黑龙江省村域农业生态系统碳平衡及低碳农业对策研究
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摘要
目前世界各国日益关注以变暖为主要特征的气候变化,由于人类的活动、工业的排放和化石燃料的使用,导致了二氧化碳的排放日益增加,加剧了全球的温室效应。农业生态系统在全球碳循环中占有重要地位,农业既是碳汇也是碳源,一方面,农业生产中农作物可以固碳,另一方面农业生产中土壤呼吸、化肥的施用、畜禽养殖、农业废弃物的处理等环节又会产生碳的排放。由于碳排放导致的温室效应而引起的气候变化又严重影响到农业生产,农业也是最易遭受气候变化影响的产业。面对气候变化的严峻挑战,我国政府已经做出到2020年国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%～45%的承诺。联合国粮农组织提出,低碳农业既能遏制气候变化又能增加发展中国家的粮食产量,保持农业的可持续发展并发挥农业的固碳能力,对于我国的粮食安全与缓解气候变化趋势具有双重的积极意义。黑龙江省是粮食种植大省和畜牧业大省,在全国农业生态系统中碳的固定和排放中占有相当的比例。目前黑龙江省大部分农村采用常规农业的发展模式,从土地中收获的生物量大,但返还土壤的生物量少,同时畜牧业生产和居民生活用能碳排放量大,农业废弃物未得到有效地循环利用,形成“高投入、高消耗、高排放、低效率”的粗放型农业发展模式。同时,黑龙江省在探索生态农业、循环农业、有机农业的发展之路,形成不同地区的不同发展模式,这些模式将推动黑龙江省循环农业和低碳农业的发展。
本文以村域为边界,以年为单位,运用调研、试验分析和模型计算结合的方法,对黑龙江省不同农业发展模式的四个典型村域农业生态系统碳的吸收、固定、排放和转移以及村域农业系统中碳源/汇进行了估算分析;基于村域模式对黑龙江省农业生态系统碳平衡进行估算和基于统计分析方法对黑龙江省农业生态系统碳平衡进行估算,在分析研究黑龙江省低碳农业发展潜力基础上,提出了黑龙江省发展低碳农业的对策,最后提出了黑龙江省农业提高碳固定,减少碳排放和发展低碳农业的战略对策。以下是本文的基本结论:
1.本论文选取四个典型村作为研究对象,分别为以沼气利用为基础发展有机农业的新庄村,以发展种子专业生产的“公司+基地+农户”的订单模式的兴胜村,以发展循环农业和农村城镇化的循环农业模式的丰林村和以发展传统农业模式的同乐村。
2.新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村农作物碳吸收总量分别为8414t,5699t,9138t,7301t,农作物生育期碳吸收量的多少主要与村域农作物产量成正相关。农作物碳吸收强度分别7.2t/hm~2、4.2t/hm~2、6.8t/hm~2、9.1t/hm~2,碳吸收强度主要与农作物的单位面积产量有关,单位面积内农作物的产量越高,农作物生育期内碳的吸收量就越多。四个村域农作物平均碳吸收强度为6.8t/hm~2。从农田生态系统碳吸收能力上看,各作物生态系统碳吸收强度依次为马铃薯>甜菜>玉米>葵花>大豆>芸豆。
3.新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村农业生态系统碳吸收总量分别为11323t,13725t,16762t,14156t;碳吸收强度分别为9.1thm~2、8.5thm~2、10.6thm~2、14.1 thm~2。四个村域农业生态系统在碳吸收上存在较大的差异,主要与村域土地类型、土地面积以及农作物的产量和种植类型有关。从碳吸收能力上看,林地的碳吸收强度远远大于农田的碳吸收强度。
4.新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村农业生态系统碳排放量分别为28808t、30414t、36532t、18541t。四个村域碳排放量表现出明显差异。
(1)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村农作物种植统碳排放量分别为1243t、578t、522t、335t,新庄村水稻面积种植较多,农作物种植产生碳排放量远远高于其他三个村域。在农作物种植过程中,农业用电、农田灌溉、化肥施用和农机使用四个产生碳排放的途径中,因化肥的施用而产生的碳排放量最多,新庄村、兴胜村、丰林村和同乐村因化肥施用而产生的碳排放占种植生产中产生的碳排放总量之比分别是35%、91%、85%、87%。
(2)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村畜禽养殖产生的碳排放量分别为41t、64t、12t、39t,畜禽养殖产生的碳排放量多少主要与畜禽养殖数量和类型有关。
(3)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村土壤呼吸产生的碳排放量分别为19465t、24240t、24034t、14782t,土壤呼吸产生的碳排放量主要与村域土地面积和土地类型有关。村域土地以农田为主,因此农田土壤呼吸释放的碳量最多,新庄村、兴胜村、丰林村和同乐村农田土壤产生的碳排放量占土壤呼吸产生的碳排放总量之比分别为96%、91%、90%、87%。
(4)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村人口产生的碳排放量分别为1007t、611t、1245t、438t。四个村域人口产生的碳排放量的明显差异主要与村域人口数量有关。
(5)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村生活用能产生的碳排量分别为7052t、4921t、10630t、2927t;人均每年生活用能碳排放强度分别为2.3t、2.6 t、2.8 t、2.2t,主要与农民生活能源消费结构有关。同乐村、兴胜村生活用能以秸秆为主,能源利用效率很低,生活用能产生碳排放量高,新庄村以沼气和秸秆为生活用能,丰林村的生活用能以秸秆固化燃料作为取暖用能,以沼气作为炊事用能,具有明显的节能减排效果。
5. 2010年新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村农业生态系统固定的碳量分别为669t、532t、302t、800t,发展有机农业的新庄村和发展循环农业的丰林村农田土壤固碳量相对较高。
6. 2010年新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村四个村域转移出农业生态系统以外的碳量分别为3897t、2746t、5212t、5192t,转移出村域农业生态系统碳量依次为同乐村>丰林村>新庄村>兴胜村。农作物产品转移碳量占转移出村域农业生态系统碳量的百分比分别为98%、92%、99%、77%。四个村域转移出农业生态系统外的碳量以农产品为主,畜禽产品所占比重相对较少。
7.通过对四个典型村农田生态系统碳吸收量和碳排放量的估算分析,碳的排放量远远小于碳吸收量,四个村域农田生态系统碳吸收总量约为碳排放量的11倍,说明黑龙江省村域农田生态系统具有较强的碳汇能力。新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村农田生态系统碳汇量分别为7171t、5121t、8527t、6946t;碳汇强度分别为6.17t/ hm~2、3.74t/ hm~2、6.3t/ hm~2、8.7t/hm~2 ,平均碳汇强度6.2t/hm~2。
