“环太湖经济圈”经济增长与水环境质量关系研究
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摘要
随着经济的发展,人类与资源环境利用之间的矛盾和问题越来越突出。水资源,作为基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源,是人类的生命之源、经济和社会发展的命脉,但是,由于人口的不断膨胀,经济的迅速发展,水资源受到了越来越多的污染和破坏。目前我国水资源面临的形势非常严峻,七大水系中,劣V类水质的断面超过1／5。水资源短缺、水环境恶化等问题已对中国的可持续发展造成了巨大压力,水的问题已成为制约中国经济社会可持续发展和中国未来发展的战略性问题。太湖流域是我国水环境污染问题比较突出的地区之一。改革开放以来,随着太湖流域经济的迅速发展和过快的人口增长,经济发展和环境保护失衡的情况日益加剧。目前太湖水质平均已经接近三类水,近30%的水面为四类水,大部分入湖河道劣于五类。如何保持太湖流域经济可持续发展,解决环太湖经济增长与水环境污染之间的矛盾是我们亟待解决的课题之一。本文以“环太湖经济圈”为区域研究对象,主要研究环太湖经济圈经济增长(国民经济生产总值、工农业增加值和人口)对太湖水环境质量的影响,并验证了太湖水环境质量的库兹涅茨曲线。
论文的第一章主要介绍了本次研究的目的、意义、研究方法以及国内外研究综述等,第二章和第三章主要介绍研究区域的经济发展和太湖的水环境质量演变过程。
第四章是本文的核心,是关于环太湖经济圈经济增长对太湖水环境质量影响的定量分析。通过建立多元线性回归模型,分析了环太湖经济圈1999年至2008年的GDP、工农业增加值以及人口的增长与太湖水环境质量演变之间的内在关系,其中太湖水环境质量指标的选取主要是高锰酸盐指数(COD_(Mn))、总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)以及叶绿素a(Chla),分析发现,1999～2008年期间农业增加值(AGR)和总人口(POP)对水质指标COD_(Mn)、TP和叶绿素a的影响效果是显著的；TN的社会经济影响因子主要是工业总产值(IND),工业废水带来的点源污染对TN的贡献最大。另外,本文还验证了太湖水环境质量的库兹涅茨曲线假设,分析结果显示,目前环太湖经济圈经济发展与太湖水环境质量之间的关系处于EKC的上升区,并将要接近拐点阀值。
第五章是本文的总结部分,针对本文研究结果,提出了相应的建议方针。
With development of economy, contradictions and problems between human and environment resources usage become more and more prominent. Water resources, as the basis of natural resources and strategic economic resources, is the source of human life and the lifeblood of industry and agriculture, However, due to the ever-expanding population and rapid economic development, water pollution increase rapidly. At present, the situation of China's water resources is very severe and in China's seven major water systems, poor water quality of the V-section is more than 1/5. Water issues such as water shortages, water environmental degradation has caused tremendous pressure to sustainable development of China. Water issue has become a strategic issue of constraining China's economic and social sustainable development and the development of China. Taihu Lake area is one of China's prominent water pollution areas.
Since reform and opening up, with the rapid development and population growth of Taihu Lake area, imbalance between economic development and environmental protection is increasing. At present, the average water quality of Taihu Lake has been close to levelⅢ, nearly 30%of the water is levelⅣ, most of the river flow into the lake is poor than levelⅤ. How to maintain sustainable economic development in Taihu Lake area, to solve the contradiction between economic growth and the Taihu Lake water pollution is one of the tasks to be settled urgently. In this paper, "Economic Circle around Taihu Lake" is the object, try to find the economic growth's (GDP of the national economy, the added value of industry and agriculture and population) influence of the quality of the water environment in Taihu Lake, and verify the economic circle around Taihu Lake water environment's Kuznets curve hypothesis.
The first chapter chiefly introduces the purpose of this study, meaning and research methods, as well as research summary at home and abroad. Chapters II and III mainly introduces the study area's economy and evolution of the status quo of water pollution in Taihu Lake.
Chapter IV is the core of this paper. It contains the empirical analysis as well as the discussion of empirical results in this article. Through the number of economic models to analyze the intrinsic relationship between GDP, the added value of industry and agriculture, as well as population growth and environmental quality in Taihu Lake of the economic zone around Taihu Lake from 1999 to 2008. Taihu Lake water quality of the environment indexes are permanganate (CODMn), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN) and chlorophyll a (Chla),among these indexes, the permanganate (CODMn) are the main water quality indexes, total phosphorus.The analysis found that during 1999 to 2008 the agricultural added value (AGR) and the total population (POP) have significant effect impact on the water quality indexes CODMn, TP and chlorophyll a; TN main influence factor of socio-economy is industrial output value (IND), industrial wastewater pollution caused largest contribution to the TN. In addition, the article also verified the quality of the water environment in Taihu Lake's Kuznets curve hypothesis, the results of the analysis show that the economic zone around Taihu Lake now is in the EKC increaseing area, and is going to close the inflexion.
Chapter V is a summary part of this article, put forward approach to the results of this study.
