中国就业的产业结构的区域差异研究
|
摘要
目前,二元结构、产业结构等结构性矛盾仍是我国经济发展中的主要矛盾,经济结构调整成为现阶段经济运行的主要特征。就业结构优化、产业结构升级及二者动态适配问题已得到党中央国务院的高度重视,《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划的建议》指出：目前经济发展中不协调和不可持续问题依然突出,产业结构不合理、就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存。中国就业结构失衡问题不仅表现在三次产业就业人数占就业总数的比例不合理,还表现在区域结构不平衡。由于劳动力要素在区域间的流动数量和频次的增加,地区间就业的产业结构分布产生不均衡的态势,区域就业结构优化与区域产业结构升级的协同发展是客观规律要求。区域劳动力的质和量的需求在区域产业结构调整过程中需要不断调整,以促使区域就业结构得到优化和升级,与调整中的区域产业结构动态匹配适应。我国区域产业结构的持续升级,必然要求区域就业结构持续性优化与之协同匹配。区域就业结构优化与产业结构升级的动态适配已成为各区域政府最急需解决的实践难题。从理论研究方面来看,综合分析国内外学者的相关研究成果可以发现,尚未有现代经济理论没有系统地研究就业结构区域差异形成的内在规律,以及宏观的区域就业结构优化与区域产业结构升级动态协调匹配的机制。目前国内研究就业结构的文献较多,但是对于区域就业结构的研究大多局限于对某一地区就业结构数据的描述性统计和简单趋势预测上,缺乏系统性和理论性。因此,全面系统地从区域差异的视角研究就业的产业结构,对于促进区域产业发展和就业水平的协调发展,找出真正阻碍我国区域就业结构优化的因素并提出措施具有重要意义。
本文运用劳动经济学、产业经济学、区域经济学、新经济地理学及计量经济学等学科的相关理论,借鉴已有文献的研究成果,利用相关统计年鉴的宏观数据及实地调查的微观资料,采用多元回归模型、结构突变理论、收敛性分析等实证分析方法,从区域差异的视角对中国就业的产业结构进行了系统研究。本文的研究内容主要包括：(1)通过突协整的方法与工具,利用单位根模型对产业结构与就业结构的协整性进行计量分析,判断就业的产业结构的结构突变类型,探索产业结构与就业结构协同发展的途径。(2)把握我国区域就业结构演进的特殊性,对我国各地区的就业的产业结构进行分类研究,探讨就业结构演进过程中的区域差异问题,通过就业结构的区位商、区域差异变动系数、就业弹性、就业结构偏离度和相对劳动生产率的区域比较分析探析就业结构演进的影响因素。通过区域差异比较研究来揭示就业结构演进的基本特征,并得到相关的经济政策启示。(3)对我国不同类型区域的就业结构收敛性问题进行泰尔指数检验、σ收敛性检验和β收敛性检验,以探讨我国区域之间是否存在就业的产业结构的收敛性以及收敛类型。(4)综合分析系统内外各种因素对产业间劳动力配置的影响,判别区域就业结构变动的影响因素和作用机制。(5)讨论我国就业结构的合理性和就业结构调整的可能性问题,构建既有利于经济增长又有利于扩大就业的就业结构优化调控模型,探讨我国就业结构优化的方向和目标,提出对地方政府宏观调控政策和区域调整的框架和具体对策措施。
本文对于我国就业的产业结构的区域差异问题研究提出了新的研究视角和研究框架,具体的创新点体现在：(1)采用结构突变模型描述我国就业的产业结构演进过程,对就业结构与产业结构之间的偏离程度与人均GDP的协整性和稳定趋势进行验证,探索就业的产业结构优化水平与经济增长之间的协整关系,为构建就业的产业结构优化的比例关系和提出相关政策启示搭建了理论基础。(2)提出衡量就业的产业结构的区域差异的综合性指标——区域差异系数,克服相对劳动生产率、产业结构偏离度和就业弹性难以通过一个指标对不同地区间就业的产业结构的总体差异进行比较的局限性,并运用就业的产业结构的区域差异系数、区位商等指标从不同角度分别对我国就业的产业结构的区域差异进行动态分析。(3)利用泰尔指数的分解,对我国就业的产业结构总体差异分解为东部、中部和西部三大区域之间的差异和三大区域内各省之间的差异,进一步从差异的区域构成和区域内差异的变化来揭示中国就业的产业结构区域差异的变化过程。(4)将收敛性分析理论引入到就业的产业结构的区域差异研究中,结合我国就业的产业结构的省际面板数据进行了σ收敛和β收敛检验,界定就业的产业结构收敛性的内涵,特征和收敛类型,并且测度收敛速度,以分析我国东部、中部和西部地区就业结构面板数据的敛散性特征。
At present, the structural contradiction is still the main contradiction of the economic development in China, such as dual structure industrial structure the economic structure, etc. and structural adjustment become the main characteristics of economic operation at this stage. The employment structure optimization, the upgrading of the industrial structure and the dynamic adaptation of both has received high attention from China central government and the State Council. The recommendations of CPC Central Committee on the twelfth five-year plan of national economy and social development pointed out that economic development uncoordinated and unsustainable problems still outstanding at present, and the unreasonable industrial structure, total employment pressure and structural contradictions coexist. China's employment structure imbalance not only displays in unreasonable proportion of employment of the three industries, as well as in unbalance of regional structure. As the quantity and the frequency in the labor migration among Chinese regions increases, the non-balanced development situation of regional employment structure and industrial structure has been shown on. Regional employment structure optimization and coordinated development with upgrading of the regional industrial structure comply with the demand of the objective laws. Demand of quality and quantity of regional labor in the regional industrial structure adjustment process needs to be adjusted constantly, so as to promote optimization and upgrading of the regional employment structure, and adapt to the dynamic matching to adjustment of regional industrial structure. Continuous upgrade of the regional industrial structure, inevitably require optimization of employment structure and sustainability of the collaborative matching. Dynamic adaptation of the regional employment structure optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure has become the most urgent practical problems need to resolve to the regional governments. According to the theoretical research, though there is a great amount of literatures related to employment structure in the domestic study, regional employment structure research mainly focus on the different data descriptive statistics and simple trend prediction of employment structure, relative lack of systematic and theoretical. With comprehensive analysis of relevant research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, it can be found that the modern economic theory have not systematically study the inherent law of formation of regional differences in employment structure, and there are less systemic research of dynamic macro-matching mechanism of regional employment structure optimization and regional industrial structure upgrading. Therefore, studying industrial structure of employment from the regional differences perspective in the comprehensive and holistic premise have important significances to promote coordinated of regional industrial development and employment level, and find out the real factors hinder regional optimization of employment structure, and puts forward some measures.
This paper uses the theories of labor economics, industry economics, regional economics, econometrics and the existing relevant references, choosing macro data of relevant statistical yearbook and micro data of field survey, using empirical analysis method such as the multiple regression models, the theory of structural change, convergence analysis, and so on. The contents of this dissertation are mainly consisted of the following parts:(1) through method and tool of the co-integration with structural change, make quantitative analysis on the industrial structure and employment structure of co-integration sex measurement using of unit root model, estimate structural mutation type of industrial structure of employment, search the ways of promoting both coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure;(2) discuss the particularity of the regional employment structure evolution and regional difference in the process of evolution of employment structure based on classification research, and analyze influence factors and essential characteristic in evolution of employment structure, through location quotient of the employment structure, coefficient of regional difference variation, employment elasticity, the employment structure deviation and comparative analysis of regional relative labor productivity, to get the relevant economic policy implications;(3) make Theil index inspection, a convergence test and β convergence test to different types of regional employment structure in order to probe into the existence of convergence in employment of industrial structure among regions and convergence type;(4) analyze comprehensively the influence of all sorts of factors inside and outside on the labor force distribution among industries, and distinguish the influence factors and mechanism of structural changes of regional employment;(5) discuss the possibility of setting up an adjusting model for employment structure optimization which is advantageous to economic growth and job enlargement, and discuss direction and target of employment structure optimization in China, and puts forward the macro-control policies of local government, regional adjustment framework and specific measures.
the main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1) describe China's employment structure evolution process by the structure mutation model and check the stability trend and co-integration of the inter-industry transfer of labor, and search the cointegration relation between optimization of industrial structure of employment and economic growth, to establishes theoretic basic framework of relative policies;(2) first proposed the conception of Regional Difference Coefficient, which is a comprehensive index to measure regional difference of industrial structure of employment, overcome the limitation of relative labor productivity, degree of deviation and elasticity of employment;(3) By calculating Theil Index of the industrial structure of employment in China,overall difference is decomposed into the differrence between the eastern, central and western regions and the differences between provinces in their region, and uncover further the changes of Chinese industrial structure of employment from the regional structrue of differences and inner-regional difference;(4) bring the convergence analysis into the field of industrial structure of employment study, combined with test of ρ convergence and β convergence, and make further regional segmentation to the provinces of eastern, central and western areas, to analyze the convergence and divergence of panel data of Chinese employment structure, and then define the connotation, characteristics and types of convergence of the industrial structure and measure the convergence speed so as to build a theoretical foundation to put forward the relevant policy implications.