8.通过对四个典型村域农业生态系统碳吸收、碳排放、碳固定和碳转移的估算分析,四个村域农业生态系统由于碳排放远远大于碳吸收,碳排放总量约为碳吸收总量的2倍,可以看出黑龙江省村域农业生态系统表现为明显的碳排放源。新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村的碳源量分别为17485、16690t、19970t、4385t,碳源强度分别为14t/hm~2、10.4t/hm~2、12.6t/hm~2、4.4t/hm~2,四个村域的平均碳源强度为10.4t/hm~2。
9.由物流分室模型稳定性分析可知,有机农业模式的新庄村、循环农业模式的丰林村和高效专业农业模式的兴胜村的农业生态系统,依据农业生产格局的碳输入输出现有平衡状况,其农业生态系统趋向于渐近稳定。传统农业生产模式的同乐村农业生态系统趋向于不稳定。
10.从不同组合农业发展方案农业生态系统碳平衡估算结果可知,黑龙江省农业按照“10%传统农业+50%循环农业+40%高效农业”的发展方案,农田生态系统的碳排放量最低,碳吸收量和碳汇量最高,能够实现由目前的高能耗、高物耗、高排放和高污染的高碳农业向低能耗、低物耗、低排放和低污染的低碳农业的转型。
11.黑龙江省农作物碳吸收总量呈明显增加的趋势,碳吸收总量从2000年的2124万t上升到2009年的4685万t,涨幅为121%。农田生态系统碳排放基本上呈逐渐增加的趋势,碳排放总量从2000年的301万t增长到2009年的532.6万t,农田生态系统碳汇呈明显增加趋势,碳汇量与碳吸收量的年际变化趋势相似。
12. 2000-2009年黑龙江省畜禽碳排放总量上升从2000年的39.71万t上涨到2009年的60.88万t,涨幅为56%。2009年黑龙江省畜禽养殖产生的碳排放,反刍动物碳排放量约占畜禽养殖碳排放总量的70%。
13.黑龙江省农村人口碳排放呈逐渐下降的趋势,碳排放总量从2000年的601万t下降到2009年的559万t,降幅幅为6.9%。
14. 2009年黑龙江省农村生活用能碳排放量为5797t。
15.黑龙江省耕地土壤呼吸释放的碳量呈明显增加的趋势碳吸收总量从2000年15387万t上升到2009年的20797万t,涨幅为34%。
16.通过对黑龙江省农业生态系统碳平衡的估算,2009年黑龙江省农业生态系统碳吸收量为4685万t,碳排放量为28089万t,碳源量为23404万t。
17.在分析黑龙江省村域农业生态系统碳平衡现状、低碳农业发展潜力基础上,提出了黑龙江省发展低碳农业的对策,主要包括:建立发展低碳农业的地方法规政策体系、建立黑龙江省发展低碳农业的技术保障体系、采用低碳施肥技术、低碳种植技术、低碳畜禽养殖技术、加大农村可再生能源的开发与利用、建设低碳村域人居环境、积极探索发展农业碳交易。
Global climate change has attracted worldwide attention. Human activities, industrial emissions and the use of fossil fuels lead to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions and the global greenhouse effects have been added. The ecological system of agriculture has played an important role in global greenhouse gas circulation. Agriculture is not only carbon cool but also carbon source. On the one hand crops may fix carbon, on the other hand soil respiration, the use of chemical fertilizers, raising livestock and agricultural wastes can cause carbon emissions. The climate change caused by greenhouse effects will influence the agricultural industry and the agriculture is influenced by climate change easily. Facing the serious challenge of climate change, our government has decided that carbon dioxide emissions will be declined 40% ~ 45% in 2020 contrast to 2005. The FAO puts forward that low carbon agriculture can curb climate change, increase agricultural production in developing countries and maintain the sustainable development of agriculture and fixing carbon ability, which have the dual positive meaning for our country's food security and mitigating climate change trend. Heilongjiang province is a big province in food grown and animal husbandry and carbon fixation and emissions occupies a high proportion. Because straw return to the field ratio is low,carbon emissions from livestock production and residents living energy-using are big and agricultural waste do not recycle effectively, at present most countries in Heilongjiang province adopt conventional agriculture mode named high investment, high consumption , high emissions and low efficiency mode. Heilongjiang province is exploring a development way of ecological agriculture, circulating agricultural and organic agriculture. Different regions has formed different development modes in Heilongjiang province, which promote the development of circulating agriculture and low carbon agriculture of Heilongjiang.
