基于SDG-HAZOP的系统风险定量分析研究
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摘要
石化过程工业涉及复杂的系统流程,具有变量多,危险点多的特征。对系统进行风险分析,需依照标准流程,遵照国际标准进行。采用SDG-HAZOP进行复杂系统危险推理,可以分析辨识出系统蕴含的危险后果、原因和传播通路。对分析结果进行防护层分析,可以确定系统是否达到安全要求。当未达到允许的安全标准时,所需风险的降低即所需的安全仪表系统完整性等级(SIL)可以确定。为防护层设计提供必要的依据和指导,可以更好的降低系统风险并提高安全性。最终确定危险后果的风险,并得出所需安全仪表系统的完整性等级,是我们所要实现的目标。
如何从SDG-HAZOP所得到的结果中分析出主要危险源、主要危险后果以及风险度,定量后果风险计算在具体执行中都面临同样的一些问题:如现阶段在进行后果的定量风险计算主要依靠专家人工评价,对评价人员要求较高,缺乏自动化方式,并且效率较低。
本文根据国际标准IEC-61508的指导意见,通过几种常用方法的比较,确定了利用系统模型的定量风险来确定所需安全仪表系统完整性等级。考虑到过程工业系统的特点,选择了在现有SDG-HAZOP系统危险传播通路分析推理的基础上,建立了利用计算机对事故概率以及风险数值进行计算的方法,并以此作为安全仪表系统完整性等级制定的工具。初步建立了SDG概率计算规则库,设计了SDG通路概率计算方法和树状SDG分析方法,以及相应的计算机程序实现。为便于SDG通路的存储、查询与提取,设计了相应的数据库架构。本软件模块与SDG-HAZOP软件完整结合,成为整个安全分析平台一部分。讨论了基于SDG-HAZOP的安全仪表系统完整性等级制定的流程、系统基本构成和各个功能模块的设计与实现。本文最后对现有SIL等级制定方法优缺点进行了阐述,提出了今后发展的方向。
Petrol-chemical industry has complicated process, many parameters and dangerous points. Analyzing risk of process system need follow standard procedure and international standard. By SDG-HAZOP risk inference, we can identify accident consequences, dangerous reasons and paths. By layer of protection analysis (LOPA), we can decide whether the system safe or not. If it doesn't satisfy demand of standard, risk reduction, which is safety integrity level (SIL), will be assigned. It can direct layer of protection design and provide data to support its design. Getting accident consequence risk and SIL is aim of mine.
How to get main dangerous source, accident consequence, risk level from data by SDG-HAZOP, and quantitative risk calculation in execution face the same problem: in present period, consequence quantitative risk calculation mainly depends on experts asserts, need high quality of them, lack of automation method and in low efficiency.
On the basis of IEC-61508 directive suggestion, this thesis compares several general methods and comes into a result: assignment of SIL by system model's risk. In consideration of process industrial characteristics, the thesis presents a method of computing accidental probability and risk value by computer on the basis of SDG-HAZOP systematic dangerous paths analysis and inference. It also can be a tool of assigning SIL. Preliminarily constructs a rule library of SDG probability calculation, designs methods of SDG paths probability calculating and SDG tree analysis. Related program is designed. In order to store, search and abstract data from SDG paths, related database architecture has been established. This software module can work closely with SDG-HAZOP software and become a part of Safety Analyze Platform. Make a discussion on designing and realizing process, basic structures and components of SIL assignment, which is based on SDG-HAZOP. Finally, this thesis elaborates advantage and disadvantage of method and technology used now. Put forward some advice on future development of assignment on SIL.
如何从SDG-HAZOP所得到的结果中分析出主要危险源、主要危险后果以及风险度,定量后果风险计算在具体执行中都面临同样的一些问题:如现阶段在进行后果的定量风险计算主要依靠专家人工评价,对评价人员要求较高,缺乏自动化方式,并且效率较低。
本文根据国际标准IEC-61508的指导意见,通过几种常用方法的比较,确定了利用系统模型的定量风险来确定所需安全仪表系统完整性等级。考虑到过程工业系统的特点,选择了在现有SDG-HAZOP系统危险传播通路分析推理的基础上,建立了利用计算机对事故概率以及风险数值进行计算的方法,并以此作为安全仪表系统完整性等级制定的工具。初步建立了SDG概率计算规则库,设计了SDG通路概率计算方法和树状SDG分析方法,以及相应的计算机程序实现。为便于SDG通路的存储、查询与提取,设计了相应的数据库架构。本软件模块与SDG-HAZOP软件完整结合,成为整个安全分析平台一部分。讨论了基于SDG-HAZOP的安全仪表系统完整性等级制定的流程、系统基本构成和各个功能模块的设计与实现。本文最后对现有SIL等级制定方法优缺点进行了阐述,提出了今后发展的方向。
Petrol-chemical industry has complicated process, many parameters and dangerous points. Analyzing risk of process system need follow standard procedure and international standard. By SDG-HAZOP risk inference, we can identify accident consequences, dangerous reasons and paths. By layer of protection analysis (LOPA), we can decide whether the system safe or not. If it doesn't satisfy demand of standard, risk reduction, which is safety integrity level (SIL), will be assigned. It can direct layer of protection design and provide data to support its design. Getting accident consequence risk and SIL is aim of mine.
