电动汽车技术创新模式研究
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摘要
近年来,随着国民经济的持续增长,汽车产业已成为中国的支柱产业。由于电动汽车具有资源消耗低、环境污染少等特点,逐渐成为各国争相发展的新能源汽车之一。相对于传统成熟技术的低风险和低不确定性,电动汽车作为新兴技术,其技术研发活动和市场投资尚处于探索起步阶段,具有高风险和高不确定性。目前,对于我国电动汽车企业,技术创新模式的选择及其实现已成为影响我国电动汽车企业未来发展的主要因素。然而,现有研究较少关心企业如何定量的选择创新模式和在各模式下如何进行投资决策。为弥补以往研究的不足,论文运用实物期权方法及技术创新理论,研究了我国电动汽车企业技术创新模式的选择及其实现等相关问题,揭示企业如何根据自身创新能力参数选择创新模式、进行投资决策。
论文重点开展了以下三方面的工作：(1)基于三种创新模式的知识能力特征,构建了纳什谈判解的技术创新模式选择博弈模型。企业可以根据创新难度,及各种选择下获得的收益比较,来选择原始创新、合作创新及模仿创新三种策略。(2)利用实物期权方法构建了企业在各种创新模式下的投资决策模型。企业可以充分利用不确定性带来的期权价值,在研发和市场化等阶段根据不确定信息的获得而灵活选择企业最优的投资时机,从而明确企业的投资决策条件。(3)选取电动汽车业具有代表性的比亚迪公司为研究对象,通过数值计算的方法验证前文中建立的三种投资决策模型在实践中的准确性,并提出现阶段我国电动汽车技术实现的保障措施。
通过这些探索,论文在研究企业技术创新模式选择及其实现的投资决策过程中取得了以下主要结论：
(1)论文通过假设企业自身创新能力参数,引入行为博弈理论和纳什谈判解,得到企业在各模式下的创新收益,研究结果表明：企业进行模仿创新和合作创新时收益均大于原始创新时的收益,因此企业在能进行合作创新或模仿创新时,不会选择原始创新模式。当合作创新收益大于模仿创新时,为支付较少技术交易费用,企业会选择合作创新。而当项目研发费用与项目价值比值较小时,企业如果合作创新,其分配利润的话语权较小,此时企业会选择模仿创新；但企业进行模仿和合作创新时,随技术的积累,自身原始创新能力参数增加,当原始创新收益将大于合作创新,企业会进行原始创新。此外,企业在选择合作创新伙伴时,会选择合作创新能力参数较高的企业进行合作创新,在把技术转让给原始创新能力较低的企业后,转让企业可通过协商获得更多的专利转让费。
(2)通过实物期权方法构建企业原始创新、模仿创新及合作创新模式的投资决策模型,得到企业在创新模式下各阶段的投资临界值。结果表明企业在原始创新市场化阶段,其投资的最优时机是项目价值首次达到或超过临界价值时；在研发阶段,企业的最优研发时机是项目期权价值达到或首次超过研发成本时。企业在合作创新市场化阶段、研发阶段和引进阶段,其最优投资时机是产品价格大于对应的各阶段产品临界价格时,企业只要引进阶段产品价格大于临界价格时,企业就可以进行后续的投资阶段的工作。企业在模仿创新阶段的最优时刻是产品的价格首次达到或超过模仿创新最优的投资临界值时,此时企业的投资是最优的,而企业模仿创新模式下进入市场最优时机是当项目的价格达到或超过临界值。
(3)通过对比亚迪股份有限公司技术创新项目投资决策进行实证研究,结果表明企业三种模式下的投资决策最优时机与理论模型结果一致。企业原始创新市场化阶段波动率和无风险利率的增加,会导致项目临界值的增加。在合作创新引进阶段,单位产品价格的临界值会随波动率的增加而增加；预期价格增长率的增大,期权价值会提高,但单位产品价格临界值会降低；无风险利率的上升会导致期权价值的下降,而单位产品价格临界值会升高。模仿创新研发阶段,当产品成本系数不变时,跳跃程度变大时,研发成功时间将提前,项目价格下降。当产品成本系数增大时,项目价格临界值也将增大。提高质量,表示当成功率变大时,研发成功的时间将提前,项目价格临界值会下降。
In recent years, with the sustained growth of national economy, the automobile industry has become a pillar industry in China. Due to its low resource consumption and little environmental pollution as well as other features, the electric vehicle has gradually become one of the new energy cars that all countries competed to develop. Compared with the traditional mature technology of low risk and low uncertainty, electric vehicle is still an emerging technology. Its R&D activities and market investment are in the initial stage of exploration, with high risk and high uncertainty. At present, the selection and implementation of technological innovation mode has become the major factor for the future development of electric car industry in China. However, the existing research cares less about how enterprises quantitatively choose the innovation model and how to carry on the investment decision under such model. In order to make up the deficiency of present study, based on the real option method and technological innovation theory, the paper studies China's electric car industry on the selection and implementation of technological innovation mode and related problems, and reveals how companies select innovation mode and make investment decision according to their own innovation capability parameter.
