城乡居民家庭能源消费及其生存现状的多维视角分析
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摘要
当前,能源作为人类生存与发展的重要物质基础,在推动经济发展、社会进步和人类福利增进的同时,也带来了气候变化和环境污染,使其成为国际社会广泛关注的问题。居民家庭的生活能源消费是节能减排的重要方面,关乎着能源可持续发展战略的大局。随着中国城市化进程的加快,城乡居民家庭的能源消费结构和用能模式发生了很大转变。生活用能的数量、结构和方式成为衡量家庭生活水平和生存状态的重要尺度。
黄土高原西部地区是典型的生态脆弱区,经济发展水平较低,城乡居民的生活水平差异明显,其中能源消费水平的差异表现突出。本文以黄土高原西部地区为例,在“能源—经济—环境”系统的概念框架下,通过对能源问题的理论探讨和大量调查数据的深入剖析,从多维视角阐明生活能源消费与人类生存状态的关联机理。理论部分,以能源可持续发展理论、能源需求理论和能源阶梯理论作为理论支撑,并对能源阶梯理论进行扩展和延伸,将其应用到实证研究中。对国内外能源相关的研究成果分为六个方面进行梳理和评述,从而奠定本研究的基础。实证部分,通过对研究区域的大城市、中城市、小城市、县城和农村五类地区分别进行问卷调查,获取居民家庭的用能信息,共获得有效样本数1166个。首先,在全面掌握城乡居民家庭能源消费的种类、数量、结构、效率、支出的基础上,总结了从大城市到农村家庭能源消费的特征差异和阶梯变化规律,提出能源属性(可获得性、经济性、清洁性、可替代性、便利性)的定量评价方法,并揭示影响能源利用的主要因素,通过能源消费的视角来反映家庭的生存状态。其次,运用扩展的线性支出系统模型(ELES)分析了城乡居民家庭的用能需求并进行对比研究。最后,利用排放因子法分别从家庭层面和社会层面核算了五类地区有害气体的排放量以及能源替代的减排效应。主要结论如下：
第一,城乡居民家庭的用能特征有相似也有不同,从种类结构来看,城镇以化石能源为主,农村以生物质能和化石能源并重；从用途结构来看,炊事和取暖两项用能占据了家庭能源消费的绝大部分,农村的炊事用能要明显高于城镇。对能源消费的数量和能源属性的定量评价进行统计分析,结果表明,从大城市、中城市、小城市、县城到农村,家庭有效热能分别为351.49kgce、303.67kgce、288.07kgce、245.68kgce和127.89kgce,能源属性得分从大城市到农村呈依次下降趋势,并且农村能源的属性评分只有城市的3/5,能源阶梯特征存在。有效用能和能源属性、人均收入之间具有良好的交叉二次函数关系,家庭有效用能是两个自变量共同作用的结果,其中收入的贡献较大。在三维图中农村和城市的散点分布构成了两个明显的聚集区,揭示了城乡居民生活水平和生存状态的差异。收入高的城市家庭能源消费数量多,质量高,用能满足程度高,处于小康型的生活状态；而收入低的农村家庭获得的有效热能少,并且能源属性评分低,能源消费仍处于维持基本生存的状态。
第二,从大城市到农村呈现出用能支出依次递减的阶梯特征,农村的年人均能源消费支出大约为城镇的一半,并且在生存型消费上支出更多。根据ELES模型的估计结果可知,城乡家庭的生活能源的边际消费倾向分别为0.044和0.065,说明当收入增加时,农村居民比城镇居民会增加更多的能源消费支出。城镇的生活能源基本消费总支出为366.52元,农村为269.11元,表明城镇居民的能源需求高于农村居民。从基本消费支出占实际能源消费平均支出的比重来看,城镇比农村低6个百分点,意味着农村的生存型消费需求要比城镇高。这些都反映了城乡居民在消费水平、消费观念、生活方式以及生存状态上的差异。
第三,利用排放因子对家庭能源消费产生的污染物排放进行核算,从家庭层面来看,农户用能产生的污染物排放显著高于城镇家庭。但从社会层面来看,城乡居民家庭用能产生的污染物排放相差不大。通过建立有效用能与人均收入、污染物排放的交叉二次函数分析其内在关系,有效用能主要取决于收入水平；污染排放指数对有效用能的影响不大,但具有正反双向作用,一方面反映了消费者选择清洁能源的倾向,另一方面又表现出用能越多排放也越多的必然趋势。通过能源替代分析,结果显示天然气、太阳能、沼气等先进能源替代煤、火电、生物质能等传统能源具有明显的减排效益,未来减排潜力巨大。
基于以上研究,文章提出了生活用能方面的节能减排的政策取向,并为全面建设小康社会下的城乡能源建设和环境管理提供可行的政策建议,从而引导能源消费向低碳和可持续的方向发展。
At present, as an important material basis for human survival and development, energy promote economic development, social progress and human welfare enhancing, but meanwhile it also brings climate change and environmental pollution, which has been concerned by international community. Household energy consumption is an important aspect of energy saving and emission reduction, what related to the overall strategy of sustainable energy development. With the acceleration of the urbanization process in China, the energy consumption structure and pattern of urban and rural households has changed greatly. The quantity, structure and pattern of energy use become important yardstick to measure household living standard and survival status.
The western region of the Loess Plateau is a typical ecological fragile area, with low level of economic development. The difference of living level between urban and rural residents is obvious, of which the difference of energy consumption level appear outstanding. Taking the western region of the Loess Plateau as a case study, under the conceptual framework of the "energy-economy-environment" system, this paper represent the mechanism of association between household energy consumption and the human survival status from multi-dimensional perspective, through theoretical discussion on energy issues and in-depth analysis of a large number of survey data. In the theoretical part, theory of sustainable energy