本文运用劳动经济学、产业经济学、区域经济学、新经济地理学及计量经济学等学科的相关理论,借鉴已有文献的研究成果,利用相关统计年鉴的宏观数据及实地调查的微观资料,采用多元回归模型、结构突变理论、收敛性分析等实证分析方法,从区域差异的视角对中国就业的产业结构进行了系统研究。本文的研究内容主要包括：(1)通过突协整的方法与工具,利用单位根模型对产业结构与就业结构的协整性进行计量分析,判断就业的产业结构的结构突变类型,探索产业结构与就业结构协同发展的途径。(2)把握我国区域就业结构演进的特殊性,对我国各地区的就业的产业结构进行分类研究,探讨就业结构演进过程中的区域差异问题,通过就业结构的区位商、区域差异变动系数、就业弹性、就业结构偏离度和相对劳动生产率的区域比较分析探析就业结构演进的影响因素。通过区域差异比较研究来揭示就业结构演进的基本特征,并得到相关的经济政策启示。(3)对我国不同类型区域的就业结构收敛性问题进行泰尔指数检验、σ收敛性检验和β收敛性检验,以探讨我国区域之间是否存在就业的产业结构的收敛性以及收敛类型。(4)综合分析系统内外各种因素对产业间劳动力配置的影响,判别区域就业结构变动的影响因素和作用机制。(5)讨论我国就业结构的合理性和就业结构调整的可能性问题,构建既有利于经济增长又有利于扩大就业的就业结构优化调控模型,探讨我国就业结构优化的方向和目标,提出对地方政府宏观调控政策和区域调整的框架和具体对策措施。
本文对于我国就业的产业结构的区域差异问题研究提出了新的研究视角和研究框架,具体的创新点体现在：(1)采用结构突变模型描述我国就业的产业结构演进过程,对就业结构与产业结构之间的偏离程度与人均GDP的协整性和稳定趋势进行验证,探索就业的产业结构优化水平与经济增长之间的协整关系,为构建就业的产业结构优化的比例关系和提出相关政策启示搭建了理论基础。(2)提出衡量就业的产业结构的区域差异的综合性指标——区域差异系数,克服相对劳动生产率、产业结构偏离度和就业弹性难以通过一个指标对不同地区间就业的产业结构的总体差异进行比较的局限性,并运用就业的产业结构的区域差异系数、区位商等指标从不同角度分别对我国就业的产业结构的区域差异进行动态分析。(3)利用泰尔指数的分解,对我国就业的产业结构总体差异分解为东部、中部和西部三大区域之间的差异和三大区域内各省之间的差异,进一步从差异的区域构成和区域内差异的变化来揭示中国就业的产业结构区域差异的变化过程。(4)将收敛性分析理论引入到就业的产业结构的区域差异研究中,结合我国就业的产业结构的省际面板数据进行了σ收敛和β收敛检验,界定就业的产业结构收敛性的内涵,特征和收敛类型,并且测度收敛速度,以分析我国东部、中部和西部地区就业结构面板数据的敛散性特征。
At present, the structural contradiction is still the main contradiction of the economic development in China, such as dual structure industrial structure the economic structure, etc. and structural adjustment become the main characteristics of economic operation at this stage. The employment structure optimization, the upgrading of the industrial structure and the dynamic adaptation of both has received high attention from China central government and the State Council. The recommendations of CPC Central Committee on the twelfth five-year plan of national economy and social development pointed out that economic development uncoordinated and unsustainable problems still outstanding at present, and the unreasonable industrial structure, total employment pressure and structural contradictions coexist. China's employment structure imbalance not only displays in unreasonable proportion of employment of the three industries, as well as in unbalance of regional structure. As the quantity and the frequency in the labor migration among Chinese regions increases, the non-balanced development situation of regional employment structure and industrial structure has been shown on. Regional employment structure optimization and coordinated development with upgrading of the regional industrial structure comply with the demand of the objective laws. Demand of quality and quantity of regional labor in the regional industrial structure adjustment process needs to be adjusted constantly, so as to promote optimization and upgrading of the regional employment structure, and adapt to the dynamic matching to adjustment of regional industrial structure. Continuous upgrade of the regional industrial structure, inevitably require optimization of employment structure and sustainability of the collaborative matching. Dynamic adaptation of the regional employment structure optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure has become the most urgent practical problems need to resolve to the regional governments. According to the theoretical research, though there is a great amount of literatures related to employment structure in the domestic study, regional employment structure research mainly focus on the different data descriptive statistics and simple trend prediction of employment structure, relative lack of systematic and theoretical. With comprehensive analysis of relevant research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, it can be found that the modern economic theory have not systematically study the inherent law of formation of regional differences in employment structure, and there are less systemic research of dynamic macro-matching mechanism of regional employment structure optimization and regional industrial structure upgrading. Therefore, studying industrial structure of employment from the regional differences perspective in the comprehensive and holistic premise have important significances to promote coordinated of regional industrial development and employment level, and find out the real factors hinder regional optimization of employment structure, and puts forward some measures.
This paper uses the theories of labor economics, industry economics, regional economics, econometrics and the existing relevant references, choosing macro data of relevant statistical yearbook and micro data of field survey, using empirical analysis method such as the multiple regression models, the theory of structural change, convergence analysis, and so on. The contents of this dissertation are mainly consisted of the following parts:(1) through method and tool of the co-integration with structural change, make quantitative analysis on the industrial structure and employment structure of co-integration sex measurement using of unit root model, estimate structural mutation type of industrial structure of employment, search the ways of promoting both coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure;(2) discuss the particularity of the regional employment structure evolution and regional difference in the process of evolution of employment structure based on classification research, and analyze influence factors and essential characteristic in evolution of employment structure, through location quotient of the employment structure, coefficient of regional difference variation, employment elasticity, the employment structure deviation and comparative analysis of regional relative labor productivity, to get the relevant economic policy implications;(3) make Theil index inspection, a convergence test and β convergence test to different types of regional employment structure in order to probe into the existence of convergence in employment of industrial structure among regions and convergence type;(4) analyze comprehensively the influence of all sorts of factors inside and outside on the labor force distribution among industries, and distinguish the influence factors and mechanism of structural changes of regional employment;(5) discuss the possibility of setting up an adjusting model for employment structure optimization which is advantageous to economic growth and job enlargement, and discuss direction and target of employment structure optimization in China, and puts forward the macro-control policies of local government, regional adjustment framework and specific measures.
the main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1) describe China's employment structure evolution process by the structure mutation model and check the stability trend and co-integration of the inter-industry transfer of labor, and search the cointegration relation between optimization of industrial structure of employment and economic growth, to establishes theoretic basic framework of relative policies;(2) first proposed the conception of Regional Difference Coefficient, which is a comprehensive index to measure regional difference of industrial structure of employment, overcome the limitation of relative labor productivity, degree of deviation and elasticity of employment;(3) By calculating Theil Index of the industrial structure of employment in China,overall difference is decomposed into the differrence between the eastern, central and western regions and the differences between provinces in their region, and uncover further the changes of Chinese industrial structure of employment from the regional structrue of differences and inner-regional difference;(4) bring the convergence analysis into the field of industrial structure of employment study, combined with test of ρ convergence and β convergence, and make further regional segmentation to the provinces of eastern, central and western areas, to analyze the convergence and divergence of panel data of Chinese employment structure, and then define the connotation, characteristics and types of convergence of the industrial structure and measure the convergence speed so as to build a theoretical foundation to put forward the relevant policy implications.
引文
1 于光远.经济大辞典：工业经济卷.上海：上海辞书出版社,1983.9
2 马克思.资本论(第二卷).北京人民出版社,19753.P263
3 资料来源：国家统计局关于印发《三次产业划分规定》的通知.国统字[2003]14号
1 Barro Robert J.and Sala-i-Martin Xavier. Eeonomic Growth and Convergence Across the United States[C].NBER Working PaPer,1990, No.3419
1 Barro Robert J. and Sala-i-Martin Xavier Economic Growth Section of Political Eeonomy[J].Quarterly Journalof Ecomonies,1991 (106):2407-443
2 周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计.经济研究,2009.6：40-51
1 Chenery H B,Elkington H,Sims C.A uniform a-nalysis of development pattern,harvard universitycenter for international affairs. Economic Devel-opment Report.1970
1 赵杨,刘延平.我国产业结构与就业的产业结构的关联性分析[J].经济学动态,2010.12
1 威廉·配第.配第经济著作选集[M].北京：商务印书馆,1981：19-20.
2 克拉克.经济进步的条件(第三版)[M].伦敦： 麦克米兰出版公司,1957： 22-24
1 库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长：总产值和生产结构[M].北京：商务印书馆,1985：8
2 钱纳里.发展的型式,1950-1970[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1988：31-33
1 钱纳里等.工业化与经济增长的比较研究[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989：141-144.
1 马晓河.迈过“中等收入陷阱”的需求结构演变与产业结构调整[J].宏观经济研究.2010.11,p8
1 盛昭翰,蒋德鹏著.演化经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,2002.1.p31
1 数据来源：国际劳动组织网站http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest
2 数据来源：何德功.日本就业结构变化的启示.经济参考报,2011.1.14
3 数据来源：国际劳动组织网站http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest
1 王少平.宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用[M].南开大学出版社.2003.9：132
2 Levin A, Lin C F, Chu C S.Unit root tests in panel data:Asymp-totic and finite sample properties[J]. Journal of Econometrics.2002,108(1):1-24.
3 Im K S, Pesaran M H, Shin Y.Testing for unit roots in heteroge-neous panels[J].Journal of Econometrics.2003,115(1): 53-74
4 Maddala G S, Wu S.A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple approach[J].Oxford Bulletin of Eco-nomics and Statistics.1999,61 (4):631-652.
1 王少平.宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用.南开大学出版社.2003.9.133-136
1 马薇.协整理论与应用.南开大学出版社,2004.2
1 马薇.协整理论及应用[M].南开大学出版社.2004.2：95
1 吕政,郭克莎,张其仔.论我国传统工业化道路的经验与教训.中国工业经济,2003.1
1 华尔诚.服务业发展不起来有可能成为“瓶颈”.宏观经济管理,2000.10
2 数据来源：江苏人力资源和社会保障网http://www.jshrss.gov.cn/file/service/.
3 数据来源：山东用工缺口将达20万每年力争新增就业百万人.半岛都市报.2011.2.16
1 Rodgers A.Some Aspects of industrial diversification in the United States[J]. Economic Geography,1957,33:16-30.
2 Parr.J.Specialization, diversification and regional development[J]. Professional Geography,1965,6:21-25.
3 Attaran M. Industrial diversity and economic performance in U.S. areas[J].Annals of Regional Science,1986,20:44-54.
4 Malizia E, Ke S. The influence of economic diversity on unemploy-ment and stability[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 1993,33:221-235.
5 Siegel P, Johnson T, Alwang J. Regional economic diversity and diversification[J].Growth and Change,1995,26: 261-85.
6 SchuhE, Barghout.Agricultural diversification in Asia[J].Finance and Development,1988,25:41-44.
Sykes J. Diversification of industry [J]. The Economic Journal,1950,60:697-714.
1 Jacobs J. The Economy of Cities[M]. New York and Toronto,1969.
2 Glaeser E. L., Kallal H. D., Scheinkman. H. A., Shleifer A. Growth in cities [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1992, 100:1126-1152
3 宁军明.经济结构、知识溢出与中国区域经济增长[J].当代财经,2008.4,p14-22
1 黎贵才.增长与就业的动态结构分析[M].经济科学出版社,2001.6,p156
1 Julide Yildidm, Nadir Ocal and suheyla Ozyildirim. Ineome Inequality and Economic Convergence in Turkey: A Spatial Effect Analysis [J]. Intenational Regional Review 2009.4.32 (2):221-254
2 金相郁.区域经济增长收敛的分析方法[J].数量经济技术研究,2006(3)
3 Quah, Danny. Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergenee [J]. European Economic Review,1996, Vol.4: (6):1353-1375
1 Bemard A., and S. N. Durlauf. Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Eeonometries, 1996 (71):161-173
2 Rey, S. and B. Montouri. US Regional Ineome Convergenee:A Spatial Econometric PersPective[J]. Regional Studies,1999 (33):46-56.
3 Anca Carrington. A Divided Europe? Regional Convergence and Neighborhood Spillovers Effeets[R]. KYKLOS 2003 (56):381-394.
Ying. Understanding China's Recent Growth Experience:A Spatial Eeonometric PersPective [J]. The Annuls of Regional Seience.2001 (37):613-628.