This paper,bonded by village and taking year as unit, has estimated and ayalysed the carbon pool, carbon source and carbon absorption, fixation,emissions and transfer of four village regions in agricultural ecosystem in Heilongjiang province through using survey, experimental analysis and model calculation methods. Also we researched the stabilities of agricultural ecosystem of four village ecosystem by using logistics compartment model. We have made forecast on carbon emission trend on the four villages’agriculture ecosystem by way of recursive model.We estimated carbon emissions of farm ecosystem and raising livestock during agricultural industry of Heilongjiang province. At last we presented the strategy of improving carbon fixation, decreasing carbon emissions and developing low carbon agriculture in Heilongjiang province.
The paper drawed an inference following conclusions from analysis above:
1. Our paper selected four typical villages as our studies. They are Xinzhuang village which developed organic agriculture by using methane, Xingsheng village that founded a indent mode in seed industry named company,base plus farmer, Fenglin village that was a urbanization village and developed a recycling agriculture mode and Tongle village that developed conventional agriculture.
2. Crops carbon uptake contents of Xinzhuang village,Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 8414t,5699t,9138t and 7301t,respectively.The crops carbon abporption value in growth period is proportional to village crop’s output. Carbon uptake intensity were 7.2t/hm~2,4.2 t/hm~2,6.8 t/hm~2 and 9.1 t/hm~2,respectively. Carbon uptakeintensity of crops were proportional to crop output per unit area.The more output comes from unit area, the more carbon absorption from crop in growth period. The average carbon absorption intensity for the four villages is 6.8t/hm~2. . The carbon absoption intensity of each crop ecosystem in proper order is: potato>beets>corn>sunflower>soybean>kidney been in point view of carbon absorption capability of farmland ecosystem.
3.Carbon uptake contents in agricultural ecosystem of Xinzhuang village,Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 11323t,13725t,16762t and 14156t,respectively. Carbon uptake intensity were 9.1thm~2,8.5thm~2,10.6thm~2 and 14.1 thm~2,respectively. Carbon uptake contents in agricultural ecosystem of four village regions were different significantly. The reason was that four village regions have different soil type, land areas, crops yields and planting types.From the point of carbon absorption capability, Carbon uptake capacities of woodland were much higher than those of farmland.
4.Carbon emissions in agricultural ecosystem of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 29201t, 30414t, 36532t and 18541t, respectively. Carbon emissions value in agricultural ecosystem of four village regions were different significantly.
(1) Carbon emissions contents of crops planting of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 1243t,578t,522t and 335t.Rice areas of Xinzhuang village were very big and carbon emissions contents caused by crops planting were much higher than those of other three villages. There are four carbon emissions ways during crops planting such as agricultural electricity, field irrigation, chemical fertilizers and agricultural machinery use. Carbon emissions contents caused by chemical fertilizers were the most and the ratios of carbon emissions contents caused by chemical fertilizers and carbon emissions contents of crops planting were 35%,91%,85% and 87%, respectively.
(2)Carbon missions of raising livestock of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 41t,64t,12t and 39t. Carbon emissions of raising livestock were connected with numbers and types of raising livestock.
(3)Carbon emissions of soil respiration of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 19465t,24240t,24034t and 14782t. Carbon emissions contents of soil respiration were connected with soil areas and soil types.Village land mainly is farmland and so carbon emissions of soil respiration of farmland were the most. The ratios of carbon emissions of farm accounting for carbon emissions of soil respiration were 96 % ,91 % ,90 % and 87%,respectively.
