60.
[189]张军.资本形成、投资效率与中国的经济增长:实证研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005
[190]张连城.1999年中国经济的拐点[J].中国市场,1999,(3).
[191]张连城.论经济波动的制度原因及政府的政策选择[J].经济与管理研究,2002,(5).
[192]张连城.论经济增长的阶段性与适度区间的界定和控制[J].经济与管理研究,2006,(1):12-18.
[193]张连城.论经济增长的阶段性与中国经济增长的适度区间[J].管理世界,1999,(1).
[194]张连城.我国的经济运行周期和政策的基本取向[J].投资北京,1999,(3).
[195]张连城.我国经济周期的阶段特征和经济增长趋势[J].经济与管理研究,1999,(1).
[196]张连城.中国宏观经济的新走势[J].中国改革,2007,(7):28-31
[197]颜双波.“中国大萧条”预言将不攻自破[J].中国改革,2008,(1):46-47.
[198]颜双波,张连城.协调区域非均衡发展的博弈论视角考察[J].改革与战略,2007,(11):85-88,93.
[199]颜双波,张连城.潜在产出与产出缺口的界定与测算方法[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2007,(1):42-48.
[200]汪新波,颜双波.金融发展、宏观稳定与经济增长--中国经济增长与周期高峰论坛(2007)会议综述[J].经济与管理研究,2007,(7):5-9.
[201]郑新立.论新经济增长点[M].北京:中国物价出版社,2001
[202]中国国家统计局·中国统计年鉴[M]·中国统计出版社出版,2006
[203]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所.中国工业发展报告:科学发展观与经济增长方式转变[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2006
[204]钟阳胜.追赶型经济增长理论:一种组织经济增长的新思路(第5版)[M].广州:广东高等教育出版社,2003
[205]周立群等.启动东业西移,推动西部开发[J].教学与研究,2000,12:18.
[206]朱保华.新经济增长理论[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,1999
[2] Akamatsu, K. A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries[J].The Developing Economies, 1962,(1):3—25.
[3] Apel M, P Jansson. System Estimates of Potential Output and the NAIRU[M]. Economics Department, Sveriges Riks bank, 1997.
[4] Arrow, Kenneth. J. The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1962,29:155-173.
[5] Barro.R.J and Xavier Sala.I.Martin.Economic Growth[M].Inc:Mcgrow-Hill,1995.
[6] Baxter M, King R.G. Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series [M].Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge (MA),1995.
[7] Beverage, B. S. and Nelson, C, 1981. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics 7, 151-174.
[8] Black, F., 1987. Business cycle and equilibrium, Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.
[9] Brezis, E., Krugman , P., Tsiddon, D., "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadship". American Economic Review, Dec, 1993.
[10]Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C, 1946. Measuring business cycles, New York: NBER.
[11]Daniel, E. S., 1993. Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look, Economic Inquiry, Vol.XXXI.
[12]Dawson, J. W. and Stephenson, E. F., 1997. The link between volatility and growth: evidence form the states, Economic Letters, 55: 365-369.
[13]Discussion Paper in In-ternational Investment and Business Studies[C].University of Reading, 1990, (139):24.
[14]Dumais, Ellison and Glaeser. Geographic concentration as a dynamic process, NBER working paper, 1997,No.6270.
[15]E Nelson, K. Nikolov. UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement[M]. Working Paper Bank of England,2001.
[16]Elise S Brezis, P R Krugman, Daniel Tsiddon. Leapfrogging in International Competition: A theory of Cycle in National Technological Leadership [J]. The American Economic Review, 83(5).
[17]Enders, W., 1995. Applied econometric time series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
[18]Engle, R. F., 1982. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of the United Kingdom inflation, Econometrics, 50.
[19]Fatas, A., 1998. Does EMU need a fiscal federation?, Economic Policy, 26, 165-203.
[20]Filardo, A. J., 1994. Business cycle stages and their transitional dynamics, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299-308.