How to get main dangerous source, accident consequence, risk level from data by SDG-HAZOP, and quantitative risk calculation in execution face the same problem: in present period, consequence quantitative risk calculation mainly depends on experts asserts, need high quality of them, lack of automation method and in low efficiency.
On the basis of IEC-61508 directive suggestion, this thesis compares several general methods and comes into a result: assignment of SIL by system model's risk. In consideration of process industrial characteristics, the thesis presents a method of computing accidental probability and risk value by computer on the basis of SDG-HAZOP systematic dangerous paths analysis and inference. It also can be a tool of assigning SIL. Preliminarily constructs a rule library of SDG probability calculation, designs methods of SDG paths probability calculating and SDG tree analysis. Related program is designed. In order to store, search and abstract data from SDG paths, related database architecture has been established. This software module can work closely with SDG-HAZOP software and become a part of Safety Analyze Platform. Make a discussion on designing and realizing process, basic structures and components of SIL assignment, which is based on SDG-HAZOP. Finally, this thesis elaborates advantage and disadvantage of method and technology used now. Put forward some advice on future development of assignment on SIL.
引文
[1]IEC61508,Functional Safety of Electrical /Electronic /Programmable Electronic Safety-Related Systems,International Electronical Commission[S].1998.
[2]丁厚成,万成略.风险评价标准值初探[J].工业安全与环保,2004,30(10):46-47
[3]张志檩.安全仪表系统漫谈[J].数字石油和化工,2007,5:2-3
[4]顾祥柏.石油化工安全分析方法及应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2001.229-252
[5]郭海涛,阳宪惠.一种安全仪表系统SIL分配的定量方法[J].化工自动化及仪表,2006,33(6):65-67
[6]丁兰蓉.聚乙烯项目安全仪表系统的设计和应用[J].石油化工自动化,2006,2(7):7-8
[7]张志刚,余齐杰.安全仪表系统的设计[J].炼油技术与工程,2005,35(5):56-58
[8]杨蓓,刘一笑.风险和可操作性研究与安全仪表安全度等级的确定[J].石油化工自动化,2006,5(1):1-3
[9]张卫华,王春利,姜春明,吴重光.过程工业安全仪表系统的等级评定[J].安全、健康和环境,2006,6(3):18-20
[10]刘宇慧,夏涛,张贝克,吴重光.基于SDG的HAZOP单元建模方法[J].计算机仿真,2004,21(12):192-193
[11]吕宁,王雄.基于SDG的加热炉HAZOP与故障诊断[J].系统仿真学报,2006,18(6):1660
[12]V Venkatasubramanian,J Zhao,S Viswanathan.Intelligent System for HAZOP Analysis of Complex Process Plants[J].Computers Chem Engng(S0098-1354).2000,24:2291-2302.
[13]S Dash,V Venkatasubramanian.Challenges in the Industrial Applications of Fault Diagnostic Systems[J].Computers Chem Engng(S0098-1354).2000,24:785-791.
