输气管道系统RBI定量风险评价研究
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摘要
长输管道输送天然气是最安全、最经济的运输方式。但由于天然气的易燃、易爆特点,一旦发生事故,将导致火灾及爆炸等恶性后果及恶劣的社会影响。因此,输气管道系统的风险管理引起了各方面的重视,发展和完善这些技术刻不容缓。
基于风险的检测(RBI)是西方发达国家近三十年来兴起的一种追求安全性与经济性统一的系统管理理念与方法。基于风险的检测是管道风险管理的关键技术之一。它是以风险评价为基础,通过实施基于风险的管道检测与评价得知管道的现状,并提出最适宜的维修方案,避免出现高额的维修费用,有效地预防各种管道事故的发生。它是保证现役管道安全、经济运行的重要手段。RBI应用范围很广,但就目前的情况来说,将它完整的应用于输气管道系统的风险评价还是一个尝试。
本文首先介绍了基于风险的检测(RBI)技术的基本原理,阐述了RBI风险分析方法及RBI的实施流程。然后针对输气管道系统,对RBI定量风险评价模型进行深入系统的分析和研究,对设备修正因子F_E进行了修正,确定输气管道系统存在的破坏机理主要涉及三种失效模式,即腐蚀减薄、应力腐蚀开裂与外部腐蚀,考虑了输气管道的第三方破坏子因子,建立了输气管道系统的RBI定量风险评价模型。
在所建立的输气管道系统的RBI定量风险评价模型基础上,应用面向对象的软件设计方法研制开发了输气管道系统风险评价软件。该软件具有友好的图形交互界面,简单易用;软件系统易于扩展和维护,可以适应输气管道系统风险评价技术的不断发展。
通过对涩宁兰输气管线的调研进行了数据采集,应用输气管道系统风险评价软件对该管线进行了定量RBI风险评价,得到了各管段的风险排序结果。为管道的运行管理提供了具体的数据理论依据。
Long-distance gas pipeline is the safest and most economical mode of transportation.However,because of flammable and explosive characteristics of the nature gas,once an accident happens,which will lead to vicious consequences such as fires and explosions and adverse social impact.Therefore,the risk management of the gas pipeline system attracts the attention of various aspects,the development and perfection of these technologies admits of no delay.
Risk-based Inspection(RBI)that has been arisen and developed in western countries,in the past 30 years is a concept and method of system management which combines security and economic.Risk-based Inspection is one of the key technologies of risk management of pipelines.It is on the basis of risk assessment,through the implementation of a risk-based pipeline inspection and evaluation to get the status of pipeline,which can be raised the most appropriate maintenance programs and prevent the emergence of high maintenance costs and pipeline accidents.It is an important mean that ensure the operation of the pipeline in-service safety and economic. Application of RBI is in a wide range,but in the view of the current circumstances,it is an attempt that RBI is applied to the risk assessment of the gas pipeline systems.
In this paper,firstly,the basic tenet of RBI technology was introduced and the risk analysis methodology and the implementation process of RBI were explained.In view of the gas pipeline system,the quantitative risk evaluation model of RBI was in-depth analyzed and researched,and then the Equipment Modification Factor(F_E) was modified that ascertained the three failure models,thinning,stress corrosion cracking,external corrosion,which associated with damage mechanism in gas pipelines,furthermore the factor of third-party damage of gas pipelines was taken into account,finally the RBI quantitative risk assessment model of gas pipeline system was established.
On the basis of the RBI quantitative risk assessment model of the gas pipeline system,the risk assessment software for gas pipeline system was developed with the object-oriented method.The software system has friendly and wieldy interface that is easy to use.The software system is maintained and expanded easily.
By surveying She-Ning-Lan gas pipeline,the data were collected,then the RBI quantitative risk assessment of the gas pipeline system was done by using the software,the result of the risk ranking was carried out,which provided scientific basis for the operation and management of the pipelines.