[21] Frederic S. Mishkin, Fall 1995. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp3-10.
[22] Friedman, M. and Schwartz, A. J., 1963. A monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
[23]Friedman, M. and Schwartz, A. J., 1963. Money and business cycle, Review of Economics and Statistics, 32-64.
[24]Gali, J., 1994. Government size and macroeconomic stability, European Economic Review, 38,117-132.
[25] Gilbert A. A Note on the Incidence of Development in the Vicinity of a Growth Centre. Regional Studies, 1975.
[26]Giorno C. P, Richardson D. Estimating Potential Output Gap and Structrual Budget Balances[M]. Economics Department, Working Paper, 1995.
[27] Granger, C. W. J., 1969. Investigative causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrics, 37, 24-36.
[28]Hamilton J. D. Time Series Analysis[M]. Princeton University Press, 1994.
[29]Hamilton, J. D., 1989. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle, Econometrics, 57, 357-384.
[30]Hansen, A. H., 1941. Fiscal policy and business cycles, New York: W. W. Norton and Company.
[31] Harvey. A. Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1989.
[32]Hess, G. D. and Iwata, S., 1997. Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth, Journal of Monetary Economics 40,535-554.
[33]Hodrick, R. J. and Prescott, E. C, 1980. Post-war U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, Working Paper, Carnegie University.
[34]J.H.Thompson. Some Theoretical consideration for manufacturing Geography, Economic Geography,1966,vol,3:127-145.
[35]Jorg Scheibe. The Chinese Output Gap during the Reform Period 1978-2002[M]. Department of Economics Discussion Paper,University of Oxford,2003.
[36] Kim, C. J. and C. R. Nelson, 1999. Has the U.S. economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on a Markov-switching model of business cycle, Review of Economics and Statistics 81(4), 608-616.
[37] King, R. G. and Plosser, C. I., 1984. Money, credit and prices in a real business cycle, American Economic Review, 74, 363-380.
[38]Klmi enko M· "Competition, matching, and geographical clustering at early stages of the industry life cycle", Journal of Economics and Business, 2004, vol·56, issue 3, pp·177-195·
[39]Kuttner, K. and Posen. A. S., 2001. The Great Recession: lessons for macroeconomic policy from Japan. Brooking Papers of Economic Activities, 2, 93-160.
[40] Lawrence, J. C. and Terry J. F., 1999. The band pass filter, NBER Working Paper 7257.
[41]Long, J. and Plosser, C, 1983. Real business cycles, Journal of Political Economy 91, pp. 39-69.
[42] Lucas, R. E., 1975. An equilibrium model of business cycle, Journal of Political Economy 83, pp. 1113-1144.
[43]Lucas, R. E., 1981. Studies in Business Cycle Theory, Oxford: Basic Blackwell.
[44] M.J.Taylor. Organizational growth, spatial interaction and location decision-making, Regional Studies, 1975,9:313-323.
[45] Martin, P. and C. A. Rogers, 2000. Long-term and short-term economic instability, European Economic Review 44, 359-381.
[46]McConnell, M. M. and G. Perez-Quiros, 2000. Output fluctuations in the United States: What has changed since the early 1980's? American Economic Review 90 (5), 1464-1476.
[47] Mills, T. C. and N. F. R. Crafts, 2000. After the Golden Age: A long run perspective on growth rates that speeded up, slowed down and still differ, Manchester School 68, 68-91.
[48]Mills,T.C.and P.Wang,2000.Searching for the sources of stabilization in output growth rates:Evidence from the G-7 Economies,Research paper no.00/7,Department of Economics,Loughborough University.
[49]Okun,A.M.,1962,Potential GNP:Its Measurement and Significance,Proceedings of the Business and Economics Session,American Statistical Association,98-104.
[50]Plosser,C.I.,1989.Understanding real business cycles,Journal of Economic Perspectives 3,51-77.