[14]Maurya Mano Ram,Rengaswamy Raghunathan,Venkatasubramanian Venkat.Application of Signed Digraphs-based Analysis for Fault Diagnosis of Chemical Process Flowsheets[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence(S0952-1976).2004,17(5):501-518
[15]牟善军,姜春明,吴重光.SDG方法与过程安全分析的关系[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(10):1381-1383
[16]曹文亮,王兵树,马良玉,张冀.基于SDG推理规则和定量分析的故障诊断技术[J].热能动力工程,2005,20(6):620-622
[17]杨帆,萧德云.基于SDG的复杂系统故障传播规律分析[J].高技术通讯,2005,15(10):34-35
[18]李安峰,夏涛,张贝克,张钊谦,吴重光.化工过程SDG建模方法[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(10):1364-1368
[19]李安峰,夏涛,张贝克,张钊谦,吴重光.基于SDG的计算机辅助危险与可操作性分析[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(10):1394-1397
[20]刘震,谭良,周明天.基于全局消息传播的贝叶斯推理[J].计算机科学,2006,33(9):166-168
[21]黄建明,方娇莉,赵波.贝叶斯网络推理的研究与分析[J].人工智能及识别技术,2007,7(25):834-835
[22]李明泉.全概率公式和贝叶斯公式教学琐谈[J].武汉工程职业技术学院学报,2007,19(4):76-78
[23]赵俊阁,张琪,付钰.贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用[J].海军工程大 学学报,2007,19(6):67-70
[24]Lepar V,Shenoy P P.A Comparison of Lauritzen—Spiegelhalter,Hugin and Shenoy—Shafer Architectures for Computing Marginals of Probability Distributions[M].In G.Cooper andS.Moral,editors,UAI,1998.328-337
[25]Dagum P,Luby M.An optimal approximation algorithm for Bayesian inference[J].Artificial intelligence,1997,93:1-27
[26]Shafer G R,Shenoy P P.Local computation in hyper trees[R].Technical Report 201,School of Business,Uni,Kansas,1988
[27]吴重光.化工仿真实习指南[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1999.62-70
[28]Adam S.Markowski.exLOPA for explosion risks assessment[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials.2007,142:669-676
[29]Richard Gowland.The accidental risk assessment methodology for industries (ARAMIS)/layer of protection analysis(LOPA)methodology:A step forward towards convergent practices in risk assessment[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:307-310
[30]J.E.COCKSHOTT.PROBABILITY BOW-TIES A Transparent Risk Management Tool.Process Safety and Environmental Protection,83(B4):307-316
[31]A.A.PEKALSKI,J.F.ZEVENBERGEN,S.M.LEMKOWITZ and H.J.PASMAN.A REVIEW OF EXPLOSION PREVENTION AND PROTECTION SYSTEMS SUITABLE AS ULTIMATE LAYER OF PROTECTION IN CHEMICAL PROCESS INSTALLATIONS.Process Safety and Environmental Protection,83(B1):1-17
[32]Arthur M.Dowell.Layer of protection analysis for determining safety integrity level[J].ISA Transactions,1998,37:155-165
[33]黎华,王重华.基于RUP的UML建模方法在电子地图系统开发中的应用[J].计算机应用研究,2006,(01).
[34]刘勇,石涛,徐从富.基于的面向对象软件设计[J].计算机应用研究,2004,(11).
[35]Rational Software Corporation.Rational Unified Process[M].2000.
[36]OMG.Unified Modeling Language Specification[S].2001209.
[37]David J.Kruglinski.Visual C++6.0技术内幕[M].北京希望电子出版社,1999
[38]王珊,陈红.数据库系统原理教程[M].北京,清华大学出版社,2001
[39]夏耘,林华.面向对象测试技术的研究与应用[J].计算机应用与软件,2002,(02)
[40]陈伟,谢俊元.基于极限编程的测试分析[J].计算机应用研究,2004,(01)
[2]丁厚成,万成略.风险评价标准值初探[J].工业安全与环保,2004,30(10):46-47
[3]张志檩.安全仪表系统漫谈[J].数字石油和化工,2007,5:2-3
[4]顾祥柏.石油化工安全分析方法及应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2001.229-252
[5]郭海涛,阳宪惠.一种安全仪表系统SIL分配的定量方法[J].化工自动化及仪表,2006,33(6):65-67
[6]丁兰蓉.聚乙烯项目安全仪表系统的设计和应用[J].石油化工自动化,2006,2(7):7-8
[7]张志刚,余齐杰.安全仪表系统的设计[J].炼油技术与工程,2005,35(5):56-58
[8]杨蓓,刘一笑.风险和可操作性研究与安全仪表安全度等级的确定[J].石油化工自动化,2006,5(1):1-3
[9]张卫华,王春利,姜春明,吴重光.过程工业安全仪表系统的等级评定[J].安全、健康和环境,2006,6(3):18-20
[10]刘宇慧,夏涛,张贝克,吴重光.基于SDG的HAZOP单元建模方法[J].计算机仿真,2004,21(12):192-193
[11]吕宁,王雄.基于SDG的加热炉HAZOP与故障诊断[J].系统仿真学报,2006,18(6):1660
[12]V Venkatasubramanian,J Zhao,S Viswanathan.Intelligent System for HAZOP Analysis of Complex Process Plants[J].Computers Chem Engng(S0098-1354).2000,24:2291-2302.