基于风险的检测(RBI)是西方发达国家近三十年来兴起的一种追求安全性与经济性统一的系统管理理念与方法。基于风险的检测是管道风险管理的关键技术之一。它是以风险评价为基础,通过实施基于风险的管道检测与评价得知管道的现状,并提出最适宜的维修方案,避免出现高额的维修费用,有效地预防各种管道事故的发生。它是保证现役管道安全、经济运行的重要手段。RBI应用范围很广,但就目前的情况来说,将它完整的应用于输气管道系统的风险评价还是一个尝试。
本文首先介绍了基于风险的检测(RBI)技术的基本原理,阐述了RBI风险分析方法及RBI的实施流程。然后针对输气管道系统,对RBI定量风险评价模型进行深入系统的分析和研究,对设备修正因子F_E进行了修正,确定输气管道系统存在的破坏机理主要涉及三种失效模式,即腐蚀减薄、应力腐蚀开裂与外部腐蚀,考虑了输气管道的第三方破坏子因子,建立了输气管道系统的RBI定量风险评价模型。
在所建立的输气管道系统的RBI定量风险评价模型基础上,应用面向对象的软件设计方法研制开发了输气管道系统风险评价软件。该软件具有友好的图形交互界面,简单易用;软件系统易于扩展和维护,可以适应输气管道系统风险评价技术的不断发展。
通过对涩宁兰输气管线的调研进行了数据采集,应用输气管道系统风险评价软件对该管线进行了定量RBI风险评价,得到了各管段的风险排序结果。为管道的运行管理提供了具体的数据理论依据。
Long-distance gas pipeline is the safest and most economical mode of transportation.However,because of flammable and explosive characteristics of the nature gas,once an accident happens,which will lead to vicious consequences such as fires and explosions and adverse social impact.Therefore,the risk management of the gas pipeline system attracts the attention of various aspects,the development and perfection of these technologies admits of no delay.
Risk-based Inspection(RBI)that has been arisen and developed in western countries,in the past 30 years is a concept and method of system management which combines security and economic.Risk-based Inspection is one of the key technologies of risk management of pipelines.It is on the basis of risk assessment,through the implementation of a risk-based pipeline inspection and evaluation to get the status of pipeline,which can be raised the most appropriate maintenance programs and prevent the emergence of high maintenance costs and pipeline accidents.It is an important mean that ensure the operation of the pipeline in-service safety and economic. Application of RBI is in a wide range,but in the view of the current circumstances,it is an attempt that RBI is applied to the risk assessment of the gas pipeline systems.
In this paper,firstly,the basic tenet of RBI technology was introduced and the risk analysis methodology and the implementation process of RBI were explained.In view of the gas pipeline system,the quantitative risk evaluation model of RBI was in-depth analyzed and researched,and then the Equipment Modification Factor(F_E) was modified that ascertained the three failure models,thinning,stress corrosion cracking,external corrosion,which associated with damage mechanism in gas pipelines,furthermore the factor of third-party damage of gas pipelines was taken into account,finally the RBI quantitative risk assessment model of gas pipeline system was established.
On the basis of the RBI quantitative risk assessment model of the gas pipeline system,the risk assessment software for gas pipeline system was developed with the object-oriented method.The software system has friendly and wieldy interface that is easy to use.The software system is maintained and expanded easily.
By surveying She-Ning-Lan gas pipeline,the data were collected,then the RBI quantitative risk assessment of the gas pipeline system was done by using the software,the result of the risk ranking was carried out,which provided scientific basis for the operation and management of the pipelines.
引文
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[2]胡晓莉.埋地管道安全检测若干技术的研究[D].天津大学,2005.
[3]张平生.油气输送管道的风险管理与基于风险的检测[J].油气储运.1999,18(02):13-18.
[4]马志祥,梅云新.我国油气长输管道的技术现状及差距分析[J].油气储运.2004,23(03):1-4.
[5]Ahammed M.Probabilistic estimation of remaining life of a pipeline in the presence of active corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping.1998,75(4):321-329.
[6]高福庆.管道内检测技术应用及发展[J].石油规划设计.2000,11(01):40-41.