development, energy demand theory and the energy ladder theory are introduced as the theoretical support, and the energy ladder theory is expanded and extended. These theories are applied to the empirical study. The domestic and international energy-related research is divided into six areas to sort out and comment, thereby lay the foundation for this study. In the empirical part, access to the information of household energy use through the questionnaire survey conducted in big city, medium-sized cities, small cities, county towns and rural areas of the study area, obtain1166effective samples in total. First, based on the complete handle of the types, quantity, structure, efficiency and spending of energy consumption in urban and rural households, summarizes the differences of household energy consumption and its change pattern of characteristic like ladder from big city to rural area, and propose quantitative evaluation method to energy attributes(availability, economy, cleanliness, substitutability, convenience), then reveal the main factors that affect energy use, that reflect the survival status of family from energy consumption perspective. Next, apply the extended linear expenditure system model (ELES) to analyze the energy demand of urban and rural households and conduct a comparative study. Finally, use the emission factors to calculate pollutants emissions from the household level and social level respectively in the five regions and the emission reduction effects of alternative energy. The main conclusions are as follows:
First, urban and rural household energy use shows similar but also different characteristics. In terms of type structure, urban households are dominant by fossil energy, while rural households are dominant by both the biomass energy and fossil energy. In terms of purpose structure, cooking and heating energy use accounted for a majority of household energy consumption, and cooking energy used by rural household is significantly higher than urban household. Taking statistical analysis to the amount of energy consumption and the quantitative evaluation of energy properties, the results show that the per capita effective heat is351.49kgce,303.67kgce,288.07kgce,245.68kgce and123.6kgce in the big city, medium-sized cities, small cities, county towns and rural areas, respectively. Energy attribute score appear the downward trend from big city to rural area, and the attributes score of energy used by a rural resident is only about60%of that by an urban resident. The energy ladder feature is obvious. A good cross-quadratic function can be built between per capita effective heat and two independent variables including per capita income and energy attributes. The effective heat is the result of two independent variables interacting together, income being the most important. In the three-dimensional graph, the scattered points distribution of rural and urban areas constitute two distinct congregate areas, that reveals the differences in living standards and survival status between urban and rural households. High-income households in urban areas consume more quantity and high-quality energy, and can be highly met with energy use, being in the well-off living conditions. While low-income households in rural areas obtain less effective heat, and use poor quality fuels, they are still at the level of basic survival.
