中国转型时期城镇贫困测度研究
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摘要
在20世纪90年代之前,中国的贫困问题基本上是一种农村现象。政府在制定相关政策时主要围绕如何消除农村贫困问题展开,贫困研究也主要是围绕农村贫困问题展开。然而,到了20世纪90年代中期,随着国有企业、社会保障制度以及城乡流动制度等改革的逐步深入,城市贫困问题日益凸现,相当多的城镇人口陷入贫困之中。基于此,本文通过构建一套科学的、具有国际可比性的、国内各地区普遍适用的贫困线计算方法和总量贫困测度方法,来准确把握我国转型时期城镇贫困的广度、深度与强度。通过贫困测度,分析我国城镇贫困的特征与原因,为城镇反贫困政策的制订提供科学依据。
识别穷人的贫困线是所有贫困分析的起点,文章第一部分探讨了绝对贫困线、相对贫困线和主观贫困线计算方法,用相应的数据测算中国城镇的贫困线,并将测算结果与各城市普遍实施的最低生活保障线进行比较。通过这些分析认为,(1)用Ravallion基本需求成本法分省逐年计算转型时期城镇绝对贫困线能够更加准确地识别贫困人口,有效消除时间和地区差异;(2)主观贫困线计算方法适合我国城镇贫困线测算,政策和研究部门应提倡使用主观贫困线计算方法,力图从心理感受的角度反映贫困人口的福利状态;(3)当前的最低生活保障线低于三种贫困线测算结果,因此,政府应适当提高最低生活保障水平,满足贫困人口的基本生活需求。
文章第二部分是总量贫困测度。文章首先系统评述了总量贫困测度方法,提出了构建一个科学、合理的贫困指数必须满足的要求,以及适合中国转型时期贫困测度的贫困指数;接着,文章分别用基于家户调查的微观数据和分组数据测算了转型时期城镇贫困发生的广度、深度和强度,以及城镇贫困变动趋势与原因。测度结果表明,在中国整个国民经济持续高速增长的经济社会转型时期,城镇贫困在广度、深度和强度方面都表现出大幅度上升的态势。城镇贫困人口不再是传统的“三无”人员,大量有劳动能力而无工作机会的人陷入贫困之中。进一步分析认为,城镇贫困问题凸现是与转型时期一系列制度改革相联系的,即价格制度、企业制度、就业制度、社会保障制度和人口流动制度等重大变革。这些变革对城镇居民在生活成本、收入、竞争和不确定性等方面产生了不同的影响。这些分析使我们认识到,经济增长是摆脱贫困的前提,但仅靠经济增长是无法自动消除贫困,特别是经济增长对消除各种结构性贫困已不再有效。经济增长的减贫作用,不仅依赖于经济自身的增长速度,还有赖于经济增长的性质,如收入分配。还要特别注意的是,正常运行中的现代市场经济,需要各种保险机制来守护。收入转移和社会保险体系的运作,能使市场分配的结果受到收入再分配的修正。因此,下一步应加大对贫困人口的社会救助力度,以及建立覆盖面更广的失业、养老和医疗等社会保险体系。政府在实施反贫困政策的过程中,是在各种约束条件下,特别是资金约束条件下,追求减贫效果的最大化。由此,文章最后讨论了在不同约束条件下,贫困测度方法与反贫困目标瞄准。从政策的角度看,贫困指数要有利于反贫困政策的实施、评估和公正,特别是对发展中国家而言,由于资源有限,要减少贫困,不同的测度方法意味着实施不同的反贫困政策。
文章第三部分是多维度贫困测度。收入是人们最基本的可行能力,知识或健康也是人们最基本的可行能力,并对人类的其它维度具有巨大的工具性价值。仅从收入维度(或其它货币尺度)刻画贫困容易遗漏贫困人口的某些关键信息,尤其是对经济社会快速发展的中国而言。因此,多维度贫困测度是对单维度贫困测度的一个必要和有益扩展。文章首先探讨了切合中国实际的多维度贫困指数,接着实际测算了中国城镇多维度贫困状况。通过对计算结果的分析发现,多维度贫困测度可以帮助政策制订者更细致地认识贫困的状态和特征,并制订出更具针对性的差异化和组合式的反贫困政策,提高反贫困政策的瞄准效率。如对收入贫困地区实施收入扶助计划,对知识贫困地区进行教育救助。
贫困测度的目的在于帮助人们识别贫困、监控贫困、引起公众注意、获取贫困特征,为反贫困政策制订提供科学依据。中国城镇贫困凸现在由计划经济体制向市场经济体制转轨、由农业经济向工业经济转型时期。因此,这种研究不仅有助于我们认识、理解和帮助城镇贫困人口,为构建和谐社会和可持续发展提供指南,还能通过对转型经济的研究,拓展国际贫困研究的视野。
Before 1990s, China’s poverty took place mainly in rural regions. As a result, the anti-poverty policy and poverty research are mainly focused on the rural poverty. However,in the middle of 1990s, with the reform of state-owned corporation, social insurance system and the rural-to-urban migrants institution, the problem of urban poverty occurred. In other words, a lot of people now live in poor situation in cities. Based on this, this paper aims to construct a scientific ,universal and comparable method for poverty line calculation and poverty measurement, so as to get to know the real situation of urban poverty during the transition period of China. By measuring poverty, it is hoped that we could analyze the characteristics and source of urban poverty, and counter-poverty policies could be put forward in a scientific way.
The poverty line to identify the poor is the basis for poverty analysis. The first section of this dissertation does research on the method of absolute poverty line, relative poverty line and subjective poverty line. We estimated the poverty line of various cities and make comparison with the minimum subsistence level. After analysis, we arrived at the following conclusions. (1) The Ravallion cost of basic needs method is preferred in calculating poverty line, for it is more precise in identifying poverty group and diminishing time and regional diversity. (2) Subjective poverty line method is suitable for urban poverty line calculation, Policy and research department should encourage the usage of this method, so as to reflect the welfare of poor people from a psychological angle. (3) The present minimum subsistence level is lower than the three methods suggested. Terefore, the government should raise the minimum subsistence level in order to satisfy the basic needs of poor people.
