城市电网可靠性与计划的经济性研究
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摘要
随着社会经济的发展，用户对电力供应可靠性的要求越来越高。一方面用户希望在经济的前提下得到可靠度高的供电，以降低其停电损失；而另一方面，供电部门在提高供电可靠性上受着资金和技术的限制。解决这一矛盾最好的办法就是采用可靠性成本—效益分析法，综合分析供电侧的投资成本和用电侧的停电损失，寻求一最优可靠度，使供用电双方的成本费用为最小。在这一研究中，最难确定的就是系统用户的停电损失。
停电损失反映了供电不可靠的程度，它与可靠性指标有关系，而制定可靠性指标并对其进行定量评估是开展可靠性经济性研究的基础。作为电力系统的重要负荷中心，城市电网配电系统可靠性指标的建立及定量评估有其自身的特点。本文在研究城网系统运行特点以及国内外可靠性指标体系的基础上，确立了城网系统可靠性指标的制定应从用户负荷点和系统这两个方面来考虑，即它们不仅要能反映系统的运行特性，也应当是在用户侧有意义的。
在定量评估负荷点或系统可靠性指标的研究中，本文较全面地分析了各元件故障和元件在线路中的位置以及计划检修、临时停电、天气因素、负荷转移等因素对估算负荷点可靠性指标的影响；研究了现有的可靠性评估模型，结合城市电网的实际运行特点，采用一种综合的方法估算辐射型电网的可靠性指标，算例结果表明它是有效可行的。
停电损失是研究可靠性经济性问题的重点。本文比较深入地论述了停电损失的概念，明确了其分类，分析了影响停电损失的各种因素，论述了过去或现在测定停电损失的方法，以及这些方法的优缺点，确定了利用用户调查法来估算不同用户的停电损失。根据各类用户用电特性、停电特性和经济活动的不同特点，对它们的停电损失作定性及定量的分析，提出了三类(住宅、工业、商业)用户的停电损失估算模型，并设计了调查表，利用调查表对住宅类用户进行实际调查，经过数据处理获得该类用户的停电损失值，验证了调查表的合理性。在深入分析研究国外估算系统及负荷点停电损失的方法的基础上，结合我国实际情况，对估算公式进行了修正，对数据处理过程做了改进。在一定计算条件下，分别采用两种不同的费用模型，对一算例求系统的停电损失，所得结果相近，说明利用这两种模型估算系统停电损失是可行的正确的，然后对它们进行了比较，并提出一种使停电损失的估算具有通用性的新思想。最后，对于停电损失运用于可靠性优化规划，从理论上作了初步探讨。
With the development of economy, customers' demand on the reliability of the power supply become higher and higher. On the one hand, the customers hope for higher reliability with less money to reduce their outage costs; on the other hand, it is difficult for the supply department to enhance the power supply's reliability because of the limit of money and technology. The best way to solve the problem is to adopt the reliability cost-benefit analysis method which analyze the outage costs of generation side and demand side to find the optimal reliability to reduce the power company and the customer's costs to the least. During the study of the reliability, it is the most difficult to estimate the system's user's outage costs.
The outage costs can be regarded as an index to image the unreliability extent and there is the relation between outage costs and reliability index. How to establish the reliability index and how to evaluate it are the basis of the study on the economics of power system reliability. As the important load center of power system, the establishment and evaluation of distribution system's reliability index has his characteristics. Based on the profound study of the operation of urban-network system, this thesis estimate that the establishment of the reliability index should be considered from two aspects namely load point and the whole system, that is they not only describe the operation characteristics of the system, but also image the characteristics of the interruption to the users.
This thesis discussed the affection of all kinds of components contingency and the components' position in the line and other factors on the evaluation of load point reliability index. This thesis adopts a integrative method to deal with simple or complex distribution network with the system's practical operation characteristics and the results of the example reveal that it is feasible.