Second, the energy expenditure shows the ladder characteristic of decrease in turn from big cities to rural areas. The annual per capita energy expenditure in rural households is about half of urban households, and rural residents spend more on the survival consumption. According to the estimation results of ELES model, it can be found that the marginal propensity to consume the energy in urban and rural households is0.044and0.065, respectively, what make clear that when the income increase, rural residents will increase more energy expenditures than urban residents. The basic energy expenditure of urban households is366.52yuan, while that of rural households is269.11yuan. The energy demand of urban residents is higher than rural residents. From the perspective of the proportion of basic energy expenditure accounting for the actual expenditure of energy consumption, demand for survival consumption of rural residents is higher than urban residents. These reflect differences in the level of consumption, consumer attitudes, lifestyles and living condition between urban and rural residents.
Third, use the emission factor to calculate pollutant emissions which produced by household energy consumption, accounting from household perspective, the emissions generated by energy use of rural households are significantly larger than those of urban households. However, accounting from social perspective, the difference of emissions between urban and rural households is little. A good cross-quadratic function can be built between per capita effective heat and two independent variables including per capita income and the emissions, and the effective heat mainly depends on income levels. The emission index has little influence on effective heat, but it has the bi-directional roles. On the one hand, it reflects the tendency of consumers choosing clean energy. On the other hand, it reflects the inevitable trend that the more energy used, the more emissions produced. Taking the analysis of energy alternatives, the results showed that there is significant emission reduction benefits as the advanced energy including natural gas, solar, biogas substitute the traditional energy like coal, thermal power, biomass, also huge potential for future emission reduction.
Based on the above research, this paper presents the policy orientation of energy saving and emission reduction in the household energy consumption, and provide practical policy recommendations for urban and rural energy construction and environmental management under the background of comprehensively building a well-off society. Thus it could guide the energy consumption to development toward low carbon and sustainable direction.
