中国区域物流发展水平差异及其形成机理研究
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摘要
区域物流是区域经济的重要组成部分,在优化区域资源配置、促进区域产业结构升级和促进区域经济可持续发展等方面作用突出,被喻为区域经济增长的“加速器”。在当前中国地区经济差异不断扩大的背景下,本文着眼于区域经济重要组成部分的区域物流进行研究。重点对我国各地区区域物流发展水平、区域物流促进区域经济增长内在机理、区域物流发展水平差异现状和影响因素、区域物流发展水平差异的收敛性、动态演进和趋势进行了研究：
(1)构建了区域物流发展综合水平评价指标体系,采用因子分析法,测算了中国1997-2007年各地区区域物流发展综合水平并分析了其特征,得出了以下结论：我国各地区区域物流发展综合水平差异较大；从空间分布来看,东部地区物流发展水平明显高于中西部地区,呈现从东部往西部逐渐降低的梯度分布格局；从纵向动态变化来看,区域物流发展水平存在历史依赖性。
(2)对区域物流与区域经济之间的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验。首先从理论上分析了区域物流促进区域经济增长的内在机理,区域物流主要通过促进产业分工、制造业集聚和产业结构优化升级来促进经济增长,并进行了实证检验。结果表明,物流发展水平的提高能够显著的促进分工,物流发展可通过分工促进经济增长；物流发展与制造业空间集聚之间存在“倒U型”非线性关系；物流业发展对第二、三产业比重提升有显著正向影响,物流业发展有利于产业结构的优化升级。最后,对区域物流与区域经济耦合协调度的研究表明,区域物流与区域经济之间存在显著相关关系,优质协调的省份和严重失调的省份都较少,轻度失调省份较多,呈现明显的“中间大、两头小”的“橄榄型”,在耦合协调度的空间分布上,基本符合东、中、西部空间分异规律,东部地区耦合协调度明显优于中西部地区。
(3)采用平均差、标准差、极差、变异系数和泰尔指数等绝对指标和相对指标,对1980—2009年各地区区域物流发展差异从省际、东中西部三大地区、八大经济区三个角度进行了比较分析。研究结论表明：我国区域物流发展差异呈现整体下降趋势,分阶段来看,1980—1989年全国总体差异呈现下降趋势,1990年至2009年,呈现“上升——平稳——下降”走势,与中国经济地区差异走势基本一致。从东中西部三大地区和八大经济区来看,区内、区间差异都成缩小趋势,但区间差异大于区内差异,区间差异是地区差异的主要构成部分。
(4)选择物流网络密度、物流政策、人力资本、城市化率、市场开放度、对外开放度、政府干预度、地理位置和邻居效应共9个指标对于区域物流发展的影响因素进行分析,给出了物流发展差异的原因。结论表明：政府干预度、城市化率、邻居效应、地理位置四个解释变量在1%的显著性水平上通过检验,人力资本存量、物流网络密度、物流政策三个变量在10%的显著性水平上通过检验。这7个变量对区域物流发展有重要影响。进一步的分解结果表明,对区域物流发展差距的贡献从大到小依次为：邻居效应变量、城市化率、物流网络密度、地理位置变量、区域物流政策、政府干预度、人力资本存量和市场开放度。
(5)对我国区域物流发展的β收敛性检验表明,我国区域物流发展整体差异和三大地区之间物流发展差异在1996年以前呈现发散态势,而1996年以后差异扩大的速度在放缓,开始呈现收敛状。Kenel密度估计结果和马尔可夫链研究结果表明,我国区域物流发展水平的密度分布始终是非均衡的,呈现为高低两个俱乐部状态。从马尔可夫链转移概率矩阵看,各地区区域物流发展水平将仍然保持较大差异,短时期内难以实现均衡发展。
Regional logistics is an important part of regional economy, and it plays a prominent role in the optimization of regional resource, upgrading regional industrial structure and promoting the sustainable development of regional economy. It is also called the "accelerator" of regional economic growth. In China, as the expanding of regional economic differences, this article focuses on regional logistics which is an important part of for regional economy for research. The main contents include the relative level of China's regional logistics development, the inner mechanism of regional logistics promoting regional economic growth, the status of regional logistics development difference and influence factors, the convergence, dynamic evolution and trend of regional logistics development level differences.
(1) The construction of evaluation index system about regional logistics development, and by the principal component analysis method, this paper calculates regional logistics comprehensive development level and analyzes the characteristics from1997to2007in China. It comes to the following conclusions:the regional logistics comprehensive development level in China has a big differences; From the space distribution, the logistics development level in the east is obviously higher than that in the midwest, and it shows the lower gradient distribution pattern from east to west; from the vertical dynamic change, the regional logistics development level exists historical dependence.