2 东部包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、山东、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、广东、海南；中部包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南；西部包括广西、贵州、云南、陕西、四川、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆。
3 由于西藏数据缺失严重,因此统计分析中未包括西藏；同时,由于重庆只有1997年以后的数据,因此将其数据加入到四川省进行分析。
4 以上资料中缺漏的数据来自于中华人民共和国国家统计局网站：http//www.states.gon.cn/。
5 计算公式来源于：胡鞍钢,邹平.社会与发展——中国社会发展地区差距研究[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社,2000。
1 Henri Theil.Economics and Information Theory [M].Rand Me Nally and Company,1967.
1 刘树成,张晓晶.中国经济持续高增长的特点和地区间经济差异的缩小[J].经济研究.2007.10.p17-31
1 刘树成,张晓晶.中国经济持续高增长的特点和地区间经济差异的缩小[J].经济研究,2007.10,pp17-31
1 Hsiao Cheng. Analysis of Panel Date[M]. Cambridge University Press,2003.
1 杨宜勇.人口老龄化背景下我国就业政策与人口政策的完善.中国金融,2008.7：45-47
1 翟振武,侯佳伟.人口素质逆淘汰：一个没有事实根据的假说.中国人口科学,2007.1
1 Castells, Manuel. Path towards the informational society:Employment structure in G-7 countries,1920-90. International Labour Review.1994,133 (1):5.
1 Mortensen, Dale. Unemployment responses to 'skill-biased' technology shocks:the role of labour market policy. Economic Journal. Vol.109(4),1999:242.
1 2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据.国家统计局网站http://www.stats.gov.cn
2 2000年全国人口普查数据.国家统计局网站http://www.stats.gov.cn
3 国家统计局.改革开放30年报告之八：农业与农村经济三十年辉煌成就
1 克拉克.经济进步的条件.麦克米兰,1940(英文版),第5章
2 这里的比较劳动生产率指部门的国民收入占总国民收入的比重与部门的劳动力在总劳动力的比重之比。引自：西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长——总产值和生产结构.商务印书馆,1985.329-334.
3 马克思恩格斯全集(第三卷)[M].北京：北京人民出版社,1995：85
4 杨小凯.经济学原理[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1998：123-149
1 Young, Allyn A. Increasing Returns and Economic Progress, Economic Journal, vol.38,1928. p527-42.
2 袁伦渠.劳动经济学(第2版)[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2007.9,p154
[1]袁伦渠.劳动经济学(第2版)[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2007.9：154
[2]杨小凯.经济学原理[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.1998：48-55
[3]高培勇.公共经济学.[M]北京：中国人民大学出版社.2001：78
[4]威廉·配第.政治算术[M].商务印书馆,1928：19-20
[5]罗伯特·J·巴罗.经济增长的决定因素：跨国经验分析[M].中国人民大学出版社,2004.9：122
[6]罗伯特·M·索洛.经济增长因素分析[M],商务印书馆,2003.3：258
[7]西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长—总产值和生产结构[M].商务印书馆,1985：329--334.
[8]钱纳里,鲁宾逊,塞尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海三联书店,1995.2：145
[9]钱纳里,塞尔昆.发展的格局1950-1970[M].中国财政经济出版社,1989.4：126
[10]克拉克.经济进步的条件.麦克米兰,1940(英文版)[M].伦敦：麦克米兰出版公司,1957.9：22-24
[11]刘怀德.不确定经济学研究.第1版[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社.2001.5：155
[12]马克思.资本论(第二卷)[M].北京：人民出版社,1975：263
[13]曼昆,经济学原理(下册)[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2001：33
[14]曹沛霖.政府与市场[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社.1998：54-60
[15]杨先明.劳动力市场运行研究[M].北京：商务印书馆,1999：269-280
[16]杨小凯.经济学原理[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.1998：67
[17]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京：商务印书馆.1988：75
[18]奥利弗·威廉姆森,资本主义经济制度[M].北京：商务印书馆.2003：63
[19]弗里德曼.胡骑等译.自由选择[M].北京：商务印书馆.1982：89
[20]史尼斯.索卡尔著.刘铁桥译.数值分类学——数值分类的原理和应用[M].北京：科学出版社.1984：54
[21]张孝德.模式经济学新探[M].北京：经济管理出版社.2002：34
[22]郭树清.模式的变革与变革的模式[M].上海：上海三联书店.1994：69
[23]鲍德威.威迪逊.邓力平译.公共部门经济学.北京：中国人民大学出版社.1997：22
[24]布坎南.穆怀明译.民主财政论——财政制度和个人选择[M].北京：商务印书馆.1993：22
[25]高培勇.公共经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2001：54
[26]弗里德曼.胡骑等译.自由选择.北京：商务印书馆.1982：87
[27]马胜杰.夏杰长.公共经济学[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社.2003：98
[28]缪勒.杨春学等译[M].公共选择理论.北京：中国社会科学出版社.1999：87
[29]曾湘泉.劳动经济学[M].上海：复旦大学出版社.2010：182
[30]菲利普·阿吉翁,彼得·霍依特.陶然等译.内生增长理论[M]北京：北京大学出版社,2004：257
[31]盛昭翰,蒋德鹏.演进经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,2002.1：31
[32]陈平.文明分岔、经济混沌和演进经济动力学[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2004：213-245
[33]陈桢.经济增长的就业效应研究：基于经济转型与结构调整视角下的分析[M].经济管理出版社.2007.6：61-67
[34]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1995：51-89
[35]汪斌.东亚工业化浪潮中的产业结构研究[M].杭州大学出版社,1997：20-25
[36]薛敬孝等.当代日本产业结构研究[M].天津人民出版社,2002：43
[37]田中景.日本经济：过去、现在、未来[M],北京：中国经济出版社,2004：125
[38]田明.中国就业的产业结构转变与城市化[M].科学出版社2008.3：122-139
[39]刘学军.制度转轨中的发展战略与就业增长[M].知识产权出版社.2009.1：20-47
[40]田成诗.中国就业的宏观经济决定机制研究[M].人民出版社.2010.11：165-190
[41]赖德胜.中国就业60年：1949-2009[M].中国劳动社会保障出版社.2010.1：212-260
[42]马薇.协整理论及应用[M].南开大学出版社.2004.2：74-135
[43]王少平.宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用[M].南开大学出版社.2003.9：168-193
[44]叶阿忠.非参数计量经济学[M].南开大学出版社.2003.7：15-19
[45]赵伟,藤田昌久,郑小平.空间经济学：理论与实证新进展[M].浙江大学出版社.2009.3.p
[46]张晓峒.Eviews使用指南与案例[M].机械工业出版社.2007.2：240,294
[47]M.P.柯莱蒙兹,D.F.韩瑞德,陆懋祖译.预测经济时间序列[M].北京大学出版社,2008.1：292
[48]戴维·N.德容,舍唐·戴夫.结构宏观计量经济学[M].上海财经大学出版社,2010.1：211
[49]巴尔塔基.面板数据计量经济分析(第4版)[M].机械工业出版社,2010.4：122-145
[50]郝尔穆特·鲁克波尔,马库斯·克莱茨希.应用时间序列计量经济学[M].机械工业出版社,2008.12：225
[51]刘树成.中国地区经济发展研究[M].中国统计出版社,1994：67
[52]杨艳琳.中国经济发展中的就业问题[M].山东人民出版社.2010.1：87
[53]国家统计局国民经济综合统计司.新中国六十年统计资料汇编[M].中国统计出版社.2010.1
[54]曾湘泉.“双转型”背景下的就业能力提升战略研究(中国就业战略报告2008-2010)[M].中国人民大学出版社2010.5：45
[55]黎贵才.增长与就业的动态结构分析——经济学理论的检视、模型建构与中国经验[M].经济科学出版社.2011.6：106-148
[56]林玳玳.产业结构与就业的产业结构的变化[J].上海劳动,1996(6)：21-22
[57]林玳玳.社会主义就业理论的突破[J].经济研究参考,1997.4(10)：34-35
[58]王爱文,莫荣.中国就业结构问题研究[J].管理世界.1995(4)：196-205
[59]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构和经济增长[J].中国工业经济.2002(5)：14-21
[60]张车伟,蔡防.就业弹性的变化趋势研究[J].中国工业经济2002(5)：22-30
[61]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题_产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路[J].经济研究,1999(7)5-23
[62]郭克莎.工业化与城市化关系的经济学分析[J].中国社会科学,2002(2)：7-16
[63]段敏敏,董炳南,丁建勋.产业结构变动方向、产业结构变动速度对就业的显著性分析[J].经济研究导刊.2009(7)：16-17
[64]蔡防,王德文,都阳.劳动力市场扭曲对区域差距的影响[J].中国社会科学,2001(2)：4-15
[65]蔡防,都阳.中国区域经济增长的收敛与趋异——对西部开发战略的启示[J].经济研究,2000(10)30-37
[66]张车伟.当前劳动力市场的结构性矛盾及其经济学分析[J].经济学动态,2008(3)：49-54
[67]谢正磊,林振山,管卫华,吴永生.全面建设小康社会下我国劳动力转移机制的动力学分析[J].经济问题探索,2005(3)：4-7
[68]魏后凯.中国制造业与X非效率探讨[J].产业经济研究,2003(4)：1-6
[69]刘强.中国经济增长的收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2001(6)：70-77
[70]蔡防,王德文,张华初.扩大内需的投资要更加重视就业导向[J].中国经贸导刊,2009(10)：6-7
[71]周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计[J].经济研究,2009(6)：40-49
[72]王庆丰.中国就业的产业结构滞后问题研究[J].华东经济管理.2009(9)：36-39
[73]王庆丰.中国就业的产业结构收敛问题研究[J].河南科学,2011(1)：108-111
[74]季丹.关于营造中国产业集群的一些思考[J].产业经济研究,2003(4)：38-44
[75]李金华.中国产业结构的演变轨迹、σ-收敛性与空间集聚格局[J].财贸研究,2006(2)：7-16
[76]江小涓,李辉.服务业与中国经济—相关性和加快增长的潜力[J].经济研究,2004(1)：4-15
[77]喻桂华,张春煌.中国的产业结构与就业问题[J].当代经济科学,2004(5)：9-13
[78]张建武,李永杰.产业结构与就业的产业结构互动关系及政策含义[J].广东经济管理学院学报,2005(1)：12-18
[79]王庆丰.我国产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究述评[J].华东经济管理,2010(10)：146-149
[80]刘仙梅.产业结构与就业结构关系研究综述[J].经济论坛,2010(4)：23
[81]徐鹏程,李冀,严汉平.中国区域经济增长收敛问题研究现状与展望：一个文献综述[J].福建论坛(人文社会科学版).2010(12)：13-16
[82]孙洋.产业发展战略与空间收敛：长三角、珠三角和环渤海区域增长的比较研究[J].南开经济研究,2009(1)：46-59
[83]伍海亮.我国产业结构与就业的产业结构非均衡发展的分析[学位论文].首都师范大学,2009：67-74
[84]张延平.区域人才结构动态适配区域产业结构升级研究[学位论文].中南大学,2011：33-38
[85]周兵,徐爱东.产业结构与就业的产业结构之间的构建机制——基于中国产业结构与就业的产业结构之间关系的实证[J].软科学,2008(7)：84-87.
