台风/飓风影响海区固定式平台设计标准及服役期安全度风险分析
|
摘要
海洋平台结构是海洋油气资源开发的基础性设施,是海上生产作业和生活的基地。每年夏季台风、飓风诱发的狂风、巨浪等极端环境荷载都会给海洋平台结构带来考验；一旦发生事故,不仅会给国家带来巨大的经济损失和社会影响,其造成的海洋污染将是灾难性的。2005年Katrina飓风导致美国墨西哥湾平台倒塌的事故使我们认识到：对极端环境荷载考量不足使得平台标高、设防标准偏低；以及平台老化导致的抗力衰减使其不能承受极端载荷的作用是此次事故中平台大量倒塌的重要原因。
为达到减小环境荷载设计风险,了解和掌握服役期平台可靠度的目的,本文做了以下三点创新性工作：
●本文结合复合极值分布理论,提出了海洋环境荷载参数设计风险概念和海洋平台标高求解法。对因极值模型、取样方法、取样区间、参数求解方法等方面存在的各种不确定性而导致的设计风险进行了探讨；并使用了多维复合极值分布模式,对天文大潮、风暴潮、波高各因素同时出现的极端海况进行了概率预测,并用于平台标高的确定。
●海洋平台的构件缺陷、机械损伤、疲劳和裂纹扩展的损伤积累等不利因素都将导致平台整体抗力的衰减、影响结构的服役安全度和耐久性。因此基于时变可靠度理论的海洋平台风险分析具有更重要的理论和实际意义。鉴于以往研究只侧重结构抗力时变衰减研究,忽视对环境荷载时变性问题的考虑,本论文在研究了腐蚀、海生物等对平台抗力衰减的时变分析后,提出基于贝叶斯理论和等效荷载法的海洋环境荷载时变可靠度求解法。由于本方法使用服役期内结构真实环境资料对环境荷载参数进行了更新,因此可靠度计算结果更加合理。
●台风灾害由南到北,遍及我国沿海各省；而我国目前已探明油气资源在渤海、黄海、东海、南海等海域均有分布。由于地理位置、海洋环境等方面的不同,不同海区台风的气象特征及致灾因素往往也呈现较大差异。为使海洋环境条件研究成果更好地为海洋产业规划和资源开发服务,构建海洋环境条件的参数区划是发展的必然趋势。本论文在自主研发的“台风灾害区划、设防标准双层嵌套模式”基础上,对我国海区进行了区划研究：即考虑了各海区台风强度、频次及其诱发的各种灾害的机制及概率特征,以此为基础构建了我国各海区台风灾害区划,研究成果可为我国海洋工程的防灾规划及设防标准制定提供重要参考。
Offshore platforms are the basic facilities for offshore oil exploitation and worker living. The extreme environment loading induced by typhoons and hurricanes in ever summer gives austere challenge to offshore platform structure. The platform will result huge economic loss and social impact in the event of platforms failure. Hurricane Katrina and Rita in 2005 resulted in the largest number of destroyed and damaged platforms in the history of Gulf of Mexico operations. The lessons from accident have taught us that the lower defence criteria of the platform and structure resistance reduction are the chief reason for the failure.
In order to reduce the risk in the design stage and realize and command the reliability of existing platforms, this thesis performed three innovative studies as followed.
●Based on the compound extreme value distribution, the concept of parameters design risk for ocean environmental load and Solving Method of platform deck elevation against the largest hurricane are proposed in this thesis.The risks in the design stage caused by uncertainties existing in extreme theory, sampling method, samples interval and statistics parameters solving method are discussed and the multivariate compound extreme value distribution (MCEVD) model is used to predict the deck elevation with different combination of tide, surge height and crest height.
●Under the action of natural and service environments, the performance of structure in the course of long-term service will deteriorate gradually due to components defect, mechanical damage, fatigue and material deterioration, which would cause structural resistance and reliability to decrease.The research of time-dependent reliability has important theoretic and practical meaning. Previous studies pay more attention to the structure resistance deterioration while ignoring the dynamic characteristics of ocean environment loads.The deterioration of ultimate bearing capacity caused by corrosion and marine growth was research and the time-dependent reliability of environment loads solving calculation method which based on the Bayesian theory and equivalent load method was proposed in this thesis.The calculations predicted by this method were reasonable because of the environment loads updating.
●All of the ocean oilfields are in the typhoon-affected region in China and the typhoon characteristics and disaster factors are different. For prevention and mitigation of typhoon disasters in offshore engineering, in this paper a double-layer nested model of typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria is proposed. Considering the frequency and intensity of typhoon and its induced disaster, the sea area zoning was proposed and it will supply reasonable references to decision-making of protection criterion and risk assessment for offshore engineering.
为达到减小环境荷载设计风险,了解和掌握服役期平台可靠度的目的,本文做了以下三点创新性工作：
●本文结合复合极值分布理论,提出了海洋环境荷载参数设计风险概念和海洋平台标高求解法。对因极值模型、取样方法、取样区间、参数求解方法等方面存在的各种不确定性而导致的设计风险进行了探讨；并使用了多维复合极值分布模式,对天文大潮、风暴潮、波高各因素同时出现的极端海况进行了概率预测,并用于平台标高的确定。
●海洋平台的构件缺陷、机械损伤、疲劳和裂纹扩展的损伤积累等不利因素都将导致平台整体抗力的衰减、影响结构的服役安全度和耐久性。因此基于时变可靠度理论的海洋平台风险分析具有更重要的理论和实际意义。鉴于以往研究只侧重结构抗力时变衰减研究,忽视对环境荷载时变性问题的考虑,本论文在研究了腐蚀、海生物等对平台抗力衰减的时变分析后,提出基于贝叶斯理论和等效荷载法的海洋环境荷载时变可靠度求解法。由于本方法使用服役期内结构真实环境资料对环境荷载参数进行了更新,因此可靠度计算结果更加合理。
●台风灾害由南到北,遍及我国沿海各省；而我国目前已探明油气资源在渤海、黄海、东海、南海等海域均有分布。由于地理位置、海洋环境等方面的不同,不同海区台风的气象特征及致灾因素往往也呈现较大差异。为使海洋环境条件研究成果更好地为海洋产业规划和资源开发服务,构建海洋环境条件的参数区划是发展的必然趋势。本论文在自主研发的“台风灾害区划、设防标准双层嵌套模式”基础上,对我国海区进行了区划研究：即考虑了各海区台风强度、频次及其诱发的各种灾害的机制及概率特征,以此为基础构建了我国各海区台风灾害区划,研究成果可为我国海洋工程的防灾规划及设防标准制定提供重要参考。
Offshore platforms are the basic facilities for offshore oil exploitation and worker living. The extreme environment loading induced by typhoons and hurricanes in ever summer gives austere challenge to offshore platform structure. The platform will result huge economic loss and social impact in the event of platforms failure. Hurricane Katrina and Rita in 2005 resulted in the largest number of destroyed and damaged platforms in the history of Gulf of Mexico operations. The lessons from accident have taught us that the lower defence criteria of the platform and structure resistance reduction are the chief reason for the failure.
In order to reduce the risk in the design stage and realize and command the reliability of existing platforms, this thesis performed three innovative studies as followed.
●Based on the compound extreme value distribution, the concept of parameters design risk for ocean environmental load and Solving Method of platform deck elevation against the largest hurricane are proposed in this thesis.The risks in the design stage caused by uncertainties existing in extreme theory, sampling method, samples interval and statistics parameters solving method are discussed and the multivariate compound extreme value distribution (MCEVD) model is used to predict the deck elevation with different combination of tide, surge height and crest height.
●Under the action of natural and service environments, the performance of structure in the course of long-term service will deteriorate gradually due to components defect, mechanical damage, fatigue and material deterioration, which would cause structural resistance and reliability to decrease.The research of time-dependent reliability has important theoretic and practical meaning. Previous studies pay more attention to the structure resistance deterioration while ignoring the dynamic characteristics of ocean environment loads.The deterioration of ultimate bearing capacity caused by corrosion and marine growth was research and the time-dependent reliability of environment loads solving calculation method which based on the Bayesian theory and equivalent load method was proposed in this thesis.The calculations predicted by this method were reasonable because of the environment loads updating.
