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连续型交通分配模型及其在交通规划中的应用
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摘要
交通流分配模型和算法是交通规划的基础理论,分为连续型分配模型和离散型分配模型。本文根据连续型交通流分配模型适用于初始阶段和大范围规划的特点,在研究连续型交通流平衡模型的基础上,将其应用于道路选线、中央商务区(central business district, CBD)选址以及轨道交通规划等问题的分析,旨在规划更为合理的城市交通布局,避免交通需求与交通供给之间的矛盾,进而避免和减少交通拥堵的发生。本文的主要工作与创新点为:
     1在研究跟驰状态中的车辆行驶时发现,前后两车间距和前车速度都会对后随车的行驶产生影响,尤其是当前车速度低于后车速度时影响较为明显。根据上述车辆行驶特性,结合我国城市中车辆行驶的最大限制速度,提出基于最大车速的广义力跟驰模型。将该模型用于模拟车辆经过信号交叉口的动态运动,并采用实际道路上车辆的跟车数据仿真跟车状态。结果表明,该模型不仅消除了以往模型存在的停车间距过大问题,而且仿真效果更接近实际的交通流特性。
     2从交通规划及结构优化的角度出发,将交通流平衡分配模型与结构优化算法相结合,提出用户优化模型及其用户优化算法进行道路选线。在城市区域中,通过连续交通流平衡分配模型,描述通勤者的出行行为;采用渐进结构优化算法(evolutionary structural optimization, ESO)逐渐删除城市结构中流量水平较低的部分,并不断地更新剩余区域的流量水平,最终找到城市区域内流量密度最集中且均匀分布的地区,并将其作为初始设计阶段城市主干道的位置,采用数值实验和交通特征评价方法,证明了模型和算法的有效性。
     3在现实城市交通系统中,用户可通过区域道路就近直接进入CBD,或先进入快速道路入口,然后通过快速路网到达目的CBD。根据这一行为特点,将用户到达CBD的总旅行费用分为连续区域道路旅行费用和快速路网旅行费用两部分,提出用户平衡的连续型交通分配模型。在数值实验中,仿真了城市增加CBD,整个区域内交通流密度分布的变化,及CBD上的用户量变化情况。将该模型用于分析西安市新建CBD——经开区的定位与建设,对于整个西安市特别是原钟楼地区CBD交通流的影响,定量地分析了新CBD对原CBD及其周边区域的分流作用。
     4在公共交通方式中,公路交通的出行时间不仅会受到地面道路拥挤程度的影响,而且会受到车速和停靠站点上、下车乘客数的影响。与之相比,轨道交通则具有快捷和准时的特点。因此,不同交通方式下的用户会对同一目的地产生出行费用的感知偏差。根据这一情况,本文在快速路网旅行费用中加入感知偏差项,提出考虑感知偏差的交通流平衡分配模型,用以分析不同交通方式对交通流分布的影响。采用该模型分析了香港九广铁路西铁线的建成,使元朗地区人口数增长了4.5%。
Traffic assignment model and its algorithm are a fundamental theory of transport planning. In modeling traffic equilibrium problems for a transportation system, two different approaches, the discrete and the continuum modeling approach, are commonly adopted. The continuum modeling approach is mainly used for initial planning and macroscopic studies. This thesis aims to develop the continuum modeling approach for transport planning in order to avoid traffic congestion. The thesis focuses on the applications in road alignment, CBD location and rail transport. The main works are as follows:
     1 Cars following states are studied, it is shown that velocity of following car depends on the following distance of the preceding car and velocity of preceding car. When the preceding car is slower than the following car, the effect is more obvious. Based on the characters, a new generalized force model which is based on the maximal velocity is proposed. The model is used to simulate the state which the cars pass the signalized intersection and the cars following state. The simulation results show that the new model can eliminate the large distance between cars on the red light and has better features than former model.
     2 Traffic equilibrium and topology optimization are imported to route planning problem. A user-optimal model and algorithm for initial route planning are proposed based on transport planning and structural optimization theory. Continuum traffic equilibrium model is used to describe the commuters' behavior flexibly. Evolutionary structural optimization (ESO) is used to delete the low flow intensity parts step by step, update the flow intensity of remainder and get the parts in which flow intensity level is uniform and concentrated finally. Then the initial location of future artery is found. A numerical example and an appraisement method based on traffic performance are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
     3 In realistic traffic network, travelers can either travel directly to the CBD on the continuum (surface streets), or they can travel on the continuum and then exchange at an interchange (ramp) before moving to the CBD in the fast road network. According to this character, the total cost from a demand point to CBD includes travel cost of surface streets and travel cost of fast road network. A continuous model is proposed further. A numerical example is given to simulate changes in the traffic flow intensity and the users' number on CBD after adding a CBD in the city. The model is used to analyse the case of Xi'an quantificationally. When a new CBD is built in Jingkai Area, how the traffic flow in Bell Tower Area will change.
     4 Road traffic time is affected by vehicle's velocity, boarding and debarking people number, and road congestion. On the contrary, rail transport mode is clocklike and rapid. So users who choose different traffic mode will perceive different traffic time. According to this character, a perceived bias is added into the travel cost of fast road network and a traffic equilibrium assignment model based on perceived bias is proposed. The model is used to study how the traffic mode affects the traffic flow distribution. The case of West Rail Line in Hong Kong is analysed the model.
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