中国农村金融供给问题研究
|
摘要
本文的研究对象主要是我国农村金融供给问题。本研究基于这样一个共识:金融发展是推动经济增长的重要动力。在此前提下,对这一共识在中国经济转轨阶段农村经济的适用性进行了实证分析,重点考察了中国农村金融体系与农村居民人均收入、城乡居民收入差距的关系,探讨了中国农村金融体系在“三农问题”产生发展过程中的作用,分析了农村金融体系功能异化的表现和供给抑制形成的原因,提出了构建新型农村金融供给体系的内涵、目标和途径。
本文由三部分七个章节组成。第一部分(第一、二章)主要是理论归纳与文献综述,也是本篇论文的立论基础。第二部分(第三、四、五章)是论文的主体,在回顾和分析了中国农村经济和农村金融体系发展的历史轨迹和面临的主要问题后,指出了“三农发展”中金融因素的影响;对农村地区发展水平(农村居民收入与城乡收入差距)与农村金融体系的关系进行实证分析,根据实证结果,进一步分析了农村金融功能异化的表现,剖析了农村金融供给抑制的成因。第三部分(第六、七章)是本文研究的归宿,在借鉴国际经验的基础上,提出了多层次、多主体的新型农村金融体系,矫正“农村金融体系功能异化”,破除供给抑制的政策建议。
本文的主要结论如下:
1.改革开放以来,中国农村金融供给体系是造成农民增收困难和农村落后的重要原因之一。实证发现,在旧的农村金融供给体系下,金融越发展,农村金融资源和经济增长要素流失的就越厉害,城乡差距就越大,农民增收就越困难。现有农村金融体系已经形成了强大的路径依赖,必须重新构建新型农村金融体系,才能破解“三农问题”,避免经济发展陷入“拉美陷阱”,使农民等广大社会弱势群体失去分享经济社会发展成果的机会。
2.中国农村金融体系功能异化和供给抑制,既有“三农发展”高风险的特质因素,也有政策失误与政府干预的因素,并在很大程度上是政府主导的农村金融改革造成的。政府干预与过度管制形成的路径依赖具有很强的闭锁(Lock-in)效应,在强化管制的政策导向下,最终导致中国农村金融供给体系错位和功能异化,未能建立起符合中国农村经济特点、符合国际经验的农村金融供给体系。
3.从国际实践看,有效率和持续发展能力的农村金融供给体系必然是多元化、市场化、综合性和民主性的,这体现了农村经济高风险特征对农村金融发展的内在要求与客观规律。任何强有力的国家控制即使能够在短期获得一定成效,但是如果因过度干预而破坏了市场机制的作用,寻租动力会导致政策预期难以起到良好的效果,在长期必然难以为继(如巴西和印度)。
4.实践证明,试图在现有的框架内重建中国农村金融体系的功能是走不通的。未来中国农村金融供给体系建设必须实行“新老划断”,充分借鉴日本和孟加拉国的经验,避免重蹈印度和巴西的覆辙,最终建立起类似美国模式的、同时兼具格莱珉普惠金融特征的新型农村金融供给体系。我国新型农村金融供给体系建设必须放弃国家强力主导的陈旧观念,以综合金融的视野统筹考虑,充分调动包括农民和民间资本在内的一切资本的积极性,变政府主导为政府引导、变严格管制为有效监管、变国有控制为多元竞争,充分依靠市场机制,通过改造(商业银行)、转型(农信社)、新设(合作金融)、功能扩展(保险机构)等方式,创造商业金融、合作金融、政策金融、国有资本以及民营资本充分竞争的政策环境,改变政府主导农村金融体系改革发展的单一模式,探索自上而下引导、自下而上主导的多元化发展道路。
This dissertation focuses on issues related to China's rural financial supply. Based on the consensus that financial development is one of the driving forces of economic growth, we examine if it applies to the growth of the rural economy in a transiting China. This paper devotes major efforts to studying the relationship between China's rural financial development and rural residents' per capita income, and the relationship between the rural financial development and the income gap. The role of rural financial system is also investigated in the formation and development of 'Three Rural Problems'. In addition, the paper also explains the function variation and repression of China's rural finance and hence provides some suggestions on what and how to build a new-type rural financial supply system in China.
The research consists of three parts including seven chapters. Part One (that is Chapter One and Chapter Two), which is literature survey, forms the theoretical foundation of the study. In Part Two (including Chapter Three, Chapter Four and Chapter Five), we adopt the econometric method and uses the time series dataset to examine the empirical relationship between rural financial development and the income of peasants, and then give some reasons for the function variation and supply repression of the rural finance. In Part Three (including Chapter Six and Chapter Seven), we put forward the connotation of a multi-level multi-agents rural financial system according to the experiences of foreign countries, and make some suggestions on how to correct the rural financial system function deviation and eliminate the repression on China's rural financial supply.
The major conclusions of the dissertation are as follows:
I. The existing rural financial supply system is an important factor leading to the poverty of the rural peasants since China's reform and openness. Under the old rural financial system, it becomes more difficult to increase the income of peasants as the finance develops. Allowing for the strong path-dependent characteristics of the old rural financial system, it is necessary to re-build a new-type rural financial system to resolve the 'Three Rural Problems' and to avoid the "Latin American Trap".
II. The function variation and supply repression of China's rural finance result not only from the inherent high risk that lies in the agriculture development but also from inappropriate government intervention. The excessive government intervention and control is path dependent and eventually lock China's rural financial system in disorder.
