一类生产商主导的供应链产量博弈模型及复杂动力学研究
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摘要
供应链系统是一个复杂动力学系统，涉及到的企业之间存在着各种复杂的关系，另外环境的多变也使研究要素不断发生改变，进而令企业的决策行为变得更加复杂化和难以预测。所以应用复杂性理论解决供应链领域的实际问题有着非常重要的理论意义与现实意义。
本文以国内外相关领域的研究成果为基础，运用管理学理论、动态经济学理论和非线性动力学等方法，从理论和实际出发，选取了生产商为主导的一类供应链，建立了多角色企业产量博弈模型、多寡头生产商产量博弈模型和复合比较产量博弈模型，并分析其复杂动力学特性，对其表现出的混沌行为进行控制与反控制。本文的主要内容及创新性结果如下：
1、根据生产商主导的供应链的特点，通过合理的假设与简化，运用动态博弈理论和非线性混沌动力学理论，构建了基于有限理性的供应链多角色企业产量博弈动力学模型和多寡头生产商产量博弈动力学模型，丰富了供应链动态建模理论。
2、运用非线性动力学理论，研究了供应链中处于不同角色的节点企业的针对需求波动进行的产量决策博弈行为，并对其二级模型和三级模型进行数值模拟，描述了各角色企业产量博弈演化规律，对生产商的产量决策的倍周期分岔和不稳定的周期轨道做了控制，并给予了相应的经济学解释。
3、对不对称信息下供应链中多寡头生产商产量博弈模型的纳什均衡点做了分析，对该模型表现出来的复杂动力学结果进行了数值仿真，讨论了系统参数对该离散混沌系统复杂性态的影响。并对博弈模型的混沌性态进行了控制。最后给出了供应链应用方面解释。
4、对构建的几种不同的产量博弈模型进行了比较分析，在此基础上构建了两种复合比较产量博弈模型，并运用多种数值模拟工具研究其稳定性。最后运用混沌反控制理论构建了一个混沌反控制器，研究了对生产商主导的供应链三角色企业产量博弈模型的反控制。
本文的模型、参数选取及复杂动力学分析都有着非常明晰的经济管理背景，结论可以为供应链系统中的各企业决策者提供较好的参考作用。
Supply chain system is a complex dynamics system that involves complicatedconnections between enterprises within it. Moreover, the volatility of its externalenvironment is condusive to the instability of elements of study, with the result thatthe decision making of the enterprises tends to become more complex and capricious.Therefore, applying complexity theory to the solution of practical problems in thefield of supply chain is of great theoretical significance and practical significance.
Based on research findings home and abroad, this dissertation studiesManufacturer-dominated supply chain. Applying theories in management science,dynamic economics, and nonlinear dynamics, this study constructs models of outputgame among multiple players, among multiple oligarch manufacturers, and compoundcomparative output game models. The complex dynamics of the models is analyzedand control and reverse control of the chaos is exercised.
The main content of this dissertation is as follows:
1. Proceeding from the features of Manufacturer-dominated supply chain andapplying theories of dynamic game and nonlinear chaotic dynamics, the dissertationconstructs dynamical models of output game among multiple players in supply chainsof bounded rationality, which enriches the dynamic modeling theory of supply chain.
2. Using theories of nonlinear dynamics, the dissertation examines the outputdecision making game between different node enterprises along the supply chainwhen faced with demand fluctuation. Numerical simulations are conducted forsecondary and tertiary models, and the evolution of output game among the differentplayers is analyzed. Control on the period-doubling bifurcation and unstable periodictrajectory of the manufacturers’ output decision making is exercised and explanationfrom the perspective of economics is made.
3. The Nash Equilibrium of the models of output game among multiple oligarchmanufacturers along the supply chain under the circumstances of informationasymmetry is studied. Numerical simulations are conducted on the results of complexdynamics exhibited in the models. The impact of system parameters on thecomplexity of the discrete chaotic system is analyzed and control is exercised on thechaos in the game models. Explanations are made from the perspective of supply chain application.
4. Based on a comparative analysis on the different output game models, thisdissertation constructs two types of compound comparative output game models andstudies their stability by using numerical simulation tools. A chaos anti-controller isconstructed by using chaos anti-control theories to study the anti-control of tripolaroutput game model in manufacturer-dominated supply chain.