The second section of this dissertation is the aggregate poverty measurement. Firstly, this paper reviews the theoretical development and achievements on aggregate poverty measurement in the past century and points out how to construct suitable poverty indices for China. Secondly, this dissertation measures the extension and intensity of urban poverty using micro and grouped data separately. And we find a rising trend for both extension and intensity of urban poverty. Lots of urban people who have labor ability now fall into poverty, which is different from traditional one. We also find that the main cause of urban poverty is due to series of policies reform during economic transition, such as income inequality, unemployment, housing expenditure, education expenditure, and medical expenditure. Those reforms have great effect on urban residents in many respects, such as living cost, income, competition and uncertainty. After analysis, we realize that, economic growth is the source of relieving poverty. However, economic growth itself could not alleviate poverty automatically, especially for structural poverty. Both growth rate and income distribution have great effect on poverty alleviation. It is also noticed that market economy needs the protection of various insurance mechanism. Income transfer and social insurance system could supplement the function of market distribution. Therefore, the next step is to enlarge the aid to poor people and set up various social security systems with wider range. During the process of anti-poverty, the government maximizes the effect of poverty eliminating under various restrictions, especially fund restriction. Thus, this dissertation discusses poverty measurement method and anti-poverty target under different restrictions. In case of policy, poverty index should be in favor of implementation, evaluation and justice of anti-poverty policy. As for developing countries, with scarce resources, different measurement methods mean different anti-poverty policies.
The third section of this dissertation is multi-dimensional poverty measurement. Income, knowledge and health are the basic elements for human beings, which is meaningful to other dimensions of human being. Judging poverty from the dimension of income will miss other critical information for the poor, especially for fast developing China. Thus, multi-dimensional measurement is a necessary extension for single-dimension measurement. This dissertation firstly discusses the suitable multi-dimensional poverty index, and then it estimates the multi-dimensional poverty for urban in China. The result shows that, multi-dimensional poverty measurement is more helpful to policy makers in identifying the state and characteristics of poverty, which is the key to planning comprehensive and feasible anti-poverty policies. The possible policies include carrying out income support plan and education aid in poor regions.