[86]奉莹.中国就业结构演变及就业的产业结构发展趋势研究[学位论文].西南财经大学.2009：56-58
[87]王晓君,刘爱芝.山东省产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究[J].山东社会科学,2006(8)：129-133
[88]张祥晶.中国在业人口区域分布研究[学位论文].浙江大学.2010：35-38
[89]万继勋.建国以来劳动制度和就业的产业结构的演变[J]瞭望,1986(37)：18
[90]黄日强,邓志军.战后英国职业技术教育发展滞缓原因探析[J].河北科技师范学院学报(社会科学版),2006(2)：34-37
[91]毛锐.二战后英国国有化运动评述[J].探索与争鸣,2007(3)：6-8
[92]伞锋.日本终身雇佣制的文化与发展趋势[J].现代日本经济,1995(4)：33-38
[93]杨河清.日本战后经济与就业借鉴阴.经济与管理研究.1999(6)：25-28
[94]杨河清.论日本就业状态的变化及其影响因素[J].人口与经济.2001(6)：61-66
[95]姚裕群.西方国家的就业问题[J].经济与管理研究.1996(2)：62-64
[96]莫荣.中国就业55年的改革和发展[J].中国劳动.2004(11)：55-76
[97]马莉.结构突变在时间序列分析中的应用——基于我国GDP的实证研究[J].常州工学院学报.2010(2)：45-48
[98]王少平.单位根和协整及其结构变化的理论与应用研究[学位论文].清华大学,2002：25-33
[99]张晓进.协整变结构问题研究[学位论文].华中科技大学.2006：19-27
[100]沈惠娟.结构突变理论在中国就业的产业结构分析中的应用[J].统计与信息论坛,2010(3)：96-101
[101]朱慧明.余为政基于面板单位根检验的失业率结构突变研究[J].财经理论与实践,2006(9)：118-121
[102]张亮.受约束结构突变模型与面板单位根检验[学位论文].天津大学,2007(6)：55-58
[103]余为政.基于面板数据的计量经济模型构造及其应用[学位论文].湖南大学.2006：18-23
[104]刘军丽.我国三大产业就业结构与就业弹性的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2009(5)：92-94
[105]陈桢.产业结构与就业的产业结构关系失衡的实证分析[J].国民经济管理,2007(10)：32-37
[106]刘文,田利珍.三大经济区域的产业结构就业的产业结构比较研究[J].社会科学论坛.2009(10)：49-57
[107]李文星,袁志刚.中国就业的产业结构失衡：现状、原因与调整政策[J].当代财经.2010(3)：10-17
[108]张建升.物流业发展的地区差异及其收敛性分析[J].兰州商学院学报,2011(4)：18
[109]黄洪琳.中国就业的产业结构与产业结构的偏差及原因探讨[J].人口与经济.2008(4)：12-15
[110]刘建党.中国劳动生产率与就业的产业结构变化关系的实证分析[J].经济研究导刊.2008(14)： 13-15
[111]曾先峰,李国平.我国各地区的农业生产率与收敛_1980_2005[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008.(5)：81-92
[112]许正松,万青.相对劳动力成本对产业梯度转移的影响研究——基于劳动生产率的区域差异视角[J].经济经纬,2011(5)：22-27
[113]刘夏明,魏英琪,李国平.收敛还是发散?——中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004(7)：70-81
[114]林毅夫,董先安,殷韦.技术选择、技术扩散与经济收敛[J].财经问题研究,2004(6)：3-10
[115]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002(1)：33-41
[116]王志刚.质疑中国经济增长的条件收敛性[J].管理世界,2004(3)：25-40
[117]刘树成,张晓晶.中国经济持续高增长的特点和地区间经济差异的缩小[J].经济研究.2007(10)：17-31
[118]陈晓玲,李国平.地区经济收敛实证研究方法评述[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(8)：151-160
[119]王亮.经济增长收敛假说的存在性检验与形成机制研究[学位论文].吉林大学,2010(6)：6-13
[120]林仲豪.我国区域经济差异收敛弱化原因分析——基于要素极化式聚集的视角[J].山东社会科学,2008(8)：92-98
[121]李菁.我国制造业区域产业结构的收敛性研究[学位论文].吉林大学,2010：13-34
[122]刘键,蓝文永,徐荣华.对我国经济增长与就业增长非一致性的探讨分析[J].宏观经济研究,2000(3)：77-81
[123]何枫.投资与就业增长关系的理论探讨[J].陕西经贸学院学报,1998(5)：30-32
[124]盛仕斌.从投资与就业关系看解决失业的思路[J].中国工业经济,1998(5)：46-49
[125]龚玉泉,袁志刚.中国经济增长与就业增长的非一致性及其形成机理[J].经济学动态,2002(10)：35-40
[126]吕忠伟.中国各行业吸纳就业能力的实证研究[J].兰州学刊,2006(5)：171-174
[127]于爱晶,周凌瑶.我国政府投资与经济增长、居民收入和就业的关系[J].中央财经大学学报,2004(4)：22-28
[128]丁明智.外商直接投资的就业效应剖析[J].软科学,2005(3)：26-29
[129]万欣荣,史卫,方小军.外国直接投资的就业效应实证分析—以广东省就业市场为例[J],南开管理评论,2005(2)：100-107
[130]王燕飞,曾国平.FDI、就业结构及产业结构变迁[J].世界经济研究.2006(7)：25
[131]陈利敏.资本流动及对我国就业的影响阴.经济体制改革.2002(5)：22
[132]边文霞.中国就业规模与就业的产业结构问题实证研究[J].宁夏大学学报(人文社会科学版),2009(5)：119-127.
[133]边文霞.就业的产业结构内涵、理论与趋势分析——以北京市为例[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版).2009(5)：120-125
[134]曾湘泉,李洪坚.正确协调就业政策的五大关系[J].经济与管理研究.2009(3)：12-15
[135]曾湘泉.我国就业与失业的科学测量和实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理.2006(6)：28-35
[136]魏敏,李国平.基于区域要素极化式聚集的梯度推移粘性研究[J].财贸研究,2005(6)：1-5
[137]蔡昉,王美艳,曲玥.中国工业重新配置与劳动力流动趋势[J].中国工业经济.2009(8)：5-16
[138]蔡防.劳动力市场新特点和展望[J].中国发展观察.2010(11)：22-25
[139]杨永恒,胡鞍钢,张宁.中国人类发展的地区差距和不协调——历史视角下的“一个中国,四个世界”[J].经济学.2006(2)：803-816
[140]蒲艳萍.转型期的产业结构变动与中国就业效应[J].统计与决策,2008(7)：113-115
[141]孙蚌珠.中国工业化进程中就业的产业结构变动[J].北京师范大学学报,2005(5)：95-100
[142]吴小松,范金,胡汉辉.我国就业增长与结构变迁的影响因素：基于SDA的分析[J].经济科学,2007(1)：5-14
[143]夏杰长.我国劳动就业的产业结构与产业结构的偏差[J].中国工业经济,2000(1)：36-40
[144]夏晴,郑吉昌,姜红.论服务业发展与分工的演进[J]中国软科学.2004(10)：149-153
[145]吕政,郭克莎,张其仔.论我国传统工业化道路的经验与教训.中国工业经济,2003(1)：48-55
[146]周建安.中国产业结构升级与就业问题的灰色关联分析[J].财经理论与实践,2006(9)：94-98.
[147]孙建,周兵.产业结构与就业的产业结构相关性的SEM研究[J].统计与决策,2008(11)：109-111.
[148]魏作磊.对第三产业发展带动我国就业的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2004(3)：80-85.
[149]蔡翼飞,张车伟.地区差距的新视角：人口与产业分布不匹配研究[J].中国工业经济.2012(5)：31-43
[150]赵杨,刘延平.我国产业结构与就业的产业结构的关联性分析[J].经济学动态,2010.(12)：80-83
[151]姚裕群.论我国的就业问题与扩大就业的战略对策[J].广东社会科学.2008(2)：5-10
[152]Abramovitz M. Catching Up,Forging Ahead and Falling Behind [J]. The Journal of Econmic History,1986,(46) 2:385-406.
[153]Mark Dynarski, Steven M. Sheffrin. The behavior of unemployment duration over the cycle [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1990,72 (2):350-355.
[154]Ronald G Ehrenberg, Ronald L Oaxaca. Unemployment insurance,duration of unemployment and subsequent wage gain[J]. The American Economic Review,1976,66 (5):754-766.
[155]Anthony B. Atkinson, John Micklewright. Unemployment compensation and labor market transitions:a critictal review[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1991,29 (4):1679-1727.
[156]Kenneth Carling, Bertil Holmlund, Altirl Vejsiu. Do benefit cuts boost job findings? Swedish evidence from the 1990s [J]. Economic Journal,2001,111 (474):766-790.
[157]Bruce D. Meyer. Unemployment insurance and unemployment spoils [J]. Econometrica,1990,58 (4):757-782.
[158]Lawrence F. Katz, Bruce D. Meyer. The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment [J]. Journal of Public Economics,1990,41 (1):45-72.
[159]David Card, Phillip B. Levine. Extended benefits and duration of UI spells:evidence from New Jersey Extended Benefit Program [J]. Journal of Public Economics,2000,78 (1-2):107-138.
[160]Philip K. Robins, Robert G. Spiegelman. Reemployment bonuses in the unemployment insurance system:evidence from three field experiments [J]. Reference and Research Book News,2002,17 (2):64-86
[161]Janne Vesalainen, Jukka Vuori. Labour market interventions as predictors of re-employment, job seeking activity and psychological distress among the unemployed [J]. Journal of Occupational& Organizational Psychology,1999,72 (12):523-538
[162]Lea E.Waters, Kathleen A.Moore. Predicting self-esteem during unemployment:the effect of gender, financial deprivation, alternate roles, and social support [J]. Journal of Employment Counseling,2002,39 (12):171-190.
[163]Miles Corak. Measuring the duration of unemployment spells [J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,1996,29 (1):43-49.
[164]Nicholas M. Kiefer. Evidence on the role of education in labor turnover [J]. Journal of human resources,1985,20 (3):445-432.
[165]Hsiao Cheng. Analysis of Panel Date [M]. Cambridge University Press,2003.
[166]Aleksandra Rogut and Tomasz Tokarski. Regional diversity of employment structure and outflows from unemployment to employment in Poland [J]. International Journal of Manpowers, 2002,23 (1):62-76
[167]Syrquin.M.and H.B.Chenery.Three Decades of Industrialization[J].The world bank economic reviews,1989 (3):201-222
[168]Dan O'Donoghue, Ivan.Townshend.Diversification,Specialization,Convergence and Divergence of Sectoral Employment Structures ih the British Urban System,1991-2001,Regional Studies, Vol.39.5:2005
[169]Barro, R.J., Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, May,1999:407-443.
[170]Barro and Xavier Sala-I-Martin. Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, Vol100,1992: 223-251.
[171]Barro, R. J., Sala-i-Martin, X. Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 22 (1),1991:107-182.
