产品内国际分工与贸易
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摘要
中国改革开放30年的进出口贸易数据显示,中国的进出口商品结构发生了显著的改善,中国出口产品的成熟度已经接近OECD等发达国家的水平,但是,中国的要素禀赋变化并不能够对此进出口商品结构的统计变化做出强有力的解释。一个最主要的原因是,传统的进出口贸易统计分析均假定一个产品的生产是在同一个国家/地区完成的,生产要素是不可以跨国界流动的(资本的跨国界流动比如国际直接投资被视为会替代国际贸易);同样,基于垄断竞争和规模经济理论的新贸易理论也不能够强有力地解释发达国家与中国之间的这种贸易模式,因为该理论所假定的对差异化产品的需求偏好和相似的人均购买力水平也不能够成立。因此,我们必须利用产品内国际分工和贸易理论解释新的国际分工和贸易模式。
国内外学者对产品内国际分工和贸易的研究在20世界90年代以后渐成热点,他们以不同的概念研究这同一种国际分工和贸易现象并建立了包括一般均衡分析在内的不同理论模型。但是,他们的研究存在几个主要缺陷:一是没有建立一个逻辑连贯一致的分析框架解释国际分工从产业间演变到产品内的路径,也没有指明国际分工未来的发展方向;二是没有从生产组织形式的角度分析产品内国际分工是如何在全球范围内展开的;三是将研究重点集中在理论模型分析、全球或区域分工分析、投入产出表分析等方面,迄今为止,尚无学者从零部件进出口的角度研究中国参与产品内国际分工和贸易的现状,而在假定服务环节的分工数据不可得的前提下,零部件研究角度可以最直接、最直观、最真实地反映中国参与产品内国际分工和贸易的现状。
因此,本研究基于实地调研、问卷调查、加工贸易和零部件进出口统计数据等资料,在梳理国际分工和贸易理论发展历史的基础上,提出了一个解释国际分工演变路径,轨迹的“要素禀赋差异——专业化经济——交易效率(ESE)”模型,总结了产品内国际分工的基本决定因素;在全球生产网络组织理论基础上建立了一个三维框架来分析产品内国际分工和贸易的组织形式,并提出了三种典型治理模式;详细分析了中国参与产品内国际分工的现状、主要影响因素、获取的价值和利益。
本研究的基本结论是:以零部件进出口为主要载体的产品内国际分工已经成为中国参与国际分工的主要形式,但是,无论是制成品还是零部件国际分工,中国获取的分工价值和利益都非常微薄。为此,本研究提出了提高中国出口商品国内价值含量,增进中国国民分享国际分工福利,实现中国外贸可持续发展的政策建议。
China's import and export data in the past three decades reveals that the commodity structure of Chinese import and export has been improved significantly,and the sophistication of China's export goods has a very high similarity to that of OECD countries.China's factor endowments and their changes,however,cannot account for this improvement and similarity convincingly.One important reason is that traditional statistics of import and export is based on an assumption that a product is made throughout the way in one country or region,and that factors of production cannot move across borders(the transnational movement of capital such as FDI is often viewed as a substitute of international trade).Similarly,new international trade theories based on monopolistic competition and economies of scale have failed to explain the new trade pattern between developed countries and developing ones,because the basic assumption of a preference for differentiated products or product varieties between nations with similar purchasing power cannot be held.A possible explanation to this new pattern of international specialization and trade,therefore,lies in the idea of international intra-product specialization and trade.
Academic research on international intra-product specialization and trade by scholars at home and abroad has become popular since 1990's.To study this issue,they have employed or coined different concepts and have developed a variety of models,including general equilibrium model.Yet,there are a few loop holes in their study:firstly,they did not offer a framework to depict logically the trajectory of international division of labor from inter-industry to intra-product level,thus could not point out the direction of future evolution;secondly,they did not explain how international intra-product specialization is organized globally;and thirdly,their study was focused on developing theoretical models,analyzing global or regional specialization, or working on input-output forms.So far,no scholar has made research on China's involvement into international intra-product specialization and trade with regard to its import and export of parts and components.With an assumption that data for international specialization of trade in service is not available,data on parts and components can embody the most direct,most visual, and most reliable information on China's involvement into international intra-produet specialization and trade.
Therefore,based on field investigation,questionnaire feedback by firms,processing trade data and data on trade in parts and components,we have developed a Factor Endowment Gap-Economies of Specialization-Transaction Efficiency(ESE) model to depict the evolution path of international specialization,and proposed a three-dimensional framework to develop three typical governance models of global production networks and international intra-product specialization.Besides,we have summarized the fundamental determinants of international intra-product specialization,and analyzed the status quo of China's involvement into international intra-product specialization and trade,the key determinants,and the value and benefits China has got.
