大气水汽变化与我国旱涝关系研究
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摘要
近几十年全球增暖背景下,干旱和洪水事件频发,给我国造成了严重的经济损失。一个地区的旱涝状况同该地区水汽状况有直接关系。水汽状况主要包括大气中水汽含量以及水汽输送两个方面。大气中的水汽含量叫做可降水量。本文主要利用再分析资料的可降水量、水平风速、湿度等数据研究了大气水分的变化与我国旱涝的关系。首先验证了不同纬度带四种再分析资料地面水汽压与可降水量的对应关系以及中国区域内四种再分析资料年代际变化的可靠性；然后利用ERA-40逐日、月平均水平风场以及湿度场资料,对我国整层积分的平均气流水汽输送、涡动水汽输送、总水汽输送的通量场和散度场做了气候态和年代际变化的分析；最后研究了近十三年水汽输送的异常,着重了分析2009年西南干旱的水汽输送状况,得到以下结论：
对比ERA-40、JRA-25、NCEP/DOE、NCEP/NCAR四种再分析资料地面水汽压和可降水量的关系公式可知,再分析资料可降水量数据在中纬度地区可信度较高。在中国区域内,ERA-40再分析资料可降水量数据可信度最高,可以作为探空资料的代替资料使用。分析四种再分析资料对可降水量年代际变化的描述能力发现,ERA-40可降水量的年代际变化最贴近实际,因此在做大气水分年代际变化研究时使用ERA-40可降水量数据最可靠。对我国大部分地区而言,ERA-40可降水量存在50年代末到80年代明显减少,90年代以后明显增多的年代际变化过程。在华南、西南以及西北地区,温度的变化趋势同可降水量一致,而在华北、长江中下游地区,温度的增长伴随着可降水量的减少。温度并不是可降水量变化的决定性因子。
从气候平均来看：平均气流水汽输送通量以纬向输送为主,而涡动水汽输送通量则以经向输送为主,总水汽输送通量以纬向输送为主,与平均气流水汽输送通量相似。我国北方地区为平均气流水汽辐散以及涡动水汽辐合,南方地区为平均气流水汽辐合以及涡动水汽辐散。总水汽辐合辐合的区域与平均气流水汽辐合辐散区域基本一致。
70年代末,华北地区出现反气旋式平均气流水汽输送以及向南的涡动水汽输送增加的年代际变化,对应平均气流水汽辐散和涡动水汽辐合。长江中下游地区,存在向南和向东的平均气流水汽输送增加,向东的涡动水汽输送增加的年代际变化,对应平均气流水汽辐合和涡动水汽辐散。涡动水汽通量散度的年代际变化量级与平均气流水汽通量散度的年代际变化量级相同,只是数值上略小。华北地区总水汽辐散,降水明显减少,出现非常严重的旱灾。长江中下游地区总水汽辐合,降水增加,出现非常严重的涝灾。涡动水汽通量散度对于旱涝的缓解具有积极的意义。
近十年以来夏季,东北和华北地区位于反气旋性平均气流水汽输送距平的控制下,同时这些区域还存在从大陆到海洋的东南向的涡动水汽输送距平,使得平均气流水汽辐散、涡动水汽辐合。在两者的共同作用下,总水汽辐散,对应东北和华北大旱。淮河流域存在向西的平均气流水汽输送距平以及东南向、西北向涡动水汽输送距平的交汇,平均气流水汽辐散,涡动水汽辐合,该地区的雨涝灾害,与强涡动水汽辐合有关。
2009年9-12月,我国西南地区发生了严重的干旱。秋季中纬度位势高度较常年偏高,孟加拉湾的水汽供应非常弱,干旱的成因与水汽输送减少有关。12月份我国西南地区水汽输送增加,但贝加尔湖低压较常年异常偏强,使得冷空气偏东偏北,西南地区冷暖空气不能交汇,不利于降水的发生。12月份西南干旱与我国冬季冷空气异常有关。
In the context of global warming, drought and flooding disaster frequently occured caused serious economic damage to our country. Drought-flood conditions in one area had a direct relationship with water condition in the atmospheric, which included two aspects:water vapor content and water vapor transfer. Water vapor content in the atmospheric can also be called precipitable water. Based on precipitable water, wind and humidity data from reanalysis data, the relationship between atmospheric water vapor and drought-flood in China were researched. Firstly, by means of four reanalysis data, the relationship between precipitable water and surface vapor pressure in various latitudes and the reliability of the interdecadal characteristics of the precipitable water were validated; Secondly, based on wind and moisture from daily and monthly ERA-40 reanalysis data, the climatology and interdecadal change of vertical integrated moisture flux and diversity were analyzed in mean circulation transport, eddy transport and total transport. Finally, the anomalous vapor transportation in the past thirteen years was researched, the transportation of water vapor in southwest China from September to December in 2009 was analysised specifically. The mainly conclusions were as follows:
Compared the empirical regressions between precipitable water and surface vapor pressure from the ERA-40,JRA-25, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, the precipitable water were more credible at mid-latitude regions. In China area, the ERA-40 reanalysis data of precipitable water was the most reliable, and can be used as instead of sounding data. Evaluated the reliability of the interdecadal characteristics of the precipitable water from four kinds of reanalysis data, It was founded that the interdecadal change of the precipitable water from ERA-40 was the most consistent with the fact, so it was the best choice for researching the interdecadal change of moisture content of the atmosphere. In the greater part of China, the annual average of precipitable water decreased continuing during the late 1950s to the late 1980s, but it increased since the early 1990's. In south, southwest and northwest of China, the precipitable water showed the same trend as the temperature, but different in the lower and middle Yangzi valley and north of China. For the precipitable water, temperature may not prove decisive.