[172]Aleksandra Rougut, Tomasz Tokarski. Regional diversity of empolyment structure and outflows from unemployment to employment in Poland[J]. International Journal of Manpower,23(1).2002
[173]Chow,GC. Test of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions[J], Economitrica,1960, vol.28:591-605.
[174]Perron P. Further evidence on breaking trend function in macroeconomic variables [J].Journal of Econometrics.1997 (3), vol.80:355-385.
[175]Cook, Steven. Further Results on the Detection of Changes in Persistence in Linear Time Series[J]. Applied Economics Letters,2007 (2), Vol.14:145-150
[176]Sala·i·Martin, X. X. The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis"[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July),1996.
[177]Abramowitz, M., Catching up, Forging Ahead and Falling Behind [J]. Journal of Economic History,46,1986:385-406.
[178]Acemoglu, Daron and Fabrizio Zilibotti. Productivity Differences, Quarterly [J].Journal of Economics.116 (2),2001:563-606.
[179]Azariadis, C., Drazen, A. Threshold externalities in economic development[J].Quarterly Journal of Economic Development 105 (2),1990:501-526.
[180]Bairam, E.I., McRae, S.D. Testing the Convergence Hypothesis:a New Approach[J].Economic Letters 64,1999:351-355.
[181]Baumol, Willian. Productivity growth, convergence and welfare:the long-run data show[J]. American Economic Reviews, Vol 76,1986:1072-1085.
[182]Mortensen, Dale. Unemployment responses to 'skill-biased'technology shocks:the role of labour market policy. Economic Journal. Vol.109(4),1999:242-265.
[183]Bernard, Andrew B. and Charles I. Jones. Comparing Apples to Oranges:Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries[J]. American Economic Review, December 86 (5),1996:1216-1238.
[184]Bianchi, M., Testing for Convergence:Evidence from Non-Parametric Multimodality Test [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics 12,1997:393-409.
[185]Caselli, F., G Esquivel and F. Lefort, Reopening the convergence debate:a new look at cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Growth 1 (3) 1996:363-89.
[186]Canova, F., Testing for convergence clubs in income per capita:a predictive density approach. International Economic Review 45 (1),2004:49-77.
[187]Cellini, R., Scorcu, A.. How Many Italies? What Data Show about Growth and Convergence across Italian Regions:1970-91. Rassegna dei Lavori dell'ISCO 14,1997:93-124.
[188]Ciccone, Antonio and Robert E. Hall. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. American Economic Review, March,86 (1),1996:54-70.
[189]Durlauf, S.N., Controversy on the convergence and divergence of growth rates[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July),1996:1016-1018.
[190]Eicher, Stephen Tumovsky., Convergence in a two-sector nonscale growth model[J]. Journal of Economic growth, Dec,1999:413-428.
[191]Galor, Convergence? Inferences from theoretical models[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July) 1996:1056-1069.
[192]Getis, A., Ord, J. K., The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics[J]. Geographical Analysis 24 (3),1992:189-206.
[193]Getis, A., Griffith, D. A., Comparative spatial filtering in regression analysis[J]. Geographical Analysis 34 (2),2002:130-140.
[194]Giovanni Caggiano, Leone Leonida, international output convergence:Evidence from an Autocorrelation Function Approach[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,10,2009:97-108.
[195]Hobijn, B., Franses, P. H., Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics 15 (1),2000:59-81.
[196]Islam, N., What Have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate? [J].Journal of Economic Surveys 17,2003:309-362.
[197]Islam, N., Small Sample Performance of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators in Estimating the Growth-Convergence Equation:A Monte Carlo Study[J]. Advances in Econometrics 15,2000: 317-339.
[198]Jones, C., On the Evolution of theWorld Income Distribution[J], Journal of Economic Perspectives,11,1997:19-36.
[199]Leonida, L., Montolio, D., On the Determinants of Convergence and Divergence Processes in SpainfJ]. Investigaciones Economicas 28,2004:123-140.
[200]Azariadis, C., Drazen, A., Threshold externalities in economic development[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economic Development 105 (2),1990:501-526.
[201]Bairam, E.I., McRae, S.D., Testing the Convergence Hypothesis:a New Approach[J]. Economic Letters 64,1999:351-355.
[202]Li, Qing and Papell, David, Convergence of international output:time series evidence for 16 OECD countries[J]. International Review of economics and Finance 8,1999:267-280.
[203]Lucas, Robert. On the mechanics of economic development[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, July,1988:3-42.
[204]Michaell Funke, Holger Strulik, Growth and convergence in a two-region model of Unified Germany[J]. CESifo working paper, NO.206.1999.
[205]Michelacci, C. and P. Zaffaroni, (Fractional) beta convergence[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics 45,2000:129-153.
[206]Mora, T, Evidencing European regional convergence clubs with optimal grouping criteria[J]. Applied Economics Letters 12 (15),2005:937-940.
[207]Mora, T., Factors conditioning the formation of European regional convergence clubs[J]. Annals of Regional Science 42 (4),2008:911-927.
[208]Ortigueira, S and Santos. On the speed of convergence in endogenous growth models[J]. American Economic Reviews,87,1997:383-399.
[209]Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long-Run Relationship[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,16,2001:289-326.
[210]Persson, J., Convergence across the Swedish counties,1911-1993[J]. European Economic Review 41,1997:1835-52.
[211]Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron, Testing for a unit root in time series regression[J]. Biometrika 75, 1988:335-346.
[212]Phillips, P. C., Sul, D., Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests[J]. Econometrica 75 (6),2007:1771-1855.
[213]Pittau, M.G, and Zelli R., Empirical Evidence of Income Dynamics across EU Regions[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,21,2006:605-628.
[214]Politis, D. N., Romano, J. P. and M. Wolf, Inference for Autocorrelations in the Possible Presence of a Unit Root[J]. Journal of Time Series Analysis,25,2004:251-263.
[215]Pritchett, Lant, Divergence:Big Time[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,11 (3),1997: 3-17.
[216]Quah, D.T., Galton's fallacy and tests of the convergence hypothesis[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95,1993:427-443.
[217]Quah, D. T., Twin Peaks:growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics. [J] Economic Journal,106,1996.1045-1055:161-173.
[218]Quah, D. T., Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence[J]. European Economic Review, 40,1996:1353-1375.
[219]Quah, D. T., Empirics for Growth and Distribution:Stratification, Polarization and Convergence Clubs[J], Journal of Economic Growth,2,1997:27-59.
[220]Raftery, A., Bayesian model selection for social research[J]. Sociological Methodology,25,1995: 111-163.
[221]Raftery, A. E., Approximate Bayes factors and accountingfrom model uncertainty in generalised linear models[J]. Biometrika 83,1996:251-266.
[222]Raftery, A., D. Madigan and J. Hoeting, Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,92 (437),1997:179-191.
[223]Raiser, Martin, Subsidising Inequality:Economic Reforms, Fiscal Transfers and Convergence across Chinese Provinces[J]. The Journal of Developments Studies, Vol.24, No.3, Feb.,1998:1-26.
[224]Saadet Kasman, A. Kasman and E. Turgutlu, Nominal and Real Convergence between the CEE Countries and the EU:A Fractional Cointegration Analysis[J]. Applied Economics,37:2005. 2487-2500.
[225]Sala-i-Marin, X., The classical approach to convergence analysis[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July),1996:1019-10136.
[226]Sala-I-Martin, X., Doppelhofer, G. and Miller, R, Determinants of long-run growth:A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach[J]. American Economic Review,94,2004: 813-835.
[227]Solow, R. M. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics 70,1956:65-94.
[228]Solow, Robert M., Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, August,39 (3),1957:312-320.
[229]S. Yao, Z. Zhang, and L. Hanmer, Growing Inequality and Poverty in China[J]. China Economic Review, Vol.15, No.2,2004:145.
[230]Temple, J. The New Growth Evidence[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,37,1999:112-156.
[231]Terrasi, M.,1999. Convergence and Divergence across Italian Regions[J]. The Annals of Regional Science 33:491-510.
[232]Tsionas, E.G, Regional Growth and Convergence:Evidence from the United States[J]. Regional Studies,34,2000:231-238.
[233]Wolff., Capital Formation and Productivity Convergence over the Long Term[J]. American Economic Review,1991:565-79.
[234]Zhang Wei, Rethinking Regional Disparity in China[J]. Economics of Planning Vol.34, No.1-2. 2001:113-138.
2 马克思.资本论(第二卷).北京人民出版社,19753.P263
3 资料来源：国家统计局关于印发《三次产业划分规定》的通知.国统字[2003]14号
1 Barro Robert J.and Sala-i-Martin Xavier. Eeonomic Growth and Convergence Across the United States[C].NBER Working PaPer,1990, No.3419
1 Barro Robert J. and Sala-i-Martin Xavier Economic Growth Section of Political Eeonomy[J].Quarterly Journalof Ecomonies,1991 (106):2407-443
2 周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计.经济研究,2009.6：40-51
1 Chenery H B,Elkington H,Sims C.A uniform a-nalysis of development pattern,harvard universitycenter for international affairs. Economic Devel-opment Report.1970
1 赵杨,刘延平.我国产业结构与就业的产业结构的关联性分析[J].经济学动态,2010.12
1 威廉·配第.配第经济著作选集[M].北京：商务印书馆,1981：19-20.
2 克拉克.经济进步的条件(第三版)[M].伦敦： 麦克米兰出版公司,1957： 22-24
1 库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长：总产值和生产结构[M].北京：商务印书馆,1985：8
2 钱纳里.发展的型式,1950-1970[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1988：31-33
1 钱纳里等.工业化与经济增长的比较研究[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989：141-144.
1 马晓河.迈过“中等收入陷阱”的需求结构演变与产业结构调整[J].宏观经济研究.2010.11,p8
1 盛昭翰,蒋德鹏著.演化经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,2002.1.p31
1 数据来源：国际劳动组织网站http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest
2 数据来源：何德功.日本就业结构变化的启示.经济参考报,2011.1.14
3 数据来源：国际劳动组织网站http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest
1 王少平.宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用[M].南开大学出版社.2003.9：132
2 Levin A, Lin C F, Chu C S.Unit root tests in panel data:Asymp-totic and finite sample properties[J]. Journal of Econometrics.2002,108(1):1-24.
3 Im K S, Pesaran M H, Shin Y.Testing for unit roots in heteroge-neous panels[J].Journal of Econometrics.2003,115(1): 53-74
4 Maddala G S, Wu S.A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple approach[J].Oxford Bulletin of Eco-nomics and Statistics.1999,61 (4):631-652.
1 王少平.宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用.南开大学出版社.2003.9.133-136
1 马薇.协整理论与应用.南开大学出版社,2004.2
1 马薇.协整理论及应用[M].南开大学出版社.2004.2：95
1 吕政,郭克莎,张其仔.论我国传统工业化道路的经验与教训.中国工业经济,2003.1
1 华尔诚.服务业发展不起来有可能成为“瓶颈”.宏观经济管理,2000.10
2 数据来源：江苏人力资源和社会保障网http://www.jshrss.gov.cn/file/service/.
