集体林权改革对中国木材供给的影响研究
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摘要
木材的有效供给关系到国家木材安全和国民经济的健康稳定发展。目前，中国的森林资源状况和林业政策限制了国内木材的生产能力，而经济持续增长引致了木材需求的高涨，这使得中国正面临着木材短缺的挑战。
在这种局面下，进口成为了中国木材供给的重要来源。然而，由于气候变化、木材非法贸易等原因，中国木材进口日益成为国际社会向中国政府施压的工具。这使得中国政府决心立足国内解决木材供需的矛盾。从2003年开始的集体林权改革被视为政府解决木材供需矛盾的举措之一。随着集体林权改革的进程加快，它会对中国的木材生产带来什么样的影响，成为了关系国家木材安全和国民经济健康稳定发展的重要课题。
本文的研究目标是评价集体林权改革对中国木材生产的效应，并预测其对中国未来木材供给和木材供需缺口可能带来的影响，特别关注了不同的政策手段在解决木材供需矛盾中可能起到的作用。本文的研究意义在于，为政府通过行政手段调节木材供需矛盾提供了有益的思路。
基于上述目标，本文首先对中国木材供给进行了统计性分析。之后尝试从理论上阐述集体林权改革会促进中国木材生产的原因。紧接着，本文利用1990年到2009年25个省、市、自治区的面板数据，实证检验了集体林权改革的效应。最后，利用计量分析的结论和全球林产品模型（Global Forest Products Model，GFPM），对中国木材市场未来的走势进行了多种情景下的预测。主要结论如下。
第一，从理论上来说，集体林权改革能够解决集体森所有者和经营决策者的分离、集体森林的经营决策者所面临的较高的产权实施成本、集体森林经营决策者在最优化目标函数时受到的采伐限额约束、集体森林经营决策者与实施者的分离等四方面阻碍森林处在最优利用状态下的问题，从而促进集体森林处在最优利用的状态之下，进而提高其质量和蓄积水平，促进木材的生产。这正是集体林权改革促进中国木材生产的作用渠道和经济学机理。
第二，计量回归的结果显示，集体林权改革对中国木材生产具有正向的促进作用，其效应约为12%，但是在10%的统计水平上不显著。从作用渠道上来说是因为，集体林权改革的时间较短，其对森林资源的促进作用尚不显著，因此，其对木材生产的促进作用也未显著地表现出来。
第三，计量回归的结果显示，木材价格、木材生产过程中的劳动力成本等市场因素都显著地（1%）影响着中国的木材生产，二者的弹性分别为0.80和-0.51。这符合中国自上世纪八十年代中期开始进行木材市场化改革的事实，也与同类的国际研究结论相符合。尽管市场机制起着重要的作用，中国的木材市场依然受制于政府的指令性控制，木材的采伐限额和天然林保护工程对中国的木材生产都具有显著性（1%）的影响。这也说明了中国木材生产的特殊性，它是市场和政府相互作用的产物。
第四，GFPM的预测结果显示，如果集体林权改革促进中国木材生产增加20%（10%），并且该效应在2020年前后发挥出来的话，2030年的中国木材供需缺口将减少18%（8.5%）。如果中国GDP的增速从约7%降低为5%的话，2030年中国木材供需缺口将减少31%，这反映出需求因素是中国木材供需缺口的主导因素。如果中国森林出材率从2006年的0.6逐步提高到2030年的0.77，2030年中国木材供需缺口将减少11%，这反映出木材节约代用策略的可行性。
根据以上结论，中国政府试图通过集体林权改革来缓解木材供需缺口的思路是可行的。但是，目前该效应尚未发挥出来。因此，如何保证其效应发挥出来，并且尽可能大的发挥出来，成为了政府下一步要着力解决的问题。同时，仅仅依靠集体林权改革并不足以解决木材供需矛盾，因为该缺口是由需求因素主导的。因此，出台针对需求层面的措施，引导消费倾向，是必然的选择。考虑到集体林权改革效应的有限，以及政府介入需求层面可能相对困难，因此，寻找其它可行方法是政府需要考虑的问题。木材节约代用是一个可行的战略，政府应该确保其措施能够落到实处。
Timber supply is one of the crucial factors that would influence China’s economicdevelopment. For China, the recent shift of forest policies from resource exploitation toprotection has contributed to a further reduction of domestic timber supply potential, alreadytightly constrained by historical overharvesting and by the low productivity and inappropriate agestructure of existing forests. However, China’s demand for timber keeps surging, driven by itsrapid economic growth. The limited domestic supply and insatiable demand make China heavilydepend on timber import. This in turn is regarded as a main reason of ecological degradation inthe Asia-Pacific region, especially on the view of climate change and illegal harvest.