(2) Giving the theoretical analysis and empirical test on the relationship of regional logistics and regional economy. First, from theoretically it analyzes the inner mechanism of regional logistics promoting regional economic growth, namely the regional logistics promotes the economic growth mainly through promoting industrial division, manufacturing cluster and upgrading the industrial structure. The results show that the improvement of logistics development level can significantly boost the division of labor, and promote economic growth; it has a nonlinear relationship of "reverse U" between logistics development and manufacturing spatial agglomeration; the logistics industry has a significant positive impact on the ascension of the second and third industry proportion, and the logistics development can help the optimization of industrial structure.Finally, by the research of coupling coordination on regional logistics and regional economic, it shows that regional logistics and regional economic have a relevant relation. The provinces of high coordination and serious imbalance are less, the provinces of mild imbalance are more, and it shows the shape of olive which has "a big body, two small head". In the spatial distribution of coupling coordination, it basicly conforms to the space differentiation rules of east, center and west, and the coupling coordination degree of east is better than the that of midwest.
(3) By the absolute index and relative index of mean difference, standard deviation, poor, variation coefficient and theil index, this paper analyses the regional logistics disparity with the three points of provincial, three regions of east, center and west, and eight major economic zones from1980to2009. The results indicates that:the differences of regional logistics development shows a downward trend; see from the stage, the difference of national from1980to1989has declined, from1990to2009, it shows the trend of "rise-steady-down", comparing with the China's economic movements, the trend of regional differences are basically the same; see from the three regions and eight major economic zones, the differences of inner and interval shows a narrow trend, but the difference of interval is bigger than that of interval, and the interval difference is the main component of regional differences.
(4) Choosing the9indexes of logistics network density, logistics policy, human capital, urbanization rate, market open degree, opening-up to the outside, government intervention degrees, geographic location and neighbor effect, this paper analyzes the influencing factors to the regional logistics development. The conclusion shows that:the four explanatory variables of government intervention degrees, urbanization rate, neighbor effect, geography position have passed the inspection by1%level, the three variables of human capital stock, logistics network density, logistics policy have passed the inspection by10%level. The seven variables have an important influence to regional logistics development. The further decomposition results show that the contribution to the regional logistics development gap from large to small is as follows:neighbor effect, urbanization rate, logistics network density, location variables, regional logistics policy, government intervention degrees, human capital stock and market openness.
(5) Regional Logistics Development of the β-convergence test indicates that the differences of regional logistics development and the development of logistics differences among three zones show divergent situation before1996, while they show the convergence after1996. The results of Kernel denstity and Markov chain represent the density distribution of regional logistics development level in China is always unbalanced which shows high and low two clubs state. From the probability matrix of markov chain, the regional logistics development level will still keep a big difference, and it is difficult to achieve balanced development in the short period.
(1)构建了区域物流发展综合水平评价指标体系,采用因子分析法,测算了中国1997-2007年各地区区域物流发展综合水平并分析了其特征,得出了以下结论：我国各地区区域物流发展综合水平差异较大；从空间分布来看,东部地区物流发展水平明显高于中西部地区,呈现从东部往西部逐渐降低的梯度分布格局；从纵向动态变化来看,区域物流发展水平存在历史依赖性。
(2)对区域物流与区域经济之间的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验。首先从理论上分析了区域物流促进区域经济增长的内在机理,区域物流主要通过促进产业分工、制造业集聚和产业结构优化升级来促进经济增长,并进行了实证检验。结果表明,物流发展水平的提高能够显著的促进分工,物流发展可通过分工促进经济增长；物流发展与制造业空间集聚之间存在“倒U型”非线性关系；物流业发展对第二、三产业比重提升有显著正向影响,物流业发展有利于产业结构的优化升级。最后,对区域物流与区域经济耦合协调度的研究表明,区域物流与区域经济之间存在显著相关关系,优质协调的省份和严重失调的省份都较少,轻度失调省份较多,呈现明显的“中间大、两头小”的“橄榄型”,在耦合协调度的空间分布上,基本符合东、中、西部空间分异规律,东部地区耦合协调度明显优于中西部地区。
(3)采用平均差、标准差、极差、变异系数和泰尔指数等绝对指标和相对指标,对1980—2009年各地区区域物流发展差异从省际、东中西部三大地区、八大经济区三个角度进行了比较分析。研究结论表明：我国区域物流发展差异呈现整体下降趋势,分阶段来看,1980—1989年全国总体差异呈现下降趋势,1990年至2009年,呈现“上升——平稳——下降”走势,与中国经济地区差异走势基本一致。从东中西部三大地区和八大经济区来看,区内、区间差异都成缩小趋势,但区间差异大于区内差异,区间差异是地区差异的主要构成部分。
(4)选择物流网络密度、物流政策、人力资本、城市化率、市场开放度、对外开放度、政府干预度、地理位置和邻居效应共9个指标对于区域物流发展的影响因素进行分析,给出了物流发展差异的原因。结论表明：政府干预度、城市化率、邻居效应、地理位置四个解释变量在1%的显著性水平上通过检验,人力资本存量、物流网络密度、物流政策三个变量在10%的显著性水平上通过检验。这7个变量对区域物流发展有重要影响。进一步的分解结果表明,对区域物流发展差距的贡献从大到小依次为：邻居效应变量、城市化率、物流网络密度、地理位置变量、区域物流政策、政府干预度、人力资本存量和市场开放度。
(5)对我国区域物流发展的β收敛性检验表明,我国区域物流发展整体差异和三大地区之间物流发展差异在1996年以前呈现发散态势,而1996年以后差异扩大的速度在放缓,开始呈现收敛状。Kenel密度估计结果和马尔可夫链研究结果表明,我国区域物流发展水平的密度分布始终是非均衡的,呈现为高低两个俱乐部状态。从马尔可夫链转移概率矩阵看,各地区区域物流发展水平将仍然保持较大差异,短时期内难以实现均衡发展。
