高速公路投资与区域经济增长关系研究
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摘要
中国经济的高速发展已经受到了世界经济学家的广泛关注,基础设施投资与区域经济增长的关系研究已成为一个日益重要的课题。作为基础设施之一的高速公路对区域经济增长的拉动作用也备受瞩目。由于高速公路具有投资额大、建设周期长等特点,故高速公路投资能否拉动及能在多大程度上拉动区域经济增长,将是一个不容忽视的问题。因而,系统分析评价高速公路投资与区域经济增长的关系,并进行相应的实证分析,对于合理利用高速公路投资,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。同时,也可为政府在进行高速公路投资项目时提供相应的政策建议。
本文采用规范研究与实证研究相结合、以实证研究为主的研究方法。在研究过程中,主要通过文献检索、问卷调查、现场采访、采集天津市高速公路投资建设发展公司数据等方式取得相应资料,利用Eviews软件进行了相应的统计分析及归纳总结。
本文对高速公路投资与区域经济增长的关系进行了梳理和系统地研究,并以天津市高速公路投资的数据为背景,选择生产函数模型进行了相应的实证分析。并对利用弹性系数法和回归分析法预测出的经济增长对滨海新区高速公路投资需求结果,结合滨海新区高速公路网络规划,运用AHP方法对涉及到的六条高速公路的成本效益进行了的层次分析。
本文的主要结论为:⑴高速公路投资对于拉动区域经济增长具有显著的作用,主要体现在区域经济发展、区域资源开发和区域社会发展等方面。⑵运用生产函数模型对天津市高速公路投资与区域经济增长的关系进行实证分析的结果发现,其一,1996-2005年期间,天津经济增长基本呈规模报酬不变特征。其二,考察高速公路资本产出弹性系数的时间特征发现,其在考察期内持续上升。其三,高速公路资本产出弹性具有明显的区域差异。⑶滨海新区当前的高速公路投资水平还没有达到未来滨海新区经济和社会发展的需求,在未来几年或更长的时期,应当加强滨海新区高速公路的投资和高速公路建设,以便为滨海新区的经济增长提供强有力的硬件支持。
More and more economists all over the world pay their attentions to China because of its rapidly developing economy. The research on the relationship between the investments of infrastructure and regional economy increase is becoming more and more important. As one of infrastructure the expressway’s function of promoting the regional economy is also attracting the eyes of the world. On account of the great investment and long period construction of the expressway, one problem can’t be ignored that whether or not the expressway can promote the regional economy, what degree can it promote the regional economy. So it is important in theory and in practice to systemically analyze and estimate the relationship between the expressway investment and regional economy increase, to research positively. At the same time, the research also can offer the suggestion when the government invests on the expressways.
This paper uses not only theoretic analysis but also positive research method. The author gives more priority to the empirical research method. During the research, the author gets the useful information by document searches, questionnaire investigation, face to face talk, and data collection, then uses the“Eviews”software to analyze systemically and give epagoge and summarization.
This paper clears up and analyzes systemically the relation between the investment of expressway construction and regional economy growth, chooses the Tianjin expressway investment data as the background, uses Product Function Model Matrix to analyze empirically. Using the Elastic Coefficient Method and the Stepwise Regression Analysis, the author dopes out the result of the demand for Binhai New Area expressways investment according to the economy increase, uses the AHP method to analyze the cost and effect of the involved six expressways hierarchically combined with Binhai new area expressway network planning.
The main conclusions of this paper are as following:⑴The investment of expressway construction have notable function to promote the regional economy increase, especially the regional economy, regional resource and regional social growth.⑵The author uses the Product Function Model Matrix to analyze the relationship between Tianjin investment of expressway construction and regional economy growth empirically, gets three conclusions. Firstly, during1996-2005, Tianjin economy increase has a character that the scale return ratio basically remains fixed. Secondly, As I exams the time character of expressway capital product elasticity coefficient, I find it moving up. Thirdly, the expressway capital product elasticity has distinct regional differences.⑶The current expressway construction investment in Binhai New Area can not meet the need the of economy and social growth in the future. In next several years or a more long time, in order to give Binhai New Area economy increase strong hardware support, the investment and construction of Binhai New Area expressway should be strengthened.