[13]S Dash,V Venkatasubramanian.Challenges in the Industrial Applications of Fault Diagnostic Systems[J].Computers Chem Engng(S0098-1354).2000,24:785-791.
[14]Maurya Mano Ram,Rengaswamy Raghunathan,Venkatasubramanian Venkat.Application of Signed Digraphs-based Analysis for Fault Diagnosis of Chemical Process Flowsheets[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence(S0952-1976).2004,17(5):501-518
[15]牟善军,姜春明,吴重光.SDG方法与过程安全分析的关系[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(10):1381-1383
[16]曹文亮,王兵树,马良玉,张冀.基于SDG推理规则和定量分析的故障诊断技术[J].热能动力工程,2005,20(6):620-622
[17]杨帆,萧德云.基于SDG的复杂系统故障传播规律分析[J].高技术通讯,2005,15(10):34-35
[18]李安峰,夏涛,张贝克,张钊谦,吴重光.化工过程SDG建模方法[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(10):1364-1368
[19]李安峰,夏涛,张贝克,张钊谦,吴重光.基于SDG的计算机辅助危险与可操作性分析[J].系统仿真学报,2003,15(10):1394-1397
[20]刘震,谭良,周明天.基于全局消息传播的贝叶斯推理[J].计算机科学,2006,33(9):166-168
[21]黄建明,方娇莉,赵波.贝叶斯网络推理的研究与分析[J].人工智能及识别技术,2007,7(25):834-835
[22]李明泉.全概率公式和贝叶斯公式教学琐谈[J].武汉工程职业技术学院学报,2007,19(4):76-78
[23]赵俊阁,张琪,付钰.贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用[J].海军工程大 学学报,2007,19(6):67-70
[24]Lepar V,Shenoy P P.A Comparison of Lauritzen—Spiegelhalter,Hugin and Shenoy—Shafer Architectures for Computing Marginals of Probability Distributions[M].In G.Cooper andS.Moral,editors,UAI,1998.328-337
[25]Dagum P,Luby M.An optimal approximation algorithm for Bayesian inference[J].Artificial intelligence,1997,93:1-27
[26]Shafer G R,Shenoy P P.Local computation in hyper trees[R].Technical Report 201,School of Business,Uni,Kansas,1988
[27]吴重光.化工仿真实习指南[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1999.62-70
[28]Adam S.Markowski.exLOPA for explosion risks assessment[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials.2007,142:669-676
[29]Richard Gowland.The accidental risk assessment methodology for industries (ARAMIS)/layer of protection analysis(LOPA)methodology:A step forward towards convergent practices in risk assessment[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:307-310
[30]J.E.COCKSHOTT.PROBABILITY BOW-TIES A Transparent Risk Management Tool.Process Safety and Environmental Protection,83(B4):307-316
[31]A.A.PEKALSKI,J.F.ZEVENBERGEN,S.M.LEMKOWITZ and H.J.PASMAN.A REVIEW OF EXPLOSION PREVENTION AND PROTECTION SYSTEMS SUITABLE AS ULTIMATE LAYER OF PROTECTION IN CHEMICAL PROCESS INSTALLATIONS.Process Safety and Environmental Protection,83(B1):1-17
[32]Arthur M.Dowell.Layer of protection analysis for determining safety integrity level[J].ISA Transactions,1998,37:155-165
[33]黎华,王重华.基于RUP的UML建模方法在电子地图系统开发中的应用[J].计算机应用研究,2006,(01).
[34]刘勇,石涛,徐从富.基于的面向对象软件设计[J].计算机应用研究,2004,(11).
[35]Rational Software Corporation.Rational Unified Process[M].2000.
[36]OMG.Unified Modeling Language Specification[S].2001209.
[37]David J.Kruglinski.Visual C++6.0技术内幕[M].北京希望电子出版社,1999
[38]王珊,陈红.数据库系统原理教程[M].北京,清华大学出版社,2001
[39]夏耘,林华.面向对象测试技术的研究与应用[J].计算机应用与软件,2002,(02)
[40]陈伟,谢俊元.基于极限编程的测试分析[J].计算机应用研究,2004,(01)