The aim of poverty measurement is to help identify, monitor and arouse people’s attention for the issue of poverty, as well as providing scientific proof for anti-poverty campaign. The most severe period of urban poverty is during the economy transition from planning economy to market economy, as well as from agriculture economy to industrial economy. As a result, the research helps us to understand and provide aid to urban poor people, so as to construct a better and sustainable society. The research of a transition economy is also meaningful to enlarging the view of international poverty research.
识别穷人的贫困线是所有贫困分析的起点,文章第一部分探讨了绝对贫困线、相对贫困线和主观贫困线计算方法,用相应的数据测算中国城镇的贫困线,并将测算结果与各城市普遍实施的最低生活保障线进行比较。通过这些分析认为,(1)用Ravallion基本需求成本法分省逐年计算转型时期城镇绝对贫困线能够更加准确地识别贫困人口,有效消除时间和地区差异;(2)主观贫困线计算方法适合我国城镇贫困线测算,政策和研究部门应提倡使用主观贫困线计算方法,力图从心理感受的角度反映贫困人口的福利状态;(3)当前的最低生活保障线低于三种贫困线测算结果,因此,政府应适当提高最低生活保障水平,满足贫困人口的基本生活需求。
文章第二部分是总量贫困测度。文章首先系统评述了总量贫困测度方法,提出了构建一个科学、合理的贫困指数必须满足的要求,以及适合中国转型时期贫困测度的贫困指数;接着,文章分别用基于家户调查的微观数据和分组数据测算了转型时期城镇贫困发生的广度、深度和强度,以及城镇贫困变动趋势与原因。测度结果表明,在中国整个国民经济持续高速增长的经济社会转型时期,城镇贫困在广度、深度和强度方面都表现出大幅度上升的态势。城镇贫困人口不再是传统的“三无”人员,大量有劳动能力而无工作机会的人陷入贫困之中。进一步分析认为,城镇贫困问题凸现是与转型时期一系列制度改革相联系的,即价格制度、企业制度、就业制度、社会保障制度和人口流动制度等重大变革。这些变革对城镇居民在生活成本、收入、竞争和不确定性等方面产生了不同的影响。这些分析使我们认识到,经济增长是摆脱贫困的前提,但仅靠经济增长是无法自动消除贫困,特别是经济增长对消除各种结构性贫困已不再有效。经济增长的减贫作用,不仅依赖于经济自身的增长速度,还有赖于经济增长的性质,如收入分配。还要特别注意的是,正常运行中的现代市场经济,需要各种保险机制来守护。收入转移和社会保险体系的运作,能使市场分配的结果受到收入再分配的修正。因此,下一步应加大对贫困人口的社会救助力度,以及建立覆盖面更广的失业、养老和医疗等社会保险体系。政府在实施反贫困政策的过程中,是在各种约束条件下,特别是资金约束条件下,追求减贫效果的最大化。由此,文章最后讨论了在不同约束条件下,贫困测度方法与反贫困目标瞄准。从政策的角度看,贫困指数要有利于反贫困政策的实施、评估和公正,特别是对发展中国家而言,由于资源有限,要减少贫困,不同的测度方法意味着实施不同的反贫困政策。
文章第三部分是多维度贫困测度。收入是人们最基本的可行能力,知识或健康也是人们最基本的可行能力,并对人类的其它维度具有巨大的工具性价值。仅从收入维度(或其它货币尺度)刻画贫困容易遗漏贫困人口的某些关键信息,尤其是对经济社会快速发展的中国而言。因此,多维度贫困测度是对单维度贫困测度的一个必要和有益扩展。文章首先探讨了切合中国实际的多维度贫困指数,接着实际测算了中国城镇多维度贫困状况。通过对计算结果的分析发现,多维度贫困测度可以帮助政策制订者更细致地认识贫困的状态和特征,并制订出更具针对性的差异化和组合式的反贫困政策,提高反贫困政策的瞄准效率。如对收入贫困地区实施收入扶助计划,对知识贫困地区进行教育救助。
贫困测度的目的在于帮助人们识别贫困、监控贫困、引起公众注意、获取贫困特征,为反贫困政策制订提供科学依据。中国城镇贫困凸现在由计划经济体制向市场经济体制转轨、由农业经济向工业经济转型时期。因此,这种研究不仅有助于我们认识、理解和帮助城镇贫困人口,为构建和谐社会和可持续发展提供指南,还能通过对转型经济的研究,拓展国际贫困研究的视野。
Before 1990s, China’s poverty took place mainly in rural regions. As a result, the anti-poverty policy and poverty research are mainly focused on the rural poverty. However,in the middle of 1990s, with the reform of state-owned corporation, social insurance system and the rural-to-urban migrants institution, the problem of urban poverty occurred. In other words, a lot of people now live in poor situation in cities. Based on this, this paper aims to construct a scientific ,universal and comparable method for poverty line calculation and poverty measurement, so as to get to know the real situation of urban poverty during the transition period of China. By measuring poverty, it is hoped that we could analyze the characteristics and source of urban poverty, and counter-poverty policies could be put forward in a scientific way.
