发电厂并网运行安全性评价方法研究
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摘要
现行的发电厂并网运行安全评价方法主要是打分法,这种方法存在一定的局限,不能揭示风险发生的可能性、量化标准不准确、分数意义不明确等等。
安全评价的方法多种多样,各种方法有各自的特点和适用范围,在选用时应根据评价对象的实际情况、特点和评价目标,慎重地选择。本文选取一种长期以来一直应用于核能、航空航天等领域的评价方法——概率安全评价(PSA),尝试对发电厂并网的安全性进行评价。
应用概率安全评价(PSA)这一评价方法的重要基础是可靠性基础数据的统计与分析。本文在统计我国电力可靠性管理中心历年来发布的大量数据基础上,计算得到我国主要发输电系统元件最近5年的平均可靠性指标,结合计算结果对我国电力系统可靠性现状进行分析,以满足电网安全评价中对可靠性数据的需求。
本文在介绍PSA相关理论、工具与方法的基础上,将成熟的PSA理论应用到发电厂并网安全评价实践中。证明运用概率安全评价这一方法对发电厂并网进行安全性评价是可行的和有效的,对帮助电网生命周期的各个阶段的安全管理和决策、实现安全运行目标都具有重要意义。
The existing security assessment method of power plant’s parallel operation is the scoring method, this method has certain limitations, it can not indicate the likelihood of risk, quantitative criteria is inaccurate, the meaning of the score is ambiguous and so on.
Safety assessment methods are varied. Each method has its own characteristics and application range. We should be careful when we selected Safety assessment methods according to the actual situation, characteristics and objectives of the evaluation object. This paper selects the assessment method - probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) which has long been used in nuclear power, aerospace and other fields, try to evaluate the safety of the power plant’s parallel operation.
Application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is based on the statistics and analysis for the basic data of reliability. This paper calculated average reliability index of major transmission system components for recent five years based on the statistical large amounts of data released by Electric Power Reliability Management Center over the years in China. This paper analyzed the status of power system reliability with the calculated results to meet the demand for the reliability data of power plant’s parallel security assessment.
The mature PSA theory was applied to power plant’s parallel security assessment based on the introduction of the theory, tools and methods of PSA in this paper. It was feasible and effective to evaluate the safety of power plant used probabilistic safety assessment method. It was great significant to help manage security, make decision and achieve the goals of safe operation at all stages of life cycle of power plant’s parallel operation.
安全评价的方法多种多样,各种方法有各自的特点和适用范围,在选用时应根据评价对象的实际情况、特点和评价目标,慎重地选择。本文选取一种长期以来一直应用于核能、航空航天等领域的评价方法——概率安全评价(PSA),尝试对发电厂并网的安全性进行评价。
应用概率安全评价(PSA)这一评价方法的重要基础是可靠性基础数据的统计与分析。本文在统计我国电力可靠性管理中心历年来发布的大量数据基础上,计算得到我国主要发输电系统元件最近5年的平均可靠性指标,结合计算结果对我国电力系统可靠性现状进行分析,以满足电网安全评价中对可靠性数据的需求。
本文在介绍PSA相关理论、工具与方法的基础上,将成熟的PSA理论应用到发电厂并网安全评价实践中。证明运用概率安全评价这一方法对发电厂并网进行安全性评价是可行的和有效的,对帮助电网生命周期的各个阶段的安全管理和决策、实现安全运行目标都具有重要意义。
The existing security assessment method of power plant’s parallel operation is the scoring method, this method has certain limitations, it can not indicate the likelihood of risk, quantitative criteria is inaccurate, the meaning of the score is ambiguous and so on.
Safety assessment methods are varied. Each method has its own characteristics and application range. We should be careful when we selected Safety assessment methods according to the actual situation, characteristics and objectives of the evaluation object. This paper selects the assessment method - probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) which has long been used in nuclear power, aerospace and other fields, try to evaluate the safety of the power plant’s parallel operation.
Application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is based on the statistics and analysis for the basic data of reliability. This paper calculated average reliability index of major transmission system components for recent five years based on the statistical large amounts of data released by Electric Power Reliability Management Center over the years in China. This paper analyzed the status of power system reliability with the calculated results to meet the demand for the reliability data of power plant’s parallel security assessment.
The mature PSA theory was applied to power plant’s parallel security assessment based on the introduction of the theory, tools and methods of PSA in this paper. It was feasible and effective to evaluate the safety of power plant used probabilistic safety assessment method. It was great significant to help manage security, make decision and achieve the goals of safe operation at all stages of life cycle of power plant’s parallel operation.