●All of the ocean oilfields are in the typhoon-affected region in China and the typhoon characteristics and disaster factors are different. For prevention and mitigation of typhoon disasters in offshore engineering, in this paper a double-layer nested model of typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria is proposed. Considering the frequency and intensity of typhoon and its induced disaster, the sea area zoning was proposed and it will supply reasonable references to decision-making of protection criterion and risk assessment for offshore engineering.
引文
[1]方华灿.海洋环境载荷的不确定性分析,石油机械,1994,22(9)：25-30
[2]秦炳军,张圣坤.海洋工程风险评估的现状和发展,海洋工程,1998,16(1)：14-21
[3]严世华.论海上边际油气田的勘探开发[J],中国海洋平台,1996,11(1)：16-24,
[4]金伟良,宋志刚,赵羽习.工程结构全寿命可靠性与灾害作用下的安全性,浙江大学学报(工学版),2006,40(11)：1862-1868
[5]E Simiu, NA Heckert.Extreme wind distribution tails:a peaks over threshold approach.J. Struct. Eng,1996,122:539-547
[6]RL Smith.Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events.J. Hydrol, 1986,86:27-43
[7]CG Soares, MG Scotto.Application of the r largest-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave height.Coast. Eng,2004,51:387-394.
[8]Liu TF and Ma FS.Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities.Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Division, ASCE,1980,106, No.WW4:469-479
[9]Liu Tefu. Long Term Distributions of Hurricane Characteristics.Proc.Offshore Technology Conference OTC 4325:305-313
[10]Liu Tefu.Long Term Distributions of Hurricane Characteristics.Proc.Offshore Technology Conference OTC 4325:305-313
[11]Liu Defu, Li huajun, Wen Shuqin, Song Yan, Wang Shuqing.Prediction of Extreme Significant Wave Height from Daily Maxima.China Ocean Engineering,2001,15(1): 97-106
[12]J. A. Tawn, Bivariate extreme value theory:models and estimation, Biometric,1988, 75(3):397-415
[13]S.G Coles and J. A Tawn.,Modelling Extreme Multivariate Events.J. R. Statist.Soc.B, 1991,53(2):377-392
[14]J. A Tawn.Modelling Multivariate Extreme Value Distributions.Biometrika,1990, 77(2):245-253
[15]R. L Smith, J. A Tawn, Yuen H K. Statistics of Multivariate Extremes. Int.Statist.Inst.Rev.,1990,58(1):47-58
[16]S. G Coles and J. A Tawn. Statistical Methods for Multivariate Extremes:An Application to Structural Design. Appl.Statist.,1994,43(1):1-48
[17]Liu D. F, Wen SQ, Wang L. P. Poison-Gumbel Mixed Compound Distribution and its application. Chinese Science Bulletin,2002,47(22):1901-1906.
[18]Freudenthal A. M. The safety of structures.Proc.of ASCE,1945
[19]Hohenbiehler M.,Raekwitz R.,Non-Nomral Devendent Vectors in structural Safety, ASCE,J. Eng. Meeh. Div.,1981,107(ME6):1227-1228
[20]Hasofer A.M.,Lind N. C.,Exact and Invariant Second-Moment Code Format J. Eng. Meeh. Div.,ASCE,1974,100(1):111-121
[21]George Gazetas.Ke Fan,Amr Kaynia. Dynamic response of pile groups with different configurations[J],Soil Dynamic and Earthquake Engineering.1993,12:239-257.
[22]赵国藩,金伟良,贡金鑫.结构可靠度理论[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2000
[23]邓建,李夕兵,古德生.结构可靠性分析的多项式数值逼近法[J].计算力学学报.2002,19(2)：212-216
[24]Han Pinghong, Lind N C. Approximate reliability analysis using normal polynomial and simulation results[J].Structural Safety,1996,18(4):329-339
[25]宫凤强,李夕兵,邓建.工程结构可靠性分析的高阶矩法研究.中国工程科学,8-5,2006,69-73
[26]张小庆.结构体系可靠度分析方法研究,大连理工大学博士学位论文,2003
[27]Murotsu Y.,Okada H.,Niwa K.,etal.Reliability analysis of truss structures by using matrix methods. Trans. ASME,J. Meeh. Design,1980,102(4):749-756
[28]Thoft-Christensen P.,Sorensen J. D. Reliability of structural systems with correlated elements.Applied Mathematical Modeling,1982,6:171-178
[29]蔡迎建,孙炔纯.结构失效模式的快速识别方法.大连理工大学学报,1999,39(4)：489-493
[30]赵鹏飞.对分枝限界法的一种改进.四川建筑科学研究,1997,4：40-45.
[31]Sigurdsson G et al.,Probability collapse analysis of jackets[C].Proc.Of ICOSSAR'93,Innsbruck,Austria,1993,535-543
[32]王光远,结构服役期间的动态可靠度及维修理论初探[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(2)
[33]Hiroyuki Kameda,Takeshi Koike.Reliability Theory of Deterioration Structures. Journal of the Structural Division,1975,101(1)
[34]Putcha C. S.,Patev R.,Leggett M. A. Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Steel miter Gates,International Journal of Modelling and Simulation,2003,23(1):1～12
[35]J C Halpin&Thomas A Johson. Kinetic Fracture Models and Structural Reliability. Int.Journal of Fracture Mech. No. B.1972
[36]杨栋.基于时变可靠度的桥梁剩余承载力评估,兰州理工大学硕士论文,2008
[37]李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.钢闸门结构时变刚度模型及其可靠度评估.上海交通大学学报,2003,37(7)：1114-1118
[38]王立成,宋玉普,康海贵.海洋平台结构腐蚀损伤动态可靠性分析,中国海洋平台,2003,18(1),23-27
[39]索清辉,钱永久,段敬民.工程结构时变失效概率分析,中国铁道科学,2005,26(2),69-72
[40]J. N. Yang, M. D. Liu. Residual Strength Degradation Model and Theory of Periodic Proof Tests for Graphite/epoxy Laminates. J. Composite Materials, Vol.11,1977
[41]J. N. Yang, R. K. Miller, C. T. Sun. Effect of High Load on Statistical fatigue of Unnotched Graphite/epoxy Laminates. J. Composite Materials.Vol.14,1980
[42]欧进萍,段忠东.基于随机裂纹扩展机制的构件抗力衰减分析,机械强度,1994,15(3)：46-51.
[43]周明砚,考虑疲劳和腐蚀损伤及维修因素的船体梁时变可靠性分析,武汉理工大学硕士论文,2001
[44]寇雄,李亚,张晖疲劳和腐蚀损伤下船体的瞬时与时变可靠性分析,中国海洋平台,2006：11-16
[45]施兴华,徐定海,张婧,王善.基于随机过程理论的舰船结构时变可靠性分析,哈尔滨工程大学学报,2008,29(2)：135-150
[46]赵尚传,赵国藩,贡金鑫.抗力随时间变化非承载力因素对结构可靠性影响,大连理工大学学报,2002,42(5)：574-579
[47]Mori Y, Elling wood R. Time Dependent System Reliability Analysis Adaptive Importance Sampling,St ructural Safety,1993,12(1)
[48]Hall P. L.,Strutt J. E. Probabilistic Physics-of-failure Models for Component Reliabilities Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Weibull Analysis:a Parametric Study, Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2003,80:233～242
[49]唐利民,肖熙结构强度随时间变化的平台结构可靠性分析,上海交通大学学报,1996,30(10)：15-27
[50]王剑,刘西拉.基于多层Bayes先验抗力模型的结构信息更新,上海交通大学学报,2004,38(6)：937-940
[51]张俊芝,苏小卒.基于实测样本值和Bayesian方法的服役结构抗力随机时变模型,工业建筑,2005,35(3)：30-32
[52]李正农,袁文阳.基于灰色系统理论的结构时变可靠度分析.武汉水利电力大学学报,1996,29(6)：163-16
[53]吕颖钊,贺拴海.在役桥梁承载力模糊可靠性的马尔科夫预测,长安大学学报(自然科学版)2005,25(4)：39-43
[54]张爱林,赵国藩,王光远现役结构模糊动态可靠度评估实用方法,应用基础与工程科学学报,1998,6(1)：83-90
[55]张苑竹,金伟良.神经网络在混凝土结构可靠度评估中的应用.科技通报,2002,18(6)：495-200
[56]牛荻涛.服役结构的抗力衰减模型与可靠性研究(二十一世纪土木工程学科的发展趋势)北京：科学出版社,1997.74-82
[57]左勇志,刘西拉.结构动态可靠性的全随机过程模型,清华大学学报,2004,44(3)：395-405
[58]贡金鑫,赵国藩.考虑抗力随时间变化的结构可靠度分析.建筑结构学报,1998,19(5)：43-51
[59]Schwerdt R W, Ho F P, Wakins R R.,Meteorological criteria for standard Project Hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States.1979,NOAA Tech Rept NWS23.
