订单式生产人工作业系统组织与计划决策
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摘要
改革开放三十多年来,我国中小型制造企业数目不断增加、规模不断扩大,成为推动国民经济快速发展、解决社会就业问题的关键力量之一。在竞争日趋激烈、需求复杂多变的国内外市场环境下,订单式生产(MTO-Make To Order)已成为我国中小型制造企业应对市场风险、提升竞争力的主要运作模式,而人工作业系统(MOS-Manual Operation System)是我国中小型制造企业生产系统降低生产成本、提高系统柔性、满足客户订单需求的主要结构模式。然而,随着全球金融危机影响的继续蔓延及国际政治对经济的不利影响,我国出口贸易总体形势严峻,且顾客个性化、复杂化、快速交货的要求更加显著,使得企业加速产品创新、缩短产品周期、改善运营管理的压力更大,技术的不断革新、市场的瞬息万变也使得同行业竞争更为激烈,再加上国内招工难、劳动力成本上升、资源价格上涨的现实状况及人民币汇率上升、通货膨胀等经济问题的困扰,我国中小制造企业的生存与发展正面临前所未有的挑战。从企业内部生产运营的角度,由于众多因素的影响,我国中小制造企业也存在较多问题。
本文以我国中小型制造企业MTO/MOS实际问题为导向,把实践问题总结、提炼并归纳为理论问题,研究和探索适应订单式生产环境的MOS组织和管理模式,建立针对订单需求量和交货期的计划决策模型,为降低我国中小制造企业生产运营成本、提升其竞争力并有效应对客户需求提供理论和方法支持。具体内容如下：
一、以“一线员工”为自治实体的MOS自组织、自适应机理及状态演化研究：分析MTO运作模式下MOS的概念、特点、外部环境、构成要素、内部关系、结构、功能及自组织特性,探讨MTO/MOS订单要求及任务的复杂变化、系统绩效或目标、一线员工状态变量、控制参数及随机扰动因素,以此为基础构建MTO/MOS自组织、自适应机理,对系统目标、员工状态、控制参数及随机扰动因素的内部关系及相互作用进行解析。以上述机理为基础,建立基于协同动力学的MOS一线员工行为状态演化模型,通过序参量分析及对模型的求解,得出随机涨落力为零时的MOS不稳定态及稳定态解,并对解的实际意义进行了说明,在此基础上分析MOS达到及维持稳定态所需的条件。
二、明确了MTO/MOS自组织、自适应运作机理及状态演化规律后,进一步研究影响MOS员工状态的控制参数之一——组织模式。当订单品种、任务量(即计划投产量)及交货期等复杂变化时,分析并构建基于自组织、自适应机理的动态组织模式。具体内容是：分析MTO/MOS组织模式的影响因素、特点及表现形式,计算各静态作业模式计划期内的产量并予以比较,画出动态组织模式下基于新订单任务、生产进度失衡及紧急插单任务三种情形的流程图,并介绍了MTO/MOS实施动态组织模式的原则及条件。基于员工的能动性及多技能,采用多Agent建模的方法对MOS动态组织模式的机制和体系进行研究,提出了协调Agent重组Agent、任务Agent、虚拟工作中心Agent、员工Agent的概念,在自治与协调机制下,建立了基于多Agent的MTO/MOS动态组织模式控制架构图,在架构图的基础上分析了各Agent的运作关系及功能。
三、由二可知,订单任务量的复杂变化是影响MOS动态组织模式的因素之一,而任务量即针对订单需求量的计划投产量。考虑在随机合格品率、质量学习率、不确定返工有效率等条件下,分别对单阶段及多生产阶段下的MTO/MOS最优计划投产量进行决策。具体内容是：一)在生产实际问题描述的基础上,建立了仅考虑随机合格品率及综合考虑质量学习率与合格品率的单生产阶段计划投产量模型,通过算例分析对模型进行应用和验证,并对合格品率均值及标准差、初始不合格概率及质量学习系数进行敏感性分析,得出有关结论。二)综合考虑当合格品率服从连续随机分布及返工有效率服从离散随机分布时,对单阶段计划投产量进行建模及优化决策。通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性、得出了相关规律,并对合格品率均值及标准差进行了敏感性分析。三)针对多阶段生产系统,考虑当各阶段的合格率分别为常数、服从离散随机分布、服从连续随机分布时,对其计划投产量及生产成本进行建模、求解及优化决策,并进行了理论推导及算例分析,得出了有关结论。
四、针对影响MTO/MOS组织模式的另一重要因素——订单交货期复杂变化,对正式投产前的最佳订购日期及正式投产后的完工期预测及最优承诺交货期决策进行研究,具体内容如下：一)对于物料订购时间决策,考虑原材料订购种类为一种或多种、完工期确定或随机及是否考虑返工的八种情形,对每种情形建立了模型,并主要采用古典数学方法中的极值法、拉格朗日乘子法、内点障碍罚函数法等方法对模型进行分析及求解,通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性和适用性。二)当物料供应及生产准备工作完成后,将对订单安排生产。针对影响完工期的各类因素,基于统计分析对完工期进行预测,建立区间预测模型、进行数值仿真,并对完工期均值进行敏感性分析,提出了控制完工期影响因素的措施。三)依据有关假设建立客户要求交货期模型,在相关原则指导下,确立生产企业承诺交货期及价格决策模型,并进行了算例分析。
全文紧紧围绕MTO/MOS的四大核心绩效(成本、质量、数量、交货期)进行研究,其中第一部分内容为基础理论研究,总领全文,第二部分内容起着承上启下的作用,三、四部分内容与一、二部分内容相辅相成。
本课题的研究得到国家自然科学基金(名称：订单式生产人工作业系统(MTO/MOS)组织与优化研究,编号：70971026)的资助。
Since our country began to reform and open in1978,the number of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMMEs) has been increasing and the size of them has been expanding,there is no doubt that the SMMEs have become the one of the the key forces which promote the national economy rapidly develop and solve the problem of social employment.Under the domestic and international market environment of increasingly fierce competition and complex demands,Make To Order(MTO) has become the main operation mode of the SMMEs that effectively respond to market risk and enhance competitiveness,while the Manual Operation System (MOS) has become the main structure mode of the SMMEs production system that can lower production costs, improve system flexibility and meet the customer demands. However,as the global financial crisis continuing to spread and the international politics having an adverse impact on the economy,the overall situation of China's export trade is grim,and the needs tends to be more custom,complex and rapidly delivery.Therefore,the enterprises have the great pressure to accelerate product innovation, shorten product cycle and improve the operation management.Technology innovation and rapidly changing market also makes the more intense competition in the same industry,Coupled with the realty of domestic recruitment difficulties, rising labor costs and the rising resource prices and the economical problems of RMB exchange rate going up and currency expansion,the SMMEs in CHINA is facing unprecedented challenges about the survival and development.From the point of the internal operations, due to a number of factors, there are many problems in the SMMEs.
As the actual problems of the MTO/MOS in SMMEs are oriented,summarized and refined as theoretical issues,the paper researches and explores the MOS organization and management mode which adapts to the environment of MTO,and the models of plan decision-making concerning order demands and delivery are established. The following research supports SMMEs in theories and methods that can reduce the operating costs,enhance their competitiveness and respond effectively to customer needs. The specific contents are displayed as follows:
First,study about the mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive and the state of evolution in MOS that the frontline employees are viewed as autonomous entities:the concept,features,external environment,elements,internal relations, structure, function and self-organizing characteristic of MOS is analyzed under MTO,and the order requirements, the complex changes of tasks,system performance or goals,state variables of employees,control parameters and random disturbance factors are explored about MTO/MOS.Then,the mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive bout MTO/MOS is constructed based on the above contents,moreover, the internal relations and interactions about the system goals, employees state, control parameters and random disturbance factors are described based on the mechanism,the model about the state evolution of the employees' behavior is established as the theory of collaborative dynamics being applied. The unstable state and stable state solution is obtained by the order parameter analysis and solution of the model when the random fluctuation force is zero. The practical significance of the solutions is explained and conditions that the MOS achieves and maintains a desired steady state are given.
Second,after the operation mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive and the discipline of state evolution about MTO/MOS is cleared, the organization mode,which is one of the control parameters that affect the state of the MOS staff,is further studied. When the variety,tasks (that is the planning input) and the delivery of the orders change intricately,according to the mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive,the dynamic organization mode is analyzed and built.The detail is illustrated as follows:the influencing factors, characteristics and the manifestation styles of the organization mode about MTO/MOS are analyzed,the quantities in the same period about every static operation mode are calculated and compared,and the flow charts about three dynamic organization modes based on new order tasks, imbalance in the schedule and emergency plugging new orders are drawn.The principles and conditions that the MTO/MOS carried out the dynamic organization mode are described.Based on the employee's initiative and multi-skilled,the mechanism and system about the MOS dynamic organization mode is studied by using the method of Multi-Agent, and the concepts of Coordination Agent,Reconfiguration Agent,Task Agent, Virtual Work Center Agent and Employee Agent are proposed. According to the mechanism of autonomous and coordination,the control architecture chart about the MTO/MOS dynamic organization mode is established based on Multi-Agent. The relations and functions of each Agent are explained on the basis of the above chart.
Third,from the above we know that the complexity of the amount of task change is one of the factors influencing the MOS dynamic organization mode,while the task amount is the planning input. As the random rate of qualified products,the quality learning rate and the uncertain rate of efficient rework is considered,the decisions of optimal planning input are made respectively for the single-stage and multi-stage of production.The specifics are displayed as follows:a)After the description of actual problems,the model about planning input yields that only considering the random rate of qualified products is built for the single stage,the model is applied and tested through a numerical example. The sensitivity about the mean and standard deviation of the rate of qualified products, the probability of the initial unqualified product and the learning coefficient is analyzed, some relevant conclusions are drawn,b) It models and makes optimal decisions about the planning input yields for the single production stage while comprehensively considering the rate of qualified products which obeys continuous distribution and the rate of efficient rework which obeys discrete distribution. The validity of the model is tested and the relevant law is obtained by numerical examples. The sensitivity about the mean and standard deviation of the rate of qualified products is analyzed. c)For the multi-stage production system, it models, solves and makes optimal decisions about the problem of planning input quantities and corresponding costs while considering the qualified rate of each stage is constant, subjecting to random discrete distribution and continuous distribution. The theoretical derivation and numerical examples are carried out and some relevant conclusions are drawn.
Fourth, for the another important factor that affects the MTO/MOS organization mode——the complex change about the order delivery,the decision of the optimal order date before input and the guaranteed delivery after input and makespan prediction is studied, the details are showed as follow:a)For the time decision of the materials order,the eight kinds of situation are considered that correspond to the types of raw materials one or more,the makespan is determined or random and whether or not to consider rework., the optimal models are established, analyzed,and solved respectively and the models are applied and tested through numerical analysis. b)After materials supplying and the other production preparation,the orders would be arranged to go to production. For the factors affecting the makespan,it is predicted based on statistical analysis,the interval about prediction is modeled and the numerical simulation is taken, the sensitivity analysis about the mean of makespan is carried out and the measures about controlling the makespan influencing factors are proposed. c) The custom demand delivery model is established according to some assumption and the model of guaranteed delivery and price decision is determined,the numerical example is going on at last.
The full-text is studied closely around the four core performances(cost, quality, quantity, delivery time) of the MTO/MOS.That is:the first part is the basic theoretical research and plays a general role about the full text. The second part plays a connecting role,while the third, fourth part has a strong correlation with the front parts.
The study is sponsored by the National Nature Science Foundation.(Name:Research about optimization and organization of the Manual Operation System under the mode of Make-to-Order (MTO/MOS), No:70971026).
本文以我国中小型制造企业MTO/MOS实际问题为导向,把实践问题总结、提炼并归纳为理论问题,研究和探索适应订单式生产环境的MOS组织和管理模式,建立针对订单需求量和交货期的计划决策模型,为降低我国中小制造企业生产运营成本、提升其竞争力并有效应对客户需求提供理论和方法支持。具体内容如下：
一、以“一线员工”为自治实体的MOS自组织、自适应机理及状态演化研究：分析MTO运作模式下MOS的概念、特点、外部环境、构成要素、内部关系、结构、功能及自组织特性,探讨MTO/MOS订单要求及任务的复杂变化、系统绩效或目标、一线员工状态变量、控制参数及随机扰动因素,以此为基础构建MTO/MOS自组织、自适应机理,对系统目标、员工状态、控制参数及随机扰动因素的内部关系及相互作用进行解析。以上述机理为基础,建立基于协同动力学的MOS一线员工行为状态演化模型,通过序参量分析及对模型的求解,得出随机涨落力为零时的MOS不稳定态及稳定态解,并对解的实际意义进行了说明,在此基础上分析MOS达到及维持稳定态所需的条件。
二、明确了MTO/MOS自组织、自适应运作机理及状态演化规律后,进一步研究影响MOS员工状态的控制参数之一——组织模式。当订单品种、任务量(即计划投产量)及交货期等复杂变化时,分析并构建基于自组织、自适应机理的动态组织模式。具体内容是：分析MTO/MOS组织模式的影响因素、特点及表现形式,计算各静态作业模式计划期内的产量并予以比较,画出动态组织模式下基于新订单任务、生产进度失衡及紧急插单任务三种情形的流程图,并介绍了MTO/MOS实施动态组织模式的原则及条件。基于员工的能动性及多技能,采用多Agent建模的方法对MOS动态组织模式的机制和体系进行研究,提出了协调Agent重组Agent、任务Agent、虚拟工作中心Agent、员工Agent的概念,在自治与协调机制下,建立了基于多Agent的MTO/MOS动态组织模式控制架构图,在架构图的基础上分析了各Agent的运作关系及功能。
三、由二可知,订单任务量的复杂变化是影响MOS动态组织模式的因素之一,而任务量即针对订单需求量的计划投产量。考虑在随机合格品率、质量学习率、不确定返工有效率等条件下,分别对单阶段及多生产阶段下的MTO/MOS最优计划投产量进行决策。具体内容是：一)在生产实际问题描述的基础上,建立了仅考虑随机合格品率及综合考虑质量学习率与合格品率的单生产阶段计划投产量模型,通过算例分析对模型进行应用和验证,并对合格品率均值及标准差、初始不合格概率及质量学习系数进行敏感性分析,得出有关结论。二)综合考虑当合格品率服从连续随机分布及返工有效率服从离散随机分布时,对单阶段计划投产量进行建模及优化决策。通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性、得出了相关规律,并对合格品率均值及标准差进行了敏感性分析。三)针对多阶段生产系统,考虑当各阶段的合格率分别为常数、服从离散随机分布、服从连续随机分布时,对其计划投产量及生产成本进行建模、求解及优化决策,并进行了理论推导及算例分析,得出了有关结论。
四、针对影响MTO/MOS组织模式的另一重要因素——订单交货期复杂变化,对正式投产前的最佳订购日期及正式投产后的完工期预测及最优承诺交货期决策进行研究,具体内容如下：一)对于物料订购时间决策,考虑原材料订购种类为一种或多种、完工期确定或随机及是否考虑返工的八种情形,对每种情形建立了模型,并主要采用古典数学方法中的极值法、拉格朗日乘子法、内点障碍罚函数法等方法对模型进行分析及求解,通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性和适用性。二)当物料供应及生产准备工作完成后,将对订单安排生产。针对影响完工期的各类因素,基于统计分析对完工期进行预测,建立区间预测模型、进行数值仿真,并对完工期均值进行敏感性分析,提出了控制完工期影响因素的措施。三)依据有关假设建立客户要求交货期模型,在相关原则指导下,确立生产企业承诺交货期及价格决策模型,并进行了算例分析。
全文紧紧围绕MTO/MOS的四大核心绩效(成本、质量、数量、交货期)进行研究,其中第一部分内容为基础理论研究,总领全文,第二部分内容起着承上启下的作用,三、四部分内容与一、二部分内容相辅相成。
本课题的研究得到国家自然科学基金(名称：订单式生产人工作业系统(MTO/MOS)组织与优化研究,编号：70971026)的资助。
Since our country began to reform and open in1978,the number of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMMEs) has been increasing and the size of them has been expanding,there is no doubt that the SMMEs have become the one of the the key forces which promote the national economy rapidly develop and solve the problem of social employment.Under the domestic and international market environment of increasingly fierce competition and complex demands,Make To Order(MTO) has become the main operation mode of the SMMEs that effectively respond to market risk and enhance competitiveness,while the Manual Operation System (MOS) has become the main structure mode of the SMMEs production system that can lower production costs, improve system flexibility and meet the customer demands. However,as the global financial crisis continuing to spread and the international politics having an adverse impact on the economy,the overall situation of China's export trade is grim,and the needs tends to be more custom,complex and rapidly delivery.Therefore,the enterprises have the great pressure to accelerate product innovation, shorten product cycle and improve the operation management.Technology innovation and rapidly changing market also makes the more intense competition in the same industry,Coupled with the realty of domestic recruitment difficulties, rising labor costs and the rising resource prices and the economical problems of RMB exchange rate going up and currency expansion,the SMMEs in CHINA is facing unprecedented challenges about the survival and development.From the point of the internal operations, due to a number of factors, there are many problems in the SMMEs.
As the actual problems of the MTO/MOS in SMMEs are oriented,summarized and refined as theoretical issues,the paper researches and explores the MOS organization and management mode which adapts to the environment of MTO,and the models of plan decision-making concerning order demands and delivery are established. The following research supports SMMEs in theories and methods that can reduce the operating costs,enhance their competitiveness and respond effectively to customer needs. The specific contents are displayed as follows:
First,study about the mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive and the state of evolution in MOS that the frontline employees are viewed as autonomous entities:the concept,features,external environment,elements,internal relations, structure, function and self-organizing characteristic of MOS is analyzed under MTO,and the order requirements, the complex changes of tasks,system performance or goals,state variables of employees,control parameters and random disturbance factors are explored about MTO/MOS.Then,the mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive bout MTO/MOS is constructed based on the above contents,moreover, the internal relations and interactions about the system goals, employees state, control parameters and random disturbance factors are described based on the mechanism,the model about the state evolution of the employees' behavior is established as the theory of collaborative dynamics being applied. The unstable state and stable state solution is obtained by the order parameter analysis and solution of the model when the random fluctuation force is zero. The practical significance of the solutions is explained and conditions that the MOS achieves and maintains a desired steady state are given.
Second,after the operation mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive and the discipline of state evolution about MTO/MOS is cleared, the organization mode,which is one of the control parameters that affect the state of the MOS staff,is further studied. When the variety,tasks (that is the planning input) and the delivery of the orders change intricately,according to the mechanism of self-organization and self-adaptive,the dynamic organization mode is analyzed and built.The detail is illustrated as follows:the influencing factors, characteristics and the manifestation styles of the organization mode about MTO/MOS are analyzed,the quantities in the same period about every static operation mode are calculated and compared,and the flow charts about three dynamic organization modes based on new order tasks, imbalance in the schedule and emergency plugging new orders are drawn.The principles and conditions that the MTO/MOS carried out the dynamic organization mode are described.Based on the employee's initiative and multi-skilled,the mechanism and system about the MOS dynamic organization mode is studied by using the method of Multi-Agent, and the concepts of Coordination Agent,Reconfiguration Agent,Task Agent, Virtual Work Center Agent and Employee Agent are proposed. According to the mechanism of autonomous and coordination,the control architecture chart about the MTO/MOS dynamic organization mode is established based on Multi-Agent. The relations and functions of each Agent are explained on the basis of the above chart.
Third,from the above we know that the complexity of the amount of task change is one of the factors influencing the MOS dynamic organization mode,while the task amount is the planning input. As the random rate of qualified products,the quality learning rate and the uncertain rate of efficient rework is considered,the decisions of optimal planning input are made respectively for the single-stage and multi-stage of production.The specifics are displayed as follows:a)After the description of actual problems,the model about planning input yields that only considering the random rate of qualified products is built for the single stage,the model is applied and tested through a numerical example. The sensitivity about the mean and standard deviation of the rate of qualified products, the probability of the initial unqualified product and the learning coefficient is analyzed, some relevant conclusions are drawn,b) It models and makes optimal decisions about the planning input yields for the single production stage while comprehensively considering the rate of qualified products which obeys continuous distribution and the rate of efficient rework which obeys discrete distribution. The validity of the model is tested and the relevant law is obtained by numerical examples. The sensitivity about the mean and standard deviation of the rate of qualified products is analyzed. c)For the multi-stage production system, it models, solves and makes optimal decisions about the problem of planning input quantities and corresponding costs while considering the qualified rate of each stage is constant, subjecting to random discrete distribution and continuous distribution. The theoretical derivation and numerical examples are carried out and some relevant conclusions are drawn.
Fourth, for the another important factor that affects the MTO/MOS organization mode——the complex change about the order delivery,the decision of the optimal order date before input and the guaranteed delivery after input and makespan prediction is studied, the details are showed as follow:a)For the time decision of the materials order,the eight kinds of situation are considered that correspond to the types of raw materials one or more,the makespan is determined or random and whether or not to consider rework., the optimal models are established, analyzed,and solved respectively and the models are applied and tested through numerical analysis. b)After materials supplying and the other production preparation,the orders would be arranged to go to production. For the factors affecting the makespan,it is predicted based on statistical analysis,the interval about prediction is modeled and the numerical simulation is taken, the sensitivity analysis about the mean of makespan is carried out and the measures about controlling the makespan influencing factors are proposed. c) The custom demand delivery model is established according to some assumption and the model of guaranteed delivery and price decision is determined,the numerical example is going on at last.
The full-text is studied closely around the four core performances(cost, quality, quantity, delivery time) of the MTO/MOS.That is:the first part is the basic theoretical research and plays a general role about the full text. The second part plays a connecting role,while the third, fourth part has a strong correlation with the front parts.
The study is sponsored by the National Nature Science Foundation.(Name:Research about optimization and organization of the Manual Operation System under the mode of Make-to-Order (MTO/MOS), No:70971026).
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