Regional logistics is an important part of regional economy, and it plays a prominent role in the optimization of regional resource, upgrading regional industrial structure and promoting the sustainable development of regional economy. It is also called the "accelerator" of regional economic growth. In China, as the expanding of regional economic differences, this article focuses on regional logistics which is an important part of for regional economy for research. The main contents include the relative level of China's regional logistics development, the inner mechanism of regional logistics promoting regional economic growth, the status of regional logistics development difference and influence factors, the convergence, dynamic evolution and trend of regional logistics development level differences.
(1) The construction of evaluation index system about regional logistics development, and by the principal component analysis method, this paper calculates regional logistics comprehensive development level and analyzes the characteristics from1997to2007in China. It comes to the following conclusions:the regional logistics comprehensive development level in China has a big differences; From the space distribution, the logistics development level in the east is obviously higher than that in the midwest, and it shows the lower gradient distribution pattern from east to west; from the vertical dynamic change, the regional logistics development level exists historical dependence.
(2) Giving the theoretical analysis and empirical test on the relationship of regional logistics and regional economy. First, from theoretically it analyzes the inner mechanism of regional logistics promoting regional economic growth, namely the regional logistics promotes the economic growth mainly through promoting industrial division, manufacturing cluster and upgrading the industrial structure. The results show that the improvement of logistics development level can significantly boost the division of labor, and promote economic growth; it has a nonlinear relationship of "reverse U" between logistics development and manufacturing spatial agglomeration; the logistics industry has a significant positive impact on the ascension of the second and third industry proportion, and the logistics development can help the optimization of industrial structure.Finally, by the research of coupling coordination on regional logistics and regional economic, it shows that regional logistics and regional economic have a relevant relation. The provinces of high coordination and serious imbalance are less, the provinces of mild imbalance are more, and it shows the shape of olive which has "a big body, two small head". In the spatial distribution of coupling coordination, it basicly conforms to the space differentiation rules of east, center and west, and the coupling coordination degree of east is better than the that of midwest.
(3) By the absolute index and relative index of mean difference, standard deviation, poor, variation coefficient and theil index, this paper analyses the regional logistics disparity with the three points of provincial, three regions of east, center and west, and eight major economic zones from1980to2009. The results indicates that:the differences of regional logistics development shows a downward trend; see from the stage, the difference of national from1980to1989has declined, from1990to2009, it shows the trend of "rise-steady-down", comparing with the China's economic movements, the trend of regional differences are basically the same; see from the three regions and eight major economic zones, the differences of inner and interval shows a narrow trend, but the difference of interval is bigger than that of interval, and the interval difference is the main component of regional differences.
(4) Choosing the9indexes of logistics network density, logistics policy, human capital, urbanization rate, market open degree, opening-up to the outside, government intervention degrees, geographic location and neighbor effect, this paper analyzes the influencing factors to the regional logistics development. The conclusion shows that:the four explanatory variables of government intervention degrees, urbanization rate, neighbor effect, geography position have passed the inspection by1%level, the three variables of human capital stock, logistics network density, logistics policy have passed the inspection by10%level. The seven variables have an important influence to regional logistics development. The further decomposition results show that the contribution to the regional logistics development gap from large to small is as follows:neighbor effect, urbanization rate, logistics network density, location variables, regional logistics policy, government intervention degrees, human capital stock and market openness.
(5) Regional Logistics Development of the β-convergence test indicates that the differences of regional logistics development and the development of logistics differences among three zones show divergent situation before1996, while they show the convergence after1996. The results of Kernel denstity and Markov chain represent the density distribution of regional logistics development level in China is always unbalanced which shows high and low two clubs state. From the probability matrix of markov chain, the regional logistics development level will still keep a big difference, and it is difficult to achieve balanced development in the short period.
引文
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