The poverty line to identify the poor is the basis for poverty analysis. The first section of this dissertation does research on the method of absolute poverty line, relative poverty line and subjective poverty line. We estimated the poverty line of various cities and make comparison with the minimum subsistence level. After analysis, we arrived at the following conclusions. (1) The Ravallion cost of basic needs method is preferred in calculating poverty line, for it is more precise in identifying poverty group and diminishing time and regional diversity. (2) Subjective poverty line method is suitable for urban poverty line calculation, Policy and research department should encourage the usage of this method, so as to reflect the welfare of poor people from a psychological angle. (3) The present minimum subsistence level is lower than the three methods suggested. Terefore, the government should raise the minimum subsistence level in order to satisfy the basic needs of poor people.
The second section of this dissertation is the aggregate poverty measurement. Firstly, this paper reviews the theoretical development and achievements on aggregate poverty measurement in the past century and points out how to construct suitable poverty indices for China. Secondly, this dissertation measures the extension and intensity of urban poverty using micro and grouped data separately. And we find a rising trend for both extension and intensity of urban poverty. Lots of urban people who have labor ability now fall into poverty, which is different from traditional one. We also find that the main cause of urban poverty is due to series of policies reform during economic transition, such as income inequality, unemployment, housing expenditure, education expenditure, and medical expenditure. Those reforms have great effect on urban residents in many respects, such as living cost, income, competition and uncertainty. After analysis, we realize that, economic growth is the source of relieving poverty. However, economic growth itself could not alleviate poverty automatically, especially for structural poverty. Both growth rate and income distribution have great effect on poverty alleviation. It is also noticed that market economy needs the protection of various insurance mechanism. Income transfer and social insurance system could supplement the function of market distribution. Therefore, the next step is to enlarge the aid to poor people and set up various social security systems with wider range. During the process of anti-poverty, the government maximizes the effect of poverty eliminating under various restrictions, especially fund restriction. Thus, this dissertation discusses poverty measurement method and anti-poverty target under different restrictions. In case of policy, poverty index should be in favor of implementation, evaluation and justice of anti-poverty policy. As for developing countries, with scarce resources, different measurement methods mean different anti-poverty policies.
The third section of this dissertation is multi-dimensional poverty measurement. Income, knowledge and health are the basic elements for human beings, which is meaningful to other dimensions of human being. Judging poverty from the dimension of income will miss other critical information for the poor, especially for fast developing China. Thus, multi-dimensional measurement is a necessary extension for single-dimension measurement. This dissertation firstly discusses the suitable multi-dimensional poverty index, and then it estimates the multi-dimensional poverty for urban in China. The result shows that, multi-dimensional poverty measurement is more helpful to policy makers in identifying the state and characteristics of poverty, which is the key to planning comprehensive and feasible anti-poverty policies. The possible policies include carrying out income support plan and education aid in poor regions.
The aim of poverty measurement is to help identify, monitor and arouse people’s attention for the issue of poverty, as well as providing scientific proof for anti-poverty campaign. The most severe period of urban poverty is during the economy transition from planning economy to market economy, as well as from agriculture economy to industrial economy. As a result, the research helps us to understand and provide aid to urban poor people, so as to construct a better and sustainable society. The research of a transition economy is also meaningful to enlarging the view of international poverty research.
引文
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