基于人工神经网络的山区生态安全预测研究
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摘要
20世纪中叶以来,科学技术的飞速发展,一方面使人类社会生产力得到了巨大的发展,另一方面也使得全球人地矛盾日益尖锐,生态环境总体上呈现恶化趋势。土地荒漠化、水土流失、水资源短缺、水污染、大气污染、森林破坏和生物多样性锐减等环境问题日益突出,生态环境安全引起人类越来越多的重视,成为了人类社会普遍关注的焦点问题。
石家庄西部山区位于河北省中南部的太行山东麓,具有独特的政治、经济和区域特点,既属于典型的生态环境脆弱带,又是河北省防护林建设、农林牧综合发展的重要基地和石家庄市的天然生态屏障,在维护该地区生态平衡中处于重要地位。基于这一背景,对石家庄西部山区生态安全进行预测及调控研究,将有助于准确地、科学地选择生态建设的策略,对政府部门把握生态安全的变化并及时做出调控和治理措施,确保该区域生态安全,维持该区域自然、经济和社会的可持续发展,具有十分重要的现实意义。本文从可持续发展理论、生态系统服务功能理论、人地关系理论和生态安全预警理论出发,在PSR框架模型下建立起生态安全预测指标体系,通过层次分析法确定各指标权重,利用人工神经网络模型对各指标标准化值进行预测,然后通过生态安全度的计算及其趋势曲线的描绘预测分析石家庄西部山区未来9年生态安全状况的发展趋势,结果表明:石家庄西部山区总体生态安全状态呈现上升的发展趋势,2007～2015年该区域处于生态安全“较好”状态。生态安全度最大值将出现在2015年,为0.6940,比1996年增长74.96%,比2006年增长21.58%。但是,各年份生态安全度均小于0.8,说明该区域生态环境问题还未彻底解决,需进一步采取措施保护生态环境。最后通过情景分析法对研究区进行调控研究,并提出相应对策,以期为该区域生态环境管理和可持续发展提供理论参考和决策依据。
本研究的创新点:(1)利用人工神经网络模型对山区生态安全进行了中短期预测研究;(2)综合现有研究方法,将生态安全预测—调控有机的融为一体,并对石家庄西部山区进行案例研究。
Beginning in the mid-20th century, the rapid development of science and technology make human society productivity get tremendous development, but on the other hand the global contradiction between human and soil is becoming more sharpening. The overall ecological environment has deteriorated. The problems of desertification of the land, soil erosion, water shortages, water pollution, air pollution, deforestation and biology diversity, and other environmental issues have become increasingly prominent. The ecological environment security has aroused more and more attention and has been a general focus problem to human society. The western mountainous area in Shijiazhuang region locates on the east side of Taihang Mountains in the central and southern part of Hebei Province, which has a unique political, economic and regional characteristic. It is a typical fragile ecological environment strap, and at the same time it is the natural zoology barrier of Shijiazhuang and the important base of shelter forests construction and comprehensive development base of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry in Hebei Province. This area is at magnitude position in the maintenance of ecological balance in the region. Based on this background, the predicting and controlling study on the western mountain ecosystems in Shijiazhuang will help the government select ecological construction strategy, forecast the ecological safety regulation, carry out the ecological environment construction and ensure the area’s ecological security. The study takes on great practical significance in maintain the sustainable development of this area’s nature, economy and society.
In this paper, based on the theory of sustainable development, ecosystem services functional theory, and theory of human relations to the ecological security early warning, in the framework of PSR model, the predictors of ecological security index system is established. The indexes weight are fixed on the through AHP method and the value of standardized indicators are predicted by using artificial neural network model, and then through the calculation of the ecological safety degree and depicting trend curve of the western coteau in Shijiazhuang region in nine years, the paper indicates that the general ecological security situation of this area will present rising development trend and will stand “better”state from 2007 to 2015. The ecological safety maximum will occur in 2015, and the point is 0.6940, increasing 74.96% than 1996, increasing21.58 than 2006.
