威海市生态用水及水资源合理配置研究
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摘要
本文首先收集了威海市的水资源、植被、土地利用、森林资源和水土保持等背景资料,对此进行合理整理和筛选,在分析与预测威海市水资源态势的基础上,讨论了生态用水和生态需水概念,并分析界定了威海市生态用水的组成,进而以植物蒸散理论、水量平衡理论等为基本依据,推算威海市林木耗水与需水系数,计算出林木生态用(需)水量、河道内生态需水量、水土保持生态需水量、湿地生态需水量以及城市生态需水量。在此基础上,进行统计分析,并采用生态用水系数Cu的概念对生态用水现状进行探讨,预测2010和2020的生态需水。在计算社会经济需水的基础上,界定了威海市水资源规划中需要配置的生态需水量,从而建立了考虑生态需水的水资源优化配置模型,生成多个水资配置方案,建立了基于模糊优选理论的水资源配置方案评价优选模型,以及评价指标体系对方案进行了评价及优选。
本文在界定威海市生态用水的基础上,首次全面计算和分析了威海市的生态用水及生态需水。在考虑生态需水与经济社会需水的基础上,提出水资源配置中应当首先界定需要配置的生态需水量,进而建立了考虑生态需水的水资源优化配置模型,并建立了方案评价指标体系及基于模糊优选理论的水资源配置方案评价优选模型,从而实现水资源配置方案的优化与选择。研究结果表明:
(1)①以1956～2000年降水量资料系列为基准,威海市五十年代、六十年代、七十年代降水量偏多,八十年代、九十年代降水量偏少。自1956年至2000年降水量有下降的趋势,六十年代降水量平均每年减少5.8mm,七十年代降水量平均每年减少6.2mm,八十年代降水量平均每年减少6.6mm,九十年代降水量平均每年减少9.2mm,减少量有逐年加大的趋势。总减少量约占1956～2000年多年平均降水量的36.5%。②地表水资源量的变化趋势与降水量的变化趋势基本相同,以1956～2000年径流量资料系列为基准,威海市五十年代、六十年代、七十年代径流量偏多,八十年代、九十年代径流量偏少。威海市径流量从六十年代起有下降的趋势,每年的减少量为5.2mm。水资源总量在减少,而用水量却在不断增加,供需矛盾更加突出。
(2)威海市现状生态用水总量为12.26×10~8m~3,在总的生态用水中,消耗性生态用水量为10.13×10~8m~3,其中降水消耗性生态用水量为7.54×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的61.3%;径流消耗性生态用水量为2.59×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的21.1%;而非消耗性生态用水量为2.13×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的17.3%。而在消耗性生态用水中,林木植被生态用水量为7.54×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的61.3%。可以说,威海市林木植被生态用水在总的现状生态用水中所占的比例最大,降水消耗性生态用是现状生态用水的主体。
(3) 2010年威海市总生态需水量为17.68×10~8m~3。在总生态需水量中,林木植被生态需水量为12.47×10~8m~3,占总生态需水量的70.5%;随着生态环境的改善,森林植被、城市绿化、湿地改造及恢复,水利事业发展等,生态需水量将进一步增大。2010年比现状增加了5.43×10~8m~3,2020年比现状增加了6.64×10~8m~3,生态需水量增幅最大的是林木植被生态需水量,分别增长了4.93×10~8m~3、5.95×10~8m~3,从预测的结果看,生态建设的规模适度。但在制定未来生态环境建设规划的同时,应首先进行威海市降水资源、水资源和生态用水的合理配置规划,否则生态建设用水和国民经济建设用水的矛盾会逐步暴露出来,结果必然影响生态建设规划的落实。
(4)①界定威海市需要在水资源规划中配置的生态需水主要为河流生态用(需)水、湿地(包括水库)生态用(需)水及城市绿地生态用(需)水。在水资源配置模型中可以作为决策变量或约束项来体现。②在引入规划的外调水、加大中水、海水利用后,2010、2020年威海市城镇需水仍难以得到满足。为了达到水资源供需平衡,只有调整并压缩农林灌溉用水:通过采用喷灌、微灌等节水灌溉措施,提高水的利用率;加大海水利用量和污水回用量这三种主要方案进行解决。
(5)威海市水资源可利用量受出境水量控制,水质污染严重,供水与用水矛盾日趋突出,若不采用应急方案,2010年与2020年水量基本都难以平衡,如考虑水质,则水资源短缺更为严重,局部地区会出现严重缺水。因此,一是加快多种新水源工程和水利设施改造建设,通过提、引、拦蓄等措施进一步稳定和增加可供水资源量,特别是完善胶东调水工程。二是建设节水型威海,通过节水型农业、节水型工业、节水型城乡生活、节水型生态环境建设及控制水质污染,提高中水利用等,合理配置水资源。
The situation of water resources,vegetation,land utilization,forest resources and the conservation of water and soil in Weihai city were studied in this thesis.According to the analysis of the situation of water resources in Weihai city,the constitution of the ecological water use were defined.Then the coefficient of water consumption and demand for forest and crop were calculated on the base of the theory of plant evapo-transpiration and water volume balance.The volume of ecological water demand for forest and crop,the watercourse,conservation of water and soil,the wetlands and the city were calculated.At the same time,the ecological water demand in 2010 and 2020 were predicted according to the statistical analysis of the present situation of ecological water use through Cu coefficient.After calculating the water demand of social economy,the optimal model of the allocation of water resources was established based on the Fuzzy Optimization Theory.The scheme of the allocation of water resources was evaluated and optimized using this model.The results showed that:
(1) The rainfall was abundant in Weihai city from 1950s to 1970s while it was less from 1980s to 1990s.The precipitation tendency was decreasing from 1956 to 2000.The rainfall decreased 5.8mm, 6.2mm,6.6mm,9.2mm annually in 1960s,1970s,1980s,1990s respectively and the annual volume of reduction of the rainfall was increasing year by year.The total volume of reduction of precipitation was as 36.5%of the average annual precipitation.The change of the erath surface water resources was similar to the precipitation.The surface runoff was much from 1950s to 1970s,while it was less in 1980s and 1990s.The amount of surface runoff had the drop tendency as 5.2mm per year from 1960s to 1990s.The contradiction of the water supply and demand was previous became the decreasing of water resources and the increasing of water demand.
(2) The total amount of present ecological water use was 12.26×10~8m~3 in Weihai city.The amount of consumptive ecological water use was 10.13×10~8m~3,while the amount of consumptive ecological water use from rainfall was 7.54×10~8m~3,which accounted for 61.3%of the total ecological water use. The amount of runoff consumptive ecological water use was 2.59×10~8m~3,which accounted for 21.1%of the total ecological water use.The amount of non-consumptive ecological water use was 2.13×10~8m~3, which accounted for 17.3%of the total ecological water use.7.54×10~8m~3 of the consumptive ecological water was used for vegetation and crops,which accounted for 61.3%of the total ecological water use. The volume of the ecological water use for vegetation and crops constituted the biggest portion of the total present ecological water use.The main part of the total present ecological water use was consumptive ecological water use from rainfall.
(3) It was predicted that the total amount of the ecological water demand would be 17.68×10~8m~3 in Weihai city in 2010.The amount of ecological water use of the vegetation and crops would be 12.47×10~8m~3,which accounted for 70.5%of the total ecological water use.With the improvement of ecological environment,such as the protection of the vegetation,the reforestation of the city,the transformation and the restoration of the wetland and the development of water conservancy,the ecological water demand would increase further.The amount of ecological water demand would increase 5.43×108m3 and6.64×10~8m~3.in 2010 and 2020 respectively.The amount of ecological water use of the vegetation and crops would increase 4.93×108m3 and 5.95×10~8m~3 in 2010 and 2020 respectively,which would increase more quickly than others.The scale of the ecological construction was moderate from the prediction.It was suggested that the reasonable plan of the allocation of the rainfall,the water resources and the ecological water use should be made to avoid the contradiction of the water consumption between ecological and economical construction.
(4) The ecological water demand included the ecological water demand and use of the rivers, wetlands(reservoir) and urban green land in Weihai city,which were incarnated as decision or restraint variables in the allocation model of water resources.It would be difficult to meet the water demand of the city after the supply of the external water,recycled water and the sea water in 2010 and 2020.In order to achieve the balance of water resources supply and demand,three measures,such as,adjusting the water use for farming and vegetation irrigation,improving the efficiency of water use through water saving irrigation,enhancing the use of the sea water and recycled water.
(5) The amount of the water resources available for use was controlled by the output water volume in Weihai city.As the contradiction between water supply and water use was more obvious and the water pollution was more serious than before,the balance between the output and input of water volume could not be maintained if the emergency plan was not adopted in 2010 and 2020.Water resource shortage would be a serious problem in some area if the water quality was concerned.Therefore,The result suggested that several measures should be taken to stabilize and increase the volume of water supply.Firstly,new water source project,water facilities construction,water conduction through dams and especially the water project of Jiaodong should be put in practice.Secondly,water saving technology should be used in agriculture,industry,ecological environment and ordinary life.Thirdly, the water pollution should be controlled effectively and the use of recycled water should be increased. Last,the water resources should be allocated reasonably.
本文在界定威海市生态用水的基础上,首次全面计算和分析了威海市的生态用水及生态需水。在考虑生态需水与经济社会需水的基础上,提出水资源配置中应当首先界定需要配置的生态需水量,进而建立了考虑生态需水的水资源优化配置模型,并建立了方案评价指标体系及基于模糊优选理论的水资源配置方案评价优选模型,从而实现水资源配置方案的优化与选择。研究结果表明:
(1)①以1956～2000年降水量资料系列为基准,威海市五十年代、六十年代、七十年代降水量偏多,八十年代、九十年代降水量偏少。自1956年至2000年降水量有下降的趋势,六十年代降水量平均每年减少5.8mm,七十年代降水量平均每年减少6.2mm,八十年代降水量平均每年减少6.6mm,九十年代降水量平均每年减少9.2mm,减少量有逐年加大的趋势。总减少量约占1956～2000年多年平均降水量的36.5%。②地表水资源量的变化趋势与降水量的变化趋势基本相同,以1956～2000年径流量资料系列为基准,威海市五十年代、六十年代、七十年代径流量偏多,八十年代、九十年代径流量偏少。威海市径流量从六十年代起有下降的趋势,每年的减少量为5.2mm。水资源总量在减少,而用水量却在不断增加,供需矛盾更加突出。
(2)威海市现状生态用水总量为12.26×10~8m~3,在总的生态用水中,消耗性生态用水量为10.13×10~8m~3,其中降水消耗性生态用水量为7.54×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的61.3%;径流消耗性生态用水量为2.59×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的21.1%;而非消耗性生态用水量为2.13×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的17.3%。而在消耗性生态用水中,林木植被生态用水量为7.54×10~8m~3,占生态用水总量的61.3%。可以说,威海市林木植被生态用水在总的现状生态用水中所占的比例最大,降水消耗性生态用是现状生态用水的主体。
(3) 2010年威海市总生态需水量为17.68×10~8m~3。在总生态需水量中,林木植被生态需水量为12.47×10~8m~3,占总生态需水量的70.5%;随着生态环境的改善,森林植被、城市绿化、湿地改造及恢复,水利事业发展等,生态需水量将进一步增大。2010年比现状增加了5.43×10~8m~3,2020年比现状增加了6.64×10~8m~3,生态需水量增幅最大的是林木植被生态需水量,分别增长了4.93×10~8m~3、5.95×10~8m~3,从预测的结果看,生态建设的规模适度。但在制定未来生态环境建设规划的同时,应首先进行威海市降水资源、水资源和生态用水的合理配置规划,否则生态建设用水和国民经济建设用水的矛盾会逐步暴露出来,结果必然影响生态建设规划的落实。
(4)①界定威海市需要在水资源规划中配置的生态需水主要为河流生态用(需)水、湿地(包括水库)生态用(需)水及城市绿地生态用(需)水。在水资源配置模型中可以作为决策变量或约束项来体现。②在引入规划的外调水、加大中水、海水利用后,2010、2020年威海市城镇需水仍难以得到满足。为了达到水资源供需平衡,只有调整并压缩农林灌溉用水:通过采用喷灌、微灌等节水灌溉措施,提高水的利用率;加大海水利用量和污水回用量这三种主要方案进行解决。
(5)威海市水资源可利用量受出境水量控制,水质污染严重,供水与用水矛盾日趋突出,若不采用应急方案,2010年与2020年水量基本都难以平衡,如考虑水质,则水资源短缺更为严重,局部地区会出现严重缺水。因此,一是加快多种新水源工程和水利设施改造建设,通过提、引、拦蓄等措施进一步稳定和增加可供水资源量,特别是完善胶东调水工程。二是建设节水型威海,通过节水型农业、节水型工业、节水型城乡生活、节水型生态环境建设及控制水质污染,提高中水利用等,合理配置水资源。
The situation of water resources,vegetation,land utilization,forest resources and the conservation of water and soil in Weihai city were studied in this thesis.According to the analysis of the situation of water resources in Weihai city,the constitution of the ecological water use were defined.Then the coefficient of water consumption and demand for forest and crop were calculated on the base of the theory of plant evapo-transpiration and water volume balance.The volume of ecological water demand for forest and crop,the watercourse,conservation of water and soil,the wetlands and the city were calculated.At the same time,the ecological water demand in 2010 and 2020 were predicted according to the statistical analysis of the present situation of ecological water use through Cu coefficient.After calculating the water demand of social economy,the optimal model of the allocation of water resources was established based on the Fuzzy Optimization Theory.The scheme of the allocation of water resources was evaluated and optimized using this model.The results showed that:
(1) The rainfall was abundant in Weihai city from 1950s to 1970s while it was less from 1980s to 1990s.The precipitation tendency was decreasing from 1956 to 2000.The rainfall decreased 5.8mm, 6.2mm,6.6mm,9.2mm annually in 1960s,1970s,1980s,1990s respectively and the annual volume of reduction of the rainfall was increasing year by year.The total volume of reduction of precipitation was as 36.5%of the average annual precipitation.The change of the erath surface water resources was similar to the precipitation.The surface runoff was much from 1950s to 1970s,while it was less in 1980s and 1990s.The amount of surface runoff had the drop tendency as 5.2mm per year from 1960s to 1990s.The contradiction of the water supply and demand was previous became the decreasing of water resources and the increasing of water demand.
(2) The total amount of present ecological water use was 12.26×10~8m~3 in Weihai city.The amount of consumptive ecological water use was 10.13×10~8m~3,while the amount of consumptive ecological water use from rainfall was 7.54×10~8m~3,which accounted for 61.3%of the total ecological water use. The amount of runoff consumptive ecological water use was 2.59×10~8m~3,which accounted for 21.1%of the total ecological water use.The amount of non-consumptive ecological water use was 2.13×10~8m~3, which accounted for 17.3%of the total ecological water use.7.54×10~8m~3 of the consumptive ecological water was used for vegetation and crops,which accounted for 61.3%of the total ecological water use. The volume of the ecological water use for vegetation and crops constituted the biggest portion of the total present ecological water use.The main part of the total present ecological water use was consumptive ecological water use from rainfall.
(3) It was predicted that the total amount of the ecological water demand would be 17.68×10~8m~3 in Weihai city in 2010.The amount of ecological water use of the vegetation and crops would be 12.47×10~8m~3,which accounted for 70.5%of the total ecological water use.With the improvement of ecological environment,such as the protection of the vegetation,the reforestation of the city,the transformation and the restoration of the wetland and the development of water conservancy,the ecological water demand would increase further.The amount of ecological water demand would increase 5.43×108m3 and6.64×10~8m~3.in 2010 and 2020 respectively.The amount of ecological water use of the vegetation and crops would increase 4.93×108m3 and 5.95×10~8m~3 in 2010 and 2020 respectively,which would increase more quickly than others.The scale of the ecological construction was moderate from the prediction.It was suggested that the reasonable plan of the allocation of the rainfall,the water resources and the ecological water use should be made to avoid the contradiction of the water consumption between ecological and economical construction.
(4) The ecological water demand included the ecological water demand and use of the rivers, wetlands(reservoir) and urban green land in Weihai city,which were incarnated as decision or restraint variables in the allocation model of water resources.It would be difficult to meet the water demand of the city after the supply of the external water,recycled water and the sea water in 2010 and 2020.In order to achieve the balance of water resources supply and demand,three measures,such as,adjusting the water use for farming and vegetation irrigation,improving the efficiency of water use through water saving irrigation,enhancing the use of the sea water and recycled water.
(5) The amount of the water resources available for use was controlled by the output water volume in Weihai city.As the contradiction between water supply and water use was more obvious and the water pollution was more serious than before,the balance between the output and input of water volume could not be maintained if the emergency plan was not adopted in 2010 and 2020.Water resource shortage would be a serious problem in some area if the water quality was concerned.Therefore,The result suggested that several measures should be taken to stabilize and increase the volume of water supply.Firstly,new water source project,water facilities construction,water conduction through dams and especially the water project of Jiaodong should be put in practice.Secondly,water saving technology should be used in agriculture,industry,ecological environment and ordinary life.Thirdly, the water pollution should be controlled effectively and the use of recycled water should be increased. Last,the water resources should be allocated reasonably.
引文
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