(4) Carbon emissions of persons of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 1007t,611t,1245t and 438t, respectively.Evident differences of carbon emissions of persons of four villages were connected with numbers of persons.
(5) Carbon emissions of live energy were 7572t,4921t,10630t and 2927t.The average carbon emission intentity of live energy per year are 2.3t、2.6 t、2.8 t、2.2t respectively. This was connected with live energy consumption structure of farmers. Straw was the main live energy of Tonghe village and Xingsheng village with low efficiency of energy usage and high carbon emissions of live energy.Xinzhuang Village use straw and biagas as live energy.Fengling Village use straw fixation fuel as energy of warming and use biogas as energy for cooking,which has obvious effect on energy conservation and emission reduction.
5. Carbon fixations of agricultural ecosystem of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village in 2010 were 669t, 532t, 302t and 800t, respectively. Carbon fixations of Xinzhuang village which developed organic agriculture and Fenglin village which developed cycling agriculture were very high.
6.Carbon contents transferred out of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 3897t、2746t、5212t、5192t,, respectively in the year of 2010,The carbon value transferred out of village ecosystem in proper order is Tongle> Fengling> Xinzhuang> Xingsheng.The percentage of Crop transferred carbon value accounting for carbon value transferred out of village ecosystem is 98%、92%、99%、77% respectively.The carbon value transferred out of vallige ecosystem is mainly from agriculture product and livestock prodocut take few percentage.
7. By way of estimating analysis on carbon absorption value and carbon emission value of farm ecosystem in four typical villages, we get the result that carbon emission is much lower than carbon absorption.Carbon uptake contents were 11 times higher than carbon emissions contents. All these showed that farm ecosystem of village regions in Heilongjiang Province had high carbon pool abilities. Carbon pool contents of farm ecosystem of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 7171t,5121t,8527t and 6946t,respectively and carbon pool intensity were 6.17t/ hm~2,3.74t/ hm~2,6.3t/ hm~2 and 8.7t/ hm~2,respectively.The average carbon pool intensity is 6.2t/hm~2
8. By way of estimating analysis on carbon absorption value and carbon emission,carbon fixation and carbon transfer,carbon emissions contents of agricultural ecosystem of four village regions were much higher than carbon uptake contents and carbon emissions contents were 2 times higher than carbon uptake contents. All these showed that agricultural ecosystem of village regions were carbon emission source. Carbon emissions source of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 17485、16690t、19970t、4385t,respectively and carbon emissions source intensity were 14t/hm~2、10.4t/hm~2、12.6t/hm~2、4.4t/hm~2,respectively.The arerage carbon emission intensity of the four village is 10.4t/hm~2
9.Logistic compartment method show that Xingzhuang village in organic ariculture mode, Fengling village with developing cycle agriculture mode and Xingsheng village with developing high efficient and specific agriculture is tend to reach a stable agriculture ecosystem as long as they maintain current agriculture structure and current status of carbon emission and carbon absorption.Tongle Village with developing tradition agriculture production mode is tend to unstable agriculture ecosystem based on current agriculture production structure.
10.Estimations of carbon balance of agricultural ecosystem in view of different agricultural development projects showed that carbon emissions of farm ecosystem were the lowest,carbon absorption contents were the highest and high carbon agriculture of high energy consumption,high material consumption, high emission and high pollution might be transformed to low carbon agriculture of low energy consumption,low material consumption, low emission and low pollution if the project that adopted 10% traditional agriculture,50% cycling agriculture plus 40% efficient agriculture was carried out.
11.The recursive mode has demonstrates that crop carbon absorption value is in obvious increase in Heilongjiang Province.Carbon absorption has increased from 21240000t of the year of 2000 into 46850000t in the year of 2009 with 121% increase.Farmland ecosystem carbon emission basiclly is in increase gradually trend and carbon emission has increase from 3010000t in the year of 2000 into 5326000t in the year of 2009.Farmland ecosystem carbon pool demonstrates obvious intensitive trend.The yearly change trend of carbon pool and carbon absorption are similar.
12. Carbon emission total value of livestock in Heinglongjiang province from 2000 to 2009 has increase from 397100t for the year of 2000 into 608800t for the year of 2009, with 56% increase. Carbon emission from ruminant animals accourts for 70% of raising livestock for the carbon emission of livestock in Heilongjiang Province in 2009.
13.Carbon emissions of rural population of Heinglongjiang province were declining gradually. Carbon emissions declined from 6010000t of 2000 to 5590000t of 2009. Carbon emissions declined 6.9% in 2009 contrast to 2000.
14. Carbon emissions of live energy of village of Heinglongjiang province in 2009 were 5797t.
15. Carbon emissions from soil respiration of plowland of Heinglongjiang province increased evidently. Carbon absorption rised from 153870000t of 2000 to 207970000t of 2009. Carbon absorption increased 34% in 2009 contrast to 2000.