本文采用规范研究与实证研究相结合、以实证研究为主的研究方法。在研究过程中,主要通过文献检索、问卷调查、现场采访、采集天津市高速公路投资建设发展公司数据等方式取得相应资料,利用Eviews软件进行了相应的统计分析及归纳总结。
本文对高速公路投资与区域经济增长的关系进行了梳理和系统地研究,并以天津市高速公路投资的数据为背景,选择生产函数模型进行了相应的实证分析。并对利用弹性系数法和回归分析法预测出的经济增长对滨海新区高速公路投资需求结果,结合滨海新区高速公路网络规划,运用AHP方法对涉及到的六条高速公路的成本效益进行了的层次分析。
本文的主要结论为:⑴高速公路投资对于拉动区域经济增长具有显著的作用,主要体现在区域经济发展、区域资源开发和区域社会发展等方面。⑵运用生产函数模型对天津市高速公路投资与区域经济增长的关系进行实证分析的结果发现,其一,1996-2005年期间,天津经济增长基本呈规模报酬不变特征。其二,考察高速公路资本产出弹性系数的时间特征发现,其在考察期内持续上升。其三,高速公路资本产出弹性具有明显的区域差异。⑶滨海新区当前的高速公路投资水平还没有达到未来滨海新区经济和社会发展的需求,在未来几年或更长的时期,应当加强滨海新区高速公路的投资和高速公路建设,以便为滨海新区的经济增长提供强有力的硬件支持。
More and more economists all over the world pay their attentions to China because of its rapidly developing economy. The research on the relationship between the investments of infrastructure and regional economy increase is becoming more and more important. As one of infrastructure the expressway’s function of promoting the regional economy is also attracting the eyes of the world. On account of the great investment and long period construction of the expressway, one problem can’t be ignored that whether or not the expressway can promote the regional economy, what degree can it promote the regional economy. So it is important in theory and in practice to systemically analyze and estimate the relationship between the expressway investment and regional economy increase, to research positively. At the same time, the research also can offer the suggestion when the government invests on the expressways.
This paper uses not only theoretic analysis but also positive research method. The author gives more priority to the empirical research method. During the research, the author gets the useful information by document searches, questionnaire investigation, face to face talk, and data collection, then uses the“Eviews”software to analyze systemically and give epagoge and summarization.
This paper clears up and analyzes systemically the relation between the investment of expressway construction and regional economy growth, chooses the Tianjin expressway investment data as the background, uses Product Function Model Matrix to analyze empirically. Using the Elastic Coefficient Method and the Stepwise Regression Analysis, the author dopes out the result of the demand for Binhai New Area expressways investment according to the economy increase, uses the AHP method to analyze the cost and effect of the involved six expressways hierarchically combined with Binhai new area expressway network planning.
The main conclusions of this paper are as following:⑴The investment of expressway construction have notable function to promote the regional economy increase, especially the regional economy, regional resource and regional social growth.⑵The author uses the Product Function Model Matrix to analyze the relationship between Tianjin investment of expressway construction and regional economy growth empirically, gets three conclusions. Firstly, during1996-2005, Tianjin economy increase has a character that the scale return ratio basically remains fixed. Secondly, As I exams the time character of expressway capital product elasticity coefficient, I find it moving up. Thirdly, the expressway capital product elasticity has distinct regional differences.⑶The current expressway construction investment in Binhai New Area can not meet the need the of economy and social growth in the future. In next several years or a more long time, in order to give Binhai New Area economy increase strong hardware support, the investment and construction of Binhai New Area expressway should be strengthened.
引文
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