The paper focuses on the following three aspects:(1) Based on the knowledge capacity feature of three innovation models, Nash Bargaining Solution is introduced to select technological innovation game model. Based on innovation difficulty, and various options obtained return, enterprises can select three strategies:original innovation, cooperative innovation and imitative innovation.(2) Using the real option method to establish investment decision mode for enterprises under each innovation model. In order to make clear the investment decision condition for enterprises, they can make full use of the option value generated from uncertainty, and select optimal investment opportunity in a flexible way, according to obtained uncertain information in the R&D and industrialization phase.(3) Selects BYD as a representative electric car industry for research, by using the method of numerical calculation, verifies the accuracy of three established investment decision-making model in the practice, and puts forward security measures for the achievement of electric car technology at China's present stage.
Through research on technological innovation models and investment decision-making process, the paper obtains the following conclusions:
(1)Through the hypothesis of enterprises'innovation ability parameter and introducing the behavioral game theory and Nash bargaining solution, the paper obtains innovation revenues for enterprise under each model. Revenue gained under imitative innovation model and cooperative innovation model is greater than that under original innovation model, so enterprises will not select original innovation model when the cooperative innovation or imitative innovation can be carried out. When the revenue from cooperative innovation is greater than that from imitative innovation, enterprises will select cooperative innovation in order to pay less technology transaction costs. When the ratio between project R&D cost and project value is small, enterprises will select imitative innovation, because the right for profits distribution is relatively small if select cooperative innovation. But along with the technical accumulation, original innovation capability parameter increases when enterprises undertaking imitative and cooperative innovation, and when the original innovation revenue surpasses the cooperative innovation, enterprises will undertake original innovation. In addition, in selection of cooperative innovation partners, enterprises will choose to cooperate with companies that have relatively high innovation capability parameter. After technology transferring to enterprises with low original innovation capability, the transferring enterprises can receive more patent transfer fee through negotiation.
(2)Using real option method to establish investment decision-making model under original innovation, imitative innovation and cooperative innovation, critical value of investment in every stage under innovation model is obtained. The result shows:in the industrialization stage of original innovation, the optimal investment time for enterprises is when project value firstly reaches or exceeds the critical value; in the R&D stage, the optimal R&D time for enterprises is when project option value reaches or firstly exceeds the R&D cost. In the industrialization stage, R&D stage and stage under cooperative innovation, the optimal investment time is when the product price exceeds the corresponding critical product price in each stage. Enterprises can carry on the follow-up investment stage work as long as the product price exceeds the critical value in the introduction phase. The optimal investment time for enterprises in the imitative innovation is when the product price firstly reaches or exceeds the optical critical investment value, while the optimal market entry time is when the project price reaches or exceeds the critical value.