16. It was estimated that carbon absorptions of agricultural ecosystem of Heilongjiang province in 2009 were 46850000t and carbon emissions were 280890000t. Carbon pool contents were 234040000t.
17.Based on analysis on current status of agriculture ecosystem carbon cycle in villiges in Heilongliang province, developing mode of village low carbon emission agriculture and rserve force of village low carbon emission, this paper has proposed coutermeasures of developing low carbon emission agriculture in Heilongjiang villges.The measures mainly includes establish and develop local regulations for low carbon emission agriculture, establish technoloty guarantee system for developing village low carbon emission agriculture in Heilongjiang Province, adopt low carbon fertilization technology low carbon emission plant technology and low carbon emission livestock raising technology, strengthen exploring and usage of agriculture renewable resourses,establish low carbon emission village and explore positively on developing agriculture.
本文以村域为边界,以年为单位,运用调研、试验分析和模型计算结合的方法,对黑龙江省不同农业发展模式的四个典型村域农业生态系统碳的吸收、固定、排放和转移以及村域农业系统中碳源/汇进行了估算分析;基于村域模式对黑龙江省农业生态系统碳平衡进行估算和基于统计分析方法对黑龙江省农业生态系统碳平衡进行估算,在分析研究黑龙江省低碳农业发展潜力基础上,提出了黑龙江省发展低碳农业的对策,最后提出了黑龙江省农业提高碳固定,减少碳排放和发展低碳农业的战略对策。以下是本文的基本结论:
1.本论文选取四个典型村作为研究对象,分别为以沼气利用为基础发展有机农业的新庄村,以发展种子专业生产的“公司+基地+农户”的订单模式的兴胜村,以发展循环农业和农村城镇化的循环农业模式的丰林村和以发展传统农业模式的同乐村。
2.新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村农作物碳吸收总量分别为8414t,5699t,9138t,7301t,农作物生育期碳吸收量的多少主要与村域农作物产量成正相关。农作物碳吸收强度分别7.2t/hm~2、4.2t/hm~2、6.8t/hm~2、9.1t/hm~2,碳吸收强度主要与农作物的单位面积产量有关,单位面积内农作物的产量越高,农作物生育期内碳的吸收量就越多。四个村域农作物平均碳吸收强度为6.8t/hm~2。从农田生态系统碳吸收能力上看,各作物生态系统碳吸收强度依次为马铃薯>甜菜>玉米>葵花>大豆>芸豆。
3.新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村农业生态系统碳吸收总量分别为11323t,13725t,16762t,14156t;碳吸收强度分别为9.1thm~2、8.5thm~2、10.6thm~2、14.1 thm~2。四个村域农业生态系统在碳吸收上存在较大的差异,主要与村域土地类型、土地面积以及农作物的产量和种植类型有关。从碳吸收能力上看,林地的碳吸收强度远远大于农田的碳吸收强度。
4.新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村农业生态系统碳排放量分别为28808t、30414t、36532t、18541t。四个村域碳排放量表现出明显差异。
(1)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村农作物种植统碳排放量分别为1243t、578t、522t、335t,新庄村水稻面积种植较多,农作物种植产生碳排放量远远高于其他三个村域。在农作物种植过程中,农业用电、农田灌溉、化肥施用和农机使用四个产生碳排放的途径中,因化肥的施用而产生的碳排放量最多,新庄村、兴胜村、丰林村和同乐村因化肥施用而产生的碳排放占种植生产中产生的碳排放总量之比分别是35%、91%、85%、87%。
(2)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村畜禽养殖产生的碳排放量分别为41t、64t、12t、39t,畜禽养殖产生的碳排放量多少主要与畜禽养殖数量和类型有关。
(3)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村土壤呼吸产生的碳排放量分别为19465t、24240t、24034t、14782t,土壤呼吸产生的碳排放量主要与村域土地面积和土地类型有关。村域土地以农田为主,因此农田土壤呼吸释放的碳量最多,新庄村、兴胜村、丰林村和同乐村农田土壤产生的碳排放量占土壤呼吸产生的碳排放总量之比分别为96%、91%、90%、87%。
(4)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村人口产生的碳排放量分别为1007t、611t、1245t、438t。四个村域人口产生的碳排放量的明显差异主要与村域人口数量有关。
(5)新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村和丰林村生活用能产生的碳排量分别为7052t、4921t、10630t、2927t;人均每年生活用能碳排放强度分别为2.3t、2.6 t、2.8 t、2.2t,主要与农民生活能源消费结构有关。同乐村、兴胜村生活用能以秸秆为主,能源利用效率很低,生活用能产生碳排放量高,新庄村以沼气和秸秆为生活用能,丰林村的生活用能以秸秆固化燃料作为取暖用能,以沼气作为炊事用能,具有明显的节能减排效果。
5. 2010年新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村农业生态系统固定的碳量分别为669t、532t、302t、800t,发展有机农业的新庄村和发展循环农业的丰林村农田土壤固碳量相对较高。
6. 2010年新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村四个村域转移出农业生态系统以外的碳量分别为3897t、2746t、5212t、5192t,转移出村域农业生态系统碳量依次为同乐村>丰林村>新庄村>兴胜村。农作物产品转移碳量占转移出村域农业生态系统碳量的百分比分别为98%、92%、99%、77%。四个村域转移出农业生态系统外的碳量以农产品为主,畜禽产品所占比重相对较少。