III. According to international practices, an efficient and sustainable rural financial system must be diversified, market-oriented, integrated and democratic. It is a universal law and consistent with the inherent high risk of rural economy. The government intervention may be effective in short term, but in the long rung it will be invalid, say Brazil and India, since the intervention will undermine the market mechanism and the rent-seeking power will lead to policy failure.
IV. It proved that the efforts trying to resume the function of China's rural financial system in the old framework were ineffective. China's new rural financial system must sever the link with the past. It should refer to the experience of Japan and Bangladesh to create a new effective rural financial system, which will have some characteristics both of the American model and the Grameen Bank's GSP Financial System. The stereotypes of state-control needs to be abandoned and replaced by a new thought of comprehensive finance. China needs to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers and private capital, and switch the idea of government-control to government-guidance, of strict control to effective supervision, of being a monopolistic market to building a competitive market. The market mechanism should play a fundamental role of in the construction of a new rural financial system.
本文由三部分七个章节组成。第一部分(第一、二章)主要是理论归纳与文献综述,也是本篇论文的立论基础。第二部分(第三、四、五章)是论文的主体,在回顾和分析了中国农村经济和农村金融体系发展的历史轨迹和面临的主要问题后,指出了“三农发展”中金融因素的影响;对农村地区发展水平(农村居民收入与城乡收入差距)与农村金融体系的关系进行实证分析,根据实证结果,进一步分析了农村金融功能异化的表现,剖析了农村金融供给抑制的成因。第三部分(第六、七章)是本文研究的归宿,在借鉴国际经验的基础上,提出了多层次、多主体的新型农村金融体系,矫正“农村金融体系功能异化”,破除供给抑制的政策建议。
本文的主要结论如下:
1.改革开放以来,中国农村金融供给体系是造成农民增收困难和农村落后的重要原因之一。实证发现,在旧的农村金融供给体系下,金融越发展,农村金融资源和经济增长要素流失的就越厉害,城乡差距就越大,农民增收就越困难。现有农村金融体系已经形成了强大的路径依赖,必须重新构建新型农村金融体系,才能破解“三农问题”,避免经济发展陷入“拉美陷阱”,使农民等广大社会弱势群体失去分享经济社会发展成果的机会。
2.中国农村金融体系功能异化和供给抑制,既有“三农发展”高风险的特质因素,也有政策失误与政府干预的因素,并在很大程度上是政府主导的农村金融改革造成的。政府干预与过度管制形成的路径依赖具有很强的闭锁(Lock-in)效应,在强化管制的政策导向下,最终导致中国农村金融供给体系错位和功能异化,未能建立起符合中国农村经济特点、符合国际经验的农村金融供给体系。
3.从国际实践看,有效率和持续发展能力的农村金融供给体系必然是多元化、市场化、综合性和民主性的,这体现了农村经济高风险特征对农村金融发展的内在要求与客观规律。任何强有力的国家控制即使能够在短期获得一定成效,但是如果因过度干预而破坏了市场机制的作用,寻租动力会导致政策预期难以起到良好的效果,在长期必然难以为继(如巴西和印度)。
4.实践证明,试图在现有的框架内重建中国农村金融体系的功能是走不通的。未来中国农村金融供给体系建设必须实行“新老划断”,充分借鉴日本和孟加拉国的经验,避免重蹈印度和巴西的覆辙,最终建立起类似美国模式的、同时兼具格莱珉普惠金融特征的新型农村金融供给体系。我国新型农村金融供给体系建设必须放弃国家强力主导的陈旧观念,以综合金融的视野统筹考虑,充分调动包括农民和民间资本在内的一切资本的积极性,变政府主导为政府引导、变严格管制为有效监管、变国有控制为多元竞争,充分依靠市场机制,通过改造(商业银行)、转型(农信社)、新设(合作金融)、功能扩展(保险机构)等方式,创造商业金融、合作金融、政策金融、国有资本以及民营资本充分竞争的政策环境,改变政府主导农村金融体系改革发展的单一模式,探索自上而下引导、自下而上主导的多元化发展道路。
This dissertation focuses on issues related to China's rural financial supply. Based on the consensus that financial development is one of the driving forces of economic growth, we examine if it applies to the growth of the rural economy in a transiting China. This paper devotes major efforts to studying the relationship between China's rural financial development and rural residents' per capita income, and the relationship between the rural financial development and the income gap. The role of rural financial system is also investigated in the formation and development of 'Three Rural Problems'. In addition, the paper also explains the function variation and repression of China's rural finance and hence provides some suggestions on what and how to build a new-type rural financial supply system in China.
The research consists of three parts including seven chapters. Part One (that is Chapter One and Chapter Two), which is literature survey, forms the theoretical foundation of the study. In Part Two (including Chapter Three, Chapter Four and Chapter Five), we adopt the econometric method and uses the time series dataset to examine the empirical relationship between rural financial development and the income of peasants, and then give some reasons for the function variation and supply repression of the rural finance. In Part Three (including Chapter Six and Chapter Seven), we put forward the connotation of a multi-level multi-agents rural financial system according to the experiences of foreign countries, and make some suggestions on how to correct the rural financial system function deviation and eliminate the repression on China's rural financial supply.
The major conclusions of the dissertation are as follows:
I. The existing rural financial supply system is an important factor leading to the poverty of the rural peasants since China's reform and openness. Under the old rural financial system, it becomes more difficult to increase the income of peasants as the finance develops. Allowing for the strong path-dependent characteristics of the old rural financial system, it is necessary to re-build a new-type rural financial system to resolve the 'Three Rural Problems' and to avoid the "Latin American Trap".