However, the ecological security degree of each year is less than 0.8. It shows that the regional eco-environment problems have not been completely resolved, and need taking further measures to protect the ecological environment. Finally, using SWOT method, the paper analyzes the research area and proposed controlling countermeasures, providing the theory and decision-making reference to the area’s ecological environment management and sustainable development.
The innovation of this study: (1) Based on the artificial neural network model, the paper studies the ecological safety prediction to mountains area the short-term forecast; (2) Integrating existing methods, combining ecological safety predicting and controlling, the paper does the case studies of the western mountains area in Shijiazhuang region.
石家庄西部山区位于河北省中南部的太行山东麓,具有独特的政治、经济和区域特点,既属于典型的生态环境脆弱带,又是河北省防护林建设、农林牧综合发展的重要基地和石家庄市的天然生态屏障,在维护该地区生态平衡中处于重要地位。基于这一背景,对石家庄西部山区生态安全进行预测及调控研究,将有助于准确地、科学地选择生态建设的策略,对政府部门把握生态安全的变化并及时做出调控和治理措施,确保该区域生态安全,维持该区域自然、经济和社会的可持续发展,具有十分重要的现实意义。本文从可持续发展理论、生态系统服务功能理论、人地关系理论和生态安全预警理论出发,在PSR框架模型下建立起生态安全预测指标体系,通过层次分析法确定各指标权重,利用人工神经网络模型对各指标标准化值进行预测,然后通过生态安全度的计算及其趋势曲线的描绘预测分析石家庄西部山区未来9年生态安全状况的发展趋势,结果表明:石家庄西部山区总体生态安全状态呈现上升的发展趋势,2007～2015年该区域处于生态安全“较好”状态。生态安全度最大值将出现在2015年,为0.6940,比1996年增长74.96%,比2006年增长21.58%。但是,各年份生态安全度均小于0.8,说明该区域生态环境问题还未彻底解决,需进一步采取措施保护生态环境。最后通过情景分析法对研究区进行调控研究,并提出相应对策,以期为该区域生态环境管理和可持续发展提供理论参考和决策依据。
本研究的创新点:(1)利用人工神经网络模型对山区生态安全进行了中短期预测研究;(2)综合现有研究方法,将生态安全预测—调控有机的融为一体,并对石家庄西部山区进行案例研究。
Beginning in the mid-20th century, the rapid development of science and technology make human society productivity get tremendous development, but on the other hand the global contradiction between human and soil is becoming more sharpening. The overall ecological environment has deteriorated. The problems of desertification of the land, soil erosion, water shortages, water pollution, air pollution, deforestation and biology diversity, and other environmental issues have become increasingly prominent. The ecological environment security has aroused more and more attention and has been a general focus problem to human society. The western mountainous area in Shijiazhuang region locates on the east side of Taihang Mountains in the central and southern part of Hebei Province, which has a unique political, economic and regional characteristic. It is a typical fragile ecological environment strap, and at the same time it is the natural zoology barrier of Shijiazhuang and the important base of shelter forests construction and comprehensive development base of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry in Hebei Province. This area is at magnitude position in the maintenance of ecological balance in the region. Based on this background, the predicting and controlling study on the western mountain ecosystems in Shijiazhuang will help the government select ecological construction strategy, forecast the ecological safety regulation, carry out the ecological environment construction and ensure the area’s ecological security. The study takes on great practical significance in maintain the sustainable development of this area’s nature, economy and society.
In this paper, based on the theory of sustainable development, ecosystem services functional theory, and theory of human relations to the ecological security early warning, in the framework of PSR model, the predictors of ecological security index system is established. The indexes weight are fixed on the through AHP method and the value of standardized indicators are predicted by using artificial neural network model, and then through the calculation of the ecological safety degree and depicting trend curve of the western coteau in Shijiazhuang region in nine years, the paper indicates that the general ecological security situation of this area will present rising development trend and will stand “better”state from 2007 to 2015. The ecological safety maximum will occur in 2015, and the point is 0.6940, increasing 74.96% than 1996, increasing21.58 than 2006.