(3)Through research on investment decision of technology innovation project by BYD Ltd., the result shows that the optimal investment decision time under the three models consists with that of theoretical model. In the industrialization stage of original innovation, the increase of volatility and risk-free interest rate will cause the increase of project critical value. In the introduction stage of cooperative innovation, the critical value of unit price increases along with the volatility; the option value will increase and the critical value of unit price will decrease when the expected price growth rate increases; the option value will decrease and the critical value of unit price will increase when risk free interest rate increases. In the R&D stage of imitative innovation, when the product cost coefficient is constant and jumping degree increases, the successful R&D time will occur ahead of time and the project price will drop. When the product cost coefficient is stable, critical value of project price will increase. Quality improves, which means the success rate increases, the successful R&D time will occur ahead of time and the critical value of project price will drop.
论文重点开展了以下三方面的工作：(1)基于三种创新模式的知识能力特征,构建了纳什谈判解的技术创新模式选择博弈模型。企业可以根据创新难度,及各种选择下获得的收益比较,来选择原始创新、合作创新及模仿创新三种策略。(2)利用实物期权方法构建了企业在各种创新模式下的投资决策模型。企业可以充分利用不确定性带来的期权价值,在研发和市场化等阶段根据不确定信息的获得而灵活选择企业最优的投资时机,从而明确企业的投资决策条件。(3)选取电动汽车业具有代表性的比亚迪公司为研究对象,通过数值计算的方法验证前文中建立的三种投资决策模型在实践中的准确性,并提出现阶段我国电动汽车技术实现的保障措施。
通过这些探索,论文在研究企业技术创新模式选择及其实现的投资决策过程中取得了以下主要结论：
(1)论文通过假设企业自身创新能力参数,引入行为博弈理论和纳什谈判解,得到企业在各模式下的创新收益,研究结果表明：企业进行模仿创新和合作创新时收益均大于原始创新时的收益,因此企业在能进行合作创新或模仿创新时,不会选择原始创新模式。当合作创新收益大于模仿创新时,为支付较少技术交易费用,企业会选择合作创新。而当项目研发费用与项目价值比值较小时,企业如果合作创新,其分配利润的话语权较小,此时企业会选择模仿创新；但企业进行模仿和合作创新时,随技术的积累,自身原始创新能力参数增加,当原始创新收益将大于合作创新,企业会进行原始创新。此外,企业在选择合作创新伙伴时,会选择合作创新能力参数较高的企业进行合作创新,在把技术转让给原始创新能力较低的企业后,转让企业可通过协商获得更多的专利转让费。
(2)通过实物期权方法构建企业原始创新、模仿创新及合作创新模式的投资决策模型,得到企业在创新模式下各阶段的投资临界值。结果表明企业在原始创新市场化阶段,其投资的最优时机是项目价值首次达到或超过临界价值时；在研发阶段,企业的最优研发时机是项目期权价值达到或首次超过研发成本时。企业在合作创新市场化阶段、研发阶段和引进阶段,其最优投资时机是产品价格大于对应的各阶段产品临界价格时,企业只要引进阶段产品价格大于临界价格时,企业就可以进行后续的投资阶段的工作。企业在模仿创新阶段的最优时刻是产品的价格首次达到或超过模仿创新最优的投资临界值时,此时企业的投资是最优的,而企业模仿创新模式下进入市场最优时机是当项目的价格达到或超过临界值。
(3)通过对比亚迪股份有限公司技术创新项目投资决策进行实证研究,结果表明企业三种模式下的投资决策最优时机与理论模型结果一致。企业原始创新市场化阶段波动率和无风险利率的增加,会导致项目临界值的增加。在合作创新引进阶段,单位产品价格的临界值会随波动率的增加而增加；预期价格增长率的增大,期权价值会提高,但单位产品价格临界值会降低；无风险利率的上升会导致期权价值的下降,而单位产品价格临界值会升高。模仿创新研发阶段,当产品成本系数不变时,跳跃程度变大时,研发成功时间将提前,项目价格下降。当产品成本系数增大时,项目价格临界值也将增大。提高质量,表示当成功率变大时,研发成功的时间将提前,项目价格临界值会下降。
In recent years, with the sustained growth of national economy, the automobile industry has become a pillar industry in China. Due to its low resource consumption and little environmental pollution as well as other features, the electric vehicle has gradually become one of the new energy cars that all countries competed to develop. Compared with the traditional mature technology of low risk and low uncertainty, electric vehicle is still an emerging technology. Its R&D activities and market investment are in the initial stage of exploration, with high risk and high uncertainty. At present, the selection and implementation of technological innovation mode has become the major factor for the future development of electric car industry in China. However, the existing research cares less about how enterprises quantitatively choose the innovation model and how to carry on the investment decision under such model. In order to make up the deficiency of present study, based on the real option method and technological innovation theory, the paper studies China's electric car industry on the selection and implementation of technological innovation mode and related problems, and reveals how companies select innovation mode and make investment decision according to their own innovation capability parameter.