[60]Georgiou P N, Davenport A G, Vickery P J. Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones. J Wind Eng Ind Aer,1983,13:139～152
[61]Vickery, P. J. and Twisdale,L. A. Wind-field and filling models for hurricane wind speed predictions. J. Struct.Engrg.,ASCE.1995, Vol.121,No.11,pp1700-1709
[62]William M Gray.Twentieth Century Challenges and Milestones. Hurricane!Coping with Disaster, Am Geophys Union,2003.10.1029/055SP02:3-37.
[63]Liu Defu,Pang Liang, Xie Botao.Typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria—A double layer nested multi-objective probability model and its application. Science in China Series E.2008,38(5):698-707.
[64]杨晓华,沈珍瑶.智能算法及其在资源环境系统建模中的应用.北京：北京师范大学出版社,2005,136-138
[65]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用(第三版).北京：科学出版社,2004.1,129
[66]H Tong. Threshold Models in Non-linear Time Series Analysis, Lecture Notes in Statistics.Springer-Verlag,1983
[67]Granger C W J and Andersen, A P. An Introduction to Bilinear Time SeriesModels. Gottingen:Vandenhoeck and Ruprecht,1978
[68]Granger C W J and Morris,O. Time series Modeling and Interpretation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A,1976,139:246-257
[69]Hamilton J D. A new Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica,1989,45:39-70
[70]Kuan C M and White H. Artificial Neural Networks:An Econometric Perspective (with Discussion).Econometric Reviews,1994,13:140-143
[71]Brock W A. Distinguishing Random and Determinstic Systems:Abridged Version. Statistical Association,1986,65:509-526
[72]Granger C W J and Newbold P. Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics,1974,2.111-120
[73]特伦斯C.米尔斯.金融时间序列的经济计量学模型.俞卓著译.北京：经济科学出版社,2002
[74]Phillips P C B. Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics,1986,33:311-340
[75]Sargan J D and Bhargava A S.Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk. Econornetrica,1983,51:153-174
[1]谢彬,于皓.API RP 2A设计参数的合理选取,中国海上油气(工程),2000,12(1)：10-14
[2]张俊香,李平日,黄光庆新奥尔良飓风灾难与华南沿海台风暴潮,热带地理,2006,26(3),218-222
[3]王晓东,王冠军,姜付仁。卡特里娜飓风的影响及启示,水利发展研究,2005,12：8-13
[4]Puskar, F. J.,Aggarwal, R. K., Cornell, C.A.,Moses, F. and Petrauskas, C.,A Comparison of Analytical Predicted Platform Damage During Hurricane Andrew, Offshore Technology Conference, OTC No.7473,May 1994.
[5]ABS Consulting (ABSC), Hurricane Lili's impact on Fixed Platforms, Final Report to MMS, June 2004.
[6]Energo Engineering, Assessment of Fixed Offshore Platform Performance in Hurrican Andrew, Lili and Ivan, report submitted to MMS, January 2006.
[7]Energo Engineering, Assessment of Fixed Offshore Platform Performance in Hurricane Katrina and Rita, report submitted to MMS, May 2007.
[8]MMS,2008,MMS Completes Assessment of Destroyed and Damaged Facilities from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, Posted on MMS Website, December.
[9]HSE, The Costs of Accidents at Work, HSG 96, Health and Safety Executive,HSE Books, Sudbury, UK,1997.
[10]Stiff, J.J.,MODU Risk-MODU Mooring Comparative Risk Assessment, Offshore Technology Conference, OTC No.20143,May 2009.
[11]Stahl,B.,S.Aune, J. Gebara and C.A.Cornell,Acceptance Criteria for Offshore Platforms, Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Vol.122, August 2000, pp.153-156.
[12]THIC-Iwan, W.D., Thiel, C.C, Housner, G.W.,Cornell, C.A., Seismic Safety Requalification of Offshore Platforms, Prepared for API, May 1992.
[13]Relliabiliy vs.Consequence of failure for API RP 2A Fixed platforms using Api bulletin 2INT-MET. Final report,2009, Energo Engineering, Houston.
[14]ISO 19901-2, Seismic Design Procedures and Criteria, International Organization for Standardization,2004.
[15]ISO 19902, Fixed Steel Offshore Structures, International Organization for Standardization, 2008.
[16]Vinnem J E. Quantified risk assessment for offshore petroleum installations. Lecture notes for "81064 Risk analysis of marine structure" in NTNU.1996.
[17]Vinnem J E.Evaluation of methodology for QRA in offshore operation. Reliability engineering and system safety.1998,61:39-52.
[18]Liu D F, Li F L, Risk Assessment of Breakwater Wave Overtopping. Proc.APAC2005,Jeju, Korea, APAC,2005:1579-1589
[1]欧进萍,段忠东,肖仪清.海洋平台结构安全评定,科学出版社2003年
[2]方华灿.海洋环境载荷的不确定性分析,石油机械,1994,22(9)：25-30
[3]Ferreira J.,Guedes Soares C.(1998). "An application of the Peaks OverThreshold method to predict extremes of significant wave height," Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering,120:165--176
[4]Martins E, Stedinger J R. Generalized maximum likelihood Pareto-Poisson estimation for partial duration series[J].Water Resources Research,2001,37(10):2551-2557
[5]Stewart D. A.,Essenwanger O.M.Frequency distribution of wind speed near the surface[J]. Appl.Meteor,1978,17:1633-1642.
[6]C.Cunnane,(1973)."A particular comparison of annual maxima and partial duration series methods of flood frequency prediction," Journal of Hydrology 18, (3/4):257～271.
[7]仇学艳,王超,秦崇仁.阈值法在河海工程设计中的应用,水利学报,2001,8：32-37
[8]Liu, T.F. and Ma, F.S.Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities, J.the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean division,1980.106(4):469～479.
[9]孟庆珍,唐谟智.成都地面气温与风速年极大值的渐近分布及参数估计.成都气象学院学报,1997,4：284-291
[10]孟庆珍,杜健.成都地面风速年极值的4种分布函数拟合结果的比较.成都信息工程学院学报,2001,5：97-104
[11]Xie Botao, et al.Statistical Prediction of Long Term Characteristics for Typhoon Induced Rainstorm and Inundation in China. Proc.of the 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. And Arctic Eng, Estoril, Portugal, OMAE2008.Paper No.57017
[12]wangchao, Liu De-fu, Undefined analysis of selecting design wave factors [J],ACTA, CEANOLOGICA SINICA 1991,13(4):874-881
[13]Goda Y.On the methodology of selecting design wave heinht.21rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering.ASCE,1988,899-913
[14]Donald T. Resio, et al.White Paper on Estimation Hurricane Inundation Probabilities, U.S.Army Corps of Engineering Report,2007,:1-10.