Faced on the blame from international society, Chinese government is addressing this issuewith the tenure reform on collective forests, and among others. To stimulate forest management,revitalize the forest sector and improve forest farmers’ livelihood, the Chinese governmentlaunched a nationwide forestland reform in2003, designed to give individual farmer some secureand transferable rights to currently collective forest. The government also eagerly expected thereform could increase timber supply based on the belief that the reform would improve themanagement intensities of forest. Therefore, what was the effect of the reform on China’s timbersupply and shortage became important and interesting.
The objective of the present research was to investigate the effect of the tenure reform onChina’s timber supply. Furthermore, we focused on what China’s future forest sector would looklike under the tenure reform on collective forests. Special attention was given to the role of thetenure reform on collective forests in China’s timber shortage.
The paper was organized as below. Firstly, we analyzed the situation of the China’s timbersupply, including domestic production and imports. Secondly, we proposed why the reform canincrease China’s timber supply theoretically and demonstrated the economic channels. Thirdly,using a25provincial panel data, we examined whether the reform had increased China’s timbersupply. Finally, with the econometric estimation and Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), wesimulated what the long-term timber production and shortage would be under the effects ofChina’s tenure reform. The conclusions were as follows.
Firstly, the reason why the tenure reform would have positive effect on China’s timbersupply was the tenure reform would have positive effect on China’s forest. Theoretically, thereform would help to resolve the discrimination between the owner of the forests and thedecision maker of the forests, the high enforcement cost on collective forests, the restrictedobjective function and the discrimination between the decision maker of the forests and themanager of the forests. Therefore, it can be expected that timber production would also increasegiven the forest switch from non optimal management to optimal management. This is the economic channel of how the reform would have the positive effect on timber supply.
Secondly, the econometric analysis showed that, the tenure reform on collective forests haveincreased China’s timber supply by12%, where and when it has been implemented, keepingothers being equal. However, this effect was not significant in10%level. Therefore, based on thecurrent data, the reform has not increased timber supply significantly. This empirical results wasresulted from the fact that, the reform has not increased forests significantly, hence has notincreased timber supply significantly, since the reform was implemented in recent years and therewas no enough time to expose the reform’s effect.
Thirdly, the econometric analysis showed that, timber price and labor cost were thesignificant factors that influenced China’s timber supply. Their elasticities were0.80and-0.51respectively, and significant at1%level. Compared to the international studies on this topic,these values were consistent with most economists’ thoughts. These results implied that China’stimber supply was indeed influenced by market factors, although it was also controlled by thegovernment, since the econometric analysis showed that, harvesting quota and Natural ForestsProtection Program also influenced the timber supply at1%level. This was the feature of China’stimber supply, which influenced by both markets and government.
Fourthly, under the assumption that, the effects of China’s tenure reform would expose inaround2020with the effects of10%or20%, GFPM projection showed that, China’s timbershortage would decrease by18%or8.5%, depending on the effects of the reform. If the GDPgrowth rate decreased from7.63%to5%, the timber shortage would decrease by31%in2030compared to the case with high GDP growth rate. This implied that, the demand side was thedominant factor in determining the timber shortage. If the ratio of drain to harvest changed from0.6in2060to0.77in2030, then China’s industrial roundwood shortage would decrease by11%compared to case where the ratio kept0.6all the time. Therefore, the results showed thefeasibility of “Timber Saving and Substitution” policy.
Based on the above econometric and prediction results, the present research supported thefeasibility of the government’s policies, which intend to mitigate the timber shortage by thetenure reform on collective forests. What should be recognized is the effect of the reform has notbeen exposed yet. So how to guarantee the exposure of the reform effect by policies interventionis the next step the government should and have to work on. However, the government shouldrealize that even though with the tenure reform, China’s timber shortage would be still very large,since the effects from the demand side. Therefore, to take some new policies, relevant to thedemand side, may be a good prescription, although it was much more difficult to be implemented.In addition, the “Timber Saving and Substitution” policy should be another feasible approach tomitigate the timber shortage, and should be implemented further.
