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中国农村基础设施公共投资与农业增长研究
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摘要
农业是国民经济的基础。中国是一个发展中的农业大国,长期积淀起来的“三农”问题影响着经济的健康发展。要解决“三农”问题,应当从何入手?本文一改通常研究“就事论事”的研究惯性,试图从影响“三农”的基础条件——农村基础设施公共投资的视角,研究农村基础设施等公共物品的提供对农业增长的影响。显然,此项研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。
     从本领域的研究现状看,考察基础设施和经济增长之间联系的相关研究大都发现了公共基础设施在经济发展中的重要性。但大多研究集中在考察农村基础设施对农业GDP的影响,较少从更深入层面,比如从农村基础设施对农业技术效率进而对农业生产影响的视角研究农村基础设施公共投资对农业的影响。对于农村基础设施效应的研究多采用时间序列数据,而较少采用面板数据,尤其是中国省级面板数据,因而说服力不够充分。本文拟从“农村基础设施投资——农业技术效率——农业生产增长”三者关系及其影响和传导机制的视角,更深层和更具体地探讨和揭示农村基础设施公共投资与农业生产的关系,力图从研究视角和研究方法上有所创新。
     本文在整理关于农村基础设施相关研究成果基础上,对农村基础设施公共投资的内涵和外延进行了界定和进一步阐述,从定性和定量等多个角度探讨了农村基础设施公共投资与农业增长的关系,在此基础上,试图提出中国农村基础设施投资制度改革的新思路。从定性研究看,“市场失灵”和国家干预主义经济理论、“外部性”和公共产品理论,赫尔希曼的“引致决策最大化”理论,舒尔茨的农业经济增长理论以及张培刚的“农业与工业化”理论等都为政府对农村基础设施进行投资提供了坚实的理论基础。农村基础设施的公共产品特性、农业的弱质产业特征以及农产品缺乏需求弹性的特征也决定了农村基础设施公共投资的必要性。
     定量关系的分析是本文分析的重点所在,从定量的角度而言:第一,本研究以农业R&D为例,考察了农村基础设施公共投资与中国农业增长之间在时间序列层面的动态关系,发现二者确实存在正相关,且只存在农业R&D公共投资到农业增长的单向格兰杰因果关系;第二,本研究根据中国的行政区划、农业地理区位以及农业生态特征,将中国划分为八个农业区域,运用面板数据考察了农村基础设施公共投资对中国农业技术效率的影响,结果表明这些公共投资都显著改善了农业技术效率。第三,运用1994~2006年的省级面板数据分析了农田水利灌溉、农村电力、农业科研和农村教育四类农村基础设施公共投资对农业增长的影响。结果发现土地和劳动投入与农业增长的关系为反向的,这可能是由于农村制度变革、技术进步和公共投资增加等原因弥补了这两类传统投入的递减。农业机械的产出弹性最大,且农村基础设施公共投资对农业增长的作用均为正向的。第四,投资需求往往大于投资供给,尤其在中国农村公共投资欠账过多情况下更是如此,因此改善农村基础设施投资应当有先后顺序。本研究讨论了农村基础设施公共投资的优先序列问题,发现农业科研、农村电力和农村教育公共投资对农业增长的积极影响最明显。第五,本研究还分析了农村基础设施公共投资对中国东部和中西部农村区域差距的“贡献”,结果表明农村基础设施公共投资分布不均衡是拉大中国农村区域差距的一个主要因素。
     在前述定量分析的基础上,并针对中国农村基础设施公共投资中存在的现实问题,本研究借鉴和总结了某些发达国家和发展中国家在农村基础设施投资中的成功经验:农村基础设施投资的主体以政府为主;鼓励非政府组织和具备一定经济实力的农民共同参与农村基础设施投资;农村基础设施旨在服务农业生产和农民生活,所以应当鼓励农民参与农村基础设施的建设,并确立和尊重农民在农村基础设施公共投资决策中的主体地位,这也是提升公共投资效率的重要保障。此外,在不同地区、以及在同一地区经济发展的不同阶段,农村基础设施公共投资的主体构成不同,因而要采用不同的组织模式,以便更有效地服务“三农”。
     农村基础设施的投资是农业和农村经济发展的重要前提条件,就中国目前而言,“投资多少”、“谁来投资”、“投资在哪些领域”、“先后顺序如何确定”等问题亟待解决。本文将通过相关研究不同程度地回答这些问题。本研究借以展开的基本理念与通过理论和实证研究得出的结论是一致的:第一,中国农村基础设施公共投资应坚持“兼顾公平与效率”和“以农民需求为导向”两个基本原则;第二,完善农村基础设施投资的决策程序,实行“自下而上”的投资决策机制;第三,应根据中国各地区的不同农业资源禀赋以及农村基础设施公共投资的基础与水平分别采取不同的投资优先序,以确保投资能够最大限度地提升农业技术效率,促进农业增长;第四,应创造条件实现投资主体多元化;第五,应强化对公共投资的监督和管理。
Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy. China is a large agricultural country; "San Nong" issues have been affecting the healthy development of economy. In recent years, the government of China wants to resolve "San Nong" issues through "building a new socialist countryside". However, where to start to solve the "San Nong" issues? We attempt to study rural infrastructure's impact on agricultural growth from the perspective of rural infrastructure public investment which is basic condition of affecting "San Nong" issues. Clearly, this study has important theoretical and practical significance.