[51]Porter,M·E·"Competitive Advantage:Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance",New York:The Free Press,1985.
[52]Ramsey,R.and Ramsey,V.A.,1995.Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth,American Economic Review,85,1138-1151.
[53]Romer,C.D.,1999.Changes in business cycles:evidence and explanations,NBER Working paper 6948.
[54]S.Ellis& C.Rogers.Local Economic Development as Game:Were caught in a Trap,I cant' walk out[R].The Regional Research Institute Working Paper,West Virginia University,prepared for the Southern Regional Science Association Meeting,1997.
[55]Siebert H.Regional economic growth:theory and policy[M].International textbook company,1969.
[56]Sims,C.A.,1982.Policy analysis with econometric models,Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1,107-152.
[57]Steven Weber,1997.The end of the business cycle?,Foreign Affairs,July/August.
[58]Stock,J.and Watson,M.,1998.Business cycle fluctuations in U.S.macroeconomic time series,NBER working paper 6528.
[59]Tong,H.,1990.Nonlinear Time Series Analysis:A dynamical system approach,New York:Oxford University Press.
[60]Wells,L.T."Third World Multinationals The Rise of Foreign Direct Investment from Developing Countries",Cambridge,Mass.:MIT Press,1983.
[61](美)W.W.罗斯托(W.W.Rostow),郭熙保,王松茂译.经济增长的阶段:非共产党宣言[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2001
[62](美)查尔斯·I.琼斯(CharlesI.Jones)著,舒元等译.经济增长导论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2002
[63](美)库兹涅茨著,戴睿,易诚译.现代经济增长:速度、结构与扩展[M].北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989
[64](美)理查德·R·纳尔森(Richard R.Nelson)著,汤光华等译.经济增长的源泉[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2001
[65](美)刘易斯(Lewis,W.A.),梁小民译.增长与波动[M].北京:华夏出版社,1987
[66](美)罗伯特 J.巴罗,哈维尔·萨拉伊马丁著;何晖,刘明兴译.经济增长[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2000
[67](美)罗伯特.J.巴罗,方松英译.现代经济周期理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1997
[68](美)罗伯特·J·巴罗著,李剑译经济增长的决定因素:跨国经验研究[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004
[69](美)罗伯特·M·索洛,史清琪等选译.经济增长因素分析[M].北京:商务印书馆,1991
[70](美)乔根森著,李京文等译.生产率(第1卷):战后美国经济增长[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2001
[71](美)乔根森著,李京文等译.生产率(第2卷):经济增长的国际比较[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2001
[72](美)索洛著,胡汝银译.经济增长理论:一种解说/上海:三联书店上海分店出版,1989
[73](美)西蒙·库兹涅茨,常勋等译.各国的经济增长第2版[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999
[74](英)阿瑟·刘易斯著,周师铭等译.经济增长理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1996
[75](英国)安格斯.麦迪森.世界经济二百年回顾[M].北京:改革出版社,1997.
[76](英国)安格斯.麦迪森.世界经济千年史[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[77](英国)安格斯.麦迪森.中国经济的长远未来[M].北京:新华出版社,1999.
[78]白雪梅.中国区域经济发展的比较研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1998.
[79]波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002.
[80]陈栋生,区域协调发展的理论与实践[J],边疆经济与文化,2005(1)
[81]陈刚,陈红儿.区际j盘业转移转移理论探微[J].贵州社会科学,2001,(4).
[82]陈刚.接受产业转移,促进经济发展.对欠发达地区经济发展战略的一点思考[J].思考与运用,2001,1,(10).
[83]陈刚等.区际产业转移的效应分析及相应政策建议[J].华东经济管理,2000,(1).
[84]陈红儿.区际产业转移的内涵、机制、效应[J].内蒙古社会科学,2002,1:16.
[85]陈计旺.区际产业转移与要素流动的比较研究[J].生产力研究,1999,(3).