在这种局面下，进口成为了中国木材供给的重要来源。然而，由于气候变化、木材非法贸易等原因，中国木材进口日益成为国际社会向中国政府施压的工具。这使得中国政府决心立足国内解决木材供需的矛盾。从2003年开始的集体林权改革被视为政府解决木材供需矛盾的举措之一。随着集体林权改革的进程加快，它会对中国的木材生产带来什么样的影响，成为了关系国家木材安全和国民经济健康稳定发展的重要课题。
本文的研究目标是评价集体林权改革对中国木材生产的效应，并预测其对中国未来木材供给和木材供需缺口可能带来的影响，特别关注了不同的政策手段在解决木材供需矛盾中可能起到的作用。本文的研究意义在于，为政府通过行政手段调节木材供需矛盾提供了有益的思路。
基于上述目标，本文首先对中国木材供给进行了统计性分析。之后尝试从理论上阐述集体林权改革会促进中国木材生产的原因。紧接着，本文利用1990年到2009年25个省、市、自治区的面板数据，实证检验了集体林权改革的效应。最后，利用计量分析的结论和全球林产品模型（Global Forest Products Model，GFPM），对中国木材市场未来的走势进行了多种情景下的预测。主要结论如下。
第一，从理论上来说，集体林权改革能够解决集体森所有者和经营决策者的分离、集体森林的经营决策者所面临的较高的产权实施成本、集体森林经营决策者在最优化目标函数时受到的采伐限额约束、集体森林经营决策者与实施者的分离等四方面阻碍森林处在最优利用状态下的问题，从而促进集体森林处在最优利用的状态之下，进而提高其质量和蓄积水平，促进木材的生产。这正是集体林权改革促进中国木材生产的作用渠道和经济学机理。
第二，计量回归的结果显示，集体林权改革对中国木材生产具有正向的促进作用，其效应约为12%，但是在10%的统计水平上不显著。从作用渠道上来说是因为，集体林权改革的时间较短，其对森林资源的促进作用尚不显著，因此，其对木材生产的促进作用也未显著地表现出来。
第三，计量回归的结果显示，木材价格、木材生产过程中的劳动力成本等市场因素都显著地（1%）影响着中国的木材生产，二者的弹性分别为0.80和-0.51。这符合中国自上世纪八十年代中期开始进行木材市场化改革的事实，也与同类的国际研究结论相符合。尽管市场机制起着重要的作用，中国的木材市场依然受制于政府的指令性控制，木材的采伐限额和天然林保护工程对中国的木材生产都具有显著性（1%）的影响。这也说明了中国木材生产的特殊性，它是市场和政府相互作用的产物。
第四，GFPM的预测结果显示，如果集体林权改革促进中国木材生产增加20%（10%），并且该效应在2020年前后发挥出来的话，2030年的中国木材供需缺口将减少18%（8.5%）。如果中国GDP的增速从约7%降低为5%的话，2030年中国木材供需缺口将减少31%，这反映出需求因素是中国木材供需缺口的主导因素。如果中国森林出材率从2006年的0.6逐步提高到2030年的0.77，2030年中国木材供需缺口将减少11%，这反映出木材节约代用策略的可行性。
根据以上结论，中国政府试图通过集体林权改革来缓解木材供需缺口的思路是可行的。但是，目前该效应尚未发挥出来。因此，如何保证其效应发挥出来，并且尽可能大的发挥出来，成为了政府下一步要着力解决的问题。同时，仅仅依靠集体林权改革并不足以解决木材供需矛盾，因为该缺口是由需求因素主导的。因此，出台针对需求层面的措施，引导消费倾向，是必然的选择。考虑到集体林权改革效应的有限，以及政府介入需求层面可能相对困难，因此，寻找其它可行方法是政府需要考虑的问题。木材节约代用是一个可行的战略，政府应该确保其措施能够落到实处。
Timber supply is one of the crucial factors that would influence China’s economicdevelopment. For China, the recent shift of forest policies from resource exploitation toprotection has contributed to a further reduction of domestic timber supply potential, alreadytightly constrained by historical overharvesting and by the low productivity and inappropriate agestructure of existing forests. However, China’s demand for timber keeps surging, driven by itsrapid economic growth. The limited domestic supply and insatiable demand make China heavilydepend on timber import. This in turn is regarded as a main reason of ecological degradation inthe Asia-Pacific region, especially on the view of climate change and illegal harvest.
Faced on the blame from international society, Chinese government is addressing this issuewith the tenure reform on collective forests, and among others. To stimulate forest management,revitalize the forest sector and improve forest farmers’ livelihood, the Chinese governmentlaunched a nationwide forestland reform in2003, designed to give individual farmer some secureand transferable rights to currently collective forest. The government also eagerly expected thereform could increase timber supply based on the belief that the reform would improve themanagement intensities of forest. Therefore, what was the effect of the reform on China’s timbersupply and shortage became important and interesting.
The objective of the present research was to investigate the effect of the tenure reform onChina’s timber supply. Furthermore, we focused on what China’s future forest sector would looklike under the tenure reform on collective forests. Special attention was given to the role of thetenure reform on collective forests in China’s timber shortage.
The paper was organized as below. Firstly, we analyzed the situation of the China’s timbersupply, including domestic production and imports. Secondly, we proposed why the reform canincrease China’s timber supply theoretically and demonstrated the economic channels. Thirdly,using a25provincial panel data, we examined whether the reform had increased China’s timbersupply. Finally, with the econometric estimation and Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), wesimulated what the long-term timber production and shortage would be under the effects ofChina’s tenure reform. The conclusions were as follows.
Firstly, the reason why the tenure reform would have positive effect on China’s timbersupply was the tenure reform would have positive effect on China’s forest. Theoretically, thereform would help to resolve the discrimination between the owner of the forests and thedecision maker of the forests, the high enforcement cost on collective forests, the restrictedobjective function and the discrimination between the decision maker of the forests and themanager of the forests. Therefore, it can be expected that timber production would also increasegiven the forest switch from non optimal management to optimal management. This is the economic channel of how the reform would have the positive effect on timber supply.
Secondly, the econometric analysis showed that, the tenure reform on collective forests haveincreased China’s timber supply by12%, where and when it has been implemented, keepingothers being equal. However, this effect was not significant in10%level. Therefore, based on thecurrent data, the reform has not increased timber supply significantly. This empirical results wasresulted from the fact that, the reform has not increased forests significantly, hence has notincreased timber supply significantly, since the reform was implemented in recent years and therewas no enough time to expose the reform’s effect.
Thirdly, the econometric analysis showed that, timber price and labor cost were thesignificant factors that influenced China’s timber supply. Their elasticities were0.80and-0.51respectively, and significant at1%level. Compared to the international studies on this topic,these values were consistent with most economists’ thoughts. These results implied that China’stimber supply was indeed influenced by market factors, although it was also controlled by thegovernment, since the econometric analysis showed that, harvesting quota and Natural ForestsProtection Program also influenced the timber supply at1%level. This was the feature of China’stimber supply, which influenced by both markets and government.
Fourthly, under the assumption that, the effects of China’s tenure reform would expose inaround2020with the effects of10%or20%, GFPM projection showed that, China’s timbershortage would decrease by18%or8.5%, depending on the effects of the reform. If the GDPgrowth rate decreased from7.63%to5%, the timber shortage would decrease by31%in2030compared to the case with high GDP growth rate. This implied that, the demand side was thedominant factor in determining the timber shortage. If the ratio of drain to harvest changed from0.6in2060to0.77in2030, then China’s industrial roundwood shortage would decrease by11%compared to case where the ratio kept0.6all the time. Therefore, the results showed thefeasibility of “Timber Saving and Substitution” policy.
Based on the above econometric and prediction results, the present research supported thefeasibility of the government’s policies, which intend to mitigate the timber shortage by thetenure reform on collective forests. What should be recognized is the effect of the reform has notbeen exposed yet. So how to guarantee the exposure of the reform effect by policies interventionis the next step the government should and have to work on. However, the government shouldrealize that even though with the tenure reform, China’s timber shortage would be still very large,since the effects from the demand side. Therefore, to take some new policies, relevant to thedemand side, may be a good prescription, although it was much more difficult to be implemented.In addition, the “Timber Saving and Substitution” policy should be another feasible approach tomitigate the timber shortage, and should be implemented further.
引文
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