     From the present situation of research in related fields, many theories about inspection of the links between infrastructure and economic growth found the importance of public infrastructure in economic development. The earlier studies on rural infrastructure and agricultural growth mainly focused on the inspection of the developed countries, as deepening of research, the corresponding studies on developing countries had also made substantial progress. Especially in recent years, with the development of "buliding a new socialist countryside", there are lots of related researchs on rural infrastructure in China. However, most of studies on rural infrastructure in China only focused on rural infrastructure's impacts on agricultural GDP, but lacking further research, for example, lacking its impacts on agrcicultural technical efficiency. In addition, there are many studies using time series data, but comparely lacking studies using panel data. Therefore, they're not fully convincing. In this dissertation, we conducted a further exploration on the relatively neglected perspective and studied rural infrastucture public investment's impacts on agricultural growth in China, trying to be innovative.
     On the basis of organizing the existing achievements on the development of rural infrastructure, we defined and furtherly elaborated the connotation and extension of rural infrastructure public investment, and studied the relation between rural infrastructure public investment and agricultural growth from the qualitative and quantitative point of view, trying to put forward some new suggestions for system reform of investment on rural infrastructure. From a qualitative point of view, we think, market failure and state interbention in economic theory, public goods theory, Hirschmann's "maximing induced decision-making" theory, Schultz's "agricultural economic growth" theory and Chang Pei-kang's "agriculture and industrialization" theory provide solid theoretical foundation on government's investment on rural infrastructure. The public goods characteristics of rural infrastructure, the features that agriculture is weak industry and agricultural products are lack of demand elasticity determine the necessities of public investment on rural infrastructure.
     Quantitative analysises are the focus of this dissertation. From the quantitative point of view, first, we regarded agricultural R&D as an example and studied the dynamic relations between rural infrastructure public investment and agricultural growth in China. We found that there exist positive correlations between the two and only exist one-way Granger causality from agricultural R&D to agricultural growth. Secondly, China is divided into eight regions based on administrative divisions, as well as the geographical position of agricultural agro-ecological characteristics. We used the panel data of 1994-2006 to inspect rural infrastructure public investment's impacts on agricultural technical efficiency in China. The results showed that all these public investments significantly improved agricultural technical efficiency. Thirdly, combining the provincial panel data of 1994-2006, we used a double-log model with Cobb-Douglas form to deeply analyze some rural infrastructure-irrigation, rural electrification, agricultural R&D and rural education-public investment's impactss on agricultural growth. The results showed that the relations between land, labor inputs and agricultural growth are adverse, the reason for that is rural institutional change, technological progress and the increase of public investment made up for the decline of traditional inputs. In addition, we also found that the output elasticity of agricultural machinery is biggest and rural infrastructure public investment's impact on agricultural growth is positive. Fourthly, because of the limitation of current government funding, so we combined the results of above, furtherly discussed the problem of priority sequence on rural infrastructure public investment. We found that agricultural R&D, rural electricity and rural education public investment's positive impacts on agricultural growth are the most significant, so it is suggested that more governmental funding should be invested on above three parts. Fifthly, we also analyzed rural infrastructure public investment's contribution to regional inequality between different rural areas; the results showed that the uneven distribution of rural infrastructure public investment is a major factor of widening regional inequality between rural areas in China.
     On the basis of foregoing analysis and our real problems of rural infrastructure public investments in rural China, we also summarized the successful experience about rural infrastructure public investment in a number of major developed and developing countries: the major investment subject should be government; encouraging NGO and farmers who have certain economic ability to actively participate the construction of rural infrastructure; rural infrastructure is designed to serve agricultural production and farmers, so to encourage farmers to participate in the construction of rural infrastructure and to establish farmers the dominant position of decision-making, which is an important guarantee to enhance the efficiency of public investment; the focus of rural infrastructure investment should be diversified in different stages of development.
