贡嘎山地区现代冰川变化研究
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摘要
冰川被认为是气候变化的最好指示器和存储器。冰川也与海平面变化、淡水资源供给、自然灾害及地貌演化等有密切关系。在全球气候变暖的背景之下,中国西部地区的绝大部分冰川处于退缩状态,20世纪80年代以来冰川退缩呈现加剧趋势,直接影响到冰川补给河流的径流变化,这势必对中国西部尤其是干旱地区的可持续发展带来极大影响。
遥感技术的发展为冰川监测及冰川变化研究提供了更多的有效手段,本文以典型季风温冰川一贡嘎山地区冰川为研究对象,基于地形图、遥感影像、GPS测量、DEM以及消融观测等数据,结合GIS技术,从冰川面积、体积、运动速率及冰川消融等方面分析冰川的现状及其变化规律,初步得出以下结论：
1)2009年,贡嘎山地区共有76条冰川,总面积为228.5±1.1km2,其中最大和最小冰川的面积分别为25.5km2和0.05km2;1～5km2冰川数量最多,而>10km2的冰川数量(6.5%)较少但贡献的面积却最大(45.7%)：按中值高度统计,冰川主要集中在4700-5700m,其中5300-5500m冰川数量和面积所占比例都最大；按冰川朝向统计,东南朝向的冰川总面积最大,西南朝向的数量最多,而无北朝向的冰川；该地区冰川坡度介于15～45°,其中坡度为25～30°的冰川所占数量和面积都最多。
2)1966～2009年,贡嘎山冰川总体处于退缩状态,冰川总面积减少率为11.3%,年均减小面积0.7±0.02km2。西坡冰川由41条减少到39条,面积减小15.0km2,减小率为14.6%；东坡冰川由33条增加到36条,但冰川面积减少15.2km2,减小率为9.8%。东西坡冰川面积退缩率的不同可能是由冰川规模的差异引起。海螺沟、燕子沟、磨子沟和大贡巴冰川末端分别退缩约1146±42.7m、725±42.7m、502±42.7m和1002±42.7m m。东朝向冰川的面积退缩率最大(25.5%),东南朝向冰川的退缩率最小(7.2%)。中值高度超过5700m的冰川面积退缩率最大(15.2%),其次是5100～5300m的冰川(14.4%)。坡度为30-35°的冰川面积退缩最快(15.5%),25～30°的冰川退缩率最慢。1～5km2的冰川面积退缩率最大(34.8%),其次是>10km2的冰川(26.8%),<0.5km2的冰川退缩率最小。近43年中,6个时段(1966、1974、1989、1994、2005和2009年)冰川的退缩速率又有所差异,其中2005-2009年面积退缩速率最大(1.3km2/yr),其次是1989～1994年(0.8km2/yr),而1994～2005年最小(0.4km2/yr)。
3)花杆观测数据显示,燕子沟冰川冰舌段,消融期平均日消融深为3.25cm,年消融深为424cm,最大消融出现在海拔3800～3900m。海螺沟冰川冰舌段的冰面消融,较燕子沟冰川要强,最大值出现在3200～3500m,且消融有近期加速的趋势。西坡的大、小贡巴冰川冰舌段冰面的消融强度相对较小。贡嘎山地区冰川冰舌段冰面消融总趋势为：东坡大于西坡,消融区海拔较低的冰川大于海拔较高的冰川,且最大值通常不是出现在冰川末端。
4)燕子沟冰川花杆的GPS测量数据显示,冰舌区平均年运动速度为41.7m/yr,最大为49m/yr,出现于海拔约3950m处；消融期平均运动速度为0.31m/d。与已有观测数据对比,燕子沟冰川运动速度近期略增,但远小于海螺沟冰川(41～205m/yr),而大于西坡大贡巴冰川(33m/yr)和小贡巴冰川(36m/yr),且它们冰面运动速度最大值都出现于消融区的上端。
5)不同时期冰川冰舌段(距离末端约3～4km) DEM差值的结果表明,1966～2009年海螺沟、燕子沟和大贡巴冰川消融区平均减薄速率分别为1.23±0.55、1.02±0.55和0.93±0.55m/yr；相应的体积减小0.076、0.073和0.057km3。1966～1989年3条冰川的高程及体积变化速率远小于1989～2009年的变化。
6)初步探讨冰川对气候变化的响应。a)近50年来,横断山地区与青藏高原具有相似的气候变化趋势,以增温为主,降水量略有增加。根据贡嘎山西坡九龙气象站数据计算,19662009年,该区域气温升高率为0.18℃/10a,而降水量增加不足1%。基于冰川敏感性模型可推断出,降水的增加量难以弥补气温升高引起的冰川消融量,导致该地区的冰川长期处于负物质平衡状态,进而引起冰川的大规模的消融退缩。多时段冰川面积与年平均气温、降水的对比,发现气温逐渐升高,冰川面积逐渐变小；而冰川面积退缩速率与相应时段的年平均降水的量也有较好的对应关系,即在气温升高的背景下,总降水量大时,冰川退缩速率小,总降水量小时,冰川退缩速率大。b)贡嘎山地区规模在1～5km2的冰川退缩速率最大,更大面积的冰川次之,而面积<0.5km2的冰川退缩速率最小。这一规律表明规模较小冰川对气候变化较为敏感,但面积<0.5km2的冰川因受地形保护影响较大而不能作为反映气候变化的指示器。c)气温升高幅度和表碛覆盖厚度是导致1966～1989年与1989～2009年两个时段三条观测冰川,以及东坡与西坡冰川减薄速率差异的主要因素。d)三条观测冰川坡度和末端高度的不同是导致其冰川运动速度差异的主要原因。冰川的变化不仅受气候因子的控制,也受到地形、冰川规模和类型等因素的影响。