[15]Knutson T R,Tuleya R E,Kurihara Y. Simulate increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate. Science,1998.279(2):1018-1020
[16]Chen Lianshou, Luo Huibang,Duan Yihong,et al.An overview of tropical cyclone and tropical meteorology research progress. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2004.21 (3):505-514
[17]李爱平,沈红梅,石少华.西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化特征分析.海洋预报,2006.23(3)：64-71
[18]李宪之.论热带气旋[M].北京：气象出版社.1983；14-16
[19]史道济.实用极值统计方法,天津科学技术出版社.天津2006
[20]RL Smith.Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events.J.Hydrol,1986,86:27-43.
[21]CG Soares, MG Scotto.Application of the r largest-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave height.Coast. Eng,2004,51:387-394.
[22]Langley RM, AH El-Shaarawi.On The Calculation of Extreme Wave Heights:A Review.Ocean Engineering,1986,13(1):93-118
[1]Y. K. Wen and H. Banon,Development of Environmental Combination Design Criteria for Fixed Platform in the Gulf of Mexico. OTC 6540, Proceedings of the Offshore Technology Conference, Houston,1991:365-375
[2]Frieze, P.A.,Morandi, A.C.,Birkinshaw, M.,Smith, D.,Dixon, A.T.,Fixed and Jack-up Platforms:Basis for Reliability Assessment. Marine Structures, May,1997,10(4):263-284
[3]M. Olagnon, R. Nerzic and M.Prevosto, Extreme Water Level from Joint Distributions of Tide, Surge and Crests:a Case Study, Proceedings of the Ninth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Brest, France,,1999,May 30-June 4
[4]Niedzwecki, J.M.,van de Lindt, J.W.,Gage, J.H.,Teigen, P.S.,Design Estimates of Surface Wave Interaction with Compliant Deepwater Platforms,Ocean Engineering, Volume 27, Issue 8, August 2000:867-888
[5]Liu T F, Ma F S.,Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities. J Waterway Port Coast Ocean,1980, Div, ASCE,106, No.WW4,469-479.
[6]R M Langley, A H El-Shaarawi.On the calculation of extreme wave heights:A review. Ocean Eng.,1986,13(1):93-118.
[7]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛,伍远康.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究—双层嵌套多目标联合概率模式及其应用.中国科学E辑.2008,38(5)：698～707
[8]Liu D. F, Wen S.Q, Wang L. P. Poison-Gumbel Mixed Compound Distribution and its application. Chinese Science Bulletin,2002, Vol.47, No.22,1901-1906.
[9]Stuart G Coles and Jonathan A Tawn..Statiscs of coastal flood prevention. Phil Trans. R, Soc.A, 1990,332:457-476
[10]Jonathan A Tawn.. Modeling multivariate extreme value distributions. Biometrika, 1990,77(2):245-253.
[11]Shi daoji, Zhou Shengsheng. Moment Estimation for Multivariate Extreme Value Distribution in a Nested Logistic Model.Ann Inst Statist Math,1999,51(2):253-264.
[12]金伟良,陈海江,庄一舟.极端波浪对海洋导管架平台的作用及其模型试验研究海洋工程 1999，17(4)：33-38
[13]Wen Y.K. Environmental event combination criteria Phase I,risk analysis.API PARC-87-20,Research report,1988
[14]Bea R G Effects of water wave kinematics uncertainty on design criteria for offshore structures in water wave kinematics 1990:103-159
[15]Olufsen A,Bea R G. Uncertainties in extreme wave loading on fixed offshore platforms Proceedings of Ninth International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. OMAE'90,ASME.1990:15-31
[16]American Petroleum Institute (API).2002.Recommended Practice for Planning, Designing and Constructing Fixed Offshore Platforms". API RP 2A, Twenty-First Edition, Washington, D.C.
[17]DET NORSKE VERITAS, Rules For The Design Construction and Inspection of Offshore Structures,1997.
[18]M. Olagnon, R. Nerzic and M.Prevosto, Extreme Water Level from Joint Distributions of Tide, Surge and Crests:a Case Study, Proceedings of the Ninth(1999) International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Brest, France, May 30-June 4,1999
[19]Energo.2007.Assessment of fixed offshore platform performance in hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Report to MMS by Energo Engineering, Inc.,Energo Engineering Project No.:E06117.
[20]Energo.2006. Assessment of Fixed Offshore Platform performance in Hurricanes Andrew, Lili and Ivan, Report to MMS by Energo Engineering, Inc., TAR No.549.
[21]Forristall,2007, Metocean Conditions at Platforms in the Path of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Forristall Ocean Engineering, Inc., March 2007.
[22]API BULL2INT-DG.2007.Interim Guidance for Design of Offshore Structures for Hurricane Conditions, API BULL2INT-DG, First Edition, Washington, D.C.
[23]温书勤,二维复合极值分布及其在近海工程中的应用,中国海洋大学硕士论文,2002
[24]宋艳,多维联合概率的随机模拟技术及其工程应用中国海洋大学博士论文,2004
[25]Daniel T. Cox, and Christopher P. Scott,Exceedance Probability for Wave Overtopping on a Fixed Deck,Ocean Engineering,2001,Vol.28, Issue 6,pp707-721
[26]俞聿修编著,随机波浪及其工程应用,大连理工大学出版社,2000
[27]Zhou Liu and Hans F. Burcharth, "Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height" Coastal Engineering,1998,1027-1038
[28]王莉萍.多维复合极值分布理论及其工程应用.中国海洋大学,博士学位论文.2005
[1]张俊芝服役工程结构可靠性理论及其应用中国水利水电出版社,2007.
[2]Ang A H-S.Extended reliability basic of structural design under uncertainties.Annals of Reliability and Maintainability,1970(9)
[3]刘德辅.海洋和海岸工程可靠度分析的几个问题.青岛海洋大学学报,1995,1-8
[4]U.Bourgund,.and C.G.Bucher, Importance Sampling Procedure Using Design Point, Research Report of Univ. of Innsbruck, Nov.1986
[5]Srinivasan, Rajan, Importance Sampling:Applications in Communications and Detection, Berlin; New York:Springer,2002
[6]Bourgund,U.,Ouypornprasert,W.,Prenninger,P.H.W., Advanced Simulation Methods for the Estimation of Systems Reliability, Internal Working Report 19, Inst. of Eng. Mech., Univ. of Innsbruck, October 1986
[7]Srinivasan, Rajan, Importance Sampling:Applications in Communications and Detection, Berlin; New York:Springer,2002
[8]Harbitz A.Efficient and Accurate Probability of Failure Calculation by Use of the Importance Sampling Technique, Proc 4th. International Conference on Application of Statistics and Probability in Soil and Structural Engineering, Bologna, Italy:Pragora Editric,1983:825-836
[9]傅旭东.相关变量下失效概率的计算机模拟,西南交通大学学报,1997,32：319-323
[10]吕震宙.多设计准则下多变量多模式结构可靠性理论及应用,西北工业大学博士论文,1993.10
[11]Melchers R. E, Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, New York:Ellis Horwood Limited, 1987
[12]李亚东.重要抽样模拟及其在结构可靠度计算中的应用,西南交通大学学报,1992 4：105-111
[13]裴永刚,谭文辉.工程结构时变可靠度理论的发展与应用.工业建筑,2005,35：135-138
[14]李晓东.固定式海洋平台基于GUA&GSA技术的定量风险评估方法的研究.中国海洋大学硕士学位论文.2005
[15]宋艳.多维联合概率的随机模拟技术及其工程应用,中国海洋大学博士学位论文,2004
[1]海上固定平台入级与建造规范[S]1992,中国船级社
[2]韩小风.导管架平台的极限承载力分析,中国海洋大学硕士论文,2007
[3]Freeman S.A.,Nicoletti J.P.,Tyrrell J. V. Evaluation of Existing Buildings for Seismic Risk, A Case Study of Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, Bremerton, Washington [J].Proceedings of t he 1st U.S.National Conference on Earthquake Engineering,1975:9-201
[4]API RP 2A2LRFD. Recommended Practice for Planning,Designing and Const ructing Fixed Off shore Platforms2Load and Resistance Factor Design.1993.