     Investment on rural infrastructure is important prerequisite for agriculture and rural development. As for current rural China, some questions requires prompt solution, for example, "how much to invest", "who will invest in", "invest in what areas", "how to determine the order", and so on. This article will answer these questions through relevant research. The basic concepts in this study and conclusions through theoretical and empirical research are consistent. First, public investment on rural infrastructure in China should take into account two major principles—give consideration to both efficiency and fairness; take farmer's demand as the guidance. Secondly, improving the decision-making process of rural infrastructure investment and implementing the "bottom-up" investment decision-making mechanism. Thirdly, the investment priority should be based on agricultural resource endowment and public investment level to maximize agricultural technical efficiency and promote agricultural growth. Fourthly, we should create conditions for investment subject diversification. Fifthly, the supervision and management of public investment should be strengthened.
引文
[1]详细内容可参见2007年中央发布的“一号文件”,http://nc.people.com.cn/GB/61154/5341707.html
    [1]Wharton, C. The Infrastructure for Agricultural Growth, in Agricultural Development and Economic Growth. New York: Cornell University Press, 1967:21
    [1]本节部分内容主要参考姜涛:《农村基础设施投资与农村发展研究述评》,《中南财经政法大学学报》,2008(5):124-129
    [2]“七国集团”于1976年形成,是指法国、德国、美国、日本、英国、意大利和加拿大。
    [1]赫尔希曼:《经济发展战略》,英文本,耶鲁大学出版社1958版;中译本,经济科学出版社1991版:71-79
    [2]张培刚:《发展经济学教程》(经济科学出版社,2001):314-315
    [1]资产支持型证券是以金融资产为支持型的债券或票据。典型的资产包括除抵押贷款以外的应收账款,例如信用卡应收账款、汽车贷款以及房地产贷款等。它与其它大多数债券的差别在于其信用价值(发行流通中的90%以上信用评级为3A级)并不取决于标的资产初始持有人的偿付能力。
    [2]李秀辉、张世英:《PPP:一种新型的项目融资方式》,《中国软科学》,2002(12):51-54
    [3]Sadka, E. Public-Private Partnerships:A Public Economics Perspective, IMF Working Paper, No.06/77, 2006
    [1]Wharton, C. The Infrastructure for Agricultural Growth, in Agricultural Development and Economic Growth. New York: Cornell University Press, 1967:21
    [2]李嘉晓,秦宏,罗剑朝:《论财政对农业投资及其行为优化》,《乡镇经济》,2005(6):20-23
    [3]韩东林:《转型时期中国农业投资主体的投资行为研究》,北京:经济科学出版社,2007:136
    [1]提出这种分类的代表学者是彭代彦,参见《农村基础设施投资与农业解困》,《经济学家》2002(5):79-82
    [1]李志远:《农村基础设施投资研究--以河北省为例》,河北农业大学博士学位论文,2007:28-30
    [2]符金陵:《中国农业公共投资问题研究》,华中农业大学博士学位论文,2005:16-17
    [1]赵丙奇:《论农村公共产品投资机制创新》,《农村经济》,2002(11):47-49
    [1]Paul A. Samuelson (1954): The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 36, No. 4:387-389
    [1]这四个方面的作用也就是经济学界通常所说的”农业四大贡献”,这一提法最早是由张培刚(1949)提出。参见《农业与工业化》英文本,哈佛大学出版社1949年版;中文本,华中工学院出版社1984年版:24-69
    [2]农业的资本积累一般通过两种方式实现:一是市场机制下的自动转移;二是政府操纵的强制性转移。