引文
[1]国家电网公司.发电厂并网运行安全性评价[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003,9:9-10
[2] Koonce AM, Apostolakis GE, Cook BK. Bulk power grid risk analysis: ranking infrastructure elements according to their risk significance, ESD-WP-2006-19,Engineering Systems Division. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press; 2006.
[3] Carreras BA, Lynch VE, Dobson I, Newman DE. Critical points and transitions in an electric power transmission model for cascading failure blackouts.
[4] Volkanovski A, Mavko B, BosevskiT, Causevski A, Cepin M. Genetic algorithmˇoptimisation of the maintenance scheduling of generating units in a power system. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2008;93(6):779–89.
[5] IEEE Gold Book, IEEE Recommended practice for the design of reliable industrial and commercial power system. ANSI/IEEE Std. 493-2007, 2007.
[6] Save P. Substation reliability—practical application and system approach. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 1995;10(1):380–6.
[7] Awosope COA, Akinbulire TO. A computer program for generating power-system load-point minimal paths. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1991;40(3):302–8.
[8] Patterson SA, Apostolakis GE. Identification of critical locations across multiple infrastructures for terrorist actions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2007;92(9):1183–203.
[9] Zio E, Podofillini L, Zille V. A combination of Monte Carlo simulation and cellular automata for computing the availability of complex network systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2006;91:181–90.
[10] Yishan L. Short-term and long-term reliability studies in deregulated power system. Doctoral dissertation, Texas A&M University, 2005. p. 155+4.
[11] Ran M. Deterministic/probabilistic evaluation in composite system planning. Master thesis,University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2003. p. 124+35.
[12] Yifeng L. Bulk system reliability evaluation in a deregulated power industry. Master thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2003. p. 142+45.
[13] Rajesh UN. Incorporating substation and switching station related outages in composite system reliability evaluation. Master thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2003. p. 91+25.
[14] Hua C. Generating system reliability optimization. Doctoral dissertation, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2000. p. 160.
[15] Billinton R, Wangdee W. Delivery point reliability indices of a bulk electric system using sequential Monte Carlo simulation. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 2006;21(1):345–52.
[16] Wenyuan L, Jiping L. Risk evaluation of combinative transmission network and substation configurations and its applicationin substation planning. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2005;20(2):1144–50.
[17] Galyean WJ, Fowler RD, Close JA, Donley ME. Case study: reliability of the INEL—site powersystem. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1989;38(3): 279–84.
[18] Hessian RT, Salter BB, Goodwin EF. Fault-tree analysis for system design, development, modification, and verification. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1990;39(1):87–91.
[19] Haarla L. A method for analysing the reliability of a transmission grid. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2008;93(2):277–87.
[20] Pottonen L. A method for the probabilistic security analysis of transmission grids. Doctoral dissertation, Helsinki University of Technology, 2005. p. 119+88.
[21]姚建刚,肖辉耀,章建.电力安全评估与管理[M].中国电力出版社,2009,2:150-156
[22]隋鹏程、陈宝智、隋旭.安全原理[M].化学工业出版社,2008,8:372-375
[23]景国勋、施式亮等.系统安全评价与预测[M].中国矿业大学出版社,2009,8:212
[24]丁道齐.复杂大电网安全性分析[M].中国电力出版社,2010,2:249-251
[25]中国电力可靠性管理中心.2009年电力可靠性指标发布—电力可靠性趋势分析报告.2009.
[26] Ringlee R,Chmn,Paul Albert ,etc. Bulk Power system reliability criteria and indices Trends and future needs. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1994,9(l):181-190.
[27] DL/T793一2003发电设备可靠性评价规程.中华人民共和国经济贸易委员会,2003
[28] DL/T989一2005直流输电系统可靠性统计评价规程.中华人民共和国发展和改革委员会,2005.
[29] A report prepared by the Reliability Test System Task Force of the Application Of Probability Methods Subcommittee. The IEEE reliability test system—1996.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 1999;14(3):1010–20.
[30] Allan RN, Billinton R. Reliability assessment of large electric power systems.Boston: Kluwer; 1988.
[31] Rasmussen N, et al. Reactor safety study. WASH-1400, US NRC, Washington,1975.
[32] Standard for Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plant Applica-tions, ASME RA-S-2002, 2002.
[33] Volkanovski A, Cepin M, Mavko B. Power system reliability analysis usingˇfault trees.In:Proceedings, International conference on nuclear energy for New Europe, Portoroˇ, 2006. p. 704.1–10.