Glaciers are a critical component of the earth system and the present accelerated melting and retreat of glaciers has severe impacts on the environment and human well-being, including vegetation patterns, economic livelihood, natural disasters, and water-energy supplies. Changes of glaciers in mountainous regions are widely recognized as one of the best natural indicators of global climate change, and the decline in glacier extent in mountains and other regions contributes to sea level rise. The glaciers in the west of China are not only an important supply of the numerous rivers, but also a large solid freshwater resource, which affect the life of peoples of the western dry region. With the contex of global warming, most of glaciers in China are retreating and the glacier retreat is more aggravately after1980s. The glacier retreat will affect the runoff of rivers and also brings a tremendous impact on the sustainable development of arid regions in western China. Hunce, the new glacier inventory of China is a necessary work.
In order to monitor the changes of the glaciers in the Gongga Mountain region on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, monsoonal temperate glaciers were investigated by comparing the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI), recorded in the1960s, with Landsat MSS in1974, Landsat TM in1989,1994,2005, and ASTER data in2009. The remote sensing data have been applied to map the glacier outline by threshold ratio images (TM4/TM5). Moreover, the glacier outlines were verified by GPS survey on four large glaciers (Hailuogou, Mozigou, Yanzigou, and Dagongba) in2009. The results show that the area dominated by the76glaciers has shrunk by11.3%(29.2km2) from1966to2009. Glacier area on the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains decreased by15.2km2(9.8%since1966) and15km2(14.6%since1966), respectively. The loss in glacier area and length is respectively0.8km2and1146m (26.7m/yr) for the Hailuogou glacier,2.1km2and502m (11.7m/yr) for the Mozigou Glacier,0.8km2and725m (16.9m/yr) for the Yanzigou Glacier, and2.4Wand1002m (23.3m/yr) for the Dagongba Glacier.