[7]Merrick E A,Anderson S A,Newberry R M,et al.RBI reduces turnaround costs for petchem,gas processing plants[J].Oil & Gas Journal.2000,98(21):68-72.
[8]Kallen M J,Van N J.Optimal maintenance decisions under imperfect inspection[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety.2005,90(2-3):177-185.
[9]姚小静.长输管道安全状况等级评定及其外防腐层非开挖检测研究[D].山东大学,2006.
[10]Lin Y C,Xie Y J,Wang X H,et al.Risk analysis of in-service pressure piping containing defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping.2004,81(1):13-20.
[11]Yuhu D,Huilin G,Jing Z,et al.Mathematical modeling of gas release through holes in pipelines[J].Chemical Engineering Journal.2003,92(1-3):237-241.
[12]Jo Y,Ahn B J.Analysis of hazard areas associated with high-pressure natural-gas pipelines[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries.2002,15(3):179-188.
[13]徐志胜,邓芸芸,姜学鹏.城市天然气管道泄漏的危害分析[J].工业安全与环保,2006,32(09):47-48.
[14]王大庆,高惠临,霍春勇等.天然气管道泄漏射流火焰形貌研究[J].油气储运,2006,25(02):47-49.
[15]李奇,谢守明,李俊杰.RBI技术在延迟焦化装置的应用[J].石油化工腐蚀与防护.2007,24(03):54-56.
[16]汪文锋.基于RBI方法的在用压力容器安全评估[J].石油和化工设备.2007, 10(03):13-15.
[17]梁瑞,张春燕,姜峰等.天然气管道泄漏爆炸后果评价模型对比分析[J].中国安全科学学报.2007,17(08):131-135.
[18]李国兴,柳岩.长输天然气管道的安全问题及其对策[J].油气储运.2006,25(07):52-56.
[19]杨莉.长输油气管道故障树分析的定量风险评价方法研究[D].兰州理工大学,2006.
[20]Jovanovic A.Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and process plants in Europe[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design.2003,226(2):165-182.
[21]左才.丙烯塔、丙烷塔安全评定[D].大庆石油学院,2007.
[22]郝相民,曲豫,江安河等.定量RBI技术在国内炼油装置上的成功应用[C].机械工业出版社,2005.
[23]中国石油化工股份有限公司青岛安全工程研究所,英国tischuk国际公司.设备风险检测技术实施指南[M].中国石化出版社,2005.
[24]American Petroleum Institute:Risk-Based Inspection Base Resource Document.API pub 581[S].First Edition,2000.
[25]Ameriean Petroleum Institute:Risk-based Inspeetion.API 580[S].2002
[26]李亚红.乙烯装置基于风险的检验(RBI)方法应用[D].天津大学,2007.
[27]Balkey K R,Ayyub B M,Gore B F,et al.Risk-Based Inspection Guidelines[J].Mechanical Engineering.1990,112(3):68-74.
[28]朱瑞松.应用RBI开展高压加氢裂化装置风险检验[J].压力容器.2005,22(05):45-49.
[29]王鲁荣,王伟,刘骅.基于风险检测技术在催化裂化装置风险评估中的应用[J].石油化工设备.2006,35(6):77-79.
[30]任世科,刘雪梅,侯杰.基于风险的检验(RBI)技术在兰州石化公司重油催化裂化装置的应用[J].腐蚀与防护.2006,27(11):567-570.
[31]艾志斌,陈炜,周杨等.基于风险的检验(RBI)技术在合成氨装置的应用[J].压力容器.2007,24(11):35-39.
[32]杨铁成,陈学东,程四祥等.定量RBI技术在烷基苯装置上的应用[J].压力容器.2006,123(10):41-44.
[33]姜海一,张晓熙,贾国栋等.基于风险的检验(RBI)在国内合成氨装置中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报.2007,17(11):119-123.
[34]朱建伟.多层次灰色评价法在现代石化装置风险检测中的应用[D].浙江工业大学,2005.
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