[86]陈佳贵,黄群惠、钟宏武.中国地区工业化进程的综合评价和特征分析[J].经济研究,2006,(6).
[87]陈佳贵,黄群慧.工:业发展、国情变化与经济现代化战略.中国成为工业大国的 国情分析[J].中国社会科学,2005,(7).
[88]陈建军.产业区域转移与东扩西进战略[M].北京:中华书局,2002.
[89]陈磊.中国经济周期波动的测定和理论研究[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2005
[90]陈秀山,张可云.区域经济理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2003
[91]陈映.区域经济发展阶段理论述评[J].求索,2005,(2).16-18
[92]崔友平.熨平经济周期的宏观经济政策研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[93]戴维.罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,2004.
[94]邓小平文选:第三卷[M].北京:人民出版社,1993.
[95]丁纪岗.区域视野下的中国经济增长与波动[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006
[96]董文泉,高铁梅等.经济周期波动的分析与预测方法[M].长春:吉林大学出版社,1998.
[97]杜俊涛,陈迅.增长极理论的模型化研究[J].重庆大学学报自然科学版.2002,(4):103-106.
[98]樊安群.中国经济转轨阶段论:兼论GDP的科学发展观[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2005
[99]樊纲,张晓晶.怎么又过热了?:新一轮经济波动与宏观调控分析[M].南昌:江西人民出版社,2005
[100]范保群,许庆瑞.试论经济发展阶段划分的结构变革标准[J].电子科技大学学报社科版.2000(2)
[101]范剑勇,朱国林.中国地区差距演变及其结构分解[J].管理世界,2002,7.
[102]方齐云,王皓等.增长经济学[M].武汉:湖北人民出版社,2002.
[103]冯邦彦,叶穗瑜.从增长极理论看我国区域经济的梯度丌发--兼论西部大开发的推进策略[J].暨南学报(哲学社会科学版),2001,(4).12-17
[104]冯煜.1978-1996年的中国经济波动[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1998
[105]弗朗索瓦.佩普.经济空间:理论与运用[J].经济学季刊.1950,(1).
[106]高善文.在周期的拐点上:从数据看中国经济的波动[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2006
[107]高铁梅,梁云芳.论中国增长型经济周期波动及适度增长区间[J].经济学动态,2005,(8).
[108]龚六堂.经济增长理论[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2000
[109]古扎拉蒂.计量经济学(第三版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[110]管毅平.宏观经济波动.重大争论的回顾与评论[J].国外社会科学.2001(1).
[111]郭金林.邓小平经济发展战略阶段论[J].湖北大学学报(哲学社会科学 版),1995,(1).
[112]郭克莎.工业增长质量研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,1998
[113]郭克莎.中国工业化的进程、问题与出路[J].中国社会科学,2004,(1).
[114]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算[J].经济研究,2004,(5).
[115]哈伯勒.繁荣与萧条[M].北京:商务印书馆,1988.
[116]韩汉君.经济发展阶段论及其启示[J].社会科学,1996,(6).73-76
[117]贺铿,李鲁阳.投资消费与经济增长[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006
[118]侯家营.增长极理论及其运用[J].审计与经济研究,2000,(6).57-60
[119]胡乃武,刘睿.潜在产出估计的文献综述[J].山西财经大学学报,2004,(6).
[120]黄先海.蛙跳型经济增长:后发国发展路径及中国的选择[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2005
[121]霍希敏.浅谈邓小平经济发展阶段论[J].廊坊师范学院学报,1999,(1).
[1221解三明.中国经济增长潜力和经济周期研究[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2001.
[123]景维民,张慧君.经济转型的阶段性演化与相对市场化进程研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2006
[124]雷钦礼.制度变迁、技术创新与经济增长:中国经济增长的理论与实证分析[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003
[125]李春明.试论我国经济发展所处的阶段及其对策[J].经济评论,1998,(1).19-25
[126]李建伟.我国经济增长的内在趋势及其周期性波动特征[J].经济学动态,2006,(4).