7.通过对四个典型村农田生态系统碳吸收量和碳排放量的估算分析,碳的排放量远远小于碳吸收量,四个村域农田生态系统碳吸收总量约为碳排放量的11倍,说明黑龙江省村域农田生态系统具有较强的碳汇能力。新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村农田生态系统碳汇量分别为7171t、5121t、8527t、6946t;碳汇强度分别为6.17t/ hm~2、3.74t/ hm~2、6.3t/ hm~2、8.7t/hm~2 ,平均碳汇强度6.2t/hm~2。
8.通过对四个典型村域农业生态系统碳吸收、碳排放、碳固定和碳转移的估算分析,四个村域农业生态系统由于碳排放远远大于碳吸收,碳排放总量约为碳吸收总量的2倍,可以看出黑龙江省村域农业生态系统表现为明显的碳排放源。新庄村、兴胜村、同乐村、丰林村的碳源量分别为17485、16690t、19970t、4385t,碳源强度分别为14t/hm~2、10.4t/hm~2、12.6t/hm~2、4.4t/hm~2,四个村域的平均碳源强度为10.4t/hm~2。
9.由物流分室模型稳定性分析可知,有机农业模式的新庄村、循环农业模式的丰林村和高效专业农业模式的兴胜村的农业生态系统,依据农业生产格局的碳输入输出现有平衡状况,其农业生态系统趋向于渐近稳定。传统农业生产模式的同乐村农业生态系统趋向于不稳定。
10.从不同组合农业发展方案农业生态系统碳平衡估算结果可知,黑龙江省农业按照“10%传统农业+50%循环农业+40%高效农业”的发展方案,农田生态系统的碳排放量最低,碳吸收量和碳汇量最高,能够实现由目前的高能耗、高物耗、高排放和高污染的高碳农业向低能耗、低物耗、低排放和低污染的低碳农业的转型。
11.黑龙江省农作物碳吸收总量呈明显增加的趋势,碳吸收总量从2000年的2124万t上升到2009年的4685万t,涨幅为121%。农田生态系统碳排放基本上呈逐渐增加的趋势,碳排放总量从2000年的301万t增长到2009年的532.6万t,农田生态系统碳汇呈明显增加趋势,碳汇量与碳吸收量的年际变化趋势相似。
12. 2000-2009年黑龙江省畜禽碳排放总量上升从2000年的39.71万t上涨到2009年的60.88万t,涨幅为56%。2009年黑龙江省畜禽养殖产生的碳排放,反刍动物碳排放量约占畜禽养殖碳排放总量的70%。
13.黑龙江省农村人口碳排放呈逐渐下降的趋势,碳排放总量从2000年的601万t下降到2009年的559万t,降幅幅为6.9%。
14. 2009年黑龙江省农村生活用能碳排放量为5797t。
15.黑龙江省耕地土壤呼吸释放的碳量呈明显增加的趋势碳吸收总量从2000年15387万t上升到2009年的20797万t,涨幅为34%。
16.通过对黑龙江省农业生态系统碳平衡的估算,2009年黑龙江省农业生态系统碳吸收量为4685万t,碳排放量为28089万t,碳源量为23404万t。
17.在分析黑龙江省村域农业生态系统碳平衡现状、低碳农业发展潜力基础上,提出了黑龙江省发展低碳农业的对策,主要包括:建立发展低碳农业的地方法规政策体系、建立黑龙江省发展低碳农业的技术保障体系、采用低碳施肥技术、低碳种植技术、低碳畜禽养殖技术、加大农村可再生能源的开发与利用、建设低碳村域人居环境、积极探索发展农业碳交易。
Global climate change has attracted worldwide attention. Human activities, industrial emissions and the use of fossil fuels lead to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions and the global greenhouse effects have been added. The ecological system of agriculture has played an important role in global greenhouse gas circulation. Agriculture is not only carbon cool but also carbon source. On the one hand crops may fix carbon, on the other hand soil respiration, the use of chemical fertilizers, raising livestock and agricultural wastes can cause carbon emissions. The climate change caused by greenhouse effects will influence the agricultural industry and the agriculture is influenced by climate change easily. Facing the serious challenge of climate change, our government has decided that carbon dioxide emissions will be declined 40% ~ 45% in 2020 contrast to 2005. The FAO puts forward that low carbon agriculture can curb climate change, increase agricultural production in developing countries and maintain the sustainable development of agriculture and fixing carbon ability, which have the dual positive meaning for our country's food security and mitigating climate change trend. Heilongjiang province is a big province in food grown and animal husbandry and carbon fixation and emissions occupies a high proportion. Because straw return to the field ratio is low,carbon emissions from livestock production and residents living energy-using are big and agricultural waste do not recycle effectively, at present most countries in Heilongjiang province adopt conventional agriculture mode named high investment, high consumption , high emissions and low efficiency mode. Heilongjiang province is exploring a development way of ecological agriculture, circulating agricultural and organic agriculture. Different regions has formed different development modes in Heilongjiang province, which promote the development of circulating agriculture and low carbon agriculture of Heilongjiang.