论文的第一章主要介绍了本次研究的目的、意义、研究方法以及国内外研究综述等,第二章和第三章主要介绍研究区域的经济发展和太湖的水环境质量演变过程。
第四章是本文的核心,是关于环太湖经济圈经济增长对太湖水环境质量影响的定量分析。通过建立多元线性回归模型,分析了环太湖经济圈1999年至2008年的GDP、工农业增加值以及人口的增长与太湖水环境质量演变之间的内在关系,其中太湖水环境质量指标的选取主要是高锰酸盐指数(COD_(Mn))、总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)以及叶绿素a(Chla),分析发现,1999～2008年期间农业增加值(AGR)和总人口(POP)对水质指标COD_(Mn)、TP和叶绿素a的影响效果是显著的；TN的社会经济影响因子主要是工业总产值(IND),工业废水带来的点源污染对TN的贡献最大。另外,本文还验证了太湖水环境质量的库兹涅茨曲线假设,分析结果显示,目前环太湖经济圈经济发展与太湖水环境质量之间的关系处于EKC的上升区,并将要接近拐点阀值。
第五章是本文的总结部分,针对本文研究结果,提出了相应的建议方针。
With development of economy, contradictions and problems between human and environment resources usage become more and more prominent. Water resources, as the basis of natural resources and strategic economic resources, is the source of human life and the lifeblood of industry and agriculture, However, due to the ever-expanding population and rapid economic development, water pollution increase rapidly. At present, the situation of China's water resources is very severe and in China's seven major water systems, poor water quality of the V-section is more than 1/5. Water issues such as water shortages, water environmental degradation has caused tremendous pressure to sustainable development of China. Water issue has become a strategic issue of constraining China's economic and social sustainable development and the development of China. Taihu Lake area is one of China's prominent water pollution areas.
Since reform and opening up, with the rapid development and population growth of Taihu Lake area, imbalance between economic development and environmental protection is increasing. At present, the average water quality of Taihu Lake has been close to levelⅢ, nearly 30%of the water is levelⅣ, most of the river flow into the lake is poor than levelⅤ. How to maintain sustainable economic development in Taihu Lake area, to solve the contradiction between economic growth and the Taihu Lake water pollution is one of the tasks to be settled urgently. In this paper, "Economic Circle around Taihu Lake" is the object, try to find the economic growth's (GDP of the national economy, the added value of industry and agriculture and population) influence of the quality of the water environment in Taihu Lake, and verify the economic circle around Taihu Lake water environment's Kuznets curve hypothesis.
The first chapter chiefly introduces the purpose of this study, meaning and research methods, as well as research summary at home and abroad. Chapters II and III mainly introduces the study area's economy and evolution of the status quo of water pollution in Taihu Lake.
Chapter IV is the core of this paper. It contains the empirical analysis as well as the discussion of empirical results in this article. Through the number of economic models to analyze the intrinsic relationship between GDP, the added value of industry and agriculture, as well as population growth and environmental quality in Taihu Lake of the economic zone around Taihu Lake from 1999 to 2008. Taihu Lake water quality of the environment indexes are permanganate (CODMn), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN) and chlorophyll a (Chla),among these indexes, the permanganate (CODMn) are the main water quality indexes, total phosphorus.The analysis found that during 1999 to 2008 the agricultural added value (AGR) and the total population (POP) have significant effect impact on the water quality indexes CODMn, TP and chlorophyll a; TN main influence factor of socio-economy is industrial output value (IND), industrial wastewater pollution caused largest contribution to the TN. In addition, the article also verified the quality of the water environment in Taihu Lake's Kuznets curve hypothesis, the results of the analysis show that the economic zone around Taihu Lake now is in the EKC increaseing area, and is going to close the inflexion.
Chapter V is a summary part of this article, put forward approach to the results of this study.
引文
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[2]游德才.国内外对经济环境协调发展的研究进展：文献综述[J].上海经济研究,2008,(5)：3-14
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[4]王庆晓,崔玉泉,张延港.环境和能源约束条件下的内生经济增长模型[J].山东大学学报(理学版),2009,2：53-55
[5]朱行保.环境污染：经济增长的极限——EKC理论综述与模型分析[J].沿海企业与科技,2008,(8)：32-35
[6]何一农,胡适耕.环境污染、内生人口增长与经济增长模型[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2004,9：114-116
[7]李善同,刘勇.环境与经济协调发展的经济学分析[J].经济研究参考,2002,(6)：5-12
[8]陈祖海.环境与经济协调发展的再认识[J].地域研究与开发,2004,8：21-24
[9]蔡林,高速进.环境与经济综合核算的系统动力学模型[J].环境工程学报,2009,5：941-946
[10]岳书敬,刘富华.环境约束下的经济增长效率及其影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009,(5)：94-105
[11]胡聃,许开鹏,杨建新,刘天星.经济发展对环境质量的影响——环境库兹涅茨曲线国内外研究进展[J].生态学报,2004,6：1260-1264
[12]陆静超.济增长理论的沿革与创新——评新古典增长理论与新增长理论[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2004,9：94-98
[13]陈长安,张丽,张惠芬.水环境承载力的研究进展[J].水利科技与经济,2008,5：389-393
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