The key to study the economics of power system reliability is outage costs. This thesis discusses the conception and classification of the outage costs, and the factors influencing outage costs and the method of outage costs estimation and its advantages and disadvantages are presented, at last customer survey is regarded as a better way to evaluates the outage costs. According to the different characteristics of user's economic activities and the energy consumption, the thesis gives a
quantitative analysis on the users' outage costs and gives the outage costs estimation model of three kinds of users (residential sector, industrial sector, commercial sector). By design-survey table, residential users are investigated, and the residential users outage costs are estimated. Based on the profound study of the method which is used to estimate the outage costs abroad, the thesis amends the estimation method which makes the estimation more reasonable with the practical situation in our country. Under a certain calculation circumstance, the thesis adopts two different costs models to calculate a example's outage costs which illuminate that adopting the two models to estimate outage costs is feasible. At last, the outage costs are used on reliability optimization project are theoretically discussed.
停电损失反映了供电不可靠的程度，它与可靠性指标有关系，而制定可靠性指标并对其进行定量评估是开展可靠性经济性研究的基础。作为电力系统的重要负荷中心，城市电网配电系统可靠性指标的建立及定量评估有其自身的特点。本文在研究城网系统运行特点以及国内外可靠性指标体系的基础上，确立了城网系统可靠性指标的制定应从用户负荷点和系统这两个方面来考虑，即它们不仅要能反映系统的运行特性，也应当是在用户侧有意义的。
在定量评估负荷点或系统可靠性指标的研究中，本文较全面地分析了各元件故障和元件在线路中的位置以及计划检修、临时停电、天气因素、负荷转移等因素对估算负荷点可靠性指标的影响；研究了现有的可靠性评估模型，结合城市电网的实际运行特点，采用一种综合的方法估算辐射型电网的可靠性指标，算例结果表明它是有效可行的。
停电损失是研究可靠性经济性问题的重点。本文比较深入地论述了停电损失的概念，明确了其分类，分析了影响停电损失的各种因素，论述了过去或现在测定停电损失的方法，以及这些方法的优缺点，确定了利用用户调查法来估算不同用户的停电损失。根据各类用户用电特性、停电特性和经济活动的不同特点，对它们的停电损失作定性及定量的分析，提出了三类(住宅、工业、商业)用户的停电损失估算模型，并设计了调查表，利用调查表对住宅类用户进行实际调查，经过数据处理获得该类用户的停电损失值，验证了调查表的合理性。在深入分析研究国外估算系统及负荷点停电损失的方法的基础上，结合我国实际情况，对估算公式进行了修正，对数据处理过程做了改进。在一定计算条件下，分别采用两种不同的费用模型，对一算例求系统的停电损失，所得结果相近，说明利用这两种模型估算系统停电损失是可行的正确的，然后对它们进行了比较，并提出一种使停电损失的估算具有通用性的新思想。最后，对于停电损失运用于可靠性优化规划，从理论上作了初步探讨。
With the development of economy, customers' demand on the reliability of the power supply become higher and higher. On the one hand, the customers hope for higher reliability with less money to reduce their outage costs; on the other hand, it is difficult for the supply department to enhance the power supply's reliability because of the limit of money and technology. The best way to solve the problem is to adopt the reliability cost-benefit analysis method which analyze the outage costs of generation side and demand side to find the optimal reliability to reduce the power company and the customer's costs to the least. During the study of the reliability, it is the most difficult to estimate the system's user's outage costs.
The outage costs can be regarded as an index to image the unreliability extent and there is the relation between outage costs and reliability index. How to establish the reliability index and how to evaluate it are the basis of the study on the economics of power system reliability. As the important load center of power system, the establishment and evaluation of distribution system's reliability index has his characteristics. Based on the profound study of the operation of urban-network system, this thesis estimate that the establishment of the reliability index should be considered from two aspects namely load point and the whole system, that is they not only describe the operation characteristics of the system, but also image the characteristics of the interruption to the users.
This thesis discussed the affection of all kinds of components contingency and the components' position in the line and other factors on the evaluation of load point reliability index. This thesis adopts a integrative method to deal with simple or complex distribution network with the system's practical operation characteristics and the results of the example reveal that it is feasible.