[2] Koonce AM, Apostolakis GE, Cook BK. Bulk power grid risk analysis: ranking infrastructure elements according to their risk significance, ESD-WP-2006-19,Engineering Systems Division. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press; 2006.
[3] Carreras BA, Lynch VE, Dobson I, Newman DE. Critical points and transitions in an electric power transmission model for cascading failure blackouts.
[4] Volkanovski A, Mavko B, BosevskiT, Causevski A, Cepin M. Genetic algorithmˇoptimisation of the maintenance scheduling of generating units in a power system. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2008;93(6):779–89.
[5] IEEE Gold Book, IEEE Recommended practice for the design of reliable industrial and commercial power system. ANSI/IEEE Std. 493-2007, 2007.
[6] Save P. Substation reliability—practical application and system approach. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 1995;10(1):380–6.
[7] Awosope COA, Akinbulire TO. A computer program for generating power-system load-point minimal paths. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1991;40(3):302–8.
[8] Patterson SA, Apostolakis GE. Identification of critical locations across multiple infrastructures for terrorist actions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2007;92(9):1183–203.
[9] Zio E, Podofillini L, Zille V. A combination of Monte Carlo simulation and cellular automata for computing the availability of complex network systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2006;91:181–90.
[10] Yishan L. Short-term and long-term reliability studies in deregulated power system. Doctoral dissertation, Texas A&M University, 2005. p. 155+4.
[11] Ran M. Deterministic/probabilistic evaluation in composite system planning. Master thesis,University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2003. p. 124+35.
[12] Yifeng L. Bulk system reliability evaluation in a deregulated power industry. Master thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2003. p. 142+45.
[13] Rajesh UN. Incorporating substation and switching station related outages in composite system reliability evaluation. Master thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2003. p. 91+25.
[14] Hua C. Generating system reliability optimization. Doctoral dissertation, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2000. p. 160.
[15] Billinton R, Wangdee W. Delivery point reliability indices of a bulk electric system using sequential Monte Carlo simulation. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 2006;21(1):345–52.
[16] Wenyuan L, Jiping L. Risk evaluation of combinative transmission network and substation configurations and its applicationin substation planning. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2005;20(2):1144–50.
[17] Galyean WJ, Fowler RD, Close JA, Donley ME. Case study: reliability of the INEL—site powersystem. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1989;38(3): 279–84.
[18] Hessian RT, Salter BB, Goodwin EF. Fault-tree analysis for system design, development, modification, and verification. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1990;39(1):87–91.
[19] Haarla L. A method for analysing the reliability of a transmission grid. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2008;93(2):277–87.
[20] Pottonen L. A method for the probabilistic security analysis of transmission grids. Doctoral dissertation, Helsinki University of Technology, 2005. p. 119+88.
[21]姚建刚,肖辉耀,章建.电力安全评估与管理[M].中国电力出版社,2009,2:150-156
[22]隋鹏程、陈宝智、隋旭.安全原理[M].化学工业出版社,2008,8:372-375
[23]景国勋、施式亮等.系统安全评价与预测[M].中国矿业大学出版社,2009,8:212
[24]丁道齐.复杂大电网安全性分析[M].中国电力出版社,2010,2:249-251
[25]中国电力可靠性管理中心.2009年电力可靠性指标发布—电力可靠性趋势分析报告.2009.
[26] Ringlee R,Chmn,Paul Albert ,etc. Bulk Power system reliability criteria and indices Trends and future needs. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1994,9(l):181-190.
[27] DL/T793一2003发电设备可靠性评价规程.中华人民共和国经济贸易委员会,2003
[28] DL/T989一2005直流输电系统可靠性统计评价规程.中华人民共和国发展和改革委员会,2005.
[29] A report prepared by the Reliability Test System Task Force of the Application Of Probability Methods Subcommittee. The IEEE reliability test system—1996.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 1999;14(3):1010–20.
[30] Allan RN, Billinton R. Reliability assessment of large electric power systems.Boston: Kluwer; 1988.
[31] Rasmussen N, et al. Reactor safety study. WASH-1400, US NRC, Washington,1975.
[32] Standard for Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plant Applica-tions, ASME RA-S-2002, 2002.
[33] Volkanovski A, Cepin M, Mavko B. Power system reliability analysis usingˇfault trees.In:Proceedings, International conference on nuclear energy for New Europe, Portoroˇ, 2006. p. 704.1–10.