新疆城乡经济差异评价、预测及预警研究
摘要
改革开放以来,我国城乡经济社会的发展取得了令世界瞩目的成绩,但城乡矛盾仍然突出。1997年以后,我国城乡差异呈现出扩大趋势。党的十六届六中全会将缩小城乡差异作为新农村建设的硬目标,促进城市与农村更加和谐。如果城乡差距过大,尤其是经济差距过大,不仅影响到国民经济快速健康发展,而且影响到社会安定和政治稳定。
城乡差距问题,通常在经济落后地区表现得更为充分。大量事实也表明,新疆城乡社会经济发展中不仅存在较大差距,并且这种差距还有继续加速扩大的趋势。如果任其发展,不仅影响新疆全面建设小康社会战略目标的实施,而且势必影响全国社会长治久安的大局。新疆是一个多民族聚居的省区,而且绝大多数少数民族居住在广大的农村地区,因此,处理好新疆城乡差异问题,尤其是居民收入和消费差异,就有着特殊的政治、经济和社会意义。
本文的选题正是基于上述背景,包括以下内容:
首先,概括介绍了本文的研究背景、研究思路、研究方法及创新之处,总结了国内外城乡经济差异理论与实践研究,及城乡经济差异研究的方法论,接着,研究了新疆城乡经济差异的变化,新疆与全国城乡经济差异变动比较,及城乡经济差异扩大带来的影响。并借鉴前人的研究成果,通过计量模型和方法找出新疆城乡经济差异的原因。然后对新疆城乡经济差异变化趋势进行预测,通过预测模型和方法对新疆经济差异变化的趋势进行预测和分析;在前面分析的基础上,运用经济预警理论,提出城乡经济差异预警。分析城乡差异警情,实证研究了新疆城乡经济差异的警情状态进行判定和对未来的警情进行预报。最后提出新疆城乡经济差异警戒状态下的政策调控,及缩小新疆城乡经济差距的对策建议。
本论文研究目的是为新疆城乡经济的健康、持续、协调发展提出有针对性、可操作性的政策建议,为新疆经济社会的和谐发展提供科学依据。
Since reform and opening up, China's urban and rural economic and social development have made noteworthy achievements of the world, but urban and rural areas is still a conspicuous contradictions. After 1997, China's urban and rural differences emerged expanding trend. The Six Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee of CPC (the Communist party of China) will be reduced areas differences of urban and rural in the construction of a new hard target, and promote more harmonious urban and rural areas. If the urban-rural gap is too wide, especially in the economic gap, affecting not only rapid and healthy development of national economy, but also affects social and political stability.
The gap between urban and rural areas, usually in the more economically backward areas performs larger. A large number of facts also show that urban and rural social and economic development in Xinjiang not only exists in the larger gap, and that gap still continues to accelerate the trend of expansion. If this goes, it will not only affect Xinjiang comprehensive strategic goal of the implementation of building a well-off society, but also is bound to affect the overall situation of the long-term social stability. Xinjiang is a multi-ethnic populated provinces, but the vast majority of ethnic minorities living in the vast rural areas, and properly handle the differences between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, especially residents difference between income and consumption, it has a special political, economic and social significance .
Based on the above background, this paper includes the following content:
First, this paper introduces a broad research background, ideas, innovation and methods such as, summed up the difference between the rural and urban economy at home and abroad study on theory and practice, and its economic research methodology. Second, study Xinjiang of the economic disparities in urban and rural areas, the urban-rural gap in Xinjiang changes in the economy compared with the national, and bringing the impact growing differences between urban and rural areas, and analysis the economic differences between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang factor through econometric model and methods to identify Xinjiang for differences between the urban and rural economy based on the previous research results. Third, through the prediction model and methods for Xinjiang's economic differences changing trends forecasts and analysis and use economic early warning theory, differences between urban and rural economic and early warning, and. analysis alert situation of urban and rural differences, economic differences between urban and rural areas of Xinjiang forecast and determine the state of alert situation. Finaly, alert policy under control in the results of the study on the basis of differences in the rural and urban economy of Xinjiang
This paper purpose of the study is to the health of urban and rural economy in Xinjiang, sustained, coordinated development a targeted, workable policy recommendations for Xinjiang's economic and social development of harmony to provide a scientific basis.