Glacier size strongly affects the percentage loss in glacier area. From1966to2009, the area loss in the size classes <0.5km2,0.5～1km2,1～5km2,5～10km2, and>10km2, equals6.3%,10.8%,34.8%,21.3%and26.8%, respectively. The shrinkage of the glaciers in the size class of1～5km2contributes to about1/3of the total area loss. In comparing glaciers changes with altitude, the glaciers area loss in the altitude5100～5300m and>5700m is larger than the glaciers in others altitude. The mean slope of all glaciers in this region ranges from15°to45°, and glaciers with the mean slope of15～20°and35～40°(covering an area of37.9%in1966) exhibit the largest shrinkage. The area loss of glaciers with the mean slope of25～30°is the smallest than others slopes. The shrinkage of these glaciers in northwest and east orientation is stronger than others aspects in this region and the glaciers in southeast orientation keep a smallest shrinkage.
When the glaciers are grouped according to size classes (according to their CGI area), it shows that glaciers in area of1～5km2had a more notable reduction in area than other sizes of glaciers. Although two small glaciers have vanished, the glaciers retreat with area<0.5km2is the slowest. The small glacier is more sensitive to the climate changes but the glacier with area <0.5km2is poorly coupled to the regional climate because of the local topographic setting. Furthermore, although the change of small glacier can be protected by local topographic setting, two smallest glaciers have vanished in the Gongga Mountains. This may be explained that the glacier is too small to a consistent accumulation zones.The rate of glacier area loss with median altitude>5700m is the largest, and the second is the median altitude5100-5300m. The glacier retreat become weaker with the increased slope until30°, and the rate of glacier retreat was similar when the slope exceeds30°. The glaciers with east, northwest and south orientation have an obvious shrinkage. Although we can not find systematically changes of glacier retreating correlating to topographic factors, the glacier size, slope and aspect would probably influence the rate of glacier retreating in the Gongga Mountains.
The DEM data was generated from dual-frequency differential GPS (GPS) data surveyed in2009combined with DEM from aerial photographs acquired in1966and1989. The results show that the mean elevation changes from1966to2009of ablation area are-1.23±0.55,-1.02±0.55and-0.93±0.55m/yr in Hailuogou, Yanzigou (east slope) and Dagongba Glacier (west slope), respectively. In consequence, all the three glaciers in ablation areas show decreasing trends with volume reduction of0.076,0.073and0.054km3, for Hailuogou, Yanzigou and Dagongba Glacier, respectively. The shrankage of glacier elevation and volume in the period of1966-1989is weaker than that in1989-2009. The glacier ablation of YZG glacier is about3.25cm/day in the summer and the average ablation is about424cm/yr. The maximum ablation of YZG Glacier is at an altitude of3800-3900m not at the glacier terminus. Compared with other glaciers, the ablation of YZG Glacier is stronger than DGB Glacier (271cm/yr) but weaker than HLG Glacier (582cm/yr). Ice velocities measured by DGPS at32fixed stakes implanted in the ablation area increase with distance from the glacier terminus, ranging from38m/yr approaching the glacier terminus to a maximum of49m/yr at the head of ablation area.
Decades of climate records obtained from three meteorological stations in the Gongga Mountains were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the temperature and precipitation on glacier retreat. During1966-2009, the mean annual temperature over the eastern and western slope of the Gongga Mountains has been increasing by0.34℃/decade and0.24℃/decade (1988～2009), respectively. Moreover, mean annual precipitation was only increasing1%in past50years. This evidence indicates that the warming of the climate is probably responsible for the glacier retreat in the study region. Compared the mean temperature with mean retreat rate of glaciers, the retreat rate is not related in a clear way to the mean temperature, while the mean precipitation shows a well corresponding relation with the retreat rate of glaciers. When the mean precipitation is high, the retreat rate of glacier is slow, and vice versa. The glacier retreat in the Gongga Mountains is similar to the same glacier type but faster than continental glaciers type in the west of China. However, we have procured many significative and interesting results. Many open questions still need to be solved (e.g. spatial resolution of remote sensing images; the different of fieldwork; accuracies of glacier mapping). In the future, the monitoring of the glacier changes will be a long-time and hard work, especially for alpine glaciers.