3 数据来源：山东用工缺口将达20万每年力争新增就业百万人.半岛都市报.2011.2.16
1 Rodgers A.Some Aspects of industrial diversification in the United States[J]. Economic Geography,1957,33:16-30.
2 Parr.J.Specialization, diversification and regional development[J]. Professional Geography,1965,6:21-25.
3 Attaran M. Industrial diversity and economic performance in U.S. areas[J].Annals of Regional Science,1986,20:44-54.
4 Malizia E, Ke S. The influence of economic diversity on unemploy-ment and stability[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 1993,33:221-235.
5 Siegel P, Johnson T, Alwang J. Regional economic diversity and diversification[J].Growth and Change,1995,26: 261-85.
6 SchuhE, Barghout.Agricultural diversification in Asia[J].Finance and Development,1988,25:41-44.
Sykes J. Diversification of industry [J]. The Economic Journal,1950,60:697-714.
1 Jacobs J. The Economy of Cities[M]. New York and Toronto,1969.
2 Glaeser E. L., Kallal H. D., Scheinkman. H. A., Shleifer A. Growth in cities [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1992, 100:1126-1152
3 宁军明.经济结构、知识溢出与中国区域经济增长[J].当代财经,2008.4,p14-22
1 黎贵才.增长与就业的动态结构分析[M].经济科学出版社,2001.6,p156
1 Julide Yildidm, Nadir Ocal and suheyla Ozyildirim. Ineome Inequality and Economic Convergence in Turkey: A Spatial Effect Analysis [J]. Intenational Regional Review 2009.4.32 (2):221-254
2 金相郁.区域经济增长收敛的分析方法[J].数量经济技术研究,2006(3)
3 Quah, Danny. Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergenee [J]. European Economic Review,1996, Vol.4: (6):1353-1375
1 Bemard A., and S. N. Durlauf. Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Eeonometries, 1996 (71):161-173
2 Rey, S. and B. Montouri. US Regional Ineome Convergenee:A Spatial Econometric PersPective[J]. Regional Studies,1999 (33):46-56.
3 Anca Carrington. A Divided Europe? Regional Convergence and Neighborhood Spillovers Effeets[R]. KYKLOS 2003 (56):381-394.
Ying. Understanding China's Recent Growth Experience:A Spatial Eeonometric PersPective [J]. The Annuls of Regional Seience.2001 (37):613-628.
2 东部包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、山东、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、广东、海南；中部包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南；西部包括广西、贵州、云南、陕西、四川、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆。
3 由于西藏数据缺失严重,因此统计分析中未包括西藏；同时,由于重庆只有1997年以后的数据,因此将其数据加入到四川省进行分析。
4 以上资料中缺漏的数据来自于中华人民共和国国家统计局网站：http//www.states.gon.cn/。
5 计算公式来源于：胡鞍钢,邹平.社会与发展——中国社会发展地区差距研究[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社,2000。
1 Henri Theil.Economics and Information Theory [M].Rand Me Nally and Company,1967.
1 刘树成,张晓晶.中国经济持续高增长的特点和地区间经济差异的缩小[J].经济研究.2007.10.p17-31
1 刘树成,张晓晶.中国经济持续高增长的特点和地区间经济差异的缩小[J].经济研究,2007.10,pp17-31
1 Hsiao Cheng. Analysis of Panel Date[M]. Cambridge University Press,2003.
1 杨宜勇.人口老龄化背景下我国就业政策与人口政策的完善.中国金融,2008.7：45-47
1 翟振武,侯佳伟.人口素质逆淘汰：一个没有事实根据的假说.中国人口科学,2007.1
1 Castells, Manuel. Path towards the informational society:Employment structure in G-7 countries,1920-90. International Labour Review.1994,133 (1):5.
1 Mortensen, Dale. Unemployment responses to 'skill-biased' technology shocks:the role of labour market policy. Economic Journal. Vol.109(4),1999:242.
1 2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据.国家统计局网站http://www.stats.gov.cn
2 2000年全国人口普查数据.国家统计局网站http://www.stats.gov.cn
3 国家统计局.改革开放30年报告之八：农业与农村经济三十年辉煌成就
1 克拉克.经济进步的条件.麦克米兰,1940(英文版),第5章
2 这里的比较劳动生产率指部门的国民收入占总国民收入的比重与部门的劳动力在总劳动力的比重之比。引自：西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长——总产值和生产结构.商务印书馆,1985.329-334.
3 马克思恩格斯全集(第三卷)[M].北京：北京人民出版社,1995：85
4 杨小凯.经济学原理[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1998：123-149
1 Young, Allyn A. Increasing Returns and Economic Progress, Economic Journal, vol.38,1928. p527-42.
2 袁伦渠.劳动经济学(第2版)[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2007.9,p154
[1]袁伦渠.劳动经济学(第2版)[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2007.9：154
[2]杨小凯.经济学原理[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.1998：48-55
[3]高培勇.公共经济学.[M]北京：中国人民大学出版社.2001：78
[4]威廉·配第.政治算术[M].商务印书馆,1928：19-20
[5]罗伯特·J·巴罗.经济增长的决定因素：跨国经验分析[M].中国人民大学出版社,2004.9：122
[6]罗伯特·M·索洛.经济增长因素分析[M],商务印书馆,2003.3：258
[7]西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长—总产值和生产结构[M].商务印书馆,1985：329--334.
[8]钱纳里,鲁宾逊,塞尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海三联书店,1995.2：145
[9]钱纳里,塞尔昆.发展的格局1950-1970[M].中国财政经济出版社,1989.4：126
[10]克拉克.经济进步的条件.麦克米兰,1940(英文版)[M].伦敦：麦克米兰出版公司,1957.9：22-24
[11]刘怀德.不确定经济学研究.第1版[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社.2001.5：155
[12]马克思.资本论(第二卷)[M].北京：人民出版社,1975：263
[13]曼昆,经济学原理(下册)[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2001：33
[14]曹沛霖.政府与市场[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社.1998：54-60
[15]杨先明.劳动力市场运行研究[M].北京：商务印书馆,1999：269-280
[16]杨小凯.经济学原理[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.1998：67
[17]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京：商务印书馆.1988：75
[18]奥利弗·威廉姆森,资本主义经济制度[M].北京：商务印书馆.2003：63
[19]弗里德曼.胡骑等译.自由选择[M].北京：商务印书馆.1982：89
[20]史尼斯.索卡尔著.刘铁桥译.数值分类学——数值分类的原理和应用[M].北京：科学出版社.1984：54
[21]张孝德.模式经济学新探[M].北京：经济管理出版社.2002：34
[22]郭树清.模式的变革与变革的模式[M].上海：上海三联书店.1994：69
[23]鲍德威.威迪逊.邓力平译.公共部门经济学.北京：中国人民大学出版社.1997：22
[24]布坎南.穆怀明译.民主财政论——财政制度和个人选择[M].北京：商务印书馆.1993：22
[25]高培勇.公共经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2001：54
[26]弗里德曼.胡骑等译.自由选择.北京：商务印书馆.1982：87
[27]马胜杰.夏杰长.公共经济学[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社.2003：98
[28]缪勒.杨春学等译[M].公共选择理论.北京：中国社会科学出版社.1999：87
[29]曾湘泉.劳动经济学[M].上海：复旦大学出版社.2010：182
[30]菲利普·阿吉翁,彼得·霍依特.陶然等译.内生增长理论[M]北京：北京大学出版社,2004：257
[31]盛昭翰,蒋德鹏.演进经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,2002.1：31
[32]陈平.文明分岔、经济混沌和演进经济动力学[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2004：213-245
[33]陈桢.经济增长的就业效应研究：基于经济转型与结构调整视角下的分析[M].经济管理出版社.2007.6：61-67
[34]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1995：51-89
[35]汪斌.东亚工业化浪潮中的产业结构研究[M].杭州大学出版社,1997：20-25
[36]薛敬孝等.当代日本产业结构研究[M].天津人民出版社,2002：43
[37]田中景.日本经济：过去、现在、未来[M],北京：中国经济出版社,2004：125
[38]田明.中国就业的产业结构转变与城市化[M].科学出版社2008.3：122-139
[39]刘学军.制度转轨中的发展战略与就业增长[M].知识产权出版社.2009.1：20-47
[40]田成诗.中国就业的宏观经济决定机制研究[M].人民出版社.2010.11：165-190
[41]赖德胜.中国就业60年：1949-2009[M].中国劳动社会保障出版社.2010.1：212-260
[42]马薇.协整理论及应用[M].南开大学出版社.2004.2：74-135
[43]王少平.宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用[M].南开大学出版社.2003.9：168-193
[44]叶阿忠.非参数计量经济学[M].南开大学出版社.2003.7：15-19
[45]赵伟,藤田昌久,郑小平.空间经济学：理论与实证新进展[M].浙江大学出版社.2009.3.p
[46]张晓峒.Eviews使用指南与案例[M].机械工业出版社.2007.2：240,294
[47]M.P.柯莱蒙兹,D.F.韩瑞德,陆懋祖译.预测经济时间序列[M].北京大学出版社,2008.1：292
[48]戴维·N.德容,舍唐·戴夫.结构宏观计量经济学[M].上海财经大学出版社,2010.1：211
[49]巴尔塔基.面板数据计量经济分析(第4版)[M].机械工业出版社,2010.4：122-145
[50]郝尔穆特·鲁克波尔,马库斯·克莱茨希.应用时间序列计量经济学[M].机械工业出版社,2008.12：225
[51]刘树成.中国地区经济发展研究[M].中国统计出版社,1994：67
[52]杨艳琳.中国经济发展中的就业问题[M].山东人民出版社.2010.1：87
[53]国家统计局国民经济综合统计司.新中国六十年统计资料汇编[M].中国统计出版社.2010.1
[54]曾湘泉.“双转型”背景下的就业能力提升战略研究(中国就业战略报告2008-2010)[M].中国人民大学出版社2010.5：45
[55]黎贵才.增长与就业的动态结构分析——经济学理论的检视、模型建构与中国经验[M].经济科学出版社.2011.6：106-148
[56]林玳玳.产业结构与就业的产业结构的变化[J].上海劳动,1996(6)：21-22
[57]林玳玳.社会主义就业理论的突破[J].经济研究参考,1997.4(10)：34-35
[58]王爱文,莫荣.中国就业结构问题研究[J].管理世界.1995(4)：196-205
[59]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构和经济增长[J].中国工业经济.2002(5)：14-21
[60]张车伟,蔡防.就业弹性的变化趋势研究[J].中国工业经济2002(5)：22-30
[61]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题_产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路[J].经济研究,1999(7)5-23
[62]郭克莎.工业化与城市化关系的经济学分析[J].中国社会科学,2002(2)：7-16
[63]段敏敏,董炳南,丁建勋.产业结构变动方向、产业结构变动速度对就业的显著性分析[J].经济研究导刊.2009(7)：16-17
[64]蔡防,王德文,都阳.劳动力市场扭曲对区域差距的影响[J].中国社会科学,2001(2)：4-15
[65]蔡防,都阳.中国区域经济增长的收敛与趋异——对西部开发战略的启示[J].经济研究,2000(10)30-37
[66]张车伟.当前劳动力市场的结构性矛盾及其经济学分析[J].经济学动态,2008(3)：49-54
[67]谢正磊,林振山,管卫华,吴永生.全面建设小康社会下我国劳动力转移机制的动力学分析[J].经济问题探索,2005(3)：4-7
[68]魏后凯.中国制造业与X非效率探讨[J].产业经济研究,2003(4)：1-6
[69]刘强.中国经济增长的收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2001(6)：70-77
[70]蔡防,王德文,张华初.扩大内需的投资要更加重视就业导向[J].中国经贸导刊,2009(10)：6-7
[71]周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计[J].经济研究,2009(6)：40-49
[72]王庆丰.中国就业的产业结构滞后问题研究[J].华东经济管理.2009(9)：36-39
[73]王庆丰.中国就业的产业结构收敛问题研究[J].河南科学,2011(1)：108-111
[74]季丹.关于营造中国产业集群的一些思考[J].产业经济研究,2003(4)：38-44
[75]李金华.中国产业结构的演变轨迹、σ-收敛性与空间集聚格局[J].财贸研究,2006(2)：7-16
[76]江小涓,李辉.服务业与中国经济—相关性和加快增长的潜力[J].经济研究,2004(1)：4-15
[77]喻桂华,张春煌.中国的产业结构与就业问题[J].当代经济科学,2004(5)：9-13
[78]张建武,李永杰.产业结构与就业的产业结构互动关系及政策含义[J].广东经济管理学院学报,2005(1)：12-18
[79]王庆丰.我国产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究述评[J].华东经济管理,2010(10)：146-149
[80]刘仙梅.产业结构与就业结构关系研究综述[J].经济论坛,2010(4)：23
[81]徐鹏程,李冀,严汉平.中国区域经济增长收敛问题研究现状与展望：一个文献综述[J].福建论坛(人文社会科学版).2010(12)：13-16
[82]孙洋.产业发展战略与空间收敛：长三角、珠三角和环渤海区域增长的比较研究[J].南开经济研究,2009(1)：46-59
[83]伍海亮.我国产业结构与就业的产业结构非均衡发展的分析[学位论文].首都师范大学,2009：67-74
[84]张延平.区域人才结构动态适配区域产业结构升级研究[学位论文].中南大学,2011：33-38
[85]周兵,徐爱东.产业结构与就业的产业结构之间的构建机制——基于中国产业结构与就业的产业结构之间关系的实证[J].软科学,2008(7)：84-87.