黄土高原西部地区是典型的生态脆弱区,经济发展水平较低,城乡居民的生活水平差异明显,其中能源消费水平的差异表现突出。本文以黄土高原西部地区为例,在“能源—经济—环境”系统的概念框架下,通过对能源问题的理论探讨和大量调查数据的深入剖析,从多维视角阐明生活能源消费与人类生存状态的关联机理。理论部分,以能源可持续发展理论、能源需求理论和能源阶梯理论作为理论支撑,并对能源阶梯理论进行扩展和延伸,将其应用到实证研究中。对国内外能源相关的研究成果分为六个方面进行梳理和评述,从而奠定本研究的基础。实证部分,通过对研究区域的大城市、中城市、小城市、县城和农村五类地区分别进行问卷调查,获取居民家庭的用能信息,共获得有效样本数1166个。首先,在全面掌握城乡居民家庭能源消费的种类、数量、结构、效率、支出的基础上,总结了从大城市到农村家庭能源消费的特征差异和阶梯变化规律,提出能源属性(可获得性、经济性、清洁性、可替代性、便利性)的定量评价方法,并揭示影响能源利用的主要因素,通过能源消费的视角来反映家庭的生存状态。其次,运用扩展的线性支出系统模型(ELES)分析了城乡居民家庭的用能需求并进行对比研究。最后,利用排放因子法分别从家庭层面和社会层面核算了五类地区有害气体的排放量以及能源替代的减排效应。主要结论如下：
第一,城乡居民家庭的用能特征有相似也有不同,从种类结构来看,城镇以化石能源为主,农村以生物质能和化石能源并重；从用途结构来看,炊事和取暖两项用能占据了家庭能源消费的绝大部分,农村的炊事用能要明显高于城镇。对能源消费的数量和能源属性的定量评价进行统计分析,结果表明,从大城市、中城市、小城市、县城到农村,家庭有效热能分别为351.49kgce、303.67kgce、288.07kgce、245.68kgce和127.89kgce,能源属性得分从大城市到农村呈依次下降趋势,并且农村能源的属性评分只有城市的3/5,能源阶梯特征存在。有效用能和能源属性、人均收入之间具有良好的交叉二次函数关系,家庭有效用能是两个自变量共同作用的结果,其中收入的贡献较大。在三维图中农村和城市的散点分布构成了两个明显的聚集区,揭示了城乡居民生活水平和生存状态的差异。收入高的城市家庭能源消费数量多,质量高,用能满足程度高,处于小康型的生活状态；而收入低的农村家庭获得的有效热能少,并且能源属性评分低,能源消费仍处于维持基本生存的状态。
第二,从大城市到农村呈现出用能支出依次递减的阶梯特征,农村的年人均能源消费支出大约为城镇的一半,并且在生存型消费上支出更多。根据ELES模型的估计结果可知,城乡家庭的生活能源的边际消费倾向分别为0.044和0.065,说明当收入增加时,农村居民比城镇居民会增加更多的能源消费支出。城镇的生活能源基本消费总支出为366.52元,农村为269.11元,表明城镇居民的能源需求高于农村居民。从基本消费支出占实际能源消费平均支出的比重来看,城镇比农村低6个百分点,意味着农村的生存型消费需求要比城镇高。这些都反映了城乡居民在消费水平、消费观念、生活方式以及生存状态上的差异。
第三,利用排放因子对家庭能源消费产生的污染物排放进行核算,从家庭层面来看,农户用能产生的污染物排放显著高于城镇家庭。但从社会层面来看,城乡居民家庭用能产生的污染物排放相差不大。通过建立有效用能与人均收入、污染物排放的交叉二次函数分析其内在关系,有效用能主要取决于收入水平；污染排放指数对有效用能的影响不大,但具有正反双向作用,一方面反映了消费者选择清洁能源的倾向,另一方面又表现出用能越多排放也越多的必然趋势。通过能源替代分析,结果显示天然气、太阳能、沼气等先进能源替代煤、火电、生物质能等传统能源具有明显的减排效益,未来减排潜力巨大。
基于以上研究,文章提出了生活用能方面的节能减排的政策取向,并为全面建设小康社会下的城乡能源建设和环境管理提供可行的政策建议,从而引导能源消费向低碳和可持续的方向发展。
At present, as an important material basis for human survival and development, energy promote economic development, social progress and human welfare enhancing, but meanwhile it also brings climate change and environmental pollution, which has been concerned by international community. Household energy consumption is an important aspect of energy saving and emission reduction, what related to the overall strategy of sustainable energy development. With the acceleration of the urbanization process in China, the energy consumption structure and pattern of urban and rural households has changed greatly. The quantity, structure and pattern of energy use become important yardstick to measure household living standard and survival status.