城乡差距问题,通常在经济落后地区表现得更为充分。大量事实也表明,新疆城乡社会经济发展中不仅存在较大差距,并且这种差距还有继续加速扩大的趋势。如果任其发展,不仅影响新疆全面建设小康社会战略目标的实施,而且势必影响全国社会长治久安的大局。新疆是一个多民族聚居的省区,而且绝大多数少数民族居住在广大的农村地区,因此,处理好新疆城乡差异问题,尤其是居民收入和消费差异,就有着特殊的政治、经济和社会意义。
本文的选题正是基于上述背景,包括以下内容:
首先,概括介绍了本文的研究背景、研究思路、研究方法及创新之处,总结了国内外城乡经济差异理论与实践研究,及城乡经济差异研究的方法论,接着,研究了新疆城乡经济差异的变化,新疆与全国城乡经济差异变动比较,及城乡经济差异扩大带来的影响。并借鉴前人的研究成果,通过计量模型和方法找出新疆城乡经济差异的原因。然后对新疆城乡经济差异变化趋势进行预测,通过预测模型和方法对新疆经济差异变化的趋势进行预测和分析;在前面分析的基础上,运用经济预警理论,提出城乡经济差异预警。分析城乡差异警情,实证研究了新疆城乡经济差异的警情状态进行判定和对未来的警情进行预报。最后提出新疆城乡经济差异警戒状态下的政策调控,及缩小新疆城乡经济差距的对策建议。
本论文研究目的是为新疆城乡经济的健康、持续、协调发展提出有针对性、可操作性的政策建议,为新疆经济社会的和谐发展提供科学依据。
Since reform and opening up, China's urban and rural economic and social development have made noteworthy achievements of the world, but urban and rural areas is still a conspicuous contradictions. After 1997, China's urban and rural differences emerged expanding trend. The Six Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee of CPC (the Communist party of China) will be reduced areas differences of urban and rural in the construction of a new hard target, and promote more harmonious urban and rural areas. If the urban-rural gap is too wide, especially in the economic gap, affecting not only rapid and healthy development of national economy, but also affects social and political stability.
The gap between urban and rural areas, usually in the more economically backward areas performs larger. A large number of facts also show that urban and rural social and economic development in Xinjiang not only exists in the larger gap, and that gap still continues to accelerate the trend of expansion. If this goes, it will not only affect Xinjiang comprehensive strategic goal of the implementation of building a well-off society, but also is bound to affect the overall situation of the long-term social stability. Xinjiang is a multi-ethnic populated provinces, but the vast majority of ethnic minorities living in the vast rural areas, and properly handle the differences between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, especially residents difference between income and consumption, it has a special political, economic and social significance .
Based on the above background, this paper includes the following content:
First, this paper introduces a broad research background, ideas, innovation and methods such as, summed up the difference between the rural and urban economy at home and abroad study on theory and practice, and its economic research methodology. Second, study Xinjiang of the economic disparities in urban and rural areas, the urban-rural gap in Xinjiang changes in the economy compared with the national, and bringing the impact growing differences between urban and rural areas, and analysis the economic differences between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang factor through econometric model and methods to identify Xinjiang for differences between the urban and rural economy based on the previous research results. Third, through the prediction model and methods for Xinjiang's economic differences changing trends forecasts and analysis and use economic early warning theory, differences between urban and rural economic and early warning, and. analysis alert situation of urban and rural differences, economic differences between urban and rural areas of Xinjiang forecast and determine the state of alert situation. Finaly, alert policy under control in the results of the study on the basis of differences in the rural and urban economy of Xinjiang
This paper purpose of the study is to the health of urban and rural economy in Xinjiang, sustained, coordinated development a targeted, workable policy recommendations for Xinjiang's economic and social development of harmony to provide a scientific basis.
引文
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8引自《中国青年报》2002年11月1日
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2刘光远、綦群高等,新疆城乡社会经济发展失调及原因分析[J],华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2005(3)
3张式恩、令伟锋,城乡人力资本差距的收敛与经济增长[J],湖北经济学院学报(人文社会科学版),2007(2)
5郝寿义等.区域经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社.1999:100-101.
6顾海兵、赵林榜.我国粮食预警指标体系构想[J].开发研究,1998(4)
顾海兵.宏观经济预警研究:理论、方法、历史[J].经济理论与经济管理,1997(4)
7我国城乡居民收入差距的基本特征与趋势http://www.jxstj.gov.cn/tjfx/yjck/200412070001.htm
8引自《中国青年报》2002年11月1日
蔡昉,城乡收入差距与制度变革的临界点[J],中国社会科学,2003(5).
蔡继明,中国城乡比较劳动生产力与相对收入差别[J],经济研究,1998(1).
蔡云辉,试论西部地区的城乡统筹发展问题[J],陕西理工学院学报(社会科学版),2007(2).
柴富成殷超王新萍,新疆城乡二元经济结构实证分析[J],新疆农垦经济,2007(8)
柴富成,新疆城乡统筹发展刍议[J],石河子大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(2).
陈德峰,对社会经济转型期新疆城乡关系的思考[J],实事求是,2005(1).
陈栋生,城乡协调发展与西部大开发[J],开发研究,2006(6).
陈宗胜,经济发展中的收入分配[M],上海:三联书店上海分店,1991.
陈宗胜,中国居民收入分配差别的深入分析[J],经济研究,2000(7).
戴宏伟等著,城乡统筹与县域经济发展[M],北京:中国市场出版社,2005.
傅崇兰主编,城乡统筹发展研究[M],北京:新华出版社,2005.
高岗仓,新疆城乡二元结构的特征与对策研究[J],兵团教育学院学报,2006(3).
高志刚等著,新疆区域经济差异与预警系统研究[M],乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版,2003.
郭宁、崔卫峰,关于新疆城乡人口素质差距的思考[J],兵团教育学院学报,2007(3)
郭宁、唐海军,科学发展观视野下新疆城乡协调发展问题研究[J],石河子大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006(3).
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