遥感技术的发展为冰川监测及冰川变化研究提供了更多的有效手段,本文以典型季风温冰川一贡嘎山地区冰川为研究对象,基于地形图、遥感影像、GPS测量、DEM以及消融观测等数据,结合GIS技术,从冰川面积、体积、运动速率及冰川消融等方面分析冰川的现状及其变化规律,初步得出以下结论：
1)2009年,贡嘎山地区共有76条冰川,总面积为228.5±1.1km2,其中最大和最小冰川的面积分别为25.5km2和0.05km2;1～5km2冰川数量最多,而>10km2的冰川数量(6.5%)较少但贡献的面积却最大(45.7%)：按中值高度统计,冰川主要集中在4700-5700m,其中5300-5500m冰川数量和面积所占比例都最大；按冰川朝向统计,东南朝向的冰川总面积最大,西南朝向的数量最多,而无北朝向的冰川；该地区冰川坡度介于15～45°,其中坡度为25～30°的冰川所占数量和面积都最多。
2)1966～2009年,贡嘎山冰川总体处于退缩状态,冰川总面积减少率为11.3%,年均减小面积0.7±0.02km2。西坡冰川由41条减少到39条,面积减小15.0km2,减小率为14.6%；东坡冰川由33条增加到36条,但冰川面积减少15.2km2,减小率为9.8%。东西坡冰川面积退缩率的不同可能是由冰川规模的差异引起。海螺沟、燕子沟、磨子沟和大贡巴冰川末端分别退缩约1146±42.7m、725±42.7m、502±42.7m和1002±42.7m m。东朝向冰川的面积退缩率最大(25.5%),东南朝向冰川的退缩率最小(7.2%)。中值高度超过5700m的冰川面积退缩率最大(15.2%),其次是5100～5300m的冰川(14.4%)。坡度为30-35°的冰川面积退缩最快(15.5%),25～30°的冰川退缩率最慢。1～5km2的冰川面积退缩率最大(34.8%),其次是>10km2的冰川(26.8%),<0.5km2的冰川退缩率最小。近43年中,6个时段(1966、1974、1989、1994、2005和2009年)冰川的退缩速率又有所差异,其中2005-2009年面积退缩速率最大(1.3km2/yr),其次是1989～1994年(0.8km2/yr),而1994～2005年最小(0.4km2/yr)。
3)花杆观测数据显示,燕子沟冰川冰舌段,消融期平均日消融深为3.25cm,年消融深为424cm,最大消融出现在海拔3800～3900m。海螺沟冰川冰舌段的冰面消融,较燕子沟冰川要强,最大值出现在3200～3500m,且消融有近期加速的趋势。西坡的大、小贡巴冰川冰舌段冰面的消融强度相对较小。贡嘎山地区冰川冰舌段冰面消融总趋势为：东坡大于西坡,消融区海拔较低的冰川大于海拔较高的冰川,且最大值通常不是出现在冰川末端。
4)燕子沟冰川花杆的GPS测量数据显示,冰舌区平均年运动速度为41.7m/yr,最大为49m/yr,出现于海拔约3950m处；消融期平均运动速度为0.31m/d。与已有观测数据对比,燕子沟冰川运动速度近期略增,但远小于海螺沟冰川(41～205m/yr),而大于西坡大贡巴冰川(33m/yr)和小贡巴冰川(36m/yr),且它们冰面运动速度最大值都出现于消融区的上端。
5)不同时期冰川冰舌段(距离末端约3～4km) DEM差值的结果表明,1966～2009年海螺沟、燕子沟和大贡巴冰川消融区平均减薄速率分别为1.23±0.55、1.02±0.55和0.93±0.55m/yr；相应的体积减小0.076、0.073和0.057km3。1966～1989年3条冰川的高程及体积变化速率远小于1989～2009年的变化。
6)初步探讨冰川对气候变化的响应。a)近50年来,横断山地区与青藏高原具有相似的气候变化趋势,以增温为主,降水量略有增加。根据贡嘎山西坡九龙气象站数据计算,19662009年,该区域气温升高率为0.18℃/10a,而降水量增加不足1%。基于冰川敏感性模型可推断出,降水的增加量难以弥补气温升高引起的冰川消融量,导致该地区的冰川长期处于负物质平衡状态,进而引起冰川的大规模的消融退缩。多时段冰川面积与年平均气温、降水的对比,发现气温逐渐升高,冰川面积逐渐变小；而冰川面积退缩速率与相应时段的年平均降水的量也有较好的对应关系,即在气温升高的背景下,总降水量大时,冰川退缩速率小,总降水量小时,冰川退缩速率大。b)贡嘎山地区规模在1～5km2的冰川退缩速率最大,更大面积的冰川次之,而面积<0.5km2的冰川退缩速率最小。这一规律表明规模较小冰川对气候变化较为敏感,但面积<0.5km2的冰川因受地形保护影响较大而不能作为反映气候变化的指示器。c)气温升高幅度和表碛覆盖厚度是导致1966～1989年与1989～2009年两个时段三条观测冰川,以及东坡与西坡冰川减薄速率差异的主要因素。d)三条观测冰川坡度和末端高度的不同是导致其冰川运动速度差异的主要原因。冰川的变化不仅受气候因子的控制,也受到地形、冰川规模和类型等因素的影响。