The key to study the economics of power system reliability is outage costs. This thesis discusses the conception and classification of the outage costs, and the factors influencing outage costs and the method of outage costs estimation and its advantages and disadvantages are presented, at last customer survey is regarded as a better way to evaluates the outage costs. According to the different characteristics of user's economic activities and the energy consumption, the thesis gives a
quantitative analysis on the users' outage costs and gives the outage costs estimation model of three kinds of users (residential sector, industrial sector, commercial sector). By design-survey table, residential users are investigated, and the residential users outage costs are estimated. Based on the profound study of the method which is used to estimate the outage costs abroad, the thesis amends the estimation method which makes the estimation more reasonable with the practical situation in our country. Under a certain calculation circumstance, the thesis adopts two different costs models to calculate a example's outage costs which illuminate that adopting the two models to estimate outage costs is feasible. At last, the outage costs are used on reliability optimization project are theoretically discussed.
引文
[1] 陈文高．配电系统可靠性实用基础．北京．中国电力出版社，1998
[2] L.Goel,R.Billinton. Evaluation of Interrupted Energy Assessment Rates in Distribution Systems. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 1991,6(4): 1876-1882
[3] 周家启，任震泽．电力系统可靠性评估，重庆．科学技术文献出版社重庆分社，1984
[4] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton etal. Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power Systems Reliability Evaluation (1992-1996). IEEE Transactions on PAS, 1999,14(1):51-57
[5] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton etal. Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power Systems Reliability Evaluation (1987-1991). IEEE Transactions on PAS, 1994,9(1): 41-48
[6] G.Tollefson, R.Billinton. Comprehensive Bibliography on Reliability Worth and Electrical Service Consumer Interruption Costs:1981-1990. IEEE Transactions on PAS, 1991,6(4): 1508-1513
[7] 别朝红，王锡凡．蒙特卡罗法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用．电力系统自动化，1997，21(6)：68-75
[8] 张焰．电网规划中的模糊可靠性评估方法．中国电机工程学报，2000，20(11)：77-80
[9] 牛辉，程浩忠，张焰，陈陈．电网扩展规划的可靠性和经济性研究综述．电力系统自动化，2000，24(1)：51-56
[10] C.W. Gellings, F.P. Sioshansi. Demand-Side Management: The Third Wave.Energy Policy. Fairmont Press, 1995,23 (2): 111-114
[11] 童陆园，郭日彩，韩英铎等，具有FACTS设备的输电网络长期规划可靠性优化方法及三峡，华中，华东，四川联网可靠性优化．中国电机工程学报，1999，19(1)：6-9
[12] 张纯．电力经济与管理．北京．水利水电出版社．1990
[13] 吴竞昌主编．中国电力百科全书．电力系统卷[M]．北京：中国电力出版社，1995
[14] 程林，郭永基．暂态能量函数法用于可靠性安全性评估．清华大学学报(自然科学版)2001，41(3)：5-8
[15] 王德生，郭永基译．电力系统可靠性．北京．水利水电出版社．1988
[16] 陈章潮，唐德光．城市电网规划与改造．北京．中国电力出版社，1998
[17] 杨莳百，戴景宸，孙启宏．电力系统可靠性分析基础及应用．第一版．北京．水利水电出版社，1986
[18] 范明天，张祖平，岳宗斌译．配电网络规划与设计．第一版．北京．中国电力出版社．1999
[19] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton etal. A Reliability Test Systems For Educational purposes---Basic Distribution System Data And Results. IEEE Trans. Power Systems, 1991,6(2),813-820
[20] 毛钧焘译．电力系统可靠度和计划的经济性理论和实例分析．北京．水利水电出版社，1987
[21] L.Goel. Power System Reliability Cost/Benefit Assessment and Application in Perspective. Computer & Electrical Egineering, 1998,24:315-324
[22] 张焰．电网规划忠中的可靠性成本效益分析研究．电力系统自动化，1999，23(15)：33-36
[23] 曹世光，杨以涵，于尔铿，缺电成本及其评估方法．电网技术，1996，20(1)：72-74
[24] M.Bernstein, Y. Hegory. Economic Costs of Electricity Shortages. Electricity Reliability: Special Issue. Energy Journal, 1998,19:173-188
[25] K.K.Kariuki,R.N.Allan. Factors affecting Customer outage costs due to electric service interruptions. IEEE Proc-Oener. Transm. Distrib, 1996,143(6):521-528
[26] O.Waeker, R.Billinton. Customer Cost of Electric Service. Proceeding of the IEEE, 1989,77(6):919-930
[27] K.K.Kariuki, R.N.Allan. Assessment of Customer Outage Costs due to Electric Service Interruptions: residential sector.IEEE Proc-Gener.Transm. Distrib, 1996,142(2): 163-170
[28] Arun P Sanhui, Neal J.Balu,Mark G.Lauby. Power System Reliability Planning Practices in North America. IEEE Trans. On Power Systems, 1991,6(4):1485-1492
[29] Kanuki K K, Allan R N. Reliability Worth in Distribution Plant Replacement Programmers, The Reliability of Transmission and Distribution Equipment,Conference Publication 1995, No.406:162-167
[30] A.O.Massaud, M.Th. Schilling, J.P. Hernandez. Electricity Restriction Costs.