[86]奉莹.中国就业结构演变及就业的产业结构发展趋势研究[学位论文].西南财经大学.2009：56-58
[87]王晓君,刘爱芝.山东省产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究[J].山东社会科学,2006(8)：129-133
[88]张祥晶.中国在业人口区域分布研究[学位论文].浙江大学.2010：35-38
[89]万继勋.建国以来劳动制度和就业的产业结构的演变[J]瞭望,1986(37)：18
[90]黄日强,邓志军.战后英国职业技术教育发展滞缓原因探析[J].河北科技师范学院学报(社会科学版),2006(2)：34-37
[91]毛锐.二战后英国国有化运动评述[J].探索与争鸣,2007(3)：6-8
[92]伞锋.日本终身雇佣制的文化与发展趋势[J].现代日本经济,1995(4)：33-38
[93]杨河清.日本战后经济与就业借鉴阴.经济与管理研究.1999(6)：25-28
[94]杨河清.论日本就业状态的变化及其影响因素[J].人口与经济.2001(6)：61-66
[95]姚裕群.西方国家的就业问题[J].经济与管理研究.1996(2)：62-64
[96]莫荣.中国就业55年的改革和发展[J].中国劳动.2004(11)：55-76
[97]马莉.结构突变在时间序列分析中的应用——基于我国GDP的实证研究[J].常州工学院学报.2010(2)：45-48
[98]王少平.单位根和协整及其结构变化的理论与应用研究[学位论文].清华大学,2002：25-33
[99]张晓进.协整变结构问题研究[学位论文].华中科技大学.2006：19-27
[100]沈惠娟.结构突变理论在中国就业的产业结构分析中的应用[J].统计与信息论坛,2010(3)：96-101
[101]朱慧明.余为政基于面板单位根检验的失业率结构突变研究[J].财经理论与实践,2006(9)：118-121
[102]张亮.受约束结构突变模型与面板单位根检验[学位论文].天津大学,2007(6)：55-58
[103]余为政.基于面板数据的计量经济模型构造及其应用[学位论文].湖南大学.2006：18-23
[104]刘军丽.我国三大产业就业结构与就业弹性的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2009(5)：92-94
[105]陈桢.产业结构与就业的产业结构关系失衡的实证分析[J].国民经济管理,2007(10)：32-37
[106]刘文,田利珍.三大经济区域的产业结构就业的产业结构比较研究[J].社会科学论坛.2009(10)：49-57
[107]李文星,袁志刚.中国就业的产业结构失衡：现状、原因与调整政策[J].当代财经.2010(3)：10-17
[108]张建升.物流业发展的地区差异及其收敛性分析[J].兰州商学院学报,2011(4)：18
[109]黄洪琳.中国就业的产业结构与产业结构的偏差及原因探讨[J].人口与经济.2008(4)：12-15
[110]刘建党.中国劳动生产率与就业的产业结构变化关系的实证分析[J].经济研究导刊.2008(14)： 13-15
[111]曾先峰,李国平.我国各地区的农业生产率与收敛_1980_2005[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008.(5)：81-92
[112]许正松,万青.相对劳动力成本对产业梯度转移的影响研究——基于劳动生产率的区域差异视角[J].经济经纬,2011(5)：22-27
[113]刘夏明,魏英琪,李国平.收敛还是发散?——中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004(7)：70-81
[114]林毅夫,董先安,殷韦.技术选择、技术扩散与经济收敛[J].财经问题研究,2004(6)：3-10
[115]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002(1)：33-41
[116]王志刚.质疑中国经济增长的条件收敛性[J].管理世界,2004(3)：25-40
[117]刘树成,张晓晶.中国经济持续高增长的特点和地区间经济差异的缩小[J].经济研究.2007(10)：17-31
[118]陈晓玲,李国平.地区经济收敛实证研究方法评述[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(8)：151-160
[119]王亮.经济增长收敛假说的存在性检验与形成机制研究[学位论文].吉林大学,2010(6)：6-13
[120]林仲豪.我国区域经济差异收敛弱化原因分析——基于要素极化式聚集的视角[J].山东社会科学,2008(8)：92-98
[121]李菁.我国制造业区域产业结构的收敛性研究[学位论文].吉林大学,2010：13-34
[122]刘键,蓝文永,徐荣华.对我国经济增长与就业增长非一致性的探讨分析[J].宏观经济研究,2000(3)：77-81
[123]何枫.投资与就业增长关系的理论探讨[J].陕西经贸学院学报,1998(5)：30-32
[124]盛仕斌.从投资与就业关系看解决失业的思路[J].中国工业经济,1998(5)：46-49
[125]龚玉泉,袁志刚.中国经济增长与就业增长的非一致性及其形成机理[J].经济学动态,2002(10)：35-40
[126]吕忠伟.中国各行业吸纳就业能力的实证研究[J].兰州学刊,2006(5)：171-174
[127]于爱晶,周凌瑶.我国政府投资与经济增长、居民收入和就业的关系[J].中央财经大学学报,2004(4)：22-28
[128]丁明智.外商直接投资的就业效应剖析[J].软科学,2005(3)：26-29
[129]万欣荣,史卫,方小军.外国直接投资的就业效应实证分析—以广东省就业市场为例[J],南开管理评论,2005(2)：100-107
[130]王燕飞,曾国平.FDI、就业结构及产业结构变迁[J].世界经济研究.2006(7)：25
[131]陈利敏.资本流动及对我国就业的影响阴.经济体制改革.2002(5)：22
[132]边文霞.中国就业规模与就业的产业结构问题实证研究[J].宁夏大学学报(人文社会科学版),2009(5)：119-127.
[133]边文霞.就业的产业结构内涵、理论与趋势分析——以北京市为例[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版).2009(5)：120-125
[134]曾湘泉,李洪坚.正确协调就业政策的五大关系[J].经济与管理研究.2009(3)：12-15
[135]曾湘泉.我国就业与失业的科学测量和实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理.2006(6)：28-35
[136]魏敏,李国平.基于区域要素极化式聚集的梯度推移粘性研究[J].财贸研究,2005(6)：1-5
[137]蔡昉,王美艳,曲玥.中国工业重新配置与劳动力流动趋势[J].中国工业经济.2009(8)：5-16
[138]蔡防.劳动力市场新特点和展望[J].中国发展观察.2010(11)：22-25
[139]杨永恒,胡鞍钢,张宁.中国人类发展的地区差距和不协调——历史视角下的“一个中国,四个世界”[J].经济学.2006(2)：803-816
[140]蒲艳萍.转型期的产业结构变动与中国就业效应[J].统计与决策,2008(7)：113-115
[141]孙蚌珠.中国工业化进程中就业的产业结构变动[J].北京师范大学学报,2005(5)：95-100
[142]吴小松,范金,胡汉辉.我国就业增长与结构变迁的影响因素：基于SDA的分析[J].经济科学,2007(1)：5-14
[143]夏杰长.我国劳动就业的产业结构与产业结构的偏差[J].中国工业经济,2000(1)：36-40
[144]夏晴,郑吉昌,姜红.论服务业发展与分工的演进[J]中国软科学.2004(10)：149-153
[145]吕政,郭克莎,张其仔.论我国传统工业化道路的经验与教训.中国工业经济,2003(1)：48-55
[146]周建安.中国产业结构升级与就业问题的灰色关联分析[J].财经理论与实践,2006(9)：94-98.
[147]孙建,周兵.产业结构与就业的产业结构相关性的SEM研究[J].统计与决策,2008(11)：109-111.
[148]魏作磊.对第三产业发展带动我国就业的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2004(3)：80-85.
[149]蔡翼飞,张车伟.地区差距的新视角：人口与产业分布不匹配研究[J].中国工业经济.2012(5)：31-43
[150]赵杨,刘延平.我国产业结构与就业的产业结构的关联性分析[J].经济学动态,2010.(12)：80-83
[151]姚裕群.论我国的就业问题与扩大就业的战略对策[J].广东社会科学.2008(2)：5-10
[152]Abramovitz M. Catching Up,Forging Ahead and Falling Behind [J]. The Journal of Econmic History,1986,(46) 2:385-406.
[153]Mark Dynarski, Steven M. Sheffrin. The behavior of unemployment duration over the cycle [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1990,72 (2):350-355.
[154]Ronald G Ehrenberg, Ronald L Oaxaca. Unemployment insurance,duration of unemployment and subsequent wage gain[J]. The American Economic Review,1976,66 (5):754-766.