[5]尚晓江,等.ANSYS结构有限元高级分析方法与范例应用中国水利水电出版社2005
[6]徐兴平,黄东升,李继志.渤海八号平台腐蚀评估,中国海洋平台,2001,16-3,39-42
[7]欧进萍,段忠东,肖仪清.海洋平台结构安全评定—理论、方法与应用[M].北京：科学出版社.2003
[8]蔺石柱,李燕飞,杨丽梅在役结构可靠度分析中的荷载研究包头钢铁学院学报2004,23(4)：376-379
[9]张俊芝.服役工程结构可靠性理论及其应用中国水利水电出版社,2007.
[10]周道成,段忠东,欧进萍海洋环境要素极值更新概率模型,土木工程学报,2008,41(5)：100-105
[11]BoxG.E. P, Tiao G. C, Bayes Inference in Statistical Analysis, Addison--Wesley. Reading,1973.
[12]Singh R.S. R Empirical Bayes estimation with convergence rates in continuous Lebesgue-exponential families.Ann. Statist.,1976,4:431-39
[13]王起,王超,王东超.用贝叶斯方法推算设计波高.海洋预报,1995,12(4)：59-66
[14]金伟良.工程荷载组合理论与应用2006机械工业出版社
[15]黄修明,尹建德,刘建军,彭树杰.渤海石油平台附着生物生态的研究.海洋科学集刊.1994,35：131-141
[16]刘孔忠,官耀华,仲华.平湖油气田平台导管架防海生物装置的应用.中国海上油气(工程)2003,15(1),50-52
[17]中仲翰,许滨,赵强,吕聪钢.结构海洋平台整体安全性评估方法研究中国海洋平台.1994,9(1)：129-135
[18]R.G. Bea et.al,Quallty Assuranee in Building and operation of Marine Structures.Port for ISSC (Vol.2),St. John's,Canada,September,1994,59-114.
[19]R. G. Bea et. al.Comparative Risk Assessment of Alternative TLP System:Structure and Foundation Aspect,Journal of OMAE.Vol.116,1994:86-96.
[20]Jin Weiliang. Reliability2based design for jacket platform under extreme loads [J].China Ocean Engineering,1996,10 (2):145 160.
[21]姜云鹏.港口及海岸工程设计波浪及相应极端荷载分析理论及方法研究.中国海洋大学硕士学位论文.2007
[1]Schwerdt R W, Ho F P, Wakins R R. Meteorological criteria for standard Project Hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States.1979, NOAA Tech. Rept NWS23
[2]Georgiou P N, Davenport A G,Vickery P J. Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones. J Wind Eng Ind Aer,1983,13:139-152
[3]Vickery, P. J. and Twisdale, L. A.Wind-field and filling models for hurricane wind speed predictions. J. Struct. Engrg.,ASCE.1995,121(11):1700-1709
[4]William M Gray. Twentieth Century Challenges and Milestones. Hurricane!Coping with Disaster, Am Geophys Union,2003.10:3-37
[5]刘德辅,马逢时.Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities, Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean division,ASCE,1980,106, No.WW4,469-479
[6]刘德辅,Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics, Proc.Offshore Technology Conference OTC 4325,Houston,1982,USA,305-313.
[7]GAO, History of the Lake Pontchartrain and Vincinity Hurricane Protection Project,"2005,United States Government Accountability Office.
[8]API BULL 2INT-MET. Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, API BULL2INT-MET, First Edition 2007,Washington, D.C.
[9]Liu Defu, Shi Hongda, PangLiang. Joint probability Analysis of Hurricane Katrina 2005,Proc. International Offshore and Polar Eng. Conf. San Francisco, USA, ISOPE2006-jsc-369
[10]Casson.E and Coles S.,2000,Simulation and extremal analysis of hurricane events, Appl. Statist.49(2):227-245
[11]Coles S.,and Simiv E.,2003,Estimating Uncertainty in the Extreme Value Analysis of Data Generated by a Hurricane Simulation Model, J. of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, 129(11):1288-1294
[12]李荣峰,冀雅珍.水文时间序列分析计算方法的研究进展与展望.山西水利科技,2005,4：4-6.
[13]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.GB/T 19201-2005.中国国家标准化管理委员会.北京：中国标准出版社,2005-01-01
[14]董胜,孔令双.海洋工程环境概论,青岛：中国海洋大学出版社,2005
[15]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛,伍远康.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究—双层嵌套多目标联合概率模式及其应用.中国科学E辑.38(5)：698～707
[16]姜昊.灰色马尔可夫预测模型在台风诱发灾害研究中的应用.中国海洋大学硕士学位论文.2009
[2]秦炳军,张圣坤.海洋工程风险评估的现状和发展,海洋工程,1998,16(1)：14-21
[3]严世华.论海上边际油气田的勘探开发[J],中国海洋平台,1996,11(1)：16-24,
[4]金伟良,宋志刚,赵羽习.工程结构全寿命可靠性与灾害作用下的安全性,浙江大学学报(工学版),2006,40(11)：1862-1868
[5]E Simiu, NA Heckert.Extreme wind distribution tails:a peaks over threshold approach.J. Struct. Eng,1996,122:539-547
[6]RL Smith.Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events.J. Hydrol, 1986,86:27-43
[7]CG Soares, MG Scotto.Application of the r largest-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave height.Coast. Eng,2004,51:387-394.
[8]Liu TF and Ma FS.Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities.Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Division, ASCE,1980,106, No.WW4:469-479
[9]Liu Tefu. Long Term Distributions of Hurricane Characteristics.Proc.Offshore Technology Conference OTC 4325:305-313
[10]Liu Tefu.Long Term Distributions of Hurricane Characteristics.Proc.Offshore Technology Conference OTC 4325:305-313
[11]Liu Defu, Li huajun, Wen Shuqin, Song Yan, Wang Shuqing.Prediction of Extreme Significant Wave Height from Daily Maxima.China Ocean Engineering,2001,15(1): 97-106
[12]J. A. Tawn, Bivariate extreme value theory:models and estimation, Biometric,1988, 75(3):397-415
[13]S.G Coles and J. A Tawn.,Modelling Extreme Multivariate Events.J. R. Statist.Soc.B, 1991,53(2):377-392
[14]J. A Tawn.Modelling Multivariate Extreme Value Distributions.Biometrika,1990, 77(2):245-253
[15]R. L Smith, J. A Tawn, Yuen H K. Statistics of Multivariate Extremes. Int.Statist.Inst.Rev.,1990,58(1):47-58
[16]S. G Coles and J. A Tawn. Statistical Methods for Multivariate Extremes:An Application to Structural Design. Appl.Statist.,1994,43(1):1-48
[17]Liu D. F, Wen SQ, Wang L. P. Poison-Gumbel Mixed Compound Distribution and its application. Chinese Science Bulletin,2002,47(22):1901-1906.
[18]Freudenthal A. M. The safety of structures.Proc.of ASCE,1945
[19]Hohenbiehler M.,Raekwitz R.,Non-Nomral Devendent Vectors in structural Safety, ASCE,J. Eng. Meeh. Div.,1981,107(ME6):1227-1228
[20]Hasofer A.M.,Lind N. C.,Exact and Invariant Second-Moment Code Format J. Eng. Meeh. Div.,ASCE,1974,100(1):111-121
[21]George Gazetas.Ke Fan,Amr Kaynia. Dynamic response of pile groups with different configurations[J],Soil Dynamic and Earthquake Engineering.1993,12:239-257.
[22]赵国藩,金伟良,贡金鑫.结构可靠度理论[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2000
[23]邓建,李夕兵,古德生.结构可靠性分析的多项式数值逼近法[J].计算力学学报.2002,19(2)：212-216
[24]Han Pinghong, Lind N C. Approximate reliability analysis using normal polynomial and simulation results[J].Structural Safety,1996,18(4):329-339
[25]宫凤强,李夕兵,邓建.工程结构可靠性分析的高阶矩法研究.中国工程科学,8-5,2006,69-73
[26]张小庆.结构体系可靠度分析方法研究,大连理工大学博士学位论文,2003
[27]Murotsu Y.,Okada H.,Niwa K.,etal.Reliability analysis of truss structures by using matrix methods. Trans. ASME,J. Meeh. Design,1980,102(4):749-756
[28]Thoft-Christensen P.,Sorensen J. D. Reliability of structural systems with correlated elements.Applied Mathematical Modeling,1982,6:171-178
[29]蔡迎建,孙炔纯.结构失效模式的快速识别方法.大连理工大学学报,1999,39(4)：489-493
[30]赵鹏飞.对分枝限界法的一种改进.四川建筑科学研究,1997,4：40-45.