[127]李善同主编.快速增长没有终结[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2001.
[128]李新安.从区域利益看我国地区的不均衡发展[J].开发研究,2004(2).
[129]厉无畏,王振.科学发展观与新一轮经济增长[M].上海:学林出版社,2005
[130]厉以宁.区域发展新思路[M].北京:经济日报出版社,2000.
[131]厉以宁.中国经济增长与波动[M].北京:中国计划出版社,1993
[132]刘斌,张怀清.我国产出缺口的估计[J].金融研究,2001,(10).
[133]刘崇义.经济周期论[M].北京:人民出版社,2006
[134]刘方械.消费:拉动经济增长的引擎[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2005
[135]刘恒,陈述云.中国经济周期波动的新态势[J].管理世界,2003(3).
[136]刘恒.当代中国经济周期波动及形成机理研究[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社,2003
[137]刘金全,王风云.我国经济增长的态势与经济政策的稳定性[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2003(4).
[138]刘金全.从“软着陆”到“软扩张”[J].经济学动态.2003(5).
[139]刘乃全.区域经济理论的新发展[J].外国经济与管理.2000,(9).
[140]刘瑞,袁福华.我国潜在总供给测算与社会生产能力利用状况评估[J].宏观经济研究,2003,(9).
[141]刘世锦.传统与现代之间:增长模式转型与新型工业化道路的选择[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006
[142]刘树成,张晓晶,张平.实现经济周期波动在适度高位的平滑化[J].经济研究,2005,(11).10-21
[143]刘树成.繁荣与稳定:中国经济波动研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2000
[144]刘树成.论中国经济增长波动的新态势[J].中国社会科学.2000(3).
[145]刘树成.新一轮经济周期的背景特点[J].经济研究 2004(3).
[146]刘迎秋.次高增长阶段的中国经济[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2002
[147]刘迎秋.论我国国民经济的次高增长阶段[J].中国社会科学,1999,(4):87-101.
[148]柳欣.中国宏观经济运行与经济波动(1990-2002)[M].北京:人民出版社,2003
[149]陆军,钟丹.泰勒规则在中国的协整检验[J].经济研究,2003,(8).
[150]吕先竞.西部地区工业化发展阶段判断[J].四川工业学院学报,2002,(4).61-63、67
[151]吕政,郭克莎,张其仔.论我国传统工业化道路的经验与教训[J].中国工业经济,2003,(1).
[152]马海霞.区域产业传递与欠发达地区经济的发展[J].新疆大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2002,4:21.
[153]马祟明.中国工业化进程统计测度与实证[J].江西财经大学学报,2002,(4).52-55
[154]聂华林,赵超.我国区际产业转移对西部产业发展的影响[J].兰州大学学报(社会科学版),2000,(5).
[155]钱纳里,H.鲁宾逊,赛尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社.1995.
[156]荣跃明.区域整合与经济增长:经济区域化趋势研究[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2005
[157]沈坤荣.新增长理论与中国经济增长[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2003
[158]沈利生.我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1999,(12).
[159]沈利生.中国经济波动和宏观调控研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,1995
[160]舒元,谢识予.现代经济增长模型[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1998
[161]覃成林.中国区域经济差异研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1997
[162]王广谦.中国经济增长波动与政策选择[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1999
[163]王梦奎.新阶段的中国经济[M].北京:人民出版社,2002
[164]王小广.中部振兴新战略:培育第二增长极[J].财经界.2004(11).
[165]王志伟.中国经济周期及其理论的比较研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1998
[166]威廉.H.格林.经济计量分析[M].北京中国社会科学出版社,1998.
[167]魏后凯.21世纪中西部工业发展战略[M].郑州:河南人民出版社,2000.
[168]魏后凯.产业转移的发展趋势及其对竞争力的影响[J].福建论坛(经济社会版),2003,(4).
[169]魏后凯.应该积极引导沿海产业向中西部转移[N],人民日报,2006-2-25,(6).
[170]魏后凯.中国地区发展:经济增长、制度变迁与地区差异[M].北京:经济管理出版社,1997
[171]魏后凯.中国地区经济增长及其收敛性[J].中国工业经济.1997(3).
[172]温强洲.邓小平的共富空间布局思想与江泽民的运作实践[J].邓小平思想研究,1997(8).
[173]翁君奕,徐华.非均衡增长与协调发展[M].北京:中国发展出版社,1996.
[174]吴敬琏.中国增长模式抉择(第2版)[M].上海:上海远东出版社,2006
[175]伍海华.经济增长、波动与调整[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[176]谢平,罗雄.泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验[J].经济研究,2002,(3).
[177]徐现祥.中国省区经济增长分布的演进(1978-1998)[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2006
[178]颜鹏飞,马瑞.经济增长极理论的演变和最新进展[J].福建论坛.2003,(1):71-75.
[179]颜鹏飞,邵秋芬.经济增长极理论研究[J].财经理论与实践,2001,(2).2-6
[180]叶飞文.要素投入与中国经济增长[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2004
[181]易丹辉主编.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002.
[182]雍红月,李松林.谈工业化概念及工业化阶段的划分标准[J].内蒙古统计,2002,(2).36-38
[183]袁志刚,范剑勇.1978年以来中国的工业化进程及其地区差异分析[J].管理世界,2003,(7)
[184]约翰.伊特韦尔,默里.米尔盖特,彼得.纽曼.新帕尔格雷夫大词典[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1996.
[185]岳希明,张曙光,许宪春.中国经济增长速度研究与争论[M].北京:中信出版社,2005
[186]曾国安.试论工业化阶段的划分[J].经济评论,1997,(3).32-39
[187]詹姆斯.D.汉密尔顿.时间序列分析[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1999年。
[188]张锦鹏.增长极理沦与不发达地区区域经济发展战略探索[J].当代经济科学,1999,60.
[189]张军.资本形成、投资效率与中国的经济增长:实证研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005
[190]张连城.1999年中国经济的拐点[J].中国市场,1999,(3).
[191]张连城.论经济波动的制度原因及政府的政策选择[J].经济与管理研究,2002,(5).
[192]张连城.论经济增长的阶段性与适度区间的界定和控制[J].经济与管理研究,2006,(1):12-18.
[193]张连城.论经济增长的阶段性与中国经济增长的适度区间[J].管理世界,1999,(1).
[194]张连城.我国的经济运行周期和政策的基本取向[J].投资北京,1999,(3).
[195]张连城.我国经济周期的阶段特征和经济增长趋势[J].经济与管理研究,1999,(1).
[196]张连城.中国宏观经济的新走势[J].中国改革,2007,(7):28-31
[197]颜双波.“中国大萧条”预言将不攻自破[J].中国改革,2008,(1):46-47.
[198]颜双波,张连城.协调区域非均衡发展的博弈论视角考察[J].改革与战略,2007,(11):85-88,93.
[199]颜双波,张连城.潜在产出与产出缺口的界定与测算方法[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2007,(1):42-48.
[200]汪新波,颜双波.金融发展、宏观稳定与经济增长--中国经济增长与周期高峰论坛(2007)会议综述[J].经济与管理研究,2007,(7):5-9.
[201]郑新立.论新经济增长点[M].北京:中国物价出版社,2001
[202]中国国家统计局·中国统计年鉴[M]·中国统计出版社出版,2006
[203]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所.中国工业发展报告:科学发展观与经济增长方式转变[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2006
[204]钟阳胜.追赶型经济增长理论:一种组织经济增长的新思路(第5版)[M].广州:广东高等教育出版社,2003
[205]周立群等.启动东业西移,推动西部开发[J].教学与研究,2000,12:18.
[206]朱保华.新经济增长理论[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,1999