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跨国公司对中国区域二元经济下产业结构调整的影响
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摘要
改革开放三十多年来,中国经济持续增长,GDP年均增长9.9%,成为世界第二号经济大国。中国经济的这种巨大发展在大多数年份是由东部沿海地区贡献的。东部地区利用自身靠近海岸线等比较优势大力吸引跨国公司来华投资发展加工贸易,利用比较低级的生产要素积极参与全球产品内分工,从事劳动密集型的低端生产、制造、加工、装配、组装环节,由此带来了我国外商直接投资(FDI)和出口贸易的“爆炸式”成长及经济增长的奇迹。
     经济快速增长的同时,中国的劳动力市场出现了“用工荒”、工资上涨等问题。2002年福建、广东等沿海地区的“民工荒”打破了劳动力无限供给的神话,2005年季节性劳动力短缺进一步蔓延到内陆劳动力输出省份。中国的劳动力市场正经历“刘易斯转折点”。同时,东部沿海地区的土地等其它要素的成本也逐渐提高。东部地区发展劳动密集型产业的比较优势正逐渐丧失。这种以低级要素参与全球价值链,以出口导向型的模式发展经济是不可持续的。中国经济增长方式需要转型,产业结构需要调整。
     同时,我们也应该注意到东部地区介入全球价值链的低端环节压制中西部地区发展空间的经济现象。东部地区凭借低级要素参与到全球价值链处在低端环节,造成中西部自然资源和大量的劳动力持续地往东部转移,使中西部地区沦为东部低端要素的供应地,造成中西部和东部之间经济发展的巨大差距。
     本文正是在这样的背景下以分割生产理论和边际产业扩张理论为基础来研究跨国公司对中国区域二元经济下产业结构调整的影响,试图为中国借助跨国公司进行产业结构调整提出可供借鉴的政策建议。关于东部地区产业结构调整问题,本文的研究采用理论模型和经验研究相结合、静态分析和比较静态分析相结合的方法,在一个统一的分析框架下,分析了东道国跨国公司如何攀升全球价值链的机制,并运用现实数据进行了经验分析。关于中西部地区产业结构调整的研究,本文主要采用理论分析和经验研究相结合,分析了跨国公司借助产业转移促进中西部的产业结构调整问题。最后,结合东部和中西部地区的实际情况,本文尝试性地提出东部、中西部及中国整体产业结构调整的路径选择。
     在理论部分,我们首先分析了不同类型的跨国公司和与之对应的产业结构调整方式,混合型跨国公司与分割生产方式对应,出口平台型跨国公司与产业转移对应。然后,我们在异质性贸易理论的基础上构建了非对称国家模型,并将不完全契约理论纳入模型中研究了混合型跨国公司影响东道国产业结构调整的机制;对于中西部的出口平台型直接投资,我们主要研究了边际产业扩张理论在一国内部的适用性问题。其中,混合型跨国公司主要通过沿着产业链攀升来促进产业结构调整;而边际产业扩张理论的应用条件关键在于两地是否存在比较优势。
     在理论模型的基础上,我们分别对跨国公司对中国产业结构调整的影响、跨国公司影响东部产业结构调整的因素、影响东部跨国公司和内资企业向内陆产业转移的因素进行了实证检验。然后,我们利用现实数据对跨国公司服务东部、中西部的方式进行了实证检验,并结合经济发展现状提出了两地区进行产业结构调整的路径选择。最后,我们对跨国公司服务中国整体市场的方式进行了实证检验,并结合东部和中西部的路径选择提出了中国整体产业结构调整的路径选择。
     本文理论部分的结论主要有:在完全契约下,需求的增加会使跨国公司将更多的生产环节安置在母国生产;相反,在不完全契约下,东道国需求的增加会促使跨国公司将更多的生产环节分配在东道国生产;贸易成本增加或者母国工资水平提高时,跨国公司为了节约成本会将更多的生产环节分配到东道国;边际产业扩张理论的基础——比较优势——在大国内部同样存在,但是该理论在一国内部的两地区之间与两国之间应用时存在着不同之处,主要体现在要素的流动性程度和流动性对要素价格的影响。此外,我们还发现跨国公司服务发展中国家市场时,依照其生产率从高到低,会分别选择水平型直接投资、混合型直接投资和出口贸易方式。运输成本、两国相对工人工资水平和市场规模与混合型直接投资量成反比;发展中国家工厂水平固定成本与混合型直接投资成正比。
     本文实证部分的结论主要有:美国跨国公司服务中国东部地区市场以混合型直接投资为主,服务中西部地区以出口平台直接投资为主;不完全契约下,市场需求越大、运输成本越大、工资越低,跨国公司在东部地区生产的环节越多;跨国公司的进入显著促进了中国产业结构调整;人力资本水平越高、资本密度越高和研发投入量越大越有利于产业结构调整;工资水平越高越不利于产业结构调整。东部地区:存在争辩能力时,市场规模会促进该地区产业结构调整;跨国公司所属国的资本密度越高,跨国公司越倾向将更多的生产环节分配在东部地区。中西部地区:基础设施越健全、市场规模越大,跨国公司或内资企业越倾向进行产业转移;工资水平越高,越不利于跨国公司或内资企业进行产业转移;国家西部大开发战略和中部崛起战略显著促进了跨国公司或内资企业的产业转移。
China's economy has grown increasingly faster since the1978introduction of economic reforms. The official statistics show that real gross domestic product (GDP) from1979to2010was growing at an average annual rate of9.9percent, making China one the world's fastest growing economies, the world's second-largest economy. In fact, the east of China, in large part, contributes the China's great economy growth. The east attracts multinational companies to invest in processing trade, and attend the global value chain by the way of OEM, using the low level of factors. Hence, China's firms produce low value-added goods belonging to labour intensive industry using the cheap factors. Those contribute to the fast growth of FDI and Export, and the miracle of economic growth.