IEEE Proc-Gener. Transm. Distrib, 1994,141 (4): 299-304
[31] J.Gates, G.Wacker, R.Billinton. Development of Customer Survey Instruments for Reliability Worth Evaluation in Electric Power Systems. IEEE WESCANEX'95 Proceedings,1995:12-17
[32] R.Ghajar, R.Billinton. Distributed Nature of Residential Customer Outage Costs.IEEE Trans. On Power Systems, 1996,11(3): 1236-1244
[33] R.K.Subramaniam,Roy Billinton and Garry Wacker. Understanding Industrial Losses Resulting from Electric Service Interruptions. IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications, 1993,29(1): 238-243
[34] G.Tollefson, R.Billinton,F. Wacker, E.Chan,J.Aweya. A Canadian Customer Survey to Assess Power System Reliability Worth. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1993, 29(1): 1759-1710
[35] R.K.Subramaniam, Garry Wacker and Roy Billinton. Understanding Commercial Losses Resulting from Electric Service Interruptions. IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications, 1993, 29(1): 233-237
[36] J.Gates, R.Billinton,G.Wacker. Electric Service Reliability Worth Evaluation for Government, Institutions and Office Buildings. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1999, 14(1): 43-50
[37] K.K.Kariuki,R.N.Allan. Evaluation of Reliability Worth and Value of Lost Load.IEEE Proc-Gener. Transm. Distrib, 1996,143 (2): 171-180
[38] K.K.Kariuki,R.N.Allan. Applications of Customer outage Costs in System planning, Designing and Operation. IEEE Proc-Gener.Transm. Distrib, 1996,143 (4):305-312
[39] 何仰赞，温增银等编，电力系统分析(上册)．武汉．华中理工大学出版社：1995
[40] R.Billinton,J.Oteng-Adjei,R.Ghajar. Comparison of Two Alternate Methods to Establish an Interrupted Energy Assessment Rate. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1987, PWRS-2(3):1238-1244
[41] L.Goel,R.Billinton. A Procedure for Evaluating Interrupted Energy Assessment Rates in an Overall Electric Power System. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1991, 6(4): 1396-1403
[42] L.Goel,R.Billinton. Determination of Reliability Worth for Distribution
Systems Planning. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, 1994, 9(3): 1577-1582
[43] L.Goel,R.Billinton. Prediction of Customer ioad Point Service Reliability Worth Estimates in an Electric Power System. IEEE Proc-Gener. Transm.Distrib., 1994,141(4):390-396
[44] Zoran Bozic. Customer Interruption Cost Calculation for Reliability Economics:Practical Considerations. IEEE, 2000:1095-1100
[45] 傅家骥，仝允桓主编．工业技术经济学．北京．清华大学出版社，2001
[46] R.Billinton,S.Kumar etal. A Reliability Test System for Educational Purposes-Basic Data. IEEE, Transaction on Power System, 1989,4(8): 1238-1244
[47] 曹世光，柳焯，于尔铿．缺电成本与可靠性规划的研究．电网技术，1997，21(9)：52-57
[48] 张智光．城网供用电的经济性与现行电价政策的合理性分析．电网技术，2001，25(6)：48-51
[49] 曹世光，柳焯，于尔铿．分级电价的研究．电网技术，1997，21(2)：66-69
[2] L.Goel,R.Billinton. Evaluation of Interrupted Energy Assessment Rates in Distribution Systems. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 1991,6(4): 1876-1882
[3] 周家启，任震泽．电力系统可靠性评估，重庆．科学技术文献出版社重庆分社，1984