The western region of the Loess Plateau is a typical ecological fragile area, with low level of economic development. The difference of living level between urban and rural residents is obvious, of which the difference of energy consumption level appear outstanding. Taking the western region of the Loess Plateau as a case study, under the conceptual framework of the "energy-economy-environment" system, this paper represent the mechanism of association between household energy consumption and the human survival status from multi-dimensional perspective, through theoretical discussion on energy issues and in-depth analysis of a large number of survey data. In the theoretical part, theory of sustainable energy development, energy demand theory and the energy ladder theory are introduced as the theoretical support, and the energy ladder theory is expanded and extended. These theories are applied to the empirical study. The domestic and international energy-related research is divided into six areas to sort out and comment, thereby lay the foundation for this study. In the empirical part, access to the information of household energy use through the questionnaire survey conducted in big city, medium-sized cities, small cities, county towns and rural areas of the study area, obtain1166effective samples in total. First, based on the complete handle of the types, quantity, structure, efficiency and spending of energy consumption in urban and rural households, summarizes the differences of household energy consumption and its change pattern of characteristic like ladder from big city to rural area, and propose quantitative evaluation method to energy attributes(availability, economy, cleanliness, substitutability, convenience), then reveal the main factors that affect energy use, that reflect the survival status of family from energy consumption perspective. Next, apply the extended linear expenditure system model (ELES) to analyze the energy demand of urban and rural households and conduct a comparative study. Finally, use the emission factors to calculate pollutants emissions from the household level and social level respectively in the five regions and the emission reduction effects of alternative energy. The main conclusions are as follows:
First, urban and rural household energy use shows similar but also different characteristics. In terms of type structure, urban households are dominant by fossil energy, while rural households are dominant by both the biomass energy and fossil energy. In terms of purpose structure, cooking and heating energy use accounted for a majority of household energy consumption, and cooking energy used by rural household is significantly higher than urban household. Taking statistical analysis to the amount of energy consumption and the quantitative evaluation of energy properties, the results show that the per capita effective heat is351.49kgce,303.67kgce,288.07kgce,245.68kgce and123.6kgce in the big city, medium-sized cities, small cities, county towns and rural areas, respectively. Energy attribute score appear the downward trend from big city to rural area, and the attributes score of energy used by a rural resident is only about60%of that by an urban resident. The energy ladder feature is obvious. A good cross-quadratic function can be built between per capita effective heat and two independent variables including per capita income and energy attributes. The effective heat is the result of two independent variables interacting together, income being the most important. In the three-dimensional graph, the scattered points distribution of rural and urban areas constitute two distinct congregate areas, that reveals the differences in living standards and survival status between urban and rural households. High-income households in urban areas consume more quantity and high-quality energy, and can be highly met with energy use, being in the well-off living conditions. While low-income households in rural areas obtain less effective heat, and use poor quality fuels, they are still at the level of basic survival.
Second, the energy expenditure shows the ladder characteristic of decrease in turn from big cities to rural areas. The annual per capita energy expenditure in rural households is about half of urban households, and rural residents spend more on the survival consumption. According to the estimation results of ELES model, it can be found that the marginal propensity to consume the energy in urban and rural households is0.044and0.065, respectively, what make clear that when the income increase, rural residents will increase more energy expenditures than urban residents. The basic energy expenditure of urban households is366.52yuan, while that of rural households is269.11yuan. The energy demand of urban residents is higher than rural residents. From the perspective of the proportion of basic energy expenditure accounting for the actual expenditure of energy consumption, demand for survival consumption of rural residents is higher than urban residents. These reflect differences in the level of consumption, consumer attitudes, lifestyles and living condition between urban and rural residents.
Third, use the emission factor to calculate pollutant emissions which produced by household energy consumption, accounting from household perspective, the emissions generated by energy use of rural households are significantly larger than those of urban households. However, accounting from social perspective, the difference of emissions between urban and rural households is little. A good cross-quadratic function can be built between per capita effective heat and two independent variables including per capita income and the emissions, and the effective heat mainly depends on income levels. The emission index has little influence on effective heat, but it has the bi-directional roles. On the one hand, it reflects the tendency of consumers choosing clean energy. On the other hand, it reflects the inevitable trend that the more energy used, the more emissions produced. Taking the analysis of energy alternatives, the results showed that there is significant emission reduction benefits as the advanced energy including natural gas, solar, biogas substitute the traditional energy like coal, thermal power, biomass, also huge potential for future emission reduction.
Based on the above research, this paper presents the policy orientation of energy saving and emission reduction in the household energy consumption, and provide practical policy recommendations for urban and rural energy construction and environmental management under the background of comprehensively building a well-off society. Thus it could guide the energy consumption to development toward low carbon and sustainable direction.
引文
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