[31]Sigurdsson G et al.,Probability collapse analysis of jackets[C].Proc.Of ICOSSAR'93,Innsbruck,Austria,1993,535-543
[32]王光远,结构服役期间的动态可靠度及维修理论初探[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(2)
[33]Hiroyuki Kameda,Takeshi Koike.Reliability Theory of Deterioration Structures. Journal of the Structural Division,1975,101(1)
[34]Putcha C. S.,Patev R.,Leggett M. A. Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Steel miter Gates,International Journal of Modelling and Simulation,2003,23(1):1～12
[35]J C Halpin&Thomas A Johson. Kinetic Fracture Models and Structural Reliability. Int.Journal of Fracture Mech. No. B.1972
[36]杨栋.基于时变可靠度的桥梁剩余承载力评估,兰州理工大学硕士论文,2008
[37]李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.钢闸门结构时变刚度模型及其可靠度评估.上海交通大学学报,2003,37(7)：1114-1118
[38]王立成,宋玉普,康海贵.海洋平台结构腐蚀损伤动态可靠性分析,中国海洋平台,2003,18(1),23-27
[39]索清辉,钱永久,段敬民.工程结构时变失效概率分析,中国铁道科学,2005,26(2),69-72
[40]J. N. Yang, M. D. Liu. Residual Strength Degradation Model and Theory of Periodic Proof Tests for Graphite/epoxy Laminates. J. Composite Materials, Vol.11,1977
[41]J. N. Yang, R. K. Miller, C. T. Sun. Effect of High Load on Statistical fatigue of Unnotched Graphite/epoxy Laminates. J. Composite Materials.Vol.14,1980
[42]欧进萍,段忠东.基于随机裂纹扩展机制的构件抗力衰减分析,机械强度,1994,15(3)：46-51.
[43]周明砚,考虑疲劳和腐蚀损伤及维修因素的船体梁时变可靠性分析,武汉理工大学硕士论文,2001
[44]寇雄,李亚,张晖疲劳和腐蚀损伤下船体的瞬时与时变可靠性分析,中国海洋平台,2006：11-16
[45]施兴华,徐定海,张婧,王善.基于随机过程理论的舰船结构时变可靠性分析,哈尔滨工程大学学报,2008,29(2)：135-150
[46]赵尚传,赵国藩,贡金鑫.抗力随时间变化非承载力因素对结构可靠性影响,大连理工大学学报,2002,42(5)：574-579
[47]Mori Y, Elling wood R. Time Dependent System Reliability Analysis Adaptive Importance Sampling,St ructural Safety,1993,12(1)
[48]Hall P. L.,Strutt J. E. Probabilistic Physics-of-failure Models for Component Reliabilities Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Weibull Analysis:a Parametric Study, Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2003,80:233～242
[49]唐利民,肖熙结构强度随时间变化的平台结构可靠性分析,上海交通大学学报,1996,30(10)：15-27
[50]王剑,刘西拉.基于多层Bayes先验抗力模型的结构信息更新,上海交通大学学报,2004,38(6)：937-940
[51]张俊芝,苏小卒.基于实测样本值和Bayesian方法的服役结构抗力随机时变模型,工业建筑,2005,35(3)：30-32
[52]李正农,袁文阳.基于灰色系统理论的结构时变可靠度分析.武汉水利电力大学学报,1996,29(6)：163-16
[53]吕颖钊,贺拴海.在役桥梁承载力模糊可靠性的马尔科夫预测,长安大学学报(自然科学版)2005,25(4)：39-43
[54]张爱林,赵国藩,王光远现役结构模糊动态可靠度评估实用方法,应用基础与工程科学学报,1998,6(1)：83-90
[55]张苑竹,金伟良.神经网络在混凝土结构可靠度评估中的应用.科技通报,2002,18(6)：495-200
[56]牛荻涛.服役结构的抗力衰减模型与可靠性研究(二十一世纪土木工程学科的发展趋势)北京：科学出版社,1997.74-82
[57]左勇志,刘西拉.结构动态可靠性的全随机过程模型,清华大学学报,2004,44(3)：395-405
[58]贡金鑫,赵国藩.考虑抗力随时间变化的结构可靠度分析.建筑结构学报,1998,19(5)：43-51
[59]Schwerdt R W, Ho F P, Wakins R R.,Meteorological criteria for standard Project Hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States.1979,NOAA Tech Rept NWS23.
[60]Georgiou P N, Davenport A G, Vickery P J. Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones. J Wind Eng Ind Aer,1983,13:139～152
[61]Vickery, P. J. and Twisdale,L. A. Wind-field and filling models for hurricane wind speed predictions. J. Struct.Engrg.,ASCE.1995, Vol.121,No.11,pp1700-1709
[62]William M Gray.Twentieth Century Challenges and Milestones. Hurricane!Coping with Disaster, Am Geophys Union,2003.10.1029/055SP02:3-37.
[63]Liu Defu,Pang Liang, Xie Botao.Typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria—A double layer nested multi-objective probability model and its application. Science in China Series E.2008,38(5):698-707.
[64]杨晓华,沈珍瑶.智能算法及其在资源环境系统建模中的应用.北京：北京师范大学出版社,2005,136-138
[65]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用(第三版).北京：科学出版社,2004.1,129
[66]H Tong. Threshold Models in Non-linear Time Series Analysis, Lecture Notes in Statistics.Springer-Verlag,1983
[67]Granger C W J and Andersen, A P. An Introduction to Bilinear Time SeriesModels. Gottingen:Vandenhoeck and Ruprecht,1978
[68]Granger C W J and Morris,O. Time series Modeling and Interpretation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A,1976,139:246-257
[69]Hamilton J D. A new Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica,1989,45:39-70
[70]Kuan C M and White H. Artificial Neural Networks:An Econometric Perspective (with Discussion).Econometric Reviews,1994,13:140-143
[71]Brock W A. Distinguishing Random and Determinstic Systems:Abridged Version. Statistical Association,1986,65:509-526
[72]Granger C W J and Newbold P. Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics,1974,2.111-120
[73]特伦斯C.米尔斯.金融时间序列的经济计量学模型.俞卓著译.北京：经济科学出版社,2002
[74]Phillips P C B. Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics,1986,33:311-340
[75]Sargan J D and Bhargava A S.Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk. Econornetrica,1983,51:153-174
[1]谢彬,于皓.API RP 2A设计参数的合理选取,中国海上油气(工程),2000,12(1)：10-14
[2]张俊香,李平日,黄光庆新奥尔良飓风灾难与华南沿海台风暴潮,热带地理,2006,26(3),218-222
[3]王晓东,王冠军,姜付仁。卡特里娜飓风的影响及启示,水利发展研究,2005,12：8-13
[4]Puskar, F. J.,Aggarwal, R. K., Cornell, C.A.,Moses, F. and Petrauskas, C.,A Comparison of Analytical Predicted Platform Damage During Hurricane Andrew, Offshore Technology Conference, OTC No.7473,May 1994.
[5]ABS Consulting (ABSC), Hurricane Lili's impact on Fixed Platforms, Final Report to MMS, June 2004.
[6]Energo Engineering, Assessment of Fixed Offshore Platform Performance in Hurrican Andrew, Lili and Ivan, report submitted to MMS, January 2006.
[7]Energo Engineering, Assessment of Fixed Offshore Platform Performance in Hurricane Katrina and Rita, report submitted to MMS, May 2007.
[8]MMS,2008,MMS Completes Assessment of Destroyed and Damaged Facilities from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, Posted on MMS Website, December.
[9]HSE, The Costs of Accidents at Work, HSG 96, Health and Safety Executive,HSE Books, Sudbury, UK,1997.
[10]Stiff, J.J.,MODU Risk-MODU Mooring Comparative Risk Assessment, Offshore Technology Conference, OTC No.20143,May 2009.
[11]Stahl,B.,S.Aune, J. Gebara and C.A.Cornell,Acceptance Criteria for Offshore Platforms, Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Vol.122, August 2000, pp.153-156.
[12]THIC-Iwan, W.D., Thiel, C.C, Housner, G.W.,Cornell, C.A., Seismic Safety Requalification of Offshore Platforms, Prepared for API, May 1992.
[13]Relliabiliy vs.Consequence of failure for API RP 2A Fixed platforms using Api bulletin 2INT-MET. Final report,2009, Energo Engineering, Houston.
[14]ISO 19901-2, Seismic Design Procedures and Criteria, International Organization for Standardization,2004.
[15]ISO 19902, Fixed Steel Offshore Structures, International Organization for Standardization, 2008.
[16]Vinnem J E. Quantified risk assessment for offshore petroleum installations. Lecture notes for "81064 Risk analysis of marine structure" in NTNU.1996.
[17]Vinnem J E.Evaluation of methodology for QRA in offshore operation. Reliability engineering and system safety.1998,61:39-52.
[18]Liu D F, Li F L, Risk Assessment of Breakwater Wave Overtopping. Proc.APAC2005,Jeju, Korea, APAC,2005:1579-1589
[1]欧进萍,段忠东,肖仪清.海洋平台结构安全评定,科学出版社2003年
[2]方华灿.海洋环境载荷的不确定性分析,石油机械,1994,22(9)：25-30
[3]Ferreira J.,Guedes Soares C.(1998). "An application of the Peaks OverThreshold method to predict extremes of significant wave height," Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering,120:165--176
[4]Martins E, Stedinger J R. Generalized maximum likelihood Pareto-Poisson estimation for partial duration series[J].Water Resources Research,2001,37(10):2551-2557
[5]Stewart D. A.,Essenwanger O.M.Frequency distribution of wind speed near the surface[J]. Appl.Meteor,1978,17:1633-1642.
[6]C.Cunnane,(1973)."A particular comparison of annual maxima and partial duration series methods of flood frequency prediction," Journal of Hydrology 18, (3/4):257～271.
[7]仇学艳,王超,秦崇仁.阈值法在河海工程设计中的应用,水利学报,2001,8：32-37
[8]Liu, T.F. and Ma, F.S.Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities, J.the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean division,1980.106(4):469～479.
[9]孟庆珍,唐谟智.成都地面气温与风速年极大值的渐近分布及参数估计.成都气象学院学报,1997,4：284-291
[10]孟庆珍,杜健.成都地面风速年极值的4种分布函数拟合结果的比较.成都信息工程学院学报,2001,5：97-104
[11]Xie Botao, et al.Statistical Prediction of Long Term Characteristics for Typhoon Induced Rainstorm and Inundation in China. Proc.of the 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. And Arctic Eng, Estoril, Portugal, OMAE2008.Paper No.57017
[12]wangchao, Liu De-fu, Undefined analysis of selecting design wave factors [J],ACTA, CEANOLOGICA SINICA 1991,13(4):874-881
[13]Goda Y.On the methodology of selecting design wave heinht.21rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering.ASCE,1988,899-913
[14]Donald T. Resio, et al.White Paper on Estimation Hurricane Inundation Probabilities, U.S.Army Corps of Engineering Report,2007,:1-10.
[15]Knutson T R,Tuleya R E,Kurihara Y. Simulate increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate. Science,1998.279(2):1018-1020
[16]Chen Lianshou, Luo Huibang,Duan Yihong,et al.An overview of tropical cyclone and tropical meteorology research progress. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2004.21 (3):505-514
[17]李爱平,沈红梅,石少华.西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化特征分析.海洋预报,2006.23(3)：64-71
[18]李宪之.论热带气旋[M].北京：气象出版社.1983；14-16
[19]史道济.实用极值统计方法,天津科学技术出版社.天津2006
[20]RL Smith.Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events.J.Hydrol,1986,86:27-43.
[21]CG Soares, MG Scotto.Application of the r largest-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave height.Coast. Eng,2004,51:387-394.
[22]Langley RM, AH El-Shaarawi.On The Calculation of Extreme Wave Heights:A Review.Ocean Engineering,1986,13(1):93-118
[1]Y. K. Wen and H. Banon,Development of Environmental Combination Design Criteria for Fixed Platform in the Gulf of Mexico. OTC 6540, Proceedings of the Offshore Technology Conference, Houston,1991:365-375
[2]Frieze, P.A.,Morandi, A.C.,Birkinshaw, M.,Smith, D.,Dixon, A.T.,Fixed and Jack-up Platforms:Basis for Reliability Assessment. Marine Structures, May,1997,10(4):263-284
[3]M. Olagnon, R. Nerzic and M.Prevosto, Extreme Water Level from Joint Distributions of Tide, Surge and Crests:a Case Study, Proceedings of the Ninth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Brest, France,,1999,May 30-June 4
[4]Niedzwecki, J.M.,van de Lindt, J.W.,Gage, J.H.,Teigen, P.S.,Design Estimates of Surface Wave Interaction with Compliant Deepwater Platforms,Ocean Engineering, Volume 27, Issue 8, August 2000:867-888
[5]Liu T F, Ma F S.,Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities. J Waterway Port Coast Ocean,1980, Div, ASCE,106, No.WW4,469-479.
[6]R M Langley, A H El-Shaarawi.On the calculation of extreme wave heights:A review. Ocean Eng.,1986,13(1):93-118.
[7]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛,伍远康.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究—双层嵌套多目标联合概率模式及其应用.中国科学E辑.2008,38(5)：698～707
[8]Liu D. F, Wen S.Q, Wang L. P. Poison-Gumbel Mixed Compound Distribution and its application. Chinese Science Bulletin,2002, Vol.47, No.22,1901-1906.
[9]Stuart G Coles and Jonathan A Tawn..Statiscs of coastal flood prevention. Phil Trans. R, Soc.A, 1990,332:457-476
[10]Jonathan A Tawn.. Modeling multivariate extreme value distributions. Biometrika, 1990,77(2):245-253.
[11]Shi daoji, Zhou Shengsheng. Moment Estimation for Multivariate Extreme Value Distribution in a Nested Logistic Model.Ann Inst Statist Math,1999,51(2):253-264.
[12]金伟良,陈海江,庄一舟.极端波浪对海洋导管架平台的作用及其模型试验研究海洋工程 1999，17(4)：33-38
[13]Wen Y.K. Environmental event combination criteria Phase I,risk analysis.API PARC-87-20,Research report,1988
[14]Bea R G Effects of water wave kinematics uncertainty on design criteria for offshore structures in water wave kinematics 1990:103-159
[15]Olufsen A,Bea R G. Uncertainties in extreme wave loading on fixed offshore platforms Proceedings of Ninth International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. OMAE'90,ASME.1990:15-31
[16]American Petroleum Institute (API).2002.Recommended Practice for Planning, Designing and Constructing Fixed Offshore Platforms". API RP 2A, Twenty-First Edition, Washington, D.C.
[17]DET NORSKE VERITAS, Rules For The Design Construction and Inspection of Offshore Structures,1997.
[18]M. Olagnon, R. Nerzic and M.Prevosto, Extreme Water Level from Joint Distributions of Tide, Surge and Crests:a Case Study, Proceedings of the Ninth(1999) International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Brest, France, May 30-June 4,1999
[19]Energo.2007.Assessment of fixed offshore platform performance in hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Report to MMS by Energo Engineering, Inc.,Energo Engineering Project No.:E06117.
[20]Energo.2006. Assessment of Fixed Offshore Platform performance in Hurricanes Andrew, Lili and Ivan, Report to MMS by Energo Engineering, Inc., TAR No.549.
[21]Forristall,2007, Metocean Conditions at Platforms in the Path of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Forristall Ocean Engineering, Inc., March 2007.
[22]API BULL2INT-DG.2007.Interim Guidance for Design of Offshore Structures for Hurricane Conditions, API BULL2INT-DG, First Edition, Washington, D.C.