    [1]另外五个中央一号文件按照时间顺序依次为2005年1月30日公布的《中共中央国务院关于进一步加强农村工作提高农业综合生产能力若干政策的意见》,2006年2月21日公布的《中共中央国务院关于推进社会主义新农村建设的若干意见》,2007年1月29日公布的《中共中央国务院关于积极发展现代农业扎实推进社会主义新农村建设的若干意见》,2008年1月30日公布的《中共中央国务院关于切实加强农业基础建设进一步促进农业发展农民增收的若干意见》,2009年2月1日公布的《中共中央国务院关于2009年促进农业稳定发展农民持续增收的若干意见》。
    [2]该节主要参考董志凯:《中国农村基础设施投资的变迁(1950-2006)》,《中国经济史研究》,2008(3):29-37
    [1]详细内容可以参见国家统计局:《基础产业和基础设施建设成绩斐然--改革开放30年我国经济社会发展成就系列报告之四》,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjfx/ztfx/jnggkf30n/t20081030_402513138.htm
    [2]例如,“七五”时期的水利建设投资在基本建设投资中的比重仅为1.6%,比80年代以前的平均比重下降5个百分点。
    [1]由“七五”的9.38%下降到“十五”的8%左右。
    [2]李剑阁:《中国新农村建设调查》,上海:上海远东出版社,2007:174。转引自董志凯:《中国农村基础设施投资的变迁(1950-2006)》,《中国经济史研究》,2008(3):34
    [1]本节主要参考国家统计局:《农业与农村经济三十年辉煌成就--改革开放30年我国经济社会发展成就系列报告之八》,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjfx/ztfx/jnggkf30n/t20081105_402514634.htm
    [1]从2006年1月1日起,中国废止《中华人民共和国农业税条例》。
    [1]周连第,陈俊红,毛世平:《农村公共产品政府投资优化配置》,北京:中国经济出版社,2007:50-53
    [1]参见周连第、陈俊红、毛世平:《农村公共产品政府投资优化配置》,北京:中国经济出版社,2007:68-76
    [2]美国、日本、德国和印度等国在1991年的农业科研公共投资强度分别为2.02%,2.10%,1.88%和0.37%,参见表4.1。
    [1]湖北省教育厅:《湖北农村基础教育专题调查报告》(内部资料)。转引自高萍、钱量《湖北省农村公共投资的调查与分析》.《理论月刊》,2006(6):170-172
    [1]本节主要参考姜涛:《农业R&D公共投资与农业增长的动态关系研究》,《中国科技论坛》,2008(11):106-109
    [2]Akino, M. & Y. Hayami, Efficiency and Equity in Public Research: Rice Breeding in Japan's Economic Development. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1975, (2): 1-10
    [1]Banks, G., Public Policy Principles for Agricultural R&D, Conference Proceedings Global Agricultural Science Policy for the 21~(st) Century-Invited Papers, Melbourne, Australia, 1996, (8): 433-451
    [2]黄季焜,胡瑞法,Scott Rozelle:《中国农业科研经济:挑战与展望》,北京:中国财政经济出版社,2003:4
    [1]Granger, C. W. J., Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality, Journal of Econometrics, 1988, (39): 199-211
    [2]关于这种情况下的格兰杰因果检验的详细讨论,可以参见陈雄兵,张宗成.《再议Granger因果检验》,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2008(1):154-160
    [1]参考符金陵:《中国农业公共投资问题研究》,华中农业大学博士学位论文,2005:71-73
    [1]张珺:《中国农村公共产品供给》,北京”:社会科学文献出版社,2008:175-176
    [2]黄立华:《美国农村公共产品的供给及启示》,《北方经贸》2007(1):117-119
    [3]刘志扬:《美国农业科学技术推广的方式与启示》,《农业经济》,2003(8):46-47
    [4]张时霖:《美国农业绿色补贴计划》,《世界农业》,2000(5):8-10
    [1]李伟克:《美国农业补贴政策是如何实施的》,《世界农业》,1994(8):8-10
    [2]匡远配,汪三贵:《日本农村公共产品供给特点及其对我国的启示》,《日本问题研究》,2005(4):49-54
    [3]符金陵:《中国农业公共投资问题研究》,华中农业大学博士学位论文,2005:75-76
    [1]匡远配、汪三贵:《日本农村公共产品供给特点及其对我国的启示》,《日本问题研究》,2005(4):49-54
    [1]参见《印度新年度预算案有关农业问题的报告》,http://www.mof.gov.cn/nongyesi/zhengfuxinxi/tszs/200807/t20080717_57810.html.
    [1]张珺:《中国农村公共产品供给》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2008:231-234
    [1] 即“共同农业政策”(Common Agricultural Policy,简称CAP),参见第六章相应部分。
    [2] 马晓河,黄汉权,蓝海涛:《我国农村改革30年的成就、问题与今后改革思路》,《宏观经济研究》,2008(11):3-8
    [1] 黄汉权:《当前政府支农投资存在的问题和政策建议》,《中国经贸导刊》,2006(8):21-22
    [2] 《西班牙财税支农政策考察报告和政策建议》,http://www.mof.gov.cn/nongyesi/zhengfuxinxi/tszs/200806/t20080620_47682.html.
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