设备运行阶段风险管理研究
|
摘要
设备运行阶段风险管理是设备管理的重要组成部分,也是当前设备管理的研究热点。本文以工业企业的运行阶段的生产设备为研究对象,主要研究了设备运行阶段风险管理体系的构建以及体系中涉及的风险分析、风险评价和风险控制等的策略方法。取得的研究成果对企业设备风险管理工作有重要的理论意义和应用价值。
危险源的识别是整个设备风险管理的首要问题,设备风险管理的实质是对危险源的管理。本文从管理角度出发,将危险源分为三类,即物质性危险源、管理性危险源和控制性危险源。对这三种危险源的深入分析可以使企业掌握危险源的具体位置和作用机理,有助于设备管理部门发现设备事故发生的根本原因并提出相应改进措施。
本文针对传统故障树方法的缺点,采用模糊故障树方法进行风险估计,使用参照函数为正态型的L-R模糊数来描述设备故障树中各事件发生的概率,根据模糊数的运算法则和模糊算子AND和OR的计算方法,推导出顶事件发生的模糊概率及其隶属函数分布,并用了一种行星轮传动系统作为案例,验证该传动系统的安全性,并为提高系统可靠性,提供了结构改进设计的理论依据。
本文从提高设备运行阶段的风险评价精确性的角度入手,构建了一种普适性较强的客观性较强的设备风险评价方法,使用故障树方法确定运行阶段的设备故障概率,将设备故障后果按照事故损失的不同类型转化为经济指标进行度量,能够获得精确的风险水平值。这种评价方法不仅能够实现设备风险状况的评价还能结合设备风险后评价做出风险控制措施效果的精确评价。最后用案例验证了该评价方法的可行性。
本文针对运行阶段的设备特点,在对现有风险控制理论分析的基础上,提出了基于设备风险防御的设备风险控制理论,并构建了设备风险防御体系,明确了相应的技术方法和风险控制流程,最后用案例论证了该理论可以帮助企业有效管理三类危险源中的危险因素。
Risk management within operation phrase is one of the important issues for plant management which has received great attention. In this dissertation, plants of the industry within operation phrase are the study objects, and two main subjects are researched that include how to build risk management system within operation phrase and the strategy methods of risk analysis, risk assessment and risk control etc. Productions of the research are useful for practice as well as for theory to plant risk management of industry.
Dangerous source identify is the initial issue. Deep down, plant risk management can be regard as management to dangerous source. In view of management, this dissertation divides dangerous source into three species, viz. physical dangerous source, managing dangerous source and manipulative dangerous source. Deep study of above sources can help to find where and how the dangerous sources work, which is the fundamental reason for plant failure, and then achieve related improved measures.
Relative to the defect of traditional fault tree,method of fuzzy fault tree for risk assessment is employed in this dissertation. L-R fuzzy data of normal distribution is employed to describe the probability of all the failure in fault tree. Fuzzy probability and its subject function of top failure is obtained by algorithm of fuzzy data and arithmetic operators-AND and OR. Finally analysis of planetary gear translation system, as one example, is used to prove security of the system, which is the base of theory to improve reliability and optimize design.
Based on the precision of risk assessment within plant operation phrase, the dissertation carries out a suitable and objective assessment model, viz. fault tree is employed to achieve failure probability during operation phrase, and then translate the results to economic index according to the types of the failures, and thus, we can obtain the precise value of risk. This method of risk assessment not only assesses the plant risk level but also assesses the effect of related control measure. Finally its feasibility is proved by one example.
To the plant trait of operation phrase, the dissertation puts forward plant risk prevention theory based on risk shield technology on the base of analysis of passing risk control theory. Plant risk prevention system is carried out, and related method along with flow procedure is confirmed. Finally one example is employed to prove
危险源的识别是整个设备风险管理的首要问题,设备风险管理的实质是对危险源的管理。本文从管理角度出发,将危险源分为三类,即物质性危险源、管理性危险源和控制性危险源。对这三种危险源的深入分析可以使企业掌握危险源的具体位置和作用机理,有助于设备管理部门发现设备事故发生的根本原因并提出相应改进措施。
本文针对传统故障树方法的缺点,采用模糊故障树方法进行风险估计,使用参照函数为正态型的L-R模糊数来描述设备故障树中各事件发生的概率,根据模糊数的运算法则和模糊算子AND和OR的计算方法,推导出顶事件发生的模糊概率及其隶属函数分布,并用了一种行星轮传动系统作为案例,验证该传动系统的安全性,并为提高系统可靠性,提供了结构改进设计的理论依据。
本文从提高设备运行阶段的风险评价精确性的角度入手,构建了一种普适性较强的客观性较强的设备风险评价方法,使用故障树方法确定运行阶段的设备故障概率,将设备故障后果按照事故损失的不同类型转化为经济指标进行度量,能够获得精确的风险水平值。这种评价方法不仅能够实现设备风险状况的评价还能结合设备风险后评价做出风险控制措施效果的精确评价。最后用案例验证了该评价方法的可行性。
本文针对运行阶段的设备特点,在对现有风险控制理论分析的基础上,提出了基于设备风险防御的设备风险控制理论,并构建了设备风险防御体系,明确了相应的技术方法和风险控制流程,最后用案例论证了该理论可以帮助企业有效管理三类危险源中的危险因素。
Risk management within operation phrase is one of the important issues for plant management which has received great attention. In this dissertation, plants of the industry within operation phrase are the study objects, and two main subjects are researched that include how to build risk management system within operation phrase and the strategy methods of risk analysis, risk assessment and risk control etc. Productions of the research are useful for practice as well as for theory to plant risk management of industry.