The paper focuses on the following three aspects:(1) Based on the knowledge capacity feature of three innovation models, Nash Bargaining Solution is introduced to select technological innovation game model. Based on innovation difficulty, and various options obtained return, enterprises can select three strategies:original innovation, cooperative innovation and imitative innovation.(2) Using the real option method to establish investment decision mode for enterprises under each innovation model. In order to make clear the investment decision condition for enterprises, they can make full use of the option value generated from uncertainty, and select optimal investment opportunity in a flexible way, according to obtained uncertain information in the R&D and industrialization phase.(3) Selects BYD as a representative electric car industry for research, by using the method of numerical calculation, verifies the accuracy of three established investment decision-making model in the practice, and puts forward security measures for the achievement of electric car technology at China's present stage.
Through research on technological innovation models and investment decision-making process, the paper obtains the following conclusions:
(1)Through the hypothesis of enterprises'innovation ability parameter and introducing the behavioral game theory and Nash bargaining solution, the paper obtains innovation revenues for enterprise under each model. Revenue gained under imitative innovation model and cooperative innovation model is greater than that under original innovation model, so enterprises will not select original innovation model when the cooperative innovation or imitative innovation can be carried out. When the revenue from cooperative innovation is greater than that from imitative innovation, enterprises will select cooperative innovation in order to pay less technology transaction costs. When the ratio between project R&D cost and project value is small, enterprises will select imitative innovation, because the right for profits distribution is relatively small if select cooperative innovation. But along with the technical accumulation, original innovation capability parameter increases when enterprises undertaking imitative and cooperative innovation, and when the original innovation revenue surpasses the cooperative innovation, enterprises will undertake original innovation. In addition, in selection of cooperative innovation partners, enterprises will choose to cooperate with companies that have relatively high innovation capability parameter. After technology transferring to enterprises with low original innovation capability, the transferring enterprises can receive more patent transfer fee through negotiation.
(2)Using real option method to establish investment decision-making model under original innovation, imitative innovation and cooperative innovation, critical value of investment in every stage under innovation model is obtained. The result shows:in the industrialization stage of original innovation, the optimal investment time for enterprises is when project value firstly reaches or exceeds the critical value; in the R&D stage, the optimal R&D time for enterprises is when project option value reaches or firstly exceeds the R&D cost. In the industrialization stage, R&D stage and stage under cooperative innovation, the optimal investment time is when the product price exceeds the corresponding critical product price in each stage. Enterprises can carry on the follow-up investment stage work as long as the product price exceeds the critical value in the introduction phase. The optimal investment time for enterprises in the imitative innovation is when the product price firstly reaches or exceeds the optical critical investment value, while the optimal market entry time is when the project price reaches or exceeds the critical value.
(3)Through research on investment decision of technology innovation project by BYD Ltd., the result shows that the optimal investment decision time under the three models consists with that of theoretical model. In the industrialization stage of original innovation, the increase of volatility and risk-free interest rate will cause the increase of project critical value. In the introduction stage of cooperative innovation, the critical value of unit price increases along with the volatility; the option value will increase and the critical value of unit price will decrease when the expected price growth rate increases; the option value will decrease and the critical value of unit price will increase when risk free interest rate increases. In the R&D stage of imitative innovation, when the product cost coefficient is constant and jumping degree increases, the successful R&D time will occur ahead of time and the project price will drop. When the product cost coefficient is stable, critical value of project price will increase. Quality improves, which means the success rate increases, the successful R&D time will occur ahead of time and the critical value of project price will drop.
引文
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