However, the ecological security degree of each year is less than 0.8. It shows that the regional eco-environment problems have not been completely resolved, and need taking further measures to protect the ecological environment. Finally, using SWOT method, the paper analyzes the research area and proposed controlling countermeasures, providing the theory and decision-making reference to the area’s ecological environment management and sustainable development.
The innovation of this study: (1) Based on the artificial neural network model, the paper studies the ecological safety prediction to mountains area the short-term forecast; (2) Integrating existing methods, combining ecological safety predicting and controlling, the paper does the case studies of the western mountains area in Shijiazhuang region.
引文
[1]高长波,陈新庚,韦朝海等.区域生态安全:概念及评价理论基础[J].生态环境,2006,15(1):169-174.
[2]刘燕华, 李秀彬. 脆弱生态环境与可持续发展[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001:22-31.
[3]方创琳,张小雷.干旱区生态重建与经济可持续发展研究进展[J].生态学报 2001,21(7):1163-1170.
[4]邹长新, 沈渭寿.生态安全研究进展[J].农村生态环境,2003, 19(1):56-59.
[5]郝东恒,谢军安.关于构建河北省生态安全预警系统的思考[J].环境经济,2005,2:59-61.
[6]Michael E .Environmental McDonald,2000,EMAP Overview: Objectives,Approaches,and Achievement 64 Monitoring and Assessment p3-8.
[7] Elizabeth R. Smith,2000,An Overview of EPA’s Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program,Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,64,p9-15.
[8]崔胜辉,洪华生,黄云凤等.生态安全研究进展[J].生态学报,2005,25(4):862-866.
[9]王清. 山东省生态安全评价研究.山东大学.[D] 2004 .
[10]周国富.生态安全与生态安全研究 [J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,(8):105-108.
[11]顾海兵.90 年代后半期中国农业发展的监测预警与对策[M].中国计划出版社,1995.
[12]张艳芳,任志远.区域生态安全定量评价与阈值确定的方法探讨[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,3.
[13]曲格平.关注生态安全之二:影响中国生态安全的若干问题[J].环境保护,2002(7):3-5.
[14]谢小立,周敬明,刘新平.粮食安全:我国农业现代化的任务与标志[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2001,11(3):50-53.
[15]夏军,朱一中.水安全的度量:我国农业现代化的任务与标志[J].自然资源学报,2001,17(3)262-269.
[16]俞孔坚.生物保护的景观生态安全格局[J].生态学报,1999,19(1):8-15.
[17]郭中伟.建设国家生态安全维护体系[J].生态环境与保护,2000(5):60-61.
[18]任志远.生态系统服务经济价值评价的前沿问题[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2003,33(1):103-106.
[19]欧阳志云,王如松,赵景柱.生态系统服务功能及其生态经济价值评价[J].应用生态学报,1999,10,10(5):636-639.
[20]吴铭峰.基于人工免疫的城市生态系统预警模型研究[D].河海大学, 2006:6.
[21]傅伯杰.区域生态环境预警的原理与方法应用[J].生态学报,1993, 4(4):436-439.
[22]秦朝明,刘锡淮.石家庄地区国土资源[Z].河北科技出版社,1988.
[23] 石家庄市土地志编纂委员会.石家庄市土地志[Z].河北人民出版社,2001.7.
[24] 石家庄市统计局.石家庄市统计年鉴 2005 [Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2005.
[25] 邬红娟,林子扬,郭生练.人工神经网络方法在资源与环境预测方面的应用.长江流域资源与环境,2000,5(2).
[26]胡淑恒.巢湖流域的生态安全预警研究[D].合肥工业大学.2004.5.
[27] 刘红,王慧,张兴卫.生态安全评价研究述评[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(1):74-78.
[28]万本太.中国生态环境质量评价研究[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2004.
[29]左伟,周慧珍,王桥.区域生态安全评价指标体系选区的概念框架研究[J].土壤,2003 年 1 期.
[30]曹凤中.中国城市环境可持续发展指标体系手册[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2001.6.
[31]Jorgensen,SE.Integration of Ecosystem Theories:A Pattern,2.Dordrecht:Kluwer,1997,400.
[32]Rapport,DJ.EvaluatingdanddMonitoringatheaHealthaofaLarge-ScaleEcosystems.Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,1995.5-31.
[33] 刘勇.区域土地资源可持续利用的生态安全评价研究[D].南京农业大学.2004.
[34] 吕光辉.中国西部干旱区生态安全评价、预警与调控研究——以新疆地区为例[D].新疆大学.2005.
[2]刘燕华, 李秀彬. 脆弱生态环境与可持续发展[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001:22-31.
[3]方创琳,张小雷.干旱区生态重建与经济可持续发展研究进展[J].生态学报 2001,21(7):1163-1170.
[4]邹长新, 沈渭寿.生态安全研究进展[J].农村生态环境,2003, 19(1):56-59.
[5]郝东恒,谢军安.关于构建河北省生态安全预警系统的思考[J].环境经济,2005,2:59-61.
[6]Michael E .Environmental McDonald,2000,EMAP Overview: Objectives,Approaches,and Achievement 64 Monitoring and Assessment p3-8.
[7] Elizabeth R. Smith,2000,An Overview of EPA’s Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program,Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,64,p9-15.
[8]崔胜辉,洪华生,黄云凤等.生态安全研究进展[J].生态学报,2005,25(4):862-866.
[9]王清. 山东省生态安全评价研究.山东大学.[D] 2004 .
[10]周国富.生态安全与生态安全研究 [J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,(8):105-108.
[11]顾海兵.90 年代后半期中国农业发展的监测预警与对策[M].中国计划出版社,1995.
[12]张艳芳,任志远.区域生态安全定量评价与阈值确定的方法探讨[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,3.
[13]曲格平.关注生态安全之二:影响中国生态安全的若干问题[J].环境保护,2002(7):3-5.
[14]谢小立,周敬明,刘新平.粮食安全:我国农业现代化的任务与标志[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2001,11(3):50-53.
[15]夏军,朱一中.水安全的度量:我国农业现代化的任务与标志[J].自然资源学报,2001,17(3)262-269.
[16]俞孔坚.生物保护的景观生态安全格局[J].生态学报,1999,19(1):8-15.
[17]郭中伟.建设国家生态安全维护体系[J].生态环境与保护,2000(5):60-61.
[18]任志远.生态系统服务经济价值评价的前沿问题[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2003,33(1):103-106.
[19]欧阳志云,王如松,赵景柱.生态系统服务功能及其生态经济价值评价[J].应用生态学报,1999,10,10(5):636-639.
[20]吴铭峰.基于人工免疫的城市生态系统预警模型研究[D].河海大学, 2006:6.
[21]傅伯杰.区域生态环境预警的原理与方法应用[J].生态学报,1993, 4(4):436-439.
[22]秦朝明,刘锡淮.石家庄地区国土资源[Z].河北科技出版社,1988.
[23] 石家庄市土地志编纂委员会.石家庄市土地志[Z].河北人民出版社,2001.7.
[24] 石家庄市统计局.石家庄市统计年鉴 2005 [Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2005.
[25] 邬红娟,林子扬,郭生练.人工神经网络方法在资源与环境预测方面的应用.长江流域资源与环境,2000,5(2).
[26]胡淑恒.巢湖流域的生态安全预警研究[D].合肥工业大学.2004.5.
[27] 刘红,王慧,张兴卫.生态安全评价研究述评[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(1):74-78.
[28]万本太.中国生态环境质量评价研究[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2004.
[29]左伟,周慧珍,王桥.区域生态安全评价指标体系选区的概念框架研究[J].土壤,2003 年 1 期.
[30]曹凤中.中国城市环境可持续发展指标体系手册[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2001.6.
[31]Jorgensen,SE.Integration of Ecosystem Theories:A Pattern,2.Dordrecht:Kluwer,1997,400.
[32]Rapport,DJ.EvaluatingdanddMonitoringatheaHealthaofaLarge-ScaleEcosystems.Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,1995.5-31.
[33] 刘勇.区域土地资源可持续利用的生态安全评价研究[D].南京农业大学.2004.
[34] 吕光辉.中国西部干旱区生态安全评价、预警与调控研究——以新疆地区为例[D].新疆大学.2005.