Dangerous source identify is the initial issue. Deep down, plant risk management can be regard as management to dangerous source. In view of management, this dissertation divides dangerous source into three species, viz. physical dangerous source, managing dangerous source and manipulative dangerous source. Deep study of above sources can help to find where and how the dangerous sources work, which is the fundamental reason for plant failure, and then achieve related improved measures.
Relative to the defect of traditional fault tree,method of fuzzy fault tree for risk assessment is employed in this dissertation. L-R fuzzy data of normal distribution is employed to describe the probability of all the failure in fault tree. Fuzzy probability and its subject function of top failure is obtained by algorithm of fuzzy data and arithmetic operators-AND and OR. Finally analysis of planetary gear translation system, as one example, is used to prove security of the system, which is the base of theory to improve reliability and optimize design.
Based on the precision of risk assessment within plant operation phrase, the dissertation carries out a suitable and objective assessment model, viz. fault tree is employed to achieve failure probability during operation phrase, and then translate the results to economic index according to the types of the failures, and thus, we can obtain the precise value of risk. This method of risk assessment not only assesses the plant risk level but also assesses the effect of related control measure. Finally its feasibility is proved by one example.
To the plant trait of operation phrase, the dissertation puts forward plant risk prevention theory based on risk shield technology on the base of analysis of passing risk control theory. Plant risk prevention system is carried out, and related method along with flow procedure is confirmed. Finally one example is employed to prove
引文
[1] 许谨良，企业风险管理[M]，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2000.6
[2] 中华人民共和国安全生产法, 2002
[3] Jovanovic A, Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and process plants in Europe [J], Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2003, 226:165~182
[4] 陆东，牟善军，欧洲设备风险检查技术发展及应用概况[J]，安全、健康和 环境，2004，4（1）：36~39
[5] 巫世晶，设备管理工程[M]，北京：中国电力出版社，2005，5
[6] 戈猛，维护管理中维护方式选择与维护能力评估研究[D]，天津：天津大 学，2006
[7] 李葆文，设备管理新思维新模式[M]，北京：机械工业出版社，1999，1~16
[8] 徐杨光等，设备工程与管理，上海：华东化工学院出版社，1992
[9] 肖保生等，设备管理系统，西安：西北工业大学出版社，1997
[10] 徐杨光著，设备综合工程学概论，北京：国防工业出版社，1988
[11] Nakajima S, Introduction to TPM, Productivity Press, Cambridge, MA, 1988
[12] Moubray J., Reliability centered maintenance, Oxford: Butterworth– Heineman, 1997
[13] Jorn Vatn, Maintenance Optimization from a Decision Theoretical Point of View, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1997
[14] Nowlan FS, Heap H., Reliability-centered maintenance, Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, US Department of Commerce, 1978
[15] 谢小鹏，设备状态识别与维修决策，北京：中国石化出版社，2000
[16] 韩世杰，波音公司的数字式维修系统，航空工程与维修，1999，（3）:17-19
[17] Zhang You-cheng，Optimization of Equipment Maintenance Strategy Based on Availability， Journal of China University of Mining &Technology， 2001,11(2): 142-146
[18] Wang Xiao-cheng, Wu Song-lin, Liu Cang-yi，Theory of Dynamic Diagnosis Based on Integrated Maintenance Information，International Journal of Plant Engineering and Management，2002, 7(1): 8-14
[19] 王晓群，风险管理，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2003，5-16
[20] 罗云，樊运晓，马晓春,风险分析与安全评价[M],北京：化学工业出版社， 2004,197
[21] Wang, John X. And Roush, M L., Risk engineering and management, New York, Basel: Marcel Dekker. Inc.2000
[22] ASME B3l.8S 2001，Supplement to B31.8 on management system of gas pipeline，ASME B31.8-2001，NewYork，2001
[23] ASME XI IWE~3650&Appendix H. Flaw Evaluation Procedures and Acceptance Criteria for Ferrites Piping. The ASME, NEW York, 1989
[24] 陈学东等，基于风险的检测 RBI 在中国石化企业的实践及若干问题讨论， 压力容器，2004，21（8）：40
[25] Koppen G., Development of risk-based inspection [A], Bieth M. Monjaret J.L. Proceedings of the first international conference on NDE Relationship to Structural Integrity for nuclear and pressurized components, Vol. II [C], Amsterdam: Woodhead Publishing Ltd.,1998,20~22
[26] J.T. Reynolds. The Application of Risk-Based Inspection Methodology in the Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry, ASMEPVP, 1996, (336):125-134.
[27] 顾望平，设备维修管理的新技术-基于风险的检测，待发表
[28] Jovanovic A, Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and process plants in Europe [J], Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2003, 226: 165~182
[29] T.L. Willke, U.S. Risk Management Can Reduce Regultion, Enhance Safety, Oil&Gas Journal, 1997, 95(24) 37-46.