From the view of climatological state, the zonal transport was dominant in mean circulation moisture transport, but in eddy moisture transport, the meridional transport was noticeable, the total moisture transport was consistent with the mean circulation moisture transport. There were mean circulation moisture divergence and eddy moisture convergence in the north of China, on the contrary, mean circulation moisture convergence and eddy moisture divergence in the south of China. The area of convergence and divergence in total moisture transport were similar with that in mean circulation moisture transport.
After the late 1970's, accompanied with mean circulation moisture divergence and eddy moisture convergence, there existed interdecadal change of anti-cyclone form of mean circulation moisture transport and remarkable southerly eddy moisture transport in North China. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, easterly and southerly mean circulation moisture transport and easterly eddy moisture transport turned up, which caused mean circulation moisture convergence and eddy moisture divergence. The moisture convergence in eddy and mean circulation moisture transport had the same magnitude, but smaller in value. In North China, the drought frequently increased because the total moisture diverged and the rainfall declined; in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the flood disaster frequently increased because the total moisture converged and the rainfall enhanced. The convergence and divergence in eddy moisture transport played an important role in alleviating drought and flood.
In recent decades, anticyclonic departure of mean circulation transport and southeasterly eddy transport appeared over north east and North China, which led to mean circulation moisture divergence, eddy moisture convergence and total moisture divergence. These were helpful to increase the intensity and frequency of drought in north east and North China. With the departure of west mean circulation transport and the convergence of eddy transport which from southeast and northwest, there were mean circulation moisture divergence and eddy moisture convergence in Haihe river basin. The notable eddy moisture convergence caused waterlogging in Haihe river basin.
Severe drought took place in south-west region of China from September to December in 2009. The higher geopotential height existed in middle latitudes and the water vapor come from the Bay of Bengal drastically reduced. Severe drought in autumn caused of the reducing of water vapor transportation. In December, there was increased water vapor transportation in southwest China, but the low pressure located in the lake Baikal developed obviously, which make cold air shifted eastward and northward, the convergence of cold and warm air and rainfall can't happen easily. The severe drought in December was largely the result of abnormal cold air.
对比ERA-40、JRA-25、NCEP/DOE、NCEP/NCAR四种再分析资料地面水汽压和可降水量的关系公式可知,再分析资料可降水量数据在中纬度地区可信度较高。在中国区域内,ERA-40再分析资料可降水量数据可信度最高,可以作为探空资料的代替资料使用。分析四种再分析资料对可降水量年代际变化的描述能力发现,ERA-40可降水量的年代际变化最贴近实际,因此在做大气水分年代际变化研究时使用ERA-40可降水量数据最可靠。对我国大部分地区而言,ERA-40可降水量存在50年代末到80年代明显减少,90年代以后明显增多的年代际变化过程。在华南、西南以及西北地区,温度的变化趋势同可降水量一致,而在华北、长江中下游地区,温度的增长伴随着可降水量的减少。温度并不是可降水量变化的决定性因子。
从气候平均来看：平均气流水汽输送通量以纬向输送为主,而涡动水汽输送通量则以经向输送为主,总水汽输送通量以纬向输送为主,与平均气流水汽输送通量相似。我国北方地区为平均气流水汽辐散以及涡动水汽辐合,南方地区为平均气流水汽辐合以及涡动水汽辐散。总水汽辐合辐合的区域与平均气流水汽辐合辐散区域基本一致。
70年代末,华北地区出现反气旋式平均气流水汽输送以及向南的涡动水汽输送增加的年代际变化,对应平均气流水汽辐散和涡动水汽辐合。长江中下游地区,存在向南和向东的平均气流水汽输送增加,向东的涡动水汽输送增加的年代际变化,对应平均气流水汽辐合和涡动水汽辐散。涡动水汽通量散度的年代际变化量级与平均气流水汽通量散度的年代际变化量级相同,只是数值上略小。华北地区总水汽辐散,降水明显减少,出现非常严重的旱灾。长江中下游地区总水汽辐合,降水增加,出现非常严重的涝灾。涡动水汽通量散度对于旱涝的缓解具有积极的意义。
近十年以来夏季,东北和华北地区位于反气旋性平均气流水汽输送距平的控制下,同时这些区域还存在从大陆到海洋的东南向的涡动水汽输送距平,使得平均气流水汽辐散、涡动水汽辐合。在两者的共同作用下,总水汽辐散,对应东北和华北大旱。淮河流域存在向西的平均气流水汽输送距平以及东南向、西北向涡动水汽输送距平的交汇,平均气流水汽辐散,涡动水汽辐合,该地区的雨涝灾害,与强涡动水汽辐合有关。
2009年9-12月,我国西南地区发生了严重的干旱。秋季中纬度位势高度较常年偏高,孟加拉湾的水汽供应非常弱,干旱的成因与水汽输送减少有关。12月份我国西南地区水汽输送增加,但贝加尔湖低压较常年异常偏强,使得冷空气偏东偏北,西南地区冷暖空气不能交汇,不利于降水的发生。12月份西南干旱与我国冬季冷空气异常有关。
In the context of global warming, drought and flooding disaster frequently occured caused serious economic damage to our country. Drought-flood conditions in one area had a direct relationship with water condition in the atmospheric, which included two aspects:water vapor content and water vapor transfer. Water vapor content in the atmospheric can also be called precipitable water. Based on precipitable water, wind and humidity data from reanalysis data, the relationship between atmospheric water vapor and drought-flood in China were researched. Firstly, by means of four reanalysis data, the relationship between precipitable water and surface vapor pressure in various latitudes and the reliability of the interdecadal characteristics of the precipitable water were validated; Secondly, based on wind and moisture from daily and monthly ERA-40 reanalysis data, the climatology and interdecadal change of vertical integrated moisture flux and diversity were analyzed in mean circulation transport, eddy transport and total transport. Finally, the anomalous vapor transportation in the past thirteen years was researched, the transportation of water vapor in southwest China from September to December in 2009 was analysised specifically. The mainly conclusions were as follows:
Compared the empirical regressions between precipitable water and surface vapor pressure from the ERA-40,JRA-25, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, the precipitable water were more credible at mid-latitude regions. In China area, the ERA-40 reanalysis data of precipitable water was the most reliable, and can be used as instead of sounding data. Evaluated the reliability of the interdecadal characteristics of the precipitable water from four kinds of reanalysis data, It was founded that the interdecadal change of the precipitable water from ERA-40 was the most consistent with the fact, so it was the best choice for researching the interdecadal change of moisture content of the atmosphere. In the greater part of China, the annual average of precipitable water decreased continuing during the late 1950s to the late 1980s, but it increased since the early 1990's. In south, southwest and northwest of China, the precipitable water showed the same trend as the temperature, but different in the lower and middle Yangzi valley and north of China. For the precipitable water, temperature may not prove decisive.
From the view of climatological state, the zonal transport was dominant in mean circulation moisture transport, but in eddy moisture transport, the meridional transport was noticeable, the total moisture transport was consistent with the mean circulation moisture transport. There were mean circulation moisture divergence and eddy moisture convergence in the north of China, on the contrary, mean circulation moisture convergence and eddy moisture divergence in the south of China. The area of convergence and divergence in total moisture transport were similar with that in mean circulation moisture transport.
After the late 1970's, accompanied with mean circulation moisture divergence and eddy moisture convergence, there existed interdecadal change of anti-cyclone form of mean circulation moisture transport and remarkable southerly eddy moisture transport in North China. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, easterly and southerly mean circulation moisture transport and easterly eddy moisture transport turned up, which caused mean circulation moisture convergence and eddy moisture divergence. The moisture convergence in eddy and mean circulation moisture transport had the same magnitude, but smaller in value. In North China, the drought frequently increased because the total moisture diverged and the rainfall declined; in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the flood disaster frequently increased because the total moisture converged and the rainfall enhanced. The convergence and divergence in eddy moisture transport played an important role in alleviating drought and flood.
In recent decades, anticyclonic departure of mean circulation transport and southeasterly eddy transport appeared over north east and North China, which led to mean circulation moisture divergence, eddy moisture convergence and total moisture divergence. These were helpful to increase the intensity and frequency of drought in north east and North China. With the departure of west mean circulation transport and the convergence of eddy transport which from southeast and northwest, there were mean circulation moisture divergence and eddy moisture convergence in Haihe river basin. The notable eddy moisture convergence caused waterlogging in Haihe river basin.
Severe drought took place in south-west region of China from September to December in 2009. The higher geopotential height existed in middle latitudes and the water vapor come from the Bay of Bengal drastically reduced. Severe drought in autumn caused of the reducing of water vapor transportation. In December, there was increased water vapor transportation in southwest China, but the low pressure located in the lake Baikal developed obviously, which make cold air shifted eastward and northward, the convergence of cold and warm air and rainfall can't happen easily. The severe drought in December was largely the result of abnormal cold air.
引文
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