The basic conclusion we have got from our research is that China has been deeply involved into international intra-product specialization via import and export of parts and components,but the value and benefits China has got from trade in either final goods or parts and components are humble and marginal.So,we finally put forward some policy proposals on how to increase domestic value-added in China,how to enlarge the welfare share of Chinese people in international specialization,and how to maintain a sustainable development of China's foreign trade.
国内外学者对产品内国际分工和贸易的研究在20世界90年代以后渐成热点,他们以不同的概念研究这同一种国际分工和贸易现象并建立了包括一般均衡分析在内的不同理论模型。但是,他们的研究存在几个主要缺陷:一是没有建立一个逻辑连贯一致的分析框架解释国际分工从产业间演变到产品内的路径,也没有指明国际分工未来的发展方向;二是没有从生产组织形式的角度分析产品内国际分工是如何在全球范围内展开的;三是将研究重点集中在理论模型分析、全球或区域分工分析、投入产出表分析等方面,迄今为止,尚无学者从零部件进出口的角度研究中国参与产品内国际分工和贸易的现状,而在假定服务环节的分工数据不可得的前提下,零部件研究角度可以最直接、最直观、最真实地反映中国参与产品内国际分工和贸易的现状。
因此,本研究基于实地调研、问卷调查、加工贸易和零部件进出口统计数据等资料,在梳理国际分工和贸易理论发展历史的基础上,提出了一个解释国际分工演变路径,轨迹的“要素禀赋差异——专业化经济——交易效率(ESE)”模型,总结了产品内国际分工的基本决定因素;在全球生产网络组织理论基础上建立了一个三维框架来分析产品内国际分工和贸易的组织形式,并提出了三种典型治理模式;详细分析了中国参与产品内国际分工的现状、主要影响因素、获取的价值和利益。
本研究的基本结论是:以零部件进出口为主要载体的产品内国际分工已经成为中国参与国际分工的主要形式,但是,无论是制成品还是零部件国际分工,中国获取的分工价值和利益都非常微薄。为此,本研究提出了提高中国出口商品国内价值含量,增进中国国民分享国际分工福利,实现中国外贸可持续发展的政策建议。
China's import and export data in the past three decades reveals that the commodity structure of Chinese import and export has been improved significantly,and the sophistication of China's export goods has a very high similarity to that of OECD countries.China's factor endowments and their changes,however,cannot account for this improvement and similarity convincingly.One important reason is that traditional statistics of import and export is based on an assumption that a product is made throughout the way in one country or region,and that factors of production cannot move across borders(the transnational movement of capital such as FDI is often viewed as a substitute of international trade).Similarly,new international trade theories based on monopolistic competition and economies of scale have failed to explain the new trade pattern between developed countries and developing ones,because the basic assumption of a preference for differentiated products or product varieties between nations with similar purchasing power cannot be held.A possible explanation to this new pattern of international specialization and trade,therefore,lies in the idea of international intra-product specialization and trade.
Academic research on international intra-product specialization and trade by scholars at home and abroad has become popular since 1990's.To study this issue,they have employed or coined different concepts and have developed a variety of models,including general equilibrium model.Yet,there are a few loop holes in their study:firstly,they did not offer a framework to depict logically the trajectory of international division of labor from inter-industry to intra-product level,thus could not point out the direction of future evolution;secondly,they did not explain how international intra-product specialization is organized globally;and thirdly,their study was focused on developing theoretical models,analyzing global or regional specialization, or working on input-output forms.So far,no scholar has made research on China's involvement into international intra-product specialization and trade with regard to its import and export of parts and components.With an assumption that data for international specialization of trade in service is not available,data on parts and components can embody the most direct,most visual, and most reliable information on China's involvement into international intra-produet specialization and trade.
Therefore,based on field investigation,questionnaire feedback by firms,processing trade data and data on trade in parts and components,we have developed a Factor Endowment Gap-Economies of Specialization-Transaction Efficiency(ESE) model to depict the evolution path of international specialization,and proposed a three-dimensional framework to develop three typical governance models of global production networks and international intra-product specialization.Besides,we have summarized the fundamental determinants of international intra-product specialization,and analyzed the status quo of China's involvement into international intra-product specialization and trade,the key determinants,and the value and benefits China has got.
The basic conclusion we have got from our research is that China has been deeply involved into international intra-product specialization via import and export of parts and components,but the value and benefits China has got from trade in either final goods or parts and components are humble and marginal.So,we finally put forward some policy proposals on how to increase domestic value-added in China,how to enlarge the welfare share of Chinese people in international specialization,and how to maintain a sustainable development of China's foreign trade.
引文
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