[155]Anthony B. Atkinson, John Micklewright. Unemployment compensation and labor market transitions:a critictal review[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1991,29 (4):1679-1727.
[156]Kenneth Carling, Bertil Holmlund, Altirl Vejsiu. Do benefit cuts boost job findings? Swedish evidence from the 1990s [J]. Economic Journal,2001,111 (474):766-790.
[157]Bruce D. Meyer. Unemployment insurance and unemployment spoils [J]. Econometrica,1990,58 (4):757-782.
[158]Lawrence F. Katz, Bruce D. Meyer. The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment [J]. Journal of Public Economics,1990,41 (1):45-72.
[159]David Card, Phillip B. Levine. Extended benefits and duration of UI spells:evidence from New Jersey Extended Benefit Program [J]. Journal of Public Economics,2000,78 (1-2):107-138.
[160]Philip K. Robins, Robert G. Spiegelman. Reemployment bonuses in the unemployment insurance system:evidence from three field experiments [J]. Reference and Research Book News,2002,17 (2):64-86
[161]Janne Vesalainen, Jukka Vuori. Labour market interventions as predictors of re-employment, job seeking activity and psychological distress among the unemployed [J]. Journal of Occupational& Organizational Psychology,1999,72 (12):523-538
[162]Lea E.Waters, Kathleen A.Moore. Predicting self-esteem during unemployment:the effect of gender, financial deprivation, alternate roles, and social support [J]. Journal of Employment Counseling,2002,39 (12):171-190.
[163]Miles Corak. Measuring the duration of unemployment spells [J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,1996,29 (1):43-49.
[164]Nicholas M. Kiefer. Evidence on the role of education in labor turnover [J]. Journal of human resources,1985,20 (3):445-432.
[165]Hsiao Cheng. Analysis of Panel Date [M]. Cambridge University Press,2003.
[166]Aleksandra Rogut and Tomasz Tokarski. Regional diversity of employment structure and outflows from unemployment to employment in Poland [J]. International Journal of Manpowers, 2002,23 (1):62-76
[167]Syrquin.M.and H.B.Chenery.Three Decades of Industrialization[J].The world bank economic reviews,1989 (3):201-222
[168]Dan O'Donoghue, Ivan.Townshend.Diversification,Specialization,Convergence and Divergence of Sectoral Employment Structures ih the British Urban System,1991-2001,Regional Studies, Vol.39.5:2005
[169]Barro, R.J., Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, May,1999:407-443.
[170]Barro and Xavier Sala-I-Martin. Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, Vol100,1992: 223-251.
[171]Barro, R. J., Sala-i-Martin, X. Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 22 (1),1991:107-182.
[172]Aleksandra Rougut, Tomasz Tokarski. Regional diversity of empolyment structure and outflows from unemployment to employment in Poland[J]. International Journal of Manpower,23(1).2002
[173]Chow,GC. Test of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions[J], Economitrica,1960, vol.28:591-605.
[174]Perron P. Further evidence on breaking trend function in macroeconomic variables [J].Journal of Econometrics.1997 (3), vol.80:355-385.
[175]Cook, Steven. Further Results on the Detection of Changes in Persistence in Linear Time Series[J]. Applied Economics Letters,2007 (2), Vol.14:145-150
[176]Sala·i·Martin, X. X. The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis"[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July),1996.
[177]Abramowitz, M., Catching up, Forging Ahead and Falling Behind [J]. Journal of Economic History,46,1986:385-406.
[178]Acemoglu, Daron and Fabrizio Zilibotti. Productivity Differences, Quarterly [J].Journal of Economics.116 (2),2001:563-606.
[179]Azariadis, C., Drazen, A. Threshold externalities in economic development[J].Quarterly Journal of Economic Development 105 (2),1990:501-526.
[180]Bairam, E.I., McRae, S.D. Testing the Convergence Hypothesis:a New Approach[J].Economic Letters 64,1999:351-355.
[181]Baumol, Willian. Productivity growth, convergence and welfare:the long-run data show[J]. American Economic Reviews, Vol 76,1986:1072-1085.
[182]Mortensen, Dale. Unemployment responses to 'skill-biased'technology shocks:the role of labour market policy. Economic Journal. Vol.109(4),1999:242-265.
[183]Bernard, Andrew B. and Charles I. Jones. Comparing Apples to Oranges:Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries[J]. American Economic Review, December 86 (5),1996:1216-1238.
[184]Bianchi, M., Testing for Convergence:Evidence from Non-Parametric Multimodality Test [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics 12,1997:393-409.
[185]Caselli, F., G Esquivel and F. Lefort, Reopening the convergence debate:a new look at cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Growth 1 (3) 1996:363-89.
[186]Canova, F., Testing for convergence clubs in income per capita:a predictive density approach. International Economic Review 45 (1),2004:49-77.
[187]Cellini, R., Scorcu, A.. How Many Italies? What Data Show about Growth and Convergence across Italian Regions:1970-91. Rassegna dei Lavori dell'ISCO 14,1997:93-124.
[188]Ciccone, Antonio and Robert E. Hall. Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity[J]. American Economic Review, March,86 (1),1996:54-70.
[189]Durlauf, S.N., Controversy on the convergence and divergence of growth rates[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July),1996:1016-1018.
[190]Eicher, Stephen Tumovsky., Convergence in a two-sector nonscale growth model[J]. Journal of Economic growth, Dec,1999:413-428.
[191]Galor, Convergence? Inferences from theoretical models[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July) 1996:1056-1069.
[192]Getis, A., Ord, J. K., The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics[J]. Geographical Analysis 24 (3),1992:189-206.
[193]Getis, A., Griffith, D. A., Comparative spatial filtering in regression analysis[J]. Geographical Analysis 34 (2),2002:130-140.
[194]Giovanni Caggiano, Leone Leonida, international output convergence:Evidence from an Autocorrelation Function Approach[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,10,2009:97-108.
[195]Hobijn, B., Franses, P. H., Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics 15 (1),2000:59-81.
[196]Islam, N., What Have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate? [J].Journal of Economic Surveys 17,2003:309-362.
[197]Islam, N., Small Sample Performance of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators in Estimating the Growth-Convergence Equation:A Monte Carlo Study[J]. Advances in Econometrics 15,2000: 317-339.
[198]Jones, C., On the Evolution of theWorld Income Distribution[J], Journal of Economic Perspectives,11,1997:19-36.
[199]Leonida, L., Montolio, D., On the Determinants of Convergence and Divergence Processes in SpainfJ]. Investigaciones Economicas 28,2004:123-140.
[200]Azariadis, C., Drazen, A., Threshold externalities in economic development[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economic Development 105 (2),1990:501-526.
[201]Bairam, E.I., McRae, S.D., Testing the Convergence Hypothesis:a New Approach[J]. Economic Letters 64,1999:351-355.
[202]Li, Qing and Papell, David, Convergence of international output:time series evidence for 16 OECD countries[J]. International Review of economics and Finance 8,1999:267-280.
[203]Lucas, Robert. On the mechanics of economic development[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, July,1988:3-42.
[204]Michaell Funke, Holger Strulik, Growth and convergence in a two-region model of Unified Germany[J]. CESifo working paper, NO.206.1999.
[205]Michelacci, C. and P. Zaffaroni, (Fractional) beta convergence[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics 45,2000:129-153.
[206]Mora, T, Evidencing European regional convergence clubs with optimal grouping criteria[J]. Applied Economics Letters 12 (15),2005:937-940.
[207]Mora, T., Factors conditioning the formation of European regional convergence clubs[J]. Annals of Regional Science 42 (4),2008:911-927.
[208]Ortigueira, S and Santos. On the speed of convergence in endogenous growth models[J]. American Economic Reviews,87,1997:383-399.
[209]Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long-Run Relationship[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,16,2001:289-326.
[210]Persson, J., Convergence across the Swedish counties,1911-1993[J]. European Economic Review 41,1997:1835-52.
[211]Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron, Testing for a unit root in time series regression[J]. Biometrika 75, 1988:335-346.
[212]Phillips, P. C., Sul, D., Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests[J]. Econometrica 75 (6),2007:1771-1855.
[213]Pittau, M.G, and Zelli R., Empirical Evidence of Income Dynamics across EU Regions[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,21,2006:605-628.
[214]Politis, D. N., Romano, J. P. and M. Wolf, Inference for Autocorrelations in the Possible Presence of a Unit Root[J]. Journal of Time Series Analysis,25,2004:251-263.
[215]Pritchett, Lant, Divergence:Big Time[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,11 (3),1997: 3-17.
[216]Quah, D.T., Galton's fallacy and tests of the convergence hypothesis[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95,1993:427-443.
[217]Quah, D. T., Twin Peaks:growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics. [J] Economic Journal,106,1996.1045-1055:161-173.
[218]Quah, D. T., Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence[J]. European Economic Review, 40,1996:1353-1375.
[219]Quah, D. T., Empirics for Growth and Distribution:Stratification, Polarization and Convergence Clubs[J], Journal of Economic Growth,2,1997:27-59.
[220]Raftery, A., Bayesian model selection for social research[J]. Sociological Methodology,25,1995: 111-163.
[221]Raftery, A. E., Approximate Bayes factors and accountingfrom model uncertainty in generalised linear models[J]. Biometrika 83,1996:251-266.
[222]Raftery, A., D. Madigan and J. Hoeting, Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,92 (437),1997:179-191.
[223]Raiser, Martin, Subsidising Inequality:Economic Reforms, Fiscal Transfers and Convergence across Chinese Provinces[J]. The Journal of Developments Studies, Vol.24, No.3, Feb.,1998:1-26.
[224]Saadet Kasman, A. Kasman and E. Turgutlu, Nominal and Real Convergence between the CEE Countries and the EU:A Fractional Cointegration Analysis[J]. Applied Economics,37:2005. 2487-2500.
[225]Sala-i-Marin, X., The classical approach to convergence analysis[J]. The Economic Journal,106 (July),1996:1019-10136.
[226]Sala-I-Martin, X., Doppelhofer, G. and Miller, R, Determinants of long-run growth:A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach[J]. American Economic Review,94,2004: 813-835.
[227]Solow, R. M. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics 70,1956:65-94.
[228]Solow, Robert M., Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, August,39 (3),1957:312-320.
[229]S. Yao, Z. Zhang, and L. Hanmer, Growing Inequality and Poverty in China[J]. China Economic Review, Vol.15, No.2,2004:145.
[230]Temple, J. The New Growth Evidence[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,37,1999:112-156.
[231]Terrasi, M.,1999. Convergence and Divergence across Italian Regions[J]. The Annals of Regional Science 33:491-510.
[232]Tsionas, E.G, Regional Growth and Convergence:Evidence from the United States[J]. Regional Studies,34,2000:231-238.
[233]Wolff., Capital Formation and Productivity Convergence over the Long Term[J]. American Economic Review,1991:565-79.
[234]Zhang Wei, Rethinking Regional Disparity in China[J]. Economics of Planning Vol.34, No.1-2. 2001:113-138.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |