我国上市公司财务风险预警研究
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摘要
每一个企业都不可避免地面临着财务风险,随着我国市场经济的发展,企业出现破产及陷入财务困境现象的频率也越来越高,尤其是上市公司,一旦陷入财务危机将造成各方面的影响,带来比较严重的后果。因而对上市公司财务风险进行检测和预警对企业的生存和发展具有重要的作用。
目前,国内外对企业财务预警系统的研究多数只限于对某一类企业预警模型的研究,另外,只有很少的企业建立了财务预警系统,主要是缺乏理论指导。本文首先对财务风险的内涵及特征进行阐述,并论述财务风险管理的作用及必要性,在对国内外财务风险管理进行比较的基础上,深入探讨了构建我国财务预警系统的相关理论,大胆设计了该系统的组织、运行及责任机制。对该系统的分析方法从定性与定量两方面进行了研究。通过对我国企业实际情况的分析,选取比较有说服力的偿债、盈利、发展能力等指标,建立多元线性函数模型对企业财务风险进行评估和预警。通过对随机选取的实证数据进行分析,其结果表明该方法在仅利用上市公司对外公布的财务数据的前提下,具有较好的对企业财务状况和风险状况进行评价预警的能力。通过对上市公司财务预警体系的研究,旨在为企业建立跟踪、监控、预警、排警的企业财务预警系统提供理论指导。
Every enterprise faces financial risk during its production and management in the market economy .During the development of the market economy, it's more possible for Chinese enterprise to meet bankrupty and other financial puzzledom in their operation .it's more and more important to find an efficient way to manage the financial risk, especially to the public company .if the company is in financial trouble ,it might lead to serious results ,so it is important to gauge financial risk and set up warning model.
At present,the research to financial crisis-predicting system both home and abroad is mostly the research of a certain kind of enterprise crisis-predicting model. In addition, only a few enterprises establish the financial crisis-redicting system and their main problems are lacking the theoretical guide. In the first place ,the author introduces the intesions and characteristic of financial risk .and has described the function and the necessity of financial risk management .Based on the achievements of the predecessors devoted to the research of this field, this paper makes a thorough discussion on relative theories of how to establish a financial crisis-predicting system and boldly designs financial mechanics of organizing, running and responsibility system.We make a further study on the system with a method of quantitative and qualitative analysis by presenting practical example system.Based on the analysis of the real conditions of domestic companies and the con- vincing index ,The multi-variable linear function models have been esta- blished to evaluate and forecast the company financial risk .The validity of this method is proven by analyzing the company's stochastic chosen real data. The results shows the method has the favorable evaluation and fo- recast abilities of company financial status and risk degrees on condition that only the published data of company can be used.Therefore, the enterprise can avoid the damage that might be caused by the crisis.
目前,国内外对企业财务预警系统的研究多数只限于对某一类企业预警模型的研究,另外,只有很少的企业建立了财务预警系统,主要是缺乏理论指导。本文首先对财务风险的内涵及特征进行阐述,并论述财务风险管理的作用及必要性,在对国内外财务风险管理进行比较的基础上,深入探讨了构建我国财务预警系统的相关理论,大胆设计了该系统的组织、运行及责任机制。对该系统的分析方法从定性与定量两方面进行了研究。通过对我国企业实际情况的分析,选取比较有说服力的偿债、盈利、发展能力等指标,建立多元线性函数模型对企业财务风险进行评估和预警。通过对随机选取的实证数据进行分析,其结果表明该方法在仅利用上市公司对外公布的财务数据的前提下,具有较好的对企业财务状况和风险状况进行评价预警的能力。通过对上市公司财务预警体系的研究,旨在为企业建立跟踪、监控、预警、排警的企业财务预警系统提供理论指导。
Every enterprise faces financial risk during its production and management in the market economy .During the development of the market economy, it's more possible for Chinese enterprise to meet bankrupty and other financial puzzledom in their operation .it's more and more important to find an efficient way to manage the financial risk, especially to the public company .if the company is in financial trouble ,it might lead to serious results ,so it is important to gauge financial risk and set up warning model.
At present,the research to financial crisis-predicting system both home and abroad is mostly the research of a certain kind of enterprise crisis-predicting model. In addition, only a few enterprises establish the financial crisis-redicting system and their main problems are lacking the theoretical guide. In the first place ,the author introduces the intesions and characteristic of financial risk .and has described the function and the necessity of financial risk management .Based on the achievements of the predecessors devoted to the research of this field, this paper makes a thorough discussion on relative theories of how to establish a financial crisis-predicting system and boldly designs financial mechanics of organizing, running and responsibility system.We make a further study on the system with a method of quantitative and qualitative analysis by presenting practical example system.Based on the analysis of the real conditions of domestic companies and the con- vincing index ,The multi-variable linear function models have been esta- blished to evaluate and forecast the company financial risk .The validity of this method is proven by analyzing the company's stochastic chosen real data. The results shows the method has the favorable evaluation and fo- recast abilities of company financial status and risk degrees on condition that only the published data of company can be used.Therefore, the enterprise can avoid the damage that might be caused by the crisis.
引文
1 Fitzparick,p..J.A comparision of ratios of successful industrial enterprises with those of failed finns(J).Certified public accountant,1932(2):23-35
2 Beaver,.Financial Ratos as predictions of failure,supplement to journal of accounting research(J).1966(2):77-111
3 Altman,EI.Financial ratios,Discriminant analysis and prediction of corporate bankrupty,journal of finance(J).1968(9):589-609
4 Ohlson,J.A.Financial ratios and protablicistic prediction of bankrupty(J).Journal of accouting research 1980(18):109-131
5 周首华,陆正飞,汤谷良.现代财务理论前言专题(M),大连:东北财经大学出版社,2000.1
6 张玲.财务危机预测分析判别模型及其应用预测(J).数量绛济技术及研究.2000(3):32-35
7 吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究(J).经济研究.2001(6):45-47
[1]Beaver,W.H.Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure[J].Journal Of Accounting Research,1966(2):77-111
[2]Altman E.Financial Ratiaos,discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy[J].Journal of Finance,1968(Sep):589-609
[3]George L Head.Essenial of Risk Management.First Edition[M].Insurance In statute of Ameican.1994:36
[4]Willianms,CArthor Jr,MichaelL Smith,P eter C Yong.Risk Management and Insuranse.7th Edition[M].McGraw-hill,Inc,1995:13-15
[5]Bell E David,Arthor Schleifer Jr.Risk Management.First Edition[M].Course Technoogy,Inc,1995:87-89
[6]CD Daykin,TPentikainen,MPensonen Practical.Risk Theory for ac tuaries.First Edition[M].Champmam&hall,1994(3):4-36
[7]Beder,Tanyasyblo.VaR-seductive but dangerous[J].Financial Analyst Journal,1995(5):12-24
[8]R T Rockallar,SUryasev.Optimization of Conditional Value at Risk[J].Journal of Risk.2000(2):21-41
[9]NeilD Pearson,Charles Smithson.VAR-The state of play[J].Review of F inancial Economics,2002(12):175-189
[10]David EBell.Risk,Return,and Utility[J].Management Science,1995,(1):23-30
[11]Alvin C Rencher.Method of multivariate analysis.First Edition[M].New York:J Wiley Publishing Company,1995:134-179
[12]Whitaker,R.B.The early stages of financial distress[J].Journal of Economics and Finance,1995(2):23-33.
[13]Altman E.Financial Ratios,Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy[J].Journal of Finance.1968,23(1):589-610.
[14]EdwardI.A ltman,Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy:A Complete Guide to Second Predicting & Avoiding Distress and Profiting from Edition[M],John Wiley & Sons,Inc.NewYork.1993.
[15]Tsun-Siou Lee and Ym-HuaYeh,Corporate Governance and Financial Distress[D].2002.
[16]周首华,陆正飞,汤谷良.现代财务理论前言专题[M].辽宁:东北财经大学出版社,2000
[17]张鸣,张艳,程涛.企业财务预警研究前沿[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004.
[18]程涛.财务预警模式综述[J].山西财经大学学报.2003,25(5)
[19]王玲玲,曾繁荣.财务预警模型评述[J].市场论坛.2005,21(12):109-110
[20]李春华,李建华.财务预警模型的八大研究趋势[J].财会月刊(综合).2005(8):59
[21]路杨.上市公司财务危机预警的理论与实证研究[D].山东:青岛大学,2004
[22]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究.1999(4):23-25
[23]陈晓,陈治红.企业财务困境研究的理论、方法与应用[J].投资研究.2001(6):67-68
[24]张爱民,祝春山,许丹建.上市公司财务失败的主成分预测模型及其实证研究[J].金融研究.2001(3):24-25
[25]吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究.2001(6):54-57
[26]谢芳.财务危机智能预警:指标选择与技术路线[J].财会通讯(学术版).2006(8):12-14
[27]张喜柱,秦学诗.企业财务预警系统研究[J].财务与会计.2006,27(6):75-78
[28]耿克红,李占省.上市公司财务失败预测模型的预测能力比较[J].财务与会计.2006,28(5):129-133
[29]姚靠华,蒋艳辉.静念财务预警与动念财务预警系统比较研究[J].长沙铁道学院学报(社会科学版).2005(6):12-13
[30]李莫愁.国外公司财务预警模型综述[J].理财者.2003(8):12-23
[32]赵琳.我国ST公司资本结构的实证分析[J].齐鲁论坛.2004(3):34-35
[33]张鸣,程涛.上市公司财务预警实证研究的动念视角[J].财经研究2005(1):62-71
[34]高艳青,栗甫贵.基于模糊综合评价的企业财务危机预警模型研究[J].经济问题探索.2005(1):56-87
[35]马若微.基于粗糙集与信息的上市公司财务困境预警指标的确立[J].当代经济科学.2005(3):45-50
[36]李贺,单锦雨.企业财务预警系统分析与设计[J].研究情报科学.第23卷2005(3):436-440
[37]许波.公司治理结构与盈余管理模式的互动分析[J].中央财经大学学报.2005(1):52-55
[38]朱可.不完全契约、产权残缺及企业治理结构[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版).2004(12):51-54
[39]何俊德,张年胜基于现代财务理论的财务风险预警研究[J].科技进步与对策.2004(2):30
[40]汤玲,王章渊,孙涛.公司治理、资本结构与理财目标的内在关联性研究[J].经济师.2005(3):157-158
[41]陈晓,陈治鸿.我国上市公司的财务困境预测.中国会计与财务研究[J].2000(9):55-72
[42]沈能,融资结构与公司治理结构--基于一个契约理论的研究[J].财贸管理干部学院学报.2005(1):31-33
[43]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用及预测.数量技术经济2000(6):18-20
2 Beaver,.Financial Ratos as predictions of failure,supplement to journal of accounting research(J).1966(2):77-111
3 Altman,EI.Financial ratios,Discriminant analysis and prediction of corporate bankrupty,journal of finance(J).1968(9):589-609
4 Ohlson,J.A.Financial ratios and protablicistic prediction of bankrupty(J).Journal of accouting research 1980(18):109-131
5 周首华,陆正飞,汤谷良.现代财务理论前言专题(M),大连:东北财经大学出版社,2000.1
6 张玲.财务危机预测分析判别模型及其应用预测(J).数量绛济技术及研究.2000(3):32-35
7 吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究(J).经济研究.2001(6):45-47
[1]Beaver,W.H.Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure[J].Journal Of Accounting Research,1966(2):77-111
[2]Altman E.Financial Ratiaos,discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy[J].Journal of Finance,1968(Sep):589-609
[3]George L Head.Essenial of Risk Management.First Edition[M].Insurance In statute of Ameican.1994:36
[4]Willianms,CArthor Jr,MichaelL Smith,P eter C Yong.Risk Management and Insuranse.7th Edition[M].McGraw-hill,Inc,1995:13-15
[5]Bell E David,Arthor Schleifer Jr.Risk Management.First Edition[M].Course Technoogy,Inc,1995:87-89
[6]CD Daykin,TPentikainen,MPensonen Practical.Risk Theory for ac tuaries.First Edition[M].Champmam&hall,1994(3):4-36
[7]Beder,Tanyasyblo.VaR-seductive but dangerous[J].Financial Analyst Journal,1995(5):12-24
[8]R T Rockallar,SUryasev.Optimization of Conditional Value at Risk[J].Journal of Risk.2000(2):21-41
[9]NeilD Pearson,Charles Smithson.VAR-The state of play[J].Review of F inancial Economics,2002(12):175-189
[10]David EBell.Risk,Return,and Utility[J].Management Science,1995,(1):23-30
[11]Alvin C Rencher.Method of multivariate analysis.First Edition[M].New York:J Wiley Publishing Company,1995:134-179
[12]Whitaker,R.B.The early stages of financial distress[J].Journal of Economics and Finance,1995(2):23-33.
[13]Altman E.Financial Ratios,Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy[J].Journal of Finance.1968,23(1):589-610.
[14]EdwardI.A ltman,Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy:A Complete Guide to Second Predicting & Avoiding Distress and Profiting from Edition[M],John Wiley & Sons,Inc.NewYork.1993.
[15]Tsun-Siou Lee and Ym-HuaYeh,Corporate Governance and Financial Distress[D].2002.
[16]周首华,陆正飞,汤谷良.现代财务理论前言专题[M].辽宁:东北财经大学出版社,2000
[17]张鸣,张艳,程涛.企业财务预警研究前沿[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004.
[18]程涛.财务预警模式综述[J].山西财经大学学报.2003,25(5)
[19]王玲玲,曾繁荣.财务预警模型评述[J].市场论坛.2005,21(12):109-110
[20]李春华,李建华.财务预警模型的八大研究趋势[J].财会月刊(综合).2005(8):59
[21]路杨.上市公司财务危机预警的理论与实证研究[D].山东:青岛大学,2004
[22]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究.1999(4):23-25
[23]陈晓,陈治红.企业财务困境研究的理论、方法与应用[J].投资研究.2001(6):67-68
[24]张爱民,祝春山,许丹建.上市公司财务失败的主成分预测模型及其实证研究[J].金融研究.2001(3):24-25
[25]吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究.2001(6):54-57
[26]谢芳.财务危机智能预警:指标选择与技术路线[J].财会通讯(学术版).2006(8):12-14
[27]张喜柱,秦学诗.企业财务预警系统研究[J].财务与会计.2006,27(6):75-78
[28]耿克红,李占省.上市公司财务失败预测模型的预测能力比较[J].财务与会计.2006,28(5):129-133
[29]姚靠华,蒋艳辉.静念财务预警与动念财务预警系统比较研究[J].长沙铁道学院学报(社会科学版).2005(6):12-13
[30]李莫愁.国外公司财务预警模型综述[J].理财者.2003(8):12-23
[32]赵琳.我国ST公司资本结构的实证分析[J].齐鲁论坛.2004(3):34-35
[33]张鸣,程涛.上市公司财务预警实证研究的动念视角[J].财经研究2005(1):62-71
[34]高艳青,栗甫贵.基于模糊综合评价的企业财务危机预警模型研究[J].经济问题探索.2005(1):56-87
[35]马若微.基于粗糙集与信息的上市公司财务困境预警指标的确立[J].当代经济科学.2005(3):45-50
[36]李贺,单锦雨.企业财务预警系统分析与设计[J].研究情报科学.第23卷2005(3):436-440
[37]许波.公司治理结构与盈余管理模式的互动分析[J].中央财经大学学报.2005(1):52-55
[38]朱可.不完全契约、产权残缺及企业治理结构[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版).2004(12):51-54
[39]何俊德,张年胜基于现代财务理论的财务风险预警研究[J].科技进步与对策.2004(2):30
[40]汤玲,王章渊,孙涛.公司治理、资本结构与理财目标的内在关联性研究[J].经济师.2005(3):157-158
[41]陈晓,陈治鸿.我国上市公司的财务困境预测.中国会计与财务研究[J].2000(9):55-72
[42]沈能,融资结构与公司治理结构--基于一个契约理论的研究[J].财贸管理干部学院学报.2005(1):31-33
[43]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用及预测.数量技术经济2000(6):18-20