     Labor shortage and rising wage appear with economic growth in China's labor market. In2002, rural labor shortages made the myth of unlimited labor supply disappear in the coastal areas. In2005, seasonal labor shortage reached the provinces supplying the labor. Lewis turning point is coming in china's labor market. Meanwhile, the cost of land in east coastal areas is rising gradually. The comparative advantages in labor-intensive industry are gradually disappearing. This pattern of attending the global value chain using the low level of factor, and export-oriented way are unsustainable. The growth of China's economy needs to be changed; industry structure also needs to be changed.
     At the mean time, we noticed the economy phenomenon of the east attending the low level of global value chain compresses the development space of the Midwest. The east is committed in the low level of global value chain. This leads to cheap labor and natural resource in the middle and west flowing to the east. Hence, the Midwest is reduced to one side of supplying low level of factors and the separated area. These result in the development disparity between the East and the Midwest.
     Based on new-new theory and theory of marginal industry expansion, this paper studies the influence of multinational firms on the industry adjustment of the East and the Midwest, and provides some advice about how to adjust industry structure. As to the industry structure adjustment of the East, the paper studies the multinational firms'mechanism of how to climb the global value chain, and does empirical studies using related data. As to the industry structure adjustment of the Midwest, the paper studies the influence of multinational industry transfer on the industry structure adjustment of the Midwest. At last, this paper makes a suggestion about the path of industry structure adjustment in the East and the Midwest.
     Firstly, we establish a mixed direct investment model and a export-platform model to analysis the pattern of multinational firms in China. The two-country model about heterogeneity always consists of two symmetrical developed countries. This paper sets up an asymmetrical countries'model to study the best choice of multinational firms and the influence of factors on the firms'choices, based on the factor-proportions theory and heterogeneous trade theory. We establish a model consisting of a two symmetrical countries and a developing country to study the export-platform direct investment. In the model the difference between the developed country and the developing country appears in the cost of factors and market demand. Then, as to the East, we study the endogenous segmentation and the factors influencing the determination of segmentation. The change of points of segmentation means that the position of firms in the East attending the global value chain will change. As to the Midwest, we analyze the difference of marginal industry expansion theory between the two countries and the two regions. The main differences belong to fluidness of factors and the influence of fluidness on the cost of factors.
     Based on the theory model, we do empirical studies to analysis the pattern of multinational firms in China, the East and the Midwest. Then, we analysis the influence of multinational firms on industry structure adjustment and the factors of the Midwest accepting the industry transfer from the East. At last, we give some advice about the way of industry structure adjustment.
     The main academic conclusions are firms with highest levels of productivity will choose horizontal foreign direct investment; firms with higher levels of productivity will choose mixed foreign direct investment; firms with lower levels of productivity will choose export trade. Transport cost, comparative wage and market scale tend to vary inversely with the amount of mixed foreign direct investment; the fixed cost of developing factories is directly proportional to mixed foreign direct investment. Under the complete contract, rising demand of host country will make multinational firms produce more segmentation products in the home country. Under the incomplete contract, rising demand of host country, rising trade cost and wage in home country will make multinational firms produce more segmentation products in the home country.
     The foundation of marginal industry expansion theory, comparative advantage, also exists in two regions belonging to one big country, but there are differences between two regions and two countries, degree of factor fluency and the influence of the fluency on factor price.
     The conclusions in empirical parts are that mixed direct investment dominates the East market of China; export-platform direct investment dominates the Midwest market of China. Under the incomplete contact, the more market demand is, the more transport cost and the lower wage are, the more segmentation stages will be produced in the East of China; the higher the degree of market is, the greater the industry transfer of multinational firms from the East to the Midwest is; the better infrastructure is, the lower the wage is, the greater the industry transfer of multinational firms.
引文
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