铁路客运收益管理模型及应用研究
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摘要
研究与实施铁路客运收益管理是铁路客运管理部门的迫切需求和铁路信息化攻关的重点。特别是高速铁路客运专线的建设和投入运营，如何在固定的能力条件下，以低边际成本获取高客运收入，成为了铁路客运管理人员和科技研究开发人员面临的重要课题。铁路客票系统的成功建设，以及12306互联网售票、电话订票、铁路客户服务中心等“便民利民”手段的成功推广应用，积累了相对丰富的生产数据，使得这一需求的研究变得可行。本论文以铁路客运为研究背景，以收益管理的思想和方法为研究出发点，结合铁路客运管理特征，对铁路客运收益管理进行了系统化的研究。
首先，分析了国内外关于铁路客运收益管理的研究现状，全面阐述了收益管理理论以及航空收益管理的方法和模型，对铁路与航空旅客运输进行了相似性和差异性比较，分析了铁路客运实施收益管理的可能性，提出了铁路客运收益管理需实现“收入”和“发送量”双赢的内涵，并基于铁路兼具计划经济和市场经济双重运营要求的特点，提出了铁路客运收益管理的体系结构及构成。
其次，在铁路客运收益管理体系的指导下，对铁路旅客行为分析方法和客流预测方法进行了研究，引入了聚类分析方法，对铁路旅客结构、产品选择和购票渠道选择进行了行为分析，提出了适用于铁路客运收益管理短期、动态预测的“四因素”季节波动客流预测模型，并通过实际应用证明了该模型的实用性。
第三，围绕铁路客运收益管理体系，分别对铁路售票组织策略、超售策略、团体控制和铁路价格进行了控制方法和模型的研究，提出了区段控制策略、票额预分算法、票额共用策略、席位复用策略等方法，提出了超员控制和超售管理并存的超售策略，提出了团体票额管理和团体价格控制的团体管理策略，提出了静态价格控制和动态价格控制相结合的价格控制策略。
最后，全面阐述了铁路客运收益管理的相关支撑系统和平台，提出了基于收益管理的铁路客运营销辅助决策系统功能框架，并对其进行了业务流程设计、数据仓库设计和实现流程设计。
Research and implementation of railway passenger revenue management is theurgent needs of the railway passenger transportation sector and it is alsothe focus problem in rail information research. Especially with the high speedpassenger railway construction and put into operation,under the conditionsof the fixed passenger capacities, how to obtain a low marginal cost of highpassenger revenue, becomes an important issue for passenger transportmanagement and the researchers in the railway technology research. With thesuccessful applications of the web site12306-booking, telephone-booking, andwith the railway customer service center in using, and with the implementationfor railway passengers in convenience, the booking system has accumulatedrelative abundance of production data, so it becomes feasible for the studyabout rail passenger revenue management. In this thesis, with the China railwaytransportation as the research background, and with the revenue managementideas and methods as this research starting point, combining with railwaypassenger management features, this thesis make a systematic study of therailway passenger revenue management.
Firstly, this thesis analyze the current situation of domestic andinternational rail passenger revenue management，and make a comprehensiveexposition of the theory of revenue management and the methods and models aboutairline revenue management，then we look at differences and similaritiesbetween rail and airline in passenger transport fields and analyze thepossibility to implement the revenue management in railway. This thesispresents that rail passenger revenue management system needs to realize theconnotation of "income" and "traffic" win-win, then based on dual operationalrequirements of the planned economy and market economy in railway market，this paper presents the structures and compositions of rail passenger revenuemanagement system.
Secondly, under the guidance of the architecture of railway passenger revenue management system, this paper makes the emphases on studying themethods how to analyze rail passenger behavior and how to forecast thepassenger-flow. We apply the cluster-analysis methods on analyzing thepassenger behavior such as in passenger partitions, in production selectionsand in booking channel selections and etc. This paper gives the novelfour-factors seasonal-fluctuations prediction model in passenger trafficforecast which is adept in short-term, dynamic forecast in the railway. thepractical application proved the usefulness of the model.
Thirdly, around the railway passenger revenue management system, thispaper focus on the study about the methods and models in the railway ticketorganizational strategy, overbooking strategy, corporate control strategy andrail price control strategy. And then this paper presents the novel Chineserevenue management strategy set: the ticket section-control strategy, the seatallotment algorithm, the ticket-sharing strategy, the seat-reuse strategy,the coexistence overbooking control and management strategy, the groupmanagement strategy, the price control strategy.