Glaciers are a critical component of the earth system and the present accelerated melting and retreat of glaciers has severe impacts on the environment and human well-being, including vegetation patterns, economic livelihood, natural disasters, and water-energy supplies. Changes of glaciers in mountainous regions are widely recognized as one of the best natural indicators of global climate change, and the decline in glacier extent in mountains and other regions contributes to sea level rise. The glaciers in the west of China are not only an important supply of the numerous rivers, but also a large solid freshwater resource, which affect the life of peoples of the western dry region. With the contex of global warming, most of glaciers in China are retreating and the glacier retreat is more aggravately after1980s. The glacier retreat will affect the runoff of rivers and also brings a tremendous impact on the sustainable development of arid regions in western China. Hunce, the new glacier inventory of China is a necessary work.
In order to monitor the changes of the glaciers in the Gongga Mountain region on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, monsoonal temperate glaciers were investigated by comparing the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI), recorded in the1960s, with Landsat MSS in1974, Landsat TM in1989,1994,2005, and ASTER data in2009. The remote sensing data have been applied to map the glacier outline by threshold ratio images (TM4/TM5). Moreover, the glacier outlines were verified by GPS survey on four large glaciers (Hailuogou, Mozigou, Yanzigou, and Dagongba) in2009. The results show that the area dominated by the76glaciers has shrunk by11.3%(29.2km2) from1966to2009. Glacier area on the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains decreased by15.2km2(9.8%since1966) and15km2(14.6%since1966), respectively. The loss in glacier area and length is respectively0.8km2and1146m (26.7m/yr) for the Hailuogou glacier,2.1km2and502m (11.7m/yr) for the Mozigou Glacier,0.8km2and725m (16.9m/yr) for the Yanzigou Glacier, and2.4Wand1002m (23.3m/yr) for the Dagongba Glacier.