[4] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton etal. Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power Systems Reliability Evaluation (1992-1996). IEEE Transactions on PAS, 1999,14(1):51-57
[5] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton etal. Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power Systems Reliability Evaluation (1987-1991). IEEE Transactions on PAS, 1994,9(1): 41-48
[6] G.Tollefson, R.Billinton. Comprehensive Bibliography on Reliability Worth and Electrical Service Consumer Interruption Costs:1981-1990. IEEE Transactions on PAS, 1991,6(4): 1508-1513
[7] 别朝红，王锡凡．蒙特卡罗法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用．电力系统自动化，1997，21(6)：68-75
[8] 张焰．电网规划中的模糊可靠性评估方法．中国电机工程学报，2000，20(11)：77-80
[9] 牛辉，程浩忠，张焰，陈陈．电网扩展规划的可靠性和经济性研究综述．电力系统自动化，2000，24(1)：51-56
[10] C.W. Gellings, F.P. Sioshansi. Demand-Side Management: The Third Wave.Energy Policy. Fairmont Press, 1995,23 (2): 111-114
[11] 童陆园，郭日彩，韩英铎等，具有FACTS设备的输电网络长期规划可靠性优化方法及三峡，华中，华东，四川联网可靠性优化．中国电机工程学报，1999，19(1)：6-9
[12] 张纯．电力经济与管理．北京．水利水电出版社．1990
[13] 吴竞昌主编．中国电力百科全书．电力系统卷[M]．北京：中国电力出版社，1995
[14] 程林，郭永基．暂态能量函数法用于可靠性安全性评估．清华大学学报(自然科学版)2001，41(3)：5-8
[15] 王德生，郭永基译．电力系统可靠性．北京．水利水电出版社．1988
[16] 陈章潮，唐德光．城市电网规划与改造．北京．中国电力出版社，1998
[17] 杨莳百，戴景宸，孙启宏．电力系统可靠性分析基础及应用．第一版．北京．水利水电出版社，1986
[18] 范明天，张祖平，岳宗斌译．配电网络规划与设计．第一版．北京．中国电力出版社．1999
[19] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton etal. A Reliability Test Systems For Educational purposes---Basic Distribution System Data And Results. IEEE Trans. Power Systems, 1991,6(2),813-820
[20] 毛钧焘译．电力系统可靠度和计划的经济性理论和实例分析．北京．水利水电出版社，1987
[21] L.Goel. Power System Reliability Cost/Benefit Assessment and Application in Perspective. Computer & Electrical Egineering, 1998,24:315-324
[22] 张焰．电网规划忠中的可靠性成本效益分析研究．电力系统自动化，1999，23(15)：33-36
[23] 曹世光，杨以涵，于尔铿，缺电成本及其评估方法．电网技术，1996，20(1)：72-74
[24] M.Bernstein, Y. Hegory. Economic Costs of Electricity Shortages. Electricity Reliability: Special Issue. Energy Journal, 1998,19:173-188
[25] K.K.Kariuki,R.N.Allan. Factors affecting Customer outage costs due to electric service interruptions. IEEE Proc-Oener. Transm. Distrib, 1996,143(6):521-528
[26] O.Waeker, R.Billinton. Customer Cost of Electric Service. Proceeding of the IEEE, 1989,77(6):919-930
[27] K.K.Kariuki, R.N.Allan. Assessment of Customer Outage Costs due to Electric Service Interruptions: residential sector.IEEE Proc-Gener.Transm. Distrib, 1996,142(2): 163-170
[28] Arun P Sanhui, Neal J.Balu,Mark G.Lauby. Power System Reliability Planning Practices in North America. IEEE Trans. On Power Systems, 1991,6(4):1485-1492
[29] Kanuki K K, Allan R N. Reliability Worth in Distribution Plant Replacement Programmers, The Reliability of Transmission and Distribution Equipment,Conference Publication 1995, No.406:162-167
[30] A.O.Massaud, M.Th. Schilling, J.P. Hernandez. Electricity Restriction Costs.
IEEE Proc-Gener. Transm. Distrib, 1994,141 (4): 299-304
[31] J.Gates, G.Wacker, R.Billinton. Development of Customer Survey Instruments for Reliability Worth Evaluation in Electric Power Systems. IEEE WESCANEX'95 Proceedings,1995:12-17
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