This paper,bonded by village and taking year as unit, has estimated and ayalysed the carbon pool, carbon source and carbon absorption, fixation,emissions and transfer of four village regions in agricultural ecosystem in Heilongjiang province through using survey, experimental analysis and model calculation methods. Also we researched the stabilities of agricultural ecosystem of four village ecosystem by using logistics compartment model. We have made forecast on carbon emission trend on the four villages’agriculture ecosystem by way of recursive model.We estimated carbon emissions of farm ecosystem and raising livestock during agricultural industry of Heilongjiang province. At last we presented the strategy of improving carbon fixation, decreasing carbon emissions and developing low carbon agriculture in Heilongjiang province.
The paper drawed an inference following conclusions from analysis above:
1. Our paper selected four typical villages as our studies. They are Xinzhuang village which developed organic agriculture by using methane, Xingsheng village that founded a indent mode in seed industry named company,base plus farmer, Fenglin village that was a urbanization village and developed a recycling agriculture mode and Tongle village that developed conventional agriculture.
2. Crops carbon uptake contents of Xinzhuang village,Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 8414t,5699t,9138t and 7301t,respectively.The crops carbon abporption value in growth period is proportional to village crop’s output. Carbon uptake intensity were 7.2t/hm~2,4.2 t/hm~2,6.8 t/hm~2 and 9.1 t/hm~2,respectively. Carbon uptakeintensity of crops were proportional to crop output per unit area.The more output comes from unit area, the more carbon absorption from crop in growth period. The average carbon absorption intensity for the four villages is 6.8t/hm~2. . The carbon absoption intensity of each crop ecosystem in proper order is: potato>beets>corn>sunflower>soybean>kidney been in point view of carbon absorption capability of farmland ecosystem.
3.Carbon uptake contents in agricultural ecosystem of Xinzhuang village,Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 11323t,13725t,16762t and 14156t,respectively. Carbon uptake intensity were 9.1thm~2,8.5thm~2,10.6thm~2 and 14.1 thm~2,respectively. Carbon uptake contents in agricultural ecosystem of four village regions were different significantly. The reason was that four village regions have different soil type, land areas, crops yields and planting types.From the point of carbon absorption capability, Carbon uptake capacities of woodland were much higher than those of farmland.
4.Carbon emissions in agricultural ecosystem of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 29201t, 30414t, 36532t and 18541t, respectively. Carbon emissions value in agricultural ecosystem of four village regions were different significantly.
(1) Carbon emissions contents of crops planting of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 1243t,578t,522t and 335t.Rice areas of Xinzhuang village were very big and carbon emissions contents caused by crops planting were much higher than those of other three villages. There are four carbon emissions ways during crops planting such as agricultural electricity, field irrigation, chemical fertilizers and agricultural machinery use. Carbon emissions contents caused by chemical fertilizers were the most and the ratios of carbon emissions contents caused by chemical fertilizers and carbon emissions contents of crops planting were 35%,91%,85% and 87%, respectively.
(2)Carbon missions of raising livestock of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 41t,64t,12t and 39t. Carbon emissions of raising livestock were connected with numbers and types of raising livestock.
(3)Carbon emissions of soil respiration of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 19465t,24240t,24034t and 14782t. Carbon emissions contents of soil respiration were connected with soil areas and soil types.Village land mainly is farmland and so carbon emissions of soil respiration of farmland were the most. The ratios of carbon emissions of farm accounting for carbon emissions of soil respiration were 96 % ,91 % ,90 % and 87%,respectively.
(4) Carbon emissions of persons of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 1007t,611t,1245t and 438t, respectively.Evident differences of carbon emissions of persons of four villages were connected with numbers of persons.
(5) Carbon emissions of live energy were 7572t,4921t,10630t and 2927t.The average carbon emission intentity of live energy per year are 2.3t、2.6 t、2.8 t、2.2t respectively. This was connected with live energy consumption structure of farmers. Straw was the main live energy of Tonghe village and Xingsheng village with low efficiency of energy usage and high carbon emissions of live energy.Xinzhuang Village use straw and biagas as live energy.Fengling Village use straw fixation fuel as energy of warming and use biogas as energy for cooking,which has obvious effect on energy conservation and emission reduction.
5. Carbon fixations of agricultural ecosystem of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village in 2010 were 669t, 532t, 302t and 800t, respectively. Carbon fixations of Xinzhuang village which developed organic agriculture and Fenglin village which developed cycling agriculture were very high.