Finally, this paper gives a comprehensive exposition about the railwaypassenger revenue management support systems and platforms, and presents thefunction framework based on revenue management in railway passenger marketingdecision support system, and carried the idea farther to design the businessprocesses, data warehouse and implementation of process.
首先，分析了国内外关于铁路客运收益管理的研究现状，全面阐述了收益管理理论以及航空收益管理的方法和模型，对铁路与航空旅客运输进行了相似性和差异性比较，分析了铁路客运实施收益管理的可能性，提出了铁路客运收益管理需实现“收入”和“发送量”双赢的内涵，并基于铁路兼具计划经济和市场经济双重运营要求的特点，提出了铁路客运收益管理的体系结构及构成。
其次，在铁路客运收益管理体系的指导下，对铁路旅客行为分析方法和客流预测方法进行了研究，引入了聚类分析方法，对铁路旅客结构、产品选择和购票渠道选择进行了行为分析，提出了适用于铁路客运收益管理短期、动态预测的“四因素”季节波动客流预测模型，并通过实际应用证明了该模型的实用性。
第三，围绕铁路客运收益管理体系，分别对铁路售票组织策略、超售策略、团体控制和铁路价格进行了控制方法和模型的研究，提出了区段控制策略、票额预分算法、票额共用策略、席位复用策略等方法，提出了超员控制和超售管理并存的超售策略，提出了团体票额管理和团体价格控制的团体管理策略，提出了静态价格控制和动态价格控制相结合的价格控制策略。
最后，全面阐述了铁路客运收益管理的相关支撑系统和平台，提出了基于收益管理的铁路客运营销辅助决策系统功能框架，并对其进行了业务流程设计、数据仓库设计和实现流程设计。
Research and implementation of railway passenger revenue management is theurgent needs of the railway passenger transportation sector and it is alsothe focus problem in rail information research. Especially with the high speedpassenger railway construction and put into operation,under the conditionsof the fixed passenger capacities, how to obtain a low marginal cost of highpassenger revenue, becomes an important issue for passenger transportmanagement and the researchers in the railway technology research. With thesuccessful applications of the web site12306-booking, telephone-booking, andwith the railway customer service center in using, and with the implementationfor railway passengers in convenience, the booking system has accumulatedrelative abundance of production data, so it becomes feasible for the studyabout rail passenger revenue management. In this thesis, with the China railwaytransportation as the research background, and with the revenue managementideas and methods as this research starting point, combining with railwaypassenger management features, this thesis make a systematic study of therailway passenger revenue management.
Firstly, this thesis analyze the current situation of domestic andinternational rail passenger revenue management，and make a comprehensiveexposition of the theory of revenue management and the methods and models aboutairline revenue management，then we look at differences and similaritiesbetween rail and airline in passenger transport fields and analyze thepossibility to implement the revenue management in railway. This thesispresents that rail passenger revenue management system needs to realize theconnotation of "income" and "traffic" win-win, then based on dual operationalrequirements of the planned economy and market economy in railway market，this paper presents the structures and compositions of rail passenger revenuemanagement system.
Secondly, under the guidance of the architecture of railway passenger revenue management system, this paper makes the emphases on studying themethods how to analyze rail passenger behavior and how to forecast thepassenger-flow. We apply the cluster-analysis methods on analyzing thepassenger behavior such as in passenger partitions, in production selectionsand in booking channel selections and etc. This paper gives the novelfour-factors seasonal-fluctuations prediction model in passenger trafficforecast which is adept in short-term, dynamic forecast in the railway. thepractical application proved the usefulness of the model.
Thirdly, around the railway passenger revenue management system, thispaper focus on the study about the methods and models in the railway ticketorganizational strategy, overbooking strategy, corporate control strategy andrail price control strategy. And then this paper presents the novel Chineserevenue management strategy set: the ticket section-control strategy, the seatallotment algorithm, the ticket-sharing strategy, the seat-reuse strategy,the coexistence overbooking control and management strategy, the groupmanagement strategy, the price control strategy.
Finally, this paper gives a comprehensive exposition about the railwaypassenger revenue management support systems and platforms, and presents thefunction framework based on revenue management in railway passenger marketingdecision support system, and carried the idea farther to design the businessprocesses, data warehouse and implementation of process.
引文
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[2] Kalyan Talluri, Garrett van Ryzin. Revenue management under a general discrete choice modelof consumer behavior[J]. Management Science.2004,50(1):15-33.
[3]甘江.论市场经济条件下的民航收益管理[J].民航经济与技术.1999,17（5）：20-22.
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