II. The function variation and supply repression of China's rural finance result not only from the inherent high risk that lies in the agriculture development but also from inappropriate government intervention. The excessive government intervention and control is path dependent and eventually lock China's rural financial system in disorder.
III. According to international practices, an efficient and sustainable rural financial system must be diversified, market-oriented, integrated and democratic. It is a universal law and consistent with the inherent high risk of rural economy. The government intervention may be effective in short term, but in the long rung it will be invalid, say Brazil and India, since the intervention will undermine the market mechanism and the rent-seeking power will lead to policy failure.
IV. It proved that the efforts trying to resume the function of China's rural financial system in the old framework were ineffective. China's new rural financial system must sever the link with the past. It should refer to the experience of Japan and Bangladesh to create a new effective rural financial system, which will have some characteristics both of the American model and the Grameen Bank's GSP Financial System. The stereotypes of state-control needs to be abandoned and replaced by a new thought of comprehensive finance. China needs to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers and private capital, and switch the idea of government-control to government-guidance, of strict control to effective supervision, of being a monopolistic market to building a competitive market. The market mechanism should play a fundamental role of in the construction of a new rural financial system.
引文
[1]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济分析史(第二卷,杨敬年译).北京:商务印书馆,2001:349-407
[2]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济分析史(第三卷,朱泱,易梦虹,李宏等译).北京:商务印书馆,1996:223-238
[3]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论—对于利润、资本、信贷、利息和经济周期的考察(何畏 易家详 张军扩等译).北京:商务印书馆,1990:中译本序言,第三章
[4]戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展(周朔,郝金城,肖远企,谢德麟译).上海:上海三联书店,1994
[5]爱德华·肖.经济发展中的金融深化(邵伏军,许晓明,宋先平译).上海:上海三联书店,1988
[6]麦金农.经济发展中的货币与资本(卢骢译).上海:上海三联书店,1997
[7]麦金农.经济市场化的次序—向市场经济过渡时期的金融控制(周庭煜,尹翔硕,陈中亚译).上海:上海三联书店,1997
[8]Gurley,John G.and Shaw,Edward S.Financial Aspects of Economic Development.American Economic Review,September 1955,45(4):515-38
[9]西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长(常勋译).北京:商务印书馆,1999
[10]亚当·斯密.道德情操论(谢宗林译).北京:中央编译出版社,2008
[11]本杰明·M·弗里德曼.经济增长的道德意义(李天有译).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008
[12]魏克塞尔.利息与价格(蔡受百,程伯撝译).北京:商务印书馆,1959
[13]McKinnon,Ronald I.Money and Capital in Economic Development.Washington,DC:Brookings Institution,1973
[14]King,R.G.and R.Levine.Finance and Growth:Schumpeter Might Be Right.Quarterly Journal of Economics.1993,108
[15]King,Robert G.and Levine,Ross.Finance,Entrepreneurship,and Growth:Theory and Evidence.J.Monet.Econ.,Dec.1993,32(3):513-542
[16]Beck,Thorsten and Levine,Ross.Industry Growth and Capital Allocation:Does Having a Market-or Bank-Based System Matter? Journal of Financial Economics,May 2002,64(2):147-180
[17]Bekaert,Geert,Harvey.Campbell R.and Lundblad,Christian T.Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth? NBER Working Paper No.8245,National Bureau of Economic Research,April 2001
[18]King,Robert G.and Levine,Ross.Finance,Entrepreneurship,and Growth:Theory and Evidence.J.Monet.Econ.,Dec 1993,32(3):513-542
[19]Demirg(u|¨)c-Kunt,A.and R.Levine.Bank-based and market-based financial systems:Cross-country comparisons.World Bank,mimeo,1999
[20]Demirg(u|¨)c-Kunt,Asli and Levine,Ross.Financial Structure and Economic Growth:A Cross-Country Comparison of Banks,Markets,and Development.Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,2001
[21]Demirg(u|¨)c-Kunt,Asli and Maksimovic,Vojislav.Law,Finance,and Firm Growth.Journal of Finance,December 1998,53(6):2107-37
[22]Rajan,R.G.and L.Zingales.Financial systems,industrial structure,and growth.Mimeo.,1999a
[23]Rajan,R.G.and L.Zingales.The great reversals:The politics of financial development in the twentieth century.Forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics,2002
[24]Rajan,Raghuram G.and Zingales,Luigi.Financial Dependence and Growth.American Economic Review,June,1998
[25]滋维·博迪,罗伯特·默顿.金融学(欧阳颖,贺书捷,李振坤等译).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000
[26]刘易斯.经济增长理论(周师铭、沈丙杰、沈伯根译).北京:商务印书馆, 1983
[27]约翰·格利,爱德华·肖.金融理论中的货币(贝多广译).上海:上海三联书店,1988
[28]Patrick,H.T..Financial Policies and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries.Economic Development and Cultural Change,1966(1)
[29]Levine,R..Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda.Journal of Economics Literature,1997(35):688-726
[30]J.D.Von Pischke,Dale W Adams and Gordon Donald.Rural Financial Markets in Developing Countries.1983
[31]D.W.Adams.Why Agricultural Credit Program in Low Income Countries Perform Poorly? Farm Credit Situation in Asia.APO,1984
[32]Stiglitz,J.and A.Weiss.Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information.American Economic Review,71(3),June,1981:393-410
[33]冯兴元,何梦笔(德),何广文.试论中国农村金融的多元化——种局部知识范式视角.中国农村观察,2004,(5):17-29
[34]Hayek,F.A..Economics and Knowledge.In:Economica,1937,Vol.4(Feb):33-54
[35]Hayek,F.A..The Use of Knowledge in Society.American Economic Review,ⅩⅩⅩⅤ,September,1945,No.4:519-530
[36]Hayek,Friedrich August von.The Socialist Calculation Ⅱ:The State of the Debate.In:Friedrich August von Hayek(Ed.).Individualism and Economic Order.Chicago:Chicago University Press,1948:148-180.
[37]Hayek,Friedrich August yon.Der Wettbewerb als Entdeckungsverfahren.in:derselbe,Freiburger Studien-Gesammelte Aufsaetze,Tuebingen,S.,1968/1969:249-265
[38]Wyn Grant and Amine MacNamara.the Relationship between Bankers and Farmers:an Analysis of Britain and Ireland.Journal of rural studies,1996,Vol12, No.4: 429-437
[39]Brian P.Cozzarin. Organizational Structure in Agricultural Production Alliances. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 1998, Vol.1, No.2
[40]Korotoumou Ouattara and Douglas H.Graham. Caisses Villageoises and Credit Unions: Lessons from Client-Owned Microfinance Organizations in West Africa. Economics and Sociology Occasional Paper No.2523 USAID Microfinance Best Practices Case Study, 1998
[41]Hans D.Seibel. Rural Finance: Mainstreaming Informal Finance Istitutions. Journal of Development Entrepreneurship Periodical, 2001
[42]Shahidur R.Khandker and Rashid R. Faruqee. the Impact of Farm Credit in Pakistan. Agriculture Ecnomics, 2003, 28: 197-213
[43]Kellees.Tsai. Imperfect Substitutes: The Local Political Economy of informal Finance and Microfinance in Rural China and India, World Development Vol.32, No.9, pp. 1487-1507,2004
[44]Mire Devaney and Bill Weber. Local Characteristics, Contestability, and the Dynamic Structure of Rural Banking: a Market Study, the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Fall, 1995, Vol.35, No.3: 271-287
[45]Mark Drabenstott and Larry Meeker. Financing Rural America, A Conference Summary, Economic Review , 1997 , Second Quarterly: 90-98
[46]Timothy J.Besley. Household participation in formal and informal institutions in rural credit markets in developing countries: evidence from Nepal. World Development Report 2001 /2002, 2001 -05, Version3.1
[47]Shahidur R. Khandker. The Impact of Farm Credit in Pakistan. Agricultural Ecomonics, 2003, 28: 197
[48]Signe-Marry MeKernan, Mark M.Pitt and David Moskowitz. Use of the Formal and Informal Financial Sectors: Does Gender Matter? Empirical Evidence from Rural Bangladesh. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper3491, 2005-01
[49]Claudio G.Vega.Macro Economic Policy and Reality Deepening Rural Financial Markets:Macroeconomic,Policy and Political Dimensions,Paving the way Forward for Rural Finace.an international Conference on Best Practices,Working Paper,2003
[50]何广文.中国农村经济与金融转型和农村金融机构多元化.中国的农村金融和信贷组织基础,2003OECD巴黎研讨会,2003-10
[51]韩俊.在中国农村创造良好的投资环境:现状和前景.中国的农村金融和信贷组织基础,2003OECD巴黎研讨会,2003-10
[52]Jacob Yaron.在建立健全的农村金融机构过程中政府职能的转变.中国农村金融与信贷实施研讨会,2003OECD巴黎研讨会,2003-10
[53]Jacob Yaron,McDonald Bemjamin and Stephanie Charitonenko.Promoting Efficient Rural Financial Intermediation.The World Bank Research Observer,1998,8,Vol.13,No.2:147-170
[54]Stephanie Charitonenko and Anita Campion.Expanding Commercial Microfinance in Rural Areas:Constraints and Opportunities,Paving the Way Forward:A International Conference on Best Practices in Rural Finance.Washington Conference,2003,6
[55]Jacob Yaron.What Makes Rural Finance Institutions Successful?.The World Bank Observer,1994,9(1):49-71.
[56]Zeller M,G.Schrieder,J.Von Braun,F.Heidhues.Rural Finance and Food Security for the Poor:Concept,Review and Implications for Research and Policy.Food Policy Research,Washington D.C:International Food Policy Research Institute,1997
[57]Johan F.M.Swinnen and Hamish R.Gow.Agricultural Credit Problems and Policies during the Transition to a Market Economy in Central and Eastern Europe.Food Policy,1999,Vol.24:21-47
[58]叶兴庆.论我国农村金融抑制与金融深化.当代金融导刊,1998,(3):8-10