6.Carbon contents transferred out of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 3897t、2746t、5212t、5192t,, respectively in the year of 2010,The carbon value transferred out of village ecosystem in proper order is Tongle> Fengling> Xinzhuang> Xingsheng.The percentage of Crop transferred carbon value accounting for carbon value transferred out of village ecosystem is 98%、92%、99%、77% respectively.The carbon value transferred out of vallige ecosystem is mainly from agriculture product and livestock prodocut take few percentage.
7. By way of estimating analysis on carbon absorption value and carbon emission value of farm ecosystem in four typical villages, we get the result that carbon emission is much lower than carbon absorption.Carbon uptake contents were 11 times higher than carbon emissions contents. All these showed that farm ecosystem of village regions in Heilongjiang Province had high carbon pool abilities. Carbon pool contents of farm ecosystem of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 7171t,5121t,8527t and 6946t,respectively and carbon pool intensity were 6.17t/ hm~2,3.74t/ hm~2,6.3t/ hm~2 and 8.7t/ hm~2,respectively.The average carbon pool intensity is 6.2t/hm~2
8. By way of estimating analysis on carbon absorption value and carbon emission,carbon fixation and carbon transfer,carbon emissions contents of agricultural ecosystem of four village regions were much higher than carbon uptake contents and carbon emissions contents were 2 times higher than carbon uptake contents. All these showed that agricultural ecosystem of village regions were carbon emission source. Carbon emissions source of Xinzhuang village, Xingsheng village, Tonghe village and Fenglin village were 17485、16690t、19970t、4385t,respectively and carbon emissions source intensity were 14t/hm~2、10.4t/hm~2、12.6t/hm~2、4.4t/hm~2,respectively.The arerage carbon emission intensity of the four village is 10.4t/hm~2
9.Logistic compartment method show that Xingzhuang village in organic ariculture mode, Fengling village with developing cycle agriculture mode and Xingsheng village with developing high efficient and specific agriculture is tend to reach a stable agriculture ecosystem as long as they maintain current agriculture structure and current status of carbon emission and carbon absorption.Tongle Village with developing tradition agriculture production mode is tend to unstable agriculture ecosystem based on current agriculture production structure.
10.Estimations of carbon balance of agricultural ecosystem in view of different agricultural development projects showed that carbon emissions of farm ecosystem were the lowest,carbon absorption contents were the highest and high carbon agriculture of high energy consumption,high material consumption, high emission and high pollution might be transformed to low carbon agriculture of low energy consumption,low material consumption, low emission and low pollution if the project that adopted 10% traditional agriculture,50% cycling agriculture plus 40% efficient agriculture was carried out.
11.The recursive mode has demonstrates that crop carbon absorption value is in obvious increase in Heilongjiang Province.Carbon absorption has increased from 21240000t of the year of 2000 into 46850000t in the year of 2009 with 121% increase.Farmland ecosystem carbon emission basiclly is in increase gradually trend and carbon emission has increase from 3010000t in the year of 2000 into 5326000t in the year of 2009.Farmland ecosystem carbon pool demonstrates obvious intensitive trend.The yearly change trend of carbon pool and carbon absorption are similar.
12. Carbon emission total value of livestock in Heinglongjiang province from 2000 to 2009 has increase from 397100t for the year of 2000 into 608800t for the year of 2009, with 56% increase. Carbon emission from ruminant animals accourts for 70% of raising livestock for the carbon emission of livestock in Heilongjiang Province in 2009.
13.Carbon emissions of rural population of Heinglongjiang province were declining gradually. Carbon emissions declined from 6010000t of 2000 to 5590000t of 2009. Carbon emissions declined 6.9% in 2009 contrast to 2000.
14. Carbon emissions of live energy of village of Heinglongjiang province in 2009 were 5797t.
15. Carbon emissions from soil respiration of plowland of Heinglongjiang province increased evidently. Carbon absorption rised from 153870000t of 2000 to 207970000t of 2009. Carbon absorption increased 34% in 2009 contrast to 2000.
16. It was estimated that carbon absorptions of agricultural ecosystem of Heilongjiang province in 2009 were 46850000t and carbon emissions were 280890000t. Carbon pool contents were 234040000t.
17.Based on analysis on current status of agriculture ecosystem carbon cycle in villiges in Heilongliang province, developing mode of village low carbon emission agriculture and rserve force of village low carbon emission, this paper has proposed coutermeasures of developing low carbon emission agriculture in Heilongjiang villges.The measures mainly includes establish and develop local regulations for low carbon emission agriculture, establish technoloty guarantee system for developing village low carbon emission agriculture in Heilongjiang Province, adopt low carbon fertilization technology low carbon emission plant technology and low carbon emission livestock raising technology, strengthen exploring and usage of agriculture renewable resourses,establish low carbon emission village and explore positively on developing agriculture.
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