Glacier size strongly affects the percentage loss in glacier area. From1966to2009, the area loss in the size classes <0.5km2,0.5～1km2,1～5km2,5～10km2, and>10km2, equals6.3%,10.8%,34.8%,21.3%and26.8%, respectively. The shrinkage of the glaciers in the size class of1～5km2contributes to about1/3of the total area loss. In comparing glaciers changes with altitude, the glaciers area loss in the altitude5100～5300m and>5700m is larger than the glaciers in others altitude. The mean slope of all glaciers in this region ranges from15°to45°, and glaciers with the mean slope of15～20°and35～40°(covering an area of37.9%in1966) exhibit the largest shrinkage. The area loss of glaciers with the mean slope of25～30°is the smallest than others slopes. The shrinkage of these glaciers in northwest and east orientation is stronger than others aspects in this region and the glaciers in southeast orientation keep a smallest shrinkage.
When the glaciers are grouped according to size classes (according to their CGI area), it shows that glaciers in area of1～5km2had a more notable reduction in area than other sizes of glaciers. Although two small glaciers have vanished, the glaciers retreat with area<0.5km2is the slowest. The small glacier is more sensitive to the climate changes but the glacier with area <0.5km2is poorly coupled to the regional climate because of the local topographic setting. Furthermore, although the change of small glacier can be protected by local topographic setting, two smallest glaciers have vanished in the Gongga Mountains. This may be explained that the glacier is too small to a consistent accumulation zones.The rate of glacier area loss with median altitude>5700m is the largest, and the second is the median altitude5100-5300m. The glacier retreat become weaker with the increased slope until30°, and the rate of glacier retreat was similar when the slope exceeds30°. The glaciers with east, northwest and south orientation have an obvious shrinkage. Although we can not find systematically changes of glacier retreating correlating to topographic factors, the glacier size, slope and aspect would probably influence the rate of glacier retreating in the Gongga Mountains.
The DEM data was generated from dual-frequency differential GPS (GPS) data surveyed in2009combined with DEM from aerial photographs acquired in1966and1989. The results show that the mean elevation changes from1966to2009of ablation area are-1.23±0.55,-1.02±0.55and-0.93±0.55m/yr in Hailuogou, Yanzigou (east slope) and Dagongba Glacier (west slope), respectively. In consequence, all the three glaciers in ablation areas show decreasing trends with volume reduction of0.076,0.073and0.054km3, for Hailuogou, Yanzigou and Dagongba Glacier, respectively. The shrankage of glacier elevation and volume in the period of1966-1989is weaker than that in1989-2009. The glacier ablation of YZG glacier is about3.25cm/day in the summer and the average ablation is about424cm/yr. The maximum ablation of YZG Glacier is at an altitude of3800-3900m not at the glacier terminus. Compared with other glaciers, the ablation of YZG Glacier is stronger than DGB Glacier (271cm/yr) but weaker than HLG Glacier (582cm/yr). Ice velocities measured by DGPS at32fixed stakes implanted in the ablation area increase with distance from the glacier terminus, ranging from38m/yr approaching the glacier terminus to a maximum of49m/yr at the head of ablation area.
Decades of climate records obtained from three meteorological stations in the Gongga Mountains were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the temperature and precipitation on glacier retreat. During1966-2009, the mean annual temperature over the eastern and western slope of the Gongga Mountains has been increasing by0.34℃/decade and0.24℃/decade (1988～2009), respectively. Moreover, mean annual precipitation was only increasing1%in past50years. This evidence indicates that the warming of the climate is probably responsible for the glacier retreat in the study region. Compared the mean temperature with mean retreat rate of glaciers, the retreat rate is not related in a clear way to the mean temperature, while the mean precipitation shows a well corresponding relation with the retreat rate of glaciers. When the mean precipitation is high, the retreat rate of glacier is slow, and vice versa. The glacier retreat in the Gongga Mountains is similar to the same glacier type but faster than continental glaciers type in the west of China. However, we have procured many significative and interesting results. Many open questions still need to be solved (e.g. spatial resolution of remote sensing images; the different of fieldwork; accuracies of glacier mapping). In the future, the monitoring of the glacier changes will be a long-time and hard work, especially for alpine glaciers.
引文
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