[30] ASME, Risk-based inspection-Development of guidelines, Vol. 1: General Document [M], New York: American Society of Mechanical Engineering, 1992
[31] API, Base resource document on risk based inspection for API committee on refinery equipment [M],Washington, DC: American Petroleum Institute,1995
[32] 顾望平，设备维修管理的新技术-基于风险的检测，待发表
[33] API, API recommended practice 580, Risk-Based Inspection [S],2002.5
[34] API, API publication 581, base resource document - Risk-Based Inspection [S],2000.5
[35] Jovanovic A, Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and processplants in Europe [J],Nuclear Engineering and Design,2003, 226:165~182
[36] 袁家军，“神舟”号飞船的项目管理[J]，航天工业管理，2003， 11：9~12
[37] RIMAP Consortium. RIMAP Framework [R/OL]. http://research.dnv.com/ rimap/. 2005-09-08
[38] RIMAP Consortium. Report on current practice [R/OL]. http:// research.dnv. com/rimap/. 2005-09-08
[39] www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owadisp.show_document?p_table=STANDARDS &p_id =9760
[40] Ainsworth R.A., Milne I., Dowling A.R.&Stewart A.T. Assessing the Integrity of Structure Containing Defects by the Failure Assessment Diagram Approach of the CEGB. Fugue and Fracture Assessment By Analysis and Testing. Edited by Bhandari. S.K. et al. ASME PVP 1986,103:123-129
[41] （日）黑岩重雄，世界设备资产管理系统 PAM 的引进状况一，中国设备 工程，2005，5：12-13
[42] （日）黑岩重雄，世界设备资产管理系统 PAM 的引进状况二，中国设备 工程，2005，6：16-17
[43] （日）黑岩重雄，世界设备资产管理系统 PAM 的引进状况三，中国设备 工程，2005，7：13-14
[44] 李奇等，基于风险检测的风险评估方法，安全、健康和环境，2004，4（2）： 35-38
[45] 周丹，戴维·亚丁，周灿根，朱晓伟，医疗设备风险管理与预防性维修制 度[J]，世界医疗器械，2000，6（9）：54~56
[46] 国家标准局，中华人民共和国国家标准 GB6441-86，企业职工伤亡事故分 类，1986
[47] 国家标准局，中华人民共和国国家标准 GB/T13861-92，生产过程危险和危 害因素分类与代码，1992
[48] 李凯扬，基于风险的设备维护策略优化建模与模拟研究[D]，天津：天津 大学，2006
[49] 国家标准局，中华人民共和国国家标准 GB18218-2000，重大危险源识别， 2000
[50] Moore, R.G. Bea. Human and Organizational Error in Operations of MarineSystems: Occidental Piper Alpha and High-pressure Gas Systems on Offshore Platforms. University of California, Offshore Technology Conference, 1993
[51] Williams H.L., Reliability evaluation of the human component in man-machine systems. Electrical Manufacturing, 1958,5:78 -82
[52] 张圣坤, 船舶与海洋工程风险评估[M]，北京：国防工业出版社，2003:8-19
[53] 陈国华，结构完整性评估[M]，北京：科学出版社，2002，163~164
[54] 陈学东等，基于风险的检测 RBI 在实践中若干问题讨论，压力容器，2005， 22，（7）：36-44
[55] Khan F.I., Haddara M.M., Risk-based maintenance: a quantitative approach for maintenance/inspection scheduling and planning [J],Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2003, 16: 561~573
[56] Duthie J C, Robertson M I, Risk-based approaches to ageing and maintenance management [J], Nuclear Engineering and Design, 1998, 184: 27~38
[57] 张静 何花，等风险图法在矿山项目风险管理中的应用，中国煤炭,2005，3： 24-25
[58] Slovic P, The perception of risk [M], London: Earthscan Publications, 2000: 473
[59] 吕海燕，生产事故统计分析及预测理论方法研究[D]，北京：北京林业大 学，2004
[60] Khan F I, Abbasi S A., Safe Maintenance Practice [J],Chemical Industry Digest, 1998,3:91~105
[61] Kumar U., Maintenance strategies for mechanized and automated mining system: a reliability and risk analysis based approach [J], Journal of Mines, Metals and Fuels, Annual Review, 1998, 343~347
[62] Koppen G., Development of risk-based inspection [A], Bieth M. Monjaret J.L. Proceedings of the first international conference on NDE Relationship to Structural Integrity for nuclear and pressurized components, Vol.II [C], Amsterdam: Woodhead Publishing Ltd.,1998,20~22
[63] www.maintenanceresources.com/ReferenceLibrary/OilAnalysis/oa-what.htm
[64] G.Spur, D.Specht, T.Gobler，Building an Expert System for Maintenance. Diagnostic and Preventive Maintenance Strategies in Manufacturing, V.Milacicand J.Majstorovic, eds. North-Holland, 1988
[65] Intelligent Maintenance Systems Center. http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/IME /IMS
[66] 孔造杰，工业维护管理系统 ROM 理论与方法研究[D]，天津：天津大学， 2003
[67] James T.L.，Jens O.R., Uffe Thorsteinsson, Trends and Perspectives in Industrial Maintenance Management: Manufacturing Systems, 1997, 16(6): 437~453
[68] Sherif Y.S. Reliability ananlysis: optimal inspection and maintenance achedules of failing systems [J]. Micro. Reliab. 1982, 22: 59-115.
[69] Endrenyi J. etc. The present status of maintenance strategies and the impact of maintenance on reliability [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2001, 16(4): 638-646.
[70] 黄丹，David.Yadin，朱晓纬，中国医院管理杂志，2000，20（9）：42~43
[71] Yates F.j., Stone E.R. The risk construct: risk-taking behavior[M] New York: Wiley, 1992.1-25
[72] 商务印书馆辞书研究中心，古今汉语词典[M].北京：商务印书馆，2000
[73] Anon, Webster’s Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language[M] New York: Gramercy Books,1989
[74] （美）防务系统管理学院，系统工程管理指南[M].北京：宇航出版社，1992
[75] 何文炯.风险管理[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社 1999.2
[76] （日）龟井利明．危险管理论[M] (李松操译)，北京，中国金融出版社， 1988
[77] Stan Kaplan. The Words of Risk Analysis. Risk Analysis, 1998，17(4):25
[78] Rao V.K., Steven M.B., Robin M.P., stricoff R.S. Risk assessment and management handbook[M]. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc, 1996
[79] Kaplan S., Garrick B.J., On the quantitative definition of risk[J]. Risk Analysis, 1981, 1(1):1-9
[80] Kaplan S. The words of risk analysis[J]. Risk Analysis, 1997, 17(4): 407-417
[81] 赵涛，齐二石．设备监理，北京：科学出版社，2005，p1
[82] 巫世晶，设备管理工程[M]，北京：中国电力出版社，2005.59-85
[83] 张英志.关于型号研制技术状态管理的认识和实践，航天工业管理，1997，9
[84] Koppen G. Development of risk-based inspection [A]. Bieth M. Monjaret J.L. Proceedings of the first international conference on NDE Relationship to Structural Integrity for nuclear and pressurized components, Vol. II [C]. Amsterdam: Woodhead Publishing Ltd. 1998: 20-22.
[85] Aven T. Reliability and risk analysis [M]. London: Elsevier, 1992.
[86] Kaplan S. Risk assessment and risk management – basic concepts and terminology [M].Boston, MA Hemisphere, 1991.
[87] Norwegian Association of Standardisation. Risk analysis requirements [M]. 1991.
[88] Vatn J. A discussion of the acceptable risk problem [J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1998, 61: 11-19
[89] Khan F I., Haddara M. Risk-based maintenance: a new approach for process plant inspection and maintenance [J]. Process Safety Progress, 2004, 23(4): 252-265
[90] 张智勇，OHSAS18001(GB/T28001)职业健康安全管理体系认证实战指南 [M]，广州：广东经济出版社，2003，113~131
[91] 隋鹏程，陈宝智，隋旭，安全原理[M]，北京:化学工业出版社，2005，4： 15~16
[92] Occupational Safety and Health Administration, U. S. Department of Labor, Job Hazard alysis[EB/OL], http://www.osha.gov/pls/publications/pubindex.list, 2002
[93] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局，GB/T28001—2001，职业健 康安全管理体系规范[S]，北京:中国标准出版社出版，2001，12
[94] 罗云，徐德蜀等，注册安全工程师手册[M]，北京:化学工业出版社，2004， 226~228
[95] 王凯全，邵辉等，事故理论与分析技术[M]，北京:化学工业出版社，2004， 38~44
[96] 白勤虎，白芳，何金梅，生产系统的状态与危险源结构[J]，中国安全科 学学报，2000，10(5)：71~75
[97] Nancy Leveson, A New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems, Safety Science, 2004, 42: 237~270
[98] Abder Seridji, E.M. Pathe, Peter Regan, The Advanced Risk ManagementSystem: ARMS, Offshore Technology Conference, 1994
[99] Acknowledgement: this research was partially supported by a financial Contribution by the Gruppo nazionate per la difesa dai rischi chimico industriali ecologici of the National Research Council, Grant N.95.02008,PF37
[100] Moore, R.G. Bea, Human and Organizational Error in Operations of Marine Systems: Occidental Piper Alpha and High-pressure Gas Systems on Offshore Platforms, University of California, Offshore Technology Conference,1993
[101] 卢岚，安全工程[M]，天津：天津大学出版社，2003，197
[102] 王卓甫，工程项目风险管理——理论、方法与应用[M]，北京：中国水利 水电出版社，2003，25~28
[103] 郭仲伟，风险的估计——风险分析与决策讲座(二)[J]，系统工程理论与 实践，1987，2：73~78
[104] Borgonovo E., Marseguerra M., Zio E., A monto Carlo methodological approach to plant abailability modeling with maintenance, aging and obsolescence [J], Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2000,67:61~73
[105] D.H. Lehmer, Mathematical methods in largescale computing units, Proc. sym. On largescale digital calculate Machinery, Harvard Univ. Press. 1951,141
[106] 史定华，王松瑞，故障树分析技术——方法和理论[M]，北京:北京师范 大学出版社，1993，1~7
[107] 苏晓勤，故障树分析算法改进研究与实现[D]，河北工业大学，2005，4~9
[108] 孙权，应用故障树解决实际问题[J]，电子质量，2005，8：26~31
[109] 张建华，郭进，液化石油气储罐销爆过程安全风险事故树分析[J]，武汉 理工大学学报，2005，27（7）：109~111
[110] 汪林生，可靠性分析技术（二）故障树分析(FTA)[J]，家用电器科技， 2002，5：82~83
[111] 付杰，基于模糊理论的故障树分析技术[D]，四川大学，2001，15~16
[112] 孙瑜，李瑰贤，魏海军，圆柱正弦活齿减速器模糊故障树分析[J]，大连 海事大学学报，2004，30（3）：77~80
[113] Pearman A.D., Scenario construction fox transportation planning[J] Transportation Planning and Technology, 1988 ,7: 73~85
[114] Kahn J, Wiener A J.,The year 2000 : a framework for speculation on the next 33 years[ M],New York: MacMillan Press,1967
[115] Ratcliffe J S. Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic propertyplanning?[C], Cambridge: RICS Cutting Edge Conference ,1999
[116] Fahey L, Randal R.M., Learning from the future: competitive foresight scenarios[M],New York:Wiley,1998,52~55
[117] Shiftan Y, Kaplan S, Hakkert S, Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system[J], Transporation Research Part D, 2003, 8(5): 323~342
[118] Ringland G., Scenario planning: managing for the future, New York: John Wiley, 1998,3~15
[119] Singer D,A fussy set approach to fault tree and reliability analysis[J], Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1990,34:145~155
[120] 饶振纲，行星齿轮传动设计[M]，北京：化学工业出版社，2003，1
[121] 武永生，安全风险评价的两种方法比较，环境与安全，2005，8：55~57
[122] Vincent, T., Thanos, M., Simon, W., John, A., Ron, L. and Edi, B., Application of ALARP to the Design of the BP Andrew Platform Against Smoke and Gas Ingress and Gas Explosion, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 1996,9 (5): 317~322
[123] Knight. M. R., Technological innovation in Canada: A comparison of independent entrepreneurs and corporate innovators, Journal of Business Venturing, July 1989, 4(4): 281~288
[124] Melchers, R.E., On The ALARP Approach to Risk Management. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2001, 71(2): 201~208.
[125] Bao, L. T., Des Principles de Securitegame, Mem, Alarp, Recherche Transports Security, 2000,68:48~65
[126] (美)维齐利著,故障树手册[M](疏松桂,唐信青译),北京:原子能出版社, 1987, 45
[127] 史定华，王松瑞.故障树分析技术方法和理论[M], 北京:北京师范大学出 版社, 1993, 30
[128] 阿里巴巴电子商务网站, http://liminghjhy.cn.alibaba.com/
[129] 宋明哲，现代风险管理[M]，北京：中国纺织出版社，2003，21~38
[130] 李克武，郭建胜，周长飞，航空维修人为因素事故分析系统研究，航空 维修与工程，2005，6：42~43
[131] Cox, S. J., Tait, N.R.S., Reliability, safety and risk management-an integrated approach. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. 1993
[132] 罗云，樊运晓，马晓春,风险分析与安全评价[M],北京：化学工业出版社， 2004,197
[133] 巩亚明，生产过程中的风险控制和安全管理[J]，安全、健康和环境，2006， 6(1)：43~44
[134] Head, G.L., Essentials of risk control. Pennsylvania: IIA. Vol.1, 1986
[135] 杨国安，周世刚，一种适用于机械非平稳故障信号的分析方法[J]，信号 处理，2001,17(3)：287~290
[136] 徐峰，王志芳，AR 模型应用于振动信号趋势预测的研究，清华大学学报： 自然科学版，1999，39(4)：57~59
[137] 徐玉秀，原培新，杨文平，基于柯氏熵的汽车发动机状态预测的可行性 研究，振动与冲击，2004，23(3)：101~102
[138] 邓聚龙，灰色预测与决策[M]，武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1998，125~134
[139] 傅立，灰色理论及应用[M]，北京:科学技术文献出版社,1992，58~64.
[140] 臧德彦，灰色系统理论在海堤沉降预测中的应用[J]，测绘工程，1999， 8(2):50
[141] 朱永全,景诗庭,张清，时间序列在隧道施工监测中的应用[J]，岩石力学 与工程学报，1996，15(4):353
[142] 黄昕,黄东，深基坑支护结构侧向位移时间序列分析[J]，岩土工程技术， 1999，2：21
[143] Drogaris, G. Learning from major accidents involving dangerous substances, Safety Science,1993,16:89~113
[144] Rasmussen, K,The Experience with the Major Accident Reporting System from 1984 to 1993, 1996,CEC, EUR 16341 EN
[145] O. Hara, J.M., Higgins, J.C., Stubler, W.C. and Kramer, J., Computer-based Procedure Systems Design: Technical Basis and Human Factors Review Guidance NUREG/CR26633[M], Washington, DC: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2000
[146] P. L. Clemens,Energy Flow/ Barrier Analysis[M],JACOBS/JE28671, 2002
[147] 高亚娟，风险控制与安全管理[J]，东北电力技术，2005，2：43~44
[148] 张干清，张力，王以群，人误屏障分析技术[J]，中国安全科学学报，2005，
[2] 中华人民共和国安全生产法, 2002
[3] Jovanovic A, Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and process plants in Europe [J], Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2003, 226:165~182
[4] 陆东，牟善军，欧洲设备风险检查技术发展及应用概况[J]，安全、健康和 环境，2004，4（1）：36~39
[5] 巫世晶，设备管理工程[M]，北京：中国电力出版社，2005，5
[6] 戈猛，维护管理中维护方式选择与维护能力评估研究[D]，天津：天津大 学，2006
[7] 李葆文，设备管理新思维新模式[M]，北京：机械工业出版社，1999，1~16
[8] 徐杨光等，设备工程与管理，上海：华东化工学院出版社，1992
[9] 肖保生等，设备管理系统，西安：西北工业大学出版社，1997
[10] 徐杨光著，设备综合工程学概论，北京：国防工业出版社，1988
[11] Nakajima S, Introduction to TPM, Productivity Press, Cambridge, MA, 1988
[12] Moubray J., Reliability centered maintenance, Oxford: Butterworth– Heineman, 1997
[13] Jorn Vatn, Maintenance Optimization from a Decision Theoretical Point of View, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1997
[14] Nowlan FS, Heap H., Reliability-centered maintenance, Springfield, VA: National Technical Information Service, US Department of Commerce, 1978
[15] 谢小鹏，设备状态识别与维修决策，北京：中国石化出版社，2000
[16] 韩世杰，波音公司的数字式维修系统，航空工程与维修，1999，（3）:17-19
[17] Zhang You-cheng，Optimization of Equipment Maintenance Strategy Based on Availability， Journal of China University of Mining &Technology， 2001,11(2): 142-146
[18] Wang Xiao-cheng, Wu Song-lin, Liu Cang-yi，Theory of Dynamic Diagnosis Based on Integrated Maintenance Information，International Journal of Plant Engineering and Management，2002, 7(1): 8-14
[19] 王晓群，风险管理，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2003，5-16
[20] 罗云，樊运晓，马晓春,风险分析与安全评价[M],北京：化学工业出版社， 2004,197
[21] Wang, John X. And Roush, M L., Risk engineering and management, New York, Basel: Marcel Dekker. Inc.2000
[22] ASME B3l.8S 2001，Supplement to B31.8 on management system of gas pipeline，ASME B31.8-2001，NewYork，2001
[23] ASME XI IWE~3650&Appendix H. Flaw Evaluation Procedures and Acceptance Criteria for Ferrites Piping. The ASME, NEW York, 1989
[24] 陈学东等，基于风险的检测 RBI 在中国石化企业的实践及若干问题讨论， 压力容器，2004，21（8）：40
[25] Koppen G., Development of risk-based inspection [A], Bieth M. Monjaret J.L. Proceedings of the first international conference on NDE Relationship to Structural Integrity for nuclear and pressurized components, Vol. II [C], Amsterdam: Woodhead Publishing Ltd.,1998,20~22
[26] J.T. Reynolds. The Application of Risk-Based Inspection Methodology in the Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry, ASMEPVP, 1996, (336):125-134.
[27] 顾望平，设备维修管理的新技术-基于风险的检测，待发表
[28] Jovanovic A, Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and process plants in Europe [J], Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2003, 226: 165~182
[29] T.L. Willke, U.S. Risk Management Can Reduce Regultion, Enhance Safety, Oil&Gas Journal, 1997, 95(24) 37-46.
[30] ASME, Risk-based inspection-Development of guidelines, Vol. 1: General Document [M], New York: American Society of Mechanical Engineering, 1992
[31] API, Base resource document on risk based inspection for API committee on refinery equipment [M],Washington, DC: American Petroleum Institute,1995
[32] 顾望平，设备维修管理的新技术-基于风险的检测，待发表
[33] API, API recommended practice 580, Risk-Based Inspection [S],2002.5
[34] API, API publication 581, base resource document - Risk-Based Inspection [S],2000.5
[35] Jovanovic A, Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and processplants in Europe [J],Nuclear Engineering and Design,2003, 226:165~182
[36] 袁家军，“神舟”号飞船的项目管理[J]，航天工业管理，2003， 11：9~12
[37] RIMAP Consortium. RIMAP Framework [R/OL]. http://research.dnv.com/ rimap/. 2005-09-08
[38] RIMAP Consortium. Report on current practice [R/OL]. http:// research.dnv. com/rimap/. 2005-09-08
[39] www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owadisp.show_document?p_table=STANDARDS &p_id =9760
[40] Ainsworth R.A., Milne I., Dowling A.R.&Stewart A.T. Assessing the Integrity of Structure Containing Defects by the Failure Assessment Diagram Approach of the CEGB. Fugue and Fracture Assessment By Analysis and Testing. Edited by Bhandari. S.K. et al. ASME PVP 1986,103:123-129
[41] （日）黑岩重雄，世界设备资产管理系统 PAM 的引进状况一，中国设备 工程，2005，5：12-13
[42] （日）黑岩重雄，世界设备资产管理系统 PAM 的引进状况二，中国设备 工程，2005，6：16-17
[43] （日）黑岩重雄，世界设备资产管理系统 PAM 的引进状况三，中国设备 工程，2005，7：13-14
[44] 李奇等，基于风险检测的风险评估方法，安全、健康和环境，2004，4（2）： 35-38
[45] 周丹，戴维·亚丁，周灿根，朱晓伟，医疗设备风险管理与预防性维修制 度[J]，世界医疗器械，2000，6（9）：54~56
[46] 国家标准局，中华人民共和国国家标准 GB6441-86，企业职工伤亡事故分 类，1986
[47] 国家标准局，中华人民共和国国家标准 GB/T13861-92，生产过程危险和危 害因素分类与代码，1992
[48] 李凯扬，基于风险的设备维护策略优化建模与模拟研究[D]，天津：天津 大学，2006
[49] 国家标准局，中华人民共和国国家标准 GB18218-2000，重大危险源识别， 2000
[50] Moore, R.G. Bea. Human and Organizational Error in Operations of MarineSystems: Occidental Piper Alpha and High-pressure Gas Systems on Offshore Platforms. University of California, Offshore Technology Conference, 1993
[51] Williams H.L., Reliability evaluation of the human component in man-machine systems. Electrical Manufacturing, 1958,5:78 -82
[52] 张圣坤, 船舶与海洋工程风险评估[M]，北京：国防工业出版社，2003:8-19
[53] 陈国华，结构完整性评估[M]，北京：科学出版社，2002，163~164
[54] 陈学东等，基于风险的检测 RBI 在实践中若干问题讨论，压力容器，2005， 22，（7）：36-44
[55] Khan F.I., Haddara M.M., Risk-based maintenance: a quantitative approach for maintenance/inspection scheduling and planning [J],Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2003, 16: 561~573
[56] Duthie J C, Robertson M I, Risk-based approaches to ageing and maintenance management [J], Nuclear Engineering and Design, 1998, 184: 27~38
[57] 张静 何花，等风险图法在矿山项目风险管理中的应用，中国煤炭,2005，3： 24-25
[58] Slovic P, The perception of risk [M], London: Earthscan Publications, 2000: 473
[59] 吕海燕，生产事故统计分析及预测理论方法研究[D]，北京：北京林业大 学，2004
[60] Khan F I, Abbasi S A., Safe Maintenance Practice [J],Chemical Industry Digest, 1998,3:91~105
[61] Kumar U., Maintenance strategies for mechanized and automated mining system: a reliability and risk analysis based approach [J], Journal of Mines, Metals and Fuels, Annual Review, 1998, 343~347
[62] Koppen G., Development of risk-based inspection [A], Bieth M. Monjaret J.L. Proceedings of the first international conference on NDE Relationship to Structural Integrity for nuclear and pressurized components, Vol.II [C], Amsterdam: Woodhead Publishing Ltd.,1998,20~22
[63] www.maintenanceresources.com/ReferenceLibrary/OilAnalysis/oa-what.htm
[64] G.Spur, D.Specht, T.Gobler，Building an Expert System for Maintenance. Diagnostic and Preventive Maintenance Strategies in Manufacturing, V.Milacicand J.Majstorovic, eds. North-Holland, 1988
[65] Intelligent Maintenance Systems Center. http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/IME /IMS
[66] 孔造杰，工业维护管理系统 ROM 理论与方法研究[D]，天津：天津大学， 2003
[67] James T.L.，Jens O.R., Uffe Thorsteinsson, Trends and Perspectives in Industrial Maintenance Management: Manufacturing Systems, 1997, 16(6): 437~453
[68] Sherif Y.S. Reliability ananlysis: optimal inspection and maintenance achedules of failing systems [J]. Micro. Reliab. 1982, 22: 59-115.
[69] Endrenyi J. etc. The present status of maintenance strategies and the impact of maintenance on reliability [J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2001, 16(4): 638-646.
[70] 黄丹，David.Yadin，朱晓纬，中国医院管理杂志，2000，20（9）：42~43
[71] Yates F.j., Stone E.R. The risk construct: risk-taking behavior[M] New York: Wiley, 1992.1-25
[72] 商务印书馆辞书研究中心，古今汉语词典[M].北京：商务印书馆，2000
[73] Anon, Webster’s Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language[M] New York: Gramercy Books,1989
[74] （美）防务系统管理学院，系统工程管理指南[M].北京：宇航出版社，1992
[75] 何文炯.风险管理[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社 1999.2
[76] （日）龟井利明．危险管理论[M] (李松操译)，北京，中国金融出版社， 1988
[77] Stan Kaplan. The Words of Risk Analysis. Risk Analysis, 1998，17(4):25
[78] Rao V.K., Steven M.B., Robin M.P., stricoff R.S. Risk assessment and management handbook[M]. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc, 1996
[79] Kaplan S., Garrick B.J., On the quantitative definition of risk[J]. Risk Analysis, 1981, 1(1):1-9
[80] Kaplan S. The words of risk analysis[J]. Risk Analysis, 1997, 17(4): 407-417
[81] 赵涛，齐二石．设备监理，北京：科学出版社，2005，p1
[82] 巫世晶，设备管理工程[M]，北京：中国电力出版社，2005.59-85
[83] 张英志.关于型号研制技术状态管理的认识和实践，航天工业管理，1997，9
[84] Koppen G. Development of risk-based inspection [A]. Bieth M. Monjaret J.L. Proceedings of the first international conference on NDE Relationship to Structural Integrity for nuclear and pressurized components, Vol. II [C]. Amsterdam: Woodhead Publishing Ltd. 1998: 20-22.
[85] Aven T. Reliability and risk analysis [M]. London: Elsevier, 1992.
[86] Kaplan S. Risk assessment and risk management – basic concepts and terminology [M].Boston, MA Hemisphere, 1991.
[87] Norwegian Association of Standardisation. Risk analysis requirements [M]. 1991.
[88] Vatn J. A discussion of the acceptable risk problem [J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1998, 61: 11-19
[89] Khan F I., Haddara M. Risk-based maintenance: a new approach for process plant inspection and maintenance [J]. Process Safety Progress, 2004, 23(4): 252-265
[90] 张智勇，OHSAS18001(GB/T28001)职业健康安全管理体系认证实战指南 [M]，广州：广东经济出版社，2003，113~131
[91] 隋鹏程，陈宝智，隋旭，安全原理[M]，北京:化学工业出版社，2005，4： 15~16
[92] Occupational Safety and Health Administration, U. S. Department of Labor, Job Hazard alysis[EB/OL], http://www.osha.gov/pls/publications/pubindex.list, 2002
[93] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局，GB/T28001—2001，职业健 康安全管理体系规范[S]，北京:中国标准出版社出版，2001，12
[94] 罗云，徐德蜀等，注册安全工程师手册[M]，北京:化学工业出版社，2004， 226~228
[95] 王凯全，邵辉等，事故理论与分析技术[M]，北京:化学工业出版社，2004， 38~44
[96] 白勤虎，白芳，何金梅，生产系统的状态与危险源结构[J]，中国安全科 学学报，2000，10(5)：71~75
[97] Nancy Leveson, A New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems, Safety Science, 2004, 42: 237~270
[98] Abder Seridji, E.M. Pathe, Peter Regan, The Advanced Risk ManagementSystem: ARMS, Offshore Technology Conference, 1994
[99] Acknowledgement: this research was partially supported by a financial Contribution by the Gruppo nazionate per la difesa dai rischi chimico industriali ecologici of the National Research Council, Grant N.95.02008,PF37
[100] Moore, R.G. Bea, Human and Organizational Error in Operations of Marine Systems: Occidental Piper Alpha and High-pressure Gas Systems on Offshore Platforms, University of California, Offshore Technology Conference,1993
[101] 卢岚，安全工程[M]，天津：天津大学出版社，2003，197
[102] 王卓甫，工程项目风险管理——理论、方法与应用[M]，北京：中国水利 水电出版社，2003，25~28
[103] 郭仲伟，风险的估计——风险分析与决策讲座(二)[J]，系统工程理论与 实践，1987，2：73~78
[104] Borgonovo E., Marseguerra M., Zio E., A monto Carlo methodological approach to plant abailability modeling with maintenance, aging and obsolescence [J], Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2000,67:61~73
[105] D.H. Lehmer, Mathematical methods in largescale computing units, Proc. sym. On largescale digital calculate Machinery, Harvard Univ. Press. 1951,141
[106] 史定华，王松瑞，故障树分析技术——方法和理论[M]，北京:北京师范 大学出版社，1993，1~7
[107] 苏晓勤，故障树分析算法改进研究与实现[D]，河北工业大学，2005，4~9
[108] 孙权，应用故障树解决实际问题[J]，电子质量，2005，8：26~31
[109] 张建华，郭进，液化石油气储罐销爆过程安全风险事故树分析[J]，武汉 理工大学学报，2005，27（7）：109~111
[110] 汪林生，可靠性分析技术（二）故障树分析(FTA)[J]，家用电器科技， 2002，5：82~83
[111] 付杰，基于模糊理论的故障树分析技术[D]，四川大学，2001，15~16
[112] 孙瑜，李瑰贤，魏海军，圆柱正弦活齿减速器模糊故障树分析[J]，大连 海事大学学报，2004，30（3）：77~80
[113] Pearman A.D., Scenario construction fox transportation planning[J] Transportation Planning and Technology, 1988 ,7: 73~85
[114] Kahn J, Wiener A J.,The year 2000 : a framework for speculation on the next 33 years[ M],New York: MacMillan Press,1967
[115] Ratcliffe J S. Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic propertyplanning?[C], Cambridge: RICS Cutting Edge Conference ,1999
[116] Fahey L, Randal R.M., Learning from the future: competitive foresight scenarios[M],New York:Wiley,1998,52~55
[117] Shiftan Y, Kaplan S, Hakkert S, Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system[J], Transporation Research Part D, 2003, 8(5): 323~342
[118] Ringland G., Scenario planning: managing for the future, New York: John Wiley, 1998,3~15
[119] Singer D,A fussy set approach to fault tree and reliability analysis[J], Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1990,34:145~155
[120] 饶振纲，行星齿轮传动设计[M]，北京：化学工业出版社，2003，1
[121] 武永生，安全风险评价的两种方法比较，环境与安全，2005，8：55~57
[122] Vincent, T., Thanos, M., Simon, W., John, A., Ron, L. and Edi, B., Application of ALARP to the Design of the BP Andrew Platform Against Smoke and Gas Ingress and Gas Explosion, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 1996,9 (5): 317~322
[123] Knight. M. R., Technological innovation in Canada: A comparison of independent entrepreneurs and corporate innovators, Journal of Business Venturing, July 1989, 4(4): 281~288
[124] Melchers, R.E., On The ALARP Approach to Risk Management. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2001, 71(2): 201~208.
[125] Bao, L. T., Des Principles de Securitegame, Mem, Alarp, Recherche Transports Security, 2000,68:48~65
[126] (美)维齐利著,故障树手册[M](疏松桂,唐信青译),北京:原子能出版社, 1987, 45
[127] 史定华，王松瑞.故障树分析技术方法和理论[M], 北京:北京师范大学出 版社, 1993, 30
[128] 阿里巴巴电子商务网站, http://liminghjhy.cn.alibaba.com/
[129] 宋明哲，现代风险管理[M]，北京：中国纺织出版社，2003，21~38
[130] 李克武，郭建胜，周长飞，航空维修人为因素事故分析系统研究，航空 维修与工程，2005，6：42~43
[131] Cox, S. J., Tait, N.R.S., Reliability, safety and risk management-an integrated approach. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. 1993
[132] 罗云，樊运晓，马晓春,风险分析与安全评价[M],北京：化学工业出版社， 2004,197
[133] 巩亚明，生产过程中的风险控制和安全管理[J]，安全、健康和环境，2006， 6(1)：43~44
[134] Head, G.L., Essentials of risk control. Pennsylvania: IIA. Vol.1, 1986
[135] 杨国安，周世刚，一种适用于机械非平稳故障信号的分析方法[J]，信号 处理，2001,17(3)：287~290
[136] 徐峰，王志芳，AR 模型应用于振动信号趋势预测的研究，清华大学学报： 自然科学版，1999，39(4)：57~59
[137] 徐玉秀，原培新，杨文平，基于柯氏熵的汽车发动机状态预测的可行性 研究，振动与冲击，2004，23(3)：101~102
[138] 邓聚龙，灰色预测与决策[M]，武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1998，125~134
[139] 傅立，灰色理论及应用[M]，北京:科学技术文献出版社,1992，58~64.
[140] 臧德彦，灰色系统理论在海堤沉降预测中的应用[J]，测绘工程，1999， 8(2):50
[141] 朱永全,景诗庭,张清，时间序列在隧道施工监测中的应用[J]，岩石力学 与工程学报，1996，15(4):353
[142] 黄昕,黄东，深基坑支护结构侧向位移时间序列分析[J]，岩土工程技术， 1999，2：21
[143] Drogaris, G. Learning from major accidents involving dangerous substances, Safety Science,1993,16:89~113
[144] Rasmussen, K,The Experience with the Major Accident Reporting System from 1984 to 1993, 1996,CEC, EUR 16341 EN
[145] O. Hara, J.M., Higgins, J.C., Stubler, W.C. and Kramer, J., Computer-based Procedure Systems Design: Technical Basis and Human Factors Review Guidance NUREG/CR26633[M], Washington, DC: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2000
[146] P. L. Clemens,Energy Flow/ Barrier Analysis[M],JACOBS/JE28671, 2002
[147] 高亚娟，风险控制与安全管理[J]，东北电力技术，2005，2：43~44
[148] 张干清，张力，王以群，人误屏障分析技术[J]，中国安全科学学报，2005，