The models, parameter and complex dynamics analysis in this dissertation arebased on economic management background. The conclusion offers intellectualsupport to decision makers of enterprises along the supply chain.
本文以国内外相关领域的研究成果为基础，运用管理学理论、动态经济学理论和非线性动力学等方法，从理论和实际出发，选取了生产商为主导的一类供应链，建立了多角色企业产量博弈模型、多寡头生产商产量博弈模型和复合比较产量博弈模型，并分析其复杂动力学特性，对其表现出的混沌行为进行控制与反控制。本文的主要内容及创新性结果如下：
1、根据生产商主导的供应链的特点，通过合理的假设与简化，运用动态博弈理论和非线性混沌动力学理论，构建了基于有限理性的供应链多角色企业产量博弈动力学模型和多寡头生产商产量博弈动力学模型，丰富了供应链动态建模理论。
2、运用非线性动力学理论，研究了供应链中处于不同角色的节点企业的针对需求波动进行的产量决策博弈行为，并对其二级模型和三级模型进行数值模拟，描述了各角色企业产量博弈演化规律，对生产商的产量决策的倍周期分岔和不稳定的周期轨道做了控制，并给予了相应的经济学解释。
3、对不对称信息下供应链中多寡头生产商产量博弈模型的纳什均衡点做了分析，对该模型表现出来的复杂动力学结果进行了数值仿真，讨论了系统参数对该离散混沌系统复杂性态的影响。并对博弈模型的混沌性态进行了控制。最后给出了供应链应用方面解释。
4、对构建的几种不同的产量博弈模型进行了比较分析，在此基础上构建了两种复合比较产量博弈模型，并运用多种数值模拟工具研究其稳定性。最后运用混沌反控制理论构建了一个混沌反控制器，研究了对生产商主导的供应链三角色企业产量博弈模型的反控制。
本文的模型、参数选取及复杂动力学分析都有着非常明晰的经济管理背景，结论可以为供应链系统中的各企业决策者提供较好的参考作用。
Supply chain system is a complex dynamics system that involves complicatedconnections between enterprises within it. Moreover, the volatility of its externalenvironment is condusive to the instability of elements of study, with the result thatthe decision making of the enterprises tends to become more complex and capricious.Therefore, applying complexity theory to the solution of practical problems in thefield of supply chain is of great theoretical significance and practical significance.
Based on research findings home and abroad, this dissertation studiesManufacturer-dominated supply chain. Applying theories in management science,dynamic economics, and nonlinear dynamics, this study constructs models of outputgame among multiple players, among multiple oligarch manufacturers, and compoundcomparative output game models. The complex dynamics of the models is analyzedand control and reverse control of the chaos is exercised.
The main content of this dissertation is as follows:
1. Proceeding from the features of Manufacturer-dominated supply chain andapplying theories of dynamic game and nonlinear chaotic dynamics, the dissertationconstructs dynamical models of output game among multiple players in supply chainsof bounded rationality, which enriches the dynamic modeling theory of supply chain.
2. Using theories of nonlinear dynamics, the dissertation examines the outputdecision making game between different node enterprises along the supply chainwhen faced with demand fluctuation. Numerical simulations are conducted forsecondary and tertiary models, and the evolution of output game among the differentplayers is analyzed. Control on the period-doubling bifurcation and unstable periodictrajectory of the manufacturers’ output decision making is exercised and explanationfrom the perspective of economics is made.
3. The Nash Equilibrium of the models of output game among multiple oligarchmanufacturers along the supply chain under the circumstances of informationasymmetry is studied. Numerical simulations are conducted on the results of complexdynamics exhibited in the models. The impact of system parameters on thecomplexity of the discrete chaotic system is analyzed and control is exercised on thechaos in the game models. Explanations are made from the perspective of supply chain application.
4. Based on a comparative analysis on the different output game models, thisdissertation constructs two types of compound comparative output game models andstudies their stability by using numerical simulation tools. A chaos anti-controller isconstructed by using chaos anti-control theories to study the anti-control of tripolaroutput game model in manufacturer-dominated supply chain.
The models, parameter and complex dynamics analysis in this dissertation arebased on economic management background. The conclusion offers intellectualsupport to decision makers of enterprises along the supply chain.
引文
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