[23]温书勤,二维复合极值分布及其在近海工程中的应用,中国海洋大学硕士论文,2002
[24]宋艳,多维联合概率的随机模拟技术及其工程应用中国海洋大学博士论文,2004
[25]Daniel T. Cox, and Christopher P. Scott,Exceedance Probability for Wave Overtopping on a Fixed Deck,Ocean Engineering,2001,Vol.28, Issue 6,pp707-721
[26]俞聿修编著,随机波浪及其工程应用,大连理工大学出版社,2000
[27]Zhou Liu and Hans F. Burcharth, "Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height" Coastal Engineering,1998,1027-1038
[28]王莉萍.多维复合极值分布理论及其工程应用.中国海洋大学,博士学位论文.2005
[1]张俊芝服役工程结构可靠性理论及其应用中国水利水电出版社,2007.
[2]Ang A H-S.Extended reliability basic of structural design under uncertainties.Annals of Reliability and Maintainability,1970(9)
[3]刘德辅.海洋和海岸工程可靠度分析的几个问题.青岛海洋大学学报,1995,1-8
[4]U.Bourgund,.and C.G.Bucher, Importance Sampling Procedure Using Design Point, Research Report of Univ. of Innsbruck, Nov.1986
[5]Srinivasan, Rajan, Importance Sampling:Applications in Communications and Detection, Berlin; New York:Springer,2002
[6]Bourgund,U.,Ouypornprasert,W.,Prenninger,P.H.W., Advanced Simulation Methods for the Estimation of Systems Reliability, Internal Working Report 19, Inst. of Eng. Mech., Univ. of Innsbruck, October 1986
[7]Srinivasan, Rajan, Importance Sampling:Applications in Communications and Detection, Berlin; New York:Springer,2002
[8]Harbitz A.Efficient and Accurate Probability of Failure Calculation by Use of the Importance Sampling Technique, Proc 4th. International Conference on Application of Statistics and Probability in Soil and Structural Engineering, Bologna, Italy:Pragora Editric,1983:825-836
[9]傅旭东.相关变量下失效概率的计算机模拟,西南交通大学学报,1997,32：319-323
[10]吕震宙.多设计准则下多变量多模式结构可靠性理论及应用,西北工业大学博士论文,1993.10
[11]Melchers R. E, Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, New York:Ellis Horwood Limited, 1987
[12]李亚东.重要抽样模拟及其在结构可靠度计算中的应用,西南交通大学学报,1992 4：105-111
[13]裴永刚,谭文辉.工程结构时变可靠度理论的发展与应用.工业建筑,2005,35：135-138
[14]李晓东.固定式海洋平台基于GUA&GSA技术的定量风险评估方法的研究.中国海洋大学硕士学位论文.2005
[15]宋艳.多维联合概率的随机模拟技术及其工程应用,中国海洋大学博士学位论文,2004
[1]海上固定平台入级与建造规范[S]1992,中国船级社
[2]韩小风.导管架平台的极限承载力分析,中国海洋大学硕士论文,2007
[3]Freeman S.A.,Nicoletti J.P.,Tyrrell J. V. Evaluation of Existing Buildings for Seismic Risk, A Case Study of Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, Bremerton, Washington [J].Proceedings of t he 1st U.S.National Conference on Earthquake Engineering,1975:9-201
[4]API RP 2A2LRFD. Recommended Practice for Planning,Designing and Const ructing Fixed Off shore Platforms2Load and Resistance Factor Design.1993.
[5]尚晓江,等.ANSYS结构有限元高级分析方法与范例应用中国水利水电出版社2005
[6]徐兴平,黄东升,李继志.渤海八号平台腐蚀评估,中国海洋平台,2001,16-3,39-42
[7]欧进萍,段忠东,肖仪清.海洋平台结构安全评定—理论、方法与应用[M].北京：科学出版社.2003
[8]蔺石柱,李燕飞,杨丽梅在役结构可靠度分析中的荷载研究包头钢铁学院学报2004,23(4)：376-379
[9]张俊芝.服役工程结构可靠性理论及其应用中国水利水电出版社,2007.
[10]周道成,段忠东,欧进萍海洋环境要素极值更新概率模型,土木工程学报,2008,41(5)：100-105
[11]BoxG.E. P, Tiao G. C, Bayes Inference in Statistical Analysis, Addison--Wesley. Reading,1973.
[12]Singh R.S. R Empirical Bayes estimation with convergence rates in continuous Lebesgue-exponential families.Ann. Statist.,1976,4:431-39
[13]王起,王超,王东超.用贝叶斯方法推算设计波高.海洋预报,1995,12(4)：59-66
[14]金伟良.工程荷载组合理论与应用2006机械工业出版社
[15]黄修明,尹建德,刘建军,彭树杰.渤海石油平台附着生物生态的研究.海洋科学集刊.1994,35：131-141
[16]刘孔忠,官耀华,仲华.平湖油气田平台导管架防海生物装置的应用.中国海上油气(工程)2003,15(1),50-52
[17]中仲翰,许滨,赵强,吕聪钢.结构海洋平台整体安全性评估方法研究中国海洋平台.1994,9(1)：129-135
[18]R.G. Bea et.al,Quallty Assuranee in Building and operation of Marine Structures.Port for ISSC (Vol.2),St. John's,Canada,September,1994,59-114.
[19]R. G. Bea et. al.Comparative Risk Assessment of Alternative TLP System:Structure and Foundation Aspect,Journal of OMAE.Vol.116,1994:86-96.
[20]Jin Weiliang. Reliability2based design for jacket platform under extreme loads [J].China Ocean Engineering,1996,10 (2):145 160.
[21]姜云鹏.港口及海岸工程设计波浪及相应极端荷载分析理论及方法研究.中国海洋大学硕士学位论文.2007
[1]Schwerdt R W, Ho F P, Wakins R R. Meteorological criteria for standard Project Hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States.1979, NOAA Tech. Rept NWS23
[2]Georgiou P N, Davenport A G,Vickery P J. Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones. J Wind Eng Ind Aer,1983,13:139-152
[3]Vickery, P. J. and Twisdale, L. A.Wind-field and filling models for hurricane wind speed predictions. J. Struct. Engrg.,ASCE.1995,121(11):1700-1709
[4]William M Gray. Twentieth Century Challenges and Milestones. Hurricane!Coping with Disaster, Am Geophys Union,2003.10:3-37
[5]刘德辅,马逢时.Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities, Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean division,ASCE,1980,106, No.WW4,469-479
[6]刘德辅,Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics, Proc.Offshore Technology Conference OTC 4325,Houston,1982,USA,305-313.
[7]GAO, History of the Lake Pontchartrain and Vincinity Hurricane Protection Project,"2005,United States Government Accountability Office.
[8]API BULL 2INT-MET. Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, API BULL2INT-MET, First Edition 2007,Washington, D.C.
[9]Liu Defu, Shi Hongda, PangLiang. Joint probability Analysis of Hurricane Katrina 2005,Proc. International Offshore and Polar Eng. Conf. San Francisco, USA, ISOPE2006-jsc-369
[10]Casson.E and Coles S.,2000,Simulation and extremal analysis of hurricane events, Appl. Statist.49(2):227-245
[11]Coles S.,and Simiv E.,2003,Estimating Uncertainty in the Extreme Value Analysis of Data Generated by a Hurricane Simulation Model, J. of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, 129(11):1288-1294
[12]李荣峰,冀雅珍.水文时间序列分析计算方法的研究进展与展望.山西水利科技,2005,4：4-6.
[13]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.GB/T 19201-2005.中国国家标准化管理委员会.北京：中国标准出版社,2005-01-01
[14]董胜,孔令双.海洋工程环境概论,青岛：中国海洋大学出版社,2005
[15]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛,伍远康.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究—双层嵌套多目标联合概率模式及其应用.中国科学E辑.38(5)：698～707
[16]姜昊.灰色马尔可夫预测模型在台风诱发灾害研究中的应用.中国海洋大学硕士学位论文.2009
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |