电煤供应链碳排放过程及测度研究
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摘要
摘要：2009年哥本哈根世界气候大会上,我国承诺到2020年单位GDP能耗比2005年降低40%-45%,并以问责制的形式强制执行。为了将国家级的约束性指标分解到各个行业和各个地区,企业层面的碳排放测度方法及减排影响评估应是首先要解决的问题。
本文以电煤供应链直接碳排放为研究对象,全面综述了电煤供应链、电煤供应链碳排放过程、测度方法及指标等研究现状；提炼出电煤供应链成员企业碳排放的计量方法；提出了成本-收益双向指标的企业碳强度和脱钩弹性测度方法,论证其有效性；构建了电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,再现了电煤供应链碳排放源、碳排放量及其与相应的成本-收益的关系,既解决企业碳排放测度方法的操作性,又可用于分析多种情景对碳排放测度指标及企业经济性的影响,可实现对电煤供应链减排给企业成本-收益带来的影响的动态监控,利于决策者制定减排对策。主要贡献如下：
1.界定了煤炭供应链及电煤供应链的概念、内涵
目前,煤炭供应链定义有煤炭企业供应链、煤炭行业供应链、煤炭供应链等,电煤供应链定义有煤电链、煤电产业链、电煤供应链等,并未统一。参考利丰集团及学者们对供应链的定义方法,给出了煤炭供应链和电煤供应链的概念,分析了概念的内涵(包括服务内容、边界和研究方法)及基本结构。此外,特别指出电煤供应链不应包括勘探环节及原因。
2.提炼出电煤供应链各环节碳排放的计量方法
电煤供应链包括煤炭生产、运输、消费三个环节,重点碳排放源的碳排放量可被较为准确的计量,但目前碳排放计量方法较多,核算标准有必要统一。
生产环节煤层气排放的计量,若煤层气抽采统计数据完备,宜采用分源法,否则可依据《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》(简称"2006IPCC青单指南”),将煤层气与煤炭产量挂钩的方法计算。
运输环节CO2的计量,由于电煤运输网络有“三定”的特点(服务对象确定、主要结点确定、主要运输方式确定),宜采用“经验公式+统计分析+'2006IPCC清单指南’”的方法,其中以经验公式确定电煤调运量,以统计分析方法确定三种运输方式(铁路、公路、水路)的占比,以"2006IPCC清单指南”确定碳排放因子。
消费环节CO2的计量,若电厂脱硫装置排放数据完备,宜采用实测法,否则可采用排放系数法,依照锅炉效率及电煤碳排放系数计算。
3.提出了成本-收益双向指标的企业碳排放测度方法,并论证了方法的有效性
(1)近年来,以博弈论方法研究中央政府、地方政府、企业三者减排目标的文献较多,对当前研究成果的综述表明：在减排目标上地方政府和企业的利益具有较强的一致性,与中央政府则相对处于对立面；中央政府关注节能减排的效果,并采取关闭、罚款、停水停电等众多手段执行减排政策；地方政府更关注减排的影响,包括地方政府的经济增长,财政收入水平,地区人口的就业水平及地区稳定性；企业更关注减排对生产的影响,尤其对成本和收益的影响。
(2)借鉴脱钩理论、投入-产出理论、碳强度概念,结合碳排放相关的成本-收益核算方法,提出了企业碳强度和脱钩测度方法。重点对电煤供应链成员企业碳排放相关的成本和收入构成进行分析,其中成本分析包括煤炭生产成本(不含电力)、煤层气发电成本、碳捕集和封存成本,收入分析包括煤层气发电收入、碳捕集和封存收入。以近年来我国电煤生产、运输、消费企业大量的实际数据,验证了测度方法的有效性,结果表明：
①电煤生产环节碳强度呈上升趋势,与煤层气排空量密切相关；成本脱钩弹性呈强负脱钩,原因是煤层气排空惩罚机制缺乏,煤层气排空与成本关联机制尚未建立；收入脱钩弹性呈扩张负脱钩,碳排放视角的解释是煤炭企业盈利能力增加是以煤层气排空为代价。
②电煤运输环节碳强度横向比较结果表明,电煤铁路运输碳强度远小于公路和水路运输方式,水路运输碳强度小于公路运输；公路收入脱钩弹性无明显规律,水路收入脱钩弹性呈脱钩状态。研究结果与电煤公路运输企业分散,节能减排管理薄弱,减排成效不明显,及水运领域减排取得卓越成效的现状吻合。
③电煤消费环节碳强度呈下降趋势,其中收入碳强度下降趋势较快,原因与发电煤耗率下降、电价提高密切相关；成本碳强度下降趋势较缓,原因是电煤价格上涨幅度过大,平抑了发电煤耗率下降的减排效果。成本脱钩弹性呈弱负脱钩,属不可持续状态,亟需国家出台相关政策来缓解；收入脱钩弹性呈强脱钩的良性状态。
该部分研究成果证明了成本-收益双向指标的企业碳强度和脱钩弹性测度方法的有效性。
4.构建了电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,并进行了实证研究
(1)界定了电煤供应链整体投入-产出的边界,将煤炭企业电煤销售收入和运输企业运输收入内化为供应链内部收益；给出了模型建立的假设条件,包括电煤供应链收入假设、成本假设、碳排放假设；借助系统动力学方法,对碳排放计量方法、成本-收益核算方法、碳排放测度方法进行集成,构建了电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,再现了电煤供应链碳排放源、排放量及与其对应的成本-收益的相互关系及影响程度,解决了企业碳排放测度方法的操作性问题,也为后续实际应用奠定基础。
(2)以晋城煤业集团寺河煤矿-大唐耒阳电厂电煤供应链为例,采用电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,分析了多种情景对碳排放测度指标及企业经济性的影响,并给出了针对性建议。
实证研究结果表明：
①电煤供应链的减排应以提高煤层气利用率和降低火电厂发电煤耗率为主。若煤层气利用率达到典型电煤供应链水平,则可为供应链提供70%的减排潜力；若发电煤耗率年下降0.29g/kwh和0.45g/kwh,电煤供应链可实现到2020年单位GDP能耗降低40%和45%的目标。
②当前还不宜采用碳捕集和封存技术。在无国家补贴政策情况下,碳捕集和封存会使电煤供应链成本脱钩弹性和收入脱钩弹性均处于衰退脱钩状态。典型电煤供应链承受的最大捕集量为55万吨/年,若国家给火电企业发电补贴为0.028元/kwh,可弥补全部碳捕集和封存成本,此时碳强度下降幅度为5.03%。
③建立煤层气排空惩罚机制,健全煤层气补贴发放监督机制。目前,山西省1元/m3煤层气排空惩罚成本过低,典型电煤供应链建议煤层气惩罚成本不超过6元/m3。当前煤层气电厂国家补贴额度较为恰当,可使煤层气发电企业达到国际上的平均利润水平,重点应是保障补贴的发放。
总的来说,本文比较深入的研究了电煤供应链碳排放过程及测度方法,论证了测度方法的有效性和可操作性,既在方法论上完善了企业碳排放测度方法,又在应用层面明确了电煤供应链减排的重点对象、重要环节及其承担的角色,拓展了碳减排的研究范围,为国家级减排指标向行业／企业层面减排指标的细分作了有益的探索和尝试。模型的运行结果还可为国家制定煤炭、电力等领域节能减排发展战略提供参考。
ABSTRACT:At Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in2009, Chinese government promised that China's energy consumption per unit of GDP would be reduced by40%-45%by2020in relation to2005levels. And this target will be enforced by accountability system. In order to decompose the national binding index into all industry and regions, it is essential to establish carbon emissions measurement method and impact assessment on carbon emissions at enterprise level.
In the dissertation, the direct carbon emissions of electric-coal supply chain (ECSC) were systematically studied. A comprehensive literature review was made on the ECSC, including the carbon emissions process, measurement methods, and indicators. The carbon emissions accounting methods of ECSC were reconstructed and a new measurement method for carbon emissions was proposed and its effectiveness was demonstrated. The carbon emissions process simulation model (CEPS) of the ECSC was established, which has solved the operation issue of this method.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows:
1. The concepts and connotations of the coal supply chain (CSC) and the ECSC were defined.
Currently, the definition of CSC refers to the coal enterprises supply chain, the coal industry supply chain, and the coal supply chain. The definition of ECSC refers to the coal-power chain, the coal-power industry chain, and the electric-coal supply chain. Based on the definitions of supply chain by Li&Fung Group and other scholars, the definitions of CSC and ECSC were given, and the connotations (their businesses, research borders, and methods) and the basic structure were analyzed. In addition, this paper specifically pointed out that the ECSC should not include the exploration sectors and its causes.
2. The carbon emissions accounting methods of the ECSC were reconstructed.
The ECSC includes coal production, transportation, and consumption. There are many carbon emissions accounting methods, so it is necessary to unify the carbon emissions accounting methods.
(1)With regard to the accounting of coalbed methane (CBM) release in the production process, if the statistical data of CBM were complete, the sub-source method can be used. Otherwise, the2006IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (short for2006IPCC Inventories) can be applied to calculate CBM and coal yield simultaneously.
(2)Since the electric-coal transportation network has the characteristics of defined clients, defined major nodes, and defined transportation modes, the empirical formula can be used together with statistical analysis and the "2006IPCC Inventories" method. Empirical formula determines the amount of electric-coal transportation volume, statistical analysis determines the proportions of the three types of transportation (railway, road, and waterway), and the "2006IPCC Inventories" determines the carbon emissions factors.
(3)In the consumption process, the actual measurement method can be used to estimate the CO2emissions supposed that the emission data of the desulphurization device in the coal-fired power plant is complete. Otherwise, carbon emissions coefficient method would be better in estimation of CO2emissions based on boiler efficiency and carbon emissions factor of electric-coal.
3. A carbon emissions measurement method at the industry or enterprise level was proposed, and its effectiveness was demonstrated.
(1)In recent years, many studies have given insight into the different carbon emissions reduction targets of central government, local governments, and enterprises based on game theory. The literature review showed that local governments and enterprises have a strong consistency in the interests of carbon emissions reduction, but opposite to the central government. The causes are that the central government focused on the effects of carbon emissions reduction, and enforced carbon emissions reduction policies by many ways, including production suspension, fines, or cutting off water and electricity supply. The local governments gave more concerns to the impact of carbon emissions reduction, including the economic growth of the local government, financial income level, employment rate of the population in the region, and regional stability. Enterprises were more concerned about the impact of carbon emissions reduction on the production, especially the profit levels.
(2)The carbon intensity and decoupling method at the industry or enterprise level was proposed based on the input-output theory, decoupling theory, the concept of carbon intensity, as well as related cost-revenue accounting methods. The composition of the costs and revenues of the ECSC enterprises was systematically analyzed, especially these costs of the coal production process (excluding electricity cost), CBM power plant, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and these revenues of CBM power plant and CCS. Moreover, the effectiveness of the method was further verified based on the data of recent years from coal production, transportation, and consumption of enterprises in China. The results showed that:
①Carbon intensity is on the rise in electric-coal production, closely related to the amount of CBM release. The cost elasticity showed a strong negative decoupling due to the lack of punishment mechanism, and the CBM release and costs associated mechanisms have not yet been established. Revenue elasticity is expansive negative decoupling, because the profit increase of the coal enterprises is at the cost of CBM release from a carbon emissions perspective.
②The horizontal comparison results of carbon intensity in electric-coal transport process showed that carbon intensity of electric-coal rail transport is far less than the road and waterway transportation, and carbon intensity of waterway transport is less than road transport. The pattern of road revenue elasticity is not obvious, whereas waterway revenue elasticity is obviously decoupled. These results showed that the electric-coal transport enterprises by road are dispersed greatly, and deficient in the management of carbon emissions reduction, thus the effect of carbon emissions reduction wasn't obvious. However, the effect of emissions reduction by water transportation is remarkable, which is in accordance to the current status.
③Carbon intensity in electric-coal consumption declines, among which revenue carbon intensity declines faster due to the decline in coal consumption rate (CCR) and the increase in the tariff, and the cost carbon intensity is of a more moderate downward trend, because the increase in electric-coal price is so fast that the reduction advantage of CCR cannot be gained. Cost elasticity is weak negative decoupling, which is not a sustainable state. Therefore, policies should be formulated urgently. Revenue elasticity is in a benign state of strong decoupling.
The results of this part have proven the effectiveness and practicality of carbon intensity and decoupling method at the industry or enterprise level.
4. The CEPS of the ECSC was established, and an empirical study was carried out.
(1)The input-output boundary of the ECSC were defined, and coal sales revenue and transportation revenue were internalized as the revenue of the supply chain. Sufficient assumptions of the CEPS were provided, including the ECSC's revenue assumptions, cost assumptions, and carbon emissions assumptions. The system dynamics (SD) was used to construct the CEPS of the ECSC, integrating carbon emissions accounting methods, cost-revenue accounting methods, and carbon emissions measurement methods at the industry or enterprise level. This model has solved the operability of carbon emissions measurement method.
(2)Taking the ECSC of Sihe Mine in Jincheng Coal Industry Group-Datang Leiyang power plant as an example, a variety of scenarios were simulated to examine the effect of different scenarios on the measurement indicators, and specific recommendations were put forward. The results showed that:
①The emissions reduction of the ECSC should give priority to the improvement of CBM utilization rate and reduction of CCR in the power plant. If the CBM utilization rate reached the case level, approximately70%of the emissions reduction potential of the ECSC can be achieved. If the CCR of the ECSC declined0.29g/kwh and0.45g/kwh annually, the target that China's energy consumption per unit of GDP can be reduced by40%-45%by2020can be achieved.
②Currently, it is not suitable to adopt CCS in carbon emissions reduction of ECSC. Without the subsidies from the nation, the cost of CCS will make the cost elasticity and revenue elasticity in a recessive decoupling. The study case can withstand the maximum carbon emissions reduction capacity of550,000tons per year. If the subsidy of￥0.028per kwh can be provided to thermal power enterprises by our country, all the costs associated with CCS can be compensated. In this circumstance, carbon intensity will declines5.03%.
③It is suggests that China should establish the punishment mechanisms of CBM release, and improve the supervision mechanisms of CBM subsidy payment. Currently, the penalty cost of CBM release in Shanxi Province is￥1.00per cubic meter, which is too low. The study case indicated that the penalty cost of CBM should not be more than￥6.00per cubic meter. The current amount of subsidy to CBM power plant is enough for power plants of CBM to reach the international average profits. The key issue is to ensure the granting of the subsidy.
In conclusion, the carbon emissions process and measurement method of the ECSC were studied deeply, and its effectiveness and feasibility were demonstrated in the dissertation, which has filled the blank of CEPS at the industry or enterprise level in methodology, and illustrated the key targets of carbon emissions reduction, important links, and their important roles at the application level. This study has greatly expanded the research scope of carbon emissions reduction, and made a useful try in subdividing the national emissions reduction targets into industry or enterprise emissions reduction targets.In addition, the simulation results of the CEPS can also provide a reference for the country to formulate development strategies of energy saving and emissions reduction in such fields as coal and electricity.
本文以电煤供应链直接碳排放为研究对象,全面综述了电煤供应链、电煤供应链碳排放过程、测度方法及指标等研究现状；提炼出电煤供应链成员企业碳排放的计量方法；提出了成本-收益双向指标的企业碳强度和脱钩弹性测度方法,论证其有效性；构建了电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,再现了电煤供应链碳排放源、碳排放量及其与相应的成本-收益的关系,既解决企业碳排放测度方法的操作性,又可用于分析多种情景对碳排放测度指标及企业经济性的影响,可实现对电煤供应链减排给企业成本-收益带来的影响的动态监控,利于决策者制定减排对策。主要贡献如下：
1.界定了煤炭供应链及电煤供应链的概念、内涵
目前,煤炭供应链定义有煤炭企业供应链、煤炭行业供应链、煤炭供应链等,电煤供应链定义有煤电链、煤电产业链、电煤供应链等,并未统一。参考利丰集团及学者们对供应链的定义方法,给出了煤炭供应链和电煤供应链的概念,分析了概念的内涵(包括服务内容、边界和研究方法)及基本结构。此外,特别指出电煤供应链不应包括勘探环节及原因。
2.提炼出电煤供应链各环节碳排放的计量方法
电煤供应链包括煤炭生产、运输、消费三个环节,重点碳排放源的碳排放量可被较为准确的计量,但目前碳排放计量方法较多,核算标准有必要统一。
生产环节煤层气排放的计量,若煤层气抽采统计数据完备,宜采用分源法,否则可依据《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》(简称"2006IPCC青单指南”),将煤层气与煤炭产量挂钩的方法计算。
运输环节CO2的计量,由于电煤运输网络有“三定”的特点(服务对象确定、主要结点确定、主要运输方式确定),宜采用“经验公式+统计分析+'2006IPCC清单指南’”的方法,其中以经验公式确定电煤调运量,以统计分析方法确定三种运输方式(铁路、公路、水路)的占比,以"2006IPCC清单指南”确定碳排放因子。
消费环节CO2的计量,若电厂脱硫装置排放数据完备,宜采用实测法,否则可采用排放系数法,依照锅炉效率及电煤碳排放系数计算。
3.提出了成本-收益双向指标的企业碳排放测度方法,并论证了方法的有效性
(1)近年来,以博弈论方法研究中央政府、地方政府、企业三者减排目标的文献较多,对当前研究成果的综述表明：在减排目标上地方政府和企业的利益具有较强的一致性,与中央政府则相对处于对立面；中央政府关注节能减排的效果,并采取关闭、罚款、停水停电等众多手段执行减排政策；地方政府更关注减排的影响,包括地方政府的经济增长,财政收入水平,地区人口的就业水平及地区稳定性；企业更关注减排对生产的影响,尤其对成本和收益的影响。
(2)借鉴脱钩理论、投入-产出理论、碳强度概念,结合碳排放相关的成本-收益核算方法,提出了企业碳强度和脱钩测度方法。重点对电煤供应链成员企业碳排放相关的成本和收入构成进行分析,其中成本分析包括煤炭生产成本(不含电力)、煤层气发电成本、碳捕集和封存成本,收入分析包括煤层气发电收入、碳捕集和封存收入。以近年来我国电煤生产、运输、消费企业大量的实际数据,验证了测度方法的有效性,结果表明：
①电煤生产环节碳强度呈上升趋势,与煤层气排空量密切相关；成本脱钩弹性呈强负脱钩,原因是煤层气排空惩罚机制缺乏,煤层气排空与成本关联机制尚未建立；收入脱钩弹性呈扩张负脱钩,碳排放视角的解释是煤炭企业盈利能力增加是以煤层气排空为代价。
②电煤运输环节碳强度横向比较结果表明,电煤铁路运输碳强度远小于公路和水路运输方式,水路运输碳强度小于公路运输；公路收入脱钩弹性无明显规律,水路收入脱钩弹性呈脱钩状态。研究结果与电煤公路运输企业分散,节能减排管理薄弱,减排成效不明显,及水运领域减排取得卓越成效的现状吻合。
③电煤消费环节碳强度呈下降趋势,其中收入碳强度下降趋势较快,原因与发电煤耗率下降、电价提高密切相关；成本碳强度下降趋势较缓,原因是电煤价格上涨幅度过大,平抑了发电煤耗率下降的减排效果。成本脱钩弹性呈弱负脱钩,属不可持续状态,亟需国家出台相关政策来缓解；收入脱钩弹性呈强脱钩的良性状态。
该部分研究成果证明了成本-收益双向指标的企业碳强度和脱钩弹性测度方法的有效性。
4.构建了电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,并进行了实证研究
(1)界定了电煤供应链整体投入-产出的边界,将煤炭企业电煤销售收入和运输企业运输收入内化为供应链内部收益；给出了模型建立的假设条件,包括电煤供应链收入假设、成本假设、碳排放假设；借助系统动力学方法,对碳排放计量方法、成本-收益核算方法、碳排放测度方法进行集成,构建了电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,再现了电煤供应链碳排放源、排放量及与其对应的成本-收益的相互关系及影响程度,解决了企业碳排放测度方法的操作性问题,也为后续实际应用奠定基础。
(2)以晋城煤业集团寺河煤矿-大唐耒阳电厂电煤供应链为例,采用电煤供应链碳排放全过程仿真模型,分析了多种情景对碳排放测度指标及企业经济性的影响,并给出了针对性建议。
实证研究结果表明：
①电煤供应链的减排应以提高煤层气利用率和降低火电厂发电煤耗率为主。若煤层气利用率达到典型电煤供应链水平,则可为供应链提供70%的减排潜力；若发电煤耗率年下降0.29g/kwh和0.45g/kwh,电煤供应链可实现到2020年单位GDP能耗降低40%和45%的目标。
②当前还不宜采用碳捕集和封存技术。在无国家补贴政策情况下,碳捕集和封存会使电煤供应链成本脱钩弹性和收入脱钩弹性均处于衰退脱钩状态。典型电煤供应链承受的最大捕集量为55万吨/年,若国家给火电企业发电补贴为0.028元/kwh,可弥补全部碳捕集和封存成本,此时碳强度下降幅度为5.03%。
③建立煤层气排空惩罚机制,健全煤层气补贴发放监督机制。目前,山西省1元/m3煤层气排空惩罚成本过低,典型电煤供应链建议煤层气惩罚成本不超过6元/m3。当前煤层气电厂国家补贴额度较为恰当,可使煤层气发电企业达到国际上的平均利润水平,重点应是保障补贴的发放。
总的来说,本文比较深入的研究了电煤供应链碳排放过程及测度方法,论证了测度方法的有效性和可操作性,既在方法论上完善了企业碳排放测度方法,又在应用层面明确了电煤供应链减排的重点对象、重要环节及其承担的角色,拓展了碳减排的研究范围,为国家级减排指标向行业／企业层面减排指标的细分作了有益的探索和尝试。模型的运行结果还可为国家制定煤炭、电力等领域节能减排发展战略提供参考。
ABSTRACT:At Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in2009, Chinese government promised that China's energy consumption per unit of GDP would be reduced by40%-45%by2020in relation to2005levels. And this target will be enforced by accountability system. In order to decompose the national binding index into all industry and regions, it is essential to establish carbon emissions measurement method and impact assessment on carbon emissions at enterprise level.
In the dissertation, the direct carbon emissions of electric-coal supply chain (ECSC) were systematically studied. A comprehensive literature review was made on the ECSC, including the carbon emissions process, measurement methods, and indicators. The carbon emissions accounting methods of ECSC were reconstructed and a new measurement method for carbon emissions was proposed and its effectiveness was demonstrated. The carbon emissions process simulation model (CEPS) of the ECSC was established, which has solved the operation issue of this method.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows:
1. The concepts and connotations of the coal supply chain (CSC) and the ECSC were defined.
Currently, the definition of CSC refers to the coal enterprises supply chain, the coal industry supply chain, and the coal supply chain. The definition of ECSC refers to the coal-power chain, the coal-power industry chain, and the electric-coal supply chain. Based on the definitions of supply chain by Li&Fung Group and other scholars, the definitions of CSC and ECSC were given, and the connotations (their businesses, research borders, and methods) and the basic structure were analyzed. In addition, this paper specifically pointed out that the ECSC should not include the exploration sectors and its causes.
2. The carbon emissions accounting methods of the ECSC were reconstructed.
The ECSC includes coal production, transportation, and consumption. There are many carbon emissions accounting methods, so it is necessary to unify the carbon emissions accounting methods.
(1)With regard to the accounting of coalbed methane (CBM) release in the production process, if the statistical data of CBM were complete, the sub-source method can be used. Otherwise, the2006IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (short for2006IPCC Inventories) can be applied to calculate CBM and coal yield simultaneously.
(2)Since the electric-coal transportation network has the characteristics of defined clients, defined major nodes, and defined transportation modes, the empirical formula can be used together with statistical analysis and the "2006IPCC Inventories" method. Empirical formula determines the amount of electric-coal transportation volume, statistical analysis determines the proportions of the three types of transportation (railway, road, and waterway), and the "2006IPCC Inventories" determines the carbon emissions factors.
(3)In the consumption process, the actual measurement method can be used to estimate the CO2emissions supposed that the emission data of the desulphurization device in the coal-fired power plant is complete. Otherwise, carbon emissions coefficient method would be better in estimation of CO2emissions based on boiler efficiency and carbon emissions factor of electric-coal.
3. A carbon emissions measurement method at the industry or enterprise level was proposed, and its effectiveness was demonstrated.
(1)In recent years, many studies have given insight into the different carbon emissions reduction targets of central government, local governments, and enterprises based on game theory. The literature review showed that local governments and enterprises have a strong consistency in the interests of carbon emissions reduction, but opposite to the central government. The causes are that the central government focused on the effects of carbon emissions reduction, and enforced carbon emissions reduction policies by many ways, including production suspension, fines, or cutting off water and electricity supply. The local governments gave more concerns to the impact of carbon emissions reduction, including the economic growth of the local government, financial income level, employment rate of the population in the region, and regional stability. Enterprises were more concerned about the impact of carbon emissions reduction on the production, especially the profit levels.
(2)The carbon intensity and decoupling method at the industry or enterprise level was proposed based on the input-output theory, decoupling theory, the concept of carbon intensity, as well as related cost-revenue accounting methods. The composition of the costs and revenues of the ECSC enterprises was systematically analyzed, especially these costs of the coal production process (excluding electricity cost), CBM power plant, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and these revenues of CBM power plant and CCS. Moreover, the effectiveness of the method was further verified based on the data of recent years from coal production, transportation, and consumption of enterprises in China. The results showed that:
①Carbon intensity is on the rise in electric-coal production, closely related to the amount of CBM release. The cost elasticity showed a strong negative decoupling due to the lack of punishment mechanism, and the CBM release and costs associated mechanisms have not yet been established. Revenue elasticity is expansive negative decoupling, because the profit increase of the coal enterprises is at the cost of CBM release from a carbon emissions perspective.
②The horizontal comparison results of carbon intensity in electric-coal transport process showed that carbon intensity of electric-coal rail transport is far less than the road and waterway transportation, and carbon intensity of waterway transport is less than road transport. The pattern of road revenue elasticity is not obvious, whereas waterway revenue elasticity is obviously decoupled. These results showed that the electric-coal transport enterprises by road are dispersed greatly, and deficient in the management of carbon emissions reduction, thus the effect of carbon emissions reduction wasn't obvious. However, the effect of emissions reduction by water transportation is remarkable, which is in accordance to the current status.
③Carbon intensity in electric-coal consumption declines, among which revenue carbon intensity declines faster due to the decline in coal consumption rate (CCR) and the increase in the tariff, and the cost carbon intensity is of a more moderate downward trend, because the increase in electric-coal price is so fast that the reduction advantage of CCR cannot be gained. Cost elasticity is weak negative decoupling, which is not a sustainable state. Therefore, policies should be formulated urgently. Revenue elasticity is in a benign state of strong decoupling.
The results of this part have proven the effectiveness and practicality of carbon intensity and decoupling method at the industry or enterprise level.
4. The CEPS of the ECSC was established, and an empirical study was carried out.
(1)The input-output boundary of the ECSC were defined, and coal sales revenue and transportation revenue were internalized as the revenue of the supply chain. Sufficient assumptions of the CEPS were provided, including the ECSC's revenue assumptions, cost assumptions, and carbon emissions assumptions. The system dynamics (SD) was used to construct the CEPS of the ECSC, integrating carbon emissions accounting methods, cost-revenue accounting methods, and carbon emissions measurement methods at the industry or enterprise level. This model has solved the operability of carbon emissions measurement method.
(2)Taking the ECSC of Sihe Mine in Jincheng Coal Industry Group-Datang Leiyang power plant as an example, a variety of scenarios were simulated to examine the effect of different scenarios on the measurement indicators, and specific recommendations were put forward. The results showed that:
①The emissions reduction of the ECSC should give priority to the improvement of CBM utilization rate and reduction of CCR in the power plant. If the CBM utilization rate reached the case level, approximately70%of the emissions reduction potential of the ECSC can be achieved. If the CCR of the ECSC declined0.29g/kwh and0.45g/kwh annually, the target that China's energy consumption per unit of GDP can be reduced by40%-45%by2020can be achieved.
②Currently, it is not suitable to adopt CCS in carbon emissions reduction of ECSC. Without the subsidies from the nation, the cost of CCS will make the cost elasticity and revenue elasticity in a recessive decoupling. The study case can withstand the maximum carbon emissions reduction capacity of550,000tons per year. If the subsidy of￥0.028per kwh can be provided to thermal power enterprises by our country, all the costs associated with CCS can be compensated. In this circumstance, carbon intensity will declines5.03%.
③It is suggests that China should establish the punishment mechanisms of CBM release, and improve the supervision mechanisms of CBM subsidy payment. Currently, the penalty cost of CBM release in Shanxi Province is￥1.00per cubic meter, which is too low. The study case indicated that the penalty cost of CBM should not be more than￥6.00per cubic meter. The current amount of subsidy to CBM power plant is enough for power plants of CBM to reach the international average profits. The key issue is to ensure the granting of the subsidy.
In conclusion, the carbon emissions process and measurement method of the ECSC were studied deeply, and its effectiveness and feasibility were demonstrated in the dissertation, which has filled the blank of CEPS at the industry or enterprise level in methodology, and illustrated the key targets of carbon emissions reduction, important links, and their important roles at the application level. This study has greatly expanded the research scope of carbon emissions reduction, and made a useful try in subdividing the national emissions reduction targets into industry or enterprise emissions reduction targets.In addition, the simulation results of the CEPS can also provide a reference for the country to formulate development strategies of energy saving and emissions reduction in such fields as coal and electricity.
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