[59]乔海曙.农村经济发展中的金融约束及解除.农业经济问题,2001,(3):19-23
[60]谢平.中国农村信用合作社体制改革的争论.金融研究,2001,第1期
[61]曹力群.当前我国农村金融市场主体行为研究.金融论坛.2001.(5):6-11
[62]曹力群.农村金融改革与农户借贷行为研究.中国农村研究,2001,(2)
[63]高帆.我国农村中的需求型金融抑制及其解除.中国农村经济,2002,12
[64]马晓河,蓝海涛.当前我国农村金融面临的困境与改革思路.中国金融,2003,(11)
[65]何志雄.解决农村供给型金融抑制有效途径.http://www.sannong.gov.cn,2003-11-25
[66]黄卫红.中国农村融资问题与金融抑制、金融深化关系研究.农村经济,2006,(5)
[67]殷本杰.金融约束:新农村建设的金融制度安排.中国农村经济,2006,第6期
[68]何大安,丁芳伟.中国农村金融市场化非均衡推进现象分析.中国农村经济,2006,第6期
[69]程漱兰.中国农村发展:理论和实践.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999
[70]阎庆民,向恒.农村合作金融产权制度改革研究.金融研究,2001,第7期
[71]岳志.从金融交易成本看合作金融制度的效率.财经科学,2001,(6)
[72]温铁军.农村合作基金会的兴衰:1984—1999.晏阳初乡村建设学院乡村建设学习参考资料(内部资料),2004
[73]温铁军.我国农村普遍发生高利贷的问题、情况与政策建议.晏阳初乡村建设学院乡村建设学习参考资料(内部资料),2004
[74]张晓山,何安耐.农村金融转型与创新.山西:山西经济出版社,2002
[75]党国英.农信社产权改革的方向.证券时报,2004-7-11
[76]陆磊.以行政资源和市场资源重塑三层次农村金融服务体系.金融研究,2003,(6)
[77]冯兴元.农村金融不能靠一条腿走路,需多元化发展.中国金融网,2004-10-13
[78]张杰.解读中国农贷制度.金融研究,2004,(2):1-8
[79]温铁军.农户信用与民间借贷研究—农户信用与民间借贷课题主报告.中国经济信息网50人论坛 http://forum50.cei.gov.cn,2001-06-07
[80]温铁军.市场失灵+政府失灵双重困境下的三农问题.读书,2001,(10):22-29
[81]杜朝运.制度变迁背景下的农村非正规金融研究.农业经济问题,2001,(3):23-27
[82]郭沛.中国农村非正规金融规模估算.中国农村观察,2004,(2):21-25
[83]林毅夫.后发优势与后发劣势—与杨小凯教授商榷.经济学季刊,2003,第2卷第4期(总第8期)
[84]林毅夫,刘明兴.中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配.世界经济,2003,第8期。
[85]林毅夫,孙希芳.信息、非正规金融与中小企业融资.经济研究,2005,第7期
[86]张军.改革后中国农村的非正规金融部门:温州案例.中国社会科学季刊,1997,(秋季刊)
[87]江春.我国民间信用中的产权问题.经济科学,1998,第1期
[88]张建军,袁中红,林平.从民间借贷到民营金融:产业组织与交易规则.金融研究,2002,(10):11-25
[89]谢平.当前我国农村金融研究综述.第三届中国金融论坛,2004-06
[90]姜旭朝.中国民间金融研究.济南:山东人民出版社,1996
[91]彭川西,罗润,王琼等.对我国农村金融问题的现实思考.金融研究,2001,第1期
[92]韩俊.推进农村金融体制的整体改革.中国金融,2003,第17期
[93]白钦先.中国农村金融体制改革的战略性重构重组与重建.中国金融,2004,(12)
[94]章奇.中国农村金融现状与政策分析.北京大学中国经济研究中心网站,2004-02-05
[95]茅于轼.农村金融改革的重点是放开政府管制.搜狐财经网,2004-02-11
[96]官兵.中国农村金融改革的制度解释.农业经济问题,2005,第10期
[97]姚耀军,和丕禅.中国农村金融发展与经济增长(1978—2001)实证分析.西北农林科技大学学报,2004,11月
[98]姚耀军.中国农村金融发展水平及其金融结构分析.中国软科学,2004,第11期
[99]张杰,尚长风.我国农村正式与非正式金融的分离与融合.经济体制改革,2006,第4期
[100]张晨.农村信用社产权制度改革的目标、构架及实施步骤.上海金融,2002,第9期
[101]徐海恩.农村信用社金融风险调查.财金贸易,1999,第9期
[102]杨明炜.农信社改革试点方案浮出水面.中国经济时报,2003-07-08
[103]郭晓鸣,雷晓明.二十世纪末我国农村金融发展.农村经济文稿,1998:24-34
[104]谢家智,冉光和.中国农村金融制度变迁的路径依赖.农业经济问题,2000,第5期
[105]张荔,田岗.制度变迁中的农信社再造与信贷风险再生—社员冷漠、信贷配给与农村经济效率损失.财贸经济,2006,第2期
[106]何广文.合作金融组织的制度性绩效探析.中国农村经济,1999,第2期
[107]徐滇庆.农村金融改革与民营银行.当代财经,2004,第9期
[108]徐滇庆.制度创新与农村金融改革.武汉金融,2004,第9期
[109]何广文,冯兴元,李莉莉.论农村信用社制度创新模式和路径选择.中国农村信用合作,2003,第8期
[110]周小川.关于农村金融改革的几点思路.经济学动态,2004,第8期
[111]张元红.增强农村金融体系服务三农的能力.中国社会科学院院报,2007-02-27
[112]王君.中国农信社改革须激励兼容.中国金融网,2004-10-12
[113]陆磊.农信社的改革模式需要改革.金融信息参考,2004,第3期
[114]李莹星,汪三贵.农村信用社缘何热衷“转贷”.调研世界,2005,第1期
[115]易宪容.农信社改革:花钱能否买到机制?.中国经济网,2005-1-19
[116]沈明高.省级信用联社的垄断是在酝酿道德风险.中国金融网,2004-10-14
[117]冯文丽.中国农业保险制度变迁研究.北京:中国金融出版社,2004
[118]谢家智,鲜明.国外农业保险发展对我国的启示.农村经济.2003,第7期
[119]冯冠胜,黄祖辉.美国农业灾害保险的革新及对我国的启示.技术经济,2003,第11期
[120]王悦欣.补齐农业这块“短板”.人民日报(海外版),2003-12-15:第八版
[121]成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究(第二集).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008年
[122]张新光.论再造农村市场经济的微观基础和基层民主权威.社会科学,2007年,第四期:79-86
[123]冯海发,李激.农业剩余与工业化发展.当代经济科学,1993,(6):12-18
[124]周立.中国各地区金融发展与经济增长(1978-2000).北京:清华大学出版社,2004年:第179页
[125]阿西夫·.道拉,迪帕尔·巴鲁阿.穷人的诚信(朱民译).北京:中信出版社2007:5
[126]奥利维尔·琼·布兰查德,斯坦利·费希尔.宏观经济学(高级教程,刘树成、沈利生、钟学义等译).北京:经济科学出版社,1998:654
[127]杨继绳.墓碑—中国六十年代大饥荒纪实.香港:香港天地图书公司,2008
[2]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济分析史(第三卷,朱泱,易梦虹,李宏等译).北京:商务印书馆,1996:223-238
[3]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论—对于利润、资本、信贷、利息和经济周期的考察(何畏 易家详 张军扩等译).北京:商务印书馆,1990:中译本序言,第三章
[4]戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展(周朔,郝金城,肖远企,谢德麟译).上海:上海三联书店,1994
[5]爱德华·肖.经济发展中的金融深化(邵伏军,许晓明,宋先平译).上海:上海三联书店,1988
[6]麦金农.经济发展中的货币与资本(卢骢译).上海:上海三联书店,1997
[7]麦金农.经济市场化的次序—向市场经济过渡时期的金融控制(周庭煜,尹翔硕,陈中亚译).上海:上海三联书店,1997
[8]Gurley,John G.and Shaw,Edward S.Financial Aspects of Economic Development.American Economic Review,September 1955,45(4):515-38
[9]西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长(常勋译).北京:商务印书馆,1999
[10]亚当·斯密.道德情操论(谢宗林译).北京:中央编译出版社,2008
[11]本杰明·M·弗里德曼.经济增长的道德意义(李天有译).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008
[12]魏克塞尔.利息与价格(蔡受百,程伯撝译).北京:商务印书馆,1959
[13]McKinnon,Ronald I.Money and Capital in Economic Development.Washington,DC:Brookings Institution,1973
[14]King,R.G.and R.Levine.Finance and Growth:Schumpeter Might Be Right.Quarterly Journal of Economics.1993,108
[15]King,Robert G.and Levine,Ross.Finance,Entrepreneurship,and Growth:Theory and Evidence.J.Monet.Econ.,Dec.1993,32(3):513-542
[16]Beck,Thorsten and Levine,Ross.Industry Growth and Capital Allocation:Does Having a Market-or Bank-Based System Matter? Journal of Financial Economics,May 2002,64(2):147-180
[17]Bekaert,Geert,Harvey.Campbell R.and Lundblad,Christian T.Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth? NBER Working Paper No.8245,National Bureau of Economic Research,April 2001
[18]King,Robert G.and Levine,Ross.Finance,Entrepreneurship,and Growth:Theory and Evidence.J.Monet.Econ.,Dec 1993,32(3):513-542
[19]Demirg(u|¨)c-Kunt,A.and R.Levine.Bank-based and market-based financial systems:Cross-country comparisons.World Bank,mimeo,1999
[20]Demirg(u|¨)c-Kunt,Asli and Levine,Ross.Financial Structure and Economic Growth:A Cross-Country Comparison of Banks,Markets,and Development.Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,2001
[21]Demirg(u|¨)c-Kunt,Asli and Maksimovic,Vojislav.Law,Finance,and Firm Growth.Journal of Finance,December 1998,53(6):2107-37
[22]Rajan,R.G.and L.Zingales.Financial systems,industrial structure,and growth.Mimeo.,1999a
[23]Rajan,R.G.and L.Zingales.The great reversals:The politics of financial development in the twentieth century.Forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics,2002
[24]Rajan,Raghuram G.and Zingales,Luigi.Financial Dependence and Growth.American Economic Review,June,1998
[25]滋维·博迪,罗伯特·默顿.金融学(欧阳颖,贺书捷,李振坤等译).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000
[26]刘易斯.经济增长理论(周师铭、沈丙杰、沈伯根译).北京:商务印书馆, 1983
[27]约翰·格利,爱德华·肖.金融理论中的货币(贝多广译).上海:上海三联书店,1988
[28]Patrick,H.T..Financial Policies and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries.Economic Development and Cultural Change,1966(1)
[29]Levine,R..Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda.Journal of Economics Literature,1997(35):688-726
[30]J.D.Von Pischke,Dale W Adams and Gordon Donald.Rural Financial Markets in Developing Countries.1983
[31]D.W.Adams.Why Agricultural Credit Program in Low Income Countries Perform Poorly? Farm Credit Situation in Asia.APO,1984
[32]Stiglitz,J.and A.Weiss.Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information.American Economic Review,71(3),June,1981:393-410
[33]冯兴元,何梦笔(德),何广文.试论中国农村金融的多元化——种局部知识范式视角.中国农村观察,2004,(5):17-29
[34]Hayek,F.A..Economics and Knowledge.In:Economica,1937,Vol.4(Feb):33-54
[35]Hayek,F.A..The Use of Knowledge in Society.American Economic Review,ⅩⅩⅩⅤ,September,1945,No.4:519-530
[36]Hayek,Friedrich August von.The Socialist Calculation Ⅱ:The State of the Debate.In:Friedrich August von Hayek(Ed.).Individualism and Economic Order.Chicago:Chicago University Press,1948:148-180.
[37]Hayek,Friedrich August yon.Der Wettbewerb als Entdeckungsverfahren.in:derselbe,Freiburger Studien-Gesammelte Aufsaetze,Tuebingen,S.,1968/1969:249-265
[38]Wyn Grant and Amine MacNamara.the Relationship between Bankers and Farmers:an Analysis of Britain and Ireland.Journal of rural studies,1996,Vol12, No.4: 429-437
[39]Brian P.Cozzarin. Organizational Structure in Agricultural Production Alliances. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 1998, Vol.1, No.2
[40]Korotoumou Ouattara and Douglas H.Graham. Caisses Villageoises and Credit Unions: Lessons from Client-Owned Microfinance Organizations in West Africa. Economics and Sociology Occasional Paper No.2523 USAID Microfinance Best Practices Case Study, 1998
[41]Hans D.Seibel. Rural Finance: Mainstreaming Informal Finance Istitutions. Journal of Development Entrepreneurship Periodical, 2001
[42]Shahidur R.Khandker and Rashid R. Faruqee. the Impact of Farm Credit in Pakistan. Agriculture Ecnomics, 2003, 28: 197-213
[43]Kellees.Tsai. Imperfect Substitutes: The Local Political Economy of informal Finance and Microfinance in Rural China and India, World Development Vol.32, No.9, pp. 1487-1507,2004
[44]Mire Devaney and Bill Weber. Local Characteristics, Contestability, and the Dynamic Structure of Rural Banking: a Market Study, the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Fall, 1995, Vol.35, No.3: 271-287
[45]Mark Drabenstott and Larry Meeker. Financing Rural America, A Conference Summary, Economic Review , 1997 , Second Quarterly: 90-98
[46]Timothy J.Besley. Household participation in formal and informal institutions in rural credit markets in developing countries: evidence from Nepal. World Development Report 2001 /2002, 2001 -05, Version3.1
[47]Shahidur R. Khandker. The Impact of Farm Credit in Pakistan. Agricultural Ecomonics, 2003, 28: 197
[48]Signe-Marry MeKernan, Mark M.Pitt and David Moskowitz. Use of the Formal and Informal Financial Sectors: Does Gender Matter? Empirical Evidence from Rural Bangladesh. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper3491, 2005-01
[49]Claudio G.Vega.Macro Economic Policy and Reality Deepening Rural Financial Markets:Macroeconomic,Policy and Political Dimensions,Paving the way Forward for Rural Finace.an international Conference on Best Practices,Working Paper,2003
[50]何广文.中国农村经济与金融转型和农村金融机构多元化.中国的农村金融和信贷组织基础,2003OECD巴黎研讨会,2003-10
[51]韩俊.在中国农村创造良好的投资环境:现状和前景.中国的农村金融和信贷组织基础,2003OECD巴黎研讨会,2003-10
[52]Jacob Yaron.在建立健全的农村金融机构过程中政府职能的转变.中国农村金融与信贷实施研讨会,2003OECD巴黎研讨会,2003-10
[53]Jacob Yaron,McDonald Bemjamin and Stephanie Charitonenko.Promoting Efficient Rural Financial Intermediation.The World Bank Research Observer,1998,8,Vol.13,No.2:147-170
[54]Stephanie Charitonenko and Anita Campion.Expanding Commercial Microfinance in Rural Areas:Constraints and Opportunities,Paving the Way Forward:A International Conference on Best Practices in Rural Finance.Washington Conference,2003,6
[55]Jacob Yaron.What Makes Rural Finance Institutions Successful?.The World Bank Observer,1994,9(1):49-71.
[56]Zeller M,G.Schrieder,J.Von Braun,F.Heidhues.Rural Finance and Food Security for the Poor:Concept,Review and Implications for Research and Policy.Food Policy Research,Washington D.C:International Food Policy Research Institute,1997
[57]Johan F.M.Swinnen and Hamish R.Gow.Agricultural Credit Problems and Policies during the Transition to a Market Economy in Central and Eastern Europe.Food Policy,1999,Vol.24:21-47
[58]叶兴庆.论我国农村金融抑制与金融深化.当代金融导刊,1998,(3):8-10
[59]乔海曙.农村经济发展中的金融约束及解除.农业经济问题,2001,(3):19-23
[60]谢平.中国农村信用合作社体制改革的争论.金融研究,2001,第1期
[61]曹力群.当前我国农村金融市场主体行为研究.金融论坛.2001.(5):6-11
[62]曹力群.农村金融改革与农户借贷行为研究.中国农村研究,2001,(2)
[63]高帆.我国农村中的需求型金融抑制及其解除.中国农村经济,2002,12
[64]马晓河,蓝海涛.当前我国农村金融面临的困境与改革思路.中国金融,2003,(11)
[65]何志雄.解决农村供给型金融抑制有效途径.http://www.sannong.gov.cn,2003-11-25
[66]黄卫红.中国农村融资问题与金融抑制、金融深化关系研究.农村经济,2006,(5)
[67]殷本杰.金融约束:新农村建设的金融制度安排.中国农村经济,2006,第6期
[68]何大安,丁芳伟.中国农村金融市场化非均衡推进现象分析.中国农村经济,2006,第6期
[69]程漱兰.中国农村发展:理论和实践.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999
[70]阎庆民,向恒.农村合作金融产权制度改革研究.金融研究,2001,第7期
[71]岳志.从金融交易成本看合作金融制度的效率.财经科学,2001,(6)
[72]温铁军.农村合作基金会的兴衰:1984—1999.晏阳初乡村建设学院乡村建设学习参考资料(内部资料),2004
[73]温铁军.我国农村普遍发生高利贷的问题、情况与政策建议.晏阳初乡村建设学院乡村建设学习参考资料(内部资料),2004
[74]张晓山,何安耐.农村金融转型与创新.山西:山西经济出版社,2002
[75]党国英.农信社产权改革的方向.证券时报,2004-7-11
[76]陆磊.以行政资源和市场资源重塑三层次农村金融服务体系.金融研究,2003,(6)
[77]冯兴元.农村金融不能靠一条腿走路,需多元化发展.中国金融网,2004-10-13
[78]张杰.解读中国农贷制度.金融研究,2004,(2):1-8
[79]温铁军.农户信用与民间借贷研究—农户信用与民间借贷课题主报告.中国经济信息网50人论坛 http://forum50.cei.gov.cn,2001-06-07
[80]温铁军.市场失灵+政府失灵双重困境下的三农问题.读书,2001,(10):22-29
[81]杜朝运.制度变迁背景下的农村非正规金融研究.农业经济问题,2001,(3):23-27
[82]郭沛.中国农村非正规金融规模估算.中国农村观察,2004,(2):21-25
[83]林毅夫.后发优势与后发劣势—与杨小凯教授商榷.经济学季刊,2003,第2卷第4期(总第8期)
[84]林毅夫,刘明兴.中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配.世界经济,2003,第8期。
[85]林毅夫,孙希芳.信息、非正规金融与中小企业融资.经济研究,2005,第7期
[86]张军.改革后中国农村的非正规金融部门:温州案例.中国社会科学季刊,1997,(秋季刊)
[87]江春.我国民间信用中的产权问题.经济科学,1998,第1期
[88]张建军,袁中红,林平.从民间借贷到民营金融:产业组织与交易规则.金融研究,2002,(10):11-25
[89]谢平.当前我国农村金融研究综述.第三届中国金融论坛,2004-06
[90]姜旭朝.中国民间金融研究.济南:山东人民出版社,1996
[91]彭川西,罗润,王琼等.对我国农村金融问题的现实思考.金融研究,2001,第1期
[92]韩俊.推进农村金融体制的整体改革.中国金融,2003,第17期
[93]白钦先.中国农村金融体制改革的战略性重构重组与重建.中国金融,2004,(12)
[94]章奇.中国农村金融现状与政策分析.北京大学中国经济研究中心网站,2004-02-05
[95]茅于轼.农村金融改革的重点是放开政府管制.搜狐财经网,2004-02-11
[96]官兵.中国农村金融改革的制度解释.农业经济问题,2005,第10期
[97]姚耀军,和丕禅.中国农村金融发展与经济增长(1978—2001)实证分析.西北农林科技大学学报,2004,11月
[98]姚耀军.中国农村金融发展水平及其金融结构分析.中国软科学,2004,第11期
[99]张杰,尚长风.我国农村正式与非正式金融的分离与融合.经济体制改革,2006,第4期
[100]张晨.农村信用社产权制度改革的目标、构架及实施步骤.上海金融,2002,第9期
[101]徐海恩.农村信用社金融风险调查.财金贸易,1999,第9期
[102]杨明炜.农信社改革试点方案浮出水面.中国经济时报,2003-07-08
[103]郭晓鸣,雷晓明.二十世纪末我国农村金融发展.农村经济文稿,1998:24-34
[104]谢家智,冉光和.中国农村金融制度变迁的路径依赖.农业经济问题,2000,第5期
[105]张荔,田岗.制度变迁中的农信社再造与信贷风险再生—社员冷漠、信贷配给与农村经济效率损失.财贸经济,2006,第2期
[106]何广文.合作金融组织的制度性绩效探析.中国农村经济,1999,第2期
[107]徐滇庆.农村金融改革与民营银行.当代财经,2004,第9期
[108]徐滇庆.制度创新与农村金融改革.武汉金融,2004,第9期
[109]何广文,冯兴元,李莉莉.论农村信用社制度创新模式和路径选择.中国农村信用合作,2003,第8期
[110]周小川.关于农村金融改革的几点思路.经济学动态,2004,第8期
[111]张元红.增强农村金融体系服务三农的能力.中国社会科学院院报,2007-02-27
[112]王君.中国农信社改革须激励兼容.中国金融网,2004-10-12
[113]陆磊.农信社的改革模式需要改革.金融信息参考,2004,第3期
[114]李莹星,汪三贵.农村信用社缘何热衷“转贷”.调研世界,2005,第1期
[115]易宪容.农信社改革:花钱能否买到机制?.中国经济网,2005-1-19
[116]沈明高.省级信用联社的垄断是在酝酿道德风险.中国金融网,2004-10-14
[117]冯文丽.中国农业保险制度变迁研究.北京:中国金融出版社,2004
[118]谢家智,鲜明.国外农业保险发展对我国的启示.农村经济.2003,第7期
[119]冯冠胜,黄祖辉.美国农业灾害保险的革新及对我国的启示.技术经济,2003,第11期
[120]王悦欣.补齐农业这块“短板”.人民日报(海外版),2003-12-15:第八版
[121]成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究(第二集).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008年
[122]张新光.论再造农村市场经济的微观基础和基层民主权威.社会科学,2007年,第四期:79-86
[123]冯海发,李激.农业剩余与工业化发展.当代经济科学,1993,(6):12-18
[124]周立.中国各地区金融发展与经济增长(1978-2000).北京:清华大学出版社,2004年:第179页
[125]阿西夫·.道拉,迪帕尔·巴鲁阿.穷人的诚信(朱民译).北京:中信出版社2007:5
[126]奥利维尔·琼·布兰查德,斯坦利·费希尔.宏观经济学(高级教程,刘树成、沈利生、钟学义等译).北京:经济科学出版社,1998:654
[127]杨继绳.墓碑—中国六十年代